Diamondbacks Winter Meeting Round-up, December 9

by Jim McLennan on Dec 9, 2011 5:00 PM EST in Diamondbacks News

Hearing talks have advanced between Dbacks-A's regarding RHP Trevor Cahill. RHP Jarrod Parker thought to be involved.
-- Nick Piecoro

Sources: #Dbacks close on Cahill. RHP Jarrod Parker, OF Collin Cowgill in play for #Athletics. Could be others coming from A's. #MLB... expected to receive Breslow as well as Cahill
-- Ken Rosenthal

But:

The #Dbacks plan on Parker being their 5th starter so he is NOT in potential deal
-- Bob Nightengale

That's the latest info. What, no Trevor Bauer? But I was told... We'll update as things progress, please discuss and post any verifiable reports in the comments.

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NOPE NOPE NOPE NOPE

Thanks FO, I’ve been waiting for Parker to be a solid starter for us since 2007 and you’ve ruined it in just hours.

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Mr. Hall, you WILL beat it!

by dbacks25 on Dec 9, 2011 5:05 PM EST via mobile reply actions

i have to admit

in terms of risk, Parker holds a lot more risk than Skaggs and Bauer imo

i’m just glad the stupid rumors about Skaggs and Bauer seem to have finally died down. those two are basically untouchable for me.

by blue bulldog on Dec 9, 2011 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, Parker has some real risk

he could also be a big star.

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Dec 9, 2011 5:11 PM EST up reply actions

Well you can have this one then.

Bob Nightengale @BNightengale 2 mins

The #Athletics had targeted #Dbacks No. 1 pick Trevor Bauer in talks in Dallas #mlb

by The Goat on Dec 9, 2011 5:11 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, means nothing

of course they want him – he’s a monster. That’s the game. But I give KT the benefit of the doubt in being able to recognize the big picture.

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Dec 9, 2011 5:15 PM EST up reply actions

Literally impossible

Unless Oakland wants to wait a month to make the trade, then wait six months to get their player.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 5:29 PM EST up reply actions

So can someone please breif me on Cahill?

I cant say that I’ve ever followed the A’s, so if anyone could enlighten me that would be awesome.

"I could have been king, but in my own way I am king. Hail to the king baby." Ash from Army of Darkness

by Turambar on Dec 9, 2011 5:17 PM EST reply actions

sinkerballer

doesn’t miss a whole lot of bats, but generates a ton of groundballs

his contract is interesting. four years and 30 million with two more club options afterwards.

key for him in Arizona will probably be limiting his walks. i’d also feel more comfortable with Cahill if we had an uninjured Drew at SS.

by blue bulldog on Dec 9, 2011 5:20 PM EST up reply actions

In other words

a run of the mill arm.

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Dec 9, 2011 5:22 PM EST up reply actions

not exactly run of the mill

honestly, i think he’s a No. 3 starter, maybe borderline No. 2 starter.

i think moving forward, he’s probably just a notch below IPK and Hudson in ability.

by blue bulldog on Dec 9, 2011 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

Roger that,

Thanks guys.

I’m guessing he has no where near as good of stuff that Webb had?

"I could have been king, but in my own way I am king. Hail to the king baby." Ash from Army of Darkness

by Turambar on Dec 9, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions

Our infield defense does worry me now.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 5:32 PM EST up reply actions

Low 90's sinker, change-up and curve

The sinker moves a lot and he tends to pitch to contact. Lots of groundballs. Could K more but has a lot of sucess pounding his sinker in on the hands. Seemed to get into mechanical funks last year mid-game. Usually got out of them but… The curve is very good when it’s on but sometimes he doesn’t trust it. Spent his rookie year in Oakland throwing almost nothing but fastballs and change-ups. Really likes his change, will throw it 3-2. Dabbles with a slider on occasion… you don’t want that. Excellent fielder and a good pick-off move. Heading into his age 24 season. Very team friendly contract.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Dec 9, 2011 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

Good scouting report

Always liked him. As a 3 4. He’s not a legit number 2. Never will be. I think since KT decided to focus on middle infield defense with McDonald and Hill, I can see going after a sinkerballer. Really he was almost exactly the same guy in 2011 as he was in 2011….except a few more walks and a few more strikeouts. However he was a poster boy for the vagaries of BABIP.

