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2011 Diamondbacks, Against The Odds

By on Nov 20 2011, 12:17a 2

Here is a look at how the Diamondbacks 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Diamondbacks games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4969 which translates to an expected win total of 80.49 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Diamondbacks game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4837 or 78.37 wins.  The Diamondbacks actually went 94-68 on the season.  Neither Vegas or the simulator were able to pick up on the Diamondbacks as a 94 win team.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Diamondbacks were the largest favorite to win.

RankDateAway SPHome SPAwayHomeFaveFave Win PercARI Win PercSim ARI Win PercWinning TeamAway RunsHome RunsTotal Runs
1 09-19-2011 Jeff Karstens Ian Kennedy PIT ARI ARI 68.051 68.051 65.74 ARI 0 1 1
2 09-20-2011 Charlie Morton Daniel Hudson PIT ARI ARI 66.387 66.387 62.35 PIT 5 3 8
3 09-11-11 Wade LeBlanc Josh Collmenter SD ARI ARI 65.096 65.096 63.655 SD 7 6 13
4 08-10-11 Wandy Rodriguez Josh Collmenter HOU ARI ARI 64.286 64.286 64.177 ARI 3 6 9
5 08-09-11 Jordan Lyles Jason Marquis HOU ARI ARI 63.57 63.57 66.976 ARI 9 11 20
6 09-24-2011 Eric Surkamp Ian Kennedy SF ARI ARI 63.57 63.57 59.43 ARI 2 15 17
7 06-27-2011 Mitch Talbot Ian Kennedy CLE ARI ARI 63.168 63.168 62.202 CLE 5 4 9
8 05-20-2011 Brian Duensing Ian Kennedy MIN ARI ARI 63.031 63.031 64.308 ARI 7 8 15
9 09-08-11 Cory Luebke Ian Kennedy SD ARI ARI 62.963 62.963 55.394 ARI 1 4 5
10 06-03-11 Yunesky Maya Josh Collmenter WAS ARI ARI 62.894 62.894 60.436 ARI 0 4 4
11 08-08-11 Wandy Rodriguez Daniel Hudson HOU ARI ARI 62.894 62.894 67.312 HOU 9 1 10
12 08-11-11 Brett Myers Joe Saunders HOU ARI ARI 62.617 62.617 61.596 ARI 5 8 13
13 09-26-2011 Dana Eveland Daniel Hudson LAN ARI ARI 62.049 62.049 61.043 LAN 4 2 6
14 07-22-2011 Aaron Cook Daniel Hudson COL ARI ARI 61.905 61.905 56.056 COL 8 4 12
15 08-13-2011 Mike Pelfrey Daniel Hudson NYN ARI ARI 61.538 61.538 66.851 ARI 4 6 10
16 09-21-2011 Ross Ohlendorf Wade Miley PIT ARI ARI 61.24 61.24 63.42 ARI 5 8 13
17 06-05-11 Jason Marquis Ian Kennedy WAS ARI ARI 61.165 61.165 62.283 WAS 9 4 13
18 05-01-11 Casey Coleman Daniel Hudson CHN ARI ARI 61.089 61.089 62.94 ARI 3 4 7
19 08-26-2011 Wade LeBlanc Josh Collmenter SD ARI ARI 61.014 61.014 61.173 ARI 0 5 5
20 08-29-2011 Alex White Daniel Hudson COL ARI ARI 60.552 60.552 56.724 ARI 1 5 6
21 06-01-11 Javier Vazquez Daniel Hudson FLA ARI ARI 60.396 60.396 68.464 ARI 5 6 11
22 07-17-2011 Ted Lilly Daniel Hudson LAN ARI ARI 60.159 60.159 64.511 ARI 1 4 5
23 08-12-11 Dillon Gee Ian Kennedy NYN ARI ARI 60.08 60.08 64.521 ARI 3 4 7
24 09-09-11 Mat Latos Daniel Hudson SD ARI ARI 59.92 59.92 57.767 ARI 2 3 5
25 08-28-2011 Cory Luebke Ian Kennedy SD ARI ARI 59.596 59.596 51.7 ARI 1 6 7
26 08-31-2011 Esmil Rogers Josh Collmenter COL ARI ARI 59.267 59.267 50.014 ARI 2 4 6
27 06-04-11 Livan Hernandez Joe Saunders WAS ARI ARI 58.932 58.932 52.611 ARI 0 2 2
28 09-10-11 Tim Stauffer Wade Miley SD ARI ARI 58.592 58.592 61.885 ARI 5 6 11
29 06-28-2011 Josh Tomlin Daniel Hudson CLE ARI ARI 58.592 58.592 60.583 ARI 4 6 10
30 07-23-2011 Jason Hammel Josh Collmenter COL ARI ARI 58.592 58.592 57.716 ARI 3 12 15
31 05-22-2011 Francisco Liriano Daniel Hudson MIN ARI ARI 58.42 58.42 64.369 ARI 2 3 5
32 08-06-11 Nathan Eovaldi Joe Saunders LAN ARI ARI 58.333 58.333 59.297 LAN 5 3 8
33 08-27-2011 Aaron Harang Joe Saunders SD ARI ARI 58.071 58.071 54.897 ARI 1 3 4
34 05-17-2011 Tim Stauffer Daniel Hudson SD ARI ARI 57.806 57.806 58.82 ARI 1 6 7
35 08-30-2011 Aaron Cook Wade Miley COL ARI ARI 57.356 57.356 51.988 ARI 4 9 13
36 09-17-2011 Josh Collmenter Wade LeBlanc ARI SD ARI 57.265 57.265 49.24 SD 1 3 4
37 08-05-11 Chad Billingsley Josh Collmenter LAN ARI ARI 56.989 56.989 58.165 LAN 7 4 11
38 06-17-2011 Edwin Jackson Daniel Hudson CHA ARI ARI 56.897 56.897 61.104 ARI 1 4 5
39 08-14-2011 Chris Capuano Jason Marquis NYN ARI ARI 56.803 56.803 57.391 ARI 3 5 8
40 06-16-2011 Ryan Vogelsong Ian Kennedy SF ARI ARI 56.427 56.427 51.184 ARI 2 3 5
41 07-16-2011 Hiroki Kuroda Ian Kennedy LAN ARI ARI 55.654 55.654 55.85 ARI 2 3 5
42 04-30-2011 Matt Garza Ian Kennedy CHN ARI ARI 54.955 54.955 51.855 CHN 5 3 8
43 05-29-2011 Josh Collmenter J.A. Happ ARI HOU ARI 54.853 54.853 53.956 ARI 4 2 6
44 07-18-2011 Randy Wolf Josh Collmenter MIL ARI ARI 54.853 54.853 58.091 ARI 0 3 3
45 06-02-11 Jordan Zimmerman Zach Duke WAS ARI ARI 54.545 54.545 49.454 WAS 6 1 7
46 05-30-2011 Chris Volstad Joe Saunders FLA ARI ARI 54.545 54.545 49.584 ARI 4 15 19
47 05-31-2011 Anibal Sanchez Ian Kennedy FLA ARI ARI 54.442 54.442 53.933 FLA 5 2 7
48 06-19-2011 Phil Humber Josh Collmenter CHA ARI ARI 54.233 54.233 56.489 CHA 8 2 10
49 08-24-2011 Daniel Hudson Livan Hernandez ARI WAS ARI 53.811 53.811 50.42 ARI 4 2 6
50 06-22-2011 Ian Kennedy Jeff Francis ARI KC ARI 53.596 53.596 54.127 ARI 3 2 5
51 09-13-2011 Ian Kennedy Chad Billingsley ARI LAN ARI 53.596 53.596 51.346 ARI 5 4 9
52 06-11-11 Ian Kennedy Javier Vazquez ARI FLA ARI 53.271 53.271 51.92 ARI 9 5 14
53 06-12-11 Daniel Hudson Brad Hand ARI FLA ARI 53.271 53.271 55.348 ARI 5 1 6
54 09-28-2011 Ted Lilly Joe Saunders LAN ARI ARI 52.941 52.941 58.93 LAN 7 5 12
55 04-13-2011 Jake Westbrook Ian Kennedy STL ARI ARI 52.719 52.719 52.389 STL 15 5 20
56 05-27-2011 Daniel Hudson Brett Myers ARI HOU ARI 52.719 52.719 57.187 ARI 7 6 13
57 06-09-11 Josh Collmenter Jeff Karstens ARI PIT ARI 52.494 52.494 50.734 ARI 2 0 2
58 06-14-2011 Matt Cain Josh Collmenter SF ARI ARI 52.494 52.494 50.533 SF 6 5 11
59 05-16-2011 Clayton Richard Armando Galarraga SD ARI ARI 52.267 52.267 47.523 SD 8 4 12
60 07-29-2011 Josh Collmenter Ted Lilly ARI LAN ARI 52.267 52.267 51.196 LAN 9 5 14
61 05-05-11 Jason Hammel Ian Kennedy COL ARI ARI 52.153 52.153 51.96 ARI 2 3 5
62 06-07-11 Daniel Hudson Kevin Correia ARI PIT ARI 52.038 52.038 53.029 PIT 5 8 13
63 09-27-2011 Hiroki Kuroda Jarrod Parker LAN ARI ARI 51.456 51.456 57.442 ARI 6 7 13
64 06-23-2011 Daniel Hudson Felipe Paulino ARI KC ARI 51.338 51.338 52.384 ARI 5 3 8
65 08-07-11 Clayton Kershaw Ian Kennedy LAN ARI ARI 51.22 51.22 53.662 ARI 3 4 7
66 05-15-2011 Ian Kennedy Ted Lilly ARI LAN ARI 51.22 51.22 52.614 ARI 4 1 5
67 07-21-2011 Zach Greinke Ian Kennedy MIL ARI ARI 51.1 51.1 48.753 ARI 0 4 4
68 08-22-2011 Joe Saunders Ross Detwiler ARI WAS ARI 51.1 51.1 45.5 WAS 1 4 5
69 05-21-2011 Scott Baker Micah Owings MIN ARI ARI 50.98 50.98 55.171 ARI 6 9 15
70 09-18-2011 Joe Saunders Aaron Harang ARI SD ARI 50.98 50.98 46.93 ARI 5 1 6
71 07-20-2011 Chris Narveson Joe Saunders MIL ARI ARI 50.86 50.86 46.532 MIL 5 2 7
72 07-01-11 Josh Collmenter Rich Harden ARI OAK ARI 50.739 50.739 47.344 OAK 4 5 9
73 06-15-2011 Madison Bumgarner Joe Saunders SF ARI ARI 50.739 50.739 41.237 SF 5 2 7
74 04-09-11 Bronson Arroyo Daniel Hudson CIN ARI CIN 50.249 49.751 50.409 CIN 6 1 7
75 07-28-2011 Daniel Hudson Mat Latos ARI SD SD 50.249 49.751 47.772 SD 3 4 7
76 06-29-2011 Carlos Carrasco Zach Duke CLE ARI CLE 50.617 49.383 52.787 CLE 6 2 8
77 05-07-11 Daniel Hudson Dustin Moseley ARI SD SD 50.86 49.14 53.524 ARI 6 0 6
78 04-29-2011 Carlos Zambrano Armando Galarraga CHN ARI CHN 50.86 49.14 46.545 CHN 4 2 6
79 04-08-11 Travis Wood Ian Kennedy CIN ARI CIN 50.98 49.02 43.213 ARI 2 13 15
80 05-19-2011 Jair Jurrjens Josh Collmenter ATL ARI ATL 51.1 48.9 46.653 ARI 1 2 3
81 06-18-2011 John Danks Zach Duke CHA ARI CHA 51.456 48.544 57.894 CHA 6 2 8
82 09-06-11 Josh Collmenter Jason Hammel ARI COL COL 51.574 48.426 45.754 COL 3 8 11
83 04-10-11 Mike Leake Joe Saunders CIN ARI CIN 51.574 48.426 45.517 ARI 8 10 18
84 04-28-2011 Ryan Dempster Barry Enright CHN ARI CHN 51.574 48.426 52.058 ARI 2 11 13
85 09-23-2011 Matt Cain Joe Saunders SF ARI SF 51.691 48.309 45.05 ARI 1 3 4
86 07-27-2011 Ian Kennedy Cory Luebke ARI SD SD 52.153 47.847 45.163 ARI 4 3 7
87 05-18-2011 Julio Teheran Joe Saunders ATL ARI ATL 52.267 47.733 48.42 ARI 4 5 9
88 08-19-2011 Daniel Hudson Derek Lowe ARI ATL ATL 52.267 47.733 45.665 ATL 2 4 6
89 09-16-2011 Wade Miley Tim Stauffer ARI SD SD 52.267 47.733 49.365 SD 0 2 2
90 04-11-11 Kyle McClellan Barry Enright STL ARI STL 52.381 47.619 46.786 STL 8 2 10
91 04-15-2011 Matt Cain Daniel Hudson SF ARI SF 52.494 47.506 51.713 SF 5 2 7
92 07-26-2011 Joe Saunders Dustin Moseley ARI SD SD 52.494 47.506 43.657 ARI 6 1 7
93 06-08-11 Zach Duke Paul Maholm ARI PIT PIT 52.941 47.059 41.546 PIT 2 3 5
94 04-16-2011 Barry Zito Joe Saunders SF ARI SF 52.941 47.059 47.823 SF 5 3 8
95 07-03-11 Ian Kennedy Gio Gonzalez ARI OAK OAK 53.162 46.838 41.943 OAK 2 7 9
96 04-17-2011 Madison Bumgarner Barry Enright SF ARI SF 53.162 46.838 47.603 ARI 5 6 11
97 05-28-2011 Zach Duke Bud Norris ARI HOU HOU 53.271 46.729 41.873 ARI 11 3 14
98 08-23-2011 Ian Kennedy Jordan Zimmerman ARI WAS WAS 53.271 46.729 42.235 ARI 2 0 2
99 07-04-11 Daniel Hudson Shaun Marcum ARI MIL MIL 53.38 46.62 46.868 ARI 8 6 14
100 09-04-11 Daniel Hudson Ryan Vogelsong ARI SF SF 53.38 46.62 47.56 ARI 4 1 5
101 09-12-11 Joe Saunders Ted Lilly ARI LAN LAN 53.38 46.62 50.039 ARI 7 2 9
102 05-25-2011 Ian Kennedy Jason Hammel ARI COL COL 53.38 46.62 39.408 ARI 2 1 3
103 06-21-2011 Joe Saunders Luke Hochevar ARI KC KC 53.38 46.62 51.903 ARI 7 2 9
104 07-31-2011 Joe Saunders Rubby DeLaRosa ARI LAN LAN 53.38 46.62 40.469 ARI 6 3 9
105 05-08-11 Joe Saunders Aaron Harang ARI SD SD 53.704 46.296 45.774 SD 3 4 7
106 09-05-11 Wade Miley Esmil Rogers ARI COL COL 54.023 45.977 35.759 ARI 10 7 17
107 07-08-11 Ian Kennedy Kyle Lohse ARI STL STL 54.023 45.977 36.965 ARI 7 6 13
108 04-26-2011 Roy Oswalt Daniel Hudson PHI ARI PHI 54.023 45.977 48.05 ARI 5 7 12
109 07-19-2011 Yovanni Gallardo Barry Enright MIL ARI MIL 54.023 45.977 45.859 MIL 11 3 14
110 09-25-2011 Tim Lincecum Josh Collmenter SF ARI SF 54.442 45.558 50.243 ARI 2 5 7
111 05-03-11 Jorge de la Rosa Joe Saunders COL ARI COL 54.545 45.455 43.717 ARI 3 4 7
112 04-21-2011 Daniel Hudson Mike Leake ARI CIN CIN 54.649 45.351 41.709 CIN 4 7 11
113 04-23-2011 Barry Enright Dillon Gee ARI NYN NYN 54.649 45.351 40.25 NYN 4 6 10
114 07-15-2011 Clayton Kershaw Joe Saunders LAN ARI LAN 54.649 45.351 42.117 LAN 6 4 10
115 07-02-11 Joe Saunders Josh Outman ARI OAK OAK 54.853 45.147 41.481 ARI 4 2 6
116 08-01-11 Ian Kennedy Matt Cain ARI SF SF 54.955 45.045 38.795 ARI 5 2 7
117 05-12-11 Daniel Hudson Matt Cain ARI SF SF 55.157 44.843 46.426 SF 2 3 5
118 05-04-11 Jhoulys Chacin Barry Enright COL ARI COL 55.457 44.543 41.032 COL 6 4 10
119 04-22-2011 Joe Saunders Mike Pelfrey ARI NYN NYN 55.457 44.543 39.926 NYN 1 4 5
120 07-30-2011 Micah Owings Chad Billingsley ARI LAN LAN 55.654 44.346 36.953 ARI 6 4 10
121 09-07-11 Joe Saunders Kevin Millwood ARI COL COL 56.236 43.764 39.037 ARI 5 3 8
122 06-13-2011 Zach Duke Ricky Nolasco ARI FLA FLA 56.616 43.384 38.048 ARI 12 9 21
123 08-25-2011 Wade Miley John Lannan ARI WAS WAS 56.616 43.384 46.03 ARI 8 1 9
124 06-26-2011 Joe Saunders Brad Penny ARI DET DET 56.803 43.197 38.295 DET 3 8 11
125 09-14-2011 Daniel Hudson Clayton Kershaw ARI LAN LAN 56.803 43.197 41.24 LAN 2 3 5
126 07-24-2011 Ubaldo Jimenez Micah Owings COL ARI COL 56.989 43.011 41.16 ARI 0 7 7
127 05-06-11 Armando Galarraga Tim Stauffer ARI SD SD 57.173 42.827 36.906 SD 3 4 7
128 07-09-11 Daniel Hudson Chris Carpenter ARI STL STL 57.173 42.827 39.768 STL 6 7 13
129 04-12-11 Chris Carpenter Armando Galarraga STL ARI STL 57.173 42.827 39.009 ARI 8 13 21
