As you may have seen most people on AZ Snake Pit are questioning why this signing took place....

As you may have seen most people on AZ Snake Pit are questioning why this signing took place. Obviously, this seems like a power upgrade, but was this a necessary? Let's take a deeper look at how they project next year.

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5 months ago David Fung 24 comments 0 recs |

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Interesting stuff

but isn’t Kubel 29? The graphic looks like it says 39, but I could be wrong. I do think that Chase will be more friendly to him than Target Field, and his return to 2009 (when he was still in the Metrodome) is a distinct possibility. But that’s just a reasonable guess, not anything backed by numbers.

Tomorrow is another day.

by soco on Dec 20, 2011 12:18 PM EST reply actions

Looks like a typo

Passed that on to the author.

"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"

by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions

That's

what I figured, but I also couldn’t read the text clear enough to be certain.

Tomorrow is another day.

by soco on Dec 20, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

And they also seem

To have swapped out Kubel’s and Parra’s OPS’s for 2011. Not sure if any others were mixed up…

"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"

by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 12:27 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks Jim, I switched the data on the OPS stats.

I double checked, and everything is fine now. Thanks for the heads up.

by David Fung on Dec 20, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions

Tried to update the image

With the new one, but for some bizarre reason, it’s shrunk it. Gonna keep fiddling…

"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"

by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 1:34 PM EST up reply actions

I fixed it.

I just relinked. I noticed sometimes it does that on Fanshots.

by David Fung on Dec 20, 2011 1:36 PM EST up reply actions

Er... I probably just broke it again then. :)

Stepping away from the Fanshot!

"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"

by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 1:38 PM EST up reply actions

My view

is simple, but not simplistic – if something works, i.e. winning a pennant, then there has to be a compelling reason to change things, and this signing is a radical change.

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Dec 20, 2011 12:22 PM EST reply actions

Maybe KT

was trying to order kugel for his Hanukkah dinner and got the lines mixed up.

Tomorrow is another day.

by soco on Dec 20, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Cool graph, as always. Thanks for posting it here.

Yes, this signing does seem a bit puzzling on the surface. Did they just wanted more power from the left field position? My main knock against Parra was his lack of a prototypical corner outfield bat, but I would rather keep Parra there than employ Kubel. Be careful what you wish for, I guess.

The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.

by Stupendous Man on Dec 20, 2011 12:25 PM EST via mobile reply actions

That's very much the case, I think

We’re otherwise a very right-handed line-up, especially if Drew isn’t ready (and I’ve got a growing feeling he won’t be). Montero, Parra and Overbay would be the only left-handers on the roster in that case.

"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"

by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions

the problem with this

is the old-school thought that you have to have enough left-handed batters in the lineup to balance your roster

i mean c’mon, Upton hit wRC+ of 138 last season against right-handers. so did Montero. with those two in the middle of the lineup hitting righties, i’m not convinced it was such a big problem that we needed to go and fix it by getting a “big left-handed” bat….

by blue bulldog on Dec 21, 2011 4:17 AM EST up reply actions

I'm not thrilled with the deal

but given that more pitchers are right handed than left, it follows that having left handed hitting is really helpful in the long run…

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Dec 21, 2011 10:01 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for posting this.

But I didn’t think the question was whether Kubel was better than Parra. Over the course of a full season, it seems likely that Kubel’s offense would outweigh Parra’s defense. The question, for me at least, is whether he will be $15 million better over the next two seasons, and I have a feeling the answer to that will be no.

Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.

by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 20, 2011 2:02 PM EST reply actions

You must have missed yesterday's comments

There were claims Kubel was a “scrub”, asking “Where is Jason Kubel an upgrade?” or stating flat-out that Parra was “better”.

"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"

by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I just went back and read that comment thread.

I generally consider the move to be a minor upgrade, one that doesn’t justify the pricetag, but an upgrade nonetheless. And whoever gets moved to the bench between Parra and Kubel will be a major upgrade over what they would have had.

Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.

by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 20, 2011 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

More or less with you

But stay tuned. More in about three minutes…

"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"

by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

If someone like Cowgill was our starting LF (If Parra let’s say never existed). The Kubel signing would be great. But we already have someone young and with promise. And Kubel doesn’t seem like the ‘Veteran’ that could possibly hone Parra’s skills like a Blanco/Montero type of thing. If we got Kubel for 7.5MM for BOTH year I would start to see alot more advantages. But I’m glad this graphic exists because Its starts to point out what KT was thinking. Still, thats not putting much faith in Parra, I would feel betrayed If I were him. And Parra is starting to become a huge crowd favorite (I like sitting in LF bleachers, and everyone there cheers HARD for him when he comes up and/or gets a hit)

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by Torpedosneak on Dec 20, 2011 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

No, it is the money

That is what is really baffling. Why are we paying that much for Kubel? Is he a $6+ million upgrade over Parra? And will his offensive numbers really make up for the resulting drop in defensive ability?

Thanks to David Fung for the graph, BTW.

by SongBird on Dec 20, 2011 4:25 PM EST up reply actions

it's not just money

first, i think that if you factor in defense, it’s entirely possible that Parra is worth more WAR than Kubel next year. if given 50/50 odds, and both Parra and Kubel had a chance to play as many games as they could on different teams, i’d be willing to bet that Parra puts in more WAR value. in fact, i think the only argument in favor of Kubel, is that with diminishing marginal returns on defense, you probably want to get a better bat and sacrifice some defense, and the real value might (not necessarily) be higher than the value that WAR gives an impression of

the biggest problem i have with the signing is that it’s a complete waste of assets. prior to the Kubel signing, i’d be fairly confident that in a survey of ‘Pitters, they’d say that Parra’s floor next year was 2 WAR (of course, injury concerns aside, since that’s a sunk risk that Kubel will have as well).

we’re now relegating a completely satisfactory 2 WAR LF’er to the bench for his cheapest remaining year. that’s just terrible management of your assets. if you want Kubel fine. then trade Parra or Young so that we can at least maximize the return on our assets. but now, you’re essentially going to have to either relegate your cheap outfielder to the bench, a guy who had 2 WAR and could have generated even more trade value with a similar year net year (who’s now going to see his value tank), or you’re going to be relegating your expensive outfielder to the bench, in which case you could have saved the money to try to make a move midseason, or sign a different player now, or simply invest the money and use it next year.

basically, unless one of Parra or Young gets traded (and the trade would have to be for commensurate value) then we just wasted our available assets

by blue bulldog on Dec 21, 2011 4:25 AM EST up reply actions

Thinking of service time alone...

This is a terrible move, like blue bulldog and others have said. Surely, $6MM isn’t much at all, but it’s way higher than what Parra is getting.

Thanks for commenting everyone. It was interesting to take a look at this.

by David Fung on Dec 21, 2011 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

Kubel vs. Parra, Home and Away

Kubel really struggled at Target Field in 2011. His road numbers are much more indicative of what we should expect: Home: .253/.314/.377, Away: .288/.345/.476.

OTOH, Parra’s numbers were inflated at Chase. Home: .305/.380/.453, Away: .281/.337/.405.

by fjm235 on Dec 20, 2011 3:15 PM EST reply actions