Diamondbacks Sign Jason Kubel
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 10:42 AM EST
in Diamondbacks News
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Well, if you thought the D-backs were done with position players... Think again. Numerous sources report the team signed free-agent outfielder Jason Kubel to a two-year deal for $15 million; Steve Gilbert reports there's an option, but no word on the amount involved in that at this point, or if it's player, team or mutual. [Edit: Per Nick Piecoro, 2014 option is a mutual one, also for $7.5 million, with a low buyout of less than one million].
Kubel turns thirty in May, and has spent his entire career with the Twins since making his debut for Minnesota in August 2004. In his career, he has a line of .271/.335/.459, which works out at a 112 OPS+, with last season's numbers being very close to those - .273/.332/.434, 111 OPS+. [And a h/t to blank_38, who I just realized Fanshot this while I was still giving it Z's!]
The signing came as a bit of a surprise, since it was though that if the Diamondbacks were to sign anyone else, it would like be a pitcher, with free-agent starter Hiroki Kuroda reported to be top of their list. No-one had linked Arizona's name to Kubel - the Reds appeared to be top of the list - and it seemed like the 2012 outfield was already set. But trust Kevin Towers to have something tricky up his sleeve, and Arizona fans will probably heave a sigh of relief at the realization that they won't be defending their NL West championship, with Willie Bloomquist as their fourth outfielder next year.
Kubel was primarily a DH for the Twins early in his career, with 157 games there in 2008-09, compared to 107 in the outfield. However, over the past couple of seasons, he has mostly played right, with 133 appearances in RF over 2010-11, and only 79 playing Evil Abomination of the American League (as I like to refer to the designated hitter). There's a reason for this: Dave Cameron puts it bluntly, saying Kubel's defense has "essentially proven to be so bad that he should probably have been moved to permanent DH by now." His numbers suggest that whatever offensive improvement Kubel represents, will be negated by his defensive sub-mediocrity.
Part of that is because Kubel obviously won't be playing in right-field for the Diamondbacks. That spot is clearly locked up for the Diamondbacks, and it seems to be the case that Kubel will be the starting left-fielder, replacing incumbent Gold Glove winner, Gerardo Parra. On that basis, it seems like an odd move by the team: "Congratulations, Gerardo on your award. Oh, by the way, you're moving back to the bench." It's especially odd as Parra had a breakout season offensively, and will still only be 24 next Opening Day. It's possible this signing is a prelude to a trade, as Arizona sells high on Parra.
Assuming that's not the case, it'll be interesting to see how this shakes down in 2012. There's no doubt Gerardo is a better fourth outfielder than Bloomquist, not least because he can simply slot in to any of the three positions. I'll also expect to see him replace Kubel just about every day after the seventh inning. However, both he and Kubel are left-handed bats, so there's no platoon advantage to be found there. One wonders if another possible scenario would be to move Parra to center and trade Chris Young? The latter is now 28, and had a lower OPS than Parra last season. Who knows the mind of Kevin Towers...
Kubel did miss seven weeks of the 2011 season with a sprained foot, which kept his power numbers down to their lowest level since 2006. He also struggled after coming back, batting only .229 the rest of the way, as the Twins floundered their way to the worst season in almost thirty years. But over an average 162-game season, he has been good for 22 homers and 92 RBI in his career, alongside the .271 average, which is the kind of season only Justin Upton has produced for Arizona. I'm thinking he'll likely hit fourth, between Upton and Paul Goldschmidt in our 2012 line-up.
Nick Piecoro Tweeted some comments from management:
GM Kevin Towers said he had an offer out to Hiroki Kuroda for “10 days to two weeks” but couldn’t get a yes. Got tired of waiting around. Towers made it sound like he doesn’t intend to trade Gerardo Parra. “That’s not to say you don’t always keep your ears open if something presents itself, but we think we’re better with Kubel… Parra is still very much a part of this club and was a big part last year. You can’t have enough good players.” Kubel signing also means Dbacks likely to go with one of their prospects to round out the rotation.
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Was he signed to be the D'Back's Designated Hitter?
’cause we need one, right?
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 10:51 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Wily Mo Pena 2.0!
The proudest (and possibly only) Diamondbacks fan in the state of Louisiana
by Bryan J. Boltik on Dec 19, 2011 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
Even with the logjam and possible hurt feelings
It’s STILL better than any moves the Dodgers or Giants have made this offseason.
That’s not saying much, buuuuuut
Founder of the 'Foundation for the Advancement of Clefoing' a 501C3
Also
If this had happened after LAST offseason, when Parra was still in the ’pit’s doghouse, I probably would have been bouncing off the freakin ceiling. What a difference a year makes
Founder of the 'Foundation for the Advancement of Clefoing' a 501C3
Parra is either backup
Or on the block to be traded. We can get the most from trading him now.
Kubel in 2009
28 Hr, .300 AVG, and 103 RBI, 56 BB’s
2010
21 HR, .249 AVG, 92 RBI, 56 BB’s
2011 ( Injury season)
12 HR, .273 AVG, 58 RBI, 32 BB’s
He has not had a OBP lower than .320, he will do good thing here i fully believe
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
As will I...
a lot. And very vociferously.
by azshadowwalker on Dec 19, 2011 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
$15M worth of insurance?
I don’t think so. This has to mean Parra to the bench or to be traded.
by Craig from Az on Dec 19, 2011 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
Someone tell me why Parra is now the fourth outfielder
Cause I don’t understand.
This is not going to be pretty. We're talking violence, strong language, adult content...
Don't try to understand
’cause it makes zero sense for a pitching/defense oriented team.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
Cause
Parra is consistantly missing the cut-off trying to showcase his arm, His baserunning is horrible, and if he bats anywhere besides 8th, he stinks.
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
You're pretty much
alone in your analysis.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 10:58 AM EST up reply actions 10 recs
Well
As we’ve learned with Justin Upton, young players NEVER develop or improve on their weak points. Not once has this ever happened
Founder of the 'Foundation for the Advancement of Clefoing' a 501C3
by Clefo on Dec 19, 2011 11:02 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
So no one think's Parra's base running is bad?
Do i need to go back and copy comments from last year?
When possibly trading someone, wouldnt you want to get the most out of him that you can? Well that time is right now for Parra if they are looking to trade.
Ya, the kid has potential, and a cannon, but he is not a smart player yet. And if KT wants to win now, we can wait for Parra to Develop like we could with a franchise player like Upton.
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
Only time will tell
But i think everyone here will be happy with this come September.
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
You must be either KT
or Kubel’s agent. I don’t like this deal as it presently stands at all.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
I dont remember
his baserunning as a bane of our existence. Thing is, Parra is young, cheap and apparently improving.
I got nothin'.
Yeah
That’s what gets me the most. I don’t dislike Jason Kubel as a player, I just wonder what the urgent pressing need to throw 7.5 million (rumored) at him was, especially with all three of our outfielders being more than capable.
Founder of the 'Foundation for the Advancement of Clefoing' a 501C3
ALL the baserunning was bad
I spent the second half of the season shouting, “Willie Bloomquist, DON’T DO THIS BAD THING.”
You know what I don’t get? He never wears a shirt; he never wears shoes: Why hasn’t he died from lack of service?
Okay, true enough.
Grant’s article on the side there says Parra was 15 out of 16 in stolen base attempts.
I got nothin'.
That sucks
that throws a monkey wrench in Baja’s argument.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
Stolen bases
And running into out’s are two different things. trying to stretch a doube to a triple, or single to double doesnt show up in SB’s and CS’s.
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
Yeah, curse him
for hitting doubles and trying to cause the defense problems.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
trying to stretch a double
to a triple is stupid unless you know you can. Your still gonna score on a single from 2nd. SO why run into an out? Especially with 1 out.
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
Okay, well, when you get a managerial job
and win a pennant, then come back and tell us all about it…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
Why can't we be friends..
Gibby preached aggressiveness and being hungry in ST last year – he knew there big issues on base path due to inexperience and young players – but he let it continue because we actually had bigger problems that were needing to be addressed (See: Gibson’s article on Dbacks.com).. The base running is at the fore-front of issues being addressed this coming Feb
Last time I checked, Giants fans still haven't found Goldie's home run ball...
I agree with this 100%
Just like when they addressed the K’s. Now it’s this. And of all the players who were responsible, Parra is the easiest to replace or bench. Your not gonna Bench CY, or Upton, Willie is an example, but with Drew coming back, that is not as much of an issue. This leaves Parra as the one left to deal with. KT didnt hesitate to trade away 30+ HR’s for a problem, so i think he feels the same about benching or trading away Parra for a problem.
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
IMhumbleO
Cy’s lack of offense in 2nd half was more detrimental than Parra’s baserunning
Last time I checked, Giants fans still haven't found Goldie's home run ball...
Tough arguement
There would be discussion about the team at all if this were the criteria.
You know what I don’t get? He never wears a shirt; he never wears shoes: Why hasn’t he died from lack of service?
Agreed
but like I said, I dont remember it just being him, or for that matter, it being him at all (I could be wrong). It was the whole team.
I got nothin'.
Just like it was only
Just Mark Renyolds striking out alot. But he was the first to go…
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
I agree with this
which isn’t to say that the D’Backs ARE going to trade CY. This has to be some sort of set up for another deal, say Kubel and Saunders to the AL for another pitcher?
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
Except
Saunders isn’t a Diamondback anymore.
Wear your own fur.
by Marc Fournier on Dec 19, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
CY and holmberg or corbin for david wright?
just a thought.
That's what makes sense to me too
I love CY but his numbers were not awesome last year. And I think he would be more valuable as a trading piece. Parra has demonstrated that he has a great arm and probably could handle center field.
Parra
goes from being an above average defender in LF to below average in CF. He can do it, but it mostly negates his defense.
Goldschmidt happens.
Makes his offense look better
His production looks a lot worse at a corner outfield spot
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 19, 2011 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
cheaper
and the drop in defense may not outweigh the positional adjustment
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah,
I just meant from a production POV.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 10:26 PM EST up reply actions
We really ddon't know that for a fact
do we?? He hasn’t played a whole lot of CF. Pretty small sample size if you ask me. I think he would do fine in CF.
I guess he could learn, but watching him play there
is not an easy thing to do.
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
If he plays there
I hope he can learn. He is very good in left. CF at Chase seems a bit difficult. We’ve been really lucky to have Finley and Young. I am sure Parra won’t be as good as CY there. However, maybe he can learn to play it.
This is my problem
Parra is a great corner OF (defensively speaking). He’s average as a CF. I just don’t think he’d be a good replacement for CY. I can only see them pushing Parra back to the bench, which doesn’t make me happy. Not only does the trade-off seem to be missing (Kubel’s offense vs. Parra’s defense), but Parra does it for a lot less money. Baffling.
by azshadowwalker on Dec 19, 2011 8:51 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with most of that.
But it would be foolish to think he can’t potentially get better.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 11:12 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
...wat
I should have a mfin theme song.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Dec 19, 2011 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
15 for 16 in stolen bases
FanGraphs has him last year as having the best baserunning speed on the team, though 0.5 runs below replacement at baserunning, but better than Goldschmidt, Burroughs, Blanco, Mora, KJ, and Miggy, among players w/ 100+ PAs.
He’s a little below average, but he’s hardly “horrible”.
And just for reference, in his career, FanGraphs has Kubel at 7.7 runs below replacement at baserunning, so he’s not really any upgrade.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree
and on a side note, I thank your team for beating the Giants yesterday and putting my Boys back in FIRST
by AzDbackfanInDc on Dec 19, 2011 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
whoops . . .
that ‘agreed’ was an affirmation of Nascar’s rebuttal.
by ShucksBoWalter on Dec 19, 2011 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
Ya know . . .
what would make more sense to me would be for Parra to move to center and Kubel to take left. I am over CY at the plate.
by ShucksBoWalter on Dec 19, 2011 11:04 AM EST reply actions
That would make a little more sense
But then the question comes up: “Why?”. We weren’t exactly hurting in the outfield going into the offseason.
Founder of the 'Foundation for the Advancement of Clefoing' a 501C3
by Clefo on Dec 19, 2011 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
IMO
Parra is most valuable (defensively) in left. I think he becomes an average defender in center whereas CY is a very good center fielder.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
by superwong18 on Dec 19, 2011 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
I was wondering that myself
if this was a prelude to moving CY.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
That would make some sense
By trading Young, moving Parra to CF, and Kubel playing LF we can downgrade two positions in one fell swoop!
Tankapalooza is starting early this year! WOOHOO!!!!!
Interesting move.
I’m not the biggest Parra fan around, but Kubel isn’t exactly a huge upgrade over him in left.
Parra would profile well as a fourth outfielder, but I bet they’ll try and trade him. He’ll attract a lot of interest.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 11:08 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I'll play
Trade him for what?
This is not going to be pretty. We're talking violence, strong language, adult content...
Knowing Towers, probably a few relievers.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 11:25 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
with mediocre arms
at the very end of their respective careers…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
OR
Kuroda…Could Parra have been a hinder in signing Kuroda given their history?
We get Kubel, trade Parra to bring in Kuroda.
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
That is stupid.
Do you really think the Dbacks Would give up a gold glove caliber LF with like 3 years of control left for 1 year of Hiroki Kuroda? If you do you’re sadly mistaken
"When Life gives you Lemons give the lemons BACK!"
I dunno
Personalities do have to enter it behind the scenes. I am sure there are jobs YOU might be offered (for great pay, work, etc) but where you’d have a colleague whom you think is a jerk. If that’s the stumbling block to saying Yes…. it depends on other negotiating points, I suppose.
Parra is less likely as trade bait
than CY. But CY plays centerfield unbelievably well at Chase, so I’m not at all sure what KT is thinking. I wonder if the speculation that Parra injured himself in winter ball is more accurate than we know?
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
Chris Young would be an attractive trade chip as well.
But since Parra is younger and cheaper, I would expect plenty of inquiries on his availability. But I completely forgot about his alleged winter ball injury. If that’s true, that throws a wrench in things, as well as potentially explains Kubel’s signing.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 11:24 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I dont remember hearing about this injury...
but I havent been that tuned in. Anyone have a link to it?
I got nothin'.
Its just speculation
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
SMH
I really do not understand this – trading Parra would make no sense to me. He owns left field at Chase, and he owns the fans out on the left field fence as well. Unless we are going to concede defeat on the “CY project” and trade him for a better piece to our puzzle, Kubel coming here is a huge “wth” & a very big risk. And fyi, Parra is above average in center. I’ve watched him out there in many practice sessions and cpl times in spring training and his range is same as Cy’s. Chris’s anticipation is the only thing he has over Parra.
by Dbacks4Eva on Dec 19, 2011 11:13 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
CY moves great in centerfield
but has always been reluctant to throw people out. I’m scratching my head over this signing, because the D’backs have built a strong outfield. Oh well, that’s why KT gets the big bucks.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
Welcome to the Pit!
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
Welcome to the pit
and I agree with almost everything you said
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
Selling low...
In 2010 Chris Young was an All-Star. For the first half of this season he was an All-Star, and then he injured his hand and it all went very south. I’m sick of the Diamondbacks’ front office waiting until a young player is worth very little and trading them.
Happened with Carlos Quentin, happened with Conor Jackson, happened with Mark Reynolds, and if it happens again with Chris Young I’m going to freakin’ lose it. Hell, it almost happened with Upton last year (heard rumblings about Drew as well).
Kubel makes almost zero sense without a trade, and as much as I hate to say it since I’m a big fan of Parra, it HAD BETTER BE him, since his value is actually pretty high up at the moment.
Kubel is a solid signing and I expect him to contribute closer to the 2009/2010 numbers of 20+ HR and nearly 100 RBI as a left-handed bat in the 6th hole. But this team needed a real 3B more than another outfielder. Oh well. Fingers crossed Young isn’t shipped out.
If I'm Gerardo...
and this move has no coming trade attached to it, and KT is asking me to be a 4th outfielder – then I’m wanting to be traded asap. Just notched a Gold Glove and batted .292 at age 24?! What more do you want from the kid
by Dbacks4Eva on Dec 19, 2011 11:24 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
FIFTY HOME RUNS
OR GIT OUT.
You know what I don’t get? He never wears a shirt; he never wears shoes: Why hasn’t he died from lack of service?
by luckycc on Dec 19, 2011 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
love it.
I should have a mfin theme song.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Dec 19, 2011 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
We're a demanding lot...
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
He definitely won't be happy about it.
But I don’t think he’s in any position to demand a trade.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 11:26 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
They give out
Gold Gloves in boxes of Lucky Charms nowadays. Not saying Parra’s wasn’t deserved buuut…
Founder of the 'Foundation for the Advancement of Clefoing' a 501C3
Well, he can demand all he wants
But he doesn’t have any leverage. Arizona still owns him through 2015.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
leverage or not
the signing makes little if any sense, as things are currently constituted.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
Let's ask teams
who have had baserunners GUNNED DOWN what they think…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
Let's also ask them
How nice it was to score easily when he didnt hit a cutoff man, which also let a runner get into scoring position at the same time.
This arguement can go both ways.
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
You were watching the wrong game, dude
Parra doesn’t need a cut off man.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
The F***
he doesnt. Obviously you have never played the game personally. No matter how good your arm is, you hit the cutoff man 95% of the time.
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
I've never played it personally
I always played it as a team player, and Parra is the best left fielder in the NL. Get over it.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I agree 'bout Parra being the best
If I had to guess, CY is getting traded but who knows
by AzDbackfanInDc on Dec 19, 2011 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
*Finger's Crossed*
Dear God make CY a bird..so he can fly..fly far away.. Dear God make CY a bird so he can fly..fly far far away.. lol
Last time I checked, Giants fans still haven't found Goldie's home run ball...
I wouldnt go that far
He plays great D, but best in the NL is a bit much, one Gold glove doesnt make that. And if he is. Then we can trade him for a hell of alot more than we have invested.
And then if you played as a team player, you should know to not be a showboat and showcase your arm over the better decisions of the team as a whole. Show the team your playing you have an arm, and they will think twice about things. Show it, dont flaunt it.
It’s the AL, but Alex Gordon was a great example of a great LF last year. Threw alot of people out, but did it smart and didnt let a bunch of runners advance also.
Im not saying that Parra is not good. He is, but he is more replacable than anyone else, and we can get alot fo him, or he is the best backup/ Defensive replacement in the NL. And he still has alot to learn. He did much better about his GIDP this year, but it was still a problem as well.
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
I don't think Parra is trying to show off
Just that overeagerness and some inexperience clouds his judgement (Justin Upton trying to throw runners out, anyone).
You know what I don’t get? He never wears a shirt; he never wears shoes: Why hasn’t he died from lack of service?
Parra can show off all he wants
he’s that little gadfly that winning teams need, that little bit of nasty that gets under opponent’s skin and causes them to make stupid mistakes. Championship caliber teams need at least one guy like him.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
I just want some kind of explanation
Why this is guy is legitimately better than Parra and better for the team.
You know what I don’t get? He never wears a shirt; he never wears shoes: Why hasn’t he died from lack of service?
Offense, and in particular power
Averaged 21 HR and 92 RBI per 162-games over his career. Parra has 16 HR and 136 RBI in almost 400 games total.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
So Towers in win now mode
Wants the offense.
You know what I don’t get? He never wears a shirt; he never wears shoes: Why hasn’t he died from lack of service?
Objectively
He has waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaX10^23y more power than Parra, and probably is better offensively all around. Serious downgrade defensively, and way more expensive.
Founder of the 'Foundation for the Advancement of Clefoing' a 501C3
This
I just don’t see it being a $15,000,000/2 upgrade.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed...
I understand he doesn’t have very much leverage… But you don’t ask a gold glover who’s improved both seasons, full of potential to ride the bench…He tried to fight the whole Dodgers team for crying out loud!! That cemented him as the starter in my mind. :).. Kubel has averaged more power over career but we are a young team with lots of chemistry..in outfield especially.. I suppose we’ll see.
Last time I checked, Giants fans still haven't found Goldie's home run ball...
I will say
that I am willing to see what else takes place (if anything), before I judge it too harshly.
I got nothin'.
I think that's wise
I can’t imagine this occurring in a vacuum.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
same.
This has been an excited off season so far!
by ShucksBoWalter on Dec 19, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
Ill say this again down here
What if Parra was a roadblock in us a\signing Kuroda? Parra and Kuroda have not the best History. So signing Kubel to replace Parra, then we trade away Parra for cash considerations, then Kuroda jumps on board.
Our Rotation is set, Our Bats get better, and Our OF D’ suffers a little, but CY is proving more and more he can cover ground, maybe shading a bit to LF to help Kubel.
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
Are you confusing him
With Kuo?
Twitter
Mr. Hall, you WILL beat it!
by dbacks25 on Dec 19, 2011 12:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
That's what I think he's referring to -
The lefty who threw at him then got owned for a rare Parra bomb… Kuroda is the RHP who as far as I know doesn’t have issues with us – other than he’s a Dodger
Last time I checked, Giants fans still haven't found Goldie's home run ball...
Ah, good times
that home run. This deal makes very little sense to me.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
Kuroda
has a problem with Rusty Ryal, who nailed him in the face with a line drive. Ryal is in the minors however, so I doubt that would be a problem
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
Welcome
to the party. Its a strange one.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
That it is
I’m going on the record right now of saying at first glance, I don’t like this move
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
Same here
In addition to his superb left field play, I like Parra’s competitive nature and feisty-ness.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
I kinda picked up on that ;)
but I agree I don’t think the boost in offense is enough to justify putting Parra on the bench
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
And you know me
I generally don’t like people who go against the grain or disagree with others or any of that stuff…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
That lefty
whom threw at Parra’s head won Cy Young, I believe…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
Possibly
But was it kuroda or Kuo who threw at parra’s head? I get that and Ryal’s comebacker on Kuo/Kuroda mixed up.
Either way, just a thought.
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
Ryal's comebacker
was Kuroda
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
"Parra and Kuroda have not the best History"
Examples being…….?
Founder of the 'Foundation for the Advancement of Clefoing' a 501C3
Don't think a Vet like Kuroda
would site Parra as a reason he wouldn’t come here…They’re professionals. Can’t all be best friends
Last time I checked, Giants fans still haven't found Goldie's home run ball...
Guess this is the end for JUp
The only reasonable explanation is he’s being DFA’d. It was a good run Justin.
Where have you gone, Greg Colbrunn?
by SenSurround on Dec 19, 2011 11:46 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
But seriously
It’s not a bad idea to pick up some lefty power, though the money is a bit high and we don’t really have anywhere to play him. Does he play 1B at all? Maybe dump Overbay and use him as a 4th OF / platoon 1B bat?
Where have you gone, Greg Colbrunn?
by SenSurround on Dec 19, 2011 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
I thought he was a first baseman...
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Well
Apparently he’s never played 1B, only LF/RF, so I dunno.
Then again, Brad Pitt told me anyone could play first base.
Where have you gone, Greg Colbrunn?
by SenSurround on Dec 19, 2011 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
Its easy
I even played there when I wasn’t pitching.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
Actually..
That’s almost correct – Like Nascar below me, I played 1st as well when I wasn’t pitching
Last time I checked, Giants fans still haven't found Goldie's home run ball...
Well
Not ANYONE. Deceased people would probably have a tough go of it
Founder of the 'Foundation for the Advancement of Clefoing' a 501C3
It depends
on whether they’re registered to vote or not…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
This is Phoenix
not Miami or Chicago
Founder of the 'Foundation for the Advancement of Clefoing' a 501C3
I was banished to the outfield when I played in high school.
I was even mediocre at first base. So I DH’d or pinch hit, mostly.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 12:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Well, I'm sure you had fun though
even in the outfield. I pitched, and did some first base. In Legion A, the coach wanted me to play right field when I wasn’t pitching, but even then I couldn’t see far enough to pick the ball up off the bat, so that didn’t work.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I had a lot of fun.
I had similar problems in the outfield. Even with my contact lenses in, I had difficulty tracking the ball. I couldn’t cover as much ground as some of my teammates, either. But I still got plenty of chances to hit, which I preferred anyway.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 12:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
303 games at DH
210 games at RF
188 games at LF
0 games at 1B
Dude’s a designated hitter, not a 1B.
Goldschmidt happens.
Which begs the question
why did a team in the NL sign him? Unless the rumors I’ve heard about the NL getting the DH thanks to realignment are true, we have zero need for him
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
That's still a rumor, but lots more inter-league starting 2013
With the Astros moving to the AL, at least one pair of teams will need to be playing inter-league games on any given day. When visiting AL squads, this will mean the NL team needs a DH.
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 19, 2011 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
J-Up had his moments
but in this age of belt-tightening, the expense of replacing broken water coolers was just too great.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Ahhh!
If something like that ever came across the wire I swear I would pay Db’s org. for any and all broken water cooler’s lol.
Last time I checked, Giants fans still haven't found Goldie's home run ball...
Sign and trade?
Hello all, longtime lurker first time poster. Had to chime in on this one. This does not seem to make any sense to me. Could towers be doing some kind of sign and trade? Picking up some lefty starter from a American league team that could use Kubel as a DH? For the most part, I like towers moves but this one doesn’t sit well…
It doesn't seem like it.
Seems like they like Kubel as an offensive upgrade over Parra (rightfully so) and are willing to sacrifice Parra’s defense for Kubel’s bat.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 12:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
The only plausible explanation
is that they wanted a left handed hitter with some power to compliment J-Up and Goldie.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
This could be
I agree with this alot. And he would give protection to both of them in the lineup.
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
And a welcome to the 'Pit to you as well!
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think you've ever welcomed me to the 'Pit...
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
Welcome to the 'Pit, NASCAR!
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
Why thanks kindly!
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
Well, that was 2 1/2 years and 17,500 comments ago...
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
I swear I don't remember that
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
Wow
lots of first time posters today! Welcome to you as well!
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
It is a great site
Jim and his minions do a very nice job with it
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
[Glares]
:)
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
No doubt
There will be more to this trade as we’ve only seen the first part of it
by AzDbackfanInDc on Dec 19, 2011 12:20 PM EST reply actions
Really?
I hear alot of nonsense and speculation about Kuroda being afraid of Parra, blah blah blah…
Who cares? If Lamar Odom could be welcomed by Dallas after their spats and as many other professional athletes, what does one incident even matter.
This is baseball and as much as some of you want to make this your adult version of WWF, give credit to these men, they are all professionals seeking to win it all for their club.
GP isn’t going anywhere.
by Augdogs on Dec 19, 2011 12:20 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I don’t put any stock in the Kuroda/Parra ‘beef’ nonsense, either. But its still completely reasonable to think that Parra might be traded. He would have more value to a number of other teams as a starter than he would to us as a fourth outfielder.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 12:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Everything that I am about to say
I’m pretty sure has been said already, but I’m going to say it again anyway. This move is, on it own, pretty insane. He is a significant downgrade defensively over Parra, and for a team that is so pitching oriented as the Dbacks are becoming, defense is very important. Also, I will admit that Parra wasn’t exactly a huge offensive powerhouse for the team last year, but he wasn’t bad, and he definately wasn’t hurting us that much offenisvely.
As much as I wanted the team to get a real fourth outfielder, I would rather have Bloomquist fill that position than Parra. For some reason, I just don’t see Kubel becoming the fourth outfielder with that 15 million he’s getting paid over a couple season. I really hope that KT knows what he’s doing on this one
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 12:23 PM EST reply actions
I think the reasoning
was that the D’Backs are right-handed power heavy, so they are vulnerable to left handed pitchers. I guess they figured they needed a left handed hitter with power more than an defensively intimidating left fielder. Time will tell, but I also worry that this deal will disrupt the excellent chemistry on this ballclub.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
"Right handed pitchers"
yikes.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
Good point
Chemestry didn’t even cross my mind. Maybe Parra will just have an awesomely amazing spring where he bats .900 with a 1.000 OBP and doesn’t make an error ever, so they will have to make him their starting left fielder
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
There is very little talk
about team chemistry, which is really unfortunate because it IS really important.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah but I think Gibby
believes in the chemistry part. So I am not too worried about it.
I got nothin'.
I don't see this deal as happening in a vacuum
something else has to be stirring.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
I am leaning that way
But it’s pure speculation as to what that might be, if it is at all.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
let us not forget
the awkward post game, three-way, shoulder bump at the conclusion of home victories. It looks like a thing of the past at this point.
by ShucksBoWalter on Dec 19, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Don't code red me
But could snakelet’s Pollock or Winfree be called upon if CY is moved as possible outfield insurance?
Last time I checked, Giants fans still haven't found Goldie's home run ball...
I'm not a prospect guy
but I would like that move better than putting Kubel in left and Parra on the bench
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
Pollock or Adam Eaton
Were mentioned by Kevin Towers after the Cahill trade as possible outfielders.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
They moved Cowgill out
he was a viable 4th outfielder otb, so who knows.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
Then I wouldn't feel as sick to my stomach...
I thought that might be in the works.
Last time I checked, Giants fans still haven't found Goldie's home run ball...
I guess
I’m okay with this. I’m more nervous about Kubel bouncing back than Parra having widdle feelings hurt.
Tomorrow is another day.
by soco on Dec 19, 2011 12:31 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I'm not concerned about
Parra having his feelings hurt, I’m concerned about this being a downgrade for us overall in left field
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Then
the good thing is that we’d have Parra to throw in if Kubel falters, assuming Kubel is even the starting left fielder.
Tomorrow is another day.
by soco on Dec 19, 2011 12:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think at $15 million/two years
It’s safe to assume Kubel will be starting every day.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yup
and batting clean up, and having rookies shine his shoes.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
But what abwout my widdle fweelings?
I thought Parra earned the job.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
No
he hasn’t earned the job yet. He needs a .900 batting average, 1.000 OBP, with no errors in spring training for that to happen
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
And another question
Who gets bumped off the 25-man roster with this addition? Blum seems about the only credible candidate. That could be more evidence to suggest a further trade is in the works.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
Blum would be the obvious answer
but KT’s moves can be rather unpredictable.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
Well, I'm out for the morning
I have a lunch meeting. I’ll talk to everyone later. Have fun.
Is it mid-February yet?
Hat-tip? YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
Interesting stuff coming from Piecoro as they gave Kuroda a “significant” offer and was on the table for 2 weeks.
link
I’m starting to like this if Kubel can see a stat boost from hitting behind Justin and from being at Chase. Target is unfortunately not a launching pad.
"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd
I'm just trailing in your wake today
:)
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
Bunch of stuff from Nick Piecoro's Twitter
GM Kevin Towers said he had an offer out to Hiroki Kuroda for “10 days to two weeks” but couldn’t get a yes. Got tired of waiting around. Towers made it sound like he doesn’t intend to trade Gerardo Parra. “That’s not to say you don’t always keep your ears open if something presents itself, but we think we’re better with Kubel… Parra is still very much a part of this club and was a big part last year. You can’t have enough good players.” Kubel signing also means Dbacks likely to go with one of their prospects to round out the rotation.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
Which I'm about to edit into the post
So please ignore this. :)
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
If something presents itself
Parra will definitely hear it before Towers does.
I'm sure I'll think of something clever to put here eventually...
by iheartdbacks on Dec 19, 2011 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
FEAR THE EARS!!
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
The sad thing is I really do like Kubel's bat
And I’m glad to have it on the team, I think he could do a ton of damage at Chase getting out of Minny. But Parra as a 4th OF is really a shame, especially here in AZ where the CF and RF play nearly every damn day when they’re not injuried.
Not to mention this makes the Overbay signing a little silly, if we could slot Kubel to be the LHH half of spelling Goldy as well. Think Pittsburgh wants him back maybe?
If no trade happens, Blum is gone….if a trade happens, well, maybe SF still wants Bloomquist? The Rockies are looking for anyone with a pulse to play 2B, maybe trade them Bloomy for a full writeup on their strategies finding Latin American talent?
Where have you gone, Greg Colbrunn?
lol
i like the way you think about trading him to the Rockies
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
This is a pretty bad move
Parra is the better player. Now he’s a bench bat? WTF!?
Someone has to be traded now, probably Bloomquist. Hey, at least Bloomquist is not our 4th outfielder….yet..
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
This gives me a strange feeling that CY is going away
not sure how I feel about that, but I think that is the way this makes the most sense.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
The Nats were looking for a CF
And with how much KT loves him some relief pitching, think we could go total embarrasment of riches in the pen and flip CY for Tyler Clippard?
Where have you gone, Greg Colbrunn?
Straight up?
that would be a pretty horrible trade for us.
Maybe CY for Ramos.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Not really suggesting anything
Just trying to look at a package KT might be interested in, and it’s more of a starting package than anything else. Even then, I would hate the move.
Where have you gone, Greg Colbrunn?
could you get CY for Drew Storen straight up?
we lost Indiana native Jarrod Parker. The least we can do is get a high ceiling one back in Storen.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
i was thinking this also
i’m greedy though, and i’d rather have elite talent
if we could figure out a way to somehow get Zimmerman by packaging CY with other prospects….*drools
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting...
So according to Towers, the Kubel signing means that one of the pitching prospects will be asked to fill a rotation spot? Might that mean Bauer or Skaggs? Or a less heralded arm like Brewer?
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 1:23 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Bauer, Brewer, Corbin, Enright, Miley, Skaggs...
In alphabetical order. Could be any of ‘em at this point, I’d say.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
would honestly like to see Miley or Brewer get a shot out of the gate
to give Bauer/Skaggs at least another month in the minors before showtime.
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
Same here.
As excited as I would be to see Bauer or Skaggs burst right out the gate, I don’t want to rush him. My choice would be Brewer.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 2:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It'd be interesting to see Brewer
I, too, would rather give Bauer/Skaggs more time in the minors.
Is it sad that I forgot that Enright was even an option? He was off to a decent start a couple of years ago…then came the meteoric fall.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 2:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Miley still probably has the inside track
But could easily play himself out of it in Spring. Bauer’s on deck, methinks. Enright may get another shot, but he’s gonna have to be otherworldly after he wet the bed on his second try last year, and that’s just not likely to happen. Wouldn’t mind seeing Brewer or Corbin, just to have an idea of what they might have to offer.
Where have you gone, Greg Colbrunn?
I'm not convinced that Corbin will ever wear a D-Backs uniform.
He’s likely to be blocked out of a rotation spot for the forseeable future, and I also have a feeling he’s liable to be traded before too long.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 2:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
unless injuries happen
but we need him to keep pitching well in the minors and getting good scouting reports, so that we can trade him
same with Brewer
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
So much for the best outfield defense in baseball....
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
That was one of my first thoughts when I first read about this signing.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 2:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Would never have been the best defense anyway
Outside of Parra and Young, the rest of the team is mediocre defensively at best.
'Cause he's lazy
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
TEH ERRORZ
Where have you gone, Greg Colbrunn?
No
He’s just not a great defensive RF. He tries hard, but he misplays too many balls.
He also
Has as much range as any RF in the game, meaning that even though he misplays some balls, he catches balls that other RFs don’t get to, which obviously has value. Overall, he’s an above-average RF who is still improving, particularly given that he was a shortstop in high school.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 20, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
The post was outfield defense, not overall
So two excellent defenders in Young and Parra, and one with excellent range and arm in Upton (and many people think overall an excellent defender)
by Craig from Az on Dec 19, 2011 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
Finally KT does something to improve the offense
I like this move, it’s the first thing KT has done this winter to improve the offensive side of the team. Every other move had been just bringing back last year’s final roster and hoping for the same level of production/amazing comebacks. Parra is a big upgrade compared to Bloomquist as the team’s fourth outfielder, but his production is not good enough for an everyday corner outfield spot. That said, if KT is going to try to get value for Parra, he will need to do a trade now.
while simultaneously
creating a defensive black hole in left field. I guess Towers doesn’t expect any right handed opposing hitters to get around on Bauer, IPK, Hudson or Collmenter…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
Smokin' out the lurkers today, huh?
I’m a fan of the move, but not at the expense of Parra…he’s young, he’s cheap, and he just won a Gold Glove. I don’t understand moving him. CY maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyybe.
I should have a mfin theme song.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Dec 19, 2011 1:36 PM EST reply actions
I really hope not.
CY is so smooth in CF.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
I like that
“Smokin’ out the lurkers” :)
by AzDbackfanInDc on Dec 19, 2011 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
CY would be worth a lot more
Parra would be a downgrade in center (both offense and defense) if CY was moved, but CY would be worth a lot more than Parra on the trade market. Deal for another starter? Not sure how much else AZ would need to include given how expensive Latos was for the Reds.
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 19, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
Reply hidden for the F-bomb
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
really?
Why would we trade either player
we have starters ready to pitch (Miley was pretty good last year) trading away offense, which we do not have in the minors seems idiotic to mean, but then again we did just sign Jason Kubel to be our starting LF over Gerardo Parra "The Diamondbacks where dumb signings happen"
That's better
:)
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
Because you just paid $15M for a LF
With the price tag, Kubel is going to play – that is already apparently decided. Question now becomes what to do with the remaining outfielders. J-Up isn’t going anywhere, so that leaves Parra and CY. CY probably has enough value to get something to help the major league roster with Parra filling center. As to why a starter, same reasoning as the Cahill trade: prospects are just that until they actually succeed in MLB.
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 19, 2011 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
it's for 2 years/15 million??
WHY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
we'll find out soon
Obviously something else is going to happen very soon
by AzDbackfanInDc on Dec 19, 2011 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Keith Law Tweet responding to signing
Nobody. RT @PaulieBallnuts: Who in their right mind thinks Kubel >Parra? #GMFail @keithlaw
Keith Law
is my favorite.
I should have a mfin theme song.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Dec 19, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not going to argue with that,
but Kubel does make us quite a bit better offensively.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Not really
Looking at last years numbers Parra OPS+ of 113 compared to Kubel’s 110…and the slugging percentage almost identical, with Parra winning gold glove I do not see any justification to saying Kubel makes this team better if he is the starting left fielder
I think if a power hitter switches from Target field to Chase
a pretty decent offensive jump is expected.
I don’t like or get the trade, but you can’t argue that this doesn’t make our lineup better.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
OPS+ adjusts to the players ballpark
that is the reason I used it…
Does OPS+ have a good handle on Target?
Given it’s only been open two years. Also OPS+ is a blunt tool – parks can be overall one way, but work differently for left-handers. There’s no doubt Parra’s OPS+ was boosted by the walks from batting eighth and a high BABIP.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
http://imaginesports.com/bball/reference/parks/popup
HR park factor for LHB: Target = 65, Chase = 119…
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
I'm just saying
I do not think Kubel’s offensive numbers are enough IMO to unseat Gerardo from left
by phx suns on Dec 19, 2011 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
me neither
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
by txzona on Dec 19, 2011 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I would think 2 years is decent
and Parra’s BABIP numbers last year were in line with his first two seasons so I don’t think it is all luck
Please explain..
Isn’t it just slugging and OBP?
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
That's OPS
OPS+ adjusts for league, park and run environment.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
I don't even...
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
My two cents
Seems like one of KT’s biggest points so far in his year+ here is depth. It’s a long season, someone will get injured, someone will play worse than expected, someone will play better than expected. Parra had a very good year last year and improved very much with the bat, but who knows if he keeps it up? What if Young or Upton get injured for a long period of time? Kubel is a proven bat that will have some use to this team, even if it’s just to spell an even-more improved Parra or be a power bat off the bench. IMO 15 million is a little steep though.
by UAwildcats on Dec 19, 2011 1:49 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I was thinking this also.
Last year it was a bunch of depth for crappy bench players. This year…?
I got nothin'.
I would agree with this philosophy
If we had $15M to throw around like pocket change. Seems like a LOT of money to pay for “depth.”
by Craig from Az on Dec 19, 2011 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Early projections for Kubel in 2012 at Chase
.285 30 HR…25 errors….
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Bill James projections
Kubel: .274/.343/.466, 20 HR.
Parra: .293/.352/.427, 9 HR
I’m assuming that’s before Kubel moves to Chase though.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
My brain hurts
What the heck does Towers have planned after this?
I just cant fathom Parra being moved to the bench, nor can i imagine trading him.
So is CY gone now?
"I could have been king, but in my own way I am king. Hail to the king baby." Ash from Army of Darkness
Parra could be used in a trade for another SP.
Maybe.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 2:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Chris Young for Gio Gonzalez?
Maybe we can steal from the A’s one more time. Might have to throw in a minor prospect. That would give us the best lineup in baseball IMO.
I think Oakland would want to build a trade around somebody younger and cheaper than Young, since they’re in no position to be taking on salary. They’re going to want Skaggs, at the very least.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 2:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
What about Parra then?
I hate to lose his’ defense, but I think the games and outs Gio gonzalez would be good for, far outweighs the greater defensive liability of Kubel
I could see Oakland having interest in Parra.
But they’d probably want Parra in addition to a couple of our top prospects (Skaggs, Matt Davidson, Pat Corbin, etc.) plus an arm like David Holmberg or J.R. Bradley. Gio Gonzalez would be nice to have, but I don’t know if it would be worth it.
Besides, I’m sure Kevin Towers discussed Gonzalez at length with the A’s before they decided on Cahill. So that ship might have already sailed, for all we know.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 3:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'd trade any of those names except Skaggs.
I agree KT probably did find out what they want for Gonzalez, but maybe it was for one of our outfielders which we could not do at the time. It’s nice to dream, but the salary of GG would probably be too rich for us. I don’t see Oakland contributing any money in a deal for him.
Platoon approach to outfeild
grrrr
check Jack Magruder’s article on Foxsportsnet
by ShucksBoWalter on Dec 19, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
chris young and holmberg or corbin for davis wright?
this move means to me that chris young is expendable….IMO.
david wright is so ridiculously expensive
if there’s no money coming back our way, then CY for David Wright straight up would be more than fair
CY is incredibly valuable as guy who plays premium defense at a premium position with league average offense
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
Y'all
just keep making great moves. Definitely rooting for the Diamondbacks to win the NL West again like last year. Love the state (visited it a few times; gorgeous), the uniforms, and the players (Justin Upton!).
Interesting to see where the Diamondbacks go from here.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 19, 2011 3:05 PM EST reply actions
Thanks for chiming in
Though I like the old uni’s better.
As for the move I like adding the offense (potential offense) but I dont like messing around with key players on this team after such a great year. I certainly hope Parra takes it well.
"I could have been king, but in my own way I am king. Hail to the king baby." Ash from Army of Darkness
Ya
that’s a good point. It is an interesting move in that regard. I wonder if KT has more up his sleeve.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 19, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
I hope not
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
oh my god
KEVIN TOWERS IS A MORON
by CaptainCanuck on Dec 19, 2011 3:14 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I blame Kuroda
Could KT not wait one more day to find out where Darvish is going (it’s gonna be the Yanks, btw)? Then Kuroda’s market becomes more clear, and he signs with a team quickly. Instead the FO looks like it’s pouting and throwing the money at a part of the team that isn’t begging for an upgrade.
Obviously
he had money burning a hole in his pocket. He would have put it to better use if he had bought my Bentley. Its much cheaper, and he’ll get more mileage.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
Not to mention
the move would have gone over better with the fans
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah,
and the other thing is, if you think the team needs a SP, you don’t say, “Well, he took too long without accepting our offer, so I guess we need a shitty outfielder/DH instead.”
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Rec'd
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
The Fox Sports AZ headline
sums this up:
“Kubel signing ends D-backs’ pursuit of pitcher”
So you went out looking, thinking you needed another starting pitcher, and your search ends with an overpaid average LF. Yeah, KT has a plan.
Goldschmidt happens.
That's
a kind of depressing headline. I didn’t really think we need another pitcher, so I’m not torn up about this signing because of that, but it’s still depressing that our search ended because we signed this guy
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
Indeed
Why the rush? Why was there a time limit on Kuroda anyway?
So
we could sign that great player, Kubel, obviously
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
Because
Kevin Towers is impatient.
Why else trade Kelly Johnson last year? Why else gobble up all the utility infielders as soon as free agency began last year, rather than wait to see who was left at the end?
Though Kuroda could have been waiting to see if Darvish signed, thinking he’d get more money that way.
Goldschmidt happens.
actually
i think this is true
KT probably is incredibly impatient as a GM :(
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
To be fair, Towers has made some good deals already
I think we aren’t seeing his whole plan yet.
—asteroid the trusting
I'm hoping for a Headley deal
Maybe Parra and Roberts plus a couple prospects – Padres are apparently asking for a lot for Headley, but two young MLB players and some prospects might do it.
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 19, 2011 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
They won't want Roberts.
Nobody’s gonna trust Roberts’ 2011 numbers, and they’re gonna want a return for the future, anyway.
Goldschmidt happens.
Parra could be that
The better question is whether Parra is worth giving up for Headley when Headley has one fewer year of control and is heading into his second year of arb as a Super Two while Parra makes minimum in 2012.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
With the Kubel deal already done, financial difference not as significant
I think a Headley trade would make sense for AZ. It would upgrade a position that needs it in the short term and, as long as Headley produced, he could be flipped again if Davidson is ready to move up to the major league squad.
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 19, 2011 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
So because we overpaid for one guy
We can throw caution to the wind and just ignore finances for a $70MM budget team?
That’s ridiculous.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
I love Parra,
But I would do a straight-up trade of those two in a heartbeat.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
I'm still
not 100% in love with the Cahill deal, either, but that seems to be just me.
Goldschmidt happens.
It isn't just you
I am a very hesitant “wait and see” on that one.
Hey Y'all
greetings from Twinkietown. As a Twins fan first, and a D-Backs fan second, I am sad to see Kubes leave the Twins, but glad he landed with a team that I like. That said, he will provide(assuming that his foot is healthy) a potent LH bat in the line up. Defensively he isn’t as bad as most claim…I guess that I would call him average, and providing that he is next to a capable CF, he will be a good player on the field, and a good clubhouse guy. He ius what I consider a solid citizen in the baseball world, an asset to any team, and just entering his prime.
"live EVERY week like it's shark week" Tracy Jordan(30 Rock)
by carlpavanosmoustache on Dec 19, 2011 3:25 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I'm hoping he's at least defensively average
but I’m certainly not counting on it.
Lets just hope he makes up for it by mashing 35 HR.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
in that ball park
He’s a lock for 30HR and 90RBI.
"live EVERY week like it's shark week" Tracy Jordan(30 Rock)
by carlpavanosmoustache on Dec 19, 2011 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
crosses fingers..
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
I hope you're right!
And hey, we’re willing to have you hang out here. ::pats the seat next to her::
Always a pleasure
To see another moustache.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Nationals sign Mike Cameron - take them off the board of trade partners
They really needed as CF and would probably have been interested in CY
Well
Mike Cameron is pretty much done,so that doesn’t rule them out.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
darn!
beat me to it……. lol
I think that the red ting on his cooking probe popped out last season.
"live EVERY week like it's shark week" Tracy Jordan(30 Rock)
by carlpavanosmoustache on Dec 19, 2011 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
Sure hope Parra
Is still the starter. Kubel for $7.5MM as a 4th outfielder is kind of crazy, but that money is worth it not to have Bloomquist play in the OF.
I would have preferred to use some of that cash to line up an extension for Miggie, but whatever… We should all be thankful we’re talking about Kubel and Parra right now whereas last year we were worried that Xavier Nady would get playing time in the OF.
Wear your own fur.
Good problem to have - 4 major league avg or better outfielders
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 19, 2011 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Right
It’s not the most economic move but I don’t think it hurts the team as much as people are predicting. I’d love for Parra to remain the starter, but his defense (and offense) is still there on the bench come the end of the game. Kubel brings an upgrade of power either off the bench or in the lineup at the back of the order.
Wear your own fur.
by Marc Fournier on Dec 19, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
Don't think Parra's bat will be worth a
damn off the bench.
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
Bloomquist as the fourth outfielder was just bad
so that’s a relief.
Kubel will be the starting LF barring any injury.
And I completely agree on the Miggy sentiment. Maybe they know Montero is going to ask for too much and they wanted to add another power LH bat for 2013.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
I don't know what "too much" is
But the D-backs shouldn’t be concerned about that. I don’t think he’s in Victor Martinez territory.
Wear your own fur.
by Marc Fournier on Dec 19, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
When catchers start asking for 4-5 years.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Sounds okay to me
4 years/$40MM for a 28-year-old catcher who’s at his prime.
Wear your own fur.
by Marc Fournier on Dec 19, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
can i say
“i said so” yet, that we aren’t going to be extending Miggy?
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
Has the team decided
That Kubel will start in LF, or is that just the assumption?
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
Not to mention
that 15 million we promised him. That’s quite a bit for a bench player
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough,
But assuming Parra doesn’t get traded, I’d imagine he’d still get a chance to compete for a starting spot, and he’ll get plenty of opportunities off the bench.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
As I said above
He needs to go into spring training and hit .900 with an OBP of 1.000 and make a million awesome plays and never make an error
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
Word
It’s just an assumption that he’ll start because of his paycheck. It’s certainly not a good PR move to have your second highest paid player as a 4th outfielder, but I wouldn’t rule it out as a possibility.
Wear your own fur.
by Marc Fournier on Dec 19, 2011 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
I would argue that
It’s an equally bad PR move to let a 24-year-old fan favorite be benched in favor of an overpriced free agent.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 5:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If his defense is poor
he’ll be riding the pine faster than a Mustang 302 reaches 60…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
It will probably be almost average,
not quite bad enough to overcome his 15M bat.
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
Which starting spot could
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 5:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
*My phone posted too early...
Assuming that Kubel is the opening day Left Fielder, which starting spot could Parra possibly compete for? Upton and Young have their spots locked down. They’re not going to put Parra in the infield.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 5:27 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Move Parra to 1st base?
But Kubel seems more like a classic first base type to me, except he’s not very tall.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
If anybody was going to move to first base from the outfield, it would have to be Kubel. But lucky for us, the Golden One occupies that spot on the field. Which puts us back at square one.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 5:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Platoooooooooon
Goldie has some holes in his swing, although I’m not sure they aren’t curable simply by more ABs….
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Goldy is also a RH
Kubel as LH makes sense as platoon.
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 19, 2011 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
paying a guy 7.5 million
to be in a platoon is a little absurd. I’d much rather give Goldie the chance to get full time at bats and have Kubel in left and have Parra sulking on the bench.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
right
waste $7.5 million and don’t try to recover any of that by putting him on the bench…
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
I'd rather
put the best team on the field. After all, that’s why they’re paying the money, right?
Goldschmidt happens.
which is why
kubel will be in left because he’s an upgrade from Parra. A small upgrade? Yes, pretty small if you ask me and I probably hate this signing as much as the next guy, but it would just be dumb to let 7.5 million go to waste
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
There are those
Like me, who think Kubel is a downgrade on Parra.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
and there are those
who think he is an upgrade, you know, the team that signed him. As inclined as I am to declare KT an idiot, I highly doubt he would make an uninformed decision not knowing what we already do and more.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
Nobody has a crystal ball
It’s less complex than you’re making it out to be. He wanted an offensive upgrade, and got one at the cost of defense and $7.5MM per year for two years. Kubel’s been mediocre the last two years, Arizona thinks it’s probably because of park factors. That’s a bold bet to make. There could be another move in place, but we’re still making a bold bet on Kubel regardless of other moves. His scouts like Kubel’s bat, and that’s fine, and Kubel could very well hit 25 HRs at Chase Field, but hitting is volatile. He’s betting that Kubel has a career year now that he’s out of Minnesota. At age-30.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:49 PM EST up reply actions
Again, "mediocre"?
107 OPS+ over the past two year. So what does that make Parra’s 97 OPS+ over the same timeframe?
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
Value =/= Offense
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
Even adding in Parra's defense
And there’s still absolutely no justification for calling him clearly better. Plus I’d say there’s a very non-zero chance Parra regresses to what he was the rest of his career before June this year.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 7:06 PM EST up reply actions
Let me spin it around
Is there justification for calling Kubel clearly better? Because why spend $7.5MM per year for two years if you don’t know if Kubel is clearly better? You already have Parra at minimum-salary, why make the expenditure if you’re unsure if it truly helps you?
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 7:08 PM EST up reply actions
Because
1) Parra’s 2011 was a fluke?
2) Kubel will be helped a lot by playing in Chase Field?
3) We’ve got someone knocking on the door offering us the world for Parra?
Not saying any or all of those are true, but they’d all be perfectly reasonable justifications.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
I just don't believe Parra's 2011 was a fluke
I’ve gone through the historical examples and I’m confident enough of that.
Still, you’re comparing a guy in Kubel whose average WAR last year was 1.2 with a guy in Parra whose average WAR last year was 2.4. You need to expect a freight train of regression to hit Parra and an enormous boost to Kubel’s stats in order for this to come close to justifying the $7.5MM expenditure per year.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 7:22 PM EST up reply actions
See elsewhere
Less than 100 games for Kubel. Bang, there’s half the gap gone, right there.
As also noted elsewhere, Parra’s last .784 OPS was in rookie-ball. I’m taking the under on him this year.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 7:23 PM EST up reply actions
He spent his entire career
Being young for his leagues in the minors. I hardly see a reason to ding him for “only” hitting .275/.341/.419 in 73 Double-A games as a 21-year-old.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 9:35 PM EST up reply actions
No I'm not
I’m acting like nobody would ever make a bad decision intentionally.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
and I just don't think
he simply said ok he’s probably better than parra so I’ll take him. KT must have done some research and thinking through the situation.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
the man rebuilt our bullpen
he deserves some
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
by superwong18 on Dec 19, 2011 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
On that front he does deserve credit.
On anything else? Not really.
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
Its not clear
that’s he’s the best left field option. The guess here is we see him at 1st base spelling Goldie. That makes Overbay vulnerable, I know.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
actually
I’m guessing he’s starting in left field because Rosenthal said he would and really he’s the only reliable source I’ve heard about position at this point.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
Yeah, but
I doubt Kirk Gibson called up Ken Rosenthal, and said, “Just to make this clear, I plan on starting Jason Kubel in LF.”
Goldschmidt happens.
Until you have a direct line
to Kirk Gibson, I think I’ll go with Rosenthal.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
by superwong18 on Dec 19, 2011 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That's what Overbay was supposed to be for
I guess Overbay could be a strict bench bat and Kubel could platoon with Goldschmidt part-time, but for $7.5MM for both 2012 and 2013, it still isn’t good value.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:00 PM EST up reply actions
Parra at SS?
what great arm! what great range!
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
What unfortunate left-handedness!
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:33 PM EST up reply actions
Its discrimination!
Next, you’ll tell me left handed catchers are a bad idea…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
Hey NASCAR, I've got something to tell you...
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:57 PM EST up reply actions
Isn't Drew
left-handed?
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
LHH, RHT
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
Oh
okay. Thanks for clearing that up for me
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
Same as
Miggy and KJ, for that matter.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
That's exactly right
I would have preferred to have seen a portion of that money go to extending AN ALLSTAR CATCHER. The mind boggles.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
time will tell
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
IMO
Beltran would have been a better fit.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Likely too expensive
Even with his injury history, he should get at least as much as the Rox gave Cuddyer (3/$31M)
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 19, 2011 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
i just can't see
Beltran landing a three-year deal
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
Somebody will give 2 and an option
Dodgers gave that much to Capucano and he is literally made of glass
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 19, 2011 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
Only in
KTworld.
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
To be fair,
He is, almost undoubtedly, an upgrade over whatever bench bat we would have had in his place.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 20, 2011 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
Projected lineup
Roberts
Hill
Montero
Upton
Kubel
Goldschmidt
Young
Drew
It’s a solid lineup if Drew can come back healthy. It might be the best lineup in the NL( pending what the Marlins do).
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Roberts and Hill
both worry me. Specifically regression related fear. Lots of questions in that lineup still (or potential ones). Although, so it goes for most every team.
I got nothin'.
I think
the Phillies or those Brewers (depending on Braun) might still have something to say about best lineup in the NL, but I no longer see our lineup as inferior to the big boys.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
Pence, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Victorino
it’s arguable, but if I had to pick a lineup I’d probably take theirs.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
eh
Pence and Victorino are coming off career years. Rollins and Utley are getting older. and Howard is just plain bad as a 1B.
i could see the Phillies offense being less than expected next year
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
you could also say Montero came off a career year and if you’re convinced that Howard’s now a 1.5 WAR kind of guy, rather than possibly a 3ish, than I don’t think you can say Goldy will be much better than him. Roberts is getting old too and old or not I’d take Utley over Hill. I love Drew, but i also love the consistent 3.5 WAR Rollins would bring to the table rather than hoping that this is the year Drew explodes onto the scene.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
if you call
the 2.0 WAR bursting onto the scene, then so be it. His best year was 2010 and I had much greater expectations for him last year before he broke his ankle. Chances are, some other team will get him in his best years, if and when that ever happens.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
True.
I meant offensively. Certainly in the 2nd half.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
fair enough
i wasn’t really trying to say that the Phillies won’t be better than the Dbacks, i just don’t think they’ll have the best offense in baseball
last year, by offensive ranks only, it went Cardinals, Brewers, Mets, Reds, Phillies, Dbacks
i guess Brewers and Cardinals are going to see drops due to Pujols and Fielder leaving, but really, the differences were so high between the teams that they may still be better than the Phillies. and i still see the Reds having a better offense than the Phillies next year.
as for Dbacks…..i think it really comes down to how much Goldy improves, and how much Kubel adds to the offense. i think there’s a legit shot that Dbacks have a better wRC+ than Philly next year.
i am of course, only referring to hitting component when i look at these lineups.
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
Brewers are likely to lose Fielder,
And the Cards have already lost Pujols, those were the two best offenses in the NL last year, and they’ve both been significantly diminished. There’s no other offense that I can think of that’s significantly better than the Dbacks’ (maybe the Reds’)
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
even with Fielder gone
I’d be hard pressed to find anyone on the D’Backs to match the Brewer’s Braun, Hart, Weeks, and Ramirez.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
well...
steriods solved a 1/4th of that for us.
"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd
For the first 50 games at least*
*pending appeal
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 19, 2011 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
insert
useless argument about how he could be innocent and we don’t know which substance he used.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
Same two (+Drew) worry me
I’m more worried about Roberts than Hill though. Hill has had a rough go for most of the last two years, but he has had sustained success at major league level in his career. Roberts was a marginal pick for a big league roster until last year – his 2011 looks like the least repeatable success going forward.
Quote from Grant Brisbee
There are bizarre moves, and there there are moves like this. If the Diamondbacks don’t make a substantial trade with one of their spare outfielders before spring, this will be the most confusing move of the offseason. It’s like someone in the front office sent a text that was ravaged by autocorrect, like “Sign Jason Karitiev for $750K” became “Jason Kubel for $7.5M.”
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Thought the move
over a bit more. Yeah, I still don’t get it…
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:23 PM EST reply actions
maybe KT
has something up his sleeve, or maybe this is just a huge epic fail.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
I hope
he turns around and trades Kubel to a team that actually needs a DH. You know, like, a team in the AL?
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
Can trade him to Houston next winter
He’d be a good fit in their park as they enter the AL
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 19, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Ed Wade isn't Houston's GM anymore.
The days of the Astros making dumb trades for overpriced veterans are over. Plus, they’re rebuilding.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 5:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
John Danks or Gavin Floyd, maybe?
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 5:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
or maybe
Kubel switches jersey’s with the pitcher every night and hits for him
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
This is my fault
For complaining about Willie being the 4th outfielder and not having enough depth. Sorry gang.
Seriously, Jim’s posting of the Target Field HR factor for Lefties is pretty interesting, and it helps us understand what the D Backs see here. They truly believe that Kubel will give them 25-30 HR playing half his games in Chase Field. He’d better, because his glove is a minus.
If they trade CY and put Parra in CF, they’d go from having the best OF defense in the league to one of the worst. (Contrary to others posted opinions, I believe Parra is not a good CF….he doesn’t see the ball well off the bat from straight on….gets very poor jumps in CF)
As of right now, I am negative on this move. But I will need to wait and see what other moves he makes along with this. It’s just hard to imagine any next move that is going to make me feel good about this one though.
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
IT'S ALL YOUR FAULT!!!
I BLAME YOU!!! Just kidding, but I agree with all this
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I actually
thought of your complaint when this first was announced. I was like, “Hey look, they did something about the Bloomquist/4th outfielder thing.”
I got nothin'.
MAYBE.
MAYBE.
They might yet trade CY or Parra and still have the same problem, though.
Goldschmidt happens.
I think
I would rather have Bloomquist as our fourth outfielder than sticking Parra on the bench
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
No
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
That would definitely make the
situation even worse though. So yeah, its still an issue.
I got nothin'.
No matter what happens,
it’s still an incomprehensible overpay, though.
It’s like Kevin Towers signed him right after 2009 (when he was 27 and had provided 2.7 WAR) rather than right after 2011.
Usually, when someone has a bad year, you turn around and offer them LESS.
Goldschmidt happens.
Darn you Shoewizard!
I just like saying it. ;-)
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
on a more serious note
would you be okay with trading Parra then?
i actually think he could fetch some decent prospects (i’m thinking middle infield variety) after this Gold Glove season
as Grant’s article mentioned above, this move just makes absolutely no sense, unless a trade deal was close to being finished
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
"That’s not to say you don’t always keep your ears open if something presents itself, but we think we’re better with Kubel… Parra is still very much a part of this club and was a big part last year. You can’t have enough good players."
Setting aside, for a moment, the definition of “good”, um, yes, you CAN have enough good players — 3 outfield positions and 25 roster spots say you can.
Goldschmidt happens.
If those 25 good players
Fit within budget though, then it’s not a bad thing to have as many as possible.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
I'm pretty sure a 25 man roster consisting of Micheal Cuddyers and Jason Kubels
would be hilarious
They’d go 2-161. The two wins would obviously come against the Astros.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
One would be the Astros
the other the Padres
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
oh snap.
I should have a mfin theme song.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Dec 19, 2011 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty sure
having 25 outfielders on your roster, even if they fit your budget, would not be a good thing.
Goldschmidt happens.
Upton, Young, Parra and Kubel.
That’s four guys. What we would have had was Upton, Young, Parra and Bloomquist, which would be noticeably worse. The crazy overpay is annoying, but I assume Gibby isn’t just going to hand Kubel the starting job.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
Upton, Young, Parra, Kubel, Bloomquist.
Bloomquist is still on the roster. And if you’re really all that worried, you’ve got Cole Gillespie in Reno, and I’m sure AJ Pollock will be up sometime next year, and maybe Eaton, Winfree, etc.
Average-ish outfielders was already a depth position in the system. Now it’s even moreso.
Goldschmidt happens.
A move
that would’ve made more sense would be to pick up a 3B, because then you can use RyRo as 4th OF.
Goldschmidt happens.
...as much as you can use Willie Bloomquist as one.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
Suddenly I'm in favor of the NL getting the DH....
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
by txzona on Dec 19, 2011 4:27 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
And
here we have the COTD
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, that got a rec from me
it would be like something happening that all of a sudden allows Bolshevism to make sense.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
you can say that again
“Bolshevism”
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Dude who should be most pissed about this
is Ian Kennedy. Unless he starts generating a ton more groundballs next year and stops being a flyball guy, he’s not gonna have as good a year.
Maybe that was KT’s plan all along. Hurt IPK’s value so you can sign him cheap to a long-term extension.
Hmm.
Goldschmidt happens.
I was thinking
that KT expects a LOT MORE STRIKEOUTS from our pitching staff. I mean, a lot more.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
Is there ever
a time that isn’t tin foil hat time?
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
stop it
you guys are depressing me
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Don't blame us
blame the guy who made this deal.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe me
and my trusty bottle of 1800 tequila should… pay KT a visit
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
It's possible
that KT was already visiting with a bottle of 1800 tequila when he negotiated this.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And a great big
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
Rec'd
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
Whatever happened to real men?
And general managers who signed bench bats for way too much money just because of their clubhouse presence?
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That seems to be the consensus,
And that was what I was referencing.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
Ahhh.
I figured you were referring to the other 33 guys on the roster who got extra money for their clubhouse presence.
Goldschmidt happens.
Reactions from the regulars seem to be
generally pretty negative on this one.
Is it mid-February yet?
Well
that’s one way to put it
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
And pretty uniformly negative
among journalists, too.
EVERYONE thinks this is a a bad move — but not JUST a bad move. Signing Russ Ortiz was a bad move, but at least you could see the thinking there.
This just doesn’t make any sense.
Goldschmidt happens.
The one headline
I saw on SB Nation summed it up nicely, “Jason Kubel signed by team that really doesn’t need him”
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
The ONLY upside I see to this
is as a left handed power hitter with some batting average capability, but to play regularly in the outfield? Not a chance. Yikes.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
It makes a lot of sense
If you read all the weeping and wailing here and elsewhere, about doing nothing to upgrade the offense. There’s no doubt that this move does exactly that. By how much, and whether it’s enough to offset the defensive downgrade, is up for debate, but if you “can’t see the thinking”, then you clearly aren’t making any effort.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
i agree
that the FO was obviously thinking about the offense
what ‘Skins is saying though, is that the move doesn’t make sense because we had a perfectly fine LF. it’s not a position for us to go and spend money on upgrading.
if you’re going to spend money and upgrade, upgrade at a different position.
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
It was a lot of money to spend
on a position that may not have really needed ‘upgrading.’
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
That is why it makes no sense. Obviously, an offensive upgrade is a good thing. But, at this position? For this much money?
I'm beginning to think
this is a platoon move, with Kubel alternating between left field and first base (Goldie is prone to swing and miss a lot). The D’Backs are right-handed batter heavy.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
Make Parra hit right-handed.
He’d be better than Bloomquist.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
This isn't football
You can’t just “upgrade the offense” in the NL. They have to play both ways.
by Craig from Az on Dec 19, 2011 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
OBP more important to scoring runs
than power, though, and Kubel’s probably a downgrade there in 2012, too.
Sure, you can “see the thinking”, in that Kevin Towers apparently thought, “I want a lefty OF with more power than Gerardo Parra, and I don’t care about the price.”
But I can’t see any coherent plan in place, given that 1. our outfield was already set, and 2. they withdrew money from their pitching budget to sign this dude. THAT’S where it’s hard to see the thinking.
Goldschmidt happens.
Cahill better be way better than what I think
Or whichever prospect is going to be Starter #5 better be darned good. Otherwise, I am going to start to get annoyed.
Starters #1-#5
are all gonna be worse than we expected now, if Kubel’s the starter in LF.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:14 AM EST up reply actions
Amen
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
I'm a big flaming Dback homer as you guys know
I’m an optimist
BUT WTF KEVIN TOWERS!
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
I don't get it
Good grief, I have now spent an hour in the middle of day thinking about this. And it is still nonsensical.
On the plus side, Bloomquist is no longer the 4th outfielder.
On the minus side the rest of this deal is insane. That much money? For a position we didn’t have a dire need to upgrade? We are making Parra a 4th outfielder??? Oh, farewell spectacular outfield defense! I shall miss you!
I don’t care what KT says. Are we trading Parra? CY? Good grief, is Parra going to play center??
WTF? I don’t get it.
Where it makes sense
is that he’s a left handed power hitter on a ball club that’s pretty over represented with right handed hitters. In this sense, and this sense alone, it makes sense. But otherwise, yiiiiish.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
But
he plays LF, where we already had a lefty.
You’re replacing Parra in the lineup with another lefty who has a bit more pop, and that’s all. Unless you play Parra in CF and Kubel in LF, in which case your OF defense is now TERRIBLE.
UNLESS— UNLESS Kubel plays RF for Upton.
Dear Lord, PLEASE don’t let Kubel play for Upton.
Goldschmidt happens.
I think describing Kubel as having "a bit more pop" than Parra
Is like saying Ian Kennedy is “a bit better pitcher” than Armando Galarraga.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Kubel had a .161 ISO last year.
Parra had a .135.
Even if you go by Kubel’s .188 career number, that’s even less than Juan Miranda’s .190 last year.
It’s more like saying Joe Saunders is better than Barry Enright.
Goldschmidt happens.
Yes, career numbers
Kubel ISO = .188
Parra ISO = .120
That’s a shit-ton more than a Saunders/Enright comparison.
Not sure where Miranda – a 1B with a total of less than 300 PAs in the majors – really has to do with it.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, it's imperial
10 shit-tons = 1 oce-lot
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
It's Brit-speak
like “fanny.”
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
Better
to use Parra’s 2011 than career numbers. He’s 24. Kubel, OTOH, while injured last year, probably won’t ever replicate his .239 in 2009 or, I’ll wager, his .199 in 2008.
Just used Miranda’s 2011 as a point of reference. If Kubel’s career .188 ISO were a 2011 Diamondback, it only would’ve been 6th on the team, behind Miranda at .190 and ahead of Miggy at .187.
Kubel certainly has had more power in his career, but it’s not like he’s Ryan Howard.
Goldschmidt happens.
And that's also entirely excluding park factors
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
I've
spent five hours (almost the entire time I’ve been awake) thinking about this and I don’t get it
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Gibby never looks at salary
when filling out the line-up card. Kubel will sit and Parra will play if that is how they are performing. It’s nice to have that option instead of Parra/Boomquist, right?
Riding the Gibbytrain since 2011!
Well..... true
But…… then we just wasted $15 million on a bench player.
Maybe
that will teach KT not to spend 15 million on someone who’s just going to be a bench player
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
Not entirely a "bench player"
since he is an experienced DH for the inter-league stretch. Our DHs last year were entertaining, but not overly productive…
Riding the Gibbytrain since 2011!
If the DH can play (at some acceptable level) a defensive position, then having a true DH for those 9 games might make the difference in a tight pennant race.
Riding the Gibbytrain since 2011!
Does having a decent DH for 9 games
outweigh having worse defense the other 153?
Goldschmidt happens.
No bench player
is going to play 162 games, so whatever defensive problems he has (lack of range has been suggested) doesn’t automatically affect 153 games.
I fully agree that $7.5 million is too much for a standard bench player, but the gap is less troubling if you include his DH capabilities.
Riding the Gibbytrain since 2011!
It'll affect
162 games if we end up trading Parra, though.
And I’m just not particularly concerned about 36 PAs or so as a DH.
Goldschmidt happens.
Interleague every week starting 2013
AZ will need a DH a lot more after the Astros move over and there are two 15 team leagues
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 19, 2011 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
Is that many?
I don’t get this interleague play thing, but apparently a lot of fans like it. He’s tailor made for DH.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
With two 15 team leagues
At least one pair (NL/AL) will need to be playing each other at all times. That will mean a lot more ABs for an NL team’s inter-league DH
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 19, 2011 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
If this move is a prelude
To trading Parra, then I hate it, plain and simple. But if this is just a way of getting a very good bench bat (which it very well might be), then I’m okay with it, even with the crazy overpay.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 4:42 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I'm okay with it
kind of if he’s going to be on the bench, but if he replaces Parra in left, not a chance
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
I think
they could have obtained better value for the bucks, i.e. a fielder who could actually catch fly balls.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
There's nothing wrong
With wanting to upgrade the offense, but I agree, they could have done that for much cheaper.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
Its a lot of money
for a guy who will by mid season be used nearly exclusively for late inning pinch hitting duties. There has to be something else going on.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
Like
trading him to a team that actually needs a DH
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
He's signed for 2 years at $7.5 million per season
that narrows down possible trade deals…a lot.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
You
really know how to ruin a guy’s day dreams don’t you?
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe I should have been a lawyer
my dad always said, “If you don’t mind ruining someone’s day, be a lawyer.”
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
There's a difference
dentists can prescribe, if they’re so inclined…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
Orthodontists, then.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
i actually disagree
if this move is a prelude to trading Parra then i’d be okay with it
at least that means we’re trying to maximize our assets, instead of letting them go to waste
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
I think Parra still has some upside
but If you sold now. It would be at an all time high for him.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
I'm
With ZM on this.
Wear your own fur.
by Marc Fournier on Dec 19, 2011 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
Wait, I just had a thought.
Someone DID tell Kevin Towers that the Astros—not the Diamondbacks—were the ones moving into the AL, riiiiight?
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 4:47 PM EST reply actions
"Oopsie"
says the little guy who sends out those emails…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
Don't look at me,
I can barely figure out how Twitter even works…
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
Well
I’m going to get off, and try and see how this is a good move. Talk to you all later
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 4:51 PM EST reply actions
I, too, need to leave
An hour of total confusion is quite enough for me.
Well, Jim seems down with it
anyway.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
Are we even going to need a poll on this one?
This signing has been canned more than Alvin and the Chipmunks.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
I'm kinda "meh" on it
I don’t see the team as worse than it was yesterday. It does have a significantly higher payroll.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
But it's still
Not like we went out and traded for Vernon Wells’ contract. I’m not a payroll expert, but I doubt $7.5 million a year is going to break the bank. I’d wager the team is safely within its means.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
True,
That Montero extension just got a lot more difficult…
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
That's the biggie
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
I think they can as well,
But it’s less likely than it was 12 hours ago.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
+1
also, if we want to upgrade midseason by taking on payroll
this will probably limit our options
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
True,
but everyone has flat-out said that this means we can’t sign Kuroda. That’s a direct impact from this.
Goldschmidt happens.
If I recall correctly
at least Kubel is getting paid less that Eric Byrnes did.
Riding the Gibbytrain since 2011!
Warren Buffet
was getting paid less than Eric Byrnes did.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
Hey
at least Eric Byrnes pays his secretaries.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Ouch.
I like it.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
The Berkman signing was panned last year
I don’t think it hurt the Cards to play him over Jay
Spoil sport
you really gotta get into the spirit of this, you know.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
Excellent point
although comparing Kubel to Berkman (or Parra to the problem-child Jay) is a stretch.
Riding the Gibbytrain since 2011!
Indeed,
and Berkman’s 2.1 WAR in 2010 (lowest full season of his career) would still be the 2nd best season of Kuble’s career.
Goldschmidt happens.
i loved
the Berkman signing last year
in fact, i distinctly remember advocating us signing Berkman
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
You were bananas about signing Berkman.
And for good reason.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
don't. even. go. there...
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
Okay, well, I think it's safe to say
that Diamondbacks signed a Designated Hitter today…
Is it mid-February yet?
They might have to try him and 1B.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
That actually makes more sense
especially with a young first baseman prone to strike out. Good spot.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
But then
Why the hell would you sign Overbay?
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
Just in case Kubel
wasn’t going to work out at first? I don’t know. My mind boggled earlier this morning.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
Trying to teach the dude a new position
on the fly while the team is in “win now” mode?
Goldschmidt happens.
BRAD PITT DID IT
Where have you gone, Greg Colbrunn?
hahahahahahaha
dude
i feel like you’ve on fire in this thread today
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
It's true.
I was there.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
I'm trying to look at the positives here
Is great defense in LF that vital? Other than 1B isn’t it the least valuable position?
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Good point
and pitching is really overrated too.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
Well we were considering Brandon Allen in LF
last spring training.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Kubel will probably be our third best hitter.
Allen….not so much, but that was last year.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Good move
We got incredibly lucky to not get bitten by the injury bug much last year besides Drew obviously. This signing covers us in many ways, first if Upton or CY, knock on wood, go down, we still have a quality offensive OF and won’t use Bloomquist in left. Also, if Goldy can’t perform the way he did his rookie year, we have a better insurance policy than Overybay. I think Parra starts a ton of games regardless, but this signing will not hurt us outside of payroll. Finally, if we need to make a trade now we have depth, and do not necessarily assume it is Parra being traded, could be CY depending on what the org is looking for. Whether this is worth 7.5MM per year is to be seen.
What did
Lyle do to you to deserve THAT nickname?
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
all in favor of making overbay's nickname overybay say aye
AYE
"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd
LOL
AYE. DONE. Game overybay. see what I did there?
by ShucksBoWalter on Dec 19, 2011 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
I liked it better
When I assumed you just hated Lyle Overbay.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
Easier to say
than to play.
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
Well, one thing is for sure
we won’t be giving the new guy a nickname like “cheap champagne,” not with that salary…
Is it mid-February yet?
Some general thoughts:
1) Jason Kubel is not as good of an outfielder as Gerardo Parra. Just want to get that out right up top. Considering defensive value, potential, hitting ability, everything, I’ll take the about-to-play-his-age-25-season Gerardo Parra over the about-to-play-his-age-30-season Jason Kubel.
2) As for the so-called offensive upgrade… Kubel’s 2011 wRC+: 110; Parra’s 2011 wRC+: 109. Unless you think Parra’s numbers would fall about 15% if he was moved out of the eight-spot (you can think this, but I’d disagree), I’m not seeing how this makes sense when you consider age, performance trends, cost, defense, et al.
3) Left-handed home run power plays well in Chase, but so does left-handed gap power, and we’ve seen plenty of left-handed HR guys underwhelm or post relatively average seasons in Chase (LaRoche comes to mind). Not seeing how Kubel is supposed to have some big breakout for us, especially in the beginning of his decline phase.
4) We’ve been preaching that we’re supposed to build with pitching, and it’s confusing to see us disassociate pitching and defense so willingly. It’s like saying you want to make the perfect pie and spend hours to come up with the best possible filling recipe known to man, yet spend two dollars on a store-bought crust. Parra’s effect on Kennedy, Hudson, Collmenter, and Saunders last year shouldn’t be overlooked.
5) If there is a move in the works for us to move an outfielder, why? Are we trying to move Parra or Young for a starting pitcher? If so, is that starting pitcher better than Hiroki Kuroda? Because if not, you’ve potentially downgraded two or three positions with this move (LF, CF, SP5) depending on whether or not Kuroda was going to sign. If we can get a better SP than Kuroda, he has to be significantly better and/or cheaper – after all, you have to make up the value of moving a COF to CF if we deal CY or the value of the incredible increase in salary costs if we move Parra, plus the risk of having Kubel on a two-year contract versus just keeping Parra year-to-year with minimum salary (CY is arguably less risky than Kubel as well given CY’s impeccable health record). If we aren’t trading for a SP, then what are we trading for? A third baseman? If we signed the overrated Kubel so that we can flip Chris Young for the even-more-overrated David Wright (to move Roberts to the bench?), I give up. If we flip CY for prospects, then we did we move Parker for Cahill to help us win now?
6) If there is a move in place, is it possible that instead of shifting Parra to center, we move Upton to center? I trust Upton’s range more than Parra’s, and Parra would play excellently in right field with his arm. I’d rather have Upton in center to cover some of Kubel’s lacking ground than Parra in center, that’s for sure.
7) For the argument that Parra doesn’t hit the cutoff man, get serious. Parra doesn’t need to hit the cutoff man, despite what your high school or college baseball coach told you. If you could throw a no-hop line drive to home plate, your coach would have told you not to throw to the cutoff man either. But when you can nail Emilio Bonifacio at home on a sac fly, the rules don’t apply to you. Don’t apply what your coaches told you to do with your average arm strength to what coaches should tell Parra to do with his truly elite arm strength. It’s just not an apples-to-apples comparison.
8) If this were a one-year deal for $5MM – or even $7.5MM for all I care, it’s not my money – for a right-handed bat, I’d be totally on board. If we weren’t confident we’d get Kuroda, might as well upgrade our bench with the payroll flexibility we have, yet not tie up anything for the long-term so that we the ability to dive back into the market next year looking for upgrades where we need them. That makes perfect sense. Two years for Kubel? Gross.
9) If we hear next year that we don’t have the budget flexibility to re-sign Montero, it will be inexcusable. You don’t handcuff yourself when it comes to re-signing a star catcher in order to sign a fringe-regular outfielder/DH on an NL team.
10) Even if there isn’t a trade for an outfielder now, there will be next off-season. Parra will hit arbitration and make somewhere in the $3-4MM range, Young with make $8.7MM, and Upton will make $9.6MM. You don’t pay four outfielders a combined $29-30MM for one year when your total payroll is somewhere around $70MM.
11) 2013 was already going to be an expensive year. This basically makes it a certainty that either a major piece of the D-backs roster will get traded as he gets expensive, or that Willie Bloomquist and John McDonald will combine to share the everyday shortstop job in 2013 with Henry Blanco and some crappy free agent pickup catching everyday. For a team that hopes to contend, that’s a disaster.
12) Bottom line: the financial handcuffing of the team that the second year of this contract is tough to swallow. The best-case scenario for this contract is that we’re able to move Kubel next off-season without us eating salary. When you sign a two-year contract and that immediately becomes the case, it’s a questionable two-year contract.
13) Last, but not least, is a little food for thought. The market for Carlos Beltran is expected to be somewhere in the two-or-three-year, $12-13MM-per-year range. If Beltran ultimately signs something like 2/25, doesn’t this contract suddenly look all the more atrocious? Much as Kubel is confusing because he’s not a clear upgrade, Beltran is a clear upgrade. For $5MM more per year, I’d be totally down to relegate Parra to a fourth outfielder job if it means we have an outfield of Beltran/Young/Upton, with Parra available in case Beltran needs to miss some time due to injuries. A Beltran 2/25 almost makes too much sense! With how flimsy the Beltran market has been, giving Kubel 2/15 when 2/25 or even 3/36 might be enough to snag Beltran, I can’t fathom how Kubel is the better value.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 5:56 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
I guess park factors for moving out of Minnesota could help Kubel
But it’s not like he was all that and a bag of chips in their old ballpark, either. He had one good year, and he still probably about as good as Parra was last year in that good year.
I just don’t get how a year as atrocious as Kubel’s 2011 translates into 2/15. His market should have been way way way down. Turns out it was way way way up.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
Over 3 1/2 full years in the Metrodome
.277/.339/.476 = .814 OPS, 115 OPS+
And an 111+ OPS in 2011 is “atrocious”? Tough crowd.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
OPS+
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
If you're gonna call a left fielder
an “offensive upgrade” over a guy with a 113, then yeah, that’s kinda atrocious. Not terrible on face, though.
Goldschmidt happens.
For a corner outfielder/DH
With a poor glove, yeah, that’s really bad. Let’s not forget that the only reason Parra is worth anything as a baseball player is because his glove provides a full win above the average LFer. He’d be a bench player without that value.
For comparison’s sake, Seth Smith and his 115 wRC+ is on the trade market because Colorado just got Cuddyer. Kubel’s wRC+ last year was 110. Smith is basically the same player as an outfielder – probably a bit better – and is making $3MM in arbitration next year and would cost a pitching prospect. How Smith wouldn’t have been a better acquisition than Kubel is beyond me.
Kubel will gain some support by hitting 20 homers next year, but he’ll do it while quietly sapping value from the club in the field, especially compared to the cheaper, younger, better Parra.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
I think you over-estimate a lot of things
Last season, the average AL left-fielder had an OPS of .704. Kubel, in a sub-par year for him, in a park which kills left-handed home-runs, was at .766. How is that “really bad”?
Answer: it simply isn’t. And repeating it, as you’ve done in at least three separate places, doesn’t make it so.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
If we had someone with a .704 OPS and average glove as the LF incumbent
And were trying to contend, that’d be one thing. We have someone with a .784 OPS and plus glove in LF as the incumbent. Defensive value alone, Parra’s at least one win better than Kubel. More likely a win and a half. Kubel’s salary also dictates that he needs to contribute an extra win, win-and-a-half over Parra for us to be contenders on our budget. Is Kubel’s bat worth two-and-a-half wins over Parra’s over a full season? I’m not seeing it.
Yeah, Kubel has value compared to an average player. This is all relative, and I don’t see $7.5MM worth of upgrade here. On a two-year contract, that’s frustrating. One-year deal, and I get over it as an upside play that Kubel happens to explode in 2012 and crush 30 home runs out of nowhere. Two-year deal, and I’m really confused.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 7:04 PM EST up reply actions
And now you're changing the subject
You weren’t comparing Kubel to anything. You just described Kubel’s 2011 as “atrocious” and “really bad”. And you’re flat-out wrong.
I get it, you don’t like the deal. But you make it seem like we just signed Alex Rios or Vernon Wells.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
A 1.1 fWAR and 1.3 bWAR guy
Isn’t good. You can throw hyperbole at me, fine, but pretending Kubel was good is also peculiar. Whether or not you want to blame park factors is your choice, but that doesn’t change the fact that Kubel had a substandard year for an everyday player.
Of course it’s not Rios or Wells. That’s as much of hyperbole as calling him atrocious.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 7:14 PM EST up reply actions
You were the one hyperbolizing
“Atrocious”? “Really bad”?
And, of course, those numbers were in less than 100 games. Add another 50%+ on for a full season, and you’re looking at 2 bWAR. What was Parra’s number in 2011, easily his best career year? 1.9 bWAR.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
2.8 fWAR
The stat that doesn’t use OPS, the inferior offensive metric that overrates power (Kubel’s specialty) and underrates OBP (what Parra does well).
Even if you pro-rate Kubel’s average 1.2 bWAR/fWAR mean to 2, it’s less than Parra’s 2.4 bWAR/fWAR mean. You need to expect significant movement for it to make $7.5MM worth of sense.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 7:23 PM EST up reply actions
Those numbers
also include Kubel playing a ton of DH, where he doesn’t get penalized for his terrible defense.
Goldschmidt happens.
I have to add
That whenever you’re assessing someone as a baseball player, you’re comparing him to something. You can call Vernon Wells “atrocious,” but if the basis of comparison is the normal human being, he’s obviously an excellent baseball player. Your basis of comparison happens to be “MLB average,” and mine happens to be “average MLB regular,” because that’s what we just paid Kubel $15MM to be. That doesn’t mean I’m flat-out wrong, it means I have a different basis of comparison. You’re right that I have higher expectations, and I feel that’s justified because we just paid him like we should have higher expectations. Why should we care if he’s better than MLB average? MLB average includes a ton of backups and fourth outfielders who should be inferior hitters to the average everyday left fielder, because they a) typically aren’t good enough to have everyday spots for a reason and b) are fourth outfielders because they can play all three outfield spots, and thus are more often speed types who lack the traditional power of corner outfielders in order to capably man CF every now and then.
Here’s the group of players I care about comparing Kubel to. Just six qualifying right fielders (out of 23) and 11 qualifying left fielders (out of 20) had worse wRC+ totals than Kubel did in 2011 (110). The LF list: Brett Gardner, Jason Bay, Alfonso Soriano, Juan Rivera, Ryan Ludwick, Raul Ibanez, Delmon Young, Martin Prado, Carl Crawford, Juan Pierre, Vernon Wells. The RF list: Torii Hunter, Nick Markakis, Jayson Werth, David DeJesus, Kosuke Fukudome, and Ichiro. (Gerardo Parra didn’t qualify, FWIW – even if you add him, the percentage still sucks.)
So basically you have Brett Gardner and a bunch of disappointing, overpaid guys who are only qualifying regulars because of their bloated salaries. I sure as hell hope Kubel out-performs that crowd. Gardner is awesome because of his defense. The rest is guys like Rivera who get one-year $4MM contracts and ex-stars/rebound candidates.
Remember, offense is Kubel’s strength, and he’s not even that good at it among qualifying everyday players at his position! Better than 17 of 43 qualifiers! Add that to a UZR/150 of -17.0 in the outfield for his career, and how do you get a decent everyday outfielder worth paying $15MM to? I’m not seeing it. If you want a corner outfield upgrade, there are plenty of options – Willingham, Beltran, Cuddyer – worth exploring. Jason Kubel is not one of them.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
11 qualifying left fielders (out of 20) had worse wRC+ totals than Kubel did in 2011
That would seem to prove my point, no? 9th out of 20 is neither “atrocious,” nor “really bad”, by any definition.
I’m really not sure how you argue Cuddyer “worth exploring” and Kubel “atrocious”. Cuddyer cost the Rockies 50% more, is three years older, has a lower career OPS and over the past six seasons has posted -5.3 dWAR compared to Kubel’s -0.9 dWAR. It doesn’t make much sense.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 12:29 AM EST up reply actions
Cuddyer
can play more positions, that’s why his dWAR is lower. Replacement-level defense for a LF is pretty lousy.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
Combine corner outfield categories
Rather than picking just LFers. Positional adjustments are the same for a reason – the positions are practically identical, except that RFers are expected to have better throwing arms. Heck, Kubel has spent most of his time in RF in recent years anyways. Better than just 17 of 43 qualifiers is not good. Considering that many of the guys below him on the list are below-replacement-level scum, he’s really bad for an everyday outfielder. That’s exactly what I mean.
Because Cuddyer had a 124 wRC+ last year to Kubel’s 110? Comparing dWAR straight-up between the two represents a fundamental misunderstanding of dWAR – dWAR is simply the Rfield component that B-R uses, NOT the Rpos component, which is incorporated into oWAR. Thus, Kubel’s dWAR is relatively higher because he doesn’t spend much time in the field – the huge positional adjustment from his time at DH is incorporated into his oWAR, and completely ignored by his dWAR. Since he spends so little time in the field, he doesn’t have as much of an opportunity to butcher his own dWAR component. They’re not comparable between Cuddyer and Kubel. Further, Cuddyer’s poor dWAR is largely from his misguided time at third base, where he doesn’t belong. He’s more capable as an outfielder than a third baseman. Cuddyer’s career UZR/150 as an outfielder is -6.2, Kubel’s is -17.0 – a more apples-to-apples comparison, though the merits of UZR can be debated separately.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
Kubel will not be playing RF for Arizona
So what he did in comparison to other right fielders is of no relevance to this deal. He’ll be playing LF – an easier defensive position. Where he ranks among RF is about as relevant for analyzing this deal, as where Trevor Cahill ranks among SS.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 12:45 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If you believe that RF and LF are separate skills, it is
But they aren’t. It’s why you project outfield prospects into either center field or an outfield corner. It’s why Gerardo Parra is as phenomenal a RFer as he is a LFer. It’s why Kubel has nearly identical career innings played in LF and RF (1461.2 in LF vs. 1625.2 in RF).
In other words, if we were to switch Upton and Kubel in our outfield alignment, we’d probably see next to no difference in defensive value. So why would each player’s relative value change as a result?
Hardly the same as switching Cahill to shortstop.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:50 AM EST up reply actions
A "phenomenal" RF?
Based on less than 390 career innings there: about 43 games. Pardon me if I hold my judgment on that, since defensive metrics typically need multiple seasons to have any degree of reliability.
But even if – for argument’s sake – I accept this claim, so Kubel ranked 25th of 43 total corner outfielders. In a sub-par year for him, when he missed seven weeks on the DL.
Given he’s moving to an easier defensive position, and a park that’s considerably more friendly to left-handed power hitters, is it such a stretch to have his 2012 move up a mere five places – which would make him above-average? That’s even among your carefully-constructed sample of “everyday” players, which by definition largely excludes “scrubs”.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 1:00 AM EST up reply actions
Even assuming
the injuries aren’t a harbinger of things to come, it’s tough to really argue that Kubel will benefit from playing LF instead of RF when he’s 1. not particularly good at LF either, and 2. not going to have the WAR-helping and injury-preventing advantage of playing DH. And you’re not even taking age-related decline into account.
Goldschmidt happens.
Besides,
Dan was using wRC+, which shouldn’t be affected by moving to a new park, in theory. And I think Chase would help his power more than his OBP anyway, and OBP is the driving force behind wRC+.
Goldschmidt happens.
Have you had any qualms with Parra going into RF?
If he’s so great in left, shouldn’t you have bemoaned him going into RF to spell Upton? Shouldn’t someone else have gone there to keep Parra in LF where he’s so much better?
So, sure, Kubel’s 2011 was a down year, let’s go to his 2010 instead. His wRC+ in 2010 was an admittedly-massive improvement on his 2011, with a figure of…. 102.
Was it really the foot injury? Because he was awful in 2010 as well. Some injury in 2010 I don’t know about to explain that one?
Kubel has to improve beyond just a park adjustment, because wRC+ will already expect better things at Chase than the raw stats he put up in Target because it does some park adjusting on its own. So basically you’re expecting that he a) doesn’t regress to 2010 Kubel, b) regresses to 2009 Kubel, and c) benefits more from Chase Field than the park adjustments suggest he should, and that’s just for him to become an above-average everyday corner outfielder should he remain healthy for a full season. For $15MM, that’s a lot of hopes, especially since we had a quality player for $500k already.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 1:07 AM EST up reply actions
That c
is what’s bothering me so much, I think. B-R has Target multiyear park factors at only 98 — that’s hardly the pitcher’s haven that everyone’s trying to call it.
Though parks might also help explain Kubel’s poor defensive ratings. I dunno about Target, but the Metrodome was turrable defensively for outfielders. Wonder how much that had an effect.
Goldschmidt happens.
Kubel's split last year
Home: .253/.314/.377 = .690 OPS
Road: .288/.345/.476 = .821 OPS
Since moving to Target, 21 of his 33 home-runs have been hit on the road. Justin Morneau: 18 of 22 on the road. I think there’s a black hole under the turn down the left-field line.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 1:21 AM EST up reply actions
It's certainly possible,
but that’s not necessarily entirely because of park factors — especially within a single season. Check out the Dbacks’ pitchers last year at home and on the road.
Goldschmidt happens.
That was across the entire history of Target Field
Admittedly, two seasons, but when your left-handed sluggers hit 39 home runs on the road, and 16 at home… Claiming coincidence is a real stretch.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 1:29 AM EST up reply actions
It's not 100% one or the other, though.
But if Kubel was injured last year, that has an immediate effect on those numbers. This is one of my biggest problems with park factors, as currently calculated — they’re heavily team-reliant. They can give you big trends, but not smaller details.
Goldschmidt happens.
Not sure
missing seven weeks on the DL necessarily should impact his wRC+. We’re not talking about WAR.
Goldschmidt happens.
I think hitting .229 after his return probably did
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 1:25 AM EST up reply actions
If 2011's mediocrity was because of injury
Explain why his wRC+ was worse in 2010.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 1:27 AM EST up reply actions
[Shrug]
Only if you can explain why his wRC+ was better in 2009.
Stuff varies. It happens.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 1:31 AM EST up reply actions
He was 27 and peaking, which isn't unusual?
Imma be AWESOME in vintage next year, for the same reason.
Goldschmidt happens.
Since you're here
Miley article?
[I Tweeted you about it, but didn’t get a reply…]
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 1:32 AM EST up reply actions
Groovy
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 1:37 AM EST up reply actions
So why is 2011 so easy to blame on injury
When it was an improvement from the year before?
Just seems too dismissive of that data.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 1:33 AM EST up reply actions
Part of the reason
Parra is just about as good a RF as LF, though, is because RF is more arm-dependent than LF, and Parra has a great arm. (As does Upton)
Goldschmidt happens.
out of nowhere?
Jose Bautista never hitting more than 16 home runs to 58 is out of nowhere. For a guy like Kubel whose already hit 28 to go to 30? I think that’s just progress.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
That was back in 2009
Since then, he’s fallen to 21 then 12. 30 a year after 12 is more than progress.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
We are not talking
about a 5 year difference. It’s 2 years and he was injured last which explains the 12. He’s 30, he’s still well within his prime.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
The 21, then?
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
Some regression
but you act like 30 is some way out of reach number where in reality he has hit 28 before so it’s not some crazy idea nor does it necessitate him coming out of nowhere to hit 30.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
It would be a career year
At age 30. When you expect career years from people, you find yourself being underwhelmed quite often.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
LF bat
less important in the AL, where you have the DH. Average NL LF last year was at .748.
The issue is the difference between him and Parra. If Willie Bloomquist were our erstwhile starting LF, then I’d agree with this move.
Goldschmidt happens.
No, the issue
Is Dan describing a comfortably-above average season from Kubel as “atrocious” and “really bad”.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
But if you insist
Career OPS:
Parra: 94
Kubel: 112
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
Comparing career trends for a 25-year-old and a 30-year-old
Is hardly a fair comparison.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
Neither is projecting
A player who last had a .784 OPS for a full season back in rookie-ball, to continue it.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 7:21 PM EST up reply actions
ARL in the minor leagues is a powerful thing.
A .760 OPS in Double-A as a 21-year-old for a corner outfielder with a one-win glove is phenomenal.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
As I said earlier,
I’m not sure why Gerardo Parra’s age 22 season should have as much relevance in predicting future performance as age 24, and vice versa for Kubel.
Goldschmidt happens.
Consistency?
Parra’s OPS+ by season: 88, 79, 113
Kubel’s OPS 110, 115, 136, 105, 111
Tell me, which one is more likely to post an OPS+ over 100 next year?: The guy who broke 90 for the first-ever time, or the guy who has done it five years in a row?
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 7:34 PM EST up reply actions
Regardless
This isn’t Logan’s Run. You don’t die at the age of 30.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 7:44 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
You don't
usually get better, either, barring pharmacology.
