The first 5 innings

Jim and I discussed ST results last year or the year before, and I think as a result he started posting something that came out of that conversation. Specifically, the point that in the first half of ST, almost all the starters are out of the game by the 5th inning, and even a lot of the top relievers are used earlier in the games. So rather than looking at Team overall Won Loss, or individual players stats, one way to take the temperature of how the team is doing relative to major league competiion is to look at results through the first 5 innings.  I mean, it's great that our minor leaguers are doing some damage against other teams minor leaguers.....but that won't have much bearing on the first few months of the season. So how are we doing through the first 5 innings ?


Date AZ Runs OPP Runs thru 5
Feb-25 4 7 L
Feb-26 1 1 T
Feb-27 0 3 L
Feb-28 1 2 L
Mar-01 4 6 L
Mar-02 3 1 W
Mar-02 2 3 L
Mar-03 3 2 W
Mar-04 0 3 L
Mar-05 2 2 T
Mar-06 1 5 L
Mar-07 #1
3 5 L
Mar-07 #2
1 4 L
Mar-08 13 2 W
Mar-09 7 8 L
45 54 3W, 10L, 2T


As long as I'm being a geek, I should point out thats a .400 Pythag winnings %.  Pythag is probably a better thing to look at than actual game won loss for ST anyway. This is something that is worth keeping an eye on for the next 7=10 days.  Once starting pitchers start going 5-6 innings, and starting position players hang around for at least 7 innings, then you can start just adding on  full game results

Looking at this roster......looking at the projections, and looking at early spring results is all re-enforcing the idea in my mind that unless Upton REALLY breaks out, and CY, KJ, Drew, & Montero, can at least match their best major league seasons to date, our offense is gonna suck and the pitching will surprise a few people if they stay healthy.

[Edit by Jim] Now updated prettily, with the past five games - though we went 1-4, the Tuesday blowout means we actually closed the gap by one run over the four days.

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