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Diamondbacks Farm Round-Up 7/16: Rested Edition

Slept in until 1:30 p.m. Saturday morning, so I'm actually not writing this while falling asleep.  A solid day on the farm for the full-season squads, as Reno, Mobile, Visalia, and South Bend combined to go 3-1 on the day, though the Short-Season squads that were in action were swept.  I was tempted to give today's award to the Silver Hawks' starter, who turned in a great performance, but it's hard to pass over a two-homer game, and that's exactly what we saw at Hi-A Visalia Saturday night.

Snakelet of the Day:

Alfredo Marte (Hi-A): 2-5, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, K

Star-divide

Triple-A: Reno 8, Colorado Springs 6.  (56-36)  A typically wild and woolly affair in the PCL, as the two starters combined to give up nine runs in ten combined innings of work.  On the mound for Reno was Gaby Hernandez, who was the better of the two starters by giving up just four runs in his stint, though he struck out just one batter and walked five.  No idea how he pieced together an outing with fewer runs allowed than innings pitched with that kind of K:BB ratio.  Offensively, Hernandez helped his own cause with a double, while David Winfree and Cody Ransom chipped in triples and Tony Abreu hit his ninth home run of the year.  Bryan Shaw was given a night off from his typical closing duties, so Kam Mickolio notched his fifth save of the year for Reno with a one-run ninth.

Double-A: Mobile 2, Chattanooga 5.  (55-38)  Mobile's typically-potent offense had a bit of an off-day, although they managed their fair share of extra-base hits.  Your Daily Goldschmidt doubled (and walked), Taylor Harbin tripled, and A.J. Pollock cranked a a solo home run, his sixth homer of the year.  Pollock has been white-hot lately, posting a .953 OPS over his last ten games and showing off impressive power, with a .611 slugging over that span (.278 ISO).  His season line is now up to a nice .306/.357/.444 on the year, an .801 OPS in the pitcher-friendly Southern League.  Unfortunately, the BayBears didn't time their power particularly well, and Wes Roemer had yet another poor outing, allowing five runs (four earned) - all of which came in the fifth inning - in six innings, posting a 5:3 K:BB ratio and allowing a pair of long-balls to the Lookouts.  Back in a relief role, Kyler Newby was impressive in his two innings, striking out five and allowing just two hits.

Hi-A: Visalia 9, Stockton 3.  (42-50)  Visalia jumped on the Ports early, giving Rawhide starter Derek Eitel a six-run lead before he even took the mound, thanks to first-inning home runs from Bobby Borchering and Alfredo Marte, the latter of whom would go on to crank a second home run in the fifth inning.  David Nick added a pair of doubles, while Keon Broxton, Rossmel Perez, and Chris Owings each chipped in additional doubles.  Broxton and Perez each had three-hit games, while Matt Davidson reached three times on a single and two walks.  Eitel struggled with his control in his six-inning start, but held Stockton to three runs on a 3:4 K:BB ratio and an 11:3 GO:AO ratio.

Low-A: South Bend 5, Wisconsin 4.  (42-49)  The power bats were on display early in this game, as South Bend built up a 4-0 lead by the middle of the second inning.  First-inning home runs from Yazy Arbelo - who reached base four times - and Raywilly Gomez built the initial cushion, while a sixth-inning solo shot from Matt Helm - his second in as many games - provided what proved to be a crucial insurance run.  Roberto's Rodriguez and Ortiz each added extra-base knocks as well - a triple for the former and a double for the latter.  Bradin Hagens had an excellent start, building a cushion that the bullpen couldn't blow (despite its valiant efforts to) by allowing just one run in seven solid innings, posting a fantastic 7:2 K:BB ratio and equally-remarkable 12:1 GO:AO ratio.  An all-around dominant effort from Hagens.

Short Season-A: Yakima 3, Salem-Keizer 5.  (10-19)  Starter Alex Capaul was impressive in five innings on the mound, striking out four and posting 11 ground-ball outs with just one walk and one fly-ball out, allowing only one run.  Unfortunately, John Pedrotty came on in relief and allowed four runs, though just two earned, in his three innings of work, struggling with some control issues.  Offensively, Raul Navarro had a two-RBI triple for the Bears, while Carter Bell and Kerry Jenkins each chipped in doubles to try to stir up some extra offense, though it proved to not be enough.

Advanced-Rookie: Missoula 3, Idaho Falls 7.  (15-11)  It wasn't a good night for 2010 third-round pick Robby Rowland, who allowed five runs, all earned, in four innings of work with a 3:2 K:BB ratio and a home run allowed.  For those worried about the 5.10 ERA 2010 second-rounder J.R. Bradley is putting up as an 18/19-year-old in Low-A, Rowland's 7.71 mark for the Osprey at 19 years old has to be at least slightly more concerning, though at least Rowland has posted a 20:4 overall K:BB ratio.  Still, Rowland put the Osprey in a deficit they couldn't climb out of, particularly since Missoula's offense generated just a single extra-base hit on Saturday, a double from Ryan Court.

Low-Rookie: The AZL club wasn't in action on Saturday, though word has it that J.J. Putz will throw in Sunday's AZL game.  Should be fun to hear the stories of what the prankster Putz does to the largely young, culture-shocked Latin American AZL roster.

DSL: D-backs 6, Padres 8.  (14-27)  18-year-old Ranfy Vargas hasn't taken long to make a solid impression in the DSL since his debut on Thursday, as a 2-3 night with a double, a rare DSL home run, and a walk appears to give the DSL D-backs a legitimate power bat in their lineup to compliment table-setters like Yorman Garcia and Ronny Mejias.  19-year-old outfielder Michael Gonzalez added a double and a walk to the D-backs' efforts, though the pitching didn't quite hold up, partially thanks to four unearned runs allowed.

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Right?!

Kid is still just 22 years old, perfectly appropriate for his league. Yeah, it’s the Cal, but he’s got an .880 OPS there (small sample size noted). Certainly an improvement upon the .632 OPS he put up for the BayBears, though in more sporadic playing time (more games played, fewer plate appearances).

A few more walks would be nice, though.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 17, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm worried about the approach

More than I’m worried about the bat.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 11:39 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I wonder if they might move Bobby Borchering or Matt Davidson to 2b

since they are still young and we don’t have any decent 2b prospects. KT might trade one of those guys and I’m cool with that. Especially when you consider that Ryan Wheeler is having a good season.

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Jul 17, 2011 2:55 PM EDT reply actions  

No way

Neither of those guys is nearly agile enough for a middle-of-the-diamond position. 2B prospects are pretty rare, really. Every now and then you’ll have a Johnny Giovatella, Jemile(/Ricky) Weeks, or Kolten Wong, but most 2B are just bat-heavy SS prospects that can’t stick at the position defensively. Like Derek Jeter should have been, for example.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 17, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was just thinking

because the Nats are going to move Rendon to 2b most likely

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Jul 17, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

in the case of Rendon

he’s a plus defender at 3B partially because his range is pretty damn good. that’s why he’s able to move to 2B.

in the cases of Davidson and Borchering, their weakness at 3B is because of range and not arm strength. basically, infielders who have SS arms but not SS range tend to get moved to 3B. infielders who have SS range but not SS arms tend to get moved to 2B.

by blue bulldog on Jul 17, 2011 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rendon's athletic enough to handle it

Though I personally wouldn’t do it with the surgeries he’s had on his ankles. Seems like a death trap to get people trying to take him out on DPs at second base….

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 17, 2011 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

in that case

I think Chris Owings will move to 2b

"When I get sad, I stop getting sad and be AWESOME instead. TRUE STORY."

by txzona on Jul 17, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

if this happens

will be a little concerned. i’m not convinced Owings has a good enough bat to move to 2B and still be a good prospect.

by blue bulldog on Jul 17, 2011 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

He definitely does.

He has been terrible lately, but he’s one of the youngest players in the league. If he were two years older (about to turn 22) and utterly demolishing the league, would these concerns exist? Of course not. His bat is his biggest strength.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 17, 2011 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

not sure what you are seeing that makes it seem like he has a good enough bat to stick at 2B

he has shown no plate discipline, so we’re looking at 5% BB rates in the majors

the contact rates are pretty bad, even last year when he was doing alright

the power is good, but even so, he’ll max out at 20 HR a year

he’s not going to put up monster offensive numbers in the majors. by your argument, basically any one who is extremely under age in a league will have a bright future, which just isn’t true. i like Owings. i think he’s a pretty decent prospect. but a lot of his value is tied into the fact that he is projected to play an averagish SS.

by blue bulldog on Jul 18, 2011 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Contact rates

Are not a concern because, once again, he’s been young for his levels his entire career! Even last year, when he was doing alright, he was one of the youngest players in the MWL.