Alright, let’s look at B-R’s similar batters for Jason Kubel through age 29:
Rico Brogna: OPS+ of 94 at age 29, 59 at age 30, out of baseball at 32
Jay Gibbons: 106 age 29, 62 age 30
Willie Aikens: 149 age 28, 83 age 29, out of baseball age 31
Rip Repulski: 102 age 29, 83 age 30
Marty Cordova: 108 age 29, 65 age 30, though rebounded for one more good season at 31
Pete O’Brien: 112 age 29, 111 age 30, 105 age 31, 74 age 32
Andres Galarraga: 99 age 29, 70 age 30, though had more good seasons down the road
Lee Thomas: 128 age 29, 70 age 30, out of baseball age 33
Nick Esasky: 133 age 29, 18 age 30, out of baseball age 31
Carl Everett: 135 age 29, 97 age 30, though had one more year above 100
Looking at the comparisons not through age 29 are harder to identify trends, though Xavier Nady, with a 127 at age 29 and 88 at age 30, jumps out.
So, of Kubel’s similar batters through age 29, 9 out of 10 saw their OPS+ decline at age 30. The only exception was Willie Aikens, who had a 149 OPS+ at age 28, and 83 at age 29, and an 85 at age 30, which might as well be statistical noise. The average decline was by 53 points of OPS+. If Kubel follows his forebears, that gives him an expected OPS+ of 58 next year.
Let’s really, really hope that he’s Pete O’Brien or Andres Galarraga.
Goldschmidt happens.
Without
going into similar detail, 7 out of 10 of Gerardo Parra’s comps by age improved their OPS+ from age 24 to age 25, too.
Goldschmidt happens.
I laughed at Logan's run
Loved that movie.
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
Kubel is, of course
But you act like that’s the only factor we should give a crap about.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
Simply calling into question
Your repeated labeling of him as “atrocious”, etc.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions
Basis of comparison.
See my most recent comment above. I think it’s actually quite fair.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
Okay, read it.
Good stuff Dan. To me, the $ is the worst part of it. We complained about the 1-2 year deals for fringy veterany players last year (and this year), but they were smaller contracts ($ wise). This is 2 to 3 times larger than those.
I got nothin'.
by Bcawz on Dec 19, 2011 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Normally, I don't pay attention to the money thing
but this deal seriously handicaps the ability to make some sensible deals, like locking up Montero. Maybe KK told KT that it is okay to expand the payroll?
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
3/36 for Beltran is a potential disaster
He had a good bounce back year in 2011, but he has had a lot of leg issues and isn’t getting any younger. Agree Beltran would be worth an extra $5M/year on a two year deal, but unless Beltran’s resurrection continues, the Kubel contract might be easier to move after the first year if AZ needed to make room for an OF prospect.
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 19, 2011 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
Beltran's 2010 was bad
But every other year in recent memory has been special. At least when you get Beltran, you know that when he’s on the field, he’ll be incredible and worth every penny you pay him. With Parra behind him, you know you have a quality fill-in if Beltran gets hurt for a while. Kind of like what we did with having Hernandez in the eighth to fill in for Putz when Putz needed to go on the DL for a while. With Kubel, you’re not seeing any real gain in production, even when he’s healthy.
Beltran is riskier because of the cost, but there’s actual expected gain. Not seeing it with Kubel.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
agree
that 3/36 for Beltran would not be advisable
but i think we could have gotten Beltran for 2 years
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
Not advisable
Probably better than Kubel.
2/26 for Beltran would be ideal, IMO, if we wanted a LF upgrade. Just throwing out the possibility that the Beltran market has a higher asking price than we know.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
I was pretty "meh" about the move
Before I read this. Now, I’m actively angry.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 6:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i just have to ask
do you still hate my proposed plan to sign Reyes in light of what we did with the money anyway?
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 10:47 PM EST up reply actions
I'd rather have Rollins or Beltran than Reyes still.
But if I had to choose between Bloomquist/Kubel/Hill and Reyes, I’d probably go for Reyes.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
i wish i could fast forward to the end of next season
and see how this works out. there’s no room and someone we like will get shafted/traded.
"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd
Interesting Old-school Stat:
Career fielding records:
Parra- 792 Total Chances, 13 Errors, .984 Fielding Percentage
Kubel- 738 Total Chances, 13 Errors, .982 Fielding Percentage
Riding the Gibbytrain since 2011!
Not that interesting
How many runners has Korbel cold-bloodedly cut down in their prime?
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
Oops, typo
Kubel. Sorry Korbel.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
9 assists in 58 outfield games last year
That’s a better rate than Parra (12 in 125 games)
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
So, he had 'em fooled then?
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
Playing ethnic stereotypes here...
Jim, as a true-blue Scotsman, do you really think this deal was worth the money, for whatever pluses you and some of the others are citing?
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
I'm going with "meh" again
What else might we spend $7m on? Joe Saunders?
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 7:01 PM EST up reply actions
Montero extension
Would be my top choice.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 7:04 PM EST up reply actions
Because
The last catcher extension worked out sooooo well…
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 7:10 PM EST up reply actions
Do you really think
the players are the same in terms of caliber and temperament? If so, then you have a point.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
I think signing catchers to long-term deals
Is an inherently dodgy proposition, because I doubt any position on the diamond is more likely to break down, simply through normal wear and tear.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 7:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yup
but Montero is an integral part to working with this strong pitching staff. Having to bring in someone to replace him in a couple of seasons could throw the whole shooting match out of whack until the new guy learns the pitchers and vice versa. A very risky proposition, imo.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
One way or another
We’ll have to sign a catcher to play in 2013, because we don’t have one locked up through then. I’ll take Montero over the field.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 7:18 PM EST up reply actions
Yup
see my comment immediately above yours.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 7:18 PM EST up reply actions
As would depending on a free agent downgrade
For a team that’s trying to win now?
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
i told you
we weren’t going to be able to sign an extension for Montero
the world doesn’t work that way. and of course, KT doesn’t work that way.
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
I mean
realistically, he might turn out to be a fine player, dominating at the plate and the field, and some of us (me) will feel a bit foolish. But we’ve been conditioned to appreciate ‘organic baseball,’ and so a signing like this looks very extravagant.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
As a RF.
For that matter, Upton only had 5 in 159 games. Pretty sure that’s not a good way to gauge defensive ability.
Goldschmidt happens.
Why does
Parra have more chances in left field than Kubel despite Kubel playing mainly LF for seven seasons?
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
Parra = 276 games in LF, Kubel = 188
Kubel has played mainly DH and RF, not LF.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
Oops,
I thought they’d stick their worst defensive outfielder in LF, but then I forgot about Cuddyer…
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
There's a reason Kubel's a DH
Let’s walk away from the Stone Age, people. You can’t make errors on balls you don’t reach, and Kubel doesn’t reach balls that Parra does. Salt Pillar defense is not good defense.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
I was going to post that.
I couldn’t the first time I read through this thread and wondered why nobody had looked at the actual stats.
Kubel is getting dinged unfairly for defense. While not as good defensively, he’s not bad. Most of the criticism of him defensively is that he DH’d a lot and people are worried about his knees and speculating that it will cause him to falter defensively.
I think this is just an example of how fans overrate or overvalue their own and undervalue others in comparison. I like Parra, but he’s not a starting corner outfielder because he doesn’t hit for power or drive in runs. He’s also not productive hitting higher in the order. He’s a light hitting 8 hole hitter who will run down balls and has a good gun. But I love him as a 4th OF because he can play all the positions and come in as a defensive specialist later in games.
I’m not sure why so many fans don’t get this move. Parra was a major liability in the order in the NLDS. If the D’backs have Kubel in that lineup rather than Parra, they win that series. I was begging for them to add a LH power bat that can also hit for average at either LF or 3B. This allows them to hit Kubel at 4th or 5th and move Montero down around 6th or 7th in the order where he belongs. Having a LH bat that can hit 30 HR’s (at Chase Field), drive in over 100 runs and hit .275-.280 in the middle of your lineup that lacks LH power is huge.
Yes, they lose a little something defensively, but this move makes this club stronger all around. Parra will play a lot and he’ll contribute defensively. Bloomquist can become the untility IF and 5th OF and Blum can go away. You can’t go into the season banking on Goldy to be your cleanup hitter. He’s too young and unproven. If he plays his way there this season, great. You’ve got a good 5 hole hitter in Kubel. If not, Kubel can hold down the cleanup spot better and more consistently than anybody they had there last year. This move makes sense on so many levels, it seems strange that I’m one of the only ones wondering why they didn’t do this sooner.
So much I don't agree with
Mainly, though, is the notion that Kubel is acceptable defensively. He’s a -17.0 career UZR/150 guy in the outfield. TZ has him as a career -9 defender, which is a massive split from UZR (-41.8 career) with similar positional adjustments. Regardless of which one you believe, spending a full season in the outfield is only going to wear down his body more and make him less effective than he was when he had an opportunity to rest in the DH spot with Minnesota.
It could get really ugly.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
Well
If Upton is acceptable to you defensively, I don’t know why Kubel won’t be, or why Montero at C is and Montero plays a much more critical position when it comes to defense.
One of the interesting dichotomies I’ve noticed reading through this thread is both the popular opinion that giving up some defensive acumen in LF here is tragic, but re-signing Montero is an imperative because he can hit a little. I’d rather have my gold glover, light hitter behind the plate and my big hitter, suspect defender in LF. I’m aware it’s an opinion not all will share in this case.
Oh dear.
Upton is way better than acceptable. He’s excellent.
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
Sorry, but no
Wish it were true, but no. I love him, he’s an excellent player, but he’s nowhere near excellent defensively.
Sorry...
…all the defensive metrics disagree with you.
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
No, they ALL don't
Of that I’m certain. For one thing, I do believe he led all OF in errors last year, or at least was right there at the top.
But I’m also certain that my eyeballs disagree with some of the metrics you think say otherwise.
The eyeball test
is usually a good reality check for defensive metrics, but it can be plenty deceiving, especially in its inability to properly evaluate range.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:53 AM EST up reply actions
Good example:
Derek Jeter. By the eyeball test, he’s still awesome.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
My eyeballs can evaluate range
Upton has good range. Yep, eyeballs still work.
that's unfortunately
the biggest part of defense in the outfield
seriously, if you watch Upton play i don’t understand how you can’t think he’s an amazing RF
i don’t think i’m going to forget for a long time that insane leaping catch where he had to race down a screaming line drive off the bat of Beltran for what was assuredly a triple against 95% of the RF’er in baseball
by blue bulldog on Dec 20, 2011 1:07 AM EST up reply actions
I remember that play
It was sexy.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 1:08 AM EST up reply actions
I can.
He does make dumb errors from time to time, that part’s not in dispute. I’m not doubting Fangdango’s honesty.
Goldschmidt happens.
Every defensive metric disagrees with you.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:18 AM EST up reply actions
I think
your opinion is a lagging indicator of defensive ability.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
Okay,
I think your opinion might be a lagging indicator of defensive talent.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:49 AM EST up reply actions
Because Montero developed into an excellent defensive catcher last year
In terms of what’s easily observable and what most people consider to be “good catching” (throwing), adding onto the qualities that are less observable (clubhouse presence, working with the pitchers, framing) that he was already excellent at. Doesn’t really allow too many passed balls, either, though I could be wrong about that. I do know that he’s a phenomenal framer.
Upton. I’m not going there. That dead horse is mangled enough. Comparing Kubel’s defense to Upton’s defense is ludicrous.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
No, he really didn't
He definitely improved during the season throwing. As a backstop though, still leaves a lot to be desired. I know they kept talking about how he was working with Joe and really wanted to get better last year, and I’m sure hearing what fans wanted to hear made them believe it, but he is still flat out sloppy when it comes to balls in the dirt. He just isn’t very deft with the leather, but he’s becoming passable defensively as long as he keeps hitting.
I’m not sure I’d compare Kubel’s defense to Upton’s. Kubel doesn’t get to all the balls Upton does, but he also doesn’t misplay as many chances. Upton’s upside is definitely higher there, but I think a bunch of people confuse that with actual defense.
The point being, sacrificing D for O seems to be acceptable in some cases, but not Kubel’s. Just like with Jup and Montero, D’backs fans will quickly be happy to overlook the defensive sacrifice or even overrate him defensively if he’s producing at the plate. You’ll see.
Of course, if he doesn’t hit, all the angst over this move will rain down like the tears after a game 5 NLDS loss, and I’ll be there right with you raining. He has to hit for it to be worth it.
Miggy
was “excellent defensively” because he was fantastic at throwing out baserunners down the stretch.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
Framing.
Don’t underestimate it. Check out the “Removing the Mask” feature from Mike Fast from Baseball Prospectus. I can’t offer up more evidence that he’s a good catcher than that study provides.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
Because
a catcher who can hit is much more valuable?
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
i'm telling you
you’re going to think differently about this, when IPK gives up a bases-clearing double to the left-center gap that Parra would have run down
having seen a couple of Twins game this year with Kubel in the field…..there’s a difference between him and Parra and it ain’t pretty and the extra doubles WILL matter
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
I also
love the idea that a 30 year old dude with two knee injuries and a foot injury is gonna be “just fine” playing LF everyday.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
It's like nobody realizes that there's a reason he DHs so much.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
Well
it’s not like it matters! Don’t you know that the Dbacks are getting moved to the American League? Oh. Wait. Nevermind
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
To suggest
that the d’backs are going to the AL is tongue-bite worthy…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:15 PM EST up reply actions
I think this is just an example of how fans overrate or overvalue their own and undervalue others in comparison. I like Parra, but he’s not a starting corner outfielder because he doesn’t hit for power or drive in runs. He’s also not productive hitting higher in the order. He’s a light hitting 8 hole hitter who will run down balls and has a good gun. But I love him as a 4th OF because he can play all the positions and come in as a defensive specialist later in games.
Dude just won a Gold Glove. It’s not just us. Also, probably something on the order of 90% of outside observers are panning the signing, too.
It’s not just a bunch of silly Dbacks fans overvaluing their guy. Also, I would’ve been just fine with adding a LH power bat at 3B, depending on the price.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
And I'd have been fine adding an upgrade on Parra
Kubel just isn’t it. Beltran for 2/26? Bring it on. Let’s kick some NL West ass for two years and use Parra to fill in the gaps when Beltran needs DL time. Kubel? Ugh.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmm
Kubel seems to be an issue because of one injury plagued year just last year.
But bring on Beltran, a guy who’s never healthy and put up Kubel-like numbers last year which is the first time since 2008 he’s done so?
This is laughably inaccurate.
Kubel fWAR by year since 2007: 0.4, 0.7, 2.7, -0.2, 1.1.
Beltran fWAR by year since 2007: 5.5, 7.6, 3.0, 0.8, 4.7.
Beltran’s second worst season in the past five years is better than Kubel’s best season in the last five years. He had an injury-riddled 2010 and has been spectacular in every other year in the last five. First time since 2008? Kubel wishes he could have a year like Carlos Beltran’s 2009 season.
Try again.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
Trying to play through a bone bruise
didn’t help his 2009 numbers, and 2010 included a late start due to recovery from the surgery to fix the problem. Judging by 2010 he recovered.
link
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
Beltran?
Definitely. He’s been spectacular whenever he’s on the field, 2010 excepted.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
And yes
Kubel’s “healthy” 2010 season that was supposed to show how he can produce so much power and be so good at the plate when healthy? Negative fWAR.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
This again?
Dude averaged 152 games per season before 2009, and played 141 last year. Was injured much of 2009 and 2010, though when he’s healthy, he’s so awesome that you take the injury risk so long as he plays 130+ games or so.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
Kubel wishes he could do in 150 games
What Beltran did in 81 in 2009.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 1:00 AM EST up reply actions
Nobody is denying the gold glove
As I said in the post, Parra doesn’t give you what you need from that position at the plate.
I don’t know and I don’t care what outside observers say. I don’t think most of them understand that Parra didn’t suddenly disappear. He and his gold glove will still be an integral part of this team, unless he’s traded of course.
have you considered
why Kubel has way fewer chances despite the fact that he’s been in baseball for way longer?
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
Blood temperature wasn't documented, but
assists favor Parra 29 to 23
Riding the Gibbytrain since 2011!
I know I'm in the minority...
but I really like this move. The stat guys think it’s terrible, I know. But I am not one of the Parra lovers. I think he has regression written all over him and I’ve stated my case against Parra on here at length. (And Dan has been pretty vociferous in his defense of him.) But we really needed another bat on this team and especially a LH power bat. It improves our bench dramatically. It gives us major injury protection in our OF. It gives Gibby more lineup flexibility. He can bench CY against righties he can’t hit. We now get a late inning PH at bat with someone other than McDonald or Blum. Etc, etc.
With the team clearly in Win Now Mode, this can only help. We also get 50 or so DH at bats from him during inter-league. For those who think Parra walks on water, I’m sure you hate this move. But I don’t think he does and I like adding some serious pop in left field. I always this this was the one area the team had an opportunity to improve. I just keep remembering Parra 1 for 25 in the playoffs. Yeah, yeah, small sample size, whatever.
This gets a big thumbs up from me.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Dec 19, 2011 6:22 PM EST reply actions
Its a lot of hand-tying money
for a position that wasn’t weak to begin with.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
I guess we don't agree...
that the position was weak. I feel the position was going to be weak with zero power. And it’s about time he spent some money since taking over the team.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Dec 19, 2011 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
I keep telling folks
if you’re really desperate to spend money, I got a nice vintage Bentley…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
If he can hit .280, 25, 95 bring him on.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Dec 19, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
For $7,500,000 a season
when he’s not a significant upgrade? No thanks, I’ll pass.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
if he can
bring us financial difficulties for the next four years and provide us a very small upgrade over the guy we have now, let’s not.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
And what if he brings a substantial upgrade?
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Dec 19, 2011 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
Haha, I get your point
I really do. But you have to believe Gibby signed off on this don’t you? And so what does that say if Gibby wasn’t sold on Parra being our everyday left fielder.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Dec 19, 2011 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
well then
Im not really sure why he’d be sold on Kubel being our everyday left fielder then
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
The manager
isn’t necessarily always the best judge of talent. Remember, this is also the guy who insists on batting Willie Bloomquist leadoff.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 6:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
I'd say that was judging talent well
He had nobody else who was a competent leadoff hitter. He went with what he had. Bloomquist hit .270 with a .320 OBP and sole 19 bases batting leadoff last year.
Um...
a .320 OBP is below league average, dude.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
Below average for what?
Based on the roster he had, it was above average. You seem to have mistaken my comment to mean Bloomquist is a great leadoff hitter.
No, just the best they had.
Parra,
CY, Hill, Roberts all would’ve made better leadoff hitters. Bloomquist’s .317 OBP was 9th on the team.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
We are talking leadoff
Hill wasn’t even here most of the year. He only played 33 games for the D’backs and only hit .235 as a leadoff hitter.
CY hit .235 and and has proven to be a totally ineffective leadoff hitter for years now.
Roberts hit .202 in the leadoff spot. Terrible.
Some guys don’t fit in the spot. Bloomquist fit better than the others.
Where we disagree
Is that you think spot-in-the-lineup splits have predictive value, even in samples of 170 (Roberts), 34 (Parra), and 94 (Young) plate appearances. Those samples are egregiously small and provide next to no real value. Again, Bloomquist hit .250/.294/.250 in 17 plate appearances in the ninth spot in the lineup. Does that mean Bloomquist somehow can’t adapt to the ninth spot in the lineup? No, that’s stupid, the 9th spot is one of the most low-pressure spots in the order. Assuming these splits have value is a shaky assumption at best over such small sample sizes.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
Again
The sample sizes over their careers is big enough for all but Parra and the statistics are quite consistent with what you see with those guys as hitters. I.e., not leadoff hitters. Not patient, willing to work the count, shorten their stroke and make contact, etc. Those are the things, combined with their history, that give it predictive value.
Parra might develop into that. Bloomquist does it better than anybody on the roster did last year though. I’d be more than happy to find a better leadoff hitter though. Somebody with excellent speed that makes the pitcher work, gets on base and puts pressure on the defense. I’d love that. Wish they had a guy like that on the roster.
I somewhat disagree with Dan here.
I don’t think the information’s entirely worthless, in aggregate. For example, I feel like Stephen Drew always seemed to hit better at leadoff.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
Correlation or causation?
Did Drew hit better leadoff because of some innate ability, or because the team would move him there for his hot streaks then move him lower as he started struggling?
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
I've asked the same question in the past.
No real way to know, but it’s not totally insane to suggest that there’s a different mindset.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:15 AM EST up reply actions
I'd say
It’s more on the side of insane to suggest there isn’t.
And every single MBL Manager would agree with that.
Finding players that have the physical tools to be good leadoff hitters is easy. Finding players who have the physical tools and the mental ones is hard.
Regardless of where you hit
The goal should be to get on base.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 1:09 AM EST up reply actions
That's not always the goal
And the goals aren’t always singular either. In fact, the goals are always multifaceted.
Sometimes the goal is to drive in runs. Sometimes it’s to get on base. Sometimes it’s just to move runners.
As a leadoff hitter, there are multiple goals. Make the pitcher work, give the guy on deck a good look, get on base, turn singles into doubles and walks into doubles so the guys behind you who’s job it is to move you or drive you in have the chance to do so, etc.
I think
“Give the guy on deck a look” is less important in today’s game, where video is so accessible. It’s all about reaching base.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 1:34 AM EST up reply actions
While true,
I think you should probably be slightly less dismissive of it. How many guys ACTUALLY watch video? And how easy do you think it is to translate video to hitting?
Goldschmidt happens.
Ehh
How easy is it to translate the leadoff guys saying “he’s throwing a good curveball” into hitting?
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 1:39 AM EST up reply actions
I don't know,
but just because it isn’t easy to quantify doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
Goldschmidt happens.
And I don't think
it’s as simple as the leadoff guy “saying” something.
What we should be researching is a dude’s batting performance with a certain other guy batting leadoff, but, again, it’s tough to isolate. The rest of the lineup may very well have actually hit better with Willie Bloomquist batting leadoff last year, but how do you show that in any meaningful way?
Goldschmidt happens.
Watching video
Doesn’t tell a hitter jack about what the pitcher’s stuff is like that day. And it was only one of several objectives/goals.
Hitting is not just about getting on base. There are such things as productive outs, though I know not all of that shows up on your guys’ “metrics”.
Oh, I totally agree
on your points, and I think it’s exceedingly impossible to narrow it down to metrics alone. That doesn’t, either, mean that they’re wrong, though.
Goldschmidt happens.
And what about what you've shown
Indicates that Bloomquist excels in these un-measurable productive outs? Is that what you’re saying?
I think a guy from the on-deck circle can see how sharp a curveball is, no? I’m just saying it’s overstated. Its importance has likely dwindled with the onset of video.
p.s. wRC+ measures value of sac flies, so it doesn’t ignore productive outs despite your claims. Seriously, dude, know the facts.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 2:57 AM EST up reply actions
Sample size not big enough for Roberts
Sorry, but 270 PA is less than half a season for a leadoff hitter. Not a significant enough sample. And I mentioned already that CY has developed significantly since his rookie year with Arizona, when he spent a ton of time at leadoff under BoMel with a sub-.300 OBP. That’s obviously dragging down his career figure there.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
Somebody with excellent speed that makes the pitcher work, gets on base and puts pressure on the defense.
They do. His name is Justin Upton.
Seriously, though, that was Drew in 2010. He has the tools to make it happen. Let’s hope he can.
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
actually
i wouldn’t be entirely against batting Upton lead off
it would at least mean that our best hitter would get the most chances to bat
by blue bulldog on Dec 20, 2011 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
I'd rather
bat Upton 1, 2, and 3. We can use ghost runners, right?
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
Players on the D-backs with higher OBPs than Bloomquist:
(Min. 100 PA)
Hill, Upton, Parra, Montero, Roberts, Goldschmidt, Young, Blanco, Drew.
So you could come up with an entire lineup of guys on the 2011 D-backs who had better OBP’s than Bloomquist. Bloomquist was a fine piece for us because he could play SS capably after Drew went down, but he had no business leading off.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
Please
Neither Hill, Upton, Montero, Blanco nor Goldschmidt are leadoff options. Drew wasn’t either in street cloths.
Young hit .235 in the leadoff spot. Parra hit .242 leadoff. Both with worse OBP hitting leadoff.
by Fangdango on Dec 19, 2011 10:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And Roberts
He hit .209 in the leadoff hole.
And .457
on Saturdays at Chase with 30% relative humidity while Armando Galarraga was pitching!
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
Winner.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
He hit .209 in 148 AB's
In the leadoff spot last year.
Hardly fits your joke, but I guess you think sticking it out for another 200 AB’s was the wise thing to do with a guy who’s never been a good hitter in that spot
In 129 PA
From July 20 to August 26, last year, Willie Bloomquist hit .237/.295/.339 as Arizona’s primary leadoff hitter. Clearly, sticking it out for another 100 plate appearances with Bloomquist in that spot wouldn’t have been wise.
This kind of analysis proves nothing.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
Of course they aren't
But neither was Bloomquist.
Small samples and leadoff splits aren’t something I believe have value. Unless you think that Bloomquist’s .250/.294/.250 line in 17 9th-hole PA’s suggests he just can’t be a 9-hole hitter, making claims based on small samples of leadoff hitting for other players is more than likely just small sample fluctuations.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
Stole 20 bases in 30 attempts.
That’s negative value.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
The pickings were slim
Chris Young was basically the same, but hit .235 in the leadoff spot. Parra was better, but then he batted .242 with an OBP of .265 in the leadoff spot.
He hit .236 all year
But at least he gets on-base 33% of the time and steals bases at a reasonable clip.
Also, those kind of splits chop up samples into egregiously small sizes. I see little reason to value them so heavily.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
You go with what you have
And the sample sizes were sufficient for Young and Roberts, but you can also go career if you like.
Robers is a career .214 hitter at leadoff.
Young .247.
Parra .267
I watched every game last year just like you guys, and it was pretty easy for me to see Bloomquist, especially prior to the injury, was the only guy who provided halfway decent results in the leadoff spot. I was sick and tired of Gibby trying Young and Roberts there actually. I guess this blog preached a different message than everybody I was around all season did.
Again
Roberts: career 244 PA leadoff
Parra: career 48 PA leadoff
Young is a big enough sample, but he’s also developed as a player since early in his career. That’s hardly an apples-to-apples comparison if you think his career leadoff splits indicate how he’ll perform at leadoff in his current form.
Actually, just because you have data doesn’t mean you have to use it. You put the guys who have the best aggregate OBP at the top of the lineup, because those kind of splits traditionally have been proven to provide little material value.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
It's simple
And at least we’ve eliminated the garbage and worked our way down to at least debatable options of Young and Parra.
With Young, however, his current form as a leadoff hitter is a perfect indication of what he is as a leadoff hitter. I’ve provided those numbers. They guy simply isn’t one. Has never developed into one. It’s too bad too, because he becomes a man without a good spot in the order.
Parra is a possibility, though he just seems to lack the discipline and mentality to be successful at that spot to me.
You can debate Parra, but that’s not a hill I’d be willing to die on when it comes to banging on Gibby for preferring Bloomquist in that spot.
You dismissing CY and Roberts as leadoff men
Confuses me. And saying Parra’s mentality doesn’t fit confuses me as well. But I’m okay with being confused. It’s the small samples of PA in leadoff spot splits being used as concrete evidence that is misleading, rather than just confusing.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
They are easy to dismiss
They don’t have the goods you need and want in that spot and they’ve proven that, unless you like leadoff hitters that hit below .250 and lead the team in K’s. Same reason I dismissed Kelly Johnson as a leadoff hitter.
I don’t know what’s confusing about the Parra comment though. I’m sure you watch the same guy I do who likes to swing away and rarely works an AB deep into the count. But, maybe he could develop in that role.
Parra had a higher OBP than Bloomquist
Even discounting his IBB total.
I just don’t believe that splits with such small samples within a single year have merit. I think the aggregate line of a player on the year is a better indicator of what he would do in the leadoff spot than a sliced-up sample of leadoff splits.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
It's easier
To have a higher OBP when you hit in front of the Pitcher.
And you might not have noticed, but I’ve been talking about characteristics that go beyond stats that are observable for a while now too. The stats only serve to support what is also observed in this case.
Which is why I discounted Parra's IBB's
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:14 AM EST up reply actions
And I very much noticed.
But Roberts hitting 2nd or 1st shouldn’t have a huge effect on his OBP.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:14 AM EST up reply actions
The .280 and 25
Are each figures he’s reached just once in his career.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
Chase field
is a jolly place
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
You're still assuming
That a guy entering his decline phase will have a career year at the plate. That’s a bold assumption. It’s not like every left-handed power bat comes to Chase and explodes: Adam LaRoche didn’t find Chase Field so jolly.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
You're not very jolly Dan.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
LaRoche
hit 25 HR, drove in 100 runs for the first time in his career, and got a multi-year deal from the Nats after a year in Chase. I don’t think he minded it too much.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
Given
that LaRoche hit 25 HR the previous two seasons, this isn’t really much of an argument. And using RBI is just dumb.
Goldschmidt happens.
of course it is
but so is saying “Adam LaRoche didn’t find Chase Field so jolly.” Did Chase Field suppress any of his numbers like a Petco or Target would? No, it gave him a venue to play for another year to get to that multi-year deal.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
by superwong18 on Dec 19, 2011 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
We're depending on Chase Field doing more
Than just helping keep Kubel’s numbers steady from 2011 to 2012. If Kubel puts up a 2011-type line, this will be a train wreck. Arizona’s brass is counting on more.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 7:07 PM EST up reply actions
you're right it will be a train wreck
because Kubel only played 100 games in 2011. You can give me an example like Adam LaRoche and his time in Chase Field, but I could come right back with Tony Clark. Sure, Kubel could end up flopping, but he could also improve his numbers here and it’s only fair that you take that into consideration also.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
by superwong18 on Dec 19, 2011 8:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Which is why you consider
Both positive and negative outcomes. Rather than just saying “d00d he’ll hit .280 with 30 HR at Chase!” like you implied.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
And if you read my comment more thoroughly
you would see that I said “Sure, Kubel could end up flopping” rather than being condescending and rude by saying that I implied "d00d he’ll hit .280 with 30 HR at Chase!" which I in fact did not do. In fact, it was sonic barracuda that said he could produce .295, 25, 95 at Chase so I’m not really sure where you’re getting .280 with 30 HR.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
by superwong18 on Dec 19, 2011 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Sorry about the confusion
Someone said 30 HR somewhere, and at this point, it’s hard to keep track of who I’m arguing with with all of the arguments going on. “sonic,” “super,” stuff gets mixed up. My bad. Just not getting how Kubel’s worth $7.5MM on a small-market club that needs wins to cost a lot less than the standard $5MM measuring-stick, and this argument that Chase can turn him into a superhuman even after, y’know, the more stringent park adjustments, and while considering defensive value over Parra… it’s all confusing and I’ve yet to see an argument that doesn’t lean on “if Kubel has a breakout year due to Chase’s magical powers, he could be totally worth the money.”
Again, sorry about the tone. Just frustrated.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
RBI?
Yeah, that’s totally LaRoche’s doing.
He’d hit 25 HRs exactly each of the previous two years between Pittsburgh, Boston, and Atlanta. Not the haven parks Chase is made out to be. He also had what was a tie for the lowest OBP of his career.
He deserved a multi-year deal when he signed with us, and it’s not like he dramatically improved his value.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
its not like it hurt his value either
and do you think people used BABIP, ISO, wRC, and wOBA two years ago to measure how good a ballplayer was and what kind of deal he got? No, I guarantee you quite a few people now who use those were still looking at AVG and RBI
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
Two years ago
Weren’t the Dark Ages.
And even so, what difference does that make? Even if people used out-dated metrics two years ago, does that mean using them now is good?
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 7:05 PM EST up reply actions
I could make a comment about election results
or something, but I won’t…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
I was not suggesting
that is was, hence why I used “quite a few people.” And what difference does it make? Because your talking about two years when people were using outdated metrics and that’s how people determined the worth of the players and how good they were.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
I have no idea what you're trying to say
If you really think people used batting average and RBI two years ago, you’re sorely mistaken.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 7:18 PM EST up reply actions
actually
a guy like Jim Bowden is still using ERA WHIP OPSBIs today, so if he still thinks those are important today, I can only imagine what he used two years ago. And if a former GM of a Major League team uses those metrics, I’m pretty sure some people might have used batting average and RBI. So no, I am not sorely mistaken.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
You’re missing my point in that two years ago, I am sure that people weren’t using the metrics we are using today. Also keep in mind that Jim Bowden has made it up farther up the major league FO ladder than many of us ever will.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
I'm not really sure
which metrics weren’t being used then, besides some of the really high-level ones like SIERA maybe.
Goldschmidt happens.
c'mon
this isn’t a fair argument
most people don’t go up through the major league FO ladder because it’s easier to make money doing other things
there are also inherent biases structured in the FO ladder that will prevent many others from reaching the top as well (know any female GM’s? asian GM’s?)
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
There's Rich Cho
whose the GM for the Charlotte Bobcats and Kim Ng whose next in line for the Dodger’s GM spot. But I really wasn’t trying to argue how people move up. I was saying that some of the people way up aren’t always in touch with the metrics used today or make smart decisions in general, just take KT for example.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
by superwong18 on Dec 19, 2011 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
Kim Ng
Is not next in line for the Dodgers’ GM spot. She’s working for MLB now (i.e. not with any club, but with the league offices). She could get the job, but it’s not like she’s in the organization anymore and is some sort of heir apparent.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
well she made it up
to assistant GM, which ain’t too bad. But I digress, not really what I was trying to say either way.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
by superwong18 on Dec 19, 2011 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
i'm just trying to
make the rather specific point that
someone who is a GM isn’t automatically going to make better baseball decisions than someone who isn’t a GM
by blue bulldog on Dec 20, 2011 1:12 AM EST up reply actions
which is what I'm sort of saying
that if someone with as much baseball knowledge and background as a GM could make bad decisions, I am also inclined to think others with lesser knowledge could make just as bad decisons.
I hate "Red Sox Nation"
by superwong18 on Dec 20, 2011 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
that's not what i'm saying
i’m trying to not so subtly show you that i’m smarter than KT and therefore i wouldn’t make as many bad decisions as KT and therefore the fact that i disapprove of the Kubel signing means that the probability of the signing looking bad is higher than not
*tongue-in-cheek
**sorta
by blue bulldog on Dec 20, 2011 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Allow me to correct myself.
If you think people solely relied on metrics like BA and RBI to make decisions two years ago, you’re sorely mistaken.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions
Also
Jim Bowden currently works for ESPN. ESPN’s baseball fan base generally is pretty SABR-dim, so in working for ESPN, he’d probably have reason to lighten the SABR stuff for his readership.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
Any more than they used wins?
A guy who quite frankly has been one of the winners in Major League Baseball. I think he trails only Roy Halladay among major leaguers in total wins. He’s won 63 percent of his games since coming to the major leagues,
— Jerry DiPoto, July 2010, on Joe Saunders
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
I think when you're quoting "63 percent"
That’s a bit more than making some vaguely photogenic statement about “knowing how to win”.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 9:51 PM EST up reply actions
Dipoto's a pretty SABR-savvy guy
Agree with Phil on shoewizard’s theory, and I said the same thing at the time.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
So did his torn labrum.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
This.
You don’t have to be a “stats guy” to not want to ruin payroll flexibility in favor of a player who will be, at best, a minor upgrade over a young, cost-controlled fan favorite.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 6:26 PM EST up reply actions
How does this ruin our payroll flexibility
The tight wad doesn’t spend any money. The budget should be in the 80 range not the 60 range.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Dec 19, 2011 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
Based on what?
The payroll in the Colangelo era? Look how well that ended up in 2004.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
You referring to the World Series Championship?
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Dec 19, 2011 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
I'm referring
To the mountain of deferred salaries that it took to get that championship. I’d prefer sustainable success that’s achievable within our means.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 19, 2011 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
Figure that the amount they spent on this guy
is what they’re likely to have to spend to extend Montero, suddenly, its a $30,000,000 expense over two years on a ballclub that has indicated an allergy to spending money.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
This is
another good point. You’ve just raised the bar for everyone else on the roster.
Goldschmidt happens.
It throws the whole
“we can’t afford to spend a lot money” argument out the window, doesn’t it?
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 7:04 PM EST up reply actions
This is a big problem I have
When this franchise regularly pleads poverty, then does crap like sign redundant, aging MIF, then signs an unnecessary OF to a contract like this… Next time someone tries to convince me that Arizona just can’t make the big signing because of attendance or market or whatever, this contract will be exhibit #1 in my rebuttal.
by azshadowwalker on Dec 19, 2011 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
I don't get this
29 is aging? You’re talking like he’s an NFL RB here.
$7.5 mil per year for 2 years is reasonable for a guy who will hit around 25+ HR’s and drive in over 100 runs and hit .275 for you if he plays 140 games. Better value than you’d get giving that to Joe Saunders.
A guy who will hit around 25+ HR
How is this an expected outcome when he’s hit 33 in his last 242 games?!?! That pro-rates out to 38 HR in 280 games, or 19 home runs per 140 game year. Is Chase Field going to single-handedly add 6+ home runs to Kubel’s production each year? Seems bold to suggest that a change in ballpark can increase someone’s home run production by 33%.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
He was hurt last year
He averaged 23 HR’s and 143 games per season over his previous 3 seasons. I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to add 2+ HR’s to that at Chase.
And when he was on the field
He still didn’t hit that many home runs. Lingering effects of the foot injury? Well, that sounds like a convenient excuse to pick out his worst power-production year of recent memory and use only the sample from his 26-28 prime.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
It's the truth
And I know you know too much about the game to play this game where you put a season marred and shortened by injury above a solid 3 season stretch prior. You either put being champion of the debate club higher on your list of priorities, or reason.
Odd thing, injuries,
especially the way they increase with age…
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
Have you examined his foot recently?
Eric Byrnes started having hamstring issues that were affecting his play in his early 30s. The injuries kept coming back.
Assuming he’ll return to the time when all was great and his body was perfectly healthy is misguided. True talent level is probably somewhere between the last two or three years of productivity. I averaged his last two years of productivity, because they were the most recent ones and provide the most accurate picture for how skilled he is. Even if you use his 21 HR season from 2010, you need a 20% spike in HR due to park factors if you think he gets to 25+. That’s not minuscule.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
You don't think the D'backs doctors did?
Before signing him to that contract?
C’mon, both of you. The guy is 29 and it’s a 2 year deal. You are acting as if he’s 50 and it’s a 10 year deal.
But again, you go down this road and then advocate Beltran???
Look, the guy injured his knee early in his career but has been fine physically since then until he got hurt last June after hitting over .300 for April and May. I don’t believe his foot injury required surgery, just rest. He has not been a guy who’s always hurt.
Hopefully playing on the grass at Chase will be easier on his body.
by Fangdango on Dec 20, 2011 1:23 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, I advocate Beltran
Because his price is reduced relative to his skill because he’s injury prone and old. Kubel’s price clearly was not similarly reduced. And if his 110 wRC+ in 2011 was because of injury, what’s the reason for his 102 wRC+ in 2010 in which he was completely healthy?
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 1:26 AM EST up reply actions
What's his excuse?
For an above average wRC+?
I’m not sure what Beltran’s price is, since he’s not signed anywhere. But Krubel’s price is what it is because he’s a good player in his prime. And the price wasn’t that much and commitment too long compared with what others have been signing for. The Twins gave Willingham, a.k.a. Kelly Johnson, $21 mil for 3 years.
A 110 wRC+, as mentioned in a different comment
Is better than just 17 of 43 qualifying everyday corner outfielders from 2011. If you’re comfortable paying Kubel $15MM for his bat to be in the bottom third of corner outfielders and his glove to be one of the worst among big-league outfielders, that’s your business, but I’m in no way comfortable with that expenditure. Especially when the wRC+ from the previous year was even worse – by a significant margin – and would make him a disaster.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 1:51 AM EST up reply actions
It is above average
100 is average. Below that is below average. Above that is above average.
His bat is and will be second only to Upton’s on the D’backs. It will be first among left handed hitting D’backs, which was needed.
His “glove” is not one of the worst among big league outfielders, but you’re intent on wearing that one out anyway.
If he just averaged what he did his previous 3 years in Minny, he’ll be worth it, but he’s likely to be be better than that hitting at Chase rather than the big hefty bag in the twin cities.
Above-average for baseball
Includes bench players, replacement-level scum, and premium defensive positions. Kubel is a corner outfielder/DH that we hope will play everyday. You think his bat is good for that job description?
I’d be more than happy to bet his bat is not second-best on the club.
His glove is truly awful if UZR is to be believed, and merely bad if TZ is to be believed. Either way, he is better off at DH. We don’t have that luxury.
Three-year averages: .274/.342/.470 – a quality bat – with 20 HR per year and a 103:48 K:BB. Unfortunately, with his inability to hide in a DH slot, his defensive/positional value will be worse than it was in Minnesota, and the combined averages of 1.7 bWAR/1.2 fWAR will only go lower. Compared to what Parra can do for minimum salary in 2012 and arb1 salary in 2013, there’s not $7.5MM of value per year there. Not even close.
And if he instead does what he did his previous two years in Minny, it goes from “ugh, but palatable if you ignore the presence of Parra” to “excuse me while I vomit in my mouth.”
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 2:48 AM EST up reply actions
Also
What is wrong with Willingham? And what, for that matter, is wrong with Kelly Johnson (not that this is at all related, considering that KJ plays an up-the-middle position and Kubel couldn’t play an up-the-middle position to save his life)?
Outside of 29 plate appearances for Florida in 2004 and 28 plate appearances for Florida in 2005, Willingham hasn’t posted a season with a wRC+ lower than 117 in his entire career. He’s also a significantly less-awful defender (not good, but certainly better). Kubel is coming off of two straight seasons of sub-117 wRC+ figures, and by a wide margin. I’d take 3/21 for Willingham over 2/15 for Kubel any day of the week, especially since the right-handed hitting Willingham can platoon with Parra effectively.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 2:41 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think
the fact that the Dbacks signed him necessarily has anything to do with how healthy he is. It seems to be pretty common that, if the FO wants a guy, the doctors will sign off on him. (Not just in our case, but in everyone’s)
Goldschmidt happens.
Like Putz
when the Mets traded for him,
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
Check back on his age comps.
It’s really, really not pretty.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
Of course
I don’t think you’d find many people here who would have argued for giving that money to Joe Saunders. I daresay that isn’t the point at all.
I'd rather give it to Joe Saunders
At least you can easily trade a starting pitcher who gives you 200 innings per year with one year and $7.5MM left on his contract for prospect value, however minimal. Nobody will be buying Kubel as more than a DH a year from now, and a $7.5MM cost for a platoon DH (he has a significant LHP/RHP split) is a huge price tag when guys like Matsui and Bobby Abreu can do that for $5MM a year on a one-year deal.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:58 PM EST up reply actions
I'd rather give it to Hiroki Kuroda
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:17 AM EST up reply actions
But the point was
It isn’t like the option was “Give the money to Joe Saunders or Kubel”. If we had this kind of money, aren’t there better options? Why the heck are we paying Kubel $7.5 million in 2013??
I dunno
Not like we really had holes to plug.
Really, this would be best served by platooning Kubel with Goldschmidt. That’s a weird outcome for a best-case scenario after signing an everyday outfielder.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:24 AM EST up reply actions
My head hurts
I am leaving the thread now. I can’t think about this anymore.
But a super klutz
at first base is not pretty. OJT can get very ugly in MLB.
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
Yeah, but
Jason Kubel for $15 million would be a dumb signing for the Yankees, let alone a team with a $70 million payroll.
Even with an $80 million payroll, that’s still 9% of your total salary on a guy who isn’t a clear upgrade.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 6:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Oh my goodness
It is 9%? 9%????
What are we now, the Florida Marlins? How is spending this money on this kind of player okay?
Well, no. It's not 9%
because we don’t have an $80 million payroll.
It’s closer to $70 million, which would be 10.7%.
Yup, we just spent 10.7% of our 2012 payroll on Jason Kubel.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
And about 0.6% on Ian Kennedy or Daniel Hudson
So. Your point here is…
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 12:33 AM EST up reply actions
That Jason Kubel
shouldn’t be worth 11% of ANY NL team’s budget?
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
Good value means that bad value elsewhere is okay?
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
Especially given
that Parra is 0.7% of said budget or so?
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:40 AM EST up reply actions
I've yet to see an explanation of where it'd be better spent
In a market where Michael Cuddyer gets $10.5 million per year. It won’t be getting your Carlos Beltran, despite claims to the contrary…
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 12:49 AM EST up reply actions
Josh Willingham
If you a corner outfielder. Maybe someone who can actually platoon with Parra. Like… Josh Willingham!
Also, you’ll note that one of my biggest disagreements with the move is what it does for 2013. Maybe Kubel is the best option to improve the team with $7.5MM in 2012, and that’s fine. I’d be willing to take him on for one year and $7.5MM if that’s what the team thought was really the best option to use that money on to improve the club. But dedicating that money to him in 2013 as well is peculiar to me if you think he’s just the best use of that money in 2012.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
And yes
I’d take Willingham at 3/21 over Kubel at 2/15. Any day of the week.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
You think Kubel is worth 11% of the value of the team?
That is my point. And one of my biggest problems, too, is that $7.5 million in 2013.
Nor do I think Hudson is worth 0.7% of the value of the team
Free agents will always represent a bigger percentage of team value. It’s the way the system works. Kelly Johnson and Joe Saunders were the highest-paid D-backs in 2011, at not much smaller percentages, and no-one was making outraged posts about this fact.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 1:24 AM EST up reply actions
I agree that the percentage thing is weird
But I also think Kubel’s not worth his salary. :-)
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 1:26 AM EST up reply actions
Kevin Towers begs to differ
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 1:31 AM EST up reply actions
So tempted to start a fake account
:)
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 1:40 AM EST up reply actions
But still
You seriously are okay with spending $7.5 million on him? You think he justifies that kind of money?
I think
He gives the team a left-handed power threat, which we really didn’t have at all last year. Probably a slight overpay, but I’d rather we pay it to a 29-year old who will genuinely boost the offense, than spend it on more ‘veteran presence’.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 1:46 AM EST up reply actions
I would have liked Kuroda
But I don’t think we’re any worse without him.
Wear your own fur.
by Marc Fournier on Dec 20, 2011 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
Kuroda provided stability and guaranteed performance/innings
Over the kids on the farm. I wish Kubel provided some sort of security beyond having another fringe-average-caliber bat in case of an injury.
If you accept it for being fringe-average insurance for $15MM, it’s palatable.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
8M
including the option buyout. Don’t understand why KT didn’t go after the Mets Daniel Murphy, who would be a good LH bench bat, could play first and third, fulfilling KTs desire to acquire a less than stellar defender. I would think the Mets would have been interested in Parker, Cowgill, or even Blum as a throw in.
If done, no Overbay and Kudel, with around 9M to spend this year.
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
True, but more than enough saved to overpay
Saunders for one year, if necessary, And depending on the deal at least one of Parker or Cowgill or Cook might still be around to trade later. And if Cowgill is around it makes CY more expendable to trade for something really needed, not a 8M net zero..
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
You don't really
want Cowgill as a starting outfielder, especially in CF.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 21, 2011 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
Pollock
maybe, though I don’t think he’d be as good on either side of the ball.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 21, 2011 11:34 PM EST up reply actions
well
if the tight wad doesn’t spend any money…..how is that going to change in the future?
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
That's pretty close to the bottom line here
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
He's not one of my favorites...
no disrespect intended.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Dec 19, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
It was weak to begin with
At the plate. Parra doesn’t give you what you need offensively out of that position. Kubel will give them enough there defensively, combined with Parra coming in as a defensive replacement when playing with leads late in games.
good points
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
It's not that we're all so in love with Parra.
It’s that, at best, this is probably a lateral move for $7.5M/yr.
Like Dan, I wouldn’t have minded if we’d signed Beltran to replace Parra, because in that case, it’d clearly be an upgrade.
Goldschmidt happens.
Therein is the rub
If you think it’s a lateral move, it’s probably not so smart. But if it proves to be a real plus for the team, then it will be. I’m of the opinion it will be a serious benefit to the club. I’m aware most do not think so. I guess we’ll see.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Dec 19, 2011 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
There you go
’tis the season, apparently.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 6:40 PM EST up reply actions
When Jim Bowden thinks you made a poor move
Then you’ve got some ’splaining to do. Link
I shouldn’t be so harsh, but I just don’t get it. So much money for what looks like such marginal gains.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:41 PM EST reply actions
KT is always talking about a positive clubhouse environment
Well I can’t imagine Parra will be to happy about this. Hopefully he doesn’t demand a trade.
If he’s not traded this will cost him millions in arbitration.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Am I stupid
To think this move opens the door to trade CY and his incessant pop-flys and move Parra to Center? How many games has GP played at center?
But if you trade CY
What do you trade him for? If it’s not someone who’s better than Kuroda, then you just downgraded two, maybe three positions by putting Kubel in LF over Parra and Parra in CF over Young. If Kuroda was a possibility, then that’s three downgraded positions. If Kuroda wasn’t a possibility, then is the guy we get for CY that much of an upgrade on our prospects?
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know
But KT made it sound as though the Kuroda ship had sailed so he made this move instead.
by PR151 on Dec 19, 2011 7:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Life teaches us
that making hasty decisions on the rebound is not a good idea…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
That's why you never
Get your hair cut after a breakup.
I might have to start calling Kubel Breakup Hair.
You know what I don’t get? He never wears a shirt; he never wears shoes: Why hasn’t he died from lack of service?
trade him
for middle infield prospects
too bad the Nats apparently don’t want a CF anymore :(
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
And that suddenly goes massively against our win-now mentality, right?
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
eh
i’m fine with that.
you’re essentially trading CY/Parra for Parra/Kubel + infield prospects. it only marginally hurts out win-now prospects (we’re talking mere percentage point decreases in probability of making the playoffs this season) and increased percentage to make playoffs between 2013-2016
i dunno. probably depends a lot on the prospects we get back….
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
Sure
But I basically was saying that I don’t think KT will do it.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
Because apparently we are now in “Win Now” mode. Something I still don’t quite understand.
The rest of the division is pretty weak
I get it. I just would rather us spend another $5.5MM per year for Beltran than what we just gave Kubel.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
This.
If you’re gonna go for it, go all in, like the Brewers last year.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
But see
That would actually be a real upgrade. And would therefore make sense.
stop
this comment makes me sad
because we post this on 75% of KT’s non-bullpen moves :(
by blue bulldog on Dec 20, 2011 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
I see no reason to trade CY
If they are planning on signing Kubel to trade CY I will be very unhappy about that.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Dec 19, 2011 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, the early part of this thread
involved discussion of moving CY, although its not clear that that would be a great move, either.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe KT will take a page from the Suns playbook
And give somebody Bauer to take Kubel’s contract off of our hands next year.
Don't even joke, man.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
And make us throw in the fresh guacamole
and chips.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 7:05 PM EST up reply actions
If we're in win now mode
we might as well go and get another starter. Maybe trade Parra and Miley for Danks.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Okay, how about
CY and J-Up for Kemp?
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 7:03 PM EST up reply actions
Kenny Williams is crazy
He’ll do it! DON’T LOOK HIM IN THE EYES
Where have you gone, Greg Colbrunn?
So, the question boils down to
is this deal a signal that the Diamondbacks’ Front Office is going to open the purse for other deals and extensions? That’s kind of what I’m taking away from this.
Is it mid-February yet?
It's interesting
because last year we were in rebuilding mode and yet they were still eyeing Konerko. They said they would be willing to spend money for the right player, but Kubel is not what I would consider the “right” player..so..
Yu Darvish..what’s up?
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
I can't believe this thread is still going strong
almost eight hours into the announcement. One would think the ’Backs had just acquired A-Rod.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 7:20 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I think Mrs. Parra
Hijacked Dan’s and ’skins accounts…
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 7:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And
70% of everyone else’s, too?
It’s not that I’m so concerned with replacing Parra. It’s that I’m concerned with replacing Parra with this scrub.
Goldschmidt happens.
Sigh
Career OPS+ 112 over 753 games != “scrub”
These outlandish and obviously invalid claims only hurt your and Dan’s case, you know that, right?
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He's a scrub of an everyday player.
Just 17 of 43 qualifying everyday corner outfielders in 2011 had lower wRC+ totals than Jason Kubel. Offense is supposed to be Kubel’s strength, especially with how poor his defensive metrics are. When you’re in the bottom half of everyday players at the thing you’re supposed to be good at, “scrub” is a fair statement if your basis of comparison is a quality everyday outfielder. Which it should be, since we just paid Kubel like an everyday outfielder. Why compare him to league-average when we’re not paying him to be league-average?
Phil and I both realize that Kubel belongs on a major league roster. What we don’t believe is that he should be an everyday player, and that’s a logical basis of comparison here. Nobody who is a professional baseball player is a scrub compared to the average human being, but yet you have no qualms calling out people like Alex Rios and Vernon Wells as examples of someone who is “terrible” above. Why? Because your basis of comparison is the average MLB player. If that’s the basis of comparison you want to use, that’s fine, but we’re using a higher standard since the D-backs just made Kubel one of the highest-paid players on the team. There’s nothing outlandish and obviously invalid about that.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
Sigh
6.5 bWAR and 4.0 fWAR over the past 6 seasons ABSOLUTELY screams “scrub”.
Why do you keep changing the subject back to offense alone? Because that’s the only possible way this makes any semblance of sense?
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
0.0 WAR = scrub
1+ WAR per season – including time on the DL – is worth, what, 5 million plus, even on the most conservative estimate.
Of course this was an offense-driven move.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 11:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Arizona wants to win 90 games a year to make the playoff
Aggressive estimates suggest that a replacement-level team wins about 55 games a year. Thus, with its $70MM payroll, Arizona needs to generate 35 wins above replacement-level team… again, a super-conservative estimate.
Additionally, we have 25 roster spots to get 35 wins. Obviously, you expect more wins from certain roster spots than others, like everyday player roster spots.
We can’t afford to pay $7.5MM for a sub-two-win player at an everyday position. Arizona knows this, and Arizona expects him to generate more than two wins. That’s the expectation I don’t quite agree with.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
Um...
at this point, you might be giving KT too much credit.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:25 AM EST up reply actions
i've been trying
to explain this to Dan for the past three months…..
by blue bulldog on Dec 20, 2011 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
Okay,
so maybe “scrub” is an exaggeration, though I still maintain that Kubel’s value will be even lower in AZ because we can’t hide his defense by playing him at DH — even if he produces offensively at the same rate. You’d be hard-pressed to make the argument that 0.7 WAR necessarily means he’s “not a scrub”.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
i'm with
Dan and ’skins on this
i think you need to have higher standards
112 OPS+ doesn’t mean anything to me from an offensive standpoint. i see that and i just think decent role player.
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
It'd be fine if he were capable defensively.
But for some reason the fact that he isn’t is worth ignoring.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
So much hyperbole
He is “capable” defensively and he is no “scrub”.
All over the top rhetoric based mostly on comparisons defensively to gold gloves or exceptional “metrics”.
He won’t shine on defense, but he is a capable LF, and if he’s not, then I guess they shouldn’t have a problem moving the “excellent” defensive Upton over to LF and they can hide Krubel in RF, right? Since J-up is brilliant defensively, why not start featuring him in LF anyway?
RF is more important than LF.
I doubt even homer MN fans would call Kubel a “capable LF”.
Just because a dude is awesome at playing SS doesn’t mean you’d move him to 3B for the helluvit.
Goldschmidt happens.
Again
The numbers don’t bear out your claims at all. This isn’t hyperbole. His -17.0 UZR/150 as an outfielder is utterly atrocious, and while his -9 career TZ is better, both of those figures are from when he had a DH spot to give his legs days off. He doesn’t have that luxury in Arizona, and I see no reason why his glove will be any better with the move, particularly given that enormous fly-ball tendencies of the D-backs pitching staff. He’ll be running a ton more than he did in Minnesota, both with increased balls hit towards him per inning and a massive spike in innings out in left field, and expecting his defensive metrics to go anywhere but south is mystifying.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 2:51 AM EST up reply actions
And your Upton LF/RF point makes no sense
They’re the same damn position. What are you trying to prove with this? You can’t “hide” a player at either spot, they’re equally important and require the same general defensive skill. LF isn’t any more prevalent or necessary than RF.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 2:53 AM EST up reply actions
I was
pretty vocal against this to for awhile
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
we actually just won the bid on Darvish.
go us.
"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd
The mystery team
It’s allllllllllways the mystery team.
The last two years, at least.
Where have you gone, Greg Colbrunn?
wait....what!?!?!?!
"I could have been king, but in my own way I am king. Hail to the king baby." Ash from Army of Darkness
Joke.
(Not that I totally ran to Twitter immediately to check after I read that comment or anything)
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:18 AM EST up reply actions
dude
i kept refreshing MLBTR after this comment as well
by blue bulldog on Dec 20, 2011 1:16 AM EST up reply actions
i'm sorry for misleading all of you.
"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd
Am I the only one who likes this signing?
"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd
I like it
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Dec 19, 2011 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
Judgement on this signing
I am going to reserve final judgement on the signing until Spring Training, I still think this is a precursor to another move, because otherwise this does not make too much sense. I still think KT has something up his sleeve, and it may be major.. Kubel would be an upgrade to our lineup… just where is the problem…
Professional Lurker... if you see this, there may be a problem..
The general consensus
has been that yes, another deal is in the offing, and that he’d make a fine DH for the D’Backs…if we were in the AL. A couple of people suggest that his defense isn’t that bad, much like Phoenix in late July isn’t all that bad.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
How else we could have spent the money
$7.5M Kubel
$5.5M Hill
$2M Bloomquist
$1.5M McDonald
____
$16.5M
Jimmy Rollins 3 years/ $33M ($11M per)
Jose Reyes 6 years/$106M ($18M per)
In his three years Rollins costs us exactly what those above cost in two. Reyes is a much bigger risk, but would only cost us an additional $1.5M in the next two years. Keeping our current OF intact, plugging Rollins or Reyes in at SS, shifting Drew over to 3B and Roberts to 2B… that’s a real MLB offense and a significant offensive and defensive upgrade.
What we’ve just done for the same price? Hard to tell… but it’s certainly no major upgrade.
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
That Jose Reyes contract could be "Barry Zito" bad in three years.
I’m not crazy about Rollins and I think he took a bit of a decent to stay in Philly.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
*discount
not decent lol
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
While Reyes' contract is undoubtedly risky, I think that is being overblown
Could Reyes implode because of health issues? Sure. But, he’s also a 28 year old who has already stacked up nearly 30 WAR with four seasons of 5+ WAR. That’s an impressive resume.
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
This
is assuming that either player would have wanted to play for us for the same amount of money.
Tomorrow is another day.
That's one way to advance a discussion.
Fine… if you want to add a few million on that, do so… but how about dealing with the substance of the position.
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
It's hard
to take the substance when the very premise is flawed. We shouldn’t assume that the players were actually available to AZ, nor that the front office wanted them.
Tomorrow is another day.
I made the same point.
Pretty sure we would’ve had to outbid Philly by plenty to sign Rollins.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:26 AM EST up reply actions
Definitely
it’s not to say that players don’t want to come to Phoenix, but when you’re competing with Miami (no state income tax and considered a nice place to play if you’re a rich 20/30 something) and Philadelphia (primed to continue to win, and where the player has already been playing), it’s a tough sell.
Tomorrow is another day.
I put more stock in this argument
in Rollins’ case than Reyes’. If you care at all about winning, Miami is less attractive than Phoenix.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:41 AM EST up reply actions
There are worst fates for ballplayers
than playing for Gibby’s Diamondbacks…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
Fun fact:
In reference to Dan’s prior mention of Carlos Beltran, I just saw that Beltran’s expected contract is now just 2 years, $24 million.
Goldschmidt happens.
Amusing
Coming from a man who’s writing off Kubel as a “scrub” because he’s about to turn 30.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
You really consider
Kubel of the career 6.4 WAR and Beltran of the career 60.8 WAR comparable?
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
Sure,
at 10:1
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
Hey, apparently
Baseball players implode at age 30, or so I’m told… I’m just repeating it.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 11:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
They start their decline phase around that time
Kubel doesn’t have much freedom to decline significantly. Beltran, who was a superstar, had flexibility to do that, and has declined significantly since his prime. Doesn’t mean he still isn’t a stud.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
This
is a better argument FOR the deal, than against it IMO
Do tell me how in the world that is the case.
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
Have you ever heard the expression
“Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket”? How would signing a player like Jose Reyes (who has a pretty good chance of being an absolute bust) to that much money be a good idea for a low-budget team like the Dbacks? Especially considering we’re not even sure we need a SS. Drew is expected to come back 100 percent.
by BigLeagueAZ on Dec 19, 2011 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
Then how about Rollins
One of the safer bets to give you 3-4 wins per year around, who got $11MM per year for three years.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
We would've had
to outbid Philly by a bit to get him to come here.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
and how much would that have been?
Another year locked in at $8M? Still much better.
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
I'd be fine with that.
Dude’s good. Moves Drew to 2B in the short-term, gives us time to develop Owings slowly.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:07 PM EST up reply actions
I would, too.
Just saying he wasn’t gonna sign with the Dbacks for $11MM per.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough.
Give him the combined $14.8MM we’re giving Kubel, Hill, and Bloomquist…
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
Have you ever heard the expression
“Quality over quantity”?
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
Drew is expected to come back 100 percent?
When/by whom?
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:28 AM EST up reply actions
I'd take the Rollins deal
I’d honestly rather have what we got than the Reyes deal.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
Wow 700+ comments
I don’t have much to add, seeing as how every side of this deal has been thoroughly analyzed, so I’m just going to wait a couple of weeks for the corresponding moves to take place. Then I will most likely jump aboard the rage train with the rest of the crew.
I like it.
Although it seems like every is pointing to this putting Parra on the bench or getting traded. If anyone is going to get traded from this, I think it’s CY. I wouldn’t mind getting something good for CY and having Parra shift to CF. The problem there would be that our backup OF is Willie, and Kubel will need some breaks more often than the others. Which is why NO ONE is getting traded. We will have 4 solid OFs, and Kubel will fill in at 1st base every now and then. The more I think about this trade, the more I’m liking it.
The only people talking about Kubel at 1B
are outsiders. Every source from the org has said he’ll play LF, and he’s never played 1B before.
Goldschmidt happens.
Yeah I know
he’s never played, but it could happen. Now that I realize we resigned Overbay, I’m not considering this anymore. I think it would have been a good idea though. Just to try it out at least.
Well
maybe not the 1B thing. I didn’t know that we signed Overbay to a 1yr deal. I figured he wasn’t happy enough with being a backup on a contender. Oh well.
For a million a year in this economy
he’d be happy to run bats.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
That's why I didn't understand
why he wasn’t immediately open to a deal in the first place. The guy was destined to wash his car for the rest of the season last year. There was one team that would have taken him, and they did.
Braves fan here
Just wanted to ask some DBacks fan a question. Right now you guys currently have an extra quality bat for your outfield. Sooo just curious as to what you guys think it would take to get Justin Upton?
Crazy right. Well the reason I’m thinking it could work for both sides is that the Braves have the prospect depth to help you guys win next year but also for years to come. So I’ve tried to come up with a list of players that might be a fair deal. I’m more interested in who you guys would want in a deal for Upton if it were to ever happen.
Brandon Beachy
Arodys Vizcaino
Andrelton Simmons
J.J. Hoover
Joey Terdoslavich
Matt Lipka
Beachy helps you guys fill out your rotation this year. He still has 5 years of team control left.
Vizcaino is someone who could be in the bigs this year or next as a TOR starter.
Simmons is someone who would most likely definitely be ready in 2013 as your everyday SS. With Drew possibly leaving he’d be ready just in time.
Hoover is someone who could be a mid rotation starter or a back of the BP arm.
Lipka and J-Terd are a couple of solid hitting prospects who could be ready in a few years.
=========
Open to hearing you guys thoughts.
No way.
We’d have a HUGE hole in the lineup AND in RF and we’re in win now mode.
Goldschmidt happens.
Honestly,
I think J-Up is untouchable at this point. He was a serious MVP candidate last year, and I don’t see him regressing. CY on the other hand……..
I understand
just trying to hear the other side. So with that knowledge what do you think it would take to get him
by drumzalicious on Dec 19, 2011 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
100..........
billion………..dollars.
by BigLeagueAZ on Dec 19, 2011 9:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
HELL NO!
We have enough pitching prospects. No way we’re giving up our boy.
Have you seen our system?
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
to be honest
that was the one thing that was funny to me. Both our systems seem the same. Stacked with pitching.
by drumzalicious on Dec 19, 2011 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
Yea it's filled up for awhile
Kennedy-2016
Hudson-2017
Cahill-2017
Collmenter-2018
Skaggs and Bauer haven’t even reached the bigs.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Oh my.
Thank you so much for this post. :)
crazy good
The only thing I saw that we really had prospect depth where you might need is the infield. Like we have Simmons and Pastornicky. Salcedo is someone who still hasn’t been all that impressive. J-Terd has monster power in his first year and could be good at 1B. Thats about it.
by drumzalicious on Dec 19, 2011 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
I think Drew might be available
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 9:44 PM EST up reply actions
Selling Drew now at a all time low would be insane
what would we get for him?
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
I don't make the rules
I don’t write the checks. It’s someone else’s problem.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 9:48 PM EST up reply actions
just a discussion...
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
What about...wait for it...
instead of Justin Upton, we trade you… JASON KUBEL!?
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
lol no thanks. Too expensive. We’re the new cheap team in the NL East since the Marlins have become the Yankess of the south.
by drumzalicious on Dec 19, 2011 11:14 PM EST up reply actions
I thought Bryce Harper
said the Nats are gonna be the new Yankees?
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 11:15 PM EST up reply actions
He's Bryce Harper.
I’m 100 percent sure he was talking out his ass
"When Life gives you Lemons give the lemons BACK!"
by BattleMoses on Dec 19, 2011 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
Dammit, Niiko.
Sarchasm.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 11:17 PM EST up reply actions
Can i get a rope plz?
"When Life gives you Lemons give the lemons BACK!"
by BattleMoses on Dec 19, 2011 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
SS and C are the black holes in our system.
but you could say that about a lot of systems.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
I thought Montero was the guy for you all for a while?
by drumzalicious on Dec 19, 2011 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
He's only signed through 2012
They’re trying to extend him. Seems pretty 50/50 to me.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Terdoslavich
Is pretty underwhelming. Super old and a 1B. I’ll pass, especially if we’re trying to build a deal for someone like Upton.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 9:48 PM EST up reply actions
Also I might add
that not including Julio Teheran in a deal for one of the best outfielders in baseball is a tad unrealistic.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
No no no no no
And don’t get me wrong, I love some of those guys. Andrelton Simmons is awesome – one of my favorite prospects around, truly. He would be plenty good as a #2 prospect in an Upton trade IMO. I really love him. Beachy is solid, probably a fourth piece in a package. Vizcaino’s a great arm, but could be a reliever. But the last three guys are trash compared to the quality of prospects it would take in a package to get Upton – nothing personal, it’s just that Upton is that freaking good and cost-controlled, and we can afford to ask for the moon even if it’s totally unwarranted. We would need five elite prospects, and probably Teheran to headline the deal. Something like Teheran, Simmons, Vizcaino, Beachy, Salcedo. It’s a crazy, stupid trade for Atlanta to do, but Upton’s that awesome.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 9:47 PM EST up reply actions
so much pitching
we’re just not a good fit with the Braves system
also, Beachy is damn good, and people would have realized that if they paid attention to Southern League strikeout rates at all
i actually think at this point, Beachy’s EV is probably higher than SImmons, and arguably even higher than Teheran’s
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
EV?
Effort Value
"When Life gives you Lemons give the lemons BACK!"
by BattleMoses on Dec 19, 2011 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
wasn't sure if this was serious
but i meant EV as in “expected value”
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 11:17 PM EST up reply actions
Simmons' plus-plus glove at SS
Begs to differ and all. :-)
I love Andrelton Simmons.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
After a few comments
Looks a like a more appropriate deal would be
Beachy
Vizcaino
Simmons
Bethancourt
Salcedo
Lipka
Hoover
by drumzalicious on Dec 19, 2011 9:52 PM EST up reply actions
I think just giving us
Five “Pick any prospect you want” cards, valid any time over the next decade, would be about a fair swap. :)
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 19, 2011 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
to be honest I’d give up Freeman in a deal for him. Would love to have Upton.
by drumzalicious on Dec 19, 2011 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
Wouldn't really want Freeman
Not huge upside, we have Goldschmidt in place and Kubel could probably use some PAs there on occasion.
Need a Teheran in here and some star bat upside at positions we don’t have set in the big-leagues.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
BTW Guys
pretty sure we all know this deal would never happen but being a Braves fan we’ve had a pretty dead offseason just having some fun. Nothing serious here.
by drumzalicious on Dec 19, 2011 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
We know
but we had a crazy A’s fan on here last week offering one-sided ludicrous trades from the A’s perspective.
Maybe that’s why we come off a bit harsh. Plus it’s JUP!
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Maddox, Glavine, and Smoltz
In their primes.
by The so-called Beautiful on Dec 19, 2011 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
Really off topic
but all you people who kept telling me to get Google Chrome were right. I’ve only had it for like an hour and I can’t believe I ever used IE
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 9:56 PM EST reply actions
Yeah, the lesson here is
listen to (some) of us.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
I know, I know
One day I will learn to listen to my elders and my betters
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know about your 'betters'
but in many cases, definitely elders…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
I'm just
speaking about life in general. Trust me, I know I’m better than all you guys!*
*This is a complete joke. Do not take it seriously whatsoever
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not on the Chrome bandwagon (still sticking with good ‘ol Firefox) but how does anyone under the age of, oh, I’ll be generous and say 83, still use IE in 2011?
by The so-called Beautiful on Dec 19, 2011 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
Because
a lot of government websites require IE, for one?
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
Cause
I’m lazy and didn’t want to bother with installing it?
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
Oh dear
Our corporate makes us use IE at work. It is a nightmare. I end up cursing at the computers a few times a day. And then feel so happy to come home to an IE-free apartment.
I'm actually
using IE as we speak.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
Our corporate
makes us use IE as well. But that didn’t stop me from installing Firefox and using it when I am not on corporate web sites.
by Craig from Az on Dec 20, 2011 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
Unfortunately
I am not allowed to install anything. Though I have thought about it, for sure.
Do we give up a draft pick for Kubel?
if so FU Kevin Towers.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Is this true?
Because if it is, I just went from disliking this trade to despising it
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think it was a trade
I think it was a straight up signing.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
But
I think that’s the question. Don’t we have to give up a draft pick if Kubel is a type A/B free agent?
by Craig from Az on Dec 19, 2011 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
He's a type B,
the Twins get a between round pick, no give up.
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
Bad me
I meant signing. Point still stands, however
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
There are some plusses
to this deal, but I’m loathe to give up Parra as the starting left fielder.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
There
are plusses, but I don’t think they are enough to make this a good deal
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
ot a Type A
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
Blah
Type fail. Almost assuredly not a Type A, right? Doubt we give up picks.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
AHHH!! we outbidded a team for a guy we don't need.
The Reds had some interest in Jason Kubel before he agreed to a two-year, $15MM deal with the Diamondbacks. “The level money-wise, we weren’t going to get to that level,” Jocketty said.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
That crashing noise
you hear is me pounding my head against the table
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
Was that a loud "thunk" sound?
I think I heard it…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
that was it
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
Followed by
splattt?
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
Not yet
still working on that. It’s not a very hard table
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
Happy denting.
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
I guess its like the joy one feels
when one stops banging one’s head against a table.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
And with the 1M buyout
It’s only 8M (or 32 Bentleys) per for two.
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
Mine is a bargain
its vintage, but it has air conditioning…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
only thing i can fathom
is that you guys have a deal for Young somewhere to some team.
by drumzalicious on Dec 19, 2011 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
Not much would surprise me at this point.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Meanwhile, Dan O'Dowd is trying to find suitors for Seth Smith.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
Dan O'Dowd
he was great in Culture Club.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
Very wise of Walt.
We also outbid the Giants for Willie Bloomquist.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
Actually the reports were that the giants gave him a betteroffer
"When Life gives you Lemons give the lemons BACK!"
by BattleMoses on Dec 19, 2011 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
Really?
I guess I feel a little better about that, then. I guess.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 10:47 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
He wanted to continue to inflict his inability to hit leadoff on us for another couple seasons
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 19, 2011 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
that news
made me feel worse
i don’t think the Giants have signed a single free agent in the past two or three years that i thought was a steal for them….they only have gotten stolen from
by blue bulldog on Dec 19, 2011 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmm.
True, I suppose. Kinda like how, if an OF is good at getting assists, it’s not necessarily a good thing when opposing baserunners STOP running on their arm.
Goldschmidt happens.
well
at least in your example, presumably the end expected value at the Nash Equilibrium point is better for the team with the good OF arms, as opposed to the team with the bad OF arms
by blue bulldog on Dec 20, 2011 1:23 AM EST up reply actions
Is that true?
For real? If so, I feel a little better.
At least it makes me like Bloomquist a little
Which I guess helps. A little.
Another fun fact
This gives us 14 position players under contract, if you assume the pre-arb Goldschmidt and Parra have big-league roster spots (don’t think Parra has options, could be wrong; Goldschmidt has options, but are we really going to demote him?).
OF: Upton, Young, Kubel, Parra.
IF: Goldschmidt, Hill, Drew, Roberts
C: Montero
Bench: McDonald, Bloomquist, Overbay, Blanco, Blum.
So, if Drew is healthy for Opening Day, we’ll either have to demote someone – Parra and Goldschmidt being the only minimum-salary guys here – or cut someone on a guaranteed contract. Methinks Geoff Blum had better hope that Drew isn’t ready for Opening Day.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2011 11:52 PM EST reply actions
Or
a multiplayer deal…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 19, 2011 11:54 PM EST up reply actions
KT will probably
re-sign Mora… you know, so we can have some good Spring Training competition. That’s worth a couple mill, right?
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
Everyone keeps talking about getting rid of Blum.
Given that Blum and KT are BFFs, I don’t understand how everyone thinks this is such a shoe-in, especially given KT’s loyalty towards over-the-hill veterans that are “his guys”. (David Wells, Xavier Nady come to mind)
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 19, 2011 11:57 PM EST up reply actions
Who else is it gonna be?
McDonald and Bloomquist got two-year deals. Overbay was just signed for $1MM and is a legitimate backup 1B. I guess it could be Overbay, but would you really rather have Blum than Overbay given Blum’s 2011 campaign?
God forbid they send down Goldschmidt.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
I'm less concerned with
“would you really rather” than “what do you think KT will do?”.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
He just gave Overbay that money though
And he had to have an idea that he would look for another piece. You partially-guarantee Overbay’s deal if you know you’re going to go after another bat.
Man, and 24 hours ago I thought this was going to be the perfect off-season… all we needed was Kuroda. :-P
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
Choosing Kuroda over Kubel
would’ve been much better. :(
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
There's no real reason to suggest
Kuroda was a choice. But patience was, and I’d have probably chosen it.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:13 AM EST up reply actions
I'm so baffled by this
We gave up waiting for Kuroda, and so immediately turned around and paid too much for an average LF?
Yep.
That’s about it.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
Now you're just trying to stir the pot
suggesting Goldie has a chance of going down. We can rehash the insanity of signing both McDonald and Bloomquist for two years. That was a fun discussion too though lopsided it was. One of the negatives to Kubel (and I like the deal as you know) is that it doesn’t really give Pollock or Eaton a chance to make the team. Unless, god forbid, Pollock beats out CY.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Dec 20, 2011 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
Stir the pot?
I’m trying to lay out all of the options. You either cut someone – not going to be Blanco, the only backup C, not going to be a two-year deal guy – or you send someone down. I think Parra’s out of options, so it’s either cut Overbay, cut Blum, or send down Goldschmidt. Three options, that’s it.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
I was just being tongue in cheek
it’s simply either Blum or McDonald in my opinion. And they’ll wait until late in ST to see if anyone goes on the DL.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Dec 20, 2011 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
I see zero chance McDonald goes.
Maybe that’s just me though. I see him as too necessary for Cahill.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:13 AM EST up reply actions
I see zero chance I WANT McDonald to go.
But who knows what goes on in KT’s mind?
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:20 AM EST up reply actions
You don't give two years to guys you'd be willing to cut after ST.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
Pretty sure
if McDonald hit .110 over the first 2 months and didn’t LOOK good defensively, it’d be a possibility.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:24 AM EST up reply actions
remember
when you said McDonald would be there for all of Cahill’s starts?
:(
by blue bulldog on Dec 20, 2011 1:20 AM EST up reply actions
That was me. :-(
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 1:29 AM EST up reply actions
Barring trade.
And there’s no reason why we couldn’t cut McDonald or Bloomquist midseason, 2 years or not.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:11 AM EST up reply actions
I think another trade is a serious possibility
And really, it could be anybody.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
Probably anybody but Upton.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
Any position player. :-P
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
Are we assuming
Drew doesn’t start the year on the DL?
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
Yep.
If he starts hurt, there’s just enough guys. When he comes back, someone will have to go.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:13 AM EST up reply actions
Barring another injury.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:13 AM EST up reply actions
Anyone have a recent Drew update?
How he’s looking? Is he out of the cast yet?
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Dec 20, 2011 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
nope, my dad just saw him at the Toyota dealership in Peoria...
He asked if he would be ready for opening day, and he said yes… but my dad thinks its not looking good as he still was wearing the brace.. But who knows, he still has a few months to rehab…
Maybe he was buying a car for a niece or something?
"When Life gives you Lemons give the lemons BACK!"
No, no, no, no
Please. No Blum at 1B. I’ll take Overbay and his $1 million, thanks.
So, if Drew is healthy for Opening Day…
The Kubel acquisition may be another clue that KT isnt confident about Drew’s return. First, the early winter priority to secure two “backup” shortstops. Now, adding theoretical left handed pop elsewhere on the diamond, at a marginal cost (over Parra) in excess of $10M and defense.
Would you incur those costs to accumulate skills Drew posesses if you felt he was a reasonable bet to bounce back?
by Diamondhacks on Dec 20, 2011 12:31 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:40 AM EST up reply actions
Excellent point.
That may be the missing link — KT IS rather conservative as a GM, after all.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:43 AM EST up reply actions
This is the first theory
that makes ANY sense.
Therefore it must be incorrect ;-)
by Craig from Az on Dec 20, 2011 9:46 AM EST up reply actions
I think
The need to DFA Blum was actually mentioned about 10 hours ago.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
Amid 1000 comments
I lost track. :-)
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:40 AM EST up reply actions
For December 19 this was an awesome baseball day!!
Even though most hate the signing, for the dead of the off season, this was some really fun debate to engage in and read on December 19. I can’t wait to see how it turns out. I think all our OFs will get plenty of playing time, and one injury changes the whole discussion. Plus we have some better PH options later in games. Let’s hope that both Kubel and Parra have excellent seasons and we win another division crown partially due to positive contributions from our entire outfield.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Dec 19, 2011 11:55 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
You're right.
One thing is undeniable. The response to this move shows just how much we’re all licking our chops for 2012 to get underway. March can’t come soon enough.
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
Kubel passed physical
Deal official.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:26 AM EST reply actions
Kubel passed physical
Deal official.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 12:26 AM EST reply actions
No turning back now.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 20, 2011 12:30 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
we should get the suns training staff to help out a bit.
if grant hill suddenly got cured of his ailments, he can help Kubel/Drew/anyone else who has injuries.
"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd
Is this just really expensive insurance?
If we’re in Win Now Mode, what is the one thing that could derail the season? Losing one of our big bats would be a crushing blow, as it was to SF last year. Signing Kubel, while crowding the OF, does provide some insurance against the loss of a 3, 4, 5 bat like Miggy, Upton or Goldie.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Dec 20, 2011 12:41 AM EST reply actions
I like this move for the Dbacks. Actually have the Dbacks as the NL team in the WS if the season started today.
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
Man, you're thinking in AL terms.
Goldschmidt happens.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 20, 2011 12:47 AM EST up reply actions
Next year you will have to for a lot of games too!
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
yea not 2012
next year they’ll only play 15 versus the AL.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
Yeah, that’s what I meant!
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
I love that optimism, wish i could share it
"I could have been king, but in my own way I am king. Hail to the king baby." Ash from Army of Darkness
What weakness do you see that maybe I’m missing?
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
Infield
If Drew < 100%, you have Roberts, Bloomquist, Hill (who knows what we get here), and Goldie (like to think he will be GREAT, but he could be Mark Reynolds at 1B).
by Craig from Az on Dec 20, 2011 9:49 AM EST up reply actions
Perhaps a Parra for infielder swap?
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
David Freese?
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
A world series birth would make me feel better about this trade.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
I'll have a word with Mrs. SnakePit
We’d better get cracking on tha…
Oh… I think you meant “berth”. :)
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 1:39 AM EST up reply actions
The Cahill?
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
ahhhhhh signing
I’m sober I swear!
I like the Cahill trade.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
As do I. I don’t think the Kubel signing is bad, maybe you can move Parra for an extra piece?
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
But why would you
When we’re trying to build around pitching?
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
I think the plan is to try to make it
look like this is a serious attempt to get the brass ring now.
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
Anyone hear of any rumors of a trade after this?
I just cant imagine this happening without something else waiting in the wings
"I could have been king, but in my own way I am king. Hail to the king baby." Ash from Army of Darkness
Over 1,100 comments
I’m not sure we’ve had so many on any move, ever. Guess we’ll see how it all works out, both down the line and in 2012.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
I don't really think this is the case,
but, should there be no trades or somesuch, and it should turn out that KT was lying about immediately trying to win in 2012, and should it turn out that KT included the extra year in the expectation that we’d want more LH power in case Drew isn’t immediately okay, and that we’d be using a DH quite a bit more often in 2013, I, um… well, wouldn’t hate this signing quite as much.
Goldschmidt happens.
Or they can't work out a deal with Montero
but in that case 15 million dollars would be pretty useful.
Update:11.07 PM….. this signing still doesn’t make sense.
"Clearly the Brewers didn't realize that going into Beast Mode raised their testosterone levels."
by tcyoung
I just can't believe
that the D’backs could not pick up a left handed hitter with power, cheaper. Unless Kendrick is more amendable to loosening up the wallet, this deal in effect handicaps their ability to keep the nucleus of the defense together (in other words, keep Montero). So, assuming that the D’Backs haven’t completely changed their penurious fiscal policy, some other deals have to be in the offing that would include letting core players go.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 20, 2011 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
Kubel Komps
he…he…see what I did there ?
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/isSh3
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1972 to 2011, From Age 21 to 30, Bats LH, Played 40% of games at LF or RF, (requiring onbase_plus_slugging_plus>=100, onbase_plus_slugging_plus<=117, SB<=30, runs_fielding<=10, BB>.42*SO and At least 2000 plate appearances), sorted by greatest WAR Position Players
Rk Player WAR/pos OPS+ SB Rfield BB SO PA HR GDP BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Ben Grieve 6.7 113 24 -75 466 784 3743 118 103 .269 .367 .442 .809
2 Troy OLeary 6.7 100 12 9 261 510 3534 106 85 .280 .335 .460 .795
3 Jason Kubel 6.4 112 10 -10 250 532 2846 104 71 .271 .335 .459 .794
4 Mel Hall 5.6 108 27 -43 236 514 3914 118 56 .278 .321 .441 .762
5 Jay Gibbons 4.3 101 2 0 215 414 3035 121 71 .260 .314 .453 .768
6 Phil Plantier 1.9 103 13 -23 237 476 2165 91 37 .243 .332 .439 .770
7 Larry Sheets 1.2 109 6 -24 173 350 2481 94 75 .267 .321 .438 .760
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
Depressing.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 3:29 AM EST up reply actions
Oh.
Oh no.
Ian, Daniel, Josh, and two Trevors: It's not a Christian rock group.
by Zavada's Moustache on Dec 20, 2011 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think
I’ve heard of any of those people…
Have you been good this year? I hope so, because Gibby. Is. Watching.
by imstillhungry95 on Dec 20, 2011 9:44 PM EST up reply actions
I think that was intentional
Jim’s point about ‘cherry picking’ the sample appears quite correct. Shoe probably looked specifically for players that fit a particular profile and included their names and statistics and excluded others that may or may not have supported his point. This is what we mean by “cherry picking.” You’d be surprised at how often it’s done in other areas of study, such as economics.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 20, 2011 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
Thats not true
Look, I am looking for COMPARABLE guys to Kubel.
If you put in a criteria that spits out guys that are clearly NOT comparable, such as Ortiz, Abreu, Drew, Ethier, well, then you just put in the wrong criteria that doesn’t match your subject.
No two guys careers are exactly alike, and of course just because a half dozen guys that profile somewhat closely to Kubel through similar age and experience flamed out quickly, that doesn’t mean Kubel will. I obviously didn’t do an exhaustive study.
BUT……people who HAVE done ehaustive studies into players aging curves will tell you that relatively unathletic guys that don’t run or defend well have a different type of aging curve than guys that do.
Kubel has shown decent, but not exceptional power in his professional career. He does not have exceptional walk rates. He does not run or defend well. If somebody thinks I’m “cherry picking” by excluding guys that do those things, than I don’t think they understand the concept of COMPARABLE
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
"Looking for" is the definition of cherry picking
Its fine to look for ‘comparable,’ but in your case, Jim points out that your ‘comparable players’ were cherry picked.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 21, 2011 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
But cherry picking
implies that he knew the outcome before he started. (Though, if the outcome is “old guys with this skill set don’t play well”, then yeah, he probably did know)
Goldschmidt happens.
As Phil said
Cherry picking is choosing players to compare him to. If he’d said, “here’s Kubel’s career stats lined up next to Brad Hawpe’s, since Hawpe is someone I thought of as a comparable,” that would be cherry picking. I know this because I’ve done it, and done it far too recently as a matter of fact, and I’m not proud of it… However, running the search that he did was not cherry picking.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 21, 2011 8:44 PM EST up reply actions
It's not cherry picking
He used constraints to find players who had similar career profiles within a set of ranges of Kubel’s performance, and listed all of the names that came up. He didn’t exclude names on purpose because they didn’t prove his point, he presented all data available.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 21, 2011 2:26 AM EST up reply actions
Do I have to explain 'objective tests' versus 'quasi-experiments?'
I don’t know what computer program you guys were using, but given the length of his career, I rather doubt that list is entirely inclusive…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 21, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
Check the initial post
All of the criteria are outlined there. It’s everyone who fit the criteria (which are perfectly reasonable) since 1972. All-inclusive.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 21, 2011 8:45 PM EST up reply actions
Somehow,
I look at this signing and suddenly see 2011 Adam Dunn — big, slow left-handed masher who can’t play defense but has above-average pop.
Granted, Dunn was 31 this season, not 30, but Dunn was also better in his prime.
They’re not 100% comparable. I’m just worried, that’s all.
Goldschmidt happens.
You think that chart is depressing
go to the report link, and then open each player in a different tab and look atheir age 30-31 seasons.
Left handed corner outfielders that don’t run well, don’t defend well, and have moderate power with just so so bb/k ratios…..DO NOT AGE WELL it appears
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
Of the six non-Kubels listed
Two didn’t have an age 30 season (Grieve and Plantier – Plantier didn’t even have an age 29 season!). Of the remaining four, Gibbons fell apart after coming off the ‘roids, Mell Hall had a 113 OPS+ at age 30, and none of them had Kubel’s consistency, producing five straight seasons of 100+ OPS, or were moving to a much better hitter’s park from a place that appeared to rob them of their main strength.
To put the cherry-picking tool on the other hand, only four other active left handed corner outfielders had five OPS+ seasons > 100 in their age 25-29 seasons: Ethier, David Ortiz, J.D. Drew and Bobby Abreu. I think we’d settle for Kubel following those player, or even most of the 40 on the all-time list, whose inactive members are led by Geoff Jenkins, Trot Nixon and Shawn Green.
Really, what I’m saying is: you pick your parameters, you can find whatever you want in the historical record. Especially when you shrink the parameters so tightly you have less than a handful of comparables.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
OTOH
comparing Kubel to your active list above is (IMO) very misleading. Those guys didn’t just have OPS+ >100, most of their seasons had OPS+ > 130 or 140. And if you expand to the “all-time list” you get guys like Barry Bonds, Carl Yazstremski, and Willie Stargell.
I think it’s fair to limit the top end of the OPS+ to eliminate the superstars from the comparison. I’m not sure why you would limit to active players, although limiting to the last 30 years or so would seem to make sense from a health/training standpoint.
I do agree you have a good point about small sample size. OPS+ results for year 30 and 31 seasons for the next 10 guys on the list, (excluding Bonds, as he is WAY out of Kubel’s league, and nearly everyone else’s, and Strawberry, as his demise was probably not strictly baseball related) :
Jenkins: 130/101
Nixon: 123/109
Green: 116/113 (after back to back 154s)
Greer: 124/110
Martin: 72/109 (not sure why he wasn’t in Shoe’s list)
Justice: 136/158 (while his ceiling is much higher than Kubel’s , he was just as good at 30/31 as the rest of his career)
O’Neill: 136/176 (got BETTER in his early 30s)
Baines (mult teams in age 30/31, but look to be two of his best years)
Kemp: 87/99
So it appears there are a few guys that actually improved in their 30/31 years, but most tailed off, and a few got significantly worse.
by Craig from Az on Dec 20, 2011 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
Just pointing out
How you can select your restrictions a different way, and hey presto, Kubel’s four “comparables” are suddenly a bunch of All-Stars.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
It wasn't super misleading
He had a range of 100 to 117 for OPS+. Kubel’s OPS+ over that wide span was 112. You could argue that the range should have been even at both ends, but it captures the closest examples. If you want an equal range, here it is, for OPS+ figures between 102 and 122 (equal range on either end), fewer than 20 career stolen bases (to get rid of center fielders), below-average Rfield, and the same BB/K constraint that shoewizard had above.
Kubel’s one of the best of the group, but his company is hardly inspiring. It’s also a bit weird that there are no guys in the last 30 years who have been like Kubel but with an OPS+ closer to 120. No idea why, that guy just doesn’t exist I guess.
Also, fun fact, B-R docked Kubel’s career TZ marks since yesterday. He went from -9 to -13 career. Joy!
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
The main thing I take from the list is
Man, Brad Hawpe really sucks with the glove…
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 20, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Amen to that.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 20, 2011 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
Talent Pyramid
There are naturally going to be a lot fewer guys the higher you go with OPS+
Another thing I often do is expand the age apremeters by a year on either side to capture more guys. Birthdays can be earlier or later in the year, and there isn’t a huge difference in one year anyway.
So for example Kubel played from age 22-29 so far, I just went to age 30 to try to make sure there was more of a chance to bring in similar players.
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
All valid points
Found similar things in the post I have scheduled for tomorrow.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 21, 2011 2:27 AM EST up reply actions
Thanks for the heads up
I’ll be sure to clear my calendar tmw morning so I have time to read it. ;)
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
I like to write... :-/
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 21, 2011 8:45 PM EST up reply actions
Jim thats just awful
The guys you list all reached higher levels than Kubel multiple times. It’s ridiculous and argumentative for arguments sake to throw those out there.
I looked for what Kubel is, without any idea what names would come up:
A left handed guy turning 30 who runs poorly, defends poorly, only plays corner outfield and has 2000 or more PA’ by age 30.
I had no idea what it would spit out. But thats a hell of a lot close than Ortiz, Drew, and Abreu !!!
And the fact that some of the guys didn’t have an age 30 season is EXACTLY the point.
Ortiz, Drew, Abreu, Ethier….?? really ?
Thats not debating in good faith.
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
A lot of this
will really boil down to how Kubel is utilized. If we all agree that he’s a defensive liability in the outfield, and Gibby recognizes this, we may see him at first base or used as a late inning pinch hitting specialist, albeit a very expensive one.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 20, 2011 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
He will start in LF against all RHP
And sit vs. most, or at least half the left handers.
As Jim so appropriately pointed out up thread, Kubel has never played more than 100 games in the field in his career. It will be interesting…….to say the least.
If fully healthy, he’ll get 120 starts in LF, 85% of them vs. RHP, and he’ll DH in AL Parks, and on top of that a few PH AB’s.
Don’t ask me who is going to play LF vs LHP. Ask KT or Gibby.
He isn’t gong to play first unless there is an injury or they release Overbay or Goldschmidt sucks and gets sent down.
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
Not like I started with those four and said "What do they have in common?"
Really, you admit you were specifically looking for players who run poorly and defend poorly, while ignoring Kubel’s strongest point – his consistent offensive production over five years – and that’s “debating in good faith”?
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 21, 2011 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
You mean outside of the range of OPS+ figures over an entire career?
Is an eight-year track record of above-average offensive output that each player in that group showed not consistent offensive production? It’s not like Kubel and his 102/110 wRC+ marks the last two years has definitely, assuredly aged significantly better than every other player in that study.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 21, 2011 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
THIS
The approximate range of career performance covers the consistenc, for the most part.
If you ask me if I think Kubel is a reasonable bet to hit his career OPS+ mark in 2012, I’ll agree…….reasonable bet. No sure thing due to age and potential decline.
BP tries to capture this somewhat in their breakout rates vs. collapse rates.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientest to figure out Kubel’s collapse rate is going to be a lot higher than his breakout rate.
Capish ?
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
But I'll repeat my point
In case you think I’m claiming Kubel = Ethier
Really, what I’m saying is: you pick your parameters, you can find whatever you want in the historical record. Especially when you shrink the parameters so tightly you have less than a handful of comparables.
"There's one rule by which I generally run my life:
What would Mothra do?"
by Jim McLennan on Dec 21, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
That's exactly right
it’s not necessarily a bad thing to have tight exclusion criteria in a quasi-study, but one has to be very clear about what exactly the exclusion and inclusion criteria are and why they are relevant (so that the criteria can be subject to falsification).
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 21, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
Did I say it was an exhaustive/definitive study ?
Yes, you can put in whatever paremeters you want and get different results. I put in what I felt were LOGICAL paremeters. Logic is subjective, no doubt. But some people’s logic is better than others. ;)
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
Logic is objective
arguments are subjective…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 22, 2011 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
Uh...no
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subjective_logic
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
Uh, dude
logic is immutable. Wikipedia is fallible.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 24, 2011 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
Secondly
probability and logic are two separate things. I know, some would like to see a ‘fuzzy (probability based) logic,’ but it doesn’t work.
If you would like to learn about real logic, read “Metalogic, An Introduction to the Metatheory of Standard First Order Logic,” by Geoffrey Hunter, University of California Press.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 24, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
Thirdly, the death of subjectivity
Wikipedia’s proof is this sentence: “A fundamental aspect of the human condition is that nobody can ever determine with absolute certainty whether a proposition about the world is true or false.”
1) Define absolute certainty. For this exercise, we define absolute certainty as a statement about a certain verifiable state of affairs about the world.
2) If absolutely certainty exists, then Wikipedia’s sentence “A fundamental aspect of the human condition is that nobody can ever determine with absolute certainty whether a proposition about the world is true or false,” is necessarily false.
3) There exists a proposition about the world that can be determined with absolute certainty to be either true or false.
4) From three, (2) is false.
5) Subjectivity fails.
4)
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 24, 2011 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
Finally
Probability works to some degree to give us an idea about possible outcomes and states of affairs. It does not, however, explain why there are certain states of affairs. This is an important distinction, because while it may explain that we can expect certain outcomes among a given set of possibilities, it does not explain exactly how specific outcomes occur.
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Dec 24, 2011 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Kubel
can barely be considered an outfielder, though, much like Ortiz. This is the NL. Also, Ethier has similarly been floated here, and often rejected, because, like Kubel, he’s so awful defensively that it takes away much of his batting value.
Goldschmidt happens.
but, but
he just won a GOLD GLOVE!!
Twitter
Mr. Hall, you WILL beat it!
by dbacks25 on Dec 21, 2011 4:19 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Ethiers's D numbers were better in 2011
Giving credence to the assertion that 3-4 year samples sizes are required for fielding metrics. That of course also requires subjective interpretation, because a player’s ability can change a lot over a 3-4 year period, due to aging or injury.
The weird thing here is an older and gimpier Ethrier had better numbers THIS year. Check out career numbers and year by year in RF
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6265&position=OF#fieldingadvanced
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/9MAGZ
NOTE: The BB Ref link doesnt have teh total zone number for 2011, but has the rdsr, which is BIS’s Fielding Bible number. UZR and Fielding bible both had him positive in 2011, so something went right out there for him.
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
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