Should the D'Backs Tender a Contract to Joe Saunders?

by freeland1787 on Oct 18, 2011 3:59 PM EDT

The biggest unknown in the offseason for the Diamondbacks is whether they should tender a contract to Joe Saunders. In 2011, Saunders went 12-13 with a 3.69 ERA in 212 innings while earning a $5.5MM salary. Concern with Saunders being able to repeat his #'s in 2012 is the main reason there is uncertainty with Saunders. With 12 wins and 212 innings, Saunders' salary could exceed $8.5MM, which would be too expensive for the D'Backs Front Office. Using advanced metrics to evaluate Saunders' performance in 2011 shows he had some good luck with a .271 on balls in play, a 1.6 K/BB ratio (4.58 K/9), a 4.78 FIP (4.38 xFIP) while posting a 1.0 WAR season (good for $5MM). At 30, Saunders could be on the decline and non-tendering him may be the logical choice. On the other side of the argument, Saunders did pitch well at the end of the season at posted good #'s overall. I would non-tender Joe Saunders because his salary is getting too expensive for the production he brings.

If the D'Backs do indeed non-tender Joe Saunders, these are the best in-house options to replace him-

Wade Miley- Miley throws a 90-94 mph Fastball with sink, a 77-79 mph Curveball, a 80-82 mph Slider, and a 78-82 mph Change-up. Miley throws from the left side and posts similar #'s to Saunders, except for the $450K league minimum. Miley has experience in the starting rotation, starting 6 games for the Diamondbacks in 2011.
Jarrod Parker- In his only regular season start in the majors, Parker blanked the Dodgers for 5 2/3 innings with 1 K and 1 BB. Parker throws a Fastball (92-96mph), Curveball (76-80mph), Slider (80-83mph), Change-up (81-84mph), and Sinker (90-92mph).
Trevor Bauer- Bauer is the organization's 1st round pick in 2011 (3rd overall) and is already in AA. Bauer has only made 9 starts in the minors, with 6 amazing and 3 horrible starts. With the inconsistently he has shown in his last 4 starts in AA, it can be a turn-off for the D'Backs to keep Bauer at the Major League Level after Spring.

Jarrod Parker is the best in-house option in terms of salary and the organization's confidence is high on him. The best moves to make with the $8.5MM include

Sign Miguel Montero to an extension (3yrs/$22MM is my starting point)
Arbitration Raises for Ryan Roberts, Micah Owings, and Brad Ziegler
Re-sign Aaron Hill (2yrs/$10MM is my starting point) or sign a Free Agent 2B/3B

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Comments

They should tender him.

I think he could have a career year. It’s good to have him in case somebody gets injured. Plus if Bauer and Skaggs look unbelievable in spring training then we can easily trade Saunders.

This would be a good poll.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 18, 2011 4:29 PM EDT reply actions

I don't think

keeping him around in case of injury is a good reason. You’d be buying some very expensive insurance.

With his performance this year, it’s difficult to non-tender him. So you have to suck it up and deal with overpaying him for a year or he has to be traded.

Goldy Watch: 48 games, .250/.333/.474

by Jdub220 on Oct 19, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

It's not the main reason.

But it is a good reason…

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 19, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I see both sides

The team has a lot of exciting prospects on the cusp of the bigs, Parker, Corbin, Bauer and Skaggs are all ready or nearly ready and Saunders is “blocking” them. That’s the argument for letting him walk in a nutshell.

The argument for keeping him is that pitchers can be fragile creatures, as this franchise has witnessed first hand (see Webb, Brandon, alternate example Marquis, Jason) also, just because you’re young and ready doesn’t immediately guarantee success either. As many of you are saying, there’s a difference between AAA, AA and the majors, less margin for error. Saunders has proven himself at this level, the others haven’t.

