Pure Speculation: Cole Hamels To The Desert?

by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 16, 2011 1:42 PM EST

In case you haven't seen it, BP's Kevin Goldstein has a new article up today about the prospects of Philadelphia trading left-hander Cole Hamels (it's up for members at either ESPN or BP). The scenarios involve eight different teams (can't go into it much more for obvious reasons), but the basic outline is that Philadelphia will be looking for some combination of a replacement starting pitcher (i.e. big-league-ready), relief help, infield help, and athletes. Luckily, Arizona has a TON of payers who fit three of those four categories, with the infield help one being a bit more tenuous - Goldstein particularly mentions middle-infield help, although if you expand it to include third basemen, things get even more interesting.

Just take a look at some of the pieces Arizona could put into such a package:

Starting Pitching: Jarrod Parker, Tyler Skaggs, Wade Miley, Patrick Corbin. (Trevor Bauer cannot be traded yet, and I wouldn't move him anyways.)

Relief Help: David Hernandez, Bryan Shaw, Ryan Cook, Evan Marshall, Kevin Munson.

Infield Help: Matt Davidson, Chris Owings, David Nick, Ryan Wheeler.

Athletes: Keon Broxton, Ty Linton, Wagner Mateo.

The possibilities are seemingly endless. Corbin, Hernandez, Davidson, and Mateo? Skaggs, Shaw, Nick, and Broxton? Parker, Cook, Wheeler, and Linton? I think any of these packages seriously pique the interest of the Phillies, and provide them with talent that they actually control on the cheap, which will come in handy with the eight-figure salaries they're giving out like candy.

As for Hamels, we'd be getting one year of Arb4 control - somewhere in the $14MM range - of a pitcher who contributed 4.9 fWAR last year with a 2.79 ERA and 3.05 FIP in 216 innings of work, and has a career trend of his ERA out-performing his FIP by about .3 (career ERA 3.39, career FIP 3.63). He's another legitimate Ace that Arizona could put either #1 or #2 in its rotation alongside Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson, giving the D-backs one of the best top-3 starting pitching tandems in the game. Arizona would enter the season with a rotation of Kennedy, Hamels, Hudson, Josh Collmenter, and one of Bauer plus whoever isn't traded among the Parker/Skaggs/Miley/Corbin quartet.

The bullpen would be a bit thinned out if we were to move Hernandez or Shaw, but their job would be easy with the rotation that's assembled, making great use of the several specialist types Arizona already has to cobble together a couple innings at the end of a game. It would be a 2011 Brewers type strategy, depleting the farm for a legitimate run at a World Series, but Arizona's farm would still be quite solid even after a move, and it would make us bona fide World Series contenders. On the other hand, there isn't a big impending free agent on the roster like Prince Fielder was for the Brewers, so it could be argued that it's speeding up the D-backs window unnecessarily early, but hey, rings last forever.

Thoughts, everybody? What package would you offer? If anybody completely off-limits for you?

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Comments

He's a rental.

Rentals rarely work out,because winning the world series is a pretty luck based achievement . I don’t think it would be worth it.

But if it were to happen… I’d offer as much as Tyler Skaggs, Ryan Wheeler, and Kevin Munson.

by txzona on Nov 16, 2011 1:58 PM EST reply actions

Not interested

I don’t think I’d do Skaggs alone for 1 year of Hamels, and I like Hamels.

Even though we’ll soon be without Drew and Montero is in his final year, I don’t feel the pressure of a “must win now” year coming up. We are just entering our window of opportunity, and it’s the cheap years of elite pitching that will determine how long that window stays open. I’d hate to sacrifice so much of the future to increase our chances this year.

However, never say never. I would offer the second tier prospects down the line for Hamels; maybe Miley/Corbin, Cook, Wheeler, Broxton.

by Counsellmember on Nov 16, 2011 3:12 PM EST reply actions

There is a good chance Montero will be extended.

by txzona on Nov 16, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

I hope he’ll take a 3 year deal. I just don;t like big contracts to catchers. But I hope we they can find something mutually agreeable with Montero. He’s very underrated.

by Counsellmember on Nov 16, 2011 10:05 PM EST up reply actions

For only one year

Giving up anything Corbin or higher on the prospect totem pole seems like a hard pill to swallow given the window for any chance of winning is just now opening, and it’s not gonna happen without one of those young arms getting moved, more than likely Skaggs or Parker. The only real marquee name that could (will) be gone in 2013 is Drew, so it’s not like 2012 or bust for this team. I’d like to see the offense (Roberts, Parra, Goldy mostly) produce one more year before thinking of going all in like that.

I’d pass and take a chance on Kuroda or Ozwalt if they could be had.

by SenSurround on Nov 16, 2011 3:22 PM EST reply actions

Or Buehrle for that matter

But that’ll take a multi-year to get done, and I don’t know what the FO is looking for commitment wise to a veteran.

by SenSurround on Nov 16, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

Can you give us the link?

If we could get a decent contract extension from him like maybe 3/40 I would be willing to give up Parker/Cook/Nick/Broxton.
If we can’t get that extension no dice. Hamels is really nice but definitely not worth the prospects we would have to give up.

"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd

by blank_38 on Nov 16, 2011 3:27 PM EST reply actions

3/40 would be a steal.

i think he wants at least 6/100.

"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd

by blank_38 on Nov 16, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks but no thanks

Better to stay cost effective and hope 2 of the 4 aces we have in the Minors (Bradley, Bauer, Parker, Skaggs) pan out. No reason to do something crazy like this. I think all 4 of the guys I mentioned before are untouchable unless we are getting a legit bat.

by rapdawg on Nov 16, 2011 3:36 PM EST reply actions

steal for the phillies

if the d-backs did this, they are stupid, Cole Hamels is good but he ain’t like a Justin Verlander which is the only pitcher that is worth a package like that. Parker and Skaggs is big league ready, and in about 3 years, bauer and bradley should be, too. Maybe phillies are trying to get back some pieces after they dumped cossart, singleton and santana for pence.

by kdogg1980 on Nov 16, 2011 4:03 PM EST reply actions

FWIW

I do think that the offers in the post are overpays. I’d probably try to spin something like Corbin, Holmberg, and Broxton. Comps for this include the Jimenez trade and the Dipoto Haren trade.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 16, 2011 4:14 PM EST reply actions

I think that trade would go over swimmingly in Philly.

by txzona on Nov 16, 2011 4:30 PM EST up reply actions

I think some of the trades in there would get laughed at.

Especially the Dodgers and Cubs ones.

by The Goat on Nov 16, 2011 5:07 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

And I kind of tried to model my packages in the FanPost after those ones, but they were far, far too much going to Philly for the most part. The Boston one was more realistic.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 16, 2011 5:22 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think

that any of the trades you outline here are unreasonable, but I don’t really think we need to go out and get him. I mean, odds are with the depth of pitching prospects we have, we’re going to get at least one top level pitcher with out trading, and we already have IPK, Huddy, and Collmenter for sure. I don’t see enough gain for us, and way to much potential loss especially if we don’t get an extension on Hamels, which would be a distinct possiblity

Oh where oh where have my Dbacks gone? Oh where oh where could they be!

by imstillhungry95 on Nov 16, 2011 4:48 PM EST reply actions

not gonna happen

by AzDbackfanInDc on Nov 16, 2011 6:14 PM EST reply actions

i guess

I’ll be that one guy who thinks it would be a good trade. Let’s face it, the prospect of Bauer, Skaggs, Parker, Bradley, or Corbin ever being as good as Hamels is not as great as we’d hope. In fact, if one of those guys reached Hamel’s level I’d say we made out quite well which is why I would not mind the trade. We would be trading unproven (although promising prospects) for a proven #2 and sometimes ace and with Hamels, Kennedy, and Hudson heading the rotation I do believe that we would have a solid chance getting to the WS.

I hate "Red Sox Nation"

by superwong18 on Nov 16, 2011 11:08 PM EST reply actions

i still think

the probability of guys like Bauer and Skaggs in particular, doing well in the majors, is higher than people think

pitchers with similar performances as Bauer in college tend to be “alright”, so long as they don’t get injured (which is a sunk risk with every pitcher, though arguably, the injury risk to a young pitcher like Bauer is a little higher than the injury risk to a pitcher like Hamels). we’re talking about comparable performances (in terms of strikeouts, which i find to be a great indicator) with guys like Strasburg, Verlander, Lincecum, Price, Weaver, etc. i don’t think Bauer will end up being as good as Verlander or Lincecum, but even if he’s only “as good” as Price, Weaver, i’d rather not trade him.

for Skaggs, if you look at the guys with comparable strikeout rates in the Southern League, they are also some pretty amazing pitchers. you’re talking about guys like Matt Moore, Hellickson, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, Tommy Hanson, and of course, our very own Dan Hudson (one reason i was incredibly excited when we traded for Hudson).

to me Skaggs and Bauer are untouchables. as long as they don’t get injured, i think they have a higher (than what scouts would say) chance of turning into a good MLB pitcher.

by blue bulldog on Nov 16, 2011 11:27 PM EST up reply actions

I agree totally with you

but the thing is that injuries always play a part. How many times have we seen a highly touted pitching prospect turn into nothing but a name in a matter of one pitch that derailed their whole career? With pitchers we are dealing with the most unnatural motion in all of sports. Which is why I’d have no problem dealing Skaggs (but not Bauer) in a deal for Hamels. I really do think that best case scenario Skaggs turns into a Hamels, but again I’d rather go for the almost sure thing. And its not like we would have to trade Skaggs and Bauer.

I hate "Red Sox Nation"

by superwong18 on Nov 16, 2011 11:37 PM EST up reply actions

As Bulldog said...

what’s to keep Hamels from getting injured himself? While one might feel more comfortable with a slightly older pitcher (myself included), Hamels is also just one pitch away from derailing the rest of his career. And didn’t he have a mostly ineffective season two years ago because of injury?

One year of slightly less risk is not worth six years of one of our top guys, IMO.

by Counsellmember on Nov 17, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions

thats a really good point

but that injury did not derail his career and for the last two seasons he has had all star caliber years. I think the slightly less risk is an exaggeration as hes proved that he has been able to pitch over and close to 200 innings very well, something that none of our prospects can say right now. And whose to say that he will or won’t resign, but I would bet you that the amount of WAR he would produce here in one year would probably match the amount that Skaggs, Bauer, or Parker will have their entire careers here.

I hate "Red Sox Nation"

by superwong18 on Nov 21, 2011 10:27 AM EST up reply actions

there's no way

i’d gladly take that bet

at least one of Skaggs, Bauer, Parker having more career WAR than Cole Hamels’ WAR next year

by blue bulldog on Nov 21, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions

Even I'm not that crazy...

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 21, 2011 1:16 PM EST up reply actions

and i will bet you

at least one will not. So what would you say an average career is 20 years including seasons spent in the minors? Alright, then let’s go back to Baseball America’s list of the top 10 pitching prospects in 1991. The pitchers were Kirk Dressendorfer, Anthony Young, Roger Salkeld, Arthur Rhodes, Willie Banks, Rich Garces, Mike Mussina, Reid Cornelius, Kurt Miller, and Todd Van Poppel. Cole Hamel produced 4.9 fWAR in 2011 and I’d argue he could produce upwards of 5 fWAR continuing in his career. But lets stick with the figure 4.9 fWAR. Can you guess how many pitchers in that list of top 10 from 1991 had more than 4.9 fWAR in their entire careers? 3. Yes, three. Not just three pitchers from a top farm system, but the three from the top 10 in the whole major leagues. Willie Banks barely beat out the 4.9 fWAR figure with 5.1 in his career. Now sure, you can say that scouting is much better today than it was 20 years ago, but the point that I am trying to make is that prospects are exactly that, prospects. They have shown absolutely nothing in the majors and if I have a prospect that I can trade for a proven top 20 pitcher in the majors today, sign me up. Yeah there’s a chance that all Skaggs, Bauer, Parker, Corbin, and Miley do produce more than 4.9 fWAR, but theres an even more likely chance that a majority of them don’t. Call me crazy or whatever you want, but that’s just my opinion.

I hate "Red Sox Nation"

by superwong18 on Nov 21, 2011 6:18 PM EST up reply actions

Totally not what you said above

Above you said that Hamels would, in one year, surpass the WAR totals of Bauer, Skaggs, or Parker, not of one of Bauer, Skaggs, or Parker. That’s what was crazy about it. You said that none of them would surpass the WAR that Hamels would put up in ’12. Also, Corbin and Miley are nowhere near the level of Skaggs, Bauer, or Parker, and their inclusion makes it an extremely safe bet with your modified conditions.

Also, to your point about the ‘91 group, keep in mind that medical technology for surgically repairing pitcher injuries has dramatically improved in recent years. If Jarrod Parker had been drafted in ’88 rather than ’08 and had his elbow pop in ’90 rather than ’10, he’d be as good as cooked. Now, though, he’s back on the mound, made it to the big-leagues, and looks like he’s here to stay.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 21, 2011 8:23 PM EST up reply actions

well then

it must have been my wording because that is crazy. Obviously Bauer, Skaggs, and Parker’s career fWAR combined stands a large chance to surpass Hamels and what I meant was one of them. The only way I would have said what you guys seem to have thought I said was if I proposed to trade all three, which well I did not.

I hate "Red Sox Nation"

by superwong18 on Nov 21, 2011 8:57 PM EST up reply actions

not to be super-picky/a jackass

but you just took it to the other extreme

no one is saying Bauer, Skaggs, and Parker’s career fWAR combined won’t surpass Hamels

we are saying that one of Bauer, Skaggs, or Parker (which is what we thought you meant in your original statement) will have more fWAR than Hamels next year

that is very different from one of Bauer, Skaggs, or Parker will not have more fWAR than Hamels next year

as well as being completely different from saying Bauer, Skaggs, and Parker’s career fWAR combined will surpass Hamels’s fWAR next year

by blue bulldog on Nov 21, 2011 11:12 PM EST up reply actions

well

i think it’s just been difficult for us both to understand what we both fully mean

I hate "Red Sox Nation"

by superwong18 on Nov 24, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions

and i included Corbin and Miley

becuase they were included in the trade options

I hate "Red Sox Nation"

by superwong18 on Nov 21, 2011 8:59 PM EST up reply actions

and i will bet you

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by superwong18 on Nov 21, 2011 6:17 PM EST up reply actions

that's not your original bet

“…but I would bet you that the amount of WAR he would produce here in one year would probably match the amount that Skaggs, Bauer, or Parker will have their entire careers here” is what you originally said.

like i said, at least one of the three (Bauer, Skaggs, Parker) will have more career WAR than Hamels’ WAR total next year

also, you have to realize that prospect analysis has improved dramatically since the early 1990’s, due to better scouting and sabermetrics

just look at BA’s 2009 Top 100 list. Parker, Bauer, and Skaggs will likely all be among the Top 30 prospects in baseball next year. here’s 2009’s list of pitching prospects in the Top 30: Price, Hanson, Anderson, Bumgarner, Cahill, Porcello, Tillman, Matusz, Parker (with Holland at 31).

there are only three guys on this list, who have not bested Cole Hamels’ career fWAR this past year (5 fWAR). one of these guys (Parker) is only just about to make it to the majors. the other two (Tillman, Matusz) pitch in the AL East, and there’s still a very realistic chance that Matusz gets to 5 fWAR in his career. note, for all of these guys, they’ve had less than three years of their career.

2008 list of Top 30: Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz, Clayton Kershaw, Franklin Morales, Homer Bailey, David Price, Jake McGee, Wade Davis, Rick Porcello, Nick Adenhart, Gio Gonzalez, Adam Miller

of these, Franklin Morales, Jake McGee, Wade Davis, Nick Adenhart, and Adam Miller have not already passed the “Cole Hamels one-year threshold.” Adenhart passed away, so we’ll never know about him. Wade Davis still has a shot at making the Hamels threshold. it’s also still too early to say about McGee. so really, only two guys on this list have “busted” with your criteria, so to speak.

if i had to guess, i’d say that individually-speaking, there’s probably around a 70% chance that an individual Top 30 pitching prospect ends up having over 5 fWAR in their career. and, for guys like Bauer and Skaggs (a lot of ppl would have them both among the Top 15 prospects) that probability goes even higher.

for each of the three to be above 5 fWAR in their career would obviously be more difficult, but should still be somewhere between 30-40%.

by blue bulldog on Nov 21, 2011 8:29 PM EST up reply actions

well it was the intent of my bet (of course not a real one)

for any of those pitcher’s entire career fWAR to exactly match 4.9 would just be a weird and awkward bet. And i did in fact realize that scouting is better today as i said “Now sure, you can say that scouting is much better today than it was 20 years ago, but the point that I am trying to make is that prospects are exactly that, prospects.” And of those guys in the list and our own prospects, how many would you rather have over Hamels? Price, Kershaw, and Hanson and thats because all of them have had major league experience. And that is my point, I will take high quality major league experience and performance over even a promising prospect because what do you think the percentage is for if we had Hamels, him putting up a great season versus Bauer, Skaggs, or Parker putting up the same? I think Hamels would have the higher percentage. Because he has shown that he’s done it before I would take Hamels.

I hate "Red Sox Nation"

by superwong18 on Nov 21, 2011 8:53 PM EST up reply actions

sure Hamels will have a higher percentage chance of putting up a greater season next year than at least one, if not all, of BSP

you have to measure it against the benefit that those guys will provide down the road though

at the end of the day, studies have shown that a prospect of Bauer, Skaggs, or Parker’s calibre has an expected value of $16 million in surplus

Hamels can be expected to put up an expected value of $14 million in surplus or lower next year

i would only trade Parker for Hamels straight up, because i’m lower on Parker than a lot of other people, like BA (and thus i think his expected value is lower). i would never trade Skaggs or Bauer for Hamels straight up. and if i had to add in other prospects in a Parker package, i’d almost definitely not do that as well.

by blue bulldog on Nov 21, 2011 11:17 PM EST up reply actions

and I used the list from 20 years ago

not to take advantage of the deficiencies in the scouting during the time, but to show examples of a whole career which I deemed 20 years to be. Of course, in 20 years if we used a list from today it could very well be different , but I do not currently possess a time machine.

I hate "Red Sox Nation"

by superwong18 on Nov 21, 2011 9:03 PM EST up reply actions

I don't know man

Those are four really good prospects, plus one pretty decent one. I’m willing to bet good money that at least one turns out as good or better than Hamels.

by txzona on Nov 16, 2011 11:35 PM EST up reply actions

who knows

maybe they all turn out to be aces, but my reasoning goes along with John Sickels “Keep in mind, of course, that if you have five great pitching prospects, you’re doing well if you get one or two above-average pitchers” and if were following those guidelines I would consider Hamels to be well above average so I would be in favor of a deal.

I hate "Red Sox Nation"

by superwong18 on Nov 16, 2011 11:40 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think so

I like Hamels a lot, but any of these ideas seem too steep a price. Skaggs AND Shaw?? Parker AND the rest of those guys? The Corbin bunch looks slightly better, but still too high. Especially for what would essentially be a one-year rental player. You are very right that I don’t feel the “win right now” mentality that happened in Milwaukee this year.

It would be great to have Hamels. But, I don’t feel the pressure to make this kind of deal right now.

by SongBird on Nov 17, 2011 12:16 AM EST reply actions