Diamondbacks working on one-year deal for Kuroda
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 5, 2011 12:48 PM EST
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PrintWith the Dodgers out of the picture after signing Capuano, Kuroda is now considered a real possibility for the Diamondbacks. Kuroda reportedly likes Arizona because of their competitiveness last year and strong rotation. Report from Steve Henson suggests Kuroda and Diamondbacks are discussing a one year deal and Kuroda is dropping his request for a second year player option. With prior suggestions that Kuroda was looking for $12M-$13M per year, if this deal gets done it may spell the end of Saunders' time with the Diamondbacks. This begs the question, which would you rather have for that price, one year of Kuroda or two years of Saunders?
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Shouldn't just hand the rotation spots to the prospects.
They need to earn it in Spring training first. I say sign one of the vets to keep the competition there.
+1,000,000
Talent? Yes. But it takes more than talent. They each have to prove themselves at the major league level.
Is it mid-February yet?
Good piece on Fangraphs
Kuroda a great for for D-backs
"Barry's Puffin has gone red and is hiding under a pirate hat!"
And also Takashi Saito?
Per Steve Henson again
D’backs have Saito as well as Kuroda in their sights. Japanese media to flock to James Beard chef Nobuo Fukuda, across st. from Pizza Bianco
"Barry's Puffin has gone red and is hiding under a pirate hat!"
That would be so awesome
I doubt we could afford both, but one of those two would be fantastic.
6th-Shaw
7th-Saito
8th-Hernandez
9th Putz
that’s pretty solid.
::drool::
Combine Saito and Putz, and between trips to the DL, you’ll wind up with a solid year-and-a-third or year-and-a-half of elite reliever performance. If we pay somewhere around $8-10MM for one year for that while the Phillies are paying Papelbon $44MM over four years for similar production in 2012, it’ll just go to show Towers’ skill in finding relief value.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 5, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
Saito would be a great pick up.
And Kuroda is definitely an upgrade over Saunders.
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
Oh man oh man oh man
THOSE TWO GUYS ARE EXACTLY WHO I WANTED.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 5, 2011 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
+1
would be really exciting to get both these guys on one-year contracts
would be decidedly less exciting to get either of these guys on multi-year contracts
Any proposed contract info on Saito?
Is this another one year rental, or a longer term deal? If we are looking at a longer term deal, I might prefer 2 – 3 years of Saito over one year of Kuroda. I agree it is risky depending on our prospects to fill out the rotation, but it also seems risky depending on Putz and Hernandez to be as good as they were last year (and pitch as often).
If it is one year for either one, I also prefer Kuroda.
by Craig from Az on Dec 5, 2011 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Definitely one-year for either guy
Why would you want a longer commitment to Saito? He’s ancient and has a pretty serious injury history. Shorter is always better for relievers.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 5, 2011 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
Holy Crap!
I had no idea Saito was 41! I looked up his stats and there was only 6 years there so I assumed he was in his prime. Obviously he must have pitched a lot of years in Japan.
by Craig from Az on Dec 5, 2011 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
Yessir
But has been nothing but deadly since coming over.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 5, 2011 8:48 PM EST up reply actions
you know where I can find his stats in Japan?
If he was so good here…
"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi
by CaptainCanuck on Dec 5, 2011 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
Here you go
Japanese stats. Good, but not startling, I’d say. Best year was 2001, when he got 27 saves, with a 1.67 ERA in 64.1 innings.
"Barry's Puffin has gone red and is hiding under a pirate hat!"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 5, 2011 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
thanks sir
I had assumed he was something resembling a legend there. Guess not, and I had completely forgotten he played for the Red Sox.
by CaptainCanuck on Dec 5, 2011 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
I like Saunders, but....
I would love to have Kuroda in the roto for a year, give the prospects more minor league innings and not have to rush them in 2012. Saito would be amazing but if we can’t have both I’d like Kuroda.
by J.RyanWalters on Dec 5, 2011 3:14 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Yes, yes, yes
Given contract lengths and all that, there is no other FA I wanted more this year than Kuroda. Guy has been awesome since joining the big leagues.
Sign Kuroda plz k thx
Bring back Saunders on the one year arb deal and flip him.
kuroda yes plz!
it wud be awesome if the signed kuroda! don’t have to rush propects and when they’re ready move collementer to the bullpen i think he’ll be dominate in there!
What is it with you lurkers
pushing a proven major league starter in Collmenter to the bullpen?
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 5, 2011 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Exactly
You know who else would dominate in the bullpen? Ian Kennedy. I say we move him there without delay.
by Nonpartisan on Dec 5, 2011 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
srry dude im new always read the articles but hardly comment
it’s either that or trade him. the more batters face him the more they pick up on his delievery. plus he only has 2 pitches and really weak curveball.
by rd33 on Dec 5, 2011 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Opinions are like belly buttons
everyone has one. The problem you face is that this topic had exhausted during the season, and Collmenter overcame nearly every single objection raised by the people here.
Is it mid-February yet?
ok im tlking about next season and the many afterwards.
im not saying move him to the bullpen rite now…..when if skaggs, parker or bauer get called up “to me” he seems like to be the most likely to moved out of the rotation.
If Skaggs, Parker, and Bauer
all pitch at their ceilings, then yes, he will be moved to long relief. The chances of all three of them pitching at their ceilings reliably for the foreseeable future? Less than the chances of Collmenter maintaining his current level of production, IMO.
yeah but...
if all three of them pitched to their ceilings, we would have to move even more guys from the rotation.
For the team to have to consider moving Collmenter to the pen is for two of Bauer/Skaggs/Parker/Miley/Enright/Saunders to pitch better than him. That seems like a distinct possiblility (a good problem to have, don’t get me wrong).
We all know the team will need well more than 5 SP to work next season. But lets be realistic that there is a chance that we will be having the “Collmenter to the pen?” conversation at some point in the year…even if he is having another good year. Is anyone claiming that they would consider moving Kennedy/Hudson/Bauer/Parker/Skaggs to the pen before contemplating Josh?
by Counsellmember on Dec 5, 2011 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You're right
I miscounted — sorry about that.
However, that also assumes that all five of the starters who are better than Collmenter stay healthy all year — this includes a 37-year-old pitcher, a guy who’s had Tommy John, and a guy whose long-tossing routine makes him potentially a prime candidate for injury. Sure doesn’t hurt to have Collmenter as insurance, even in a situation like that.
no
that also assumes that all five of the starters who are better than Collmenter stay healthy all year
It only requires that there are 5 other pitchers healthy at any one time during the year.
The first time we have 6 healthy pitchers in any given rotation turn, one of them is going to have to be skipped/moved/sent down. Of the main SP in the system, who would you skip before Collmenter? Kennedy? Hudson? Kuroda? Parker? Bauer?
Regardless of who you choose from that list, there is going to be a discussion about sending Collmenter to the pen, because he is perceived as having the 2 pitch combination that would do well there. I think that’s pretty much all rd33 was saying.
At some point this season, we may face the possibility of needing to send a “proven major league starter” or a top SP prospect to the pen. Collmenter seems to be toward the top of that list.
by Counsellmember on Dec 6, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
Why are you so determined to dump Collmenter?
in my view, if he gets off to a good start, he’s going to get All Star consideration next season. How is that a highway to relief?
What’s in it for you that Collmenter gets sent to the bullpen?
Is it mid-February yet?
I do not advocate dumping Collmenter
I have been on the Collmenter as SP wagon from the start.
But how can you ignore the possibility that no matter how well he pitches, he might be forced to the pen by other pitchers?
Would you keep Bauer or Parker in the minors all year if they have been dominating? Would you send Hudson or Kennedy to the minors if they struggle at some point? Would you send Kuroda to the pen to make room for Collmenter?
Those are 5 pitchers I listed that have a very good chance to be in our rotation this year (since this is a Kuroda thread). Collmenter makes 6. If at any point in the season they are all healthy and in the majors at the same time, one will have to be moved elsewhere. Sending Collmenter there has to be in the conversation. That’s all I’m saying.
In addition, having Collmenter in the pen allows him to possibly work long innings, and be available to start on a moment’s notice.
Seriously, tell me which one of the 5 pitchers I listed you would rather send to the minors/bullpen/trade over putting Collmenter in relief, because that is crux of this issue (again, a great problem to have).
by Counsellmember on Dec 6, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
YES EXACTLY
Thats all im trying to say! the 5 spot is gonna be a rookie (or enright) and 3 spot mostly likely be a vet.
Just wondering
but why would we have to move him to the bullpen, necessarily? If he is still being an above average starter, then it seems to me he would be a very good trading chip come the deadline, and maybe we can pick up some pieces that we might not be able to get otherwise.
I think that Josh isn’t probably going to be on this rotation long term, but he probably will be on a rotation for the forseeable future. No sense wasting a good opportunity for a trade by just moving him to the bullpen
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 5, 2011 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
Because some posters may not actually be D'Back fans
and they FEAR the Tomahawk. Others live and die for their moneyball saber stuff and refuse to believe their eyes – this guy with an average fastball is really tough to square up.
Is it mid-February yet?
On the contrary
the SABR guys are the ones the LIKE pitchers like Collmenter – good statistics even if he doesn’t have the monster fastball. It’s the traditionalists that don’t like SPs that aren’t 6-5, 230 and throw 85+.
by Craig from Az on Dec 5, 2011 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
Well, the sabr guys here were ready to relegate him
to long relief very quickly: “one and done,” “once exposed,” et cetera. But somewhere he found an extra gear, learned how to get major league batters out, and became a very reliable starter.
Is it mid-February yet?
That was pretty much
Based on scouting reports, actually.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 5, 2011 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
They were wrong, too, apparently
well, the main thing is, he was a contributor in the rotation which is nothing to sneeze at.
Is it mid-February yet?
The scouts were wrong?!
Gasp! I’m shocked. Shocked, I say.
It just means
they weren’t well versed in geometry.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 5, 2011 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
I was a doubter
I stupidly thought they should give Micah a shot over Josh. This is why Gibby is the manager and I comment on the Internet. Collmenter did seem to fall off a bit for a while, but he regrouped and came back with a vengeance. By the end of the season, the only starting pitcher I trusted more than Collmenter was Kennedy. Yes, I’m counting Hudson in that, too.
by azshadowwalker on Dec 7, 2011 1:22 AM EST up reply actions
You would expect this
And it held true in the minors, but watching him absolutely obliterate a darn good Brewers lineup in the playoffs after facing them several times in the regular season has to make you wonder if he could have picked up an extra trick. Personally, I’m inclined to think it’s the curveball you mentioned – it was pretty terrible at the start of the season, but he managed to locate a couple for get-me-over strikes later in the year, which was big for him.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 5, 2011 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
Absolutely
That was the best pitching performance by any starter in that series. Pretty darn impressive.
Ehh
it’d be ludicrous to simply move him there after such a good year, but I think he eventually winds up there anyway. But we have to see first, because I’d love to be wrong about this.
"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi
by CaptainCanuck on Dec 5, 2011 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
How is it
you never have anything to add to the conversation? You’re constantly bashing sabr and stat guys when last time i checked baseball was a game of numbers. Don’t bother responding i made this account just to say this. Oh and Collmenter will eventually be moved to the bullpen when the Big 4 prospects come up next year. Deal with it.
I will deal with it
You could be right, but those kids still have to get major league hitters out and do it better than the players in the starting rotation. It could happen, but until they prove themselves, they’re just wannabees.
Next, I have a PhD in an applied mathematics field. I have published multiple mathematics-based articles in peer reviewed journals, thus I am rather well versed in statistics and what they mean, and more importantly, what they don’t.
Baseball may be a game of numbers, but it’s also a game of people, of strategy, and a game of mirrors. Very few math majors have ever played baseball beyond Little League. Very few people who have played baseball beyond Little League have studied numbers at the undergraduate, graduate, and post-graduate levels. I have.
Are you familiar with the Synthetic/Analytic distinction? It’s sophomore college level philosophy, but it seem to apply to the statistics/scouting controversy, with statistics taking the part of analytic philosophy, and scouting taking the place of empirical observation. Guess what? Neither system is consistent/complete, which I will kindly explain for you as I suspect you aren’t familiar with the problem: a system cannot simultaneously be both consistent and complete. Scouting needs numbers (but numbers at one level do not necessarily project onto the next), and numbers need real world grounding (if you don’t apply the right metric, if it even exists, your numbers mean nothing).
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 6, 2011 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Hmmmmmm...
Very few math majors have ever played baseball beyond Little League.
::shifts around awkwardly::
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 7, 2011 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
Not a math major...
but my feelings about stats are fairly similar. I don’t hate them. I even look at them from time-to-time. I just don’t think they’re the be-all and end-all. Sports are about people. People don’t always act consistently. They do things they’ve never done before—good and bad—and that is why I love sports.
If numbers are your thing, have a blast. I have no problem with that. I just don’t like the dismissive attitude I’ve seen so often towards people who aren’t into stats, as if we are just uninformed and need to be “educated.” No, we just see sports in a different way. (And I really hate when experienced baseball players are treated like idiots because they don’t buy into stats. )
by azshadowwalker on Dec 7, 2011 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
How is it you never have anything to add to the conversation? You’re constantly bashing sabr and stat guys when last time i checked baseball was a game of numbers.
Says the person who created an account just to bash a well liked and respected member of our community!
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 7, 2011 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not quite "just"
His first comment. But, yeah… A little more participation before ripping into existing members would be recommended…
"Barry's Puffin has gone red and is hiding under a pirate hat!"
It would be a good way
to get a little good will. Also, adding something to the conversation about why he disagreed with NASCAR beyond just saying that baseball was a game of numbers would have been good to
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 7, 2011 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
I yr of Kuroda, definitely
He would seemingly be an upgrade over Saunders. And it would allow a bit more time to get the prospects ready. I can’t imagine also getting Saito, but that sounds kind of awesome. Anything that might relieve some pressure on Hernandez/Putz sounds good.
Agree on Saito, but I don't see it happening
I just don’t see KT going for a free agent reliever that multiple teams are pursuing. He made his reputation by creating good bullpens on limited budgets. Not sure a Saito signing would fit that pattern.
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 5, 2011 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
Saito is an accident waiting to happen
The guy can’t stay healthy…he’s proven that…
I’d rather have TWO years with Saunders over ONE year of Kuroda any day! I say let Kuroda go back to Japan and pitch if he can’t get on with any team
I got sprayed by Ryan Roberts!!!
by Rockkstarr12 on Dec 5, 2011 5:52 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I am with you Rockk
I voted for and would take Saunders
by AzDbackfanInDc on Dec 5, 2011 7:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
One year
of Kuroda, sorry Rockkstarr. Anyone longer than one year is probably going to end up blocking prospects by the end of his contract, and with the pitching prospects coming up through the minors, that is the last thing I want right now. Unless we trade of gobs of pitchers this offseason, a two year contract for basically any FA starter is ludicrous
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
I'm not even sure Kuroda is actually worth one season
he’s 37, which in pitcher terms is like saying he was born right around the time Arizona became a state. I know, he’s savvy and all that, but I really don’t see him being that big an improvement over Saunders.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 5, 2011 6:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Japanese arms?
I’ve always been under the impressions (Dice-K) aside that Japanese arms tend to stay healthier, longer, possibly because they aren’t really fire-ballers even early in their career.
This could be true
I don’t know. His ERA wasn’t bad last year, but I’m not sure he’s a substantial upgrade, given he’d only be around for a year. If we were to bring someone in, I’d like to see a big arm with a proven track record, but that’s just me.
Is it mid-February yet?
Yes he's old
But if Saunders regresses, that extra 2-4 million to sign Kuroda will be a pretty decent upgrade.
I won’t be too upset if they settle for Saunders. Just disappointed. I do like the fact that Saunders has shown urgency to come back. If he wants a two year deal he better be willing to take a pay cut though. I think in 2013 he will be blocking some of the younger arms, so I would be against that.
I am betting Joe would take a pay cut just to remain here
It’s obvious he wants to return. He’s been quite vocal about that.
I got sprayed by Ryan Roberts!!!
If he takes a paycut
and also considers getting rid of the 2nd year, at least guaranteed, then I wouldn’t mind it at all
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 6, 2011 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
+1
agree with all of this.
Kuroda is a healthy upgrade over Saunders for 2011, in my mind. Personally, I think his numbers for all 4 of his years in MLB have been rock solid. Little injury concern from ‘09, uptick in fly balls last year, but he’s been getting better every year. I’ll take him on a one year deal to be an excellent bridge to our top prospects, whenever they are ready.
And I agree Saunders would be a fine plan B. But I think Kuroda is the nice “win now” kind of upgrade that would cost a few extra million now. At the trade deadline, we’d be lucky not to lose a Top 5 prospect for a similar pitcher.
And, anyway, 2 years for Saunders? I really don’t get why we would do that when the club was so aggressive in the final weeks of the season with Bauer and Parker. I really think they intend to have one of those guys in the opening day rotation.
by Counsellmember on Dec 5, 2011 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
Numbers show Kuroda a much stronger pitcher
Age is a factor, but the recent track records show Kuroda is far better.
Kuroda’s numbers the last two years show him averaging around 200 innings and an average ERA of 3.18 and average WAR of 3.25
Saunders is nowhere near that level of production. Over the last two years he has averaged about 208 innings of work and an average ERA of 4.07 and average WAR of 1.35.
Saunders had a good year for the Diamondbacks, but he outperformed his peripherals. Kuroda just has strong peripherals to star with (e.g. 7.17 K/9 in 2011).
Now, for the 'x' factor
how does Kuroda’s team perform overall with him on the roster?
How has Saunders’ teams performed overall with him on the roster?
I really don’t know, but I do know that some players elevate their team more than other players, for whatever reason. Dave Stewart never put up great ERAs or strikeouts, but his teams always seemed to be in the post season.
Is it mid-February yet?
Its funny
but for the first month of last season, I would have been THRILLED had they DFA’d him. But that body-sacrificing play at home plate, and the way the team responded to that changed my opinion big time.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 5, 2011 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Saunders has consistently outperformed his peripherals
For pretty much his entire career. FIP hates Saunders. Saunders doesn’t seem to care. :)
"Barry's Puffin has gone red and is hiding under a pirate hat!"
Oddly enough
me neither… ;-)
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 5, 2011 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
But, to be fair
His peripherals were among the worst of his career last year, yet he had his second-lowest ERA. I think regression is to be expected. I think his career averages give us a good idea of his true talent level, actually.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 5, 2011 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
Doesn't matter whether you go with
Peripherals or straight numbers… Kuroda is better.
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
Definitely
Whether or not he’s $4-5MM better is a fair debate, but I’d lean towards Kuroda. I would prefer Saunders & Saito to Kuroda alone, probably.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 6, 2011 2:05 AM EST up reply actions
Oh, no argument
But saying “Saunders outperformed his peripherals,” as it it’s a mark against him, is not quite appreciating what they indicate. When a player consistently outperforms his peripherals, it becomes more reasonable to expect this to continue, since it suggests there’s an aspect to his game not accurately reflected in BB, K and HR. Which, frankly, doesn’t surprise me at all.
"Barry's Puffin has gone red and is hiding under a pirate hat!"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 6, 2011 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
The numbers may say otherwise
but my gut feeling is “No” on Kuroda, based entirely on my reaction the last couple of years to the statement “Tonight’s opposing pitcher will be Hiroki Kuroda,” which leans more to “All right!” than “Oh, man, we are in trouble.” (Highly scientific, isn’t it?)
In case we do sign him, does he prefer the single name “Kuroda” (like Ichiro?) Seems most of what I’ve read about him hardly mentions his first name.
Riding the Gibbytrain since 2011!
by TylerO on Dec 5, 2011 7:39 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
And Joe Saunders surely strikes fear in the hearts of opposing batters.
“Who’s pitching tonight against us?” Joe Saunders….." God help us all"
by txzona on Dec 5, 2011 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Update
@nickpiecoro
Nick Piecoro
Dbacks GM Kevin Towers says he made an offer to LHP Joe Saunders today. Indications are it was a two-year deal.
I really hope it’s a lowball offer. So low Saunders won’t accept haha….
At this point
I see no reason why we wouldn’t at least try that. There’s a ton of Winter Meetings time left, no reason to try to get everything done ASAP.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 5, 2011 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
?
if Saunders agrees to the offer we will not be able to sign Kuroda….
Oh well...
My attitude would be different if we were talking about Kershaw though. Of course I can’t stand him…as long as he’s on another team.
Is it mid-February yet?
If it's a low-ball offer
I could see it making more sense. The lower it is, the easiler it’d be for us to trade him at the deadline.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 5, 2011 11:15 PM EST up reply actions
I think
I’d rather 1 year of Kuroda than 2 of Saundo right now. Kuroda should be a more solid #3, but if he isn’t next year than it’ll be easier to dump him and find someone else (or let the prospects grow some more). 2 years of Saundo limits our options.
Tomorrow is another day.
Don't think a 2 year deal would limit options,
since he could be traded at any time, with higher value since his first FA year would be locked up.
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
I don't
think we’d be able to trade him for much next year or the year after, so we’d be putting money in a guy over 2 years instead of consolidating it down to one. If neither is a long-term solution, having only 1 year means that we have more flexibility in 2013, instead of having to accept that we either have a guy back, or that we’re eating part of the salary. Plus Kuroda is a better pitcher.
Tomorrow is another day.
Don't need to get much for Saunders to do better than
what what’s to be gotten if he isn’t signed. Kuroda has been a better pitcher, but there is no guarantee that age and Chase Field won’t catch up to him.
Two years of Saunders for a little more than a 1 year Kuroda rental sounds like a better deal to me.
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
kind of off topic but....
has there been any indication of how many (if any) of the upcoming rookies we’ll be starting next year?
I know Parker, Skaggs and Bauer are all going to be given a chance to prove themselves, but does anyone know if they’ll be fighting for one opening or two?
Much of this I’m sure depends on the outcome of what you’ve all been discussing, yet I just wanted to see if anyone heard anything specific
"I could have been king, but in my own way I am king. Hail to the king baby." Ash from Army of Darkness
I'd assume one of them makes the team out of spring training
And I don’t think it’s necessarily one of the big three. Could be Miley.
by CaptainCanuck on Dec 5, 2011 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
I, too, think one out of Spring Training
My guess would be Parker. We have to see Bauer at some point in the upcoming season, though, right? I mean, right?? LOL. I am less sure about Skaggs. I wonder if they might want to give him another year in the minors.
My 2 Cents on the thread
1.) Kuroda obviously a better pitcher than Saunders……however the caveat with him is why did his line drive jump all the way to 22% ? His hit rate per balls in play didn’t go up along with the large spike in LD Rate, which indicates he might have been a bit lucky.
You get a hint of this from SIERA, available on Fangraphs, which take into account the type of balls hit to calculate what a likely ERA would result. It was 4.22 in 2011.
But that is really reaching for statistical nuggets. The vast majority of information, both subjective and objective suggest he is still very good.
2) Collmenter exceeded my expectations in 2011 for sure. But it should be pointed out that
A) Only 7 guys in MLB with 150 IP had a lower BABIP than Collmenter’s .255. He may be tough to square up, but he ain’t THAT tough. That number will regress and he will give up more hits.
B.) His Walk rate of 1.6 per 9 IP was HALF his minor league average. That number is very likely to go up too. Unless you believe he suddenly became Greg Maddux. (Career 1.8 BB/9)
He’s not a good candidate to repeat a 1.07 WHIP, and frankly if his WHIP is under 1.25 and his ERA is under 3.80 next year I’ll eat my hat. That wouldn’t be a bad result mind you. I would actually be happy with 190 IP of 3.80 ERA from Collmenter. That would make him pretty valuable. But thats an upside projection in my humble opinion.
Hope I’m wrong.
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
What if....
Saunders accepts a low-ball two-year deal because he wants to stay in AZ…then signing Kuroda for one-year becomes a reality. How would that go down if the Dbacks trade Saunders AFTER he accepts the low-ball offer. That might not go down very well from Saunders’ perspective. And furthermore, does having Saunders signed to a lower two-year deal make him more valuable as a trade chip?
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
i just don't see it
i understand that ppl think Saunders wants to stay here and are optimistic about signing him below market value
but i feel like the reality is that that rarely happens
Piecoro's reporting the offer is 2 years 12 million.
Not a terrible deal for us. Saunders could be worth 6 million a year, and like I said before we would have no problem trading him mid-season.
But still sticking to 12 million 1 year for Kuroda> 2 years 12 million for Saunders.
Did he tweet that number ?
I read his blog that said a two year offer but didn’t see a dollar amount.
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
It was in the article
The Diamondbacks are rumored to be being willing to go to two years and $12 million on Saunders.
fair enough
if this really is the deal, i will be extremely surprised, and frankly, there’s not much i could complain about. i agree that i still like Kuroda more at 1 year/12 million, but w/e
i will complain though if Saunders’ deal is anything more than 14 million
Kuroda, any day and twice on Sundays
I’d love to see Kuroda here. I was really hoping he’d end up in Arizona at the trade deadline. I’m not a huge fan of Saunders as a pitcher, but that’s not really the issue here. I think Kuroda could help this team. I also think the one-year deal would be ideal to give the young talent time to develop without blocking them. I’ll be bummed if the team ends up signing Saunders if signing Kuroda for a year was doable. (Not that the FO would let that be known, I guess.)
In some other post season news
Dodgers are to sign Aaron Harang. Rays to sign Juan Miranda.
The proudest (and possibly only) Diamondbacks fan in the state of Louisiana
by Bryan J. Boltik on Dec 7, 2011 10:29 AM EST reply actions
and...
Padres get Street from Rockies. I’m thinking the Rox might be our biggest competition for Kuroda with the money they just freed up.
by Counsellmember on Dec 7, 2011 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
I just heard
that the Yankees and Red Sox are in on it to now, so there goes that. Unfortunant because I think any pitcher would chose Chase Field over Coors any day of the week
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 7, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
Still up to the K-man
AZ is closer to the West coast and japan than those other places. He still might be valuing things other than money. But that is just be trying to justify it to myself.
by Counsellmember on Dec 7, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
Bnightengale says "Dbacks pushing hard for Gio"
On his twitter. I saw it on the espn page so I couldn’t click it to properly quote it
Hard to believe
Four years of arbitration control seems against the point of having so much young, cheap pitching. We’d probably have to give up a top prospect to get him, which irks me. Hopefully it’s more in the Holmberg vein than the Parker vein. If it’s in the Parker vein, I’ll be pretty angry.
At least the AL/NL switch will help if this goes down.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 7, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't.
Three of Collmenter, Holmberg, Corbin, Miley, Owings, Pollock, Borchering, and Eaton. The two most valuable years of Gonzalez’s career are already likely gone (his two pre-arb years, as a Super Two arb guy). Wouldn’t give up an elite guy who has potential to easily be as good as Gonzalez (and more) with those first minimum-salary years of control still remaining.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 7, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
this upcoming year
would still be fairly valuable, since he’s projected as a $3.5-4 million arb guy at MLBTR
obviously three of the group of prospects you suggested would be our best hope. in the e-mail i just sent you, i actually don’t think giving up Parker in a trade would necessarily be bad from an EV standpoint, but i do think that if we’re going to trade one of the Big 4, i’d rather us trade for a bat than a pitcher
interesting to note too that A’s need outfielders. they may want Pollock, who might be a good enough prospect that we can downgrade the pitcher to either Corbin/Holmberg instead of Parker. i’m guessing though that the A’s want premium talent as opposed to depth.
I obviously think it would be best to keep Parker and Skaggs
But Gio having another 4 years left of control is very tempting.
He's also really short and throws really hard.
Let’s realize that he’s a pretty risky asset. There’s a reason the A’s are marketing him now.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 7, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
I recall Brandon Webb being fairly durable through his age-29 season
Just sayin’. You really never know, and Gonzalez isn’t built particularly sturdily.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 7, 2011 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
Idea!!!
Parra! They have an enormous outfield, so Parra’s great LF glove will be all the more valuable to them, and his doubles approach fits their park awfully well. Give up Parra, Holmberg, and Miley for Gio, let Pollock, Eaton, and Krauss duke it out for LF reps in 2012. I’d do it.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 7, 2011 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Lopsided for who, Arizona?
Don’t underestimate Parra’ value.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 7, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
A light hitting corner outfielder?
Parra is a decent player, but aren’t the A’s trying to rebuild? Parra is under control for the same amount of time as Gio.
The bottom line is that a team like the Yankees or the Tigers will offer much more. That package will quickly be turned down. Other teams will be willing to give up their top prospects.
Everyone wants Gio, so it’s going to cost a lot to land him. I think he’s better than CJ Wilson and look at all the demand + money that he’s getting.
Tigers
won’t offer more. they already said no, to giving up Jacob Turner.
but
the rest of the market probably doesn’t think Gio is as good as CJ Wilson
I disagree with that
Gio is cheaper,younger, and has much better stuff.
Most teams only want to offer CJ four years.
Detroit said no on Justin Turner
I think you’re kind of overrating Gio here. He’s far from an ace.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 7, 2011 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
I never said he was.
There’s very few aces in my mind. Halladay, Hernandez, Lincecum, Lee, Verlander, and maybe Kershaw. That’s about it.
I would probably enclude
Cain in that list to. If he was on any other rotation, I think he would be considered an elite pitcher much more frequently
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 7, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think those guys would get a deal done.
I’d be happy if Skaggs turns out as good as Gio.We could have a rotation of Kennedy, Gonzalez, Hudson, Bauer, and Parker until at least 2016. Justin Upton is signed until 2016….that’s a four year window to win a title.
If you insist on keeping Parker and Skaggs, then you’d probably have to give up a combination of Davidson,Pollock,Holmberg, and Corbin.
IPK
we only have IPK for four more years i believe. may be the same for Hudson too, not sure
the thing is, IPK, Huddy, Gio all get expensive at the same time. i guess we will probably trade IPK after two years or something.
i don’t know. we definitely won’t need to trade Skaggs. i’m guessing A’s ask for Parker in a package back for Gio. i think it’s close to fair value. but i’d rather trade Parker for a bat, than trade Parker for a pitcher. it seems like we’re approaching diminishing marginal returns in terms of getting a pitcher for the future…
tell that to the owners...
they’re the ones who carry the pursestrings
if they want to up salary to above $100 million then i’m all for that. otherwise, there’s no way we could fit all four of Gio, IPK, Hudson, Upton’s contracts in 2014-2015
And we are still paying for that.
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Mr. Hall, you WILL beat it!
by dbacks25 on Dec 7, 2011 2:55 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
i think the surplus values might be pretty similar though
4 years of Arb for Gio. so 2 total years worth of surplus value, if you go by the 20-40-60-80 percent model of Arb raises. 25% case of avg 2 WAR or less? that’d be a total of 4 WAR of surplus value over the next four years, which is about $20 million
i think Parker’s EV surplus over the next six years is probably around there right?
20-40-60-80 model is awful.
If Gio makes $4MM next year, do you really expect him to be worth $20MM? Because he never has been in his career and has kept his HR/FB awfully low in the last couple years.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 7, 2011 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
you misunderstood
he’s worth $20 million in surplus over the next four years, not each year
I wasn't talking about that.
If he’s worth 20% of his real value in 2012 and makes $4MM through Arb1, he should be worth $20MM. I highly doubt he ends up being worth $20MM.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 7, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
it's based on an average estimate
and i was being conservative by saying he’d avg 2 WAR the next few years. if he were worth $20MM next year, he’d have $16MM of surplus value wrapped up already
i don’t think it’d be difficult at all for him to be worth $20MM of surplus over the next four years. i’d definitely wager 50/50 on it.
I'm just saying
That’s why the 20-40-60-80 thing is worthless – he won’t be worth five times the amount of money he’s paid in 2012. If he hits 2 wins, he’ll be paid about half of his market value in 2012 If he hits 3 wins, about a third. After three more years of raises, the odds that he’ll be worth much of anything in 2015 are pretty slim. We just shouldn’t use such an imprecise measure of arbitration costs to try to calculate an exact measure of worth.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 7, 2011 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
then what do you think
his surplus value is over the next four years?
Man,
That’d take forever to calculate. I’ll give you some groundwork, but I’ve got finals. :-)
If he’s a 3-win guy for the next four years (he’s in his prime, it’s a round number, high-walk guys are volatile, et al), that’s 12 wins. He’s making $4MM this year. Now, I have no idea what kind of arbitration comparables there are for “three-win pitcher”, so that’s where stuff gets annoying… I have no idea. It’d also require projecting win/$ values, which would require a deeper look into the trends of baseball inflation over the last few years.
In fairness to Gio, you also have to weigh in his B-R WAR some – he was worth a full five wins last year because he beat his FIP so handily. However, his career fWAR/bWAR is… 7.3/7.4 (I can’t make this up). So you have to decide: he’s beat his FIP the last two years by significant amounts, so is it the park depressing his BABIP, or is he just one of “those guys” or is it a skill that he picked up after his ’09 season?
I could see his arb payments going roughly along the lines of $4MM/$6.5MM/$9MM/$11.5MM – I see no reason why he shouldn’t pass Saunders’ projected arb salary by his third go-round in arbitration. If he’s worth $15MM a year, that makes him worth $29MM. Great. If he’s a 2.5-win guy and wins go at $5MM a pop, you’re left with a $19MM guy.