Remember when there were no signs that Parra could ever be decent offensively? ARL’s are magic with hitters.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

again though

you can make an argument for EVERY underage hitter in the Cal League then

my point is you lack the counterfactual. you are assuming that if he was age appropriate he would be dominating.

by blue bulldog on Jul 18, 2011 3:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

When there are scouting reports that have been consistently favorable

I’m willing to give a guy time to iron out his inconsistencies and possibly repeat a level. It’s not good that he’s struggling, but I’m just saying it’s not the end of the world, and with the reports as good as they are, the huge concern about his bat isn’t so huge.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 3:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

i haven't read any scouting reports

on chris owings this year….where are you reading them?

by blue bulldog on Jul 18, 2011 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

In his minor league career

746 PA, 23 BB, 162 K

ARL or not, that’s terrifying.

by paqs on Jul 18, 2011 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Don't you think

That if the organization were truly terrified, they’d have sent him back to South Bend? Where he would still be two years below the average age?

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 11:53 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I'm not saying the org is terrified

I am. His overall numbers last year were still good.

by paqs on Jul 18, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

owings remains a prospect because last years numbers (albeit in only half a season) were good.

but there’s no way you can look at this year’s numbers (i’m still waiting on updated scouting reports) and actually think that Owings improved his stock. if last year, he’s a Top 125 kinda guy, then including new draftees, other guys moving up, and probably a slight downgrade on Owings, he’s more like a Top 150 kinda guy now.

by blue bulldog on Jul 18, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not saying he upped his stock

Just that he’s still the same plus-bat type up-the-middle guy he was last year.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 1:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Isn't that what we're worried about here?

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 5:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I'm worried about him today

If the plate discipline doesn’t improve, his ceiling is Tony Abreu

by paqs on Jul 18, 2011 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

So basically, you're worried today

Because you’re not sure what will happen tomorrow with a minor-league prospect. Sounds like… every teenage prospect ever.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

To me is sounds more like he is concerned about

plate discipline, which doesn’t automatically improve with age. A legitimate point, don’t you think?

"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan

by xmet on Jul 18, 2011 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Prospects that have awesome seasons in the minors

have tons of question marks.

Prospects that are struggling or have giant flaws are a different thing entirely.

by paqs on Jul 19, 2011 6:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

How true, and to not be concerned

about them would be more than a slight oversight.

"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan

by xmet on Jul 19, 2011 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Lots of reports from a year ago

About Owings being one of the best players in the MWL before getting hurt. Nick P’s mid-season list may have spoken highly of him too, IIRC.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 11:55 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

exactly

all the reports are from a year ago

no news so far this year, and a lot can change fast. look at Borchering. a year ago the reports said “silky smooth swing from the left side, and bad mechanics from the right side”. now, Sickels says that his plate discipline and mechanics look horrible from the left side.

by blue bulldog on Jul 18, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nick P?

Make do with what we have. No reports doesn’t just mean no new good reports, it also means no new bad reports.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 1:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

If they move anywhere

It’s first base or corner outfield

by paqs on Jul 18, 2011 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dan

Will Cowgill and Pollock be given the same chance to compete in Spring Training next year or is AJ still a ways out?

by Husk on Jul 17, 2011 4:36 PM EDT reply actions  

you know

i’m probably in the minority on this…..

but i would love for us to let Pollock go to AAA late this year and early next year, and go nuts (because he probably will) and then trade him away to a team willing to overpay

by blue bulldog on Jul 17, 2011 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sounds nice in theory

To have some mysterious dumb team always around to overpay for guys.

Much harder to do in practice, particularly with the reputation Reno is building for itself.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 17, 2011 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Still a crazy idea

To plan that a team will overpay for someone.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

nah

i was joking

i do think we should shop Pollock though. let’s see how Eaton does the rest of the year in AA. or shop Eaton. i don’t really care which. just trade whichever one will fetch us a better price, though I sort of prefer shopping Pollock because Eaton’s age will make him tag up perfectly with CY leaving.

by blue bulldog on Jul 18, 2011 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't

Pollock’s on a tear. He can actually play center field – note that Pollock is playing CF over Eaton every day at Mobile. That in itself says a lot. Eaton can step in and help in the uneasy waters of our LF position, as I’m always extremely skeptical of guys who post UZR seasons as absurdly-high as what Parra’s currently on pace to do. Those seasons just don’t repeat themselves very often (Franklin Gutierrez, anybody?), and while Parra is good offensively this year, I wouldn’t be surprised if he regressed. If not, Eaton could always make a nice fourth outfielder, although it would be great if he were a RHH. Alas. Really, Eaton’s the one that doesn’t fit.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 3:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

wait are you being serious?

i actually think the fact that he’s a left-hander is a bonus for him. CY and Upton are RH outfielders, and we’re pretty weak when it comes to LHH in our farm.

of course Pollock’s playing centerfield. what does that say if the FO takes Pollock off of CF after moving Eaton up, considering that Pollock was a 1st rounder basically a year ago (since he got knocked out one full year for injury).

Eaton played CF full time when he was at Visalia, so clearly the FO believes he has the ability to play CF as well. once Pollock moves up (and hopefully he moves up soon, because that probably means we’ve put Cowgill on our bench) i expect Eaton to move back to CF for Mobile. if he doesn’t at that point, then i’ll worry more about position.

you do realize Eaton is not even 23 yet in AA right? he gets on base (though i do wonder how long of a career he will have, continuing to get hit like he does), doesn’t strikeout as often as Pollock, and steals bases. i don’t see either Eaton or Pollock having higher than a 100 ISO at the majors, so based on all that, it’s hard for me to justify why people think Eaton is so much worse. in fact, the fact that soooo many scouts think Eaton is so much worse than Pollock should be an arbitrage opportunity we try to take advantage of.

by blue bulldog on Jul 18, 2011 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

not really

scouts have a formula in their mind for success. they don’t deviate from that formula, because it doesn’t make sense for them to do so from a professional standpoint.

to a scout, short guys just aren’t meant to have success. but that’s just not true. it’s rare but it happens. the point is trying to find when short guys actually do end up having success. with Eaton, ARL and his peripherals seem to indicate that he has a pretty decent shot, despite being short.

by blue bulldog on Jul 18, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Plenty of short guys have success

But most of them are utility guys .. that’s nothing to get excited about.

by paqs on Jul 18, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't trade another prospect

For a “pretty decent shot.”

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 12:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

why?

all prospects are “pretty decent shots”…

i’m sort of curious, what do you think are the various potential WAR distributions and the probabilities of their outcome for Eaton and Pollock respectively?

by blue bulldog on Jul 18, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly

So why start trading them away now?

I think Pollock can be a 2-2.5 CF, and Eaton… 1.5-2 in a corner? I like the bat a bit more, but the positional adjustment is a knock and I don’t think he translates quite as smoothly.

Totally different players.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 1:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

But CY and Upton don't need platoons

And shouldn’t be platooned under any circumstances. Parra could be platooned. Thus, the RHH fits better.

The team is going to do what’s best for the future, not adhering to some silly draft-cover-up scheme, particularly since we have an entirely new regime in charge of the system. These guys gain nothing by making choices just to make draft picks from 2009 look good. The reality is that Pollock’s a better center fielder. According to scouts and the logic of Mobile’s lineup construction.

I freaking love Eaton, but he’s a corner guy. I don’t want to move either one. They’re not identical guys and they won’t fill identical holes. Saying there’s an “arbitrage” opportunity here assumes identical goods, which is blatantly wrong.

Pollock and Eaton could both put up ISOs closer to .120.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 12:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

i really think you're overrating prospects

and saying there’s an arbitrage opportunity doesn’t assume identical goods at all. saying there’s an arbitrage opportunity just assumes someone overvalues some commodity.

obviously lots of value judgments in place. i don’t think Pollock will turn into anything special. i think a lot of other people think like you do. i think you overvalue Pollock.

if any of those above assumptions end up wrong, well, then i guess i’d be on the wrong side of the arbitrage :)

as for the platoon point, i don’t really care about platooning. i don’t think there’s that much of an effect on platooning. nobody really platoons in the majors anymore anyway, and what commentary that exists out there seems to think that platooning is overrated anyway (sort of like how optimizing batting order is overrated…in that both have minimal impacts on your win probability)

my point is more that our bats are RH heavy, both in the majors and minors. i want some good left-handed hitting prospects, and Eaton is one of the better ones in our system.

by blue bulldog on Jul 18, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pure arbitrage is guaranteeing profit

By trading identical goods for different prices.

