Diamondbacks Send John Hester To Orioles To Complete Mark Reynolds Trade

by Jim McLennan on Apr 30, 2011 6:00 PM EDT in Diamondbacks News

The Arizona Diamondbacks announced today they have sent catcher John Hester to the Baltimore Orioles to complete the Dec. 6, 2010 trade in which the D-backs acquired right-handed pitchers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio for infielder Mark Reynolds, according to D-backs' Executive Vice President and General Manager Kevin Towers. Hester, 27, hit .263 (10-for-38) with 4 runs, 3 doubles, a home run and 5 RBI in 10 games with Triple-A Reno this season. He batted .220 (27-for-123) with 13 runs, 9 doubles, 3 home runs and 11 RBI in 53 games over two seasons with the D-backs.

We'd been wondering about that one since the trade went down in December. Generally, when it's a player to be named later, it's because he hasn't been in the sending team's farm system long enough to be dealt, but that's not the case for Hester. I think I speak for most Diamondbacks fans when I say, "Meh." Hester's stock had probably fallen far enough that he was now our #4 catcher in the system, with Konrad Schmidt being apparently ahead of him in line for promotion, should Henry Blanco seize up through lack of use or whatever. At age 27, Hester still has some potential value, but there's a reason why he has 53 major-league appearances and 366 minor-league ones.

As 'charmer Tweeted, it does appear to show confidence in Schmidt. He has already been getting slightly more than half of the playing time for the Reno Aces, having appeared in a dozen games to Hester's ten. But in terms of offensive production he has been clearly well ahead:
Schmidt: .380/.415/.580 = .995 OPS
Hester: ..263/326/.421 = .747 OPS
We're only talking 50 ABs for Schmidt, so small sample size applies, and in 150+ PAs last year for Reno, Hester smacked the ball at an impressive .370/.440/.667 clip.

With that out of the way, we can now really begin to analyze the value of the trade. Thanks to the suck which has been the start of Special K's time in Baltimore, so far it has leaned towards the Diamondbacks, though it's still very early days, obviously. Here are the major-league WAR value of the players involved to date in 2011:
Baltimore: Mark Reynolds (-0.4)., John Hester (0.0) = -0.4 WAR total
Arizona: David Hernandez (0.3), Kam Mickolio (-0.2) = 0.1 WAR total
To date, the D-backs have come out on top, even without considering any salary savings. Reynolds gets $5 million from the Orioles this year, $7.5 million next, and is then a free-agent, while Hernandez and Mickolio are under contract through the end of 2015.

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For what it's worth

We come out even better when using Fangraphs WAR, where Hernandez/Mickolio have given us 0.2 WAR and Reynolds/Hester have -0.6 WAR.

Yay small victories!

Rest In Peace: Me (2008-2010)

Good luck keeping your upper lip warm without MY help, Mr. Zavada.

by Zavada's Moustache on Apr 30, 2011 7:28 PM EDT reply actions

As much as I love Mark Reynolds,

I’m more than willing to be proven wrong about this trade.

HEY, FRENCHY! STAR TREK OR STAR WARS?

by DbacksSkins on May 2, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Hester wasn't good.

As much as we could have hoped he might be based on his Reno numbers. It didn’t work out for Hester, hopefully Schmidt fares better.

http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/

by Dan Strittmatter on Apr 30, 2011 9:53 PM EDT reply actions

our best catcher prospect by far in my opinion

is Rossmel Perez right now

by blue bulldog on May 1, 2011 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Head scratch.

I don’t know how to process it. I still think 2 players for 2 relievers is a tad much even if Hester isn’t in the long term plans.

Days until Aug. 18: 135

by Reynolds rapper on May 1, 2011 12:26 AM EDT reply actions

so if i give you Yuniesky Betancourt and David Eckstein

you’re telling me you’d be willing to give me Jordan Walden and Kenley Jansen??

this is way too generic of a statement. just think about where the value is at. i have to give up some value. and i’ll be getting value back. if i’m net positive, then i’m happy.

by blue bulldog on May 1, 2011 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Granted but

trading for middle relief (with no impression that either of those could be a closer) still seems silly.

Generally case by case, each needs to be evaluated I admit very carefully. I’ll also admit it’s a little more difficult for me because I tend to reject WAR as a useful stat (assumptions, especially on the offensive end are a little off as far as I’m concerned).

Days until Aug. 18: 135

by Reynolds rapper on May 1, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

really?

i think WAR is actually least useful on when it comes to pitching/fielding

it’s incredibly accurate when it comes to offense, but that’s just my opinion

also for what it’s worth, the Dbacks FO probably consider Hernandez to be our closer of the future

by blue bulldog on May 1, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

It maximizes base hits/walks (conditional offensive production)

and minimizes homeruns/RBI’s r’s (concrete production). RC/27 would be a better measure of offensive worth.

For me it’s absolutely silly to say that any iteration of Stephen Drew exceeds Tejada’s 2004 season. Yet I believe I got a 4.7 quoted for the 2004 season and Drew’s previous year got a 5.1.

The reason I get touchy about Hernandez is that the team has explicitly denied they had closer plans for him;

Days until Aug. 18: 135

by Reynolds rapper on May 1, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions

i dunno

i think wOBA is just intuitively really good (the basis of WAR for basically every WAR projection system)

for instance, you can’t use OPS because it double counts hits (a hit will be recorded in both your OBP and your SLG)

also, as for concrete production stats….don’t you think there are way too many inherent biases? a guy who bats 1st will almost never get as many RBI as the guy who bats 5th, just as the guy who bats 6th will almost never get as many R as the guy who bats 2nd?

relevant example for our team. who on our team is a better hitter than Miguel Montero? and yet he bats 8th? and at the end of the year, i’m sure his RBI or R will be lower than a worse hitter on our team (even after you factor in the fewer games due to being a catcher).

by blue bulldog on May 1, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

To some extant, I'm always going to value

runs on the board. I don’t think it is contradictory/mean/unfair/silly to say that different guys have different values to different teams under different circumstances. I have no problem saying that David Freese’s value may be different to St. Louis than to Arizona. I think with single/walk guys, their value depends on their ability to be picked up. So I guess my major objection is WAR as a universal, apples to apples comparison that transcends individual circumstances on a team.

If more WAR is always better, this lineup (not batting order) should be okay with you as each person is 4.0 WAR + in 2010

OF Gardner
OF Pagan
OF Stubbs
3B Beltre
SS Drew
2B Johnson
1B Barton
C Ruiz
DH Butler

This is a decent lineup but this would be considered by 2010 WAR standards to be far and away the best lineup in the majors at 32.0 + WAR. However, how would you construct a batting order out of this? Pitcher WAR seems to be more accurate in that I can’t do the same sort of silly rotation.

Days until Aug. 18: 135

by Reynolds rapper on May 1, 2011 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Butler and Stubbs

didn’t put up 4 WAR. If you replace Stubbs with Ryan Braun (4.2 WAR), then yes, that’s a very good lineup.

A lineup of:
Gardner
Pagan
Barton
Braun
Beltre
Butler
Drew
Johnson
Ruiz
would put up a ton of runs (and have awesome defense).

Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 41
In '11: 2

by Jdub220 on May 2, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I checked baseball ref. and they said Stubbs put up a 4.6 WAR

in 2010.http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stubbdr01-bat.shtml B.R. also said that Butler put up a 4.6.

The disagreement certainly gets to the point that any assumption that gets a Drew Stubbs or a Billy Butler above a Ryan Braun is a lousy assumption.

Even if you take out Stubbs and put in Bourn, I think you get a lineup that looks remarkably like the Real Life Astros which doesn’t seem like a 36 + WAR team.

Days until Aug. 18: 135

by Reynolds rapper on May 2, 2011 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Guess we were looking at different WAR,

although IMO, fWAR > rWAR (bbref WAR) because wOBA > OPS and UZR > TZ.

