Mid-Season Top 15 Prospects

by kstanz41 on Jul 18, 2011 7:15 PM EDT

This is my Top 15 prospects for the Arizona Diamondbacks here at the halfway point. This list WILL include 2011 draft picks that I think will sign. Stats are as of July 15, 2011.

1. Trevor Bauer, RHP - 13-2, 1.25 ERA, 136.2 IP, 73 H, 36 BB, 203 K (College)

The 2011 Golden Spikes award winner as the top collegiate player put up some gaudy stats this spring and shouldn't need too much work in the minors. I don't think he will be as instantaneously successful as Tim Lincecum was in the majors but the comparisons are fair. He should lead what looks to be a very talented pitching staff in a couple years for Arizona.

2. Jarrod Parker, RHP - 8-6, 4.22 ERA, 81 IP, 69 H, 40 BB, 69 K (AA)

Ignore the high walk totals. Some struggles should be expected after Tommy John surgery and Parker had a rough month of April. Yet he still has some of the most electrifying stuff in the minors and has dominated so far in July. At his best him and Bauer are interchangeable at the top spot on this list and D'Backs fans should expect Parker in Arizona at some point next year.

Find the rest of the Top 15 here at Diamond Prospects.

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Comments

Not sure

I’d put Meo and Chafin that high yet. But that’s just me. I think Corbin rates above both of those.

by sonic barracuda on Jul 18, 2011 8:36 PM EDT reply actions

Normally I would agree with you and put the player who has already pitched professionally first…however I think Chafin and especially Meo won’t need much time in the minors.

http://dugoutprospects.blogspot.com

by kstanz41 on Jul 18, 2011 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't have Chafin that high at the moment

But I kind of like it… his upside is something that only can be matched by the big 4 arms of the system.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 19, 2011 3:51 AM EDT up reply actions

not sure if Chafin's upside is that high

he’s basically a #3 starter projection right? one plus pitch (slider?) slightly above average fastball from the left side and then averagish pitch (changeup?)

by blue bulldog on Jul 19, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Nope

Upside of #2, plus slider, plus FB from left side (hitting 95 as a lefty? yes, please). It’s just a matter of whether or not the change-up can be an average pitch, it seems.

Of course, he wouldn’t be the first former college guy to see his stuff regress mightily in pro ball if that were to take place.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 19, 2011 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

i’ve said this before, but Chafin sounds like Wade Miley 2.0.

that being said, not sure velo is enough to consider it plus. i mean, Corbin can hit 95 mph as a lefty too, but i don’t hear scouts saying it’s a plus fastball (at least, i’ve never really heard it described as plus. not 100% sure about this)

by blue bulldog on Jul 19, 2011 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Whoaaaaaaaa

Miley came out of college throwing 87-90. Chafin came out of college throwing 91-95. HUGE difference.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 20, 2011 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions

didn't follow baseball at that :(

i just assumed Miley came out of college throwing low 90s

by blue bulldog on Jul 20, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

And 95 mph for a lefty

Is definitely plus velocity. The reason why Corbin isn’t projected to be a 2 or 3 is that he never had a plus pitch before, so it’s still just 1, so that’s probably a #3/#4, closer to a #4.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 20, 2011 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions

nah

every scout at BA will say that one plus pitch with average command (which Corbin presumably shows) will be a #3 projection

not that they haven’t said that about Corbin. their only profile on Corbin was an article written by Magruder i think.

by blue bulldog on Jul 20, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

With the wide range of velos on his FB

I think it’s somewhere between above-average and plus. Mostly because he sits in both ranges… so #3/#4 makes sense to me as a rough guess.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 21, 2011 4:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Big fan of Chafin?

Or a not-so-big fan of Goldschmidt?

"We're concentrating on fallin' apart
We were contenders, now throwin' the fight
I just wanna believe, I just wanna believe in us."
-Brand New, probably singing about the Diamondbacks

by Jdub220 on Jul 18, 2011 9:11 PM EDT reply actions

More a big fan of Chafin. Has potential to be a #2 starter but I think Goldschmidt’s bat is legit contrary to some “experts”. He does scare me a little defensively though.

http://dugoutprospects.blogspot.com

by kstanz41 on Jul 18, 2011 9:13 PM EDT reply actions

Hmmm,

from what I’ve seen (which is not a whole lot, I’ll admit) he’s below average, but not into “scary” territory IMO.

I know nothing about Chafin, but I’m curious, does he have a third pitch to go along with the fastball and slider?

"We're concentrating on fallin' apart
We were contenders, now throwin' the fight
I just wanna believe, I just wanna believe in us."
-Brand New, probably singing about the Diamondbacks

by Jdub220 on Jul 18, 2011 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Won’t be a plus pitch but it should be good enough to keep righties honest and complement his fastball/slider combo

http://dugoutprospects.blogspot.com

by kstanz41 on Jul 18, 2011 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions

What

is the third pitch?

"We're concentrating on fallin' apart
We were contenders, now throwin' the fight
I just wanna believe, I just wanna believe in us."
-Brand New, probably singing about the Diamondbacks

by Jdub220 on Jul 19, 2011 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Change-up

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 19, 2011 3:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Thanks.

"We're concentrating on fallin' apart
We were contenders, now throwin' the fight
I just wanna believe, I just wanna believe in us."
-Brand New, probably singing about the Diamondbacks

by Jdub220 on Jul 19, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions

I think I'd put

Miley and Brewer in the top 15. It’s fun having such a stocked farm system.

Wear your own fur.

by Marc Fournier on Jul 18, 2011 9:45 PM EDT reply actions

Patrick Corbin is way under valued

He averages over 8 strikeouts per 9 and walks fewer than 2 per 9. Plus he is only 21 with a good fastball that could gain velocity.

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Jul 19, 2011 2:10 AM EDT reply actions

supposedly the fastball velo

is good enough already. i think he sits 92-93 and can touch the mid-90s with the fastball in starts, so scouts like him.

i do think he should be striking out more hitters though, and i wonder if his offspeed is not at the level where he can do that. anyway, there are plenty of pitchers who put up numbers similar to Pat Corbin and end up as nobodies, so i’m not incredibly excited yet. his being a lefty will help a lot though, when it comes to being able to stick in the back of a rotation.

by blue bulldog on Jul 19, 2011 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions

He sits over a shockingly wide range, according to BA and Kevin Towers

BA said 90-95, Towers said 90-96. I imagine that’s him adding and subtracting as he needs.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 19, 2011 3:53 AM EDT up reply actions

I wonder if his reported weight has changed?Most sites have him at 165 lbs at 6'3

Most reports say his fastball has gained some steam this year. Towers said 91-96! ah yea I’ll take that from a 21-22 who will probably gain velocity in the next couple years.

He might have average secondary pitches but so does Joe Saunders and Joe doesn’t have that velocity. So I think he has decent upside and would expect him to be as good if not better than a back end starter.

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Jul 19, 2011 3:52 AM EDT reply actions

I do think it's hard to make an argument for Holmberg over Corbin right now

Just looking at those two, Corbin’s not a ton older, is a level higher, is succeeding at Double-A (Holmberg’s seen some rough sailing at Hi-A, though I’m certainly far from worried right now), has a far more projectable body, and already boasts a similar arsenal. Holmberg’s gotten the buzz for his utter dominance of the MWL, but that’s what guys with his level of polish are supposed to do. He’s a good arm, but is getting overrated for my tastes.

Can’t say I agree with the Eaton and Cowgill ratings, but I also can’t say I’m surprised to see them here. Eaton’s just two spots away for me, but Cowgill’s ten spots later. Can’t buy into him until I see it done at the majors. It’s a cop-out, I know, but Reno is just too easy to hit at. This system’s 25-strong in my view (with a few interesting sleepers after that tier), and Cowgill’s the last one included in that group.

Overall, great work. Interesting sleeper choice, going with a 2011 draftee. Goodness knows we could use a second base prospect.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 19, 2011 4:07 AM EDT reply actions

agreeing with you is no fun :(

but yeah, i think that scoreless inning streak is getting Holmberg overrated. he’s another one of those prospects that i’d package in a trade, if we could somehow get someone to overpay for Holmberg

by blue bulldog on Jul 19, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions