Diamondbacks Re-Sign 2B Aaron Hill
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 13, 2011 10:51 PM EST
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As ESPN's Jim Bowden hinted at earlier today, and as initially reported by Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic on Twitter, the Arizona Diamondbacks have officially re-signed second baseman Aaron Hill to a two-year contract worth $11MM, with the final figure coming from SI's Jon Heyman. This move appears to lock in the everyday lineup, with Ryan Roberts staying at third base and Hill keeping the everyday second baseman job that he thrived in at the end of last season. The only real question is whether or not Stephen Drew will be healthy in time for Opening Day, but he should regain his spot as the everyday shortstop whenever he is able to come back, also joining Paul Goldschmidt, Gerardo Parra, Chris Young, Justin Upton, and Miguel Montero as the D-backs' everyday eight.
Originally acquired alongside John McDonald in exchange for Kelly Johnson before the waiver deadline last year, Hill's history of struggles over the last couple of years with the Blue Jays has been well-documented. After hitting .286/.330/.499 with 36 home runs and a 114 wRC+ in his breakout 2009 campaign, Hill clubbed 26 home runs in 2010 but fell to .205/.271/.394 and a 76 wRC+. The primary culprit behind this was Hill simply not squaring up the ball anymore, seeing his LD% drop to a mere 10.6% in 2010 (18.9% career) and his FB% spike to over 50%, sinking his BABIP to a mere .196, which in turn collapsed overall line. In an effort to continue hitting more and more home runs, it seems that Hill lost his solid contact-hitting abilities, which proved to be a bigger loss than the home runs could make up for.
Hill reversed many of these trends in 2011, seeing his LD% jump back up to 18.7% with the Blue Jays and his FB% settling back down to 43.5%, but the production still didn't come. Despite the batted ball rates returning to normalcy, the BABIP did not north of the border, staying at a mere .242 in 104 games with the Jays. His batting line remained stagnant, at .225/.270/.313 with a 61 wRC+, plummeting Hill to below-replacement-level depths. However, Arizona's scouts remained high on Hill, and GM Kevin Towers pounced on the opportunity to snag him from the Jays. Despite the subsequent uproar the move created (guilty!), Hill responded by spiking his LD% to legendary levels for the rest of the year, with a 29.5% rate for the rest of the season and a .315/.386/.492 line and 134 wRC+ in 33 games.
Hill's total line for 2011 ended up at .246/.299/.356, with an 82 wRC+, eight home runs, and 21 stolen bases in 28 attempts, with a career-high 21.2% LD% and .268 BABIP, compared to a career-average of .285. Hill's LD% might regress a bit in 2012, but his BABIP should nonetheless continue to rise from its 2010 depths so long as the D-backs keep Hill away from the black hole of fly-balls he was sucked into during that woeful 2010 campaign. Additionally, Hill gives Arizona a quality defender at second base, with a career 15.1 UZR in 908 games, playing exclusively at second base since 2007. His career UZR/150 at second is 4.2, and one of his middle infield partners next year, John McDonald, is a familiar double play partner from their shared time in Toronto.
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I'm glad he's coming back.
5 mill a year for a 2B with great upside is well worth it.
It’s also good news because Roberts at 2B would have been an unknown and finding a 3B would have been difficult , " Hello Felip Lopez!"
I don't like this
Not because I don’t like Hill. I do. It’s just that I wanted to see RyRo to 2b and get a legit 3B/ 4 hole guy. We don’t have a 4 hole hitter to protect Upton. Miggy had a career yr last yr and I suspect he will regress a bit. Even if he doesn’t, those numbers are not 4 hole numbers. Hard to argue with bringing back the exact same lineup that got you to the dance last year. Just wanted a splash in FA to add a bigger bat.
Don't give up hope
I’m sure Kevin Towers is calling Wade Boggs right now and asking if he’d like a two-year-contract.
Wear your own fur.
by Marc Fournier on Nov 13, 2011 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
Except...
OMG… I could have sworn Wade Boggs was better than an average of seven home runs a year.
Wear your own fur.
by Marc Fournier on Nov 13, 2011 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, those Dread Pirate grand slams
really meant nothin’…
Is it mid-February yet?
by NASCARbernet on Nov 14, 2011 12:25 AM EST up reply actions
Its not like we already have one
In Goldschmidt. (insert sarcasim)
Goldy would do great as a cleanup hitter, #4 guy. He would give Upton alot more protection than montero does.
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
he needs to cut his strikeout rate down
for me to comfortably project him there
by blue bulldog on Nov 14, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
yeah i think he's a year away from being that legit 4 hole guy
and maybe that’s what they are thinking……Miggy holds the fort for 1 more yr
Honestly
I think Goldy goes in there now. Just fro his presence there to make Upton see better pitches. Miggy scares me when he tries to do too much, which can happen alot. If he can knock that off, then by all means let him stay at 4.
But IMO when a pitcher is facing Upton he is thinking, ok, i dont have to pitch to him that much, I can get Montero to overswing, maybe i give up a double.
With Goldy, i think the pitcher is thinking, i need to try to get Upton out or else this next guy can take me deep.
I just dont think pitchers fear Montero like they are starting to with Goldy. (see Tim Lincecum) IF we have a Lefty in place for goldy for the game, then by all means slot Montero #4 and it’s still a pretty sound lineup. But I like Goldy at #4
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
That is a fair assestment.
And to my point above, right or wrong, it isn’t a case closed scenario we have. Would be huge to have a David Wright or Cuddyer type to protect JUP. Now, before anyone goes saying why these 2 are or are not the guys. I’m simply stating someone like that that we could either sign as a FA or trade for.
Cuddyer isn't exactly a fearsome cleanup bat...
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
agree and he's another righty and I would prefer a lefty in the mix
But that isn’’t my point. I think Miggy and Ryro regress next yr and we still don’t know what we have in Aaron Hill. I’ve seen this before. Teams have a great yr and bring back the exact same team and with the normal regression they don’t make the playoffs. I’ve also seen similar teams go out and make the moves necessary to ensure another playoff run. I trust KT though…he’s proven to be trustworthy.
i don't trust KT
i think there’s a good shot our players regress next year and we don’t make the playoffs
i just think our shot at making the playoffs next year is probably at under 25%
by blue bulldog on Nov 14, 2011 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
Hard to argue with this
Who on the team can we project “progression” rather than “regression?”
IPK – tough to project he’ll get better
Hudson – possibly a little
Collmenter – we’d take the same again next year in a heartbeat
Saunders – no way
Miley – maybe a little
Young pitchers replacing Saunders and Miley – Big maybe
Goldy – possibly
Hill – no better than what he gave us and definite downside
Drew – possibly
Roberts – no, he gave us his best last year
Upton – maybe a little
Young – maybe, but also downside
Parra – no, more downside
Miggy – not likely, regression candidate
Hernandez – more downside than upside
Putz – no
Rest of bullpen – possibly
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Nov 14, 2011 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
tbf
for Drew, you have to compare Drew plus whatever Bloomquist ended up giving us (though it’s hard to say that there will be much progression there, because of Drew’s injury)
and same, for Hill, it’s actually Hill vs. Hill + KJ last year, though again, i would be cautious to predict progression there as well
by blue bulldog on Nov 14, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Good points
I more inclined to think we’ll have possible progression at 2B than SS with that in mind.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Nov 14, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
Drastically underestimating upside with Upton and Parra
As well as with Goldschmidt, Drew, Hudson, Miley, and the young pitchers.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
Do you really think Parra has upside?
if so I’m not likely to agree.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Nov 14, 2011 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
He was 24 last year
He’s far from his peak years, particularly offensively.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
it doesn't matter enough
his BB%, K%, BABIP, ISO were all higher than career averages last year
given 50/50 odds, the likelihood he puts up more WAR in 2012 than in 2011 (2.8)….i think it’s pretty common sense what you would bet here
by blue bulldog on Nov 14, 2011 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
Come again?
K% was 16.6%, compared to an average of 17.9%.
BABIP might come down, but not if his LD% continues to steadily improve (18.3% in ‘09, 20.3% in ’10, 22.4% in ’11). He’s not a big fly ball guy, so his BABIP will always be relatively high, and if he keeps squaring balls up, there’s a real chance for a stud.
Given 50/50 odds, anybody who improved from one year to the next is likely to decline the following season, regardless of age. But that’s not unique to the D-backs. Again, I’m trying to talk about this as possible upside, and after everyone – including me – spent all of last off-season doubting Parra’s potential, I don’t think it’s particularly wise to keep doing so given that he’s just 24 and somehow keeps improving his peripheral rates from year to year.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
by higher
i meant better than career averages
everything was better than career average
by blue bulldog on Nov 14, 2011 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
but exactly
that’s my point easily summed up. most of the time, anybody who puts up a career years, you should bet on them regressing the next year.
a ton of our guys are going to regress next year. and we haven’t upgraded enough to compensate for it imo.
by blue bulldog on Nov 14, 2011 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
The odds for each individual player
Are tilted towards regression, but by no means is the entire team going to regress. That’s what I’m saying. The extremely pessimistic view is to look at it player-by-player at what’s “most likely,” but that’s incredibly misleading.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
About Parra
I did a quick B-R search of players since 1901 who have posted a >= .280 batting average, >= .330 OBP, >= .420 SLG, >= 20 fielding RAR, and minimum 1000 PA. Parra joined this club in 2011 and didn’t show up on the search.
There have been 19 other players in baseball history to do this: Link
Names: Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Robinson, Albert Pujols, Hank Aaron, Al Kaline, Willie Mays, Cal Ripken, Vada Pinson, Evan Longoria, Scott Rolen, Grady Sizemore, Troy Tulowitzki, Nick Markakis, Carl Yastrzemski, Carlos Beltran, Chet Lemon, Jose Reyes, George Brett, and Joe Mauer.
That’s it.
Bet against Parra all you want, but the guy has massive potential.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 15, 2011 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
the reason Parra doesn't show up
is because your search parameters are wrong
Parra’s career SLG is 400
also, if you only search people better than or equal to his career numbers, your overall pool is going to be skewed
i don’t know how to use B-R searches that well, but ideally, you’d want to look for players with minimum 1000 PA, age 23-25, 270-290 BA, 320-340 OBP, 390-410 SLG
by blue bulldog on Nov 15, 2011 12:11 AM EST up reply actions
Bleh.
Nice catch. My eyes are failing me tonight, it seems. Also, can’t get that specific in ranges. Sorry, just the way it is, have to look at the data to see if Parra’s close to the crowd or not. Here’s an updated search. Only new additions – outside of Parra – are Edgardo Alfonso, Ryne Sandberg, Tony Fernandez, and Willie Wilson.
Here’s a comp for ya:
Parra: .282/.331/.403, 22 Rfield
Sandberg: .282/.331/.414, 30 Rfield
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 15, 2011 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
So
You’re saying the Cubs are never going to hire Parra to manage for them.
"Never ignore a coincidence. Unless you're busy, in which case always ignore a coincidence."
Something like that,
Yeah. You got my point. :-)
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 15, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
Projecting the young pitchers
to outperform what Saunders gave us is questionable. Not so much versus Miley plus the balance of our #5 starters.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Nov 14, 2011 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
Upside =/= projecting
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
same as above with the pitchers
i feel very comfortable betting IPK’s ERA will be higher next year on a 50/50 basis
Hudson is harder to say. he was at 3.50 last year. still, i wouldn’t be comfortable betting 50/50 that Hudson’s ERA will be lower than 3.30
Collmenter + Duke (to get you the requisite 33 starts) last year amounted to a 4.09 ERA (only counting starting ERA). i think it’s probably a 50/50 tossup that Collmenter + Prospect (whatever to get us 33 starts) gets a 4 ERA higher or lower.
Saunders had a 3.7 ERA last year in 33 starts. i would be very comfortable betting 50/50 his ERA is higher next year.
that leaves us with an amalgam of 30 starts produced by the likes of Marquis/Enright/Galarraga/Parker/Miley/Owings vortex of suck. last year, in their 30 starts (only using Owings 4 starts numbers) they combined for a 5.57 ERA. this is where the potential for huge improvement comes.
the thing is, i’m not convinced our prospect next year is going to be so much better than that vortex of suck to smack out of the water the worse numbers from Saunders and IPK that we can expect next year.
by blue bulldog on Nov 14, 2011 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
And to further solidify your point
We have to have progression from the starting pitching. We were fortunate in catching the entire division on a down year. A repeat of our starters’ total performance will likely not get it done. Same for the hitting. Getting the exact same performance (for everything) is far from guaranteed, and even if we do get the same level of performance it might not be good enough to win the division if the other clubs make improvements.
Then there’s the fact that outside of the Drew injury we were relatively healthy all year. We have little contingency for a serious injury to anyone outside of the middle infield.
The failure to add an actual impact player to this roster who would have brought additional reliable production is a missed opportunity.
Some might question what position I might be referring to. I still think an opportunity is being missed in LF. I like Hill in the two hole and I like Roberts at leadoff. Another bopper in left would do wonders for this lineup and also be able to weather an injury to one of our 2-6 hitters. The loss of Hill, Upton, Goldie, Young or Miggy would be brutal. And on the positive side a lineup of Roberts, Hill, Upton, Miggy, Goldie, Bopper, Young and Drew could be downright scary.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Nov 14, 2011 7:45 PM EST up reply actions
Let me just lob in
That we can afford a chunk of regression, having won the division by a healthy margin, and the second-placed team were outscored by their opponents.
"We have to resist it. Do whatever you have to. Cross your fingers. Say a prayer. Think of a basket of kittens. But do not give in to the fear..."
by Jim McLennan on Nov 15, 2011 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Really?
You think we can afford a chunk of regression? I’d dare to say that better be a pretty small chunk. To expect the other clubs in the division to stand pat and be just as bad next year seems like wishful thinking. I’m more inclined to say we can afford a chunk of regression in some areas if we get some progression in others. It will need to be balancing.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Nov 15, 2011 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
Well
Colorado needs pitching. I’ll believe that they’ll get it when I see it.
San Francisco needs a lineup. With Melky Cabrera as big solution #1 and Beltran looking like he’s headed out of town, I’ll again believe that they’ll get it when I see it.
San Diego remains in rebuilding mode.
Our biggest threats, at least in my opinion, are the Dodgers now that McCourt is gone. Kemp probably will regress, but they have money they’re throwing around. Retaining their solid rotation top-3 of Kershaw/Kuroda/Lilly and adding another big-time/mid-rotation starter would give them great pitching, especially with Jansen at the back end and Eovaldi as a possibility for the #5 starter spot. Ellis was a nice pickup IMO, and should be an improvement. Gordon will be capable at least defensively. They’re absolutely stacked up-the-middle. Prince is not out of the realm of possibility, Ethier can still hit, and they really just need one more Cuddyer-like bat to be dangerous offensively, even w/o Prince.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 15, 2011 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
Agree with you on the Dodgers being the biggest threat
I was hoping McCourt would keep them hamstrung all winter, but it doesn’t seem to be working out that way.
"We have to resist it. Do whatever you have to. Cross your fingers. Say a prayer. Think of a basket of kittens. But do not give in to the fear..."
by Jim McLennan on Nov 15, 2011 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Dodgers seem like the biggest threat, at least as of now
Giants too though. i read an article where it showed that their actual run production, vs. their projected run production based on actual numbers of hits/walks/etc. was very low. they are going to naturally regress forward next year, even not including full seasons of Panda and Sanchez, and possibly a healthier Posey
by blue bulldog on Nov 15, 2011 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
We need to pray that Mark Cuban
doesn’t buy the Dodgers. He would turn them into Yankees West. The other thing to keep in mind is that after next year the collective bargaining agreement is going to make some substantial changes to the leagues by adding a playoff team and perhaps moving away from the whole division format.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Nov 17, 2011 4:02 AM EST up reply actions
We won the division by eight games
And that was over a team which was “lucky” to be above .500, and look like the 2007 D-backs, about to encounter 2008. I don’t expect the Dodgers and Giantsto stand pat – but they have to make up the ground, not us.
If you look at team age, the Dodgers and Giants (our two main rivals, I expect) should both see more decline due to age next year:
Hitters rank: Giants 2nd, Dodgers 3rd, D-backs 11th
Pitchers rank: Dodgers 6th, Giants 7th, D-backs 15th
They both have potential regression of their own to contend with, e.g. will Kemp and Kershaw be as good in 2012?
Average number of games won by the NL West champion in the past eight season = less than 90.
"We have to resist it. Do whatever you have to. Cross your fingers. Say a prayer. Think of a basket of kittens. But do not give in to the fear..."
by Jim McLennan on Nov 15, 2011 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
My heart wants to go with...
Jim’s half glass half full argument. I can’t put my finger on why my brain leans to the glass half empty argument. I guess maybe because it’s been proven very difficult to win the west back to back. A lot of stuff fell in place for us last year.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Nov 17, 2011 4:05 AM EST up reply actions
a couple of things
1) Tim Lincecum doesn’t fear Goldy. Tim Lincecum doesn’t fear anybody.
2) People fear Montero a lot more than people fear Goldy. At least for now. Don’t you remember when they deliberately walked Montero to get to Goldy? Even though that ploy backfired in that game, the opposing manager afterward said he thought it was the right move at the time, and still thought it was the right move after the game.
i think at least at the beginning of the year, we will just go Upton, Montero, Goldy 3/4/5
by blue bulldog on Nov 14, 2011 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
I just dont see it with Montero
When Montero overswings, it’s bad. its really bad, and he does it alot. Though it was a small sample, Goldy’s overswings were not near as bad as Montero. I also see Goldy as less likely to hit into a Double Play. With that being said.
Think of it like this as well beyond the hitting protion. Goldy has Great wheels for a big guy, This is why i see Montero at #5. Im not saying Goldy is gonna beat out a DP being turned, but I can see Him scoring from 1st on a Montero Double alot easier than Montero scoring from 1st on a Goldy Double.
This also can come into play later in the game like we saw in the Finals NLDS with Montero getting pinch ran for. And in turn, The next AB, that #4 hole had Henry Blanco protecting Upton.
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
i think the DP is probably getting overplayed
Miggy had 14 GIDP in 550 PA
small sample size, but Goldy had 4 GIDP in 180 PA. that’s not very different (comes out to like 12 GIDP given the same amount of PA as Miggy)
true, we saw that in NLDS Game 5 with Montero getting pinch run for. the solution to this problem, is to not pinch run for Montero. was not a good move at the time.
by blue bulldog on Nov 14, 2011 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
But how many runs
did we lose from Miggy having to hold up at 3rd on a double when ti was not a hit and run? Also, Goldy can steal a base WAY better than miggy could. This could help in bringing down Miggy’s GIDP.
We both have good points, and this is fun BTW
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
Just how many slugging 3B's are available?
"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi
by CaptainCanuck on Nov 15, 2011 4:41 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I was happy to see KJ
leave but I was skeptical of Hill. His performance in AZ during the final stretch, absolutely blew me away. Made me think KT was a miracle worker. I am excited to see that Hill and the Dbacks worked something out, but am mildly to intermediately concerned that HIll will return to his old ways . . . like he did after 2009.
by ShucksBoWalter on Nov 13, 2011 11:44 PM EST reply actions
So.....uh
does this mean Roberts might be more available?
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Nope.
Everyday 3B, just like last year.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 12:02 AM EST up reply actions
I figured.
/kicks dirt
/calls Ian Stewart back
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by Andrew Martin on Nov 14, 2011 12:03 AM EST up reply actions
Sorry bro
"I could have been king, but in my own way I am king. Hail to the king baby." Ash from Army of Darkness
Thanks *snif
Honestly, I’ve always had a secret thing for Hill (Rockies editors dig the long ball from like 3 years ago) and I hope he posts like a .900 OPS for you guys except when he’s playing against Colorado, during which his OPS will drop somewhere in the lower .500 range.
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by Andrew Martin on Nov 14, 2011 12:06 AM EST up reply actions
I would be perfectly okay with that
a .900 OPS would be pretty good for 150 or so games out of the season
Oh where oh where have my Dbacks gone? Oh where oh where could they be!
by imstillhungry95 on Nov 14, 2011 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
Hell,
If we could work out a deal where Hill has a .900 OPS for the rest of the season, I’d be completely fine with just letting him sit against the Rockies.
What's one more comeback, anyway?
by Zavada's Moustache on Nov 14, 2011 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
No kidding right?
Oh where oh where have my Dbacks gone? Oh where oh where could they be!
by imstillhungry95 on Nov 14, 2011 12:57 AM EST up reply actions
I'll sign on that dotted line.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
Speaking of which,
This is your friendly reminder that you could have turned Ian Stewart into a 24-year-old outfielder who put up 2.8 WAR last year.
What's one more comeback, anyway?
by Zavada's Moustache on Nov 14, 2011 12:31 AM EST up reply actions
Better than Gerardo Parra
Right?….
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
Speaking of Drew
My dad was at the NASCAR race today, and Stephen Drew was on stage for driver introductions. The report I was given by my dad was that he “bounded” up the stairs of the stage. Not sure what that means for his ability to play SS, but it can’t hurt, right?
Oh where oh where have my Dbacks gone? Oh where oh where could they be!
by imstillhungry95 on Nov 14, 2011 12:37 AM EST reply actions
Strange
But can’t hurt.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 12:52 AM EST up reply actions
That's what I was thinking
Oh where oh where have my Dbacks gone? Oh where oh where could they be!
by imstillhungry95 on Nov 14, 2011 12:56 AM EST up reply actions
Bounding
is good, if it didn’t hurt. But if he just had hernia surgery, I suspect that he felt something.
"The kingdoms of Experience, In the precious wind they rot, While paupers change possessions, Each one wishing for what the other has got, And the princess and the prince, Discuss what's real and what is not, It doesn't matter inside the Gates of Eden." B. Dylan
so......
someone explain to me why we didn’t wait until now
to sign McDonald and Bloomquist to two-year contracts? does KT really think these guys wouldn’t still be on the market in mid-November??
well SCOTT BORAS told KT.....
That Willie had a 2 year offer on the table for more money than he ended up signing for with AZ, so KT probably made a screwed….er…..shrewd move.
The worst major leaguer is better at baseball than I'll ever be at anything I ever do in my life.
by shoewizard on Nov 14, 2011 9:28 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
McDonald was b/c Bloomquist wasn't showing interest
Then Bloomquist was because the Giants showed interest.
At least that’s the impression the media has given. Towers wanted to fill the slot early, and the backup option showed the early interest to do so. Then the primary option came back into the picture, and KT deemed him worthy of signing as well.
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by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
you're still begging the question though
why did Towers “want to fill the slot early”?
by blue bulldog on Nov 14, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
To focus on other parts of the roster
That have a bigger impact in the team being successful next year? Like finding out whether or not Saunders or someone else will be the #3/#4 starter behind IPK/Huddy and alongside Collmenter? And maybe getting another ’pen arm?
The difference between McDonald for one year and $1.5MM and two years and $3MM really isn’t much, considering that bench players only make a difference of a few runs per year.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
if this were actually true
then KT might actually be a worse GM than i thought
you don’t need to sign someone like McDonald/Bloomquist first to figure out the rest of your roster. you should already have a plan in place as to the general range of money you are willing to allocate to all the different parts of the roster. and like you said, because the range of salaries for a player like McDonald/Bloomquist is so limited, the planning shouldn’t even be too difficult.
the “focus on other parts of the roster” part should not have anything to do with budget allocation, but only to wooing clients. thus, it’s obviously more important to prioritize wooing clients who have less likely chance at being available at a later date.
put a different way, you would rather be in a position where you got your first choice starting 2B, and maybe only your second or third choice backup infielder, than to be in a position where you got your first choice backup infielder, and maybe only your second or third choice starting 2B
by blue bulldog on Nov 14, 2011 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
Towers had an offer out to Hill weeks ago
It’s not like he hadn’t spent any time working on that hole.
It’s not the allocation of budget, but the allocation of time in accordance to the timing of the markets. The starting pitching and middle relief markets simply don’t settle until around the time of the Winter Meetings – this isn’t some sort of new phenomenon to see most free agent starters waiting until December to see what kinds of offers they collect at Nashville (or Orlando in years past). The only guys in those markets who sign early are guys like Papelbon who are egregiously overpaid or Sabathia who was pretty much a lock to return to NY from the start.
If we’re going to immerse ourselves in those markets, it’s best to do so at those times when you can actually get a legitimate feel for what kind of salaries and years you’ll be looking at, so Towers was simply taking care of his other priorities first before the Winter Meetings time hit, thus giving him the ability to spend his time during the Winter Meetings worrying about his rotation and his bullpen rather than worrying about whether or not McDonald or Bloomquist are entertaining offers from other teams and thinking of going elsewhere. Because that’s the time he can spend actually getting a deal done with a starting pitcher or reliever.
Wooing starters and relievers in October doesn’t matter, because they just don’t sign until December unless you give them an absurd premium over what they’re really worth.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
you're missing the point
you shouldn’t ever need to spend time during Winter Meetings worrying about whether or not McDonald or Bloomquist are entertaining offers from other teams, and if you are, then you are not a good GM. again, the difference between your first choice backup infielder and second or third choice backup infielder should not be a big deal.
“If we’re going to immerse ourselves in those markets, it’s best to do so at those times when you can actually get a legitimate feel for what kind of salaries and years you’ll be looking at”. this is exactly what allocation of budget is about.
guys like McDonald/Bloomquist have a very limited range of possible salaries. this isn’t like, you wanting to offer a guy $6 million per year, versus him only willing to accept $10 million per year. in other words, your projected salary has minimal difference from the player’s eventual acceptance salary. so just estimate. if you want one FA backup infielder, then go into the Winter Meetings knowing you have $2 million less to spend. if you want two FA backup infielders, then go into the Winter Meetings knowing you have $4 million less to spend.
the whole point is….you don’t need to spend the money, to have a good, projected estimate. and the benefit of not spending, is that you retain flexibility to re-prioritize, as more information starts flowing during the Winter Meetings.
by blue bulldog on Nov 14, 2011 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
So Towers should have spent this time twiddling his thumbs and waiting for the Meetings?
No, he went out and plugged some of his holes at rates he was comfortable with. Argue with the contracts all you want, but he’s clearly okay with the terms he signed off on and he was able to allocate this pre-Meetings time to something functional.
Arizona is probably going to have more money available this off-season that it will ultimately spend, at least in my opinion. With how low our payroll was last year and how many pieces are coming off the books without needing to be replaced (Duke, Galarraga, Mora, Heilman, Nady, Marquis), the extra playoff revenue and projections for increased attendance in 2012 will give the D-backs the money they need to spend on whatever parts they so choose to target.
The club’s philosophy seems to be targeting mid-tier free agents for the holes they have, preferably on short-term deals, so it’s not like we’re losing out on the chance to sign C.J. Wilson to a seven-year deal to join the rotation by signing Bloomquist and McDonald. That’s just bogus. Even after these new contracts, we have the ability to go out and add another starter and another reliever, and because Saunders is controlled we can reasonably estimate that combined cost. I’m sure Towers has taken that into account.
So even if the difference between first and third choice in backup infielder is minimal, the difference between waiting to sign the third choice and signing the first choice now is equally minimal, if not more so. It’s not like these contracts have come at a cost of flexibility.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
If it means getting better players than Bloomquist and McDonald,
then yes, Mr. Towers, twiddle your thumbs away.
I just don’t get why it needed to be done quickly just for the heck of getting it done quickly. If he put it aside now just so he doesn’t have to deal with having to plug roster spots all at the same time, I find that to be a very big problem.
"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi
by CaptainCanuck on Nov 15, 2011 4:59 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
For the bench?
I think they’re about as solid as you’re going to find in someone who’s willing to be a full-time bench player.
And that whole thread was trying to explain why he did it this early…
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 15, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
So,
We signed Willie Bloomquist to an above-market deal, to prevent our division rivals from doing the exact same thing? Somehow, this explanation is less comforting than just assuming that Towers is a smart guy with a veteran fetish…
What's one more comeback, anyway?
by Zavada's Moustache on Nov 14, 2011 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly
If the Giants wanted to throw away too much money on a player, by all means, let them do so. Let them waste their cash. Given that Arizona is constantly pleading poverty, I still do not get the Bloomquist signing. I don’t care how much of a mancrush Hall has on him. Giving two aging back-up SS above-market, multi-year deals is madness.
If KT gave his second choice the contract because his first choice wasn’t showing interest, fine. Just go forward with your second choice. It’s not like there’s a chasm between the abilities of Bloomquist and MacDonald. Bloomquist is not a legit starting SS, so even thinking Drew might not be healthy doesn’t justify this, IMO. They would have been fine with JMac as the back-up SS. If Drew is a concern, go get a starter and move him to 2B, instead of overpaying for two back-up SS. As far as I’m concerned, Willie should have been told that he missed the freakin’ boat. Too bad, so sad, go to SF. Instead, the “mid-market” D’Backs wasted money on a guy who was not needed. I haven’t been a KT basher, but the Bloomquist situation is making me rethink my position.
by azshadowwalker on Nov 14, 2011 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
Everything about this.
What's one more comeback, anyway?
by Zavada's Moustache on Nov 14, 2011 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
based on last year's salary commitments
we’re starting to trend towards “small-market” as opposed to “mid-market” now….
this makes me uber-sad :(
by blue bulldog on Nov 14, 2011 6:57 PM EST up reply actions
You mean a one-year trend
After tearing down the team mid-2010 (i.e. Haren, Jackson, which is why the Opening Day payroll for 2010 shouldn’t be directly compared to the 2011 OD payroll)? Not much of a trend.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 8:15 PM EST up reply actions
sure
but it doesn’t seem like we’ll be increasing payroll this year
by blue bulldog on Nov 14, 2011 8:39 PM EST up reply actions
Interest in Buehrle and Kuroda doesn't sound like we're interested in raising payroll?
With arb raises, that sounds like raising payroll to me.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
i won't believe it until we see it
Cot’s has us at $29 million in commitments
Assume we non-tender Saunders (we’re not getting a SP anyway without non-tendering Saunders) and MLBTR has our Arb eligibles at $10 million. We’ve filled out all our position player holes by signing Hill/McDonald/Bloomquist for $9 million.
So that’s a total of $48 million in projected salary next year. Last year, salary commitments were at $56 million, though arguably higher, as much of our major league budget was devoted to extra money in the draft, which will likely not be used this year.
What are we going to do to increase payroll? A SP for around $10 million? That would put us at around $58 million, which isn’t even in line with inflation.
I won’t consider it “an increase in payroll” unless we break $65 million, which is where we were at back in 2008.
And if we get to around $65 million, I’ll actually probably be pretty pissed that we didn’t go and spend that money on Reyes. Especially since it sounds like he’s going to sign for a five-year deal.
by blue bulldog on Nov 14, 2011 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
Well that's silly
You want the payroll to jump $8MM? Isn’t that a bit extreme? Let’s make sure the team builds up a fanbase, no?
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
not silly at all
most teams see significant payroll jumps when they reach the postseason. we saw a significant (14 million) pay-jump after 2007 playoffs. Phillies payroll plateau’d for four years, until 2007, the first year they made the playoffs, and have consistently increased payroll each year after that. Rockies significantly increased payroll after they made the playoffs. so did the Giants.
not only that, but our debt financing cost dropping to zero means we should have a lot more spare cash around
by blue bulldog on Nov 15, 2011 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
No reason to blow it in one off-season
If there aren’t holes to be filled by guys we like. With significant raises due over the coming years to Kennedy, Hudson, Montero, Upton, Young, and Parra, there’s reason to be hesitant.
Also, we’re showing interest in a bevy of FAs who look like they’ll command eight-figure salaries: guys like Buehrle, Kuroda, and Oswalt.
Finally, isn’t it remotely possible that the D-backs just don’t like Reyes or believe he’ll be able to stay healthy/productive for the full length of the contract?
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 15, 2011 12:30 AM EST up reply actions
money into SP
Why would we go after Buehrle or Kuroda when we have their equivalent on the farm? And for a fraction on the cost.
Meanwhile, we had an actual hole on offense an we’ve patched it with a few spare parts.
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
by njjohn on Nov 15, 2011 10:35 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
We'll be lucky
If one of our prospects wind up as solid big-league starters who are equivalent of Buehrle, and if two of them end up as starters at all.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 15, 2011 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
no
prospects don’t fail as often as that
not when they are as good as Bauer/Skaggs/Parker
2009 Top 25 pitching prospects: Price, Hanson, Anderson, Bumgarner, Cahill, Porcello, Tillman, Matusz.
That ranges from elite (Price, Hanson, Bumgarner) to useful (Cahill, Anderson, Porcello) to bust (Tillman, Matusz). And you can argue, that the busts were unduly burdened by having to face the insane bats in the AL East.
It would be completely unsurprising to me if one of our pitching prospects ended up putting numbers better than Buehrle next year, and it’s quite possible two of our prospects put up numbers better than Buehrle next year.
by blue bulldog on Nov 15, 2011 11:14 PM EST up reply actions
There's debate
As to whether or not our guys are really as good as Sickels says they are in his preliminary rankings…
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 15, 2011 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
so you'd
rather take the Buehrle/Kuroda side of that bet, -$8M?
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
by njjohn on Nov 16, 2011 4:53 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
For 2012?
Yeah, sure.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 16, 2011 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
wait
you’re saying none of our three pitching prospects (Bauer Skaggs Parker) are going to be better than Buehrle or Kuroda, given a 1.5 WAR headstart?
by blue bulldog on Nov 16, 2011 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
Ehh, not exactly
I’m saying that the second-best of them wouldn’t be more valuable than Buehrle/Kuroda, since that’s who Buehrle/Kuroda will be replacing. It’s completely hypothetical, sadly.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 16, 2011 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
second?
Are you eliminating Collmenter from the mix?
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
by njjohn on Nov 17, 2011 11:30 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Eliminating Saunders
IPK, Hudson, Collmenter then either Buehrle/Kuroda + 1 prospect or 2 prospects.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 18, 2011 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with this
My only caveat is the big difference in the number of innings a Buehrle or Kuroda would give compared to our young guys and the kind of pressure that puts on the bullpen.
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
by sonic barracuda on Nov 17, 2011 4:08 AM EST up reply actions
so well said.
"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." Yogi Berra
by njjohn on Nov 14, 2011 8:24 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
We wanted our guy
And the overpay fit into the budget. Again, I dislike the deal given the McDonald signing, just trying to understand the thought process and I think that’s what it is.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 14, 2011 8:13 PM EST up reply actions
Good move.
A risky one, but its got the potential to pay big dividends.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Nov 14, 2011 9:47 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Happy
That Hill will be coming back. i think he is gonna have a 2009 esque year.
Freeze it..and make a popsicle
we can only hope...
if he has a 2009 esque year along with a healthy Drew, this lineup is solid from top to bottom. I just hope that Parra, Ryro and Miggy do not regress offensively or defensively. I’m also excited to see what happens with the rotation, I don’t recall a team that has had so many outstanding pitching prospects. And to think, Huddy and Kennedy are still just pups themselves… this could be the making of a top NL team for years to come.
If Parra regresses...
it would be on offense. His defense this season was not dramatically different than his defense last season. He just got more playing time.
by azshadowwalker on Nov 14, 2011 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
hahahahaha jk jk
im juss bored in marine ecology….DEUCES
Glad you explained
Though I use the word “explained” in its loosest possible sense. I was expecting to find an advert for handbags at the end of all that, and was readying to send you an email letting you know your account had been hacked.
However, still hidden, as ridiculously off-topic.
"We have to resist it. Do whatever you have to. Cross your fingers. Say a prayer. Think of a basket of kittens. But do not give in to the fear..."
by Jim McLennan on Nov 14, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
rumors of him having talks with Tony Gwynn Sr...
Another veteran bench bat:)
No way
Gwynn actually had an amazing career. KT only signs flameouts and utility guys to fill his quota of veteran presence.
by SenSurround on Nov 14, 2011 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
Then again
Gwynn could probably still hit .320 in this league, so that may actually be a good signing haha
A Hill-acious signing.
"Hey, why don't you people watch the game?"-my mom after viewing a wave going around Chase Field.
by Reynolds rapper on Nov 14, 2011 1:00 PM EST reply actions
Another season of hearing "Dirt Road Anthem" when he comes to bat is just fine for me :)
I got sprayed by Ryan Roberts!!!
I hope he returns to his old form for you guys
Hopefully a change in scenery, the big option years not weighing him, allow him to return to his old form, or even close to it.
Really wanted him back, hope you guys enjoy him.
Good luck next year
Rent this for cheap!!
Good news, I guess
I am very glad we didn’t have to try to find someone to play 3rd. That idea really scared me.
I was definitely skeptical when Hill was traded here. But, then I was hugely impressed by what he did when he got here. I am now mildly concerned that he will regress back into the 2010 Hill. Oh well. I guess we’ll find out.
I'm OK with it
Except I have to ask, is a two win player over two years really worth $10MM? I get that that the market pays that much per win, but would it really apply to bench player caliber guys since there’s so many of them?
Also, I don’t agree with using market value to decide how much you should pay your players. You should always try to pay guys as much below that, and this holds even truer to a team like Arizona. If Aaron Hill becomes a bench guy throughout this deal, I’m not comfortable with calling this a fair deal.
"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi
by CaptainCanuck on Nov 15, 2011 4:52 AM EST via mobile reply actions
WAR is no longer a moneyball stat
Now WAR is costly and pointless.
"Hey, why don't you people watch the game?"-my mom after viewing a wave going around Chase Field.
by Reynolds rapper on Nov 15, 2011 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Not entirely true
Different aspects of WAR are priced differently. Relief pitching WAR seems to be priced relatively high, whereas WAR from defense still seems to be rather underpriced, largely because WAR from defense is so unstable that it’s hard to get a true idea of what is value and what is fluctuation.
Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Nov 15, 2011 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
I'm talking about the universal stat that binds them all.
But then again based on my thoughts about Philosophy of Science and mathematical modeling theory, I’m fond of stats that count things that are directly observable.
Weirdly enough, because HR and RBI don’t register as well on bWAR as other stats, the next big thing is going to be to pick on those under-represented stats to bargain hunt.
"Hey, why don't you people watch the game?"-my mom after viewing a wave going around Chase Field.
by Reynolds rapper on Nov 15, 2011 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
Very good news
Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan
Phoenix Suns, Arizona Diamondbacks, Phoenix Coyotes, Arizona Rattlers fan
[I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].
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