Ryan Braun is an awful fielder, that’s why he only put up 4.2 WAR. Even with Stubbs instead of Braun, that’s a solid, and very well rounded lineup.

By the way, almost everyone in that lineup (other than Butler) built their WAR numbers up by defense. Cherrypickin’…

Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 41
In '11: 2

by Jdub220 on May 3, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Remember what my claim was...

I get to cherry pick because the universal claim is “WAR always yields the right answer” so if I can find a counter instance, that renders that claim false. That’s exactly what I was claiming.

So, if you are open to a balance between defense and offense, then “man does not live on WAR alone”.

Days until Aug. 18: 135

by Reynolds rapper on May 3, 2011 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions

It's still a good

overall team but not a good overall lineup.

If I’m looking for a good lineup, I’d go with wOBA.

Justin Upton through 28 games: .283/.367/.547, 1.5 WAR.
You mad, AZCentral?

by Jdub220 on May 4, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Huh!

So they keep an over weight, out of shape, average receiver, with a below average arm, who is an “all about me” guy and a fat, out of shape, 40 yr. old, 0 for April backup, and a below average receiver, who has no clue how to call a big league game, with a bad labrum as #3. Hester had gotten caught up in the Snyder/Montero drama and was never given a chance while being the best game caller of the 3. He’ll be a backup to an Allstar in Baltimore . At least he’ll be playing big boy baseball, played by some of the best organizations in the game, managed by some of the best in the game. He seemed like a good kid. I hope he has good luck. Between Aj, KT, & KG the Dback catching situation is FUBAR

by chopperman on May 1, 2011 10:42 AM EDT reply actions

lol you are funny

1) our current “over weight, out of shape, average receiver, with a below average arm, who is an ‘all about me’ guy” is basically the third best catcher in the NL, maybe 2nd, if McCann’s BA comes back down to Earth

2) Hester isn’t even the third best catcher IN OUR SYSTEM

3) the fact that Hester will be backing up Wieters in Baltimore means that he basically WON’T be playing baseball

i always hope someone does well. but the fact is, Hester was never that great. go look up his performance before he got to AAA Reno.

by blue bulldog on May 1, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Clearly the DBacks got lucky with the PTBNL

but I’d love to see that list.

Days until Aug. 18: 135

by Reynolds rapper on May 1, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

This comment,

it is hilarious.

Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 41
In '11: 2

by Jdub220 on May 1, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I've never heard anything

about Miggy being an “all about me” guy. By most all accounts, he’s good in the clubhouse, and ALSO one of the best bats in the lineup. Johnny Estrada he is not. If Montero is overweight and out of shape, who is he when he’s fit? Yogi Berra?

As for game calling abilities, which have NEVER been proven through pitcher performance, no less a critic than Randy Johnson complimented Miggy as a catcher, even on his bitter way out of town.

Hester will never have Wieters’ hitting ability, so basically, Hester is never gonna play in Baltimore unless Wieters gets injured. I suppose he’s at least the #2 catcher there?

As for “big boy baseball, played by some of the best organizations in the game”, I’ll take the Dbacks’ .491 record with 4 division championships and a World Series victory, thank you very much. Over the same period of time, the “big boy” Orioles have 129 fewer wins, a win % below .438, and have finished 4th or 5th in their division 12 of those 13 years. (They finished 3rd in 2004. WOOO SUCCESS!!)

I’m sure he IS a good kid, and I wish him all the best, but there are plenty of decent reasons why he was playing in AAA.

Incidentally, you’re not involved in his representation, are you? Or do you know him personally? Andrew Fisher at Purple Row met his agent during Spring Training and said he’d claimed he was trying to get him traded to another org. Yet, he passed through unconditional waivers unclaimed right before the season began. Not much interest there.

HEY, FRENCHY! STAR TREK OR STAR WARS?

by DbacksSkins on May 2, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions