2011 Diamondbacks Report Card: Sean Burroughs

by soco on Oct 27, 2011 1:12 PM EDT

Age on Opening Day: 30
Salary: $414,000
2011 stats: 78 games, 110 PAs, .273/.289/.336, 1 HR, 8 RBI
2010 stats: N/A

The first concern when dumpster diving isn't whether the food is spoiled. Most grocery stores throw out food that has passed the recommended shelf life, but they're just trying to limit their liability. Much of what can be found is still edible, though, if you're careful. You want to avoid most fruit or vegetables. Bread is also no good, as is any meat product. Canned food is the holy grail because it probably is something that will have most of the major food groups and still be good. Most grocery stores strip the labels off in an attempt to dissuade dumpster diving, but the risk for the hungry is minimal. You know the food in the can is probably still good.

No, the concern when examining two unmarked cans is, "which one of these is dog food?"

I guess if you're hungry enough dog food wouldn't be so bad. But you're really hoping for a can of soup or stew.

It's easy to dump on Sean Burroughs because he's not very good. He doesn't hit for power, and he's not exactly known for his speed or defense. After playing well enough in the hitter's league of the Pacific Coast League he earned a promotion in May when the team seemed to be without direction. His original signing was greeted with all the warm welcome we've come to expect around here, but I won't embarrass anyone specifically.

So little did we care about Burroughs arriving that he didn't even warrant his own story. He was just another misfit toy brought in by Kevin Towers, and we hadn't yet begun to believe the team was going anywhere but down.

It's easy to go to Baseball Reference and dismiss Burroughs after looking at his 2011 stats. WAR? Ha! OPS+? What little to speak of! Slugging, home runs, batting average, did Sean Burroughs do anything at all that warranted his continued existence on the team? The short answer is: yes.

Whether you agree with the concept of the pinch hitter, it is impossible to deny that the basic value of the role is whether the batter gets hits. Walks are acceptable, but the batter is brought in specifically to extend the inning. Batting average alone is a difficult measure in this situation simply because of the limited number of AB's. So if we're going to compare pinch hitters, batting average will tell only part of the story.

Burroughs had a decent, if not spectacular batting average as a pinch hitter at .286. Where he did excel was in generating hits. He ranked second in the NL with 16 hits, and had 20 less AB's than the leader, Ross Gload. Where Burroughs did not excel was any amount of power or actual run production. His 16 hits generated only 3 extra base hits, and 3 RBI's. Yes, the latter number is largely dependent on who bats in front of him, but it doesn't change that he is well below other pinch hitters (which topped out at 15).

He only started 14 games, so it is difficult to assess his contribution in this area. As a pinch hitter, and especially one that hadn't been in baseball a year ago, he did just fine. His remarkable comeback from the depths of who knows what to getting a pinch hit in the 9th inning of the deciding game of a playoff series is the stuff of legends. Regardless of how you feel about Burroughs as a player, it's tough not to feel a little for him as a person.

Baseball, like all sports, is a meritocracy. In most cases we want it to be this way, because we want to believe that the best will succeed. Sometimes a little extra story is layered on top, but for the most part your sob story won't get any play if you can't play. There are many who will feel calloused toward Burrough's journey. But remember that he made it back, and he contributed. It might not have been enough to get anymore responsibility than pinch hits, but he's still living it.

What he needs to work on for next season is more power, even if it's just extra base hits. Singles are fine and all, but he needs just a little bit more. Overall, though, I have to give him a Meets Standards.

Snakepitter Grades:

Sprankton: C+
You’ve got to hand it to Sean Burroughs. After being essentially useless for the first half of the season, he suddenly emerged as a decent enough pinch-hitter who was mildly entertaining to watch run. He launched himself into Yuniesky Betancourt territory during the second half of the season with a very respectable .688 OPS and he did just enough good deeds to label himself as a valuable pinch-hitter. Batting 16-61 off the bench is nothing flashy but it could have been a lot worse (see Russell Branyan... yikes). Yeah, the four GDPs and the terrible walk rate are bad, but seriously, did ANYONE expect Burroughs to do better? There’s also this...

Jim: A
Lance Berkman won the NL Comeback Player of the Year, to predictable whining that it should have been Ryan Vogelsong or Pablo Sandoval. Wrong. Coming from much, much further back was Sean Burroughs - you didn’t see them eating cheeseburgers out of garbage cans in 2010 (well, not Berkman or Vogelsong, anyway...). And that’s where this grade comes from. Sean shouldn’t have been playing in the majors. Hell, he shouldn’t have been playing beer-league soft-ball. That he ended the year stranded in scoring position, in the ninth inning of the deciding NLDS game, after a key pinch-hit, was miraculous.

Let’s not over-egg the pudding. Burroughs blew chunks in his first stint with the team. After coming up on May 18; in 23 games, mostly off the bench, he had no walks and one extra-base hit. In hindsight, his flailing wasn’t a surprise, since he hadn’t seen major-league pitching in over five years, and when we needed a DH, Burroughs went back to Reno. Afterr he returned in July, much to all our amazement, he didn’t suck, and hit .279 thereafter. Sure, no-one will mistake him for Matt Kemp - but, I repeat, people: cheeseburgers. Out of garbage cans. Going from there to the post-season = Grade A.

Burroughs basically went through Nicolas Cage’s filmography, and not just by re-enacting Leaving Las Vegas. He certainly wasn’t a Lord of WAR or particularly Kick-Ass, but he did play his part in Raising Arizona.

ZM: B
As annoyed as I was for much of the season at Burroughs’ continued presence on the roster, I have to agree with Jim: the fact that Burroughs was even in a position to suck for a major league ballclub is pretty remarkable. The last time Burroughs had a major league at-bat before this season was 2006. Think about how long ago that is in baseball terms: in 2006, the Diamondbacks’ starting catcher was Johnny Estrada and Claudio Vargas was their third-best starting pitcher. It’s been a while

And while Sean Burroughs was not particularly good for most of the season, he was downright serviceable by the end. His batting line after the All Star Break was .281/.313/.375. On its own, that isn’t going to turn any heads, but when you consider that in 2010, Diamondback pinch-hitters hit a combined .218/.282/.279, you start to see Burroughs’ value. Ultimately, these grades are done compared to expectations at the beginning of the season, and at the beginning of the season the name "Sean Burroughs" could not have possibly been any further from my mind. Thus, he gets a B. He wasn’t great, but at the end of the day he wasn’t too terrible for a guy who hadn’t swung a bat in the majors for five years.

Kishi: C+
It’s a little difficult to properly grade Burroughs, I think. I almost want to give him two grades- a B and a D-. When he was bad, he was awful, and those times really seem to stick out in the mind. But he had some good stretches- hitting .350/.381/.475 in August, at a point when the team really needed him to step up as a pinch hitter, probably helps his case a bit. And while he only had one hit in the playoffs, it was a timely one. Add in that a pinch hitter is a pretty rough position to judge- because one extra single in ten at-bats (which may be fifteen games) turns you from a failure to a success. But, after a rough start, I think he was a useful addition to the team, and at relatively little cost.

Tweet Comment 58 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I also give Sean an A

He’s overcome a lot to get to where he was at this season. He could still be rotting somewhere in Vegas if it weren’t for his courage to give baseball another shot and if it weren’t for Kevin Towers. Sean persevered his off-the-field trials and tribulations and came back to play in the majors down the stretch! That’s a remarkable feat in itself and he should be commended for that. Also, he came through when we needed him to a la pinch hitting. I think he did fine and despite being sent back to Reno recently, I think he will work hard this offseason to get himself back up here next season whether it’s by talent or other reasons. I do hope at some point we’ll see him in a DBacks uni again.

I got sprayed by Ryan Roberts!!!

by Rockkstarr12 on Oct 27, 2011 1:26 PM EDT reply actions

I thought we were grading Burrough's perfomance

not his “story”

by Craig from Az on Oct 28, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I believe

that while we were taking his performance into account as a major part, we were also not grading everyone the exact same way, i.e. we won’t grade JUp and Burroughs on the same curve

Oh where oh where have my Dbacks gone? Oh where oh where could they be!

by imstillhungry95 on Oct 28, 2011 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Solid B

Did better than expectations, but would have earned an A from me if his RBI total was in double figures.

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Oct 27, 2011 2:12 PM EDT reply actions

C+

C for being replacement-level in the regular season, as that’s the expectation of a guy called up on a minor-league contract. Miraculous story about how he got that minor-league contract in the first place, and great for him, but if you don’t think he’ll at least be replacement-level, you don’t bring him up in the first place. He was exactly that, and meeting expectations = C in my book. The ‘+’ comes in for the big hit in Game Five. Yeah, that might be generous to give a guy a grade bump for one plate appearance, but a) it wasn’t a cheapie hit, he lined one up and sprayed a frozen rope into the outfield, b) it was off a damn good pitcher in Axford, and c) it was in the biggest plate appearance of his season. Putting a good swing on in that situation is big-league.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 27, 2011 2:14 PM EDT reply actions

hate to rain on your parade

but that was a jam shot bloop single- counts the same as hitting a one hopper to the right fielder

New England Patriots: 5-1 against the Dolphins, Chargers, Bills, Raiders, Jets, and Cowboys

by freeland1787 on Oct 27, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Really?