GB% HR/FB K % BB % K/BB FIP x FIP BABIP ERA 2010 56.0 11.2 15.1 8.1 1.87 4.19 3.99 .237 2.97 2011 55.9 11.6 16.3 9.1 1.79 4.10 3.90 .302 4.16

it just seems like weird roster construction to trade pitching for pitching with so many questionable or sub par bats on the roster under control beyond 2012.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Dec 9, 2011 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

cleanup on aisle 3.

sorry, I’ll e mail my little chart to Jim…maybe he can help me edit.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Dec 9, 2011 5:46 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks.

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Dec 9, 2011 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

[Waves mop around]

     GB% HR/FB K % BB % K/BB FIP  xFIP BABIP ERA 
2010 56.0 11.2 15.1 8.1 1.87 4.19 3.99 .237 2.97 
2011 55.9 11.6 16.3 9.1 1.79 4.10 3.90 .302 4.16

"Barry's Puffin has gone red and is hiding under a pirate hat!"

by Jim McLennan on Dec 9, 2011 6:04 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks !

One of these days I’ll get the hang of this……..

Anyway…..

I should have included his LD Rate, which jumped from 15 % to 18.8%, explaining most of the BABIP increase. Line Drive rate can be lucky too…as pitchers don’t really have as much control over that as a lot of people might think.

He is what he is…..a 4 FIP guy who seems likely to look a lot better or worse than that in ERA, depending on whats happening around him.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Dec 9, 2011 6:08 PM EST up reply actions

I think the best way to look at it

Is we’re getting a sure-fire #3 starter with a slim chance to exceed expectations, rather than hoping Cahill can become a TOR guy strictly because of his age. It’s worth noting that his K and BB rates rose last year, so a reasonable best-case scenario where his BB rate drops back down as he matures and his K rate stays high does exist.

Still, a #3 starter who can be worth 2.5 wins a year on that contract has a lot of value, and it’s safe value. Jarrod Parker was extremely valuable, but it wasn’t safe value.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 8:57 PM EST up reply actions

He's also 24.

So he could improve some, particularly in his ability to hold his mechanics. However, anybody reading the word “sinkerballer” and “young” who start thinking “ZOMGZ Brandon Webb?!?!” need to stop – Webb showed a proclivity for missing bats at Cahill’s age that Cahill hasn’t shown. Upside strikes me as maybe along the (purely statistical) lines of what Tim Hudson did last year?

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 5:32 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I'm no fan of 'pitching to contact'

in young arms. Once one becomes a jaded veteran who can wrap batters around their finger, sure, but the D’backs need pitchers who can strike people out.

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Dec 9, 2011 5:34 PM EST up reply actions

Much as I've been anticipating seeing Parker in the rotation,

Parker for Cahill seems fair to me. Parker is an unproven, unknown commodity. Cahill is somewhat proven, and still young with further upside not out of the question.

The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.

by Stupendous Man on Dec 9, 2011 5:21 PM EST via mobile reply actions

The million dollar question is

which Parker is it? The guy whom allegedly throws 98, or the guy I saw struggling at 91?

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Dec 9, 2011 6:03 PM EST up reply actions

Averaged 92.7 and topped out at 96 in his lone start

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=4913&position=P&pitch=FA

This is likely his true velocity range……..although he could be a tick higher .

Keep in mind that 92.7 would put him in the top 25 among MLB starters last year. If he got that up over 93, he is top 15, and pretty much in Max Scherzer territory.

Scherzer might actually be a good comp here….as Parker has similar command issues.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Dec 9, 2011 6:27 PM EST up reply actions

Parker's upside

is actually better than Scherzer’s though, because of the plus secondaries

the thing is that average velocity underrates how much gas Parker has if he wanted to use it. the guy threw a ton of two-seamers in that LAD start

by blue bulldog on Dec 9, 2011 6:30 PM EST up reply actions

This.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 8:58 PM EST up reply actions

91 is the low range on his two-seam

98 is his high range on the four-seam, though it’s probably a bit inflated. I think 90-96 is a safe range considering how different his two-seam and four-seam pitches seem to be.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 8:58 PM EST up reply actions