Diamondbacks Farm Round-Up: May 1st

by Jim McLennan on May 2, 2011 12:01 PM EDT in Diamondbacks Farm Teams

There may have been no sweep - nowhere close - for the Diamondbacks, but their minor-league teams started May on the right foot. They won all four games, which I think is a first for 2011, when they've all played. Quite the offensive day, as we scored 36 runs, conceding 24. .

Snakelet of the Day:
Josh Ford (Double-A): 4-for-5, two 2B, 3B, 2 R, 2 RBI

Triple-A: Reno 10, Tacoma 8. Starter Kyler Newby couldn't get through three innings, allowing six hits, four walks and four runs in 2.2 frames, but the Aces offense scored six runs in the fifth. Each of their outfielders, RF Collin Cowgill, CF Cole Gillespie and RF Dave Winfree had two hits and a walk, as did DH Andy Tracy. Gillespie and C Robbie Hammock drove in two apiece. Tom Layne got the W after replacing Newby, holding the Rainiers to one run in 3.1 innings of relief, on three hits and a walk. Rafael Rodriguez worked a scoreless eighth, the only Aces pitcher to avoid allowing a run.

Double-A: Mobile 6 @ Birmingham 4. The BayBears jumped out early, scoring three times in the top of the first inning, but then watched as the Barons chipped away. After six inning, Birmingham were 4-3 up, but it was Mobile's turn to fight back. They evened things in the seventh, and a Dan Kaczrowski ground-out and A.J.Pollock single each drove in a run. C Josh Ford went 4-for-5 with three extra-base hits. Despite starting off with a run-scoring balk, Leyson Septimo got the W with 1.2 scoreless and Bryan Shaw got the save for zeroes in the eighth and ninth. Your Daily Goldschmidt: Paul had a quiet game, going 1-for-4 with a walk.

High-A: Visalia 12, Modesto 7. After letting the Nuts score three in the top of the fourth to take the lead, the Rawhide responded with a seven-spot, batting around. They took advantage of some Modesto wildness, as four of the runners who scored reached base on three walks and a HBP, but 3B Bobby Borchering also had a three-run homer. 1B Matt Davidson had the same in the previous inning, and had a three-hit night; DH Kyle Greene, C Rossmel Perez and CF Keon Broxton all reached base three times. Eric Smith had a shaky start - seven runs in 6.1 innings - though only four were earned.

A-ball: South Bend 8, Great Lakes 5. The Silver Hawks hadn't scored more than five runs in almost three weeks, so this 16-hit pounding was quite an outburst. SS Zach Walters, 3B Matt Helm and CF Ender Inciarte each contributed a trio of hits to that total, while 1B Yazy Arbelo cranked his sixth ball out of the park and also reached safely three times. He and Walters each drove in three against the Loons. David Holmberg started for South Bend, and went five innings, allowing four runs on five hits a walk. Reliever Brian Budrow earned the W, with two scoreless innings, part of four zeroes from the Silver Hawks 'pen.

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not bad for a debut for Keon Broxton

two hits and a walk, though he also had his customary strikeout….

if Paul Goldschmidt were a left-handed 1B, he’d easily be a top 25 prospect in all of baseball. as it is, i’d still be incredibly surprised if he didn’t make the top 100 list by the end of the year

by blue bulldog on May 2, 2011 12:24 PM EDT reply actions

Not so sure about the top-100 bit

Is he a top-3 or top-4 prospect for us? I don’t think so I’d still take Parker, Skaggs, Davidson, Owings, and Borch over him. That’s even without the #3 and #7 picks. We’re not a deep enough system that we’re going to have eight top-100 prospects (six currently in the system, plus the picks that will undoubtedly be top-100 guys).

As for Broxton, there’s really nothing to take away from a single game. For all we know, he could have had two grounders squeak through holes. If that were the case, that wouldn’t really be that impressive…

http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/

by Dan Strittmatter on May 2, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions

not so sure about that....

depends on how the season goes obviously (since we’re only about a fifth/sixth way through)

but Davidson/Owings/Borch’s stock should drop this year. strikeout rates that high in the minors don’t portend well, and scouts aren’t going to be willing to give them high ratings unless they see improvement in that area.

on the other hand, guys who strike out under 20% in AA while posting insane ISO’s and great BABIP have a better chance at becoming great major leaguers, if they aren’t old for their league (Goldschmidt is about league-average age, I believe)

Skaggs, Goldschmidt, our #3 and #7 picks probably have the best chance at being top-100 prospects (how many innings does it take for Parker to lose eligibility?)

by blue bulldog on May 2, 2011 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Determining rookie status:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

I survived the 2004 & 2010 seasons.

by dbacks25 on May 2, 2011 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions

hm....

yeah, Parker may still have rookie eligibility in 2012 then

this may be a stretch, but i could see us having 5 prospects in the top 100. even if we only have four though, i’d still imagine Goldschmidt making the list before our #7 pick

by blue bulldog on May 3, 2011 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions

But we're a month in

Projecting numbers now through the rest of the season is foolish. Goldy had 7 HRs in his first 12 games, just 2 in the 11 games since.

Remember Davidson’s start to 2010? Without a high BABIP, it was basically exactly what we’re seeing now.

http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/

by Dan Strittmatter on May 3, 2011 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions

HR's really don't tell the whole story at all...

I’ve said this a number of times, but I really don’t care about his HR totals at this point. Goldschmidt has monstrous power. We all know that. Even if he goes at the pace of 2 in 11 games he’s still on pace for almost 40 HR on the year in AA (full of pitcher’s parks).

Besides, why do I care if he only has 2 HR in the past ten games, if his OPS during that time is still an astounding 1.189? his ISO power in the past ten games is still at an incredible 286 (his year to date is 305). just because the power hasn’t translated into HR during the past ten games, doesn’t mean the power isn’t there.

to me, the thing I want to stress the most, is that K-rates are going to determine Goldy’s prospect status (and eventual major league success). if he has around a 20% K-rate at the end of the year, then there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be a top 100 prospect.

I guess I just believe IF Goldy can keep his K-rate around 20% for a full season this year, then he has a strong chance to be like, the next Derrek Lee or something. And in my mind, that’s definitely worthy of top 100 prospect consideration. I mean, think about it from a different standpoint. How many 1B prospects in the minors are you willing to trade Goldy for straight up? Hosmer? Belt? Montero? I’m not sure of too many others…

by blue bulldog on May 3, 2011 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions

2 HR in 11 games

If you span that out over 150 games, that’s 27 HRs. Not that great. His numbers over the past ten days or so have been increasingly BABIP-oriented. It’s not what he has done, it’s what he will do. If he keeps his K-rate that low, then he’s probably a top-100 guy, though probably near the back-end. But I don’t see how we can start this conversation on May 3.

I’d consider swinging Goldy for Singleton too, based on incredible reports.

http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/

by Dan Strittmatter on May 3, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

as for Davidson

not sure what you are referring to…are you comparing his 2010 start to his 2011 start?

because his 2010 start was horrendous…..just off the top of my head, it was like, 1 BB in all of April right? and then after that he went on an incredible tear and never looked back…

my issue with Davidson is this. the reason why ARL is such a big deal in determining prospect value, is because if a young guy is succeeding above his age level you can oftentimes expect him to improve over time. and Davidson’s month-on-month improvement when it came to plate discipline (taking walks) improved a lot last year. i expected him to be able to maintain that pace this year in Visalia (perhaps, a much too high expectation) but his plate discipline was once again lacking in April (though, to be fair, it’s improving of late). then there’s contact (strikeout rate), which is drastically worse than i expected. did not expect Davidson to have a +30% strikeout rate at this time, considering he already had a dose of Visalia last year. and again, maybe it’s an unfair expectation because of how young he is, but i want to emphasize also, that it’s beating unfair expectations that make you go “WOW! This kid is freaking awesome!” finally, his power isn’t evident yet at High-A. I think it’ll come around (he showed enough power at SB to convince me of that) but the fact remains that it hasn’t arrived yet.

All in all, I’m still pretty high on Davidson. My strongest evidence is still, that teenagers don’t tear up the Midwest League and turn into nobodies…….usually. But there’s always new information being factored into your expectations of the future, and Davidson’s early returns this year in Visalia have not done anything to help his prospect status. And if he continues to strike out at over 30%, then I’d be extremely surprised to see him ranked higher than Goldy by year end (assuming Goldy is still striking out at the 20% range).

by blue bulldog on May 3, 2011 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions

That was exactly what I was saying

His 2010 start was awful and he turned in an awesome 2010 season. Don’t dismiss the possibility of an awesome 2011 season because of an awful start to 2011.

We can make “if/then” assumptions now that may or may not be true, but why? It’s May 3.

http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/

by Dan Strittmatter on May 3, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Question..

what happened to Tyler Green and Ty Linton? When we finally signed them, they were generally seen as worthy picks, but they disappeared from my radar, and I don’t see them on bbref either.

by eel on May 2, 2011 7:41 PM EDT reply actions

their season hasn't started yet...

They will play in rookie ball which i believe starts in June. Linton was the better of the two for sure and would have gone a lot higher if not the “hard to sign” connected to him. It will be fun to see what these two do, but I am way more interested in Wagner Mateo who will join them in rookie ball

by phx suns on May 2, 2011 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions

by Jim McLennan on May 2, 2011 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Ah yes

I seem to recall that now. But where did you get that line? Baseball-reference doesn’t seem to have him yet, and Fangraphs seems to be a little behind with 19 IP.

It’s certainly encouraging to see the early results.

by eel on May 3, 2011 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions