Who'll Lead The 2011 Diamondbacks in Batting Average?
by Jim McLennan on Mar 28, 2011 11:00 PM EDT
in Diamondbacks Features
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PrintYeah, we all know - or should - that batting average is far from the best measure of a player's offensive abilities. However, this is simply a bit of fun, and to some extent, we've already covered slugging in yesterday's home-run question. So, we'll take the caveats as read, and today, we're simply asking who is going to lead the 2011 version of the Diamondbacks in batting average.
Single-season Champions [qualifying hitters only]
- 1998: Devon White, .279
- 1999: Luis Gonzales, .336
- 2000: Luis Gonzales, .311
- 2001: Luis Gonzales, .325
- 2002: Junior Spivey, .301
- 2003: Luis Gonzales, .304
- 2004: Shea Hillenbrand, .310
- 2005: Chad Tracy, .308
- 2006: Conor Jackson, .291
- 2007: Orlando Hudson, .294
- 2008: Conor Jackson. .300
- 2009: Justin Upton, .300
- 2010: Kelly Johnson, .284
Historically, the median is at .301, but the past five years have all been below that mark - the last Diamondbacks to hit better than .300 was Chad Tracy in 2005. Will anyone do better this year? Here are who I think will be the top candidates for this category in the upcoming season.
Stephen Drew. High: .291 (2008). Last year: .278. Career: .272
Drew's main issue is probably consistency. He has has good months - such as August last year, where he hit .310 (with a .303 BABIP, so wasn't "lucky"). Or even over more extended periods, such as his insane second-half in 2008, when it seemed he got a hit every time up, batting at a .326 clip. That has led to expectations, or hopes, to which he hasn't quite been able to live up. He pushed Johnson close last year; just four more hits over the course of the year would have given Drew top-spot.
Kelly Johnson. High: .287 (2008). Last year: .284. Career: .269
KJ's career numbers are lowered by a disappointing rookie year (.241 in 87 games), and also the injury-affected 2009 (.224 in 106), which made the Braves non-tender him, to our benefit.. Excluding those, his career number is up at .283, almost identical to the number last season. That may have been BABIP-assisted, as Johnson posted a .339 figure, more than twenty points above his career figure there. On the other hand, his line-drive percentage was a career-high 21%, which lends itself to a high BABIP. Can he repeat that?
Melvin Mora. High: .340 (2004). Last year: .285. Career: .278
Mora has the best career average of any of our candidates. And while his peak season took place when Upton was in high-school, his number for the Rockies last year was better than any D-back managed, albeit over fewer at-bats (316). That could have been somewhat due to BABIP (.324, vs. career .307) and the spacious confines of Coors, but Chase isn't all that far behind in terms of hitter friendliness these days. But Mora is now aged 39, and no-one that age has hit even .280 in 400+ PAs, since Jeff Kent in 2008.
Justin Upton. High: .300 (2009). Last year: .272. Career: .272
I'm tempted to copy and paste yesterday's comments regarding Upton, since much of it applies here too - the first step is that we hope he gets enough at-bats to qualify. With regard to his average, my main concern is a career BABIP of .345, despite a line-drive rate exactly at league-average (19%); I'm curious what's powering that, and whether it can be sustained through another season; after 1,700+ trips to the plate, it's fairly anomalous. Maybe J-Up can use his speed to leg out some more bunt hits this year.
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Drew
I say Drew simply by attrition. I don’t think Johnson will have as good a season this year as he had last year. That was kinda a career year for him, so the odds of him repeating are slim. Mora has gotten to the point where as a player your production has started to decline, so I seriously doubt that he will contend for this honor. Then there’s Upton. Personally, I don’t see him as someone who will consistantly put up batting average numbers as he did in 2008. He strikes me more as a power guy who won’t get as many hits as others, but when he does, they’ll have a good chance of leaving the park. That leaves Drew (out of those choices, not that I can think of anyone else who might) to lead us in average.
by imstillhungry95 on Mar 28, 2011 11:34 PM EDT reply actions
Stephen Drew
I have a feeling he’s in for an All-star year.
(Or it’s probably because I’m biased towards him, as he’s one of my favorite players)
Drew
Because he has to.
Anger is the most useless emotion; destructive to the mind and hurtful of the heart
I say it will be
RyRo…because I feel he has the ability to carry over his awesome spring to the regular season…
"In the book of life, the answers aren't in the back." ~Charles M Schulz
'Last words are for fools who haven't said enough'. - Karl Marx
No problem for the Dread Pirate.
He’s THAT good.
Well, you don't ever want to miss that.
by 4 Corners Fan on Mar 28, 2011 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course not.
The original Dread Pirate is retired. Everybody knows that.
Well, you don't ever want to miss that.
by 4 Corners Fan on Mar 29, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
"In the book of life, the answers aren't in the back." ~Charles M Schulz
'Last words are for fools who haven't said enough'. - Karl Marx
by Rockkstarr12 on Mar 29, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
last Player to hit .300 for AZ
Was of course Justin with his .300 on the nose in 2009. He has hit .287 over the last two seasons.
Mora last hit .300 in 2004. , .285 last year, .270 over the last two seasons.
Drew hit .278 last year, .270 over the last two seasons.
KJ hit .284 last year, .264 the last two seasons.
I think Justin has to be the pretty clear favorite in this poll. If he cuts the K’s back to under 140 in a full season, i.e. 600+ PA’s, then I think he’ll have the highest BA pretty easily. The combination of how hard he hits the ball when it’s put in play, and his speed give him a huge advantage when it comes to BA.
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
Jim, about Justin's BABIP
We’ve had this discussion SEVERAL times before.
LD% does not correlate exactlyor as strongly to BABIP as many people think. The correlation is strong, don’t get me wrong. But there are other factors. Banging a long Fly ball off the wall or down the line for a double or a triple doesn’t count as a line drive. Hitting an extremely hard groundball that zips through the infield on a couple of hops does not count as a line drive. But those hard hit balls are far more likely to end up as a hit then one of Willie Bloomquist’s flairs that get classified as a line drive.
If you look at the Fangraphs BABIP leaders you will see 4 or 5 guys ahead of Justin in BABIP from 2007-2010 that actually had lower LD% than he did. And overall on the first page of players, there are about 9 that had lower BABIP than Justin did. It’s not really all that rare.
I can see SOME regression for Justin’s BABIP, perhaps down to about .330 or so. Since 2007, when Justin came into the league, there are 40 guys who have maintained a BABIP at .330 or higher, (min 1200 PA’s). It’s not THAT rare. And Justin only ranks 13th
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/A1IKx
Or…..maybe he doesn’t reduce the K rate, but hits more homers….which count as hits too, and therefore offset any regression to his BABIP.
30 fewer K’s, 15 more homers, and most likely not a tremendous drop in BABIP, and Justin is all of a sudden hitting .310-.320 with 30+ homers and 100 plus RBI and all the idiots on AZ Central finally STFU !
There is MY spring optimism and hope !! :)
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
by shoewizard on Mar 29, 2011 2:29 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
lol
love this comment…
i think Upton will cut down his K-rate this year from last year. a lot. if he cuts down to around 22-23% (i know…that’d be insanely impressive….) then he’s pretty much a lock for 300, with his power and speed. add some power, maintain that defense…and i really think this is the year Upton breaks 5 WAR
by blue bulldog on Mar 29, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, absolutely
But most of those above Upton on the list, with a higher BABIP and lower LD%, are speedsters like Hanley Ramirez, or masters of the infield hit like Ichiro. The latter had 64 infield hits last season; there’s a reason why his BABIP is so high. Upton had only 14.
I’d love it if he hits .310 and 30 HR. But if he hit .273 with a BABIP of .354 (as last year), what is Upton going to hit with a BABIP of .330?
"While Mrs. SnakePit watched one of the most highly acclaimed films of the year, I sat through a badly made schlock fest with absolutely no redeeming value. And it was awesome."
by Jim McLennan on Mar 29, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Upton's a bit of a speedster himself...
http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/
by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 29, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
You'd like to *think* so
But 14 infield hits is less than, say, Matt Holliday had last year (16). And he hit into 20 double-plays – Bengie Molina had only 14. He should be using his speed to better effect: I think we saw him put down a bunt-hit on Saturday, and he should be doing that more often. Teams can’t play him in because of the power, and he could take advantage of that.
"While Mrs. SnakePit watched one of the most highly acclaimed films of the year, I sat through a badly made schlock fest with absolutely no redeeming value. And it was awesome."
by Jim McLennan on Mar 29, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Erm...
Matt Holliday is pretty fast, too… :-P
But I get the point, it’s just a matter of TJU not knowing precisely how to best utilize his speed. But perhaps that speed is still coming into play in his BABIP to some extent.
http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/
by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 29, 2011 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
My feeling, too.
Individual performances are all that can interest us this season. (Along with fluky accomplishments such as 4- or 5-hit games, pitcher HRs, hitting for the cycle, etc.)
HEY, FRENCHY! STAR TREK OR STAR WARS?
Miguel Montero
I’m disappointed that he’s not an option on this poll – I think he has a much better chance of leading the team in batting average than Drew, Johnson, and Mora do.
But anyway, I think it’ll be Montero.
My prediction for him:
.311/.373/.513/.886
535 PA, 481 AB, 150 hits, 20 HR, 1 triple, 35 doubles, 81 K, 47 BB, 3 HBP
I'll eat up all your crackers and your licorice...
Qualifying hitters
His career high is only 470 PAs – it’s hard for a catcher, who is very unlikely to appear in 150+ games like an outfielder can. But for the record.
High: .294 (2009). Last year: .266 Career: .267
"While Mrs. SnakePit watched one of the most highly acclaimed films of the year, I sat through a badly made schlock fest with absolutely no redeeming value. And it was awesome."
by Jim McLennan on Mar 29, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Means
he’s either gone all Ponce De Leon and found the fountain of youth, or our team sucks. (Or we have a lot of injuries and we have a lot of players not qualify)
And the former is unlikely, given that he didn’t find it through 10 years in the Grapefruit League.
HEY, FRENCHY! STAR TREK OR STAR WARS?
I voted TJU
But I’m not that sure about it. Mora has a better chance than anybody is willing to admit (at least, a much better chance than the overall ’Pit is giving him based on the poll), and there could always be surprises like Parra returning to rookie form (with a more normal BABIP), RyRo sneaking in in the event of an injury, or even freaking Bloomquist leading the team for the highest (and most hollow) batting average if the team plays him enough.
http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/
by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 29, 2011 1:25 PM EDT reply actions
Kelly Johnson, for sure
I feel like his power is due for a decrease this year but he will make up for it by hitting singles and doubles more consistently
Voted TJU.
No reason, other than my blind faith in his ability to be freakin’ awesome.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 41
Also,
not sure who this “Orland Hudson” fellow is. He sure has an odd first name though…
/nitpick
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 41
No.
In the article, Jim wrote “Orland Hudson” instead of Orlando. He fixed it though.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 41
I actually thought you had said "Orlando"
I was lengthening the joke to include reference to a troll that used to be on DBBP (possibly here?). I did not notice you omitted the “o” until just now.
Per Mare, Per Terras
Oh well. Must be that other place.
He was very vile and hateful. Would say some really screwed up R-rated crap. He had a vendetta against Melvin.
Per Mare, Per Terras
What
was his full name, though?
HEY, FRENCHY! STAR TREK OR STAR WARS?
by DbacksSkins on Mar 30, 2011 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
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