Jason Kubel, Gerardo Parra, and plate appearance thoughts.

by shibum78 on Dec 20, 2011 3:22 PM EST

When I first saw read of the Kubel signing, my first thought was "WHY?". I'm sure many of my fellow D-backs fans also thought likewise. However, the more I thought about it, it makes sense on many levels.

If you've read the analysis from Fangraphs and many others, the discussion is mainly that most believe Kubel is not an upgrade over Parra when defense and baserunning are factored into the equation. Let's tackle that first by comparing Kubel and Parra.

In 2011, Kubel and Parra's line look like this:

Kubel: .273/.332/.434, .333wOBA

Parra: .292/.357/.427, .340wOBA

Now looking at this, it seems like both players are pretty comparable batting wise, but Parra had 16 intentional walks, mostly due to hitting 8th in the lineup. If you take even just 10 of those intentional walks away (lets be on the generous side and say he got on base the other 6 times through a hit or walk), his on base dips down to .337.

Since Parra will be entering his age 25 year, there is definitely opportunity for improvement, but as a prospect, this past season is about what most scouts viewed him being in his prime, a slap hitter that will about around .280-.300 with little power and average on-base skills.

With Kubel, his numbers the past 2 years dipped after his career year in 2009. I believe that's partly due to the move to Target Field, where I've read is a challenging place to hit for lefty pull hitters. Even though Kubel will be going into his age 30 year, with the shift to the NL as well as hitting in Chase Park, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that he will improve on his batting numbers from the prior 2 years. I've read that there were concerns about his decline in walk rate and increase in strike outs, but this has also coincided with his career high in taking pitches. This is only a guess, but I wonder if his ankle injury this past year had anything to do with his change in approach?

Anyway, I feel like I'm ranting, so let me get down to my point. Last year, the Dbacks wasted the following number of plate appearances on the following players:

Xavier Nady - 223

Melvin Mora - 135

Sean Burroughs - 115

Collin Cowgill - 110

Russell Branyan - 69

Geoff Blum - 55

Wily Mo Pena - 46

Cody Ransom - 37

Brandon Allen - 37

Josh Wilson - 10

Cole Gillespie - 7

Robby Hammock - 2

That's 846 plate appearances! Now, I Goldschmidt will get about 400 of these plate appearances, but that's still 400+ plate appearances that won't be wasted on the players listed above now with the Kubel signing. Even though Kubel is going to be tabbed as the every day starting left fielder, does anyone really think he'll end up with more than 500-550 plate appearances?

Now we have 9 games where the DH is covered and there will be 30+ starts where Trevor Cahill (extreme ground ball pitcher) will be pitching where Kubel won't be as much of a defensive liability. I can also see Parra starting almost every game Collmenter (as I'm sure you all know, extreme fly ball pitcher) pitches with a few games here and there with the other pitchers. I think there are enough at bats and Gibby is creative enough in the way he uses his players that I think both Kubel and Parra can get 500+ at bats this year.

I've read where some people have criticized the Dbacks for spending $7.5mil a year for the next 2 years on what was perceived as a non-necessity. However, as I've broken down above, I don't see this as an expensive "insurance" policy. The Dbacks had money to spend and instead of wasting 2 years committing to Saunders or 1 year on Kuroda, we really did improve upon an area of need, empty at bats. Also, with the upgrade of Cahill over Saunders, is it unrealistic to think that a combination of Miley/Bauer/Skaggs will outperform Saunders or Kuroda?

Ultimately, I do like the Kubel signing. I think he'll improve on the 400+ empty plate appearances the team had in 2011. Also, I believe not committing to Saunders and Kuroda (it sounded like he wanted a player option for 2nd year) will not prevent any of our young pitchers from contributing in 2012 and 2013, which adds even more value to the team as a whole.

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Comments

For 7.5 million

Kubel is going to start pretty much every game IMO. I still think Parra will get 300-400 AB, be it through PH, defensive replacement, injuries, and interleague.

"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung

by txzona on Dec 20, 2011 4:54 PM EST reply actions

For 7.5 million

Kubel SHOULD start pretty much every game, and will- IF he gives the team 7.5 million worth of ability. If Parra, or anyone else, produces better, they, not Kubel, will get the starts.

Riding the Gibbytrain since 2011!

by TylerO on Dec 20, 2011 5:03 PM EST up reply actions

Define "wasted"

Those numbers appear to be the total PAs for each player. How can you say, for example, that the DBacks “wasted” 5 of the 46 plate appearances by Wily Mo that resulted in some of the most memorable homeruns in team history?

With the exception of Hammock, all of those players made some contribution at the plate during 2011.

Riding the Gibbytrain since 2011!

by TylerO on Dec 20, 2011 5:20 PM EST reply actions

by wasted I mean...

have you looked at the combined sucktitude those players and their plate appearances above resulted in? a few home runs and game winning hits don’t justify all the other worthless plate appearances they had during the game in all the other games.

by shibum78 on Dec 20, 2011 11:18 PM EST up reply actions

The 2011

Comparision is faulted too. Kubel did not have a full season of AB’s.

Compare Kubel’s 2010 and Parra’s 2011. But i have a feeling with Chase Field Kubel will produce 2009 like #’s.

Now if he and Aaron Hill can both produce like 2009 we will be a hard team to outscore!

Freeze it..and make a popsicle

by Baja F1 on Dec 20, 2011 6:19 PM EST reply actions

Your logic doesn't make sense

You show very clearly why the Snakes could sorely use another competent bat.

You haven’t shown at all why spending the money on Kubel was a solution to that.

Kubel is one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball, every extra hit/HR he provides he’ll give back much of turning singles into doubles and fly outs into hits in left field. Plus he’s never played the field full time, ever, never played first base, ever, and has gimpy knees. It’s highly likely he’s going to miss parts of the seasons resting those knees, or god forbid, surgeries.

We could have picked up even better bats for cheaper. Johnny Damon is available, is a better fielder, baserunner and hitter than Kubel, and should cost at most $5m on a one year deal. Or we could find a right handed complement to Parra to platoon with him for almost nothing.

The problem is that Kubel is a good, not great hitter, and is best suited to DH, where his defense doesn’t give back a ton of runs.

One of the most important parts missing from all the analysis of Kubel is that he’s only played 3,000 innings in the outfield in about 7 years, roughy 400 innings a year or quarter time. If he had been a full time outfielder, his defensive costs would have been stunningly clear, and obvious. It was obvious to the Twins, which is why they did all they could to keep him out of the outfield.

It’s great the team found $7.5M to spend. It’s horrible that KT decided to set it on fire downgrading our left field position, and making our roster much less flexible.

by valuearb on Dec 20, 2011 7:18 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Your argument

convinces me that they are seriously thinking about sticking him at first base. And it’s like Billy Beane says in “Moneyball,” “there’s nothing to it…”

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Dec 20, 2011 10:37 PM EST up reply actions

And if Brad Pitt says it, it must be true

by SongBird on Dec 20, 2011 11:04 PM EST up reply actions

Oh

was that Brad Pitt? My bad. Sorry Billy Beane.

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Dec 20, 2011 11:15 PM EST up reply actions

Kubel

I know he’s not a good defensive player, but how much can he really hurt a team if he only plays 100 games in the outfield? and that’s probably not even full-time because he’ll probably be relieved in the 7th or 8th inning of several games for Parra or Bloomquist. I think the main reason Kubel’s offensive numbers don’t look that good is because of Target Field, which is considered a tough park for LH pull hitters. His road numbers in 2010 and 2011 were much better than his home numbers. now he’s moving to the Chase Field?

by shibum78 on Dec 20, 2011 11:30 PM EST up reply actions

$7.5M for a part time player

Really? If you are going to spend money like that you would think you could make more use of him than 100 games. If KT went into this knowing he was a part-time player, or that they’d have to gamble on Jason learning first base for the first time, just wow.

And all of Kubel’s numbers can be adjusted for context. He’s a career .350 wOBA guy, good, not great. Parra had a .340 wOBA. Obvously there is a huge different in runs saved on defense between the two, and Parra benefited from batting 8th, and it’s unclear whether Parra had a fluke year or he’s actually improving as a hitter (he’ll be 24 at the beginning of this season).

But if you need an insurance policy for Parra, Kubel seems like the absolute worst choice. Nice roster construction and resource allocation KT.

by valuearb on Dec 21, 2011 1:40 AM EST up reply actions

how about...

you suggest something, then? Johnny Damon? Really? If they weren’t going to be able to sign saunders for a reasonable amount and couldn’t close on Kuroda, I think this was a reasonable option. It’s not like it’s a 3 year or a $30mil albatross. After 2012, majority of the debt is paid off as well. If you look at last year, more than $7.5mil was wasted on the likes of Mora, Branyan, Nady, Galarraga, and Dukes (off the top of my head, this was close to $10mil wasted on these players). I think $7.5mil is not a stretch if you know you’re going to get 100 starts in LF, 9 starts at DH, and 40-50 more pinch hit plate appearances. Of course this can blow up in their faces if Kubel gets hurt, but you can say that about any players.

by shibum78 on Dec 21, 2011 10:41 AM EST up reply actions

Some albatrosses are bigger than others

Byrnes was a huge albatross given the contract length/payroll size.

Kubel will be a medium sized one, one year shorter, and about 25% less per year on a similar payroll.

Johnny Damon was not only cheaper, he had a huge advantage over Kubel. He can play left field. Kubel can’t. If you start Kubel in left he has negative value, his defense is so far below average that his slightly above average bat can’t make up the difference.

And Mora/Branyon/Nady demonstrate KT’s weakness for miscasting over the hill veterans, which is exactly what he did with Kubel. The difference is that he wrapped up $7.5M per year in a single roster spot and made it 2 years guaranteed and even tossed in a 3rd year buyout. He can’t simply waive Kubel if he fails this year to free up a roster spot for next year because he’ll still be paying Kubel.

Again, it’s nice KT has more to spend. The Snakes definitely could use a competent backup outfielder with a good bat, esp. one with flexibility to play first. But Kubel ain’t that guy, he can’t play left, he can’t play first, and that extra money we had just got wasted in spectacular fashion.

by valuearb on Dec 21, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions

I think everyone

Is jumping to conclusions about Kubel’s D. Ya the #‘s point that way, but he will also have a good coaching staff working with him and a great CF to cover him as well. He may surprise all of you. It’s LF, this isnt softball, your weakest OF goes to LF in baseball.

And i woudol rather see Johnny Gomes over Johnny Damon. And calling Kubel over the hill veteran? he is 29! Damon, now that’s over the hill.

Freeze it..and make a popsicle

by Baja F1 on Dec 21, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions

i dunno

i hope the coaching staff can work on him

i’ve said this before, and maybe it’s partial bias because of how often i get to see the elite range of our (previous) trio of outfielders in Parra, CY, Upton

but the couple of times i saw Kubel on MLB.tv i just thought…..uggghhhhhh………

by blue bulldog on Dec 21, 2011 1:25 PM EST up reply actions

3,000 innings already

It’s not like he hasn’t been worked with before. He’s been playing left and right field in the majors for 7 years, and has never been good. You can be skeptical about a UZR number based on only a single year of data, but we have the equivalent of about 2.5 full time outfield years with Kubel, and that’s enough to trust.

Now, 2.5 years isn’t enough to fix his skills to the decimal point, we can still anticipate it’s just roughly close to his capabilities. Perhaps he’s a victim of some bias in the numbers, and really isn’t terrible, just a poor outfielder, a -6 instead of a -17. But that’s a lot to hope for, as is the idea that DBack coaches can suddenly fix him.

And Jonny Gomes has been almost as bad in left as Kubel during his career, and a worse hitter, in particular his OBP has been terrible the last few years. I think the problem that KT and some fans have is they are hung up on the idea the team needs more home runs and that left field has to be reserved for a slugger type. The team doesn’t need more home runs, it simply needs to score more runs, without giving up more.

2011
Player OBP/SLG wOBA
Gomes .325/.389 .319
Kubel .332/.434 .333
Parra .357/.427 .340
Damon .326/.418 .328

Parra’s OBP and wOBA is likely overstated by hitting 8th and those extra intentional walks, and the others hit in tougher leagues/divisions so they’d likely get a boost in the NL west. But Parra’s defense is far superior to the others, enough so even if his offensive value is really 10% less than it appears, he’s a slam dunk to be the most valuable left fielder for the snakes out of this group.

And if you need an insurance policy for Parra, it’s Damon by a mile. He hit in the toughest division in the toughest league last year, so it’s a tossup whether he or Kubel will be the better offensive player this year. But their defense/base running/cost isn’t a tossup, Damon is far better in all those categories. You don’t have to lock yourself in for two years, and you don’t have to pay as much.

But if you don’t like Damon, there are other options. Scott Hairston has been a plus defender in left during his career, and while a lesser hitter to Kubel, the difference in defense more than makes up the difference. He signed for a $1m deal last year, so he’s way cheaper. But most importantly, he’s right handed.

Career
Hairston (v LHP) .274/.328/.410
Parra (v RHP) ..289/.337/.420
Kubel (v both) .271/.335/.459
Kubel (last 2 years) .259/.327/..430

There, you’ve upgraded your left field offense almost as much as if you signed Kubel, you only spent $1m, and your left field defense is still well above average, instead of awful.

Both Hairston and Damon have an important attribute that Kubel and Gomes don’t. Athelticism. It’s why Damon is still in the league at age 37, and lack of it is why guys like slugger types like Kubel and Gomes tend to suddenly crater in their early to mid 30s. The athletic guys have more speed and skills to draw on, are more adaptable. The sluggers tend to have marginal skills and speed that become unacceptable quickly when they decline.

But again. It doesn’t have to be Hairston or Damon. I don’t know who the absolute best fit is. I just know that Kubel is probably the absolute worst fit.

by valuearb on Dec 21, 2011 4:23 PM EST up reply actions

The team doesn’t need more home runs, it simply needs to score more runs, without giving up more.

Fair enough. And Kubel will certainly give away more than Parra. That’s clear. But what makes you think the insertion of Kubel resigns this particular club to cough up more runs than last year?

Even with some pitching regression, shouldnt we expect better overall, or defense independent, run prevention with the additions of Cahill, Saito, a full year of Shaw and Ziegler, and a new phenom or two, essentially replacing Saunders (who wasnt that bad) and Enright, Galarraga, Duke and Heilman (who were)?

Regardless of who mans left field. And presently, Parra remains on the roster. KT still owns the NL’s best outfield defense, whenever he wants it.

by Diamondhacks on Dec 22, 2011 12:59 AM EST up reply actions

In fairness to Kubel

His UZR of -41.8 in his career is enormous compared to his career TZ of -13.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 22, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions

Reed Johnson just re-signed with the Cubs for rumored $1M range

He’s been a plus defensive left fielder his entire career and is right handed.

Career vs. LHP

.302/.364/.454

KT misses better options left and right.

by valuearb on Dec 22, 2011 4:18 PM EST up reply actions

He also plays center.

