Diamondbacks 2011 Line-up (As Seen In 2007 Version)

by Jim McLennan on Mar 21, 2011 11:43 AM EDT in Diamondbacks Features

While looking into the history of Brett Anderson, I came across a copy of the 2008 Baseball America Prospect Handbook, edited by Jim Callis, Will Lingo and John Manuel. In the Diamondbacks section, it lists our projected 2011 line-up. This is an interesting look into the future, from the viewpoint of December 2007, when it seemed the team was on the upswing, having just won the NL West and "signed sparkplug Eric Byrnes." Yeah, about that...

Catcher Chris Snyder
First Base Conor Jackson
Second Base Orlando Hudson
Third Base Mark Reynolds
Shortstop Stephen Drew
Left Field Carlos Gonzalez
Center Field Chris Young
Right Field Justin Upton

No. 1 Starter Brandon Webb
No. 2 Starter Jarrod Parker
No. 3 Starter Micah Owings
No. 4 Starter Brett Anderson
No. 5 Starter Barry Enright
Closer Max Scherzer

Stephen Drew is the only survivor of the infield, and it's interesting to note that, even then, we didn't seem to have anyone to play second - which is odd, since they list Emilio Bonifacio as our #6 prospect (and this was before the Dan Haren trade gutted the list), and he made his debut earlier that year. Mind you, given he has accumulated -1.2 bWAR in 260 major-league games, they may have had a point. They did get two-third of the outfield right, though that was hardly difficult to predict. Whatever happened to Carlos Gonzalez anyway? </denial>

The rotation is interesting. Obviously, Parker's Tommy John surgery probably prevented him from becoming part of the team, though given the way the past couple of seasons went (and the way this one is shaping up), it might be for the best from a service time point of view. Anderson - as shoewizard pointed out - has blossomed into one of the best "unknown" talents over the past season and a half. And look at #5: the man who seems likely to be there on Opening Day for Arizona. But even then, it seemed there were questions about Scherzer's stamina. Here's the top 10 Arizona prospects from that time:

1.     Carlos Gonzalez, of
2.     Jarrod Parker, rhp
3.     Brett Anderson, lhp
4.     Max Scherzer, rhp
5.     Gerardo Parra, of
6.     Emilio Bonifacio, 2b/ss
7.     Aaron Cunningham, of
8.     Chris Carter, 1b
9.     Reynaldo Navarro, ss
10.     Barry Enright, rhp

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Comments

Funny How That Works

I’ve been a baseball fan for 46 years now, and I’ve lost count of how many “can’t miss” prospects I’ve seen that ended up missing. And guys that got drafted in a late round who turned out to be all-stars. (If I were as obsessive as Jim, I’d look some of them up to prove my ‘point’, but I’ll just run with my anecdotal evidence). Scouting is an inexact science at best, and ‘potential’ is merely a starting point.
Part of the beauty of baseball is that it is almost impossible to predict. For every ‘Justin Upton’ type of prospect, there’s a ‘Craig Counsell’ type of surprise and a ‘Conor Jackson’ type of unfulfilled expectation. Sometimes the ‘little guy’ makes the big play, other times ‘mighty Casey’ strikes out. And pitchers are even harder to predict.
That the 2007 projection got 3 of 8 position players right is actually pretty good.

I'm working my way to grumpy old curmudgeon status with all the grace I can muster.

by pygalgia on Mar 21, 2011 12:06 PM EDT reply actions

That OF

Would be legit!

Freeze it..and make a popsicle

by Baja F1 on Mar 21, 2011 12:28 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks for that.

I’m just gonna go and be sad now…

Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 41

by Jdub220 on Mar 21, 2011 12:59 PM EDT reply actions

That's a shocking list

As in a spectacular one. Imagine being Rey Navarro and looking at that. :-P Sure, Bonifacio is horrible, but at least he made it to the big leagues.

http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 21, 2011 1:07 PM EDT reply actions

I look at these every year.

You can get a few laughs the further you go back

Why have 5 starting pitchers when you can just as easily have 7?

by Bryan J. Boltik on Mar 21, 2011 4:03 PM EDT reply actions

or a few tears...

CoJack valley fever….Reynolds/Cargo traded away

Webb shoulder surgery, Parker TJ, Anderson/Scherzer traded away

obviously Parker still has a chance at being beastly….but still. it’s like, every guy we bet on got screwed over with bad luck (CoJack/Webb) and every guy we bet against went away and became a star (CarGo/Anderson/Scherzer)

by blue bulldog on Mar 22, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

It's a little early to declare Scherzer a star

And it’s not like IPK and Jackson/Hudson haven’t been performing for us.

"What everybody needs to do is calm down, take a deep breath, and prepare their bodies for the Thunderdome. That is the new law."

by kishi on Mar 22, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Dead horse,

but still.

Player 2010 bWAR/fWAR w/ Dbacks/Tigers

E-Jack -0.1/1.8
IPK 2.7/2.4
Hudson 3.1/2.0

Schlereth 0.3/0.1
Scherzer 3.3/3.7

Result: Dbacks 5.7 bWAR, 6.2 fWAR
Tigers 3.6 bWAR, 3.8 fWAR

On a one year basis, outcome vs. outcome for the Tigers/Dbacks component of the trade, we won — but really, largely because of the E-Jack for Hudson trade. (That almost certainly really boosted our future value, too)

Think I’ll FanPost this.

Mr. Science Boy

by DbacksSkins on Mar 22, 2011 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I feel like

we might have discussed this way back when. It seems kinda familiar. But I couldn’t find anything in the archives on a cursory search, so maybe I’m just crazy.

by Azreous on Mar 21, 2011 6:02 PM EDT reply actions

Personally,

I’m surprised that Enright was ranked 10th in 2007. Funny how THAT works. And that was obviously BEFORE the Haren trade, too.

From a top-10 prospect, to a pretty steep fall on prospect lists, to an unsustainably good start in the majors in 2010, to regression, and now to making the opening day 2011 roster through luck and moxie. They DID predict that he’d end up as our 5th starter, though.

Mr. Science Boy

by DbacksSkins on Mar 22, 2011 3:32 PM EDT reply actions

Lights Out in 2007

After Enright was drafted in 2007, he threw 15 IP (between Yakima, South Bend, Visalia) without allowing a run, while striking out 17. That put him on a lot of prospect lists. But then he fell off the lists after a 4.44 ERA full year in Visalia, even though he had a nice 4.1 K/BB ratio.

by Amit on Mar 22, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions