Who will have better 2012 Season, Bauer or Skaggs ?
by shoewizard on Dec 31, 2011 1:39 AM EST
Email
Print
Simple question:
Who will have the better 2012 season, Trevor Bauer or Tyler Skaggs ? By definition, producing anything above replacement level in the majors trumps anything that is done in the minors.
Bauer showed off his great stuff in both Visalia and Mobile, striking out 43 in 25.2 IP, for an incredible 15.1 K/9. But he was undone a bit by walks, (12 of them or 4.2 per nine) 3 homers, and especially a .429 BABIP in Mobile. His FIP was less than half his 5.96 ERA
Skaggs, who is 6 months younger than Bauer, had the more "accomplished" season, winning minor league pitcher of the year for the organization. 11.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 4.04 k?bb ration, to go along with just a 0.6 HR/9 actually gave Skaggs a lower FIP than ERA for the season.
44 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I voted Bauer
because I think he will get the first shot out of spring training and therefore be in the majors longer. Just a wild guess.
Skaggs
Even if Bauer lives up to his hype, it took pitchers like Koufax and Ryan more than a season to overcome their early control problems.
"At times I think there are no words
But these to tell me what's true
There are no truths outside The Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
I voted for Skaggs
to make the score 9-9
by AzDbackfanInDc on Dec 31, 2011 12:55 PM EST reply actions
i voted Skaggs
it might end up being wrong, just because i feel like the org will probably push Bauer to the majors
but my personal philosophy is that BB rates are a good proxy to get a feel for whether a pitching prospect is ready for the majors, because if you can’t throw it over the plate in the minors, then you’re going to be in a hell of a lot of trouble once you reach the majors. i would want to see Bauer drop his BB/9 to under 3 or his BB% to be around 9%, for me to feel comfortable calling him up to the majors (a strong showing of control during spring training would do it for me as well)
also, Skaggs actually had basically the same strikeout percentage as Bauer in AA. Bauer’s K/9 in AA just looks a lot better because he faced a lot more batters (through more BB, and getting unlucky on BABIP in a small sample size).
Not sure why people think Skaggs doesn't
Have huge upside (not saying anyone here) but he’s rarely described as having high potential. Most scouting reports have him as a future #3 guy. The guy lead the minors in K’s and K/9 at 11.4 with good control. His frame is ideal to add some strength plus he’s only 20. Who’s to say he won’t be throwing in the mid 90’s down the road and becoming a borderline ace?
by Husk on Dec 31, 2011 2:54 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Didn't they think like that several years ago about guy who
wasn’t big enough to be an effective starter? I think his name was Pedro.
"At times I think there are no words
But these to tell me what's true
There are no truths outside The Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
for what it's worth
this is what Baseball America had to say about him:
The Future: Originally projected as a No. 3 starter, Skaggs has revised that outlook and now looks like he can pitch at the front of a rotation.
I do think though that people underestimate just how uncommon it is for a guy as young as Skaggs, and a lefty at that, to dominate the way he did this year. He’s definitely the best LH pitching prospect in the minors for me, not named Matt Moore.
by blue bulldog on Dec 31, 2011 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
From what I saw of him
he struck me pretty much as a run of the mill lefthander, nothing special.
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
by NASCARbernet on Dec 31, 2011 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
Which isn't a bad thing
but it would be unrealistic to expect him to be a major impact pitcher on a playoff-contending rotation. His stuff is somewhat akin to Saunders, but its not enough to move up high in this rotation.
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
by NASCARbernet on Dec 31, 2011 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
Run of the mill lefthanders
Don’t typically strike out 11 batters per nine innings though, even in the minors.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 31, 2011 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Its a big jump
and his fastball isn’t big enough to really be a first rate power pitcher. Sorry.
