D-backs Sign RHP Takashi Saito

pretty good, isn’t he?

one’s eyes gouged out in a gawdy myth.

Let’s see if we can piece this together.

From last year’s spreadsheet, Cot’s has $28.9MM in commitments to CY, Drew, Upton, Putz, Duke Buyout, Blum, Blanco Buyout ($250k, which we didn’t pay), and Bloomquist Buyout ($150k, which we didn’t pay). So CY, Drew, Upton, Putz, Blum, and Duke’s Buyout cost combined: $28.5MM.

Bloomquist at 2/$3.8MM is approx. $1.9MM for 2012. New total: $30.4MM

Blanco at 1/$1.2MM. New total: $31.6MM

Cahill at $3.5MM for 2012 as part of his A’s extension. New total: $35.1MM

Hill at 2/$11MM is approx. $5.5MM for 2012. New total: $40.6MM

Overbay at 1/$1MM. New total: $41.6MM

McDonald at 2/$3MM is approx $1.5MM for 2012. New total: $43.1MM

Kennedy, Collmenter, Goldschmidt, Shaw, Parra, Hernandez, Hudson, Paterson each make $480k as part of new CBA, ~$3.8MM total. New total: $46.9MM.

That’s 20 players. We have arbitration cases for Montero, Ziegler, Roberts, and Breslow that we’ll go through, and latest word is we’re non-tendering Saunders and Owings. That’s 23 players. Saito makes 24. Final spot is #5 starting rotation opening, probably from within, but who knows – Saunders remains possible, I s’pose.

Estimated arbitration costs from MLBTR: Montero ($5.3MM), Ziegler ($1.8MM), Roberts ($1.7MM), and Breslow ($1.8MM). Total arbitration costs: $10.6MM. New total: $57.5MM. Add Saito’s salary (probably >$3MM), and if we can get payroll up to $70MM this year, we have $10MM in room left. Is there enough for Kuroda? Not sure. Enough for Saunders? Probably pre-non-tender, but I imagine we’ll be out-bid now. Enough for another starter on a one-year deal? Definitely.

Roy Oswalt suddenly comes back to mind as a possibility in the 1/$9MM range, with his back issues not really too concerning since we have four spots already locked up and tons of prospects around.

But there’s reason to believe that every single one of those guys will be at least average next year. That’s a pretty far cry from 2010.

but then again, they’re relievers, and a couple of these guys have injury histories… But still, solid.

The fact that there’s no one left in the bullpen from the Byrnes era after just two offseasons is pretty staggering.

and adding a 4th outfielder.

Munson, Brewer, Ortega. And, y’know, those Skaggs and Bauer guys.

2007:
FB: 93.2 mph
SL: 83.2 mph
CU: 77.8 mph

2011:
FB: 90.7 mph
SL: 80.0 mph
CU: 76.1 mph

Not like we’re super righty-heavy.

it could happen, but so what?

We’d have as many pitchers as we had before signing him in the first place.

Our collection of late inning relievers are looking pretty sweet.

But I doubt it will happen this year. Putz was fantastic last year and probably hasn’t declined too much since then. Plus, we now have the bullpen depth to weather an injury from Putz. Overall, I suspect the PR hit that would come from trading a closer will be enough to persuade KT and co. to hold off.

But, no, we almost certainly won’t. Plus, it’d be kind of weird to go out and sign another reliever right after dealing Putz, which we almost certainly would. Plus, I see no way that trading Putz to sign someone like, for instance, Micah Owings is anything other than a PR train wreck. If Hernandez struggles for even an instant early in the year, the team would get torn apart in the media. For a team trying to build a generation of young fans in the community, that kind of avoidable public humiliation is something to avoid.

Although I’m curious as to why downward plane would ever be bad? If he loses some velocity, it would likely add further sink (longer time for gravity to do its thang), and with downward plane, that’ll help keep balls on the ground to compensate for the decrease in K’s. Big concern for me is pretty much just health.

no?

Yea, it’s probably all of this reliever to starter talk that’s getting to me.

AZ relievers in 2012
Career xFIP 2011 xFIP
Putz 3.10 3.37
Hernandez 4.67 3.66
Saito 3.20 3.74
Shaw 3.27 3.27
Ziegler 3.72 3.04
Patterson 4.24 4.24
Breslow 4.38 4.40

That’s a darned good bullpen. Note that Hernandez numbers are dramatically impacted by his (failed) attempt as a starter.

Assuming Saunders doesn’t come back, of the 28 pitchers who worked for Arizona in 2010, only two (Hudson and Kennedy) are likely to be on the Opening Day roster next season, depending on who fills the fifth rotation spot.

that’s an impressive list. there’s a reason Saito is still around.

Saito’s inclusion seems to support the hypothesis that Japanese pitchers, for one reason or another, can be effective in relief for far longer than their American counterparts.

Is Ziegler becomes a strict ROOGY. Or at least I really hope he does…

Great deal. How much money does that leave us? Anyone want Beltran as a bench bat?

Honestly, I wouldn’t have had a problem with $4M. Ridiculously good contract.

there goes any risk! If we can’t eat that if need be, we are in bigger trouble than just losing a member of the bullpen