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Diamondbacks 3, White Sox 7: Good Barry Enright Shows Up Late

Was it a mistake to tell Barry Enright he'd made the Diamondbacks' rotation? It certainly seemed so after the first three batters of this evening's contest for Chicago went homer, triple, homer. Three runs and eleven total bases recorded before Enright got Carlos Quentin to ground to third for his first out of the game. Ouch. Let's just pretend those first three hitters never happened, shall we?

A decent effort from Barry Enright, pitching into the sixth inning before he seemed to tire, giving up a couple of late runs on three hits there, leading to him getting relieved by Carlos Rosa. He left with a final line of 5.1 innings pitched, allowing three runs on six hits and two walks, striking out two.

There. That's much better...

Star-divide

Of course, the reality is uglier: nine hits and six runs in 5.1 innings, and half-a-dozen of those hits went for extra bases, including a couple of homers. That's been Barry bete noire this spring - much as it was at the end of last season - with Enright's giving up five long-balls in 22.1 innings, which is quite a hefty rate. After him, Carlos Rosa tidied up the sixth inning, Sam Demel allowed a solo shot to Quentin in the seventh,and David Hernandez finished things off, wiggling out of a jam by striking out Gordon Beckham with the bases-loaded.

On offense, the Diamondbacks managed nine hits, getting on the board in the fifth, when a David Winfree single drove in Xavier Nady. Two more runs were added the next time up, courtesy of a Kelly Johnson triple and Russell Branyan ground-out. That made it a one-run game, but was as close as Arizona got this evening. Melvin Mora and Winfree each had a couple of hits, while short-stop Zachary Walters had our only walk of the game, as well as getting a knock. He and Nady each stole a base.

Stephen Drew was scheduled to play, but was a late scratch from this contest, due to "lower abdominal soreness" - which is why Walters was in the line-up. That's now four consecutive days Drew has been out of the line-up; no reason to get concerned yet, but I'd like to see him playing over the weekend. After all, I did put him down in the 'Iron Man' category for Tangotiger's playing time survey. In what I presume is entirely unrelated news, it's being reported that we have signed infielder Kevin Frandsen, released by the Padres earlier that day. This is likely simply to provide infield depth at Reno, since a career 67 OPS+ should be anywhere near our roster.

And with that, off to prepare for SnakePicnicFest as SRF@TS tomorrow. Probably won't be much on the site until we get back from that, but I'm sure 'charmer will keep us updated if any news should break.

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The homerun issue isn't going away

I’m sorry to say that, but thats the way it is.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Mar 26, 2011 1:31 AM EDT reply actions  

nah

enright is what he is…i doubt any amount of AAA would have made him better

by blue bulldog on Mar 26, 2011 7:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

But he did jump from AA last year,

and put up a pretty solid string for a while.
Don’t think AAA would turn him into an ace, but if it was my team that’s where he’d be, at least for the first part of the season.

by xmet on Mar 26, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

He's already very much polished.

There’s just only so far you can get with his kind of fly ball stuff. Not a huge issue, he can still be an innings-eating starter. No reason to jump off the bandwagon after one start showed us something we already kind of knew…. he gives up homers.

http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 26, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've never been ON the bandwagon

20 HR in 99 IP is a lot of HR.
Wasn’t quite that bad in the minors of course. 42 in 429 IP, or 0.9 HR/9

But his minor league K rate was only 7.3 /9 That translates to something much lower in the majors. He is never going to be a high strikeout pitcher. If you can’t strike guys out, than you must induce at least a league avg amount of ground balls, or have such a minscule walk rate or some combination of both, to offset the low K rate.

Instead, Barry K’d just 4.5 per 9, and had a 0.53 GB/FB ratio, (league avg is .80) He did have a very low 1.8 BB/9 rate, and his minor league rate was 1.9. So there is plenty of evidence he has good control.

But he doesn’t have a sinker, and his up in the zone act just won’t make it with his velocity/stuff. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, unless Barry can learn how to throw some pitches with sink that induce more groundballs, and work that into his arsenal, he is never going to be any better than Yusmeiro Petit.

Minor league ratios, K/9, BB/9 and HR/9

Petit 9.3/2.2/1.0
Barry 7.3/1.9/0.9

Major league GB/FB ratio

Petit 0.47 HR/FB 11.5%
Barry 0.53, HR/FB 11.2%

Petit is only one year older than Barry by the way.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Mar 26, 2011 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah

it saddens me but i have to agree with this

but hey, maybe the dude can be like matt cain and have like a 7% HR/FB rate!

by blue bulldog on Mar 27, 2011 3:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yusmeiro Petit

Is an extremely cherry-picked, statistical-outlier example. Here’s another one.

Minor league ratios, K/9, BB/9, HR/9

Pitcher A 5.9/2.9/0.8

You’ve heard of Pitcher A before. His name is Roy Halladay.

Let’s keep in mind that Enright is about to turn 25 years old. He can still improve his stuff, get a better feel for a change-up, sharpen up his off-speed, etc. Even if his fastball is topped out, it’s not like he can’t continue to perfect his command and control. Even with his bad GB-Rate last year, it also is true that he had a bloated HR/FB (even by Chase standards) and could also see an uptick in that rate as it stabilizes.

In other words, the jury isn’t truly out on Enright. He’s pitched well in Spring Training, and I don’t see a reason why we have to peg him as a mediocre spot-starter already when we have such a small major league sample and his minor league numbers are solid, if unspectacular.

http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 27, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Halladay pitched most of 97 and all of 98

in AAA, spent all of 99 in the Majors, then significant time in the minors in 2000 and 2001.

AAA didn’t hurt him, and if Enright is going to be more than an average work horse it could be the way.

by xmet on Mar 27, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's a totally fair point

I wasn’t arguing that, just that the Petit comp was strained and cherry-picked.

http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 27, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

In my perfect world,

Heilman will win the starting job today, and will pitch well enough so that Enright will be sent to AAA when Duke returns. If he’s a fast study he’ll be ready to return when Saunders and/or Duke are traded.

by xmet on Mar 27, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think we could

It depends on how quickly he returns and how much he regresses back towards being a reliable starter.

http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 27, 2011 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

sigh.........

Cherry picking ? You are not getting it. I’m showing you how even a guy like Petit, who had a superior minor league track record, could not survive such high homerun rates.

And then you give me Roy Halladay ?? BTW, ask Jim how trying to use Roy Halladay’s 2000 season and early career as an example during the Yusmeiro Petit debates worked out for him 3 years ago.

Look…this is pretty simple. If Enright does not learn a pitch with some downward sink and induce more GB, thereby allowing fewer FB & HR,, or if he doesn’t start striking out a lot more guys, he is not going to succeed. I’ve never said he can’t do these things. I’m saying he MUST do these things.

The irony here is that you mention statistical outlier, but you don’t seem to grasp how much of an outlier Enright’s success was last year. That ERA is not sustainable with that profile and peripherals. If Enright’s ERA were 4.91 instead of 3.91 last year, you would not be trying to argue the points you are arguing.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Mar 27, 2011 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am getting more than you think

Like when I said that we truly ought to give Enright a chance to have a legitimate sample before we say that he’ll continue allowing that level of fly balls throughout his entire freaking career.

I know exactly what Enright’s production last year was. Are you kidding me? You don’t think that I’ve seen his FIP? I’ve chalked him up as a bullpen guy on these very boards before, just like you do on the DBBP, and then Enright came out in Spring Training and once again put up a decent ERA, kept the ball in the park for the most part, had good peripherals, made the club, impressed the team’s scouts, and impressed other scouts (a new azcentral article has a scout’s take, who says that Enright is a “quintessential back-end starter” with “no glaring weaknesses” – and while you or I might argue that point, we don’t get paid for our evaluations, and that scout does). Isn’t it worth at least giving him a chance to show what he’s made of over a larger sample?

At the end of the day, you’re trying to tell me that if Enright’s FIP doesn’t get better at some point during his career (because HR and K are the two areas he can seriously improve his FIP), his career FIP is going to stink. Marvelous insight there. Thanks for enlightening me.

http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 27, 2011 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Calm down

First things first:
When you accuse someone of Cherry Picking stats, you are accusing them of either intellectual dishonesty or lack of understanding. You are the one who ratcheted up this debate by using that phrase not once but twice. So put on a cup. If you are going to dish it out,…then you have to take it.