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
by NASCARbernet on Dec 31, 2011 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
That's about what Casey Fossum did
A lot of it has to do with the great curveball overmatching some AA players; something both Fossum and Skaggs had/have. MLB guys will waste tough curves from Skaggs and his K rate will drop fairly significantly. Although I still see a chance he progresses to a 1/2 guy if he fills his frame out and through that picks up a few MPH on the fastball.
fwiw
i think the fastball is actually the pitch in the major that gets the least number of swings and misses
what determines K rate will largely be how good the secondary is, though i tend to agree with you insofar as i’d rather have a pitcher has a plus changeup rather than a plus curveball, if he’s only allowed one plus secondary
Fossum actually good K rate in majors
7.0 for career, and 7.3 through his first 4 seasons. His problem in the majors was the gopher ball and too many walks,
Also, Fossum was 6’1", 160 pounds and only average about 88-89 MPH during his first several seasons.
Skaggs is 6’4", 195 pounds and average about 2 MPH faster than Fossum did.
The comparison was not off base….but I think enough of a spread in size and velocity as to draw a distinction
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
I don't believe he will be a Fossum (fingers crossed)
I’m a big Skaggs fan, I’m just saying I’ve seen this style of pitcher have issues before, and MiLB K rates don’t always translate well for guys like this. Young Rich Hill would be another example, but I think Skaggs has better command of a similar arsenal.
Can you give us a more detailed scouting report ?
When and where did you see him pitch ? How many times ?
What did he throw ?
What was his fastball velo and how much spread between FB and Changeup ?
How was his mound presence ? Demeanor ?
etc etc
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
by shoewizard on Dec 31, 2011 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Good questions all
I’ve seen him pitch all of three times, his max fastball was about 93, which was mine in high school
Typical fastball, slider, curve.
Doesn’t matter all that much. Major League hitters will hit him.
He’s a kid, he looked a little uncomfortable when pitching at Chase, but that’s to be expected. Bottom line, at best he’ll stand in for Joe Saunders when he’s adjusted to Big League hitters and the lifestyle..
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
by NASCARbernet on Dec 31, 2011 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
The K Rate is something you need to go back to though
For example, Saunders minor league career K rate was just 6.7
Skaggs is 10.6
I don’t think it’s possible that there stuff is that comparable with that big of a difference in K Rate. I would look for the reasons behind that spread, because it’s significant.
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
by shoewizard on Dec 31, 2011 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Except he doesn't have a typical fastball,curve for a lefty...
and velocity isn’t everything
you should know that Mr president of the Josh Collmenter fan club.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
by txzona on Dec 31, 2011 6:33 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think the original question should be restated
Who is the rookie lefty starter the D’Backs bring to spring training, Miley or Skaggs?
There’s not enough room. The D’Backs are going to dealing,maybe this year.
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
by NASCARbernet on Dec 31, 2011 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
Thats a good question too
I think Miley is not consistent enough. His control (walks) bob up and down, as does his velo. I think he has inconsistent mechanics, doesn’t repeat them well. When he gets a little tired, his mechanics get out of whack quickly.
Reliever.
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
Miley vs. Skaggs in AA
Rk Age W L W-L% ERA G GS IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
1 Wade Miley* 24 4 2 .667 4.78 14 14 75.1 1.354 8.8 0.7 3.3 5.5 1.64
10 Tyler Skaggs* 19 4 1 .800 2.50 10 10 57.2 1.040 7.0 0.6 2.3 11.4 4.87
Miley pitched better in Reno then he did in Mobile, but the above is apples to apples…same league, same competition, more or less.
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
lets try that again
W L ERA G IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BBTyler Skaggs* 4 1 2.50 10 57.2 1.040 7.0 0.6 2.3 11.4 4.87
Wade Miley* 4 2 4.78 14 75.1 1.354 8.8 0.7 3.3 5.5 1.64
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
i give up
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
hahaha
i never get tired of seeing you try to post tables
I'm like a one man entertainment industry.
