SB Nation Arizona Editor's Pick

D-Backs Pitching: Present and Possible Future

by finch92 on Apr 18, 2011 8:53 PM EDT

For the past few years, the strength of the Arizona Diamondbacks lied in its pitching staff. Most recently we've seen the likes of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren carve up opposing hitters, now both pitchers are gone though I don't blame the D-Backs for letting Webb walk away. Last year we saw Edwin Jackson throw a no-hitter, not by any means perfect but a no-hitter nonetheless, he is also pitching somewhere else. Even Max Scherzer had his moments in a D-Backs uniform, he is now in Detroit and pitching well as of late. The success did not have to do with only the starters, the Diamondbacks have had some quality relievers that helped the organization win. The most memorable reliever for me was the intense closer Jose` Valverde. But now the pitching for the D-Backs has gone down hill.

To begin the 2011 season, the Arizona Diamondbacks have a 6-8 record. Most of those wins can be credited to the offense; we don't get to say that a lot but there have been a few games where the offense has just exploded. The bullpen has also been a bright spot this year. April 17th's game against the San Francisco Giants ended with a walk-off base hit by shortstop Stephen Drew, but the reason he was able to deliver that hit was because the bullpen tossed 5+ scoreless innings in that game, David Hernandez threw a perfect 8th inning, J.J. Putz did the same in the 9th and 10th, and making his major league debut, Josh Collmenter threw scoreless 11th and 12th innings and picked up the win.

The biggest disappointment this year has been the starting rotation. Only two of the five starters have recorded a win so far this season, Ian Kennedy is 1-1 and Armando Galarraga is 2-0. It has been a rough season for the other three starters. Joe Saunders is 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA, Barry Enright is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA, and Daniel Hudson who has run into some bad luck with lack of run support, is 0-3 with a 4.26 ERA (the lowest of the starters). It isn't like Galarraga and Kennedy have been amazing either, Galarraga is sporting a 6.75 ERA and Kennedy's ERA is 6.88 (the highest of the starters). Collectively, the Arizona starters have been a disappointment and unless they can get themselves back on track, I don't see the D-Backs going anywhere this year.

With that being said, take a look at some of the pitchers that could be brought in via free agency next year:

Starting Pitchers

Mark Buehrle-Chicago White Sox

Chris Carpenter-St. Louis Cardinals

Edwin Jackson-Chicago White Sox (I believe it was a mistake letting him go)

Scott Kazmir-Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Joel Pineiro-Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Roy Oswalt-Philadelphia Phillies

C.J. Wilson-Texas Rangers

Those are some pretty good arms right there, those are just some that I noticed there are many other pitchers of course. Now I would like to hear from some of you! Who would YOU like to see on the Diamondbacks in the future? List any position you want, it doesn't even have to be a pitcher! Maybe some that aren't so obvious, because I think we all know that it would be awesome if Albert Pujols came to the D-Backs. So tell me what you guys think!

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Buerhle ain’t leaving the ChiSox, and CJ ain’t leaving the Rangers. Carps and Oswalt are old and, if not already in the downward trend of his career, will. be soon. Edwin Jackson only became amazing after Don Cooper worked his magic, and who’s to say that will necessarily continue if he were to leave the ChiSox? Also, I would NEVER take back the EJ for Hudson trade, because we clearly fleeced the ChiSox there.

Scott Kazmir just sucks. And Pineiro is overrated.

As for Pujols…..i don’t quite understand why people think the demand for him is going to be so high this offseason. I mean, maybe it will be. But why on earth are people demanding for an aging star who’s going to want a 10 year contract worth 250+ million? just doesn’t make any sense financially.

by blue bulldog on Apr 18, 2011 10:35 PM EDT reply actions

I completely agree with you about Pujols. I don’t think that the market will be that big for him. People say the Cubs will be in it but I don’t think that they will give him the ridiculous contract that he wants. I think he ends up back in St. Louis for sure

by finch92 on Apr 18, 2011 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Not sure on Pujols

He could hide as a DH somewhere and put up 6 WAR per year for the rest of his life. With inflation, that’s a heck of a deal. And he ought to stay intact if all he has to do is swing the bat.

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by Dan Strittmatter on Apr 19, 2011 3:20 AM EDT up reply actions

it'd be incredibly dfficult

to continuously put up 6 WAR as a DH

and sluggers age. Pujols will age. no way this works out in my mind, and it’s way too big of a risk.

the other issue is if you want to hide him as a DH, then he’s going to have to go to the AL, and actually, no team really needs him in the AL right now and can afford him. except maybe Toronto, as they build up increasing revenue.

by blue bulldog on Apr 19, 2011 6:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Perhaps that was hyperbole

But I do think aging will be kinder to Pujols than most. Call it an unfounded hunch. :-)

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by Dan Strittmatter on Apr 19, 2011 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions

what would you be happy with

seems like nothing is good for you so just curious who would you like to see

by azwebber on Apr 28, 2011 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions

nothing

don’t waste money on what is going to be an extremely weak FA crop…

spend on the draft. make sure we get top prospects out of the draft. and keep developing the farm. make extensions if we get better than market value out of the extensions. and make trades if good opportunities present themselves.

by blue bulldog on Apr 28, 2011 3:33 AM EDT up reply actions

FA not the only path to good pitching

I don’t think the Arizona FO will, or should, upgrade our rotation via FA next year. Better than even the best FA pitcher (Carpenter?) will be the arrival of Jarrod Parker and the maturation of Kenndey, Husdon, and possibly Enright. Tyler Skaggs will be on the horizon then, as well.

Possibly most important of all could be one, or even two, poished, front of the roation starters from the draft in two months. (Hultzen, for example, could be ready to be in the bigs in 2012, I hear).

So, I would probably spend that money on a FA second baseman, since Johnson is due to leave us. Not a lot of options out there if Cano and Phillips get their options picked up. But, since it’s for fun, I’ll say Cano.

by Counsellmember on Apr 19, 2011 12:13 AM EDT reply actions

i feel though

that even if we get two polished college starters (best case scenario being something like Hultzen and Gray) they’d still be September 2012 callups at the earliest

but yeah, FA pitching is going to be extremely weak next winter, so everyone is probably going to be overpaying for bad pitching. i agree with counsell that we should just draft the pitching and try to pick up a FA second baseman. but there’s pretty much no way either that we’ll be able to get Cano or Phillips :(

by blue bulldog on Apr 19, 2011 2:57 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd like to mention

the possibility that maybe our pitching eroded due to the lack of a good pitching coach over the past couple years (referring to going from Bryan Price to Mel Stottlemyre). I think Nagy and our pitchers will turn it around though. Let’s give it another month and see if they aren’t able to bring things under control.

Long term, I am less concerned about pitching than I am with the rest of the team. With relatively significant raises due to CY, Drew, Upton, and Kennedy next year, I think it’s likely we see Drew traded by the beginning of next year, but Montero signed to a longer contract. Since we don’t really have any major league ready middle infielders, I think that’s where we will see our next FA signings.

Sadly with our small market tendencies, it doesn’t really seem like we would be ready to reach the playoffs until 2014 or so when Parker, Davidson, etc., have reached the majors and have had time to adjust to major league hitting/pitching.

by eel on Apr 19, 2011 5:19 AM EDT reply actions

i think we can reach the playoffs by 2013

if you look at our projected roster for 2013….our rotation will be Parker, Hudson, IPK + 2 pitchers from the first round this year (something like, Hultzen/Gray or Hultzen/Bradley…Skaggs could also be aggressively promoted to join the roster in 2013) which i think could be a top 3 rotation in the NL, and incredibly cheap as well (less than $10 million total)

then there’s the lineup. in 2013, we’ll still have Young and Upton. we’ll easily have the money to extend Montero because of our cheap pitching, which I think will happen. that’s a solid core right there. we will have Goldschmidt at 1B and one of Krauss/Pollock will be able to fill LF adequately, if Parra doesn’t work there. so the offense is not going to be an issue. the only positions left are SS, 3B, and 2B. there’s an outside shot that we will extend Stephen Drew, because I think the market undervalues him. regardless though, with all of our prospects, we can probably trade for a good SS or 2B, or simply buy some in FA. they don’t even need to be good offensively, just be good on defense. and 3B should be solved by one of Borchering or Davidson by mid-2013, so we just need to have like a half-season stop gap. willie bloomquist anybody?

by blue bulldog on Apr 19, 2011 7:29 AM EDT up reply actions

We could always elect for someone like Bundy this year

But Charlie Brewer is no slouch for the relatively-soon future.

Then again, banking on Parker is far from a certainty at this point. His struggles aren’t panic-worthy by any means, but the proof has to be in the pudding at some point.

I’d be stunned if the market undervalued a SS with a plus bat.

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by Dan Strittmatter on Apr 19, 2011 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions

that's true....

we could use one of our other back-end prospects, and invest in the future in someone like Bundy. i won’t complain if that happens. however, like you said, Parker is far from a certainty, especially after spring training and the outings he’s just put up…not panicking, but definitely beginning to pay attention

skaggs is a talent for sure. but he’s seemed to have miraculously lost his control.

and Stephen Drew doesn’t really have a plus bat (I consider plus bat to be like, wRC+ >120); unless you meant he has a plus bat for his position, but then if you mean that, you can’t really give him the bonus points for his position right? just being nitpicky i know

but seriously. what do you think Drew’s real-world value is? assuming he turns down the mutual option (almost a guarantee in my mind) then he hits FA in 2013 at age 30. he’ll probably want a 5 year contract. conservatively, let’s assign him 4.0 WAR to start. simple aging assumption gets you 4.0, 3.5, 3.0, 2.5, 2.0 for the duration of his contract which amounts to a total of 15.0 WAR over 5 years. an average of 3.0 WAR per year. and then conservatively, an average of 5.0 million per WAR per year?

so basically, do you think someone will be willing to give him a 5yr/$75 million contract? i really don’t have great evidence to support this, but i just don’t see it happening. and i consider that contract to be a conservative estimate of what Drew’s on-field value is.

for what it’s worth, Boras settled for what amounts to $9 million for Drew’s Arb 3 year. i know this isn’t a perfect estimate, but Arb 3 tends to be 80% of a player’s FA market value, which means Boras potentially sees Drew’s FA years to be worth around $11 million. you don’t think if AZ offered Drew a 5yr/$60 million contract, he would take that?

i dunno, i guess i’d be pretty happy if we got Drew for 5 years and $60 million

by blue bulldog on Apr 19, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions

The samples are still way too small

With Parker, I think we really should have expected some road-bumps, and the comforting fact is that he’s still missing bats at a high rate. The walks and control/command need to be reeled in, but there’s promise in the K’s. As for Skaggs, I think that’s pure SSS. The season will iron those concerns out, I think.

I think he could be a $14MM/year player, probably for 5 or 6 years. SS is a hard position to find, so there will be a premium on his services, and with inflation I think such a contract could be very beneficial for the team signing Drew.

Arbitration is trickier than that. It doesn’t escalate based on fair value, but on raises based on the prior year or two of productivity (obviously based on the first three years of productivity for arb year 1).

I certainly wouldn’t mind if the market undervalued Drew. That would be incredible.

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by Dan Strittmatter on Apr 19, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions