SB Nation Arizona Editor's Pick

Baseball America's Top 10 Diamondbacks Prospects

by rfffr on Nov 29, 2011 3:21 PM EST

1. Trevor Bauer, rhp- Expected him or Skaggs at #1

2. Archie Bradley, rhp- surprised by this one since he's nowhere near MLB ready

3. Tyler Skaggs, lhp-Should be #2

4. Jarrod Parker, rhp-Should be #3. Managed to make the playoff roster. Could be #1 in a weaker system.

5. Matt Davidson, 3b/1b- Top position in the system. Good ranking

6. A.J. Pollock, of-don't know much about Pollock to be honest

7. David Holmberg, lhp-I'll take Holmberg as the fifth best in the system

8. Chris Owings, ss-may be heir apparent to Drew

9. Wade Miley, lhp-Miley is the only one with significant major league experience. He wasn't bad in the preview.

10. Patrick Corbin, lhp-Major league ready. Should see him in 2012

So the top 5 are all top 100 prospects and Pollock is probably on the cusp. System's so stacked they think Parker is our future closer

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Comments

I love the Bradley ranking.

I have a feeling he’s going to be really good.

Also Parker as a closer would make me sad….

by txzona on Nov 29, 2011 10:00 PM EST reply actions

not really surprised by the Bradley ranking

BA loves him and his upside

if anything, was surprised that they had Parker below Skaggs. that to me tells me just how incredible Skaggs has the potential to be, because BA also really loves Parker’s stuff

really thought it was interesting that they had Holmberg at 7 (again, tells me his stuff was better than i had thought) though Sickels did also say Holmberg could rank as high as 7th

i’m also incredibly excited about Matt Davidson. really hope he can take the next step forward and become one of the elite hitting prospects in the game next year. will need to cut the strikeouts down, and it’s unfortunate that Zinter’s no longer at AA to coach him, but i’m optimistic about Davidson.

was also surprised that BA apparently heard we are going to be starting Owings in AA next year. i always assumed he was going to stay at A+.

by blue bulldog on Nov 29, 2011 11:16 PM EST reply actions

one minor correction

BA doesn’t really expect Parker to be a closer, but they just wanted to fit all of our top pitching prospects on that roster somehow (according to their chat), and Parker probably has the highest likelihood at ending up a closer out of those four

by blue bulldog on Nov 29, 2011 11:18 PM EST reply actions

Bauer

gigady

by txzona on Nov 30, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions

Bauer, Skaggs, and Parker all ready for 2012?

Will we see at least 2 out of these 3 guys break spring training with the team? All 3?

by Craig from Az on Nov 30, 2011 9:56 AM EST reply actions

I think 1 of them makes it off the spring trainging team...

But wouldn’t doubt seeing all three by all-star break.

by Pyromnc on Nov 30, 2011 10:32 AM EST up reply actions

My guess would be Parker since he's already gotten a taste... Just to add.

by Pyromnc on Nov 30, 2011 10:32 AM EST up reply actions

I agree

My prediction right now would be Parker breaks camp, Bauer mid-season after service time issues go away, and Skaggs as Sept call-up. That’s so damn exciting!

by Counsellmember on Nov 30, 2011 1:28 PM EST up reply actions

it's unfortunate

but with the new CBA, service time issues won’t go away until a bit later in the summer

by blue bulldog on Nov 30, 2011 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

With Bauer getting a major league contract...

Will there be any kind of service time issues?

http://letswriteanotherstorytonight.blogspot.com/

by pepperdinedevil on Dec 4, 2011 11:14 AM EST up reply actions

No

That clock starts when you hit the big-leagues. If he starts in the minors this year, though, this would count as an option year. Not particularly significant, though, unless he winds up bouncing between the big-leagues and minor-leagues.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 4, 2011 9:26 PM EST up reply actions

Once we get the DH we will regret trading Borchering

I am only have kidding.

at age 20, the SWITCH HITTER homered 24 times, or every 22 AB’s in A+

I completely understand the issues with his defense, and it’s a problem. But his bat is just as good as Davidson’s with MORE UPSIDE, due to being a switch hitter and having more power.

But I guess I am the only one left in America that sees it that way.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Nov 30, 2011 6:44 PM EST reply actions

I compared him to Nick Swisher a few weeks ago.

Hey! I’d be cool with that.

Plus LF is a lot easier to play than 3B and he’s probably got a good arm to boot.

by txzona on Nov 30, 2011 7:15 PM EST up reply actions

He's impressively well-balanced

As far as splits as a lefty and righty hitter (at least in ‘11), but those strikeouts are so concerning. I just like Davidson’s pure hitting ability better. Borchering’s power potential is definitely better, though, and he’s more of a typical #4-profile guy than Davidson (who strikes me as a 3 or 5 hitter more than a 4 guy).

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 30, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions

Average ages

Amazing that both Borch and Davidson still only just completed their age 20 seasons.
(Borchering is 5 months older than Davidson, to Bulldogs point below about older high schoolers). But he is still quite young for his level in the pros. And it’s not like he is dying on a vine out there. He just put up a decent season.

Average Age by level:

A- 21.5
A+ 22.6
AA 24.3
AAA 26.8

Not only are both of them over 2 years younger than avg age for their level, but will be 3 years younger than the avg age next year in AA

By the time we get to 2013, Borchering could be a 22 year old putting up monster power numbers in the PCL. At the very least, they need to hold on to him until then, if for no other reason then to up his trade value.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Dec 1, 2011 1:16 AM EST up reply actions

The ARL figures of all of the top bats from the '09 draft

Are spectacular. His swing is great, too, so if he explodes in the PCL there are some scouts who probably will believe it, even if the approach holes are still there. He is a strong candidate for a guy who could get way overhyped in the PCL, Rizzo-style.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 1, 2011 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

+1

by blue bulldog on Dec 1, 2011 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

as a further comment on this

when you have a young guy who does incredibly well in the PCL, it’s really hard to figure out if you’ve got Brett Lawrie or Anthony Rizzo

by blue bulldog on Dec 1, 2011 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

btw

where did you find the average ages?

i always look for those and can’t find them

by blue bulldog on Dec 2, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

B-R, probably

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 2, 2011 4:41 PM EST up reply actions

i dunno

i’m just not convinced Borchering’s got that much more upside as a hitter than Davidson, mostly because Borchering better attribute (power) isn’t really all that much better than Davidson’s

Borchering’s still really young. and i have no idea how much switch hitters struggle early in their pro careers, as they try to figure out their swings from each side. the strikeouts are really scary though, and the fact that defensively he has to move off 3B (and some scouts don’t really think Borchering can even field in left either) is going to hurt his value.

he definitely still has plenty of upside, and i really hope he could be a long-term power threat in LF.

also, that Rany Jazayerli article about older high-schoolers being overvalued at draft time scares me

by blue bulldog on Dec 1, 2011 1:10 AM EST up reply actions

How much better a "pure hitter" is Davidson ??

Sometimes Rate Stats can deceive a little too:

Davidson had 606 PA’s to Borcherings 590

Yes, there is a 18 point OBP gap…and 12 point BA gap….but look closer.

Davidson had just 3 more walks than Borchering. He was HBP 11 times compared to 5 times for Borchering.

Davidson struck out 147 times. It’s not like he made a lot of contact. Borchering struck out 162 times. Thats 24.3% vs. 27.5 %

Are you really THAT less concerned with Davidson’s K’s than you are with Borcherings ????

Now look at hits:

Borchering had just 7 less hits in 4 less at bats. (Borch 142 for 531, Davidson 149 for 535)

At the end of the day, we are really only talking about a handful of hits and a few walks and HBP difference between the two.

It all added up to a mere 5 points of wRC+ difference between the two.

For me….with so little difference in the hits, walks, wRC+, etc, I feel like the SWITCH HITTER with greater HR power is probably going to end up outproducing the guy that for now looks like about an equal or slightly better hitter by rate stats.

Anyway………I get the “OMG the K’s” reaction to Borchering. I have the same reaction too. He must reduce the K percentage in 2012 or he will indeed stall. But the very same thing goes for Davidson. That should be pretty clear.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Dec 1, 2011 1:33 AM EST up reply actions

it's true

both need to lower their K’s or else they will stall. i agree with that.

the thing for me though, is that Davidson also had a great year in the MWL last year, and that is worth a lot in my eyes.

also, i’m just not convinced that Borch has that much greater HR power than Davidson. part of that stems from the fact that i still think Davidson is going to strike out less than Borch going forward. fwiw, the scouting reports are more positive on Davidson than Borch, when it comes to their ability to make contact and hit tool.

by blue bulldog on Dec 1, 2011 2:09 AM EST up reply actions

I can see ranking Davidson ahead of Borchering

Although at the end of the day, I’m going to need to be convinced I’m wrong by performance, not projection.

The thing is……I don’t understand ranking Davidson 5th and Borchering not even in the top 10 ????

Maybe I’m putting too much stock in him being a switch hitter.

The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.

by shoewizard on Dec 2, 2011 12:33 AM EST up reply actions

I think you're probably right about you valuing the switch-hitting more than most

But, really, for how much it was emphasized coming out of the draft, why is it suddenly meaningless now? It’s a fair point that some people might be under-emphasizing it.

I think the biggie, though, is defensive value. Davidson looks like he’ll stick at third, Bochering is officially in the OF or maybe even 1B. That’s big.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 2, 2011 2:52 AM EST up reply actions