Now….You are assuming that my entire evaluation is based only on his major league track record and calling out the small sample size…….yet then you use his first 15 spring innings numbers as further evidence for your point. Bit of a conflict there.

In actuality, my evaluation of Enright is based on a combination of his minor league numbers, major league numbers, scouting reports, and baseball people who’s opinion I know and trust intimately. His spring performance, good or bad, has little to no effect on my opinion of him. Other than the fact that the HR issue still exists and

Finally, while I am not CURRENTLY paid to evaluate players, I was for several years and up until the recent past. I left to make more money in China. (Baseball is fun work, but doesn’t pay what I’m used to making). When a scout says that Enright has “no glaring weaknesses”, that scout needs to be enlightened. He clearly is missing a rather large one.

Anyway……..Galaragga and Heilman are not very good either, and the team is low on options. Enright would be better served being in the minors another half season working on a sinker. But thats not going to happen.

  

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Mar 27, 2011 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

it reads to me like

you guys agree on more than this exchange would otherwise indicate…..

on a rather off topic note. what do you do now in Dongguan?

by blue bulldog on Mar 27, 2011 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

About your definition of cherry picking stats...

First, I don’t see how that is intellectual dishonesty (has anybody EVER been sued for cherry-picking stats in a baseball discussion?). Second, the only way that that qualifies as accusing you of a lack of understanding is, well, if you take it that way. Instead of focusing on what I “accused” you of, the alternative is finding another couple of examples, or since B-R is so awesome, sorting out multiple examples.

Additionally, the prospect status of Petit while in the minor leagues was a huge topic for a while because of the significant clash between his minor-league statistical track record and his scouting reports. So when his name is brought up in comparison to any prospect, that’s the first, and typically most logical, reaction to have – trying to compare a prospect to another whose stats in the minors and poor results in the majors were so dramatically contrasting.

Really, the only reason I threw that “cherry-picking” term out there is because I thought you were straight-up comparing the two as a way of saying Barry was destined to fail, because that’s sure what it sounds like (comparisons of ages, numbers, the phrase “Unless … he is never going to be anything more than Yusmeiro Petit.”). If that’s what I wasn’t “getting,” then great, I didn’t get it, and as blue bulldog mentioned, we seem to agree on this a lot more than our arguing would indicate.

I reached that conclusion because you put in a lot of effort comping the two’s numbers and minor league track record. After all, all but about half of one paragraph of your first reply to me talked about Barry’s stats and the Petit comp. See how I could have been easily misled there?

When I mentioned the spring training numbers, I also mentioned the scouting report, which I had weighed more heavily (although based on the amount of time I spent discussing the ST stuff, isn’t obvious – admittedly, that is my bad). However, seeing a cavalcade of numbers but no mention of scouting reports leads to the easy assumption that the scouting reports aren’t being used. If you have people who you know and trust who have negative reports on Barry, then fine. I understand the reasons why those reports exist, but there are also contrasting reports based on recent showings that have a more optimistic tune, and are worth seriously considering rather than saying that the scout “needs to be enlightened.”

I agree that if he repeats his peripherals from last year, he’ll probably tank. But I also don’t think that a sample of 99 innings in the major leagues should start producing the name “Yusmeiro Petit.” That’s truly all I’m trying to argue here.

http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 27, 2011 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not my definition

Mine is a fairly common understanding of what it means. 2 Seconds on Google produced this:

Cherry picking has a few different definitions, but it is most often thought of as the process of selecting a small amount of information or data to attempt to prove a point, while ignoring contradicting information. When cherry picking information, a person may end up with a faulty theory or position on a topic because all relevant information was not considered. A person might cherry pick information either on purpose or inadvertently, such as when a person might inadvertently only look at data that is easy to find, presenting a false impression. The term is more commonly used with someone who purposefully ignores contradicting information, however.

http://www.wisegeek.com/what-does-cherry-picking-mean.htm

Or did I just cherry pick that definition ? :)

Thats my attempt at levity…..hope it’s getting through.

I guess we should turn this around the other way

Give me the reasons for why you think that Enright will either

A.) Continue to get better results than his peripherals indicate

OR

B.) Tell me why you think his peripherals will improve.

Have we heard ANYTHING out of camp about increased velocity, a new pitcher, better movement, a new approach ?

Give me reasons to expect his peripherals to improve and I’ll jump right on the bandwagon.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Mar 28, 2011 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

I saw nothing of intellectual dishonesty

Your argument is invalid!!! :-)

My point is part B:

a) It’s entirely possible that his peripherals have yet to truly stabilize in his big-league sample.
b) it’s entirely possible that his first sample is weighed down by a dead-arm period we heard about last year.
c) we’ve been hearing good reports about improvements in Enright’s change-up this spring. another (or a first…) average to above-average offering would go a long way in keeping people off-balance, and the downward fade on a change-up will hopefully get more grounders.

http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 28, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ok

I’ll look for the changeup then.

I really don’t think it was a dead arm period that caused his numbers to jump. Back when he was on his nice run I looked at it and saw a ton of FB, very few GB, and very few K’s. He even was inducing a lot of GB DP, which was really strange for a guy with such and extreme GB/FB ratio. 9 GBDP in his first 11 games.

So I started calling it out that he was going to regress HARD. It took an extra start or two to kick in, but then ultimately it did. Maybe some dead arm coincided with that.

Anyway……..the biggest problem with this team is certainly not Barry Enright. The biggest problem with this team is he may be the teams 3rd best starter.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Mar 29, 2011 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's only 24, which I think is too young to

give up on him getting better.

In AAA he could work on improving his arsenal, which is something he can’t do in the majors, without jeopardizing staying there.

Another pitch, more grounders, and everybody wins.
If it doesn’t work, there’s not much to lose.

by xmet on Mar 26, 2011 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good point

If he is going to learn a new pitch, better to learn it in Reno. I’m with you there.

Check out this link. It’s a simple sort. Pitchers age 25 or younger with between 80-150 career IP. HR/9 higher than 1.5, K/9 lower than 6.
(Remember Barry is at 1.82 on the HR/9 ratio and 4.5 on the K/9 ratio)

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/lVedB

By a fairly wide margin, Barry has the best ERA+ and the highest WAR total of any such pitcher. In other words, through this stage of his career, among pitchers with that profile, Barry got better results than any pitcher in the history of the game. This list is not the type of list you want to be on even if you are at the top of it.

If someone wants to be wildly optimistic, they could take the position that he has such a special makeup that he will make sure those homers never come when it matters or seldom with men on base. But if someone wanted to be realistic, they would conclude it’s far more likely that there will be some serious regression to the mean in terms of his ERA results unless something drastic were to change.

Pitching is hard. And coaching and teaching pitching is a very specialized skill that takes years of experience, a sharp eye and memory, and yest intuition to acquire. It’s easy for me to sit here and type out numbers and look at history. The art and science of pitching mechanics, grips, and teaching a pitcher with the talent to the throw the ball hard and accurately how to maximize that talent into becoming as successful major league pitcher are things I will never be able to do.

But that doesn’t change the accuracy of my analysis.

Either induce more GB, or strikeout more guys. Or fail.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Mar 26, 2011 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

This whole conversation

makes me sad. Not that it’s news, it just makes me sad.

HEY, FRENCHY! STAR TREK OR STAR WARS?

by DbacksSkins on Mar 28, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Frandsen

I still don’t think the team trusts Bloomquist or Roberts as a backup SS, and there isn’t much help at the high-level minors either. That’s why we’ve seen so much of Chris Owings and Zach Walters this late in Spring Training.
 
If Abreu is lost on waivers, then I think Frandsen kind of moves into the Abreu role at AAA – a passable defensive SS who can fill in anywhere around the infield. At least Frandsen knows how to take a walk.

by Amit on Mar 26, 2011 2:04 AM EDT reply actions  

Solid guy for depth

Is an actual 3B guy for us to stash in the high minors and is better than the likes of Cody Ransom or Sean Burroughs. Not that his defensive numbers are spectacular, but he is what he is.

http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 26, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

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