130 07-07-11 Joe Saunders Kyle McClellan ARI STL STL 57.356 42.644 34.308 ARI 4 1 5
131 05-14-2011 Josh Collmenter Chad Billingsley ARI LAN LAN 57.356 42.644 38.892 ARI 1 0 1
132 04-24-2011 Armando Galarraga John Niese ARI NYN NYN 57.537 42.463 36.124 NYN 4 8 12
133 04-05-11 Barry Enright Andrew Cashner ARI CHN CHN 57.627 42.373 41.736 CHN 5 6 11
134 08-03-11 Jason Marquis Ryan Vogelsong ARI SF SF 57.717 42.283 42.121 SF 1 8 9
135 06-24-2011 Zach Duke Phil Coke ARI DET DET 58.246 41.754 37.991 ARI 7 6 13
136 08-18-2011 Ian Kennedy Vance Worley ARI PHI PHI 58.932 41.068 39.99 PHI 1 4 5
137 09-03-11 Ian Kennedy Tim Lincecum ARI SF SF 59.184 40.816 38.928 ARI 7 2 9
138 04-25-2011 Cliff Lee Ian Kennedy PHI ARI PHI 59.267 40.733 41.693 ARI 0 4 4
139 04-19-2011 Armando Galarraga Sam LeCure ARI CIN CIN 59.596 40.404 34.134 ARI 5 4 9
140 04-20-2011 Ian Kennedy Bronson Arroyo ARI CIN CIN 59.677 40.323 39.217 ARI 3 1 4
141 08-02-11 Daniel Hudson Tim Lincecum ARI SF SF 59.759 40.241 39.56 ARI 6 1 7
142 06-10-11 Joe Saunders Anibal Sanchez ARI FLA FLA 59.759 40.241 32.324 FLA 4 6 10
143 04-27-2011 Cole Hamels Joe Saunders PHI ARI PHI 59.759 40.241 40.775 PHI 8 4 12
144 04-02-11 Daniel Hudson Jorge de la Rosa ARI COL COL 60 40 36.731 COL 1 3 4
145 07-06-11 Josh Collmenter Yovanni Gallardo ARI MIL MIL 60.08 39.92 42.567 MIL 1 3 4
146 04-04-11 Joe Saunders Randy Wells ARI CHN CHN 60.317 39.683 40.286 CHN 1 4 5
147 05-26-2011 Micah Owings Clay Mortensen ARI COL COL 60.396 39.604 36.61 ARI 6 3 9
148 05-11-11 Armando Galarraga Jonathan Sanchez ARI SF SF 60.861 39.139 32.83 SF 3 4 7
149 04-06-11 Armando Galarraga Ryan Dempster ARI CHN CHN 60.938 39.063 37.018 ARI 6 4 10
150 09-02-11 Joe Saunders Matt Cain ARI SF SF 61.464 38.536 33.42 SF 2 6 8
151 05-24-2011 Joe Saunders Jorge de la Rosa ARI COL COL 61.686 38.314 38.314 COL 4 12 16
152 08-21-2011 Josh Collmenter Tim Hudson ARI ATL ATL 61.832 38.168 41.607 ATL 0 1 1
153 07-10-11 Zach Duke Jaime Garcia ARI STL STL 62.406 37.594 33.496 STL 2 4 6
154 05-24-2011 Josh Collmenter Jhoulys Chacin ARI COL COL 62.406 37.594 37.594 ARI 5 2 7
155 07-05-11 Zach Duke Randy Wolf ARI MIL MIL 62.756 37.244 46.223 ARI 7 3 10
156 06-25-2011 Josh Collmenter Justin Verlander ARI DET DET 62.894 37.106 32.424 DET 0 6 6
157 05-10-11 Ian Kennedy Tim Lincecum ARI SF SF 62.963 37.037 35.779 SF 0 1 1
158 05-13-2011 Joe Saunders Clayton Kershaw ARI LAN LAN 63.303 36.697 39.052 LAN 3 4 7
159 08-20-2011 Wade Miley Brandon Beachy ARI ATL ATL 63.57 36.43 39.019 ATL 1 8 9
160 04-01-11 Ian Kennedy Ubaldo Jimenez ARI COL COL 64.602 35.398 27.641 ARI 7 6 13
161 08-16-2011 Josh Collmenter Roy Halladay ARI PHI PHI 69.231 30.769 32.906 ARI 3 2 5
162 08-17-2011 Joe Saunders Cliff Lee ARI PHI PHI 70.326 29.674 29.936 PHI 2 9 11

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

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