"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan

by xmet on Dec 22, 2011 6:40 PM EST up reply actions

He has a career .295 wOBA for a reason

Much as he’d never face righties in an ideal world, it’s much harder to dutily enforce a strict platoon in reality. Not saying I’d rather have Kubel at 2/15 than Johnson at 1/1, but I’d rather have Kubel in general than Johnson, so it’s not like Johnson is a “better” option for AZ unless you factor in finances. Plus, the point was getting left-handed power. Don’t necessarily agree with that idea, but Johnson isn’t exactly an alternative to Kubel – they’re dramatically different players.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 22, 2011 7:51 PM EST up reply actions

I'm with you Shibum

Just read your post (good one) and this seems like a reasonable explanation for the trade. Kubel could also be maximized by playing LF while Parra plays CF against tough righties, sitting CY who gets crushed by righties throwing that low and away pitch.

by Majabe on Dec 21, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions

I think what alot of people are missing

Is that KT wants a POWER lefty to protect and split up Upton and Goldy, that is not Parra. You can argue Montero for that spot, but he may bat 6th now. Either way our 3-6 hitters can do massive damage. That 3 spot in upton comes to bat, your not gonna wanna walk him knwoing if you do you have Kubel or Miggy, then Goldy, then another big bat. I think this trade/lineup will really help Uptons and Goldy’s #’s

Freeze it..and make a popsicle

by Baja F1 on Dec 21, 2011 5:42 PM EST up reply actions

bingo

by Majabe on Dec 21, 2011 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

This is the key

Like it or not, we wanted a LHH to split Upton and Goldschmidt who could hit for more home run power than Montero. Again, you can argue whether or not we really got that or whether or not it was worth it to even try to get that, but that’s the crux of the move.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 22, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

He really needs to learn 1st to platoon with Goldschmidt against tough righties

This will allow Parra the opportunity to play some awesome LF and will keep Overbay’s <100 OPS+ from costing any wins.

by LiamNeeson on Dec 21, 2011 2:49 AM EST reply actions

Making the Overbay acquisition

the waste of a roster spot?

by xmet on Dec 21, 2011 7:01 AM EST up reply actions

I can see him being a very useful bench bat

Even if he doesn’t see a ton of time in the field. The Sean Burroughs of the 2012 D-backs, except better.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 22, 2011 3:02 PM EST up reply actions

Goldschmidt platoon

I can’t seem to find L/R splits for Goldie in the minors. Last year in the majors, he was actually BETTER against RHP (OPS .855 vs .657 vs LHP). I know – small sample size – but it seems like a pretty big reach to sign a guy who has never played first base to a $15M contract to platoon with a guy who (so far at least) has shown he is as good against RHP as LHP.

by Craig from Az on Dec 21, 2011 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

in the minors

Goldschmidt was significantly better against righties than lefties

in AA the platoon split was 400 points of OPS i believe (1.400 against righties, 1.000 against lefties)

by blue bulldog on Dec 21, 2011 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

Goldy

had a reverse platoon split?

Goldschmidt happens.

by DbacksSkins on Dec 21, 2011 4:29 PM EST up reply actions

my bad

sorry wasn’t thinking when i typed that

i meant the exact opposite. Goldy was significantly better against lefties than righties

by blue bulldog on Dec 22, 2011 1:53 AM EST up reply actions

As bb said

Massive MiLB platoon splits. Really makes me think there’s some 1B consideration here with Kubel.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 22, 2011 3:02 PM EST up reply actions

Overbay

I look at overbay like Mora/Nady/Branyan last year. If he’s a liability, I can see the Dbacks dropping him quickly, especially now that Kubel’s signed and it’ll have cost them $1mil, less than the 3 guys mentioned above.

by shibum78 on Dec 21, 2011 10:43 AM EST reply actions

I'm stuck on something with this Kubel trade

If this means we deal Parra why not deal him first? Now with the signing of Kubel everyone knows we have a logjam and we’ve shown our hand…which may ultimately mean getting less in return.

by Majabe on Dec 21, 2011 1:46 PM EST reply actions