We need LHH infielders (although i’m aware that this is rather contradictory). Not seeing how Eaton and Parra fit together.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 12:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

they don't

obviously one will go. like you said, i’m wary of UZR boosted WAR values, which is why I still don’t see Parra as a long-term fixture on this team.

by blue bulldog on Jul 18, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

103 wRC+ is too good

For us to shop now w/o waiting to see if regression occurs. granted, Eaton needs another half year or more in the minors anyways.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 1:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

fine fine

be nitpicky about defining arbitrage

you’re overlooking the bigger point though. what we care about (or presumably, what i think we should care about) is how much some commodity is getting overvalued/undervalued

by blue bulldog on Jul 18, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

But we don't have another CF guy

On the farm that I’d be comfortable with. Why move Pollock when he’s our only real CFer this side of Keon Broxton? His position makes him that much more valuable to us, even if you think he’s overrated overall. Arizona has clearly always believed that Pollock could play CF, or they’d have moved him to second base after drafting him.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 1:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Just one thing

I don’t know where you read that platooning is not significant .. it can be used to great effect ..

Say you have two left fielders, equal defensively, the lefty hits righties something like +15 runs above average per 600 PA and hits -15 runs vs lefties, and the other is the same vice versa.

So lets say your lefty gets 600 PA, 400 of them against righties for a +10 and 200 vs lefties for a -5. So you have a +5 hitter. If your righty plays every day, by the same math he’s a -5 hitter.

But a platoon gets you +15 runs, which is an added win above replacement. Now obviously this is oversimplified, but there are plenty of hitters who mash opposite handed pitchers and struggle against same handed guys.

I read an article by MGL or Tango where they said a guy like Granderson (back when the consensus was he couldn’t hit LHP) is more valuable because he can be platooned. I can’t find it now though.

by paqs on Jul 18, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

They'll probably compete for a bench spot, yeah.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 17, 2011 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Any idea why FO is low on him, well minus the age?

Who’s our 4th outfielder with Jup, CY and Parra next season?

by Husk on Jul 18, 2011 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Age

And Aces Ballpark.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think a C+ is low on Cowgill

He’s not a top-15 guy, but I really think that that shouldn’t be a surprise…

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

I may have phrased that last bit incorrectly...

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 1:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

i dunno

i think guys with the OBP skills that Cowgill has, along with the SB ability and great contact rates, he’s a B- prospect for me

he’s also got reasonable pop (projected 10 HR in the majors) and at least according to scouts preseason had averagish defense all around the outfield

by blue bulldog on Jul 18, 2011 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

This dude had an .825 OPS in Mobile a year ago as a 24-year-old

That’s just really not good. If the average is .280 instead of frickin’ .357, which it had never been in his career before he hit the PCL, and you adjust his OBP and SLG each down by .070 (this basically is BABIP-adjusting, and kindly assuming that only singles are taken away from Cowgill’s line), he’s a .280/.360/.480 hitter this year. That’s an .840 OPS, which is much closer to his career levels of production in the minors. MLE-translating those numbers to the majors basically gets you a bench bat. Add in his age, and I’m not buying potential to be a regular player. That average is just a gigantic PCL fluke, like it is with Anthony Rizzo.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

doesn't all this

just make Pollock even worse then?

and no. the difference again between Rizzo and Cowgill is the contact rate. in fact, i don’t know if you remember but i pretty much called the fact that Rizzo was going to get wrecked this year at the ’Pit, because you can tell from his contact rate and the scouting report says he has plenty of holes in his swing.

Cowgill is entirely different. the guy doesn’t have contact problems. him and Rizzo aren’t comparable at all.

by blue bulldog on Jul 18, 2011 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

It would

If Pollock were a corner guy like Cowgill is.