Hmph, my memory of the play must be distorted by the excitement of being there. Oh well. Still go the bat on the ball against Axford. :-P

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 27, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

D

A neat trick, given everyone’s expectations were met or exceeded, but still a D. Another neat trick is leading the club in negative bWAR. Think about that. You’re “all” gonna give Melvin Mora an F (or the enlightened among you, who appreciate his glove, a D or D-), yet Mora and Burroughs hurt the team to a comparable extent.

Sean’s improbable and entertaining (see Sprankton’s vid clip, above), he got better as he went along, and soco’s writeup is marvelous, but I think Dan made the key evaluative point:

if you don’t think he’ll at least be replacement-level, you don’t bring him up in the first place

At least I dont think so. Unless KT’s psychological plan was to make the rest of his young roster feel as if they “belong” after watching Sean make the team. Nobody can feel like the Dbacks’ worst player as long as Sean’s around. That may’ve been his real value, as a mascot figure, helping others feel good about themselves.

by Diamondhacks on Oct 27, 2011 3:22 PM EDT reply actions

Mora and Burroughs hurt the team to a comparable extent.

Mora salary: $2,350,000
Burroughs salary: $414,000
Even if their performance was the same, Mora should receive a lower grade because of this. Burroughs hit .412 over an extended period (34 games) at Reno, with a better OPS than anyone else called-up from there bar Wily Mo Pena, so hard to argue he didn’t deserve the chance on merit.

"We have to resist it. Do whatever you have to. Cross your fingers. Say a prayer. Think of a basket of kittens. But do not give in to the fear..."

by Jim McLennan on Oct 27, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Did I say

Mora should be graded higher, or the same, as Burroughs? No.

You’re the one who gave Burroughs an A. I actually enjoyed your writeup, but will enjoy your Mora grade even more.

by Diamondhacks on Oct 27, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions

"Mora and Burroughs hurt the team to a comparable extent."

That was what you seemed to be basing your D grade on.

"We have to resist it. Do whatever you have to. Cross your fingers. Say a prayer. Think of a basket of kittens. But do not give in to the fear..."

by Jim McLennan on Oct 27, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions

i think you're being too nitpicky

it is comparable, if you read it as Burroughs deserves a D and Mora deserves an F

i think the main point, is that saying Mora cost $2 million more than Burroughs doesn’t justify a Burroughs = A grade, unless you plan on giving Mora like a B.

the other thing is, i think you’re giving too much credit to the Burroughs sob story. yeah, he was eating cheeseburgers out of garbage cans. but he put himself there. the guy was a premier draft pick before that.

you don’t give someone an A in their high school senior year in class, just because he was the valedictorian of middle school, started doing drugs freshman and sophomore year in high school and completely tanked his grades, rehabbed for a year, and by senior year, ended up “improving” and entering the bottom quartile of the school’s population.

by blue bulldog on Oct 27, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Though apparently, the "enlightened" will not be giving Mora an F...

I don’t think I have enough information to pass moral judgment on whether Burroughs “put himself there”. And to me, it’s not relevant. To quote the introduction:

The grades given will not be absolutely related to performance, though this will obviously be a factor. They will also be based on expectations for the player, and also his role on the team. So Justin Upton won’t be getting graded on the same curve as Sean Burroughs.

Assessing the degree to which a player should take personal responsibility for any lowered expectations is not a factor. .

In terms of his role, I think Burroughs performance was what would be expected from a back-up infielder. But in terms of expectations, I doubt anyone would have thought at the start of the year that he’d be called upon to pinch-hit in the ninth inning of a decisive playoff game. In terms of surpassing expectations, Burroughs was off the freakin’ chart. Seriously.

"We have to resist it. Do whatever you have to. Cross your fingers. Say a prayer. Think of a basket of kittens. But do not give in to the fear..."

by Jim McLennan on Oct 27, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

disagree

unless you have a very different definition of surpassing expectations than i do

“I doubt anyone would have thought at the start of the year that he’d be called upon to pinch-hit in the ninth inning of a decisive playoff game.” This is only true, because noone thought we’d be in the ninth inning of a decisive playoff game this year.

Essentially you can think of it this way. There was some probability that Burroughs was going to make the major league roster at some point this year. I’d have said that the probability of that happening was fairly high, because KT loves players who used to play for him. There was some probability that Kirk Gibson was going to use him as a pinch hitter. I’d say the probability of that was fairly high as well. Then there was some probability that in a pinch hit appearance, Burroughs would be able to get a bloop single. Probability for this is probably quite a bit lower. But nothing in this chain of thought says anything about Burroughs “surpassing expectations” through one pinch-hit appearance in a playoff game, which is what you seem to think warrants him an A.

If you don’t think the degree to which a player should take personal responsibility for lowered expectations matters, then you should establish a bright line for when Burroughs’s expectations are set, and this bright line seems intuitively to me to be set at the moment we signed Burroughs.

Under this philosophy, we signed him as a minor league player to be called up as a replacement player in case something didn’t work out for one of our players at the major league level. In his 100+ PA, he performed exactly as those expectations. Namely, he performed at replacement level (based on fWAR). The best you can do with your framework of grading, is to say that Burroughs at best performed at his expectations. I see nothing that suggests he exceeded those expectations.

by blue bulldog on Oct 27, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Disagree with your disagreement

you should establish a bright line for when Burroughs’s expectations are set, and this bright line seems intuitively to me to be set at the moment we signed Burroughs.

I draw the line before that. But even then, the signing seemed like nothing more than a charitable donation to an old friend who had fallen upon hard times. There wasn’t exactly a bidding war for Burroughs’ services, and he hadn’t played any level of pro ball since four games at AAA for the Mariners in 2007.

That’s where this differs from other signings e.g. Wily Mo Pena, Cody Ransom, David Winfree. All the others were full-time players in Triple-A or the majors last season, and so came from radically better circumstances from Burroughs.

Expectations should be based off a player’s previous record, with the most recent seasons weighted most heavily. And I had as much professional baseball experience over the last three seasons as Sean Burroughs. You can’t say that about any other player, probably in the majors – so claiming that expectations were the same as for other minor-league signings seems unsustainable.

"We have to resist it. Do whatever you have to. Cross your fingers. Say a prayer. Think of a basket of kittens. But do not give in to the fear..."

by Jim McLennan on Oct 27, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

your analogy has a huge flaw

nobody would ever give you a contract to be a baseball player, based on your past three seasons. the fact that KT gave Sean Burroughs a contract, means that he had expectations that Sean Burroughs would be worth that contract.

sure, it’s arguable that the contract seems like a charitable donation to an old friend. however, this doesn’t explain why KT didn’t hand a contract to every single player that used to play for him. the contract itself already takes into account the most recent experiences, including experiences in the past three years, and how that reflects the player’s expected value moving forward. you’ll note, at the time of the signing, KT said Burroughs’s agent called him up, he was in shape to play ball, KT verified that, and so signed him to a contract. the past experiences are priced into the contract.

at the point where someone hands you a contract, you can effectively say that you’ve been priced, and you have certain expectations.

for instance, at the moment we signed Burroughs, my expectations were that we signed a replacement level player.

by blue bulldog on Oct 27, 2011 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Burroughs was exactly the same player, with the same skill set, before and after he was signed. Whether he held a signed contract should make no difference to your expectations, rather than an apparent post-facto decision that, “Well, Kevin Towers signed him, therefore he must be q major-league quality player.”

Sp, what were your expectations for Sean Burroughs the second before you heard we’d signed him? That’s what should be the baseline, and for anyone who has been entirely out of the game for 3+ years, they should be extremely low, “in shape” or not.

"We have to resist it. Do whatever you have to. Cross your fingers. Say a prayer. Think of a basket of kittens. But do not give in to the fear..."

by Jim McLennan on Oct 27, 2011 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree that rigidly establishing performance expectations

from player contracts is too simplistic, but I think it’s far more reasonable to expect a veteran player making replacement level salary to perform at or near that level than it is to “expect” that signed commodity to perform like Jim McLennan.

We’re evaluating major league ballplayers here, not Ripken-taught bloggers or drug addled Las Vegas zombies. If we were merely comparing post dumpster achievement within an exclusive pool of LV drifters, I’d give Sean an A too, but at some point, I think he needs to be judged against major league standards and not against the historical crutch of his off the field demons, and for me that point is at or near when he’s a signed player on an MLB roster.

FWIW, I didnt expect him to make the club early on or hit .286 either. Not given that immense layoff. I just think it’s important to come to terms with the fact he’s an unusually limited major league player. Sure, those limitations fuel his populist appeal. I get that. But they also help explain how a .286 hitter didnt help the team win.

Best I can tell, he rather methodically helped the team lose, but that’s a separate debate (ie the C vs D debate). What I’m responding to here is awarding an A to a major leaguer who didnt help you win. It’s not wrong. Give him whatever you want. I just think skid row expectations should be tempered more by the former first round pick’s subsequent run in Reno that, as you noted, may’ve earned him another major league look.

by Diamondhacks on Oct 28, 2011 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions

c'mon, i think you should know better

contract = information. new information = shifted expectation.

i can put it a couple of different ways so that it’s illustrated better. for instance, if KT signed you to a $500,000 contract tomorrow to play 3B for the Dbacks, then expectations of your performance have shifted drastically in everyone’s eyes. it doesn’t matter that you are exactly as you were before you signed the contract. it matters that you were given the contract, which means there is something about you that KT knew that we need to consider in adjusting our expectations of your performance.

like ‘hacks says above, it’s an exaggeration to establish performance expectation from contracts. but it’s the fundamental basis for where expectations are driven from. it’s exactly why you posted Melvin Mora’s contract vs. Burroughs’s contract above. it’s why WAR analysis in terms of value takes into account contract price. it’s why Barry Zito and Eric Surkamp can be the exact same pitcher in terms of results, yet the Giants will despise one and be okay with the other.

anyone can be out of the game for 3+ years, and if someone signs him to a baseball contract, then my expectations are that he will perform up to what that contract represents. essentially, it’s an implicit warranty in the contract.

let me give you another everyday life example. i graduate from a top-tier law school. however, for the next three years, i go and dumpster dive for food. then, for some reason unknown to you, a prestigious law firm hires me for the standard first-year associate salary of $150,000 or something similar (just to keep the parallel the same, let’s say that the hiring partner at the firm is a family friend). then during the course of the year, i perform exactly at the level of a first-year associate, or slightly lower than that.

would you honestly say i exceeded expectations?

by blue bulldog on Oct 28, 2011 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Amongst other flaws in your analogy

When was Burroughs the equivalent of a graduate from a top-tier law school? When he won the Little League World Series? Even if you mean when he was a first-round draft pick, that’s still 1998 – I don’t see how that can be relevant to your expectations, yet where Burroughs was last season is of absolutely no significance.

But to answer the question: hell, yes, you exceeded expectations. Have some more quotes from the piece in question about where Burroughs was last year, because it was far from just eating cheeseburgers:

“I was doing a lot of things that were morally not correct and physically not correct. I was knocking at death’s door. I was flirting with going to jail and getting locked up someplace. It was scary… It was pure insanity.”

“I was kind of like a garbage can. Whatever I had or needed, I would find and take it. … I wasn’t an out-on-the-town type of guy. I would just try to fill myself with as much substances as I could, legally or illegally.”

“I didn’t pick up a weight or walk into a gym for 2½ years,” Burroughs said. “It was just one of those crazy kind of diets where I was drinking eight Slurpees a day and eating an In-N-Out burger whenever I could.”

Now, tell me, would you honestly say your expectation for him should be identical to Cody Ransom, or any other player who signed a major-league contract, because of some alleged “implicit warranty”?

That’s the difference I guess. You choose to ignore entirely what Burroughs did to get himself to the point where he could get a ‘charity contract’. I regard that climb out of the abyss as the most important thing. He won’t get credit for it next year, certainly. But I genuinely think Burroughs is a better candidate for comeback player of the year this season, than Lance Berkman or Pablo Sandoval.

"We have to resist it. Do whatever you have to. Cross your fingers. Say a prayer. Think of a basket of kittens. But do not give in to the fear..."

by Jim McLennan on Oct 28, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

i guess i just think more from a real-life standpoint

as to the analogy, the fact that the person graduated from the top-tier school isn’t relevant to the expectations, to the extent that it doesn’t affect the contract price. i just don’t see how you can think the three-years of trash digging are relevant, but the draft position is unimportant. it seems to me you can either agree both are important, or both are unimportant.

from a rational standpoint, the latter makes more sense.

i can assure you the firm isn’t going to give someone a higher bonus just because they dumpster dived for three years prior to being hired, and started from a lower basis

if you get paid to do something, then you should be expected to do your job. if you are incapable of doing your job, then you performed below expectations. if you did your job, then you performed at expectations. and if you did more than your job warranted, then you performed above expectations.

i honestly think you would agree with this if you thought about it more from the perspective of your own life. if one of your co-workers got a higher bonus than you, despite doing work just as well as or worse than you, just because he used to be a convict before working there a year ago, wouldn’t you find something intuitively unfair about that?

by blue bulldog on Oct 28, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions

i just don’t see how you can think the three-years of trash digging are relevant, but the draft position is unimportant. it seems to me you can either agree both are important, or both are unimportant.

Or you can accept that one happened 13 years ago, so is basically irrelevant now, while the other is what the player was doing for the last three baseball seasons. Expectations for 2011 should, one assumes, be based on previous performances – but primarily on what the player did in 2010, not 1998. Otherwise, we need to sign John Olerud and Kevin Brown, stat.

if one of your co-workers got a higher bonus than you, despite doing work just as well as or worse than you, just because he used to be a convict before working there a year ago, wouldn’t you find something intuitively unfair about that?

Counter-example, but continuing the crime theme. If someone, say, stops a bank-robber, that’s impressive and praiseworthy. But if the person is a 75-year old grandmother, then that’s surely more notable than if that person was a Navy SEAL on his lunch-break. Same deed, but expectations differ.

Similarly, a 2010 replacement level player like Cody Ransom being replacement level is, to me, a good deal less impressive than someone who in 2010 was a junkie vagrant, being replacement level.

"We have to resist it. Do whatever you have to. Cross your fingers. Say a prayer. Think of a basket of kittens. But do not give in to the fear..."

by Jim McLennan on Oct 28, 2011 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I Agree with Jim

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Oct 27, 2011 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I also agree with Jim

I got sprayed by Ryan Roberts!!!

by Rockkstarr12 on Oct 29, 2011 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions

This

when he first came up, I didn’t think he would do anything. At all. He greatly exceeded those expectations

Oh where oh where have my Dbacks gone? Oh where oh where could they be!

by imstillhungry95 on Oct 27, 2011 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions

This whole bWAR for hitters thing

Needs to stop. OPS+ is simply not a good stat. OPS, from its very beginnings, has been a proxy for offensive value, useful because better figures like wOBA hadn’t yet been created, or at least not publicized. Park-adjusting a proxy makes almost no sense. Feel free to go to B-R for their dRAR data in order to compare it to UZR on FanGraphs, but using bWAR as anything other than a rough estimate of value is foolish because of how it categorically underrates contact hitters. Walks are great, but singles are better, and B-R’s WAR doesn’t see a difference.

Burroughs was exactly replacement-level using fWAR, which uses wRC+, which rates Burroughs’ bat as 4.2 runs below average. bWAR’s combined Rbat and Rroe have him as six (with no second significant figure, for some reason) runs below average. With as little as Burroughs played, that’s a pretty surprising difference. B-R also has him as three runs below-average defensively despite the fact that he played 19 games (not all as a starter) in the field. Seems peculiar.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 27, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions

…but using bWAR as anything other than a rough estimate of value is foolish…

same with fangraphs. do you think a “system” that ranks Bloomquist as a plus baserunner, burroughs as a plus defender and the Diamondbacks as the 29th best organization coming into the season is anything other than a ‘rough estimate’?

Burroughs batted about a hundred times, yet you appear to be discounting b-r because they dont signify how many tenths of imaginary runs he hit below average? Seriously? You feel that’s significant?

You prefer wOBA. That’s fine, rough as it is. Burroughs’ wOBA was .278. Lower than Blum, Bloomquist and Russell Branyan, who was basically fired by this GM for being an inadequate left handed pinch hitter.

by Diamondhacks on Oct 27, 2011 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions

You can make a small sample size argument for anything

Because that’s what the fielding point is, but that has nothing to do with the validity of the system over large samples. Regardless of the size of the sample, B-R isn’t going to give you accuracy.

And with Bloomquist, that’s actually not true. It rates Bloomquist as a plus baserunner aside from his base-stealing exploits, which are factored into wOBA in FanGraphs’ system. So basically those runs come from taking extra bases, i.e. going first-to-third, which I actually can buy. In spite of his post-season TOOTBLAN-ing, he was solid during the regular season outside of the whole “didn’t have his foot stapled to first base” thing.

And the Diamondbacks should have been ranked that lowly… we had a mediocre farm (mostly guys in the A-ball ranks) and were the third-worst team in the game last year. That makes sense. What has happened since has been utterly remarkable, but it doesn’t mean that we weren’t in a horrible position a year ago.

And, no, those are actually two full runs off. In, as you pointed out, about a hundred PAs. That’s a pretty big difference considering that players usually contribute runs in a third of their plate appearances, and that number is closer to a quarter in Burroughs’ case.

I’m not arguing he was a saint, but he was solid as a pinch-hitter (the pinch-hitting discount needs to be considered when comparing Burroughs to Branyan this year). For a replacement-level minor-league filler guy, that’s worthy of saying he met expectations, not that he was some sort of value-sucking vortex.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 28, 2011 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Similar to the Bloomquist discussion

I’m more questioning some of your rhetoric than your final grade. We’re off one letter without clearly imposed criteria – no big deal. But when you declare this “foolish”, “rough estimate” bWAR stuff for hitters “needs to stop” and then base, or at least justify, Burroughs’ replacement level case on 115 PAs of fWAR, might I suggest that maybe such practice and preaching is what "needs to stop.’’

The truth is I’m interested in what both systems, and you frankly, have to say, especially in the composite, but am quite wary of the limitations of each across such tiny samples. I’m wary of my own limitations as well – although generally assuming wOBA was more refined than OPS+, I didnt know about its baserunning breakdown, so thx for that, and the ph discount for Sean is another solid point.

But from Dave Cameron on down, fangraphs tends to be a citadel of young, insightful guys compromised by eagerness to pretend they understand baseball more than they do. I didnt bring up the 29th org ranking to say they were “wrong”. We were all wrong, to varying degrees. I mentioned it to reinforce, for you, just how “rough” their processes are. In retrospect, that ranking mostly “makes sense” for those invested in fangraphs’ orthodoxy. Mediocre farm? Tell it to Josh Collmenter and Paul Goldschmidt. Miley and Shaw can listen in too. The truth is, we werent in a “horrible” position then, except in superficial political terms. We were in a challenged but reasonably competitive position, and I and other uneducated dopes said so at the time.

fWAR suggests Sean Burroughs (with his eight runs and eight rbis in 115 PAs) had slightly more seasonal value than X Nady (28 runs, 35 rbis in 223 PAs) and that’s assuming the defense and baserunning essentially washed out, as fangraphs does. How much confidence can one assign to that, in terms of assessing past (actual) performance?

In my view, the .273 ba saved Burroughs from being tarred a gurgling vortex (ie F), but no pinch hitter in baseball hit into more double plays. Indeed, as I’m sure you’re aware, Sean managed more GIDP than walks, mustered extra bases as often as Halley’s comet and may be the least valuable .273 player around. For the first left handed option off the bench, or 25th player or whatever we slot him, that doesnt quite meet my positional expectations. Personal expectations, given his harrowing Slurpee excesses? Sure.

I’m just saying that SB is painfully one dimensional, and that one dimension was BA (not even OBP). Thirty five year old Augie Ojeda had to finally hit .190 and see his defense tail off, in 2010, to be quite this useless and was at that point, gently escorted from the game.

by Diamondhacks on Oct 29, 2011 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions

The distinction for me

Is that the 115 PA of Burroughs fWAR is the best data we have to portray how effective Burroughs was. Any amount of bWAR is never the best data we have to portray how effective anybody is. That’s why I feel that bWAR needs to stop being cited for hitters, as it is inherently flawed, regardless of the sample.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 29, 2011 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Remember slumping after our road trip in August with Phillies, Braves, then the Nats?

That HR sparked a nice win streak and helped us secure the NL West.

All points well made (sucked bad when he sucked, money spent). If he doesn’t come back, I hope he can find a home with another team or take those hard lessons learned and not end up dumpster diving. Overall, for the dollar, I hope he’s back next year.

by Augdogs on Oct 27, 2011 4:01 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

The correct answer is B-.

/McLaughlin mode.

"Hey, why don't you people watch the game?"-my mom after viewing a wave going around Chase Field.

by Reynolds rapper on Oct 27, 2011 4:29 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I give him a B+

He was good for what we needed him to be. A .286 batting average for a pinch hitter is acceptable, and he accomplished quite a bit. He did what we expected to do in the first half of the season, and in the second half exceeded them quite nicely. It even got to the point where I didn’t dread him being called up as the pinch hitter.

Oh where oh where have my Dbacks gone? Oh where oh where could they be!

by imstillhungry95 on Oct 27, 2011 5:41 PM EDT reply actions

He proved his value by demonstrating the ability to (Moneyball people cover your eyes)

a clutch hitter.

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Oct 27, 2011 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions

My eyes! Oh, the humanity!!

Horrible exaggerations aside, I do think there could be some merit to the idea that, given the experiences of Burroughs’ life, “high-pressure” situations in baseball seem much less stressful to him given his perspective on the world and the game.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 27, 2011 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

after you spend a a year (or was it two) of your life hunting through garbage cans for your dinner, the ‘high pressure’ of baseball probably seems a little meaningless

Oh where oh where have my Dbacks gone? Oh where oh where could they be!

by imstillhungry95 on Oct 27, 2011 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly

He gave us the needed (though not always ’big) hits when we needed them

Oh where oh where have my Dbacks gone? Oh where oh where could they be!

by imstillhungry95 on Oct 27, 2011 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Moneyball is dead.

Big market Moneyball took its place. Big market moneyball allows the book of Beane to be relaxed a bit.

"Hey, why don't you people watch the game?"-my mom after viewing a wave going around Chase Field.

by Reynolds rapper on Oct 27, 2011 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions

It's not dead

It just did what most major “thought revolutions” do – it got incorporated into the established way of thinking and created a new, unified system that is better for all and employed by most front offices.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 27, 2011 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions

But it is dead as a way for small market teams to compete.

Part of the reason Beane could get players like he did is because people weren’t using those measures and that way of thinking. Now WAR is actually an expensive stat.

It’s used now as an organizing principle for big money clubs so they don’t become the Yankees.

"Hey, why don't you people watch the game?"-my mom after viewing a wave going around Chase Field.

by Reynolds rapper on Oct 27, 2011 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions

i think

if you consider “Moneyball” to represent the idea of identifying market inefficiencies and taking advantage of market overvaluations and undervaluations

then Moneyball is still very much alive

by blue bulldog on Oct 27, 2011 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Moneyball lives on

in the hearts of young people everywhere whose dream is to trade a starting pitcher for a journeyman infield prospect.

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Oct 27, 2011 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Still bitter about that Garland trade

Despite it having literally zero material repercussions for either team?

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 28, 2011 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions

That's not the point

that stupid trade proved to me that JB had no business making executive baseball decisions. And it did help the Dodgers after the trade was made.

The reason why there are empirical rules is that they’ve been derived over the course of decades of good and bad decisions, and generally, trading a starting pitcher for a utility player DURING a game IN THE SAME DIVISION is a stupid move. Glad JB is GM’ing the Padres now.

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Oct 28, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

You have to trust your scouts there

If they think there’s a chance Abreu becomes more than a utility guy. In hindsight, we got nothing for six starts of Garland, but we were pretty hamstrung. It was a waiver-deadline move, so there’s a limited market and we wanted to get something for him. You also are forgetting the point that Garland was awful in the D-backs clubhouse, so there’s an element of chemistry-based addition by subtraction here, regardless of how Abreu’s career progressed. Even if we got nothing, it was probably a good idea on a team that was going nowhere to get rid of Garland one way or another. So why not let some other team foot the bill for the rest of the year?

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 28, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

we traded away nothing of substantial value

and got back nothing of substantial value

this seems to me to be a weird trade to be rankled about

by blue bulldog on Oct 28, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

NASCAR seems to think it’s indicative of Byrnes’ inability to be a GM. :-P

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 28, 2011 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions

You're studying law, right?

principles and traditions count. Consider how the UCC was promulgated; the courts very much take into consideration an industry’s practices, traditions and language when deciding a dispute. Baseball is no different. It has it’s own practices and traditions, and several of those were violated in one very stupid inning.

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Oct 28, 2011 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions

wow

1) Bravo – I’m assuming you studied law like 10+ years ago, and are no longer in the legal field. The fact that you can still whip out the UCC and the fact that courts use “usage of trade”, “course of performance/dealing” to interpret contracts is really impressive. I actually just learned this about a week ago.

2) Counter – This isn’t always true though. There are plenty of exceptions in Contracts law where industry practice doesn’t inform interpretation of a contract. Also, in Property law, while oftentimes custom has a bearing on court rulings, it’s almost universally the case that the court emphasizes it’s the rationale behind the custom, not the fact that it is custom itself, that leads to the proper rule.

3) Name Drop – Just curious, since you cited the UCC, but do you know who Marvin Chirelstein is?

by blue bulldog on Oct 29, 2011 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions

New York versus normal places

in much of the country, UCC is ratified as statute, and the courts are bound by the wording of the law, and not it’s ‘spirit’ or ‘intention.’ This is certainly more true today than it was fifteen years ago, thanks the USSC’s welcome swing to the right.

3) The name isn’t familiar to me – but then again, I never really paid attention in class anyway. I was way too focused on flirting with the former UC Davis cheerleader sitting next to me in Contracts and Civil Procedure (hi Joy!).

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Oct 29, 2011 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions

But jokes aside

you make a valid point.

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Oct 27, 2011 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions

If you use that definition, then KT was moneyballing

since WAR is overvalued and KT used undervalued characteristics to get a winner.

This would make Michael Lewis and Beane blush.

"Hey, why don't you people watch the game?"-my mom after viewing a wave going around Chase Field.

by Reynolds rapper on Oct 28, 2011 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions

what on earth are you talking about?

the Dbacks 2011 WAR gave us a projected 95 wins

we won 94 games

there are many ways to argue that WAR is inaccurate whatnot, but the 2011 Dbacks are most certainly not an argument against using WAR to estimate the value of a team

by blue bulldog on Oct 28, 2011 2:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I think he meant

In how this team improved upon its 2010 WAR total so dramatically with a series of moves that would have been estimated to have added a much smaller WAR total to the 2011 club than the actual improvement actually showed.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 28, 2011 2:57 AM EDT up reply actions

That's precisely what I meant.

"Hey, why don't you people watch the game?"-my mom after viewing a wave going around Chase Field.

by Reynolds rapper on Oct 28, 2011 5:33 AM EDT up reply actions

I give him a B

by AzDbackfanInDc on Oct 27, 2011 6:54 PM EDT reply actions

C+

He really seemed to turn it around there in the end, and actually seemed to be a factor in the dugout. When he was called back up I was very disappointed, but I think now I’ll be disappointed if he isn’t back next year to PH. I’d definitely take him over Blum, and he’ll come cheaper.

by BigLeagueAZ on Oct 27, 2011 10:59 PM EDT reply actions