2012 Opening Day Roster Prediction

It's way to early to give a good prediction. We haven't heard from KT yet. But........

Lineup
1. LF Parra
2. 2B Roberts
3.RF Upton
4.3B Aramis Ramirez ( signs for 2 years 16 Million)
5.C Montero
6.1B Goldschmidt
7.CF Young
8.SS Drew
I doubt we sign Ramirez but whatever. It would be nice to have another .280- 20 HR bat in the lineup. I don’t think Towers will give Hill 8 mill, but I would be pleasantly surprised if he did( I realize that could back fire).

Rotation
1.Kennedy
2.Hudson
3.Parker
4.Collmenter
5.Saunders

I think Saunders could have a really good season. It’s his contract year and this is probably his only chance to get a multi year deal after 2012.

Pen
9th-Putz
8th-Hernandez
7th-Shaw
other dudes- Paterson,Ziegler, Mickolio, and Miley.
I’m still convinced Mickolio can be really good. He’s 6’9 with a mid 90’s fastball, dude has a ton of potential.

Bench

Just bring them all back for old time’s sake. Even naked lunch.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 9, 2011 1:39 AM EDT reply actions

i'm a little confused

you would rather us sign Hill for $8 million, than sign Aramis Ramirez for $8 million? with his age, Ramirez won’t be able to sign for more than 2 years/$20 million (remember, he was complete crap just a year ago), and honestly, i find that preferable to Hill at $8 million

the problem with any solution where we use Ramirez or trade for Wright, is that this puts even more pressure on Drew to regain his health and be the above-average defender at SS prior to the injury. i just feel very very uncomfortable banking on that. between signing Ramirez or trading for Wright though, i’m fairly ambivalent (despite Ramirez’s abysmal ability to take a walk…which makes his triple slash uncomfortably dependent on BABIP). i could actually really see KT make a play for Ramirez.

i’m still hoping against hope that we somehow convince the Nats that their window to compete does not start this year. you have to still expect the Phillies to be atop the NL East next year right? if we can somehow convince the Nats that they can’t compete this year, and they don’t think they’ll be able to sign Zimm to an extension, then we could make an offer centered around Parker (#40-50 prospect), Pollock (#110-120 prospect), and a couple of other prospects (#150-200 prospects).

as for Saunders, we should try to find a contender in the AL willing to take him. maybe trade him to Boston (they seem to like collecting ex-Angels), though i’m not optimistic Boston will buy into Saunders’s numbers. maybe Saunders and a prospect like Corbin to get Jed Lowrie (it sounds to me like the Red Sox are planning on picking up Scutaro’s option)?

Dayton Moore would probably be willing to trade for Saunders though, even though they aren’t really contending. doubt we could get something amazing back, but a Tier 2 prospect in the KC system would not be bad for one-year’s worth of Saunders. we could then start Miley off in the rotation, and promote Skaggs there after a couple of months. we could then use the money we save on Saunders to try to pay for the 3B or SS or 2B that we want, especially if we go after a guy like Ramirez or Wright.

hm okay, never mind. i just realized i’m being overly optimistic about Ramirez. i forgot that he’s turning down a $16 million option to rejoin the Cubs. that puts any deal with Ramirez in FA closer to the 3 year/$25-30 million range, which doesn’t really make sense for our club. i dunno.

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 3:37 AM EDT up reply actions

I think Ramirez could be a very good offensive player in our lineup and at Chase field.

I would only offer him 8-9 million though. Basically just use the money they saved from declining Hill’s option. If he wants more than that, than screw it. I think it’s a moot point anyways, because I’m sure somebody like the Phillies or Angels will overpay greatly for him.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 9, 2011 4:12 AM EDT up reply actions

2011 regular season offensive ranks...

D’Backs were top 5 in runs, slugging, OPS, TB, XBH and broke the record for homers in a 5 game playoff series. Do we really need Aramis Ramirez’ bat for 8-9 mil a year?

by Husk on Oct 9, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Protection

for Upton would be pretty nice, though…

Goldy Watch: 48 games, .250/.333/.474

by Jdub220 on Oct 13, 2011 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions

I've a feeling we'll decline Hill's option at $8 million

And sign him for less. Most things I’ve heard indicate he loves it here in Arizona and wants to stay. He’d be very lucky to get $8 million as a free agent after seasons of 78 and 76 OPS+.

Pretty sure someone will offer Ramirez more than that – even his “complete crap” year, he still posted a better OPS than the average NL second-baseman (.745 vs. .720), and since 2004 he has an .892 OPS, with .871 last year.

"We have to resist it. Do whatever you have to. Cross your fingers. Say a prayer. Think of a basket of kittens. But do not give in to the fear..."

by Jim McLennan on Oct 9, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Ramirez is a 3B though

was the avg 3B OPS that bad?

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions

.752

Not enormously different.

"We have to resist it. Do whatever you have to. Cross your fingers. Say a prayer. Think of a basket of kittens. But do not give in to the fear..."

by Jim McLennan on Oct 9, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

You're just chomping at the bit to get rid of Saunders

And my take on your comment is this:

Jed Lowrie is injury-prone…you want someone who’s hurt?

Aramis Ramirez…when we have RYRO? Are you NUTS?

I got sprayed by Ryan Roberts!!!

by Rockkstarr12 on Oct 9, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions

It's being made out to sound like bb and I don't like Joe

And that we would want nothing more than to get him away from the team because we think he’s a truly horrible player and person. That’s not it at all. By all accounts, he’s a truly good guy (nominated for an MLB service award, handled the little “Spring Training competition” thing well, seems very laid-back and approachable), and has been a good pitcher for us this year.

What makes the possibility of trading Saunders worth exploring and discussing is the fact that he has one year of control left (we would lose him in free agency after 2012), will be paid handsomely in 2012 (upwards of $8.5MM), and we have three elite pitching prospects who have spent 2011 in the upper levels of the minors. Saunders has value, but his value is probably greater to other teams than it is to us, which means that it makes sense for us to explore what other teams could give us that would be more valuable to us than Saunders. It’s not a bash of Joe and it’s not a burning desire to get him off the team, it’s just trying to look at it from a businesslike perspective because that’s the way that front offices have to look at it.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

8.5 million for Joe Saunders!?

I was thinking more like 7 million, tops. If he is going to cost that much, then I don’t know if it’s worth it. They’ll probably bring him back though. You know how Kevin Towers feels about inning eaters. And Joe Saunders is a pretty good number 5 starter, if you don’t think about the 7-8 million you’re paying him.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 9, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions

i think $8.5 million is on the high side

i think $7-8 million is probably a reasonable estimate for Saunders next year

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Anything over 5 mil is too much for Saunders

by Husk on Oct 9, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

No, it's perfectly reasonable.

$3.7MM in ‘10, $5.5MM in ’11. If he earned a jump of $1.8MM by putting up a 4.47 ERA and 9-17 record in 203.1 innings, what kind of raise do you think he’ll get for a 3.69 ERA and 12-13 record in 212 innings? $7MM would mean he gets a smaller raise in 2012 than he did in 2011, which is ridiculous. $8-8.5MM is the range he’ll probably land in, a raise of $2.5MM-$3MM, maybe dipping into the $7.5MM-$8MM range if his agent low-balls Joe.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions

hm

you might be right

$7 million is probably too low. we’re probably looking in the $7.5-8.5 million range. he will be similar to Danks, and whatever Danks ends up getting is what he will probably settle for.

judges would also probably look towards similar contracts of players this past year. ironically, Edwin Jackson could drive up the price of Saunder’s arbitration, since he was paid $8.75 million, in what was a bought out Arb 3 year, whereas Saunders’s ERA and W-L% has been a lot better than EJax.

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions

money money money

guys like Saunders eat innings and for the most part, keep you in ballgames. No one is saying he’s Bob Gibson, but he’s a very nice insurance policy to have in case someone like Collmenter, Hudson or Kennedy gets hurt or has trouble continuing to progress, same could be said for Miley or Parker not being quite ready enough or being overwhelmed because being is a lot different than filling in. Injuries happen and game plans have to be fluid, hence why he (Saunders) may have more trade value during the season rather than the offseason.

As for discussions about other 3b options, I actually think chemistry matters and right now, the infield chemistry appears to be a work in progress, guys like Hill and Roberts appear to “fit” this team and as such, I think that’s why we see that this squad is often more than the sum of its individual parts. Lots of questions remain naturally. Can Roberts continue to produce, will Hill drop back into his old bad habits, will Drew recover fully, if so, how will he work with Hill or someone else? can Goldschmidt continue to improve his defense?

I keep hearing about guys like Wright and Ramirez being tossed about, but are they simply throwing cash at a non-problem for which we already have a “solution” for? I.e. Hill and Roberts? Isn’t the money that can be used to pay for Hill less than what it would cost to lure Ramirez or Wright and not cost us a single prospect? If we’re gonna spend cash, I could see it being used on more veteran bullpen arms and even then, I would almost be reluctant to do so, I really like how the roster sits now, a nice blend of young veterans, a few selected old guys and a whole lotta youth. If something happens, then sure, spend the cash, but is it really necessary to do so right now considering how this team, in its current makeup, has been performing?

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on Oct 10, 2011 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions

I seem to recall San Francisco's 2010 roster strategy

Of veterans everywhere and great pitching working well for them that year. I also seem to recall them sticking with that plan last off-season and at this year’s trade deadline. Finally, I seem to recall that plan being the reason for their demise in 2011.

It’s always necessary to do things to make the team better. The moment you’re content with your roster construction will be the moment you start dropping in the standings.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 10, 2011 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions

+1

i was going to use this exact same analogy

just thinking about picking up Aaron Hill’s option makes me think of Aubrey Huff’s complete suckitude this year

by blue bulldog on Oct 10, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions

I would personally

Try to get an arb compensation pick and move on. Just too risky for a team that wants to contend again in 2012. But I’d be lying if I said that Hill’s ability to spray line drives all over the place didn’t impress me in his brief stint with us this year.

Either position is certainly justifiable, but letting Hill move on is the more conservative choice.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 10, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

this strategy has also worked really well for the Red Sox and the Yankees…….

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on Oct 10, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions

We are not the Yankees (thank God)

The Yankees don’t have a “Hill” on the roster that they could upgrade through trade or free agency. If they did, they would.

Wright and Ramirez should be so much better than Hill that it makes a significant impact on the lineup. Just because we have a guy who can play the position, doesn’t mean they should be, or that we at least shouldn’t be looking at the possible upgrades.

I loved the team this year, but complacency won’t get us to the next level. We’ve got some great arms about to join the club but I think we could really use a bat to pair with Upton. How much of the division series was about how we would handle the Fielder/Braun duo. As soon as those guys made an out, I was already calculating when they would come back up and who might be pitching then and how we would slip best them without the game getting away from us. A post season team needs to have some threat in the middle of the lineup there that Goldie, Young and Montero are just not big enough to fill right now.

Money will be a bit tight this off-season and I agree with you about the need to stay fluid. If I were in charge I’d be out there looking for the biggest upgrade we could make at 2b, 3b or (I know this is sacrilege) possibly LF (Parra is at his height, trade-wise). If nothing significant is available on our terms then go with the in-house guys, but I think what we saw this year was close to a best-case scenario with the bats.

by Counsellmember on Oct 10, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions

no, but the Yankkees and the BoSox

perform using the same business model that Dan and BB propose up above. namely, upgrade players if there’s an upgrade to be had, regardless of how that impacts the rest of the team. Both those guys trashed the KJ/Hill trade, no possible way it could work, we’re trashing our future by throwing away a potential comp pick. Then Hill shows up, takes well to the new environment and the new scenery and is renewed as a player. Now we’re in a rush to kick his fanny out the door because he doesn’t fit the moneyball business model that they’ve envisioned for the Dbacks. Gee whiz… the numbers, they lied.

Hey, decline Hill’s option, look at resigning him for a cheaper price, that’s okay too, I just have a hard time tossing away functioning pieces of a working ballclub until they stop functioning properly.

Wright has been declining the last three years (when he was really really good!) so we’re expecting him to exceed his 2011 numbers and reverse the trend because…..

he’s no longer an injury concern… right? Maybe the elixir that we gave Hill will work on him too… sure its possible…and if we sign him, hopeful.

Ramirez is 34….. posted very acceptable numbers throughout his career, yet, based on the speculation here, he would cost more and we’d move Roberts over to 2nd and everyone will be happy with the new offensive juggernaut assembled, warm fuzzy feelings of team chemistry be damned and who knows, maybe he would be an upgrade and he fits seamlessly into the team.

so we’re out a few million more when the dust settles plus whatever prospects were considered expendable and maybe we have a better club, but at least we’re trying

and yes, the Giants strategy was sucking ass right up until Posey got hurt on May 26, that’s why they were four games up in the standings at that time and held the lead up thru the beginning of August. Was Posey the difference? I don’t know, what I do know is that the Giants FO didn’t do anything of significance to replace his bat in the lineup until Beltran showed up (unless you count Keppinger, who I thought was a counter to the injury to Sanchez). I don’t want to take bets that the DBacks win the division without the Giants FO handling of Posey’s absence from the lineup

what I am suggesting is that this team was a work in progress all the way up until the end of August, we haven’t even had a chance to see THIS team play full time yet, and it’s still lacking the return of Stephen Drew or the ascension of one or two of team’s three prized pitching prospects. Who knows what next year brings, maybe Goldschmidt continues to develop to become a bigger threat to protect Upton, maybe he finds that major league pitching is beyond his skill set. Who knows what else may happen, good or bad, does Roberts continue to grow as his confidence does? Does Young thrive being a complementary player and stop pressing at the plate? Does Parra continue to grow? Do all of these guys regress into being the 2011 Padres?

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on Oct 10, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Where on earth did I say

“Regardless of how that impacts the rest of the team”? Isn’t the idea of an improvement to make the entire team better?

We’re commenters on a blog. Our opinions are driven by numbers because we don’t have scouting reports. However, I should remind you that numerous people who DID have scouting reports ALSO bashed the trade. Hill’s success here can be credited to the D-backs’ scouts seeing something in him that few others did. Great job by them, that’s why they have their jobs and why their decisions are typically more informed than those of the pundits who don’t have the resources they have. This isn’t news to anybody, but it also doesn’t mean we shouldn’t bother sharing our opinions. This place would be pretty boring without those opinions, IMO.

However, you don’t have any of those resources available either, so while we choose to try to use the data we have at our hands in order to drive our opinions, you “throwing away the numbers” and the “moneyball” (puh-lease) philosophies and relying on… the numbers that Hill put up in Arizona. Awfully contradictory, no?

Good grief, I’m not trying to throw the guy away. I don’t like going after A-Ram, I’m lukewarm about going after Wright, and I’ve suggested numerous times that it might not be a bad idea to try to re-up Hill at a low cost. However, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with always looking for ways to improve and trying to find other, creative ways to fill a hole. The moment you stop looking for ways to make your team better and simply default to the simplest option, you stop getting better. That doesn’t mean you ignore the simplest option, it just means you never stop looking. Criticizing people for brainstorming alternative solutions is counterproductive.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 10, 2011 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

bull and

The team had hardly deplaned from Milwaukee before you guys had already started your team makeover assessments. Nice to see you both backpedalling so frantically since the Hill trade worked out, sometimes it really is about the players.

I am also a commenter on a blog, my observations come from actually watching the team and having played the game for the better part of 35 years and spending my entire youth, throwing to the cutoff man and turning two. You guys try to explain baseball as a series of statistical analysis as if all there is to know about baseball can be explained by the proper interpretation of fWAR, I keep trying to tell you guys that baseball is actually played by people and as such, it can frequently defy mathematical expression.

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on Oct 10, 2011 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions

lol

i love the “i’ve spent a bajillion years in baseball so i automatically know more than you” argument

let me ask you this, when was the last time you saw someone who was actually good at playing baseball end up the GM of a baseball team?

Theo Epstein was a Yale grad who went to law school for a JD and had a love for baseball, so he chose to work in the industry

Jon Daniels was one of the youngest GM’s around and his bread and butter was statistical analysis

Andrew Friedman was a finance major who worked for a number of years at Bear Stearns before becoming a GM

last i checked, the Red Sox, Rangers, and Rays are three of the most successful franchises around. on top of that, they operate in three completely different markets (rich, middle, poor)

i hate to break it to you, but the best GM’s in baseball aren’t guys who have “spent the better part of 35 years” in the game. it’s guys who bring other skillsets to the table (legal, statistical, economic)

by blue bulldog on Oct 10, 2011 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Randy Bush

Was a pretty decent player.

Wear your own fur.

by Marc Fournier on Oct 10, 2011 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions

What should we have done instead?

Discuss how we wanted the exact same team to come back in 2012 with no changes, because our season ended in a festival of rainbows and sunshine? It was a great year, but for goodness’ sake, man, it’s as if you think discussion about changing the ballclub in any way is a sin. We’re not suggesting things that this team absolutely has to do to be competitive again, we’re suggesting random ideas that pop into our minds because it’s interesting to us. If that offends you, then feel free to ignore our comments. Nobody’s forcing you to read them.

1) You apparently have no idea how I analyze players, because that one-dimensional caricature of me you have developed in your mind is very much not the case.
2) “It can frequently defy mathematical expression” – I read this phrase a lot from people who don’t bother to learn about the philosophies of Sabermetrics, and it truly annoys me. Whether you use wRC+ and FIP or you use runs, RBI, and Win-Loss records (both for a pitcher or for a team), EVERYBODY uses numbers to represent the game. Yes, you too. Unless, of course, you ignored the team’s record all season long and didn’t bother to look at the division standings or the playoff race at any point of the year.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 10, 2011 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow, where do I even begin with this?

Business model – First of all, we would never propose using the same business model as the Yankees or BoSox. Maybe my suggestion of signing Jose Reyes comes close to something similar to what the Yankees or BoSox would do, but I haven’t seen Dan seriously suggest anything close to their business model. And what the heck does “upgrade players if there’s an upgrade to be had, regardless of how that impacts the rest of the team” even mean? Do you realize that every team in baseball wants to upgrade players if there’s an upgrade to be had. It’s not like some teams want to pick up players that would be a downgrade. If you can improve your team, given whatever financial constraints you wish to set, then you go out and improve your team. This isn’t a Yankees BoSox Business Model TM.

KJ/Hill trade – Let me tell you a story. There was a team in the NL West. They desperately needed a middle infielder because their team’s middle infielder wasn’t performing. They looked towards the AL, and because they were somewhat old-school (whatever the hell that means) they wanted to find a guy who was a veteran, had success in the past, and everyone knew would be a great fit in the clubhouse. The guy they found was struggling tremendously, but hey, the front office thought that the player just needed a change of scenery, and he’d be valuable again.

Scenario A: Player A comes over, proceeds to tear it up, and helps his team to a playoff berth.

Scenario B: Player B comes over, ends up actually performing even worse than when he was in the AL, and his team misses the playoffs.

Player A is Aaron Hill. Player B is Orlando Cabrera.

But wait, how on Earth did two teams, with exactly the same rationale, go out and make similar acquisitions of struggling infielders, lead to such incredibly different results?

Shit happens. Some times you get lucky. Some times you get extremely unlucky. I’m of the opinion that there’s no need for us to roll the dice on Aaron Hill again, especially since we have the money to spend on or trade for a better option. Heck, I’d be willing to give you 50/50 odds regardless of where Aaron Hill plays next year, that his offense will be below league average.

Giants strategy – If you don’t realize that the Giants strategy was sucking ass, then I don’t know what to say to you. You seem to have completely forgotten that the Giants were supposed to destroy our division this year, the same way the Phillies dominated their division. Even more so once the Rockies were out of the running due to injuries. Yet, despite an absurdly talented roster with the likes of Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong in the rotation and Sandoval and Posey in the lineup, they weren’t destroying the division. Why? To a large extent, it’s because they were stupid and signed Huff to a huge contract last year. As an extension, they were complete idiots in the past and signed massive contracts to the likes of Aaron Rowand and Barry Zito. They have a $120 million budget to work with, yet they couldn’t even out-compete a team with a $50 million budget. So yeah, the Giants strategy really sucks ass, and if we want to suck ass (without the benefit of gobloads of money to bail us out), we can emulate them as much as we like. Personally, I prefer my teams to win.

by blue bulldog on Oct 10, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions

ahhh thank you

it all comes down to luck does it, I guess that means the numbers don’t matter?

Last I looked, every team isn’t always looking to upgrade at every single position, the baseball business financial model shows that doesn’t it? Small market teams can’t compete on the same level as big market teams, right?

Yes I realized that the Giants strategy was sucking ass as soon as they did nothing to replace Posey….and have stated as much on many and numerous threads… yet, despite them not doing much of anything to replace him, they still held the division lead as late as August 5th. barring injuries to Sanchez and Posey, hell they still may have won the division, they were certainly close enough for us to be worried about them when they ran off 8 in a row in mid September.

and just like you have the opinion that its unnecessary to roll the dice with Hill again, I disagree. Whatever odds you give me on anything is irrelevant, and if you only want your teams to win, wth are you doing as a Dbacks fan, shouldn’t you be over there with Yankee nation?

I see that there’s a difference in the FO’s, ours gave guys a chance and when they didn’t perform, they went with other options. The Giants FO went into vapor lock thinking that they could get by on what they had despite their Natural being lost after season two. Despite that, it still took this team, with the additional players brought up thru the system and thru trade until August to catch them and well into the last two weeks before the division was secured. Hell, as I mentioned before, we STILL don’t know how good this team can be yet because they haven’t even played together for more than a month and a half.

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on Oct 10, 2011 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions

you still don't get it

the Giants have a $70 million lead on us

can you even comprehend how much money that is? and how much difference that makes?

it’s like saying both of us are in a race. at the end of the year, whoever has more money wins. you start off with $50 million. i start off with $120 million. do you think that’s fair? do you expect to win more than me in most years?

the point is the Dbacks as a team are constantly in a hole against richer teams (and are constantly in an advantageous position against poorer teams). so we need to be constantly on our toes and trying to compensate for that.

and nobody says “it all comes down to luck”. have you ever played poker before? even if i can stack the first four cards of the deck, so that i give myself pocket AA each game, and give you pock KK each game, that still means i’m only going to beat you 80% of the time.

that’s all good management is. you stack the deck in your favor, and hope it gives you a good enough shot to win. and most of the time you’re going to win. every once in a while, your opponent will suck you out on a 20% chance. but you live with it and move on because you make money in the long run.

by blue bulldog on Oct 10, 2011 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Wait a minute

if you only want your teams to win, wth are you doing as a Dbacks fan, shouldn’t you be other there with Yankee nation?

Show me a fan that doesn’t want him team to win, whether now or at some point in the future, and I’ll show you the dictionary definition of “contradiction.”

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 10, 2011 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions

any crappy team with a marginal chance at the next superstar.

a la LeBron James and probably this next year Andrew Luck. Maybe at the start they want to win but when they realize their team sucks, they give up and start looking forward to the draft.

"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd

by blank_38 on Oct 10, 2011 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions

this is misleading

even when you want your team to lose now, you still want them to win. that’s why you want LeBron James or Andrew Luck. because Andrew Luck can bring your team wins. the only difference is you are valuing future wins more than you are valuing present wins.

at the end of the day though, you are still valuing wins.

by blue bulldog on Oct 10, 2011 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions

well said

Now I don’t feel so guilty about wanting the Suns to tank.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 11, 2011 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions

ya that makes sense

thanks bb

"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd

by blank_38 on Oct 11, 2011 5:35 AM EDT up reply actions

As initial founder of Tankapalooza '10

I was prepared for this response. But so was bb, with exactly my sentiments. :-)

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 11, 2011 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Joe's a fringe #3/good #4 on average

It’s just that his numbers fluctuate a lot from year to year and it’s hard to know what Joe Saunders you’re gonna get. On average, he’s worth the money and then some, but that “average” consistency isn’t something he’s ever really been able to capture.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions

also...

where on earth did i even say we’d use ARam to replace RyRo?

obviously RyRo is going to be a part of the team next year. what we don’t know is whether he’ll be playing 2B or 3B.

sheesh, calm down.

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Mike.... goodness.... we're not going to get Zimmerman.

Sorry dude, but be realistic. Teams that finished around .500 and are getting an ace back to full health for the following season don’t suddenly sell off one of their stars. That would be insane. Their fans would riot. Think of what D-backs fans would do if we suddenly traded Ian Kennedy for a package of prospects.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

hey, it's the offseason

let a guy dream a little bit :(

actually, i would totally be okay with trading Ian Kennedy for a package of prospects, depending on who we got back.

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Parker, Pollock, and a pair of #150-200 guys?

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions

if Kennedy costs

$26 million over two years, then yeah that would be a steal

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

They do have Rendon,

But unless they’re absolutely sure he can stick at 3B, they won’t be punting on Zimmerman any time soon.

What's one more comeback, anyway?

by Zavada's Moustache on Oct 9, 2011 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Aramis Ramirez would be a huge mistake

Dude is a first baseman. He just can’t handle third base defensively. Roberts is better at third than second, Drew’s ankle is perhaps a bit tenuous, there are questions about Goldschmidt’s range at first, and now you want to put Ramirez at the hot corner? We could have the worst infield defense in baseball. No thanks.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

we would probably have one of the worst infield defenses in baseball

but the effect of that will be marginalized because our outfield defense is absurdly good and our pitchers give up way more balls in the air than balls on the ground

also, at some point there is diminishing marginal returns on defense, and we’re approaching that point. on the other hand, we need to upgrade the offense. if you look at next year’s potential roster, you’ve got Upton who will probably be a 140 wRC+ guy, optimistically Goldy could be a 120-125 guy, and Miggy is probably a 110-115 guy. and that’s it. everyone else will likely be around average or lower, and our pitchers may very well be worse than this year (which would add extra deadweight at-bats to every game). i just think we need another bat in there, in the 120 wRC+ range.

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Ramirez more than makes up for it offensively .

Roberts played mostly 2B in 09 and did very well. So I’m not concerned about him there.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 9, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions

The right side of the infield

Would be Aramis Ramirez and his first-base defense and Stephen Drew and his newly-healed ankle. Not to mention Ramirez’s continued ability to make outs on the basepaths. The bat has been good, and nobody’s denying that, but if it slips even slightly for whatever reason, he’s valueless or worse.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions

i think

you’re overstating the concern a little. even when the bat “slipped” in 2010, he was slightly above replacement level, so it’s not like he was valueless. aside from 2010, he’s always been a 3-4 WAR guy.

i think you may also be putting too much stock in his defensive rating. overall, he seems more like a -0.5 WAR guy on defense moreso than this one-year example of UZR where he was -1.0 WAR.

at the end of the day though, it’s probably a moot point. i don’t see why he would give up his Cubs option (i think it’s $16 million) unless he could get a substantially better deal with a winning team for like, three years. i don’t think that really fits into our plans, since I still believe there’s a reasonable chance Davidson can make it to the majors as a 3B.

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions

"Valueless" factored in money

i.e. why there was a “worse” scenario (i.e. negative surplus value).

He turned 33 years old this year and has always been a poor defender. I think it’s no coincidence that he reached new lows in 2011.

I think he knows he’ll get less money per year, but this is his last chance to get a long-term deal.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions

sure

but how much would he want in a long-term deal?

my point is that if he’s turning down a $16 million option, then he’s expecting more than a 2 year/$20 million deal (since he’ll definitely get $4 million in 2013 unless somehow next year he turns into absolute crap…like he’d have to be quite a bit worse than his 2010 year). if he wants a 3 year deal in the $24 million range or higher, then i just don’t think it makes sense for our team, based on the timeline of Davidson reaching the majors, for us to sign him.

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

:-P

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions

i loved that convo

#nohomo

"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd

by blank_38 on Oct 10, 2011 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Anyone think we might go after BJ Upton?

I think Trevor Bauer will end up making the roster, and Josh Collmenter will get placed in the bullpen (Where he’ll he’ll exceed all expectations).

Joe Saunders: "They played a really good game, so hats off to us"

by Skii on Oct 9, 2011 11:24 AM EDT reply actions

i think

our outfield is pretty much set

infield is probably the biggest concern for us in the offseason

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions

He's basically the exact same player as Chris Young

And we’ve got Young locked up long-term. No thanks.

Also, Collmenter has earned every opportunity to start 2012 in the rotation. It’d be bananas if we took a guy who threw seven innings of one-run ball in the NLDS and immediately banished him to the bullpen.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

especially if he isn't going to be a back end guy

if he’s thrown into the bullpen it’ll likely be as a seventh inning guy. It would be a huge waste of his talent if he’s able to win a starting position for the full year again.

-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.

by JustAJ on Oct 9, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, not the "Collmenter to the bullpen" crap again

he’s a solid mid-rotation starter, period.

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Oct 9, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

This

After 94 wins, and a trip to the NLDS, #InGibbyWeTrust!

by imstillhungry95 on Oct 10, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not saying he's a bad starter

But what about pitchers like Tyler Skaggs, Trevor Bauer, Jarrod Parker, etc.? I thought the plan was to bring them all up.

Joe Saunders: "They played a really good game, so hats off to us"

by Skii on Oct 11, 2011 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions

But anyways

If he’s working out, leave him as the 3rd Starter, and make the other two spots an open competition.

Joe Saunders: "They played a really good game, so hats off to us"

by Skii on Oct 11, 2011 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Commented on this in a different thread

But we’ve got a more official roster predicting thread here, so why not go through it again? :-)

Rotation: We’re set here with Kennedy, Hudson, and Collmenter lining up 1-2-3 and having Parker, Bauer, Skaggs, Miley, Corbin, and Brewer fight for the final two spots. I think Parker and Miley get them. I do think that Saunders gets traded, perhaps for a minor-league starter with a big arm but who hasn’t cracked it in the big leagues, with a transition to relief a la Hernandez a year ago (Jay Jackson of the Cubs comes to mind). Such a player could replace a second lefty in the ’pen.

Rotation: Kennedy, Hudson, Collmenter, Parker, Miley.

Bullpen: Putz probably starts the year as closer, but Hernandez or Shaw could take over that duty at some point mid-year if Putz’s health hampers his performance. Nonetheless, some combination of those three relievers should make a damn nice 7-8-9 bullpen trio. Shaw in particular is really starting to excite me. When Matt Kemp is giving you props, you’re doing something right (and his LHB/RHB splits are pretty minuscule).

Paterson obviously retains the LOOGY role, with Ziegler back as the ROOGY half of the Twin OOGY Hydra™. I think Owings gets guaranteed money from somewhere and leaves, as well he should given the success he had for us this year. I still wouldn’t give him a big-league deal though, in spite of his yeoman-like work. If he’s okay with a minor-league contract, then definitely sign him. I just don’t think it happens. Duke is as good as gone. This means we need another long guy. I’d be open to signing any one of Rodrigo Lopez, Sergio Mitre, or Chien-Ming Wang for that role. That leaves one spot open, and I think we go for another lefty there. Zagurski or a slew of free agent options like Darren Oliver, Hideki Okajima, George Sherrill, or Arthur Rhodes could all make sense on some sort of low-risk deal.

Bullpen: Putz, Hernandez, Shaw, Paterson, Ziegler, Owings/Lopez/Mitre/Wang, Zagurski/Oliver/Okajima/Sherrill/Rhodes.

Everyday Lineup: Montero, Goldschmidt, Roberts, Drew, Parra, Young, and Upton all look like locks to return. Perhaps there could be a move made where Saunders is packaged for a position player to return a slightly better position player, or one on a better contract/with more control. However, that would be some crazy speculation, so let’s just say these guys all return.

That just leaves second base, and I’m not so sure what’ll happen here. I don’t think Hill returns, to be honest, because Arizona has some money to spend and that infield slot seems to be the only place for us to spend it. Why settle for a one-year, ~$6MM deal of Hill when his upside isn’t an impact player, his downside is horrendous, and we have cash to use? I’d hate for us to keep Hill, have him flop, then have to go out into the trade market and part with prospects to get someone when we could have signed someone better in the off-season w/o giving up young talent.

I think we decline Hill’s options, offer him arbitration, and take the picks if he declines a one-year deal around $5MM. If he does depart, we could choose to go after a big free-agent name like Rollins or Reyes, or dip into the second tier with someone like Scutaro or Barmes. The free agent second baseman group isn’t particularly enthralling – the best name is Kelly Johnson, and we all know we won’t be signing him – so I think letting Hill go means shifting Drew to third base and Ryan Roberts to second base (Drew’s arm is better and second base is a horribly dangerous position for ankles; Roberts isn’t the rangiest of second basemen, but he was fine there in 2009). Other options include Jamey Carroll and Jerry Hairston Jr., although they are dramatically less appealing.

Everyday Lineup: Montero, Goldschmidt, Hill/Reyes/Rollins/Scutaro/Barmes/Carroll/Hairston Jr., Drew, Roberts, Parra, Young, Upton.

Bench: Bloomquist and Blanco are both back on their options unless one or the other feels like staying home next October (heck, Blanco could retire for all we know). I think they’ll both be willing to take their sides of the options. That covers most of the infield and the backup catcher slot. Cowgill should return as the fourth outfielder/pinch runner, and should improve upon his already-acceptable performance in 2011. That leaves two slots open, and while one could simply slot in both Burroughs and Blum into those positions, I don’t see how that makes much sense. Bloomquist could certainly handle third within a respectable range, and both Blum and Burroughs are strictly limited to third defensively (heaven forbid either of them gets time at first base).

I think it’s going to be a battle in Spring Training between Burroughs and Blum for that final slot, and I think Burroughs is the favorite. Blum will be a year older, won’t have the “two-year deal” defense, and looked awful in the post-season, whereas Burroughs will have one year’s worth less rust from his hiatus, is just 31/32, is clearly comfortable in an exclusively pinch-hitting role, is a pretty solid defensive 3B, and came up with a big hit in Game Five when we really needed it.

Now, I’m not a huge fan of clutchiness and whatnot, but he got the bat on the ball, which is what we desperately needed with a guy on second, nobody out, and first base open. Blum couldn’t get the bat on the ball in either of his two PA’s, in situations where we were looking for big hits. Of course, there are also the whole “extremely old” and “no ligaments in one of his knees” things. He was a nice guy to have in the clubhouse and we won’t ever know what he truly did for the young players on the team, but I’d rather have Sean.

That leaves one slot open for a new acquisition that would fill the spot on the roster occupied by Xavier Nady, who is as good as gone after failing recover enough arm strength to man left field and posting a 70 wRC+ at the plate. It’d be nice to have an insurance option who could cover for Paul Goldschmidt at first, and with the breakout of Parra and the versatility of Cowgill, I think we’ll be okay if we don’t necessarily acquire someone here who has the capability of manning a corner outfield spot (although, of course, it wouldn’t be a bad thing if we did).

Here’s a list of guys I’d look at: Jason Giambi, Eric Hinske, Vladimir Guerrero, Scott Hairston, Conor Jackson, Ryan Ludwick, Laynce Nix, Juan Rivera, and Jason Kubel. One of those guys as a pinch-hitter-extraordinaire would be a dangerous late-inning bench threat. Having Bloomquist on the roster lets us have the flexibility to get a position-limited bat, and I’d love for us to utilize that ability.

Bench: Willie Bloomquist, Henry Blanco, Collin Cowgill, Sean Burroughs, PHE (pinch-hitter-extraordinaire).

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 4:11 PM EDT reply actions

Here’s a list of guys I’d look at: Jason Giambi, Eric Hinske, Vladimir Guerrero, Scott Hairston, Conor Jackson

Comment from mrssoco in 3…2… :) I’d probably be looking for a left-hander off the bench?

"We have to resist it. Do whatever you have to. Cross your fingers. Say a prayer. Think of a basket of kittens. But do not give in to the fear..."

by Jim McLennan on Oct 9, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Jason Giambi platooning for Goldschmidt would be cool.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 9, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Burroughs is the token lefty.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions

i really want to see us make a push for Reyes or Rollns

Rollins may actually make more sense, because he’ll be a bit cheaper, less of an injury risk, and right around our price range

i feel like i’ve been reading in a number of places (Fangraphs and BotB for sure, i think MLBTR also) that Scutaro is likely to stay in Boston next year

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Reyes would be unbelievable

But that signing could get ugly in 2-3 years. D’Backs can’t afford to give a player 20M who isn’t dominant and playing 160 games a year. Giving a leadoff hitter guy 100+ mil didn’t work out too good for the Red Sox.

by Husk on Oct 9, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions

This.

What's one more comeback, anyway?

by Zavada's Moustache on Oct 9, 2011 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Marco Scutaro is 36

and looking at his defensive numbers it looks like he’s getting worse every year.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 9, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, Scutaro probably isn't happening

And neither are Reyes or Rollins. And, in the end, that’s probably a good thing for our long-term stability. Barmes would be a solid sign. His batting line wasn’t pretty this year, but it isn’t easy to hit in Houston.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions

No way in hell we sign Reyes for 100 Million+

and that’s probably a good thing.

Jimmy Rollins will probably just resign.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 9, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree on the Reyes part

But I think Rollins goes to San Francisco along with Prince Fielder.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions

you really think

San Fran has the financial capacity to do that? there books don’t look pretty to me….

moreover, they seem to be pretty intent on bringing Beltran back. i don’t think they will be able to do that and also get another FA like Rollins.

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions

their*

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Rollins won't be too expensive

And with deals like Tejada’s, DeRosa’s, et al coming off the books, they could cobble the money together perhaps. You’re probably right, it’s just that both of those guys make a ton of sense for the Giants. I think they definitely need to go after Fielder. I’d rather have Prince if I were the Giants than Beltran, frankly.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions

and then just eat Huff's contract?

i know they ended up just eating Rowand’s contract…but it took Sabean forever to admit that mistake….

for some reason i just don’t see it happening (Fielder going to the Giants)

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I think they need to

Belt in LF, and if you really believe in Huff, put him in right. But banking on Huff to be a contributor strikes me as foolish.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions

thankfully

Sabean has always struck me as foolish

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Their payroll is jacked...

http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2011/9/27/2454673/2012-giants-payroll-crunch-is-there-enough-lol-for-a-free-agent

When Zito, Huff and Timmeh come off in 2 years they can begin to spend. Rollins is from there so he might take a pay cut but Fielder no way IMO.

by Husk on Oct 10, 2011 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions

yea

Plus Lincecum, Cain, and Sandoval are going to cost a fortune to extend.

Zito’s contract pretty much screwed them of signing any more 100 million dollar free agents. I’d even be surprised if they resigned Beltran. He’s going to cost at least 15 million a year.
Jimmy Rollins is possible for them I guess since he’s from Oakland. I just don’t really think he’s going to want to leave the dream team.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 10, 2011 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd actually be open

To trading Putz if the right offer came along. He’s useful, but he’s also an injury-prone 34-year-old who outperformed his xFIP by almost a run. If someone wants to give up prospects for a “proven closer,” I’d be all for that.

What's one more comeback, anyway?

by Zavada's Moustache on Oct 9, 2011 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions

would be a political disaster

i just don’t think the fanbase would understand, even though i would totally agree with this move (for God’s sakes, the Rangers gave up Erlin AND Wieland just to get Mike Adams……..???)

and i think the ownership would be swayed by public sentiment

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions

While this makes sense,

I do find it kind of ironic that you mentioned that you would be completely okay with trading Kennedy for prospects, but trading Putz “would be a political disaster.” :-P

What's one more comeback, anyway?

by Zavada's Moustache on Oct 10, 2011 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions

haha

i mean, trading IPK would totally be a political disaster

i’m ALWAYS okay when i think we can trade someone who is overvalued. IPK and Putz are almost certainly going to be overvalued on the market this winter.

by blue bulldog on Oct 10, 2011 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Agree completely

But don’t see someone coming along and offering much. There are a few good closers set to hit the market (K-Rod, Papelbon, Coco Cordero, Lidge) this off-season, so I don’t think there will be much of a rush to get Putz.

And, of course, what bb said.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I actually am in favor of this too.

Because David Hernandez is a monster.

In fact, we may still be playing if David Hernandez is pitching instead of Putz in that 10th inning(Of course I know Hernandez had already pitched, I mean if perhaps someone else took Hernandez’s spot for the time that he pitched and David was put in Putz’s spot)

By the way, nothing I like talking about more than money and club options. (Sigh) Dammit, I wish we were still playing.

In a dispassionate view, the ardor for reform, improvement for virtue, knowledge, and even beauty, is only a vain sticking-up for appearances, as if one were anxious about the cut of one's clothes, in a community of blind men.

by BulldogsNotZags on Oct 9, 2011 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions

The worst part about not playing

Is we could’ve owned St.Louis…

But anyways, back to predicting the roster.

Joe Saunders: "They played a really good game, so hats off to us"

by Skii on Oct 11, 2011 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Does anybody think there could be a possibility of trading Stephen Drew?

Now I mean, I like Stephen Drew, but there is apparently a possibility that he won’t resign with us, and if this might free up some more cap to go after someone like Reyes, and net us some good prospects in the meantime, it might not be a terrible idea.

I know nothing about contracts or what the market value would be for a guy like Drew, but the thought just crossed my mind.

In a dispassionate view, the ardor for reform, improvement for virtue, knowledge, and even beauty, is only a vain sticking-up for appearances, as if one were anxious about the cut of one's clothes, in a community of blind men.

by BulldogsNotZags on Oct 9, 2011 9:19 PM EDT reply actions

Also

Injury concerns, so on

In a dispassionate view, the ardor for reform, improvement for virtue, knowledge, and even beauty, is only a vain sticking-up for appearances, as if one were anxious about the cut of one's clothes, in a community of blind men.

by BulldogsNotZags on Oct 9, 2011 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions

i think the problem with trading Drew

is that we’d be selling him at an all-time low due to the injury

and i hate hate hate selling low

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Value down

Everybody will assume the worst on the progress of his injury if we shop him now (as they should). Wouldn’t get fair value.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I hope we don't trade him

He’s walking around without support and there’s still over 5 months till Opening Day. Some range might be lost but a 90% Droo is better than a 125% Bloomquist. Stephen is an underachiever offensively given his talent but we need that lefty bat. Keep Bloomy and give Drew the day off vs Lefties for his ankle next year or something.

by Husk on Oct 10, 2011 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions

i just wanted to point this out

and this seemed like a great thread to do so

but do people realize we had the 25th lowest payroll in all of baseball this season?

http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/baseball/mlb/salaries/team

this is ridiculous. we should be spending way more than that……..i’ll be very disappointed if we don’t spend at least $65 million in payroll next year (especially since we don’t need to earmark as much as we did this year for the draft) and honestly, we should be hitting $70 million.

it’s not like the economy has been deflationing….particularly in the baseball industry….

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 10:15 PM EDT reply actions

Arizona's attendance has been awful

Thankfully, extra playoff revenue should help next year. Also, we’re spending more in the front office – still paying off JB, paying two managers, and KT made $2MM I believe.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions

an addendum

right now our salary commitments for next year sits right under $30 million

assuming we don’t trade Joe Saunders, then once you take into account Arb raises to Saunders, Miggy, IPK, and RyRo, picking up options for Blanco and Bloomquist, and add on the minimum wage guys like Parra, Goldschmidt, Cowgill, Parker, Hudson, Collmenter, and the six minimum wage guys in the bullpen, that is conservatively $28 million additional dollars

that means there’s still a ton of money leftover (realistically, around $8-10 million). and if we end up trading Saunders to free up more money, then the sky’s the limit….or $16 million is the limit….whichever comes first

it depresses me to say this….but…i predict KT will just keep Saunders and spend the remaining $8-10 million in our budget on 4-5 veterans to

by blue bulldog on Oct 9, 2011 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions

We don't have a whole lot of roster openings left

I think he adds a big-time bench bat with thunder – not a reclamation project like X Nady – and another quality bullpen arm. I’ll be interested to see what he can do with Saunders.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 9, 2011 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Might the team be more willing

To spend money this year, knowing that the season ticket holding base is likely to increase next year?

What's one more comeback, anyway?

by Zavada's Moustache on Oct 10, 2011 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions

one can only hope

by blue bulldog on Oct 10, 2011 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions

My Prediction

I think it would be unwise for the Dbacks to resign Aaron Hill. I appreciate what he did for us the past couple months, but we have an opportunity to go and get somebody better. As of now, my opening day lineup is:

1) Roberts 2B
2) Drew SS
3) Upton RF
4) Montero C
5) Goldschmidt 1B
6) Young CF
7) 3B
8) Parra LF

Bloomquist can come off the bench and fill in for any of the infielders except for Goldschmidt, and Cowgill for the outfielders. As for the third baseman, we are teeming with prospects right now as well as quality veterans and young guys that we could trade to land us a very solid 3B, while still having a formidable nucleus of talented prospects. Trading Saunders, Miley, Parker, Cowgill, Blum, even Putz, could get us somebody like Wright or Zimmerman. I’m not as interested in a home run hitter as I am in somebody that hits for a high average.

Assuming we do trade Saunders and/or Miley, the rotation could look something like this.

Ian Kennedy
Daniel Hudson
Josh Collmenter
Jarrod Parker
Trevor Bauer/Tyler Skaggs

David Hernandez is basically a closer in training, although I think he is ready now. If they do trade Putz, Hernandez would do a fine job saving games for us.

I am already so excited for the 2012 season to begin!

by dbrough on Oct 9, 2011 10:44 PM EDT reply actions

Putz

has value. most closers of his calibre get paid a lot more than how much he’s paid (though part of that is the injury risk being internalized in the cost)

Saunders might have value, but probably doesn’t have too much value. i’m looking forward to reading about Dan’s upcoming article on Saunders and trade possibilities, but honestly, i’d be happy if we could get a Top 150 prospect from a Saunders trade. the only way we get more is if someone really overvalues the shiny ERA he put up this year. on the bright side, it only takes one buyer to overvalue……..

by blue bulldog on Oct 10, 2011 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Top-150?

Ummmm, not quite. My post is full of reclamation projects and fliers. :-)

Sorry to disappoint haha.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 10, 2011 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd pick up Hill's option because...

I’d rather have him at 1 year 8M and Roberts at 3rd over Aramis Ramirez at 2 yrs/20 mil and Roberts at 2nd. Obviously offer Hill arbitration first.

I don’t like trading Parker or Skaggs for Zimmerman because we need insurance for Parker if he doesn’t live up to expectations or has arm trouble next year.

by Husk on Oct 10, 2011 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions

i guess i must be in the minority about this

but i most definitely disagree

that is however, the correct comparison we should be making. but i’d rather have Aramis Ramirez at 2 yrs/20 mil and Roberts at 2nd instead of Hill at 1 yr/8 mil and Roberts at 3rd. it’s probably a moot point though, because as i outlined above, ARam is probably going to want/get more than 2 yrs/20 mil.

by blue bulldog on Oct 10, 2011 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions

take this with a grain of salt

Opening Day Line-up

Miguel Montero C
Paul Goldschmidt 1B
Ryan Robert 2B
Stephen Drew SS
Gordon Beckham 3B
Gerardo Parra LF
Chris B. Young CF
Justin Upton RF

I really think they go after one of Beckham/Stewart/Headley/Cuddyer for that 3rd base job. I really like Beckham and think he could put it together for us. Everything else is like always.

Bench
Willie Bloomquist
Sean Burroughs
Henry Blanco
Collin Cowgill
Jorge Posada/Jason Giambi/Jason Michaels (solely for PH/backup at 1st)

Starting Pitching

Ian Kennedy
Daniel Hudson
Josh Collmenter
Joe Saunders
Jarrod Parker

They’ll keep Joe around just because of the great numbers he put up this year and probably trade him around June when players start getting hurt. Miley will then slip into the rotation unless they want to try out Skaggs/Corbin/Brewer.

Relief
Wade Miley (long relief)
Mike Zagurski
Joe Paterson
Brad Ziegler
Brad Shaw
David Hernandez
J.J. Putz

"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd

by blank_38 on Oct 10, 2011 2:21 AM EDT reply actions

If we get Beckham

He stays at 2B and RyRo stays at 3B. No reason to swap positions on two guys out of the blue.

But Beckham and CY is an IFFB catastrophe. Not happenin’.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 10, 2011 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions

ya but the dude hit .270/.347/.460 like 2 years ago.

he’s got some problems, but success was there. kinda like the gamble we took with aaron hill.

"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd

by blank_38 on Oct 10, 2011 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Beckham

i think he’d be interesting

and honestly, should not be difficult to pry out of Kenny Williams’s hands. we wouldn’t have to give up a whole lot in terms of prospects.

i’d still probably prefer going after a guy with a higher likelihood of being an impact bat. but honestly, i don’t think Aaron Hill’s EV is all that much higher than Beckham’s EV, and Beckham would be way cheaper.

by blue bulldog on Oct 10, 2011 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions

from twitter

How Red Sox view Middlebrooks could impact Youkilis future. Rox would have interest in Youkilis if he becomes available

would the dbacks how the guts to go after youk if he’s available? What would it take to get him? If we do, that’s exactly who Towers loves. He’s got $12MM next year then either $14MM in 2013 or $1.25MM buyout. Maybe resign him to 3/30MM?

"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd

by blank_38 on Oct 11, 2011 5:45 AM EDT up reply actions

aaaaaaahhh

dude i’d go nuts if we managed to snag Youk from the Red Sox

that being said, i’d sort of view that as on the same level of pipe dream as getting Zimm from the Nats. i wouldn’t really resign him, because i still believe Davidson can be a decent cheap option for us at 3B, very soon. but Youk should cost us Parker and more. the only small advantage we have is that the Red Sox do need cheap pitching, and that’s what we have in spades.

the other thing is, Middlebrooks won’t be ready to start out of spring training. also, i’m skeptical about his ability to succeed at the majors. low walk rate, high strikeout rates, and really only one year of being awesome in the minors. still plenty of question marks on how Middlebrooks will perform in the majors. i guess depending on how the Red Sox perform during the year, maybe Youk makes sense as a trade candidate midseason (doubtful).

by blue bulldog on Oct 11, 2011 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Red Sox would have to be insane

To give up Youk to play Wes Freaking Middlebrooks. One thing is for certain: If the Sox do move Youk, Theo Epstein is no longer their GM. I see no scenario in which Epstein stays with the team then makes selling moves – Boston fans would riot, and a season of team regression would get Epstein fired. That’s in nobody’s best interest unless there’s a new GM who is given some leeway to rebuild a bit as he sees.

If Youkilis does become available, I would seriously consider giving up Jarrod Parker for him, provided that we get a window to negotiate a contract extension (a must if we’re going to give up Parker). I would prefer a package of Davidson and Miley (a pair of B prospects wouldn’t be an awful return for Boston), but that’s far less likely. I’d try to give him a Jeter contract – 4Y/$45MM. Slide Roberts to second, and we’re freaking set.

Lineup: Roberts/Parra, Youkilis, Upton, Montero, Goldschmidt, Young, Roberts/Parra, Pitcher.

Deadly.

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Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 11, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

dude

i’d go further….not even seriously consider giving up Parker

they’d definitely want him and i would hesitate at all on using him as the centerpiece, particularly if we could negotiate a contract extension. they’d almost certainly want Davidson too, which i would probably be okay with.

by blue bulldog on Oct 11, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

If we give up Parker

I’d rather give up Borch than Davidson. Definitely need the negotiating window.

You’re right, I’d probably definitely do this too.

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Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 11, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

lol

in my excitement at any prospect of getting Youk, i forgot how to type proper english…

i definitely would not hesitate at all on using Parker as a centerpiece. i definitely agree with you though that i’d rather give up Borch than Davidson, but it’s not really a deal-breaker for me.

by blue bulldog on Oct 11, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Hahaha I hadn't even noticed that

But definitely knew what you meant. :-P

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Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 11, 2011 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions

There are similarities

Both surged above (back above, in Hill’s case) 20% LD-Rate in 2011, and there’s reason to believe that IFFB% is something that ought to regress back to career normalities for Beckham. He’s a bit of a breakout candidate for 2012, actually, when looking at the hit distribution nonsense. Particularly putting him in the NL and at Chase Field……………

I want Gordon Beckham now. :-)

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 11, 2011 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions

he is scary though

with the high IFFB% rate. scouts also said his patience at the plate is nothing like it was in 2008. his walk rates are pretty low and his strikeouts are high. BABIP’s pretty low but still. when scouts say you have holes in your swing, you’re in trouble. He actually fields pretty well, at least last season.

"We’re going to turn this team around 360 degrees." –Jason Kidd

by blank_38 on Oct 11, 2011 5:28 AM EDT up reply actions

definitely scary

he’s more of a reclamation project, than like when we bought low on KJ. this is definitely not a situation like Dan Hudson, where KW was simply tricked by small sample size, and poor scouting.

still, that’s what would make trading for him very cheap. and he’s definitely still an interesting player.

by blue bulldog on Oct 11, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Scary

But not unfixable. It’s kind of an out-of-nowhere spike. Never had alarming levels of IFFB before this year – I think that’s something that should naturally regress some and I’d be confident in Don Baylor’s ability to get his swing fixed if necessary.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 11, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Dan

You doing your prospect rankings in the near future?

by Husk on Oct 10, 2011 3:45 AM EDT reply actions

The process has been underway for quite a while

I’m organizing an aggregated list of rankings from me, bb, paqs, and Zephon this year. Getting lists from each guy then creating an average ranking in an attempt to balance out personal biases and create a more general consensus. Meanwhile, I’ve been a-busy writing up synopses of each prospect who I think has a chance to make the list, so once things get underway the list should come out fairly regularly. I’m thinking early November or so for a starting date. It’ll be a top-30 this year, with stories coming out in groups of five prospects apiece on a weekly basis. There will be a FanPost that will contain a master list, links to each post for easy access, and the individual lists of each contributor.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 10, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Sweet

by Husk on Oct 10, 2011 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions

My Take

1. I know this won’t be popular but the guy I would be looking to replace/trade is Parra. IMHO he is the top candidate for regression. I don’t have a list of “targetable” left fielders but I’m thinking that list might have more options than infield. We’d miss his defense but only a little because Cowgill isn’t far off of him, and he can also sub for Young and probably Upton. Parra’s performance in the playoffs reaks of how far he could possibly slide. Sell high candidate. Might be able to find a real impact bat for reasonable dollars at this position. Or perhaps make a real splash with someone like Cuddyer who can also play first and third. He might be too expensive though.
2. Saunders needs to go. We got the best of what he had to offer, so move him while you can before his shaky peripherals generate 180 results from this year. And you don’t want to create a clubhouse cancer by having to bench him for a young guy. I like Miley’s potential more than Saunders’ based solely on “stuff.” And we need to be ready to accept Bauer or Skaggs onto the roster soon. Move him for another quality lefty bullpen arm or something.
3. Hill is a definite re-sign or option exercise IMO. He’s a Dbacks kind of player. Does a little of everything, good clubhouse guy, good defense, can run, etc. I don’t think they can do any better without spending a boatload on a name free agent. The good coaching and good atmosphere will also help prevent a collapse. And I think his teammates like him a lot. Great fit and a total “makes sense” signing. Total keeper and solidifies the lineup in the 2-hole.
4. I don’t see a big FA signing coming. We don’t need it and it could really damage the clubhouse if it doesn’t pay off in spades. Just because we have the money doesn’t mean we have to spend it. It might be nice to sit on $8 million to spend during the season when unforeseen events transpire. I might make an exception for an impact LF.
5. Jettison Blum. I’d rather see someone better than Burroughs on the roster too. Roberts will need his share of days off as we’ve seen and we need to prepare more for a Roberts possible regression than a Hill regression, IMO. If Wheeler does well in AFL and has a decent spring I wouldn’t mind seeing him make the roster and get a little playing time. Davidson or Borchering are probably only a year away also, depending on who has the break-out progression. I would not do anything to clog that position considering what’s due for arrival before long. So I’m against a Ramirez signing. I don’t see him as a great clubhouse guy, but I have no direct evidence to support that opinion.
5. I like the idea of re-signing Overbay. Goldie needs to play most everyday and Overbay is probably fine backing up, making the occasional start, and being a PH. He didn’t do very well pinch hitting this year but maybe coaching and preparation can make him better at that. Good clubhouse guy. But there’s probably as good as or better options than Overbay so I’m not married to this idea. But finding a guy like Overbay who will accept the role might not be so easy to find.
6. We need a better backup catcher that could play everyday if Miggy were out for any period. We saw what happened to SF when Posey went down. They were not prepared for that. I would spend some money on a good backup catcher and give Miggy a few more days off.
7. I think we got the best of what we could out of Owings. He may re-sign with us cheap but I wouldn’t offer a lot. I could go either way with keeping him. He’s a good long man, but I don’t think he’s much of a short man. But he also proved to be a good clubhouse guy so we’ll call him a keeper for now, but he might decide otherwise.
8. Cook has good stuff and needs to get more opportunities. He’s got Shaw-type stuff and I hope he makes the roster. He is ready for this step and has the potential to be very good.

So my roster looks like…
Goldie
Overbay/FA
Hill
Drew
Roberts
Bloomquist
Wheeler
Upton
Young
Cowgill
FA Left Fielder
Miggy
FA Catcher

Kennedy
Hudson
Collmenter
Miley
Parker
Putz
Hernandez
Shaw
Paterson
Ziegler
Owings
Cook
Lefty via trade or FA or Castillo
Farm righty (Marshall, Woodall, Spottiswood) or FA

Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

by sonic barracuda on Oct 10, 2011 2:26 PM EDT reply actions

My only reservations about trading Parra

Are that a) he is a great fit for our fly-ball-happy pitching staff, and b) he is still so young so we don’t really know what his bat can truly become. We would need to get an immense return for Gerardo if we are to even consider a move.

Also, your roster is 27 players. :-P

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 10, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

i wouldn't mind trading Parra

my concern is that i still think defense is somewhat underrated in the market, and GM’s won’t be willing to overpay, or even pay equal value, for Parra’s services

by blue bulldog on Oct 10, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

on second thought

we should probably keep him for at least one more year.

definitely though, if he can re-up his value again next year, we can consider trading him. there is a slew of good offensive outfielders that can be found on the free agent market in 2013.

by blue bulldog on Oct 10, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I was kind of lumping those last relievers all together

Pick two of Owings, Cook, lefty, righty

Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

by sonic barracuda on Oct 10, 2011 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Ah, that makes sense.

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Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 10, 2011 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't see any reason why Parra would regress.

You do know that he spent the whole season batting 8th right? He batted 8th and he still lead the team in hitting. If he hit leadoff or 2nd all year I don’t think .315 ,25 SB, and 10-15 HR is unrealistic for him. Parra is still just 24 and has plenty of upside. If he doesn’t improve and continues to put up 2011 type numbers then fine. He’s cheap and just as valuable if not more than guys like Cuddyer or Josh Willingham. Probably more so when you consider those guys will be making 8-10 million per year.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 10, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

And, on Parra,

He’s been better at identifying balls and strikes this year, it seems.

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Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 10, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Except in the playoffs

Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

by sonic barracuda on Oct 10, 2011 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Everybody has slumps

He’ll be fine. Five games doesn’t make a guy suddenly bad.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 10, 2011 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Pretty much all of this.

There’s no reason to believe that a young player like Parra is going to regress in his fourth year of pro ball.

Wear your own fur.

by Marc Fournier on Oct 10, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

And I forgot to mention

Pollock as an outfielder to make the roster if we move Parra. And is in fact additional incentive to move Parra.

Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

by sonic barracuda on Oct 10, 2011 2:36 PM EDT reply actions

I don't mind the Parra talk

And I really like Parra. And I really really like good defensive teams. But hey, if I am this in love with him there are others (GMs) that might love him too. And perhaps overpay.
Fact is he is a light hitter for the position and we could really use another middle of the order bat. His defensive prowess is lessened a tad by playing next to Young, as there is some overlap in the range of our outfielders.I don’t think he’ll regress terribly next year, but I think he’s near his ceiling as a hitter.
Then there is Pollock as you mentioned.

If we can get a trade done that really addresses one of our other holes, I am always ready to listen.

by Counsellmember on Oct 10, 2011 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions

interseting idea on Parra and Drew to 3b mentioned earlier but...

Parra is young and tons of upside and I still like Drew to retain 95% of his range, stay at short and move RyRo to 2b. Hill for $8M is too much (as is Saunders for $7-8). Take that and go get David Wright. The Mets have to move him, they have his back fill and they have to shed payroll. He bats 4 hole and protects Upton. I like this better than Ramirez. of course I like Zimm better but aint going to happen.

by Majabe on Oct 10, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I guess I just disagree on Parra's upside

I just sense he was as good as he’s going to be this year. He had that little stretch where he banged 3-4 homers in like a week. But he basically has no power for a left fielder. I suspect he has zero upside and all downside. His defense can be replaced. I’m not suggesting putting someone like Wily Mo out there.

Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

by sonic barracuda on Oct 10, 2011 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Why would you suspect he no upside and all downside?

Other than the fact that he struggled in a 5 game series.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 10, 2011 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Where would his upside come from?

A higher batting average? Is he going to hit .330 next year or something? Is his defense going to get better? Is he going to steal more bases? We know there’s no power lurking in there. I just think he’s maxed out.

Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

by sonic barracuda on Oct 12, 2011 3:03 AM EDT up reply actions

i actually somewhat agree with this

the upside is limited. maybe power ticks up a little more.

the thing is, even without upside, if you think he has a high probability maintaining last year’s numbers, he’s still plenty valuable

by blue bulldog on Oct 12, 2011 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions

You say this

But this is exactly what people were saying a year ago.

- “Look at him, he’s so wiry there’s no chance for more power!”
- “His plate discipline is awful, he’ll never draw more walks!”
- “He strikes out so much, how will he hit for more average!”

One year later, the same story. The dude’s 24 years old, you really think there’s no way he gets stronger over the next three, four years? You really think he’s done developing his approach?

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Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 12, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

diminishing marginal returns though

the fact that his average is already this high and the power is at 140 ISO and the walk rate is at 9% just means the upside is more limited, which is what barracuda is getting at

by blue bulldog on Oct 12, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Guys are more likely to improve rapidly in their youth, sure,

But I don’t see why we keep placing limitations on the guy when he’s far from his prime years.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 12, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

If we got David Wright

we’d probably be the second best team in the NL. We maybe already are IMO.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 10, 2011 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions

hands down

by Majabe on Oct 10, 2011 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Depends on Wright

He’s inconsistant with some injury issues. Defense has really fallen off too. I’ve always liked him but hesitant because it would take Parker or Skaggs.

by Husk on Oct 10, 2011 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions

or Saunders and Miley

by Majabe on Oct 10, 2011 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Wouldn't get us anywhere close to Wright

Mets want a top 3 prospect for the vet players. They won’t just straight dump him for a #4 starter who makes 8 mil and a borderline major league pitcher.

by Husk on Oct 10, 2011 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions

No way

I don’t think the cost would be a prospect that high. Wright might have 2 years with the Mets left, but that last option year is void if he gets traded. So you’re talking about 1 year of a guy coming off an injury season and a couple years of down offense since he moved into his new home park. His team is also in rebuilding mode and his is one of the larger contracts on the books. They don’t expect to contend next year, or perhaps even the year after. His defense is below, perhaps far below, average, and he reportedly has B.O. No team would give up a top 25 prospect like that.

That said, I would give up a couple outside our top 10.

by Counsellmember on Oct 10, 2011 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions

i agree with this a lot

obviously, if the Mets try to fleece us like they did the Giants, and nab a Zach Wheeler-level prospect from us for 1 year of Wright, then we should hang up the phone immediately

but Wright should not be that expensive.

by blue bulldog on Oct 10, 2011 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions

You also think we can get Zimm for nothing as well

When will you guys realize we can’t get everyone we want for a B prospect. The Mets aren’t gonna dump him. If you think we can get him for less than Parker or Skaggs or a combo of Davidson, Borcherin g and Corbin you’ll be dissapointed.

by Husk on Oct 10, 2011 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions

The Zimmerman talk is bogus

But Wright doesn’t have a ton of value… he’s put up 9.5 fWAR over the last three seasons… that’s not the star he once was. Particularly since the option gets voided if he’s moved, one year of Wright – both not a star anymore and with heavy injury risk – at $15.25MM isn’t particularly valuable. I think Miley and Saunders is actually a pretty fair package, tbh. The Mets could technically use Joe to chew innings, but in reality, they’ll probably look for younger players. Miley and either Adam Eaton or Ryan Wheeler (preferably Wheeler) could make some sense.

If we ask New York to take on money, then we pay a lot more in prospects. If we’re giving up Miley and another B- guy (Borchering, Corbin), the Mets need to eat about $5MM or so. If we give up another grade-B guy (Davidson), New York would need to eat at least half of Wright’s money.

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by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 11, 2011 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions

I may be overrating Wright but you're overrating our prospects

Miley, Wheeler or Eaton will never make an impact in the majors. The ballpark has killed his value. Before the new ballpark he was a 30 hr, 40 double and 20 stolen base guy granted he was younger but he’s still in his prime. Wright makes 15M a year. We’re gonna throw in a top 3 prospect if they’re gonna eat half IMO. I’m sure they’d insist on Davidson since they’re losing their franchise 3rd baseman. Davidson, Corbin and Borchering might get us 25% of the salary paid and if we did trade for him we’d want him for 2 years.

by Husk on Oct 11, 2011 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions

i dunno

in terms of prospects, Corbin + Borchering is already a slightly better package than Zach Wheeler imo (it’s definitely not a worse package). Davidson on top of that would make the package quite a bit better than Zach Wheeler.

and i know this might be a little hard to believe….but David Wright all of last year (though this includes time missed on the DL) was worth only slightly more than one-third of Beltran’s season.

once you factor in risk premium on Wright’s back injury, i really think the Mets are not going to get great offers to trade him. i agree with Dan on this. Miley and Eaton should be able to do the trick. Miley = 90% or higher back-end of the rotation starter. Eaton = 4th outfielder at worst, above-average right-fielder at best.

by blue bulldog on Oct 11, 2011 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Not sure how good a prospect Zach Wheeler is...

But he was the Giants best prospect. Probably says more about the Giants than anything.

by Husk on Oct 11, 2011 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions

he will be top 50

on BA’s list this winter

i’m fairly confident of this

by blue bulldog on Oct 11, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I know what the prospects are and I have a solid idea of their values

Miley is a B guy (scouting reports are glowing), while Wheeler and Eaton are both C+ guys. For how poorly Wright played in 2011 and his injury status, that’s actually a heck of a return, perhaps an overpay.

Whether or not we want him for two years is one thing, but Wright is the one who decides whether or not the option is voided, and my bet is that he’d void it (if he has a bad year, it’d get declined anyways, and if he has a good year, he’d get a bigger contract in free agency). That makes him a one-year rental, and really kills his trade value if the Mets want to move him (and it’s not too hard to see why they’d consider moving him).

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Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 11, 2011 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions

He's still David Wright

When healthy, a star. Rumor is the Rockies going hard after him anyway. I like Wright but if it’s between prospects and 10M per for him or just 10M alone for Aramis Ramirez they’re about even. What do you think?

by Husk on Oct 11, 2011 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions

personally, i'd take ARam

in that situation

i’m just concerned that ARam wants a 3 year deal

by blue bulldog on Oct 11, 2011 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions

i think the problem is this though

i actually think ARam and Wright have similar values. as in, the market would pay the same for them on a per annum basis.

essentially though, this means the market is willing to pay the same in terms of ARam = money vs. Wright = money + prospects. any amount of money that we would be forced to pay Wright (to the extent that we would have to pay the same amount for ARam) is less we would have to pay Wright in terms of prospects.

by blue bulldog on Oct 11, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Thing that scares me about ARam

Is his home/away splits. Guy is an elite hitter at Wrigley. Way worse on the road.

D-Wright is pretty even across….

by Husk on Oct 11, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

hm

i hadn’t noticed that before

that’s interesting, though it makes sense, considering how bad Citi park is for Wright

by blue bulldog on Oct 11, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Wrigley winds

Ramirez’s overall line wouldn’t get any better at Chase. Might not get any worse, but expecting a big boost would be silly. Wright could really see a spike in production.

Both guys also have the benefit of moving into a positive, playoff clubhouse environment.

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Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 11, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Really?

If he’d played a full season in 2011 at the level of production he showed while on the field, that’s not a star by any means. A good player, but not a star.

I truly don’t think the cost is as high as you think it is. If the Rox pay more than that, then it kind of sucks to be them.

I’d take Wright in a nanosecond. I truly do not want Aramis Ramirez on a multi-year deal.

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Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 11, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

totally different situations though

i know i’m dreaming on Zimm, and i’ve never denied that

i mean, maybe the Mets won’t back down and give up Wright for something like Saunders and Miley. after all, they did milk the crap out of the Giants when they traded Beltran away and got back Wheeler. but Wright is damn expensive. and he’s going to only be under control for one year. the value is very limited.

by blue bulldog on Oct 11, 2011 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes on Wright

I am high on us getting Wright also. That would be my #1 offseason priority. His bat would play Chase; Citi Field is killing his power. He’s not going to have a huge pricetag; taking the whole salary would be a significant for the Mets. It’s a short term deal; no blockage of Davidson or others at the hot corner, our deepest prospect position.

by Counsellmember on Oct 10, 2011 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions

you may be right, he's only 24 and still learning how to hit though

I was back and forth on him as well. All yr kept thinking i wanted to see a 4 hole hitter in LF. but, his D, his arm and a 295 ave, along with his solid command of the plate wore me down and I’m more convinced now

by Majabe on Oct 10, 2011 9:28 PM EDT reply actions

Some stuff from Towers on Hill, Saunders, etc...

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/towers-on-hill-bloomquist-blanco-saunders-parra.html

by Husk on Oct 11, 2011 12:36 PM EDT reply actions

So Kevin Towers pretty much summed up what we all were saying.

-He wants Hill back but 8 million is too much. It will come down to Hill wanting to come back, and taking less.
-It sounds to me like he doesn’t even want Saunders back. Maybe somebody like Jason Marquis or Freddy Garcia could fill in till Bauer and Skaggs are ready.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 11, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions

It will be interesting to see if Marquis has any interest in returning

Then again, I’m beginning to think that fly ball pitchers are more naturally suited for our club given our outfield alignment.

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Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 11, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Towers is undecided on Saunders

I think he would be a nice fallback if Parker/Bauer/Miley don’t have great springs

by rfffr on Oct 11, 2011 12:59 PM EDT reply actions

It's interesting

It says that he’s undecided on tendering him a contract, not keeping him. Which suggests to me that he really doesn’t want to keep him, but simply isn’t sure whether or not he’ll be able to get much value in a trade for him.

::cue post scheduled to be up in approximately five minutes:: :-)

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 11, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Gambo said D-Wright is the only big name he's hearing for the D'Backs

Who knows about his sources but that’s what he said.

by Husk on Oct 11, 2011 9:27 PM EDT reply actions

Wow

That’s rather interesting. Wright would have to be a contingency plan for no Aaron Hill, right?

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Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 11, 2011 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly

The only reason for getting Wright is if there’s no Hill. Otherwise you’re talking about benching Roberts.

Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

by sonic barracuda on Oct 12, 2011 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions

I think a package of Davidson, Corbin and others could get it done

by rfffr on Oct 12, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I think those two alone should get it done

But I wouldn’t want to move Davidson.

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Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 12, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

we shouldn't have to move Davidson

to get a deal for Wright done. that would be a big overpay imo.

Corbin is a good prospect. he’d probably be the 3rd best pitching prospect in the Mets system, since Mejia ain’t going to cut it as a starter. Corbin and one of our young projectable arms in SB should get it done easily.

by blue bulldog on Oct 12, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Mejia also ain't a prospect anymore...

So it’ll be Harvey, Wheeler, Corbin probably. Familia probably fourth or fifth. Corbin and Wheeler would make sense – give NY a cheap stopgap 3B option.

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Today, our Executive Chef Josh Collmenter is featuring a special of delicately braised crow served over-the-top (get it?!?!) of a side of lightly roasted NLDS victory and topped with a delicious starting rotation cream sauce.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 12, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

this would work too

by blue bulldog on Oct 12, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

No way are we getting Wright with Corbin as the centerpiece!

This is the team that just sexual assaulted the Giants for their best prospect in exchange for a rental. You could look at Wright as a rental I suppose. but at least we would have him for a full year as oppose to a few months. If they want to do Davidson and Corbin for Wright, Do it!

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 12, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Just because Wheeler was SF's best prospect (a debatable point, actually)

Doesn’t mean that he’s a phenomenal prospect.

1) Wheeler is a B/B+ grade guy and Corbin is a B- grade guy. Not an overwhelming difference.
2) Beltran is a star, Wright is not (anymore).
3) That was a horrible desperation trade by San Francisco.
4) SF knew that compensation picks would be possible for Beltran, but for all we know, Wright could accept arb (it’d be more $/yr than he’d get on the market unless he has a great year) or the arb system could be scrapped altogether.
5) That’s why we’re giving another C+ prospect in the package – Wheeler is no slouch.

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by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 12, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

except for the fact that Wright’s a star. They consider him the face of their franchise. So a deal for Wright would be harder for them to make than Beltran. It’s a hard thing to sell to NY fans.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 12, 2011 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions

And?

There’s no reason for us, or any team, to give the Mets more for Wright just because of what the Mets fans think of him.

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by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 12, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions

okay

i definitely agree the Mets sexually assaulted the Giants in that trade….but a couple of things:

1) not a huge supply of big bats available for the Giants at the time. they thought they had a really good shot at making a deep postseason run, but lacked a bat. Mets had tons of leverage on the Giants.

2) just because Sabean is an idiot, doesn’t mean we need to be an idiot like him.

really though it boils down to…..who is going to be willing to pay more for Wright than us offering like Corbin/Wheeler, or Corbin/projectable arm?

by blue bulldog on Oct 12, 2011 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think Corbin and Davidson for Wright would be an idiot move at all.

As long as the big four are not involved.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 12, 2011 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I should probably clarify the "Big Four"

as Skaggs, Bauer, Parker, and Archie Bradley. Since two of those guy can’t be traded until August we shouldn’t even worry about them being involved anyways.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 12, 2011 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Way too much

Davidson is a flat B prospect and Corbin’s a B-. That’s MORE value than Wheeler alone, for a player who is LESS valuable than Beltran. How is that not an idiot move?

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by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 12, 2011 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions

If they trade for Wright then Saunders would not be back.

They couldn’t afford it.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 12, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

they could

towers got approvable for 30 million for konerko last year

by rfffr on Oct 12, 2011 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Furcal at 2b?

Any thoughts about bringing in Rafael Furcal to play 2b and leadoff? I think he’s a better option than Hill and I think his defense at 2b would be much better than if Roberts shifted to 2b.

…plus if Drew doesn’t come back well, Furcal can play SS.

by AZcat97 on Nov 3, 2011 1:37 PM EDT reply actions