Financially, it appears that Joe is a modest value that usually provides a modest return, since this franchise is unlikely to go after Jose Reyes or someone else approaching that caliber, I could see where some could say that it makes more sense to reward those players that have already performed for this franchise by extending Joe and Miggy and kicking cash around the table to those that have earned it..

If all goes well and the young arms adapt and find their place, great! If no one gets hurt, fantastic! It’s not a guarantee tho and with the potential cost to team in not sustaining a winning product on the field could be a huge deterrent (note how long it took the fans to come back after the letdown that was 2008-2010), heck, they couldn’t sell out the playoff games. I can see where the team would find an insurance policy like Joe as being in their best interests to hedge their bets both ways. If the youngsters develop according to plan, great, we can find a good deal at our leisure. If not, we still have an innings eater in place that gives the team a chance to win who isn’t complete dogmeat (see Gallaraga, Lopez, Petit, et al) while they give the youth a bit more time to ripen.

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on Oct 19, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Have to tender him

He has trade value. No reason to squander that.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 18, 2011 4:39 PM EDT reply actions

barely....

as your previous post nicely pointed out….

but yeah i guess we can afford to tender him. i just think we need to be serious about shopping him during the winter meetings/after free agent frenzies

by blue bulldog on Oct 18, 2011 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions

KEEP SAUNDO!!!

I got sprayed by Ryan Roberts!!!

by Rockkstarr12 on Oct 18, 2011 9:11 PM EDT reply actions

Hmmmm, I wonder what Rockkstarr's opinion is...

;-)

RIP Dan Wheldon. Once again, racers and fans alike have been reminded of the dangers of auto racing

by imstillhungry95 on Oct 18, 2011 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I really don't know

If we keep him with the intent to trade him this offseason or at the deadline next year, we run the risk of being stuck with a pitcher we might not want, who’s making 8 mil, and is blocking top prospects. If we let him walk away, we lose any barrier we have in case one or more of our top prospects doesn’t work out the way we want/are expecting them to

RIP Dan Wheldon. Once again, racers and fans alike have been reminded of the dangers of auto racing

by imstillhungry95 on Oct 18, 2011 10:56 PM EDT reply actions

If we don't want him on the team, then he can be easily dealt to another team.

The Yankees and Red Sox would take him in a heartbeat.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 18, 2011 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know what happened to the ORIGINAL comments that were here...

But you all know my take on this subject. In the meantime, Kevin Towers makes the calls and all the decisions so I’m leaving it at that!

I got sprayed by Ryan Roberts!!!

by Rockkstarr12 on Oct 19, 2011 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions

trade him

"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi

by CaptainCanuck on Oct 18, 2011 11:40 PM EDT reply actions

Tender that contract

3.69 ERA from a mid to back rotation guy is too valuable to ignore.

Is it mid-February yet?

by NASCARbernet on Oct 19, 2011 12:34 PM EDT reply actions

This

Plus veteran experience

I got sprayed by Ryan Roberts!!!

by Rockkstarr12 on Oct 20, 2011 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions

If they can settle in the 6-7M range

then its worth tendering him- $8M seems a bit too much

New England Patriots: 5-1 against the Dolphins, Chargers, Bills, Raiders, Jets, and Cowboys

by freeland1787 on Oct 19, 2011 12:45 PM EDT reply actions

What's an extra 1 million really?

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 19, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

For a team like AZ

It could go towards another good bullpen arm or allocated in the draft

"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi

by CaptainCanuck on Oct 19, 2011 7:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

2 million could get us another Aaron Heilman. Awesome!

The bullpen is fine with Putz, Hernandez, Shaw, Paterson, Ziegler, and Cook or Miley. Knowing KT, he would probably just use it for minor league deals. I doubt they would use it for the draft.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 19, 2011 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions

why do you doubt

they would use it for the draft?

by blue bulldog on Oct 19, 2011 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions

because the talent they will have to choose from in the draft

is not the same talent level as #3 or #7

New England Patriots: 5-1 against the Dolphins, Chargers, Bills, Raiders, Jets, and Cowboys

by freeland1787 on Oct 19, 2011 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions

25th

New England Patriots: 5-1 against the Dolphins, Chargers, Bills, Raiders, Jets, and Cowboys

by freeland1787 on Oct 19, 2011 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Late rounds provide plenty of opportunities to spend money

Late-round millions are important to have, not just early-round millions.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission (SDSPBC). SDSPBC is a totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 19, 2011 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions

So?

You act as if the draft is a waste of time if you don’t own a top pick. Even late first picks are important, and it’s not like it’s set in stone that the 25th pick will yield the 25th best player. Guys fall because of signability all the time, and that extra million could be what pushes negotiations to continue.

"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi

by CaptainCanuck on Oct 20, 2011 12:33 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Becuase Kevin Towers signs a boatload of players to Minor league contracts

every single year. I’m pretty the organization is more concerned about their number 3 starter, their second basemen, and resigning Montero over putting money into the draft. And maybe the owners might…GASP! might take the money for themselves!

No that would never happen.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 19, 2011 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions

okay

i’m really curious to see what our financials look like in 2011

but in 2010, the Dbacks had an operating income of $6.2 million, with a payroll of $75.5 million. in 2009, the Dbacks had a slightly negative operating income, with a payroll of $73.5 million.

part of the increase in 2010 came from increases in revenue. we can probably expect another increase in revenue in 2011, because of the two playoff games. the other reason why operating income should increase, is because operating costs decreased, as with no more debt, they don’t have to use money to finance that debt. payroll was also at $56.5 million last year.

what i’m trying to show you, is that payroll can increase to $70 million next year (which would give us around $20 million in surplus to work with, or $29 million in surplus if we don’t sign Saunders) and the owners would still be making quite a bit in earnings, likely more than what they made in 2010.

some of that surplus money, like $5 million on 10 minor league contracts, resigning Montero, which would add like $3-5 million on this next upcoming contract, Aaron Hill at 2B would be another $5 million, and you’d still have a shit ton of money left over to use in the draft.

by blue bulldog on Oct 19, 2011 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I think they've said it will remain the same.

Unless there’s a special case, like David Wright.

To bring it back to my original point…I don’t think the hangup with Saunders will be the extra million he is supposedly not worth.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 20, 2011 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

*I'm pretty "sure" the organization

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 19, 2011 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Sounds good in theory,

but injuries can and will happen. Not only that, but they could act like relievers and complete differ from expectations.

"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi

by CaptainCanuck on Oct 20, 2011 12:30 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Tender, trade, eat money

If we let him walk, what will we do with that extra 8+M? Barring a surprise run at one of the top free agents like Reyes, we’ll just be putting it back into the owners’ pockets. I don’t think that Saunder’s release is the lynchpin that allows us to extend Montero or someone else.

Instead, lets sign Saunders, use him for a couple months while Parker et al. log a few more minor league innings, and then eat part of Saunders’ salary to bring back a decent prospect. We get to possibly delay service time on our high prospects, and it helps replenish the farm just when those prospects are graduating.

by Counsellmember on Oct 19, 2011 1:52 PM EDT reply actions

I don't think Saunders will effect Parker getting any starts.

If you have Kennedy,Hudson,Saunders,Collmenter in the rotation,then you have Parker more likely to start then Miley IMO. Saunders will block guys like Bauer, Skaggs, and Corbin. So I just don’t think it will effect Parker.

"It was a good death"

by txzona on Oct 19, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I get ya

I think Parker’s future will bear out in ST. If he’s ready, we’ll know it. If there is any cause to hold him down for a month or two, I don’t think it’s a particularly terrible idea. But I agree that if Parker is ready, he should be up in the majors. But sometimes teams don’t always follow the path that is best for winning in the current year.

by Counsellmember on Oct 19, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions