FanPost

Just an observation on Cahill & Breslow and maybe KT

Was going over Dbacks stats in the wake of the trade and I think I noticed an interesting trend in current DBacks pitchers. It seems to me that KT greatly values pitchers who pitch better than their FIP and/or xFIP. I'm sure he probably isn't even aware of it but check out the numbers after the jump.


Someone posted that in the rumor thread that Cahill's FIP worried himso I started checking it out and he has exceeded his career FIp by quite a bit. So I started pulling current DBacks pitchers to see how they compare. Seemed like a lot of them did the same - career ERA exceeds FIP and xFIP. So I pulled every Dback pitcher that threw a pitch for the DBacks last year and their ERA and FIP and xFIP. I also entered IP and sorted by IP so we could weed out the guys who have throw a handful of career IP:


IP
ERA Fip xFIP Fip-era Xfip-era
J Marquis 1675.2 4.55 4.79 4.62 0.24 0.07
Duke 1041.0 4.56 4.31 4.34 -0.25 -0.22
J Saunders 986.2 4.16 4.65 4.52 0.49 0.36
AA Heilman 630.0 4.40 4.22 4.12 -0.18 -0.28
A Galarraga 518.0 4.69 5.34 4.88 0.65 0.19
Ian Kennedy 475.2 3.65 3.89 4.02 0.24 0.37
Owings 473.1 4.91 4.95 4.93 0.04 0.02
Putz 464.1 3.06 3.25 3.37 0.19 0.31
Daniel Hudson 336.0 3.19 3.42 3.88 0.23 0.69
Ziegler 252.0 2.43 3.38 3.72 0.95 1.29
D Hernandez 250.0 4.50 4.92 4.76 0.42 0.26
J Gutierrez 167.1 4.79 4.28 4.24 -0.51 -0.55
Collmenter 154.1 3.38 3.80 4.18 0.42 0.80
E Vasquez 137.0 4.66 4.50 4.90 -0.16 0.24
B enright 136.2 4.87 6.00 5.00 1.13 0.13
Y Brazoban 121.0 4.76 4.37 4.55 -0.39 -0.21
S Demel 62.2 4.88 4.73 4.07 -0.15 -0.81
A Castillo 60.1 4.33 5.02 4.81 0.69 0.48
W Miley 40.0 4.50 5.08 4.35 0.58 -0.15
J Paterson 34.0 2.91 3.44 4.24 0.53 1.33
K Mickolio 31.2 4.83 3.03 4.08 -1.80 -0.75
B Shaw 28.1 2.54 3.52 3.27 0.98 0.73
Z Kroenke 10.2 7.59 7.18 4.91 -0.41 -2.68
Ryan cook 7.2 7.04 4.33 5.80 -2.71 -1.24
J parker 5.2 0.00 3.20 5.42 3.20 5.42







C Breslow 279.0 3.06 3.80 4.40 0.74 1.34
t Cahill 583.0 3.91 4.51 4.23 0.60 0.32







2011 MLB overall
3.94 3.94 3.93

The way it's set up, positive numbers are pitchers who exceed their predicted number and negative numbers are guys who fail to live up to their expected numbers.

I threw in all of MLB for 2011 so you can see that FIP and xFIP pretty fairly assess pitcher skill over many pitchers.

Looking at the guys expected to contribute next year, I see a LOT of guys who have pitched much better than their expected numbers and Breslow & Cahill fit right into that dynamic with HUGE ERA/FIP discrepencies.


Do you suppose KT has something for guys who pitch better than their numbers suggest? (either consciously or subconsciously?)

Just an observation, nothing more.

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