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
but yeah
the biggest worry i have of Skaggs is that the AA isn’t a great sample size
i’ll be even more confident in him, if he can start off next year dominating in the minors
FB Velo isn't everything...but it's something
I just want to BB -Ref, sorted all the lefty starters that qualified for the ERA title in 2011. Then cross referenced with the avg fastball velo available at Fangraphs.
There is definitely a correlation that can be seen to fastball velo vs. pitching WAR.
(Lets not do the WAR debate….good enough proxy for overall effectiveness)
Player WAR Velo
CC Sabathia 6.9 93.8
Clayton Kershaw 6.9 93.4
Cliff Lee 6.8 91.5
Ricky Romero 5.9 92.1
Cole Hamels 5.4 91.7
Gio Gonzalez 5.0 92.5
C.J. Wilson 5.0 91.0
Jon Lester 4.8 92.8
Matt Harrison 4.0 92.8
David Price 3.7 94.8
Mark Buehrle 3.7 85.6
Randy Wolf 3.0 88.4
Madison Bumgarner 2.8 91.7
Derek Holland 2.7 94.2
Wandy Rodriguez 2.7 89.1
Paul Maholm 2.6 87.4
Joe Saunders 2.4 89.6
John Danks 2.1 91.6
Ted Lilly 2.0 87.4
Chris Capuano 1.7 87.9
Jason Vargas 1.6 87.4
Jeff Francis 1.4 84.7
John Lannan 0.9 89.8
Jaime Garcia 0.9 89.8
Once again, sorry for formatting. I suck at this. But ranked by WAR you can see the guys with the higher Velo, (above 91) tend to have the higher WAR, with just a couple of exceptions.
Here is the same list ranked by Velo……..the avg is 91.5
Player WAR Velo SO/9
David Price 3.7 94.8 8.8
Derek Holland 2.7 94.2 7.4
CC Sabathia 6.9 93.8 8.7
Clayton Kershaw 6.9 93.4 9.6
Jon Lester 4.8 92.8 8.6
Matt Harrison 4.0 92.8 6.1
Gio Gonzalez 5.0 92.5 8.8
Ricky Romero 5.9 92.1 7.1
Cole Hamels 5.4 91.7 8.1
Madison Bumgarner 2.8 91.7 8.4
John Danks 2.1 91.6 7.1
Cliff Lee 6.8 91.5 9.2
C.J. Wilson 5.0 91.0 8.3
John Lannan 0.9 89.8 5.2
Jaime Garcia 0.9 89.8 7.2
Joe Saunders 2.4 89.6 4.6
Wandy Rodriguez 2.7 89.1 7.8
Randy Wolf 3.0 88.4 5.7
Chris Capuano 1.7 87.9 8.1
Paul Maholm 2.6 87.4 5.4
Ted Lilly 2.0 87.4 7.4
Jason Vargas 1.6 87.4 5.9
Mark Buehrle 3.7 85.6 4.8
Jeff Francis 1.4 84.7 4.5
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
by shoewizard on Dec 31, 2011 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i think he'll be fine
he sits around 90-91 mph i believe (ranges between 88-93 mph right now) and commands it very well. and he’s still got a little room for projection, so it’s possible we could see him get another tick or two on that fastball.
and he’s got great secondaries. BA’s scouting report has the curveball has a true swing and miss pitch, and i remember listening to his games with Mobile and the announcer’s announced velo on his curveball showed diverse range. even though BA only consideres the changeup average, i’ve read that there are people in the org who think it’s quite a bit better than that (for whatever that’s worth)
and finally, you just don’t get as many strikeouts as Skaggs did in AA, and end up flaming out as a pitching prospect. worst case scenario imo (assuming no injury) Skaggs turns out to be a guy who hovers around a 4 ERA
by blue bulldog on Dec 31, 2011 8:11 PM EST up reply actions
I especially agree with your last paragraph
It’s the same reason I was so high on IPK even before we got him. You just don’t put up those kind of numbers in the minors without having the ability to get out major league hitters too.
It’s OK to be skeptical of guys dominating rookie ball and low A, but when a guy gets to A+ and AA and is dominating with great peripherals, performance matters…..especially when the pitcher is so young.
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
Bumgarner seems like an interesting comp
he was also a guy who was also dinged for not having enough stuff to back up his success, and like Skaggs, is a lefty who was really young compared to the rest of the league… Skaggs did strike out more batters though while also walking a little more, but if he can steadily produce the season Bumgarner had in 2011 once he settles in, I’d be more than ok with that, since I tend to be on the lower end of the projections for Skaggs. But then again, Bumgarner did also start throwing harder once he reached the big leagues, and while Skaggs still has proection left, it’s very hard to do that. Projection is there more for sustaining your stuff as you get accustomed to a bigger workload, not for having an uptick in velocity.
by CaptainCanuck on Jan 2, 2012 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
hm
i actually sorta think Bumgarner is different, at least in terms of reputation
some of the scouting folk liked Bumgarner a lot in the minors, though admittedly there were reports in 2009 of his stuff ticking down, whereas more stats-oriented guys (like me) really disliked Bumgarner
and like you said, Bumgarner started throwing harder once he reached the majors
i’d also be more than okay if he steadily produces the season Bumgarner had in 2011. that’s a top 15 pitcher in all of baseball by measure of either WAR or xFIP
even by ERA
it was still top 25 in all of baseball
Jerry Dipoto was "scouting folk"
And he liked Skaggs enough to make him a “must have” part of the Haren deal.
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
Well he's no Josh Collmenter...
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
by txzona on Dec 31, 2011 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He's got a ways to go
to wear those shoes.
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
by NASCARbernet on Dec 31, 2011 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
Joe Saunders? You cannot be serious.
Joe Saunders averaged 6 strikeouts per 9 in the minors. Skaggs averaged nearly 11 strikeouts per 9 in 3 seasons!
Saunders has a slightly above average fastball for a lefty and two or three other below average pitches, with no deception. In other words, he sucks.
Skaggs on the other hand is 20 years old and has been putting up dominating numbers like no other left handed pitcher in the minors(except the 22 year old Moore). He’s got an above average fastball for a lefty, his curveball should be rated NC 17 , and a decent chaneup.
A Saunders and Skaggs comp is just plain lazy if you ask me.
I do agree that it would be unrealistic for us to expect him to make a huge impact this year though
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Great!
You’re helping the D’Backs shop him around, in case you haven’t figured that out yet.
sententia Platonis semper in ore illius fuit, florere civitates si aut philosophi imperarent aut imperantes philosopharentur
by NASCARbernet on Dec 31, 2011 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
Bauer will have a better rookie season.
He’s got better stuff than 90% of the pitchers in the bigs. He also has great deception with that funky delivery, which will make him extremely hard to figure out. (ala Josh Collmenter 2011)
Nothing against Skaggs, but lefties usually take a longer time to find it . Bauer’s control could be an issue, but so could Skagg’s 90-92 mph fastball, especially if he’s not controlling his curveball.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
For 2012, I voted Skaggs
As Bulldog noted, Bauer still has some work to do to get ready for the majors. Because of his stuff, he’s likely to get too many innings early in his career before he’s really ready.
If they can be a little patient with him, he can hit his upside which everyone agrees is higher than Skaggs. But if they rush him before he’s got his command/control issues worked out, it may mess him up a bit.
I think Skaggs has a better chance to be effective in 2012 because of better command, but I think Bauer has the better chance to compete for a Cy Young award come 2014
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on AZ Snake Pit
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Pitcher Clayton Richard gets key pinch single in 13th after coming in 0 for 16
- Livan Hernandez welcomes ball boy to the bigs with shower of sunflower seeds (VIDEO)
- Man beaten by four others in Dodger Stadium parking lot
- Lance Berkman’s knee injury creates a lot of questions for Cards but also his career
- Next generation: Scott Van Slyke, son of Andy Van Slyke, hits first career homer