With a normal BABIP, Cowgill’s line translates terribly. Rizzo’s contact rate is lower, but his other peripherals are probably better (in a major league setting) to make up for it. It’s only going to get worse in the majors, too. Similar case to Rizzo.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 12:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

*shrug

positional differences definitely matter, but i’m not convinced to the extent that you think.

i’m not sure what scouts consider Pollock’s defense in center to be. let’s say, optimistically that he’s a plus defender like CY and gets like 0.5 WAR from defense. at least, out of spring training, it sounded like Cowgill was an average defender at CF. so really, do you think Cowgill’s bat can make up for the half WAR difference.

it’s probably closer than you think, is all i’m saying. again, better plate discipline, better power, better contact. and a much better base-stealer

by blue bulldog on Jul 18, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

But Cowgill's no average defender in CF

Pollock is probably around average, Cowgill is a corner man. That’s huge.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 1:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

okay

go and compare Cowgill in AA versus Pollock in AA

Cowgill has a better wRC+, showed better power, patience, and contact, and played at the league only 7 months older than Pollock is currently at the league

the only difference between the two is that Pollock was a first rounder.

maybe you’re right and Cowgill isn’t a legit prospect. but i just don’t understand why that makes Pollock a legit prospect then. he hasn’t really shown anything outstanding at AA.

by blue bulldog on Jul 18, 2011 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pollock has played exclusively in CF

Whereas Cowgill played all 3 OF positions. Organizations aren’t subtle with these things. It’s the same reason Zach Walters has played 3B, 2B, and SS this year. They see him as a utility infielder.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 12:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Don't see why Cowgill's playing all three

positions takes away from his value, he must have a decent arm to play right, and obviously has enough speed to play the other positions. If he has good fielding instincts he should do well in center. Just going by how we think scouts see a player could be somewhat suspect.

"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan

by xmet on Jul 18, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's the wrong takeaway

Positionally, teams use their better prospects in the minors the way they think they’ll be used in the majors. Cowgill playing all around the outfield means that he team wants him capable of playing all of the outfield positions, but doesn’t mind if he never gets enough consistent time at one of them to perfect it. Hence, 4th outfielder.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 5:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Or they want him to play left if the

other positions are blocked, which they are now, and/or fill one of the other spots if it becomes available. My point was that we shouldn’t ass u me why a team does things in a certain way, and I should have used that term instead of scout, who do not decide how a player is actually used.

"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan

by xmet on Jul 18, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why would they have done that in 2010 at Mobile?

Coming off of an utterly atrocious year from Chris Young, when center field looked anything but blocked? The competition at that time was freaking Ollie Linton and Evan Frey. Or how about in 2009 when he was Visalia’s everyday right fielder while Linton manned center field everyday?

In 2010, when Cowgill was joining Mobile, we had Conor Jackson – who was utterly phenomenal in 2008, and whose struggles were far more explainable than CY’s – coming back from Valley Fever as strong as ever, ready to lock down the left field spot. So why did he play all around the outfield then? If he’s going to be an everyday CFer, wouldn’t you play him exclusively at center field then? Linton was still a prospect at that time, but he quickly put that debate to rest. Why didn’t Cowgill get everyday CF repetitions at that point?

Certainly we didn’t think he would replace Chris Young yet need to platoon with Gerardo Parra first, but was still playing at all three spots regularly. That screams 4th outfielder. The team has moved Cowgill all around the outfield for his entire career, when speculating on blocked positions was foolish.

That’s the takeaway.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Who is this we I keep hearing about?

Do they have names?

"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan

by xmet on Jul 18, 2011 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Additionally,

Going clearly against what scouts say with absolutely no backing is even more suspect.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 5:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Look at the numbers across the Reno lineup

And the guys putting up those numbers. I’m not sold.

Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Jul 18, 2011 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah he's a lot better at home ecspecially slugging -

Just trying to figure who we put with Parra in Left next year…

by Husk on Jul 18, 2011 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

I like Cowgill

He would seem to be a natural platoon candidate with Parra but surprisingly he hits righties much better than lefties. Go figure. The only reason he isn’t up now (IMHO) is because Bloomquist can play SS. He probably projects closely to Bloomquist. I think he rates as a decent 4th outfielder who can fill in for an injury if needed. He’ll be given a chance next year in ST.

by sonic barracuda on Jul 18, 2011 3:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

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