Obviously, if he gets hurt at some point or fades into the Oliver Perez abyss – c’mon, we need to consider this, Ollie was once a budding ace – things get really ugly for us (side point: Scott Kazmir is considering buying the naming rights to the Oliver Perez abyss; the Marlins are rumored to be interested as well). We need to be worried about more than simple attrition or regression risk here, the dude walked over 5 batters per nine just two years ago.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 12:56 AM EST up reply actions
after all that work
it doesn’t look like we disagree all that much on Gio’s value
Not really
I think Gio’s risk is enormous.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
Don't like this at all
That’s a high Whip and BB rate for a guy who plays in a pitcher’s park. If our offer is on par with the rumors circulating for other teams (Dom Brown), I am wholly against this.
by Counsellmember on Dec 7, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
dom brown's stock is dropping
it’s more telling that the Tigers rejected the A’s after the A’s asked for Jacob Turner
by most counts Parker is a better prospect than Turner (and Skaggs is definitely a better prospect than Turner), so it’s possible we wouldn’t have to give up one of those two
don't get me wrong though
i like dom brown a lot, i just don’t think the rest of the market likes him all that much
If Domonic Brown is being offered
Nobody will put together a better package, at least if you ask me.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 7, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
yeah not sure who rejected who
in the Dom Brown for Gio talks…
Rosenthal
#DBacks on Cahill as well as Gio, also after Kuroda. Would need to give Skaggs for Gio not Cahill. Kuroda just costs $$$. #MLB #Athletics
He'd be a heck of a lot better than Joe Saunders.
His ground ball rates are elite.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 7, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
Cahill scares me a little
but i don’t mind picking him up since we wouldn’t have to trade one of the Big 4 for him
Don't like the idea of giving up Skaggs for Gio
Would we be back giving up top prospects to get Skaggs back 4 years from now?
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 7, 2011 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
MLB Network suggest Kuroda may still happen
#Dodgers – MLB Network reporting Hiroki Kuroda and #dbacks “might” be close to a deal.
I would be okay with
a Saunders for Verlander swap. We would even throw in the chips and guacamole.
Is it mid-February yet?
Yum.
Guacamole.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 12:57 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, we didn't have so much success with
the salsa, so I thought we’d throw in guacamole instead.
Is it mid-February yet?
Back to Kuroda
I’m still holding out hope, despite these ridiculous rumors with the A’s.
Other teams looking at Kuroda:
Rockies- have their hands in a lot of pies. Not a ton of money to work with; probably only one big move. I think they are our biggest competition.
Yankees- The Darvish posting news is huge. It delights me to say that I think the Yankees are being forced into budget consciousness this year because of all the bloated contracts they’ve handed out the last half decade. Despite their feigned disinterest, I expect them to wait for Darvish and bid heavily. Hopefully Kuroda will be ours by then.
Red Sox- Same deal with Darvish. Also not a lot of money to play with despite who they are. I think the whole in RF is a bigger concern than their 4th starter, and Beltran makes a good fit.
Everyone else- I don’t know. Most rumors about Kuroda interest are from teams in the East. I am still hoping AZ holds a tie-breaker being the furthest west team.
Kuroda is still the crown jewel
Given the market at this point, I’d be satisfied giving him two years, really. Or one year with an enormous buyout on a second year club option. Gio Gonzalez reeks of Oliver Perez and Trevor Cahill reeks of mid-rotation starter. Not worth giving up assets who could be TOR starters for.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
i still don't think
we would need to give up a lot of assets to get Cahill
we don't think so
but billy beane sure does.
"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd
Sounding like we would
Crazy, but probably the case.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
All the Kuroda willing to pitch in the East have me worried for Dbacks' chances
But I think you’re right, Darvish posting late could block out the big dogs in the AL East. Yankees financial concerns are obvious – trying to unload Burnett to gain financial flexibility – good luck with that.
Agree, the Rox seem out of it – probably need to get Cuddyer now that they traded Stewart.
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 8, 2011 9:46 PM EST up reply actions
Depending on how much of Burnett's salary they're willing to eat
I’d seriously look into it. Give him three months to see if his issues as a starter will regress to his FIP (because we don’t really know), and if they don’t, move him to the bullpen when one of the prospects is ready. His fastball/curveball combo would make him an absolutely elite reliever – like, one of the best in the game. If we’re paying something like $7-8MM per year, that’s a freaking bargain.
Again, all depends on what NY will eat from his contract.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
Really? $7-8MM for a reliever on AZ's budget
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 8, 2011 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
If he's a closer
Probably an overstatement. Actually, definitely an overstatement. But if he’s the elite closer I think he can be, it’d be market value at least. He’d be better than Heath Bell…
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 8, 2011 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
That is market price for a closer, but is Burnett isn't closer material
He is a power pitcher who is losing his fastball. He still throws it 56% of the time and it was the least valuable pitch in baseball in 2011 (-34runs)
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 8, 2011 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
It was the least valuable pitch in baseball
Because he couldn’t spot it for six innings. Closers don’t have that issue, and his velocity would rise in relief.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 9, 2011 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
AJ Burnett has attitude issues as well
Who wants a hotheaded guy in their clubhouse? Not me!
I got sprayed by Ryan Roberts!!!
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