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The Only Team with 5 Players above 3 WAR?  Arizona.

I'm surprised none of the stats hounds have posted this one yet.  Our favorite team with a less-than-stellar record possesses some quality players.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/8/31/1660765/the-only-team-with-five-3+-war

There are a few folks in the forums who think we won't contend in 2011.  To those of you who feel that way...why?  With the talent we started the season with, we should be contenders this year.  And the July trades put us in a position to significantly improve our squad this offseason.  I daresay the July trades improved our squad this season, even if it only affected the mentality of the team.

We are going to contend in 2011.  Please vote below, and agree or disagree in the comments.

Poll
How many wins will the DBacks have in 2011?
90+
6 votes
82-89
15 votes
81
11 votes
71-80
15 votes
70 or less
5 votes

52 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 103 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Comments

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Disagree

you don’t fall as far and as hard as we did this season and just brush it off the next season.

Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Sep 1, 2010 4:06 PM EDT reply actions  

We didn't start the season in rebuilding mode

We – players and fans alike – were demoralized early in the season and it affected the play on the field. I just think that our record this year is artificially low due to management and personnel issues.

I think we’re all in agreement that the team will improve next year, the question is “how much?” Perhaps I should put a poll in this fanpost.

by venomfan on Sep 1, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

See: Tampa Bay Rays

2007: 66–96 (worst in majors)
2008 97-65 (A.L. East division champions)

I rest my case…

by NotGuilty on Sep 1, 2010 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

exception,

not the rule

Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Sep 1, 2010 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

didn't mean to hit reply yet...

what were the issues the Rays were facing then to lead them to that record? What kind of changes did they make during 2007 going into 2008? How similiar was their situation to ours today? There are too many factors at work to expect anyone to repeat that feat, imo.

Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Sep 1, 2010 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Rays weren't an exception

Teams underperform all the time. Much like the Diamondbacks have…

The point wasn’t comparing this team to the Rays, it was that what happened last year doesn’t have anything to do with what will happen next year. The past does not predict the future.

by NotGuilty on Sep 1, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I mean...

It has something to do with it. The past tells us that Chris Young isn’t going to hit 60 home runs next year. It also tells us he won’t hit 5.

by Azreous on Sep 1, 2010 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Disagree

We’re currently 23 games back. That’s too much ground to catch up in one season. Even our August record, extrapolated over an entire season, is only 89 wins – and that was heavily dependent on Enright and Hudson’s sub-two ERA.

I’d be looking towards .500 next season, and contention in 2012.

"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson

by Jim McLennan on Sep 1, 2010 4:13 PM EDT reply actions  

It's easy to understand, really.

If Zavada is back in 2011 than we’re definitely championship bound.

Wear your own fur.

by Marc Fournier on Sep 1, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah...

our weightedMustacheAverage (wMA) will be much better w/ KGB and Zavada.

Mr. Science Boy

by DbacksSkins on Sep 1, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

"Be more concerned w/ character than reputation. Character is what you are, reputation is what people think you are." ~ John Wooden

by Rockkstarr12 on Sep 2, 2010 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

"We’re currently 23 games back. That’s too much ground to catch up in one season"

Errrrm… Wut?

I’m pretty sure that the team’s record this year doesn’t count against them next year…

by NotGuilty on Sep 1, 2010 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Where are those 23 additional wins going to come from?

Hoping for them doesn’t get you anything at all, no matter how fervently you wish.

"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson

by Jim McLennan on Sep 1, 2010 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Those additional wins will come from the fact that a team as good as the Diamondbacks can’t continue to underperform as badly as they have from 2009-2010 – The universe won’t allow it. The natural balance of things will work itself out.

The fact that the team is 23 games back now is entirely meaningless to what will happen next year. Every team starts out with the same 0-0 record – We have just as good a chance of winning as anyone else.

by NotGuilty on Sep 1, 2010 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

it's really not as bad as you think it is

for instance, BR pitching WAR (which uses runs allowed, and what you guys have been referencing a lot) says that our pitching this year from a production standpoint generated 1.7 WAR. do you really think our entire pitching staff will combine for around 2 WAR next year? there’s simply no way.

hudson will be 4-5. enright will be 2-3. kennedy will probably be around 2. a league average bullpen is around 2. that’s 8-10 WAR of improvement already. brandon allen in left field is probably a 2 WAR upgrade over parra. so that’s 10-12 WAR of improvement without spending a single dollar on free agency, with our salary sitting at $42 million. i also think that our team can perform even better next year than this year, offensively.

our pythagorean expectation has us at 68.5 wins. 89-90 wins probably gets you to the playoffs. so we need 20.5-21.5 WAR more than what we are getting this year. assuming no moves in free agency, and the offense providing the same amount of WAR as this year, then we are still 8.5-11.5 WAR off. so the question is really, is there a way to get 8.5-11.5 WAR from two unaccounted for starting pitchers, and improving our bullpen so that it gives more than 2 WAR. it’s definitely not inconceivable for us to make the playoffs next year, when we’re only 8.5-11.5 WAR off while spending $42 million (i’m assuming getting laroche for $8 million next year)

like i’ve opined in other posts…i think we’re one 6 WAR ace away.

by blue bulldog on Sep 2, 2010 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

You forget

Kennedy, Enright and Hudson have been worth about four wins already this season in total – so even if they hit your projected marks next season, that’s only about five wins added from the rotation next year, not 8-10. And that’s if we can get #4 and #5 guys to replace Haren and Jackson’s WAR this year (2.5 and 1.9 WAR respectively). And do you really think Hudson will be one of the top ten pitchers in the National League next year? Because last season, only ten managed over four WAR.

I don’t see us getting more than five extra wins out of the rotation, and maybe three from the pen. That leaves us to need 13 from the offense – and we’re already set at just about every position on the field. Upton might be worth a bit more, a full season of a fit Montero too, and Allen may be an upgrade. But nowhere near thirteen added wins.

"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson

by Jim McLennan on Sep 2, 2010 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

??

i think you misunderstood the numbers i was trying to represent

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2010.shtml

this shows that based on runs allowed, INCLUDING what kennedy/enright/hudson have been able to contribute this year, our TOTAL pitching WAR this year was 1.7. my point is once we get away with the negative junk on that list (like…qualls’ negative 2.2 WAR) a full year of kennedy/enright/hudson would be 8-10 WAR. an average bullpen is 2 WAR like you pointed out previously. which means that we’d have a net gain of 8-10 WAR total.

i’m not sure where you got that only ten pitchers managed over four WAR last year in the NL.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2009-pitching-leaders.shtml

shows that the 10th best pitcher in the NL by RA was wandy rodriguez with a 5.1 WAR, so i’m going to assume there were some pitchers in the 4 WAR range (I actually cannot find BR’s WAR by year)

in fact, i can definitely see dan hudson putting up numbers like wandy rodriguez’s 2009 year, though i’m not confident which is why i said hudson would probably generate WAR in the 4-5 range. just look at his numbers this year. his peripherals are strikingly similar (and actually slightly better) than what wandy did his 2009 year

by blue bulldog on Sep 2, 2010 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was using fangraphs WAR

Sorry for the confusion. I like BR WAR for measuring actual performance, but if we are talking about projecting future performance, that’s a different kettle of fish entirely…

But I see a new fanpost on that, so I’ll move over there!

"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson

by Jim McLennan on Sep 2, 2010 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think clubhouse unrest

had more of an effect on our W-L record than our level of talent. And if we can shave a few points off our worst-in-the-majors bullpen ERA, it will swing 10-20 wins our way right there.
 Someone with access to stats and an interest in figuring out the metric might be able to tell us exactly how many wins an improved bullpen would provide.

I don’t like to say stuff like this, especially since it’s opinion-based…but y’all are wrong. I predict we win the NL West next season. Our current roster is much better than a 23-games-out-of-first-place squad of suckness.

by venomfan on Sep 1, 2010 4:39 PM EDT reply actions  

y’all are wrong. I predict we win the NL West next season.

I want whatever it is you’re smoking. Sounds like some good shit.

Mr. Science Boy

by DbacksSkins on Sep 1, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 37

by Jdub220 on Sep 1, 2010 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Erm...

smoking’s bad, kids!

Mr. Science Boy

by DbacksSkins on Sep 1, 2010 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Improving any bullpen

Will now provide a team 10-20 wins, unfortunately.

This year, our ‘pen has thrown 362 2/3 innings with a 5.91 ERA. Drop that a point to 4.91, and you save a few decimal points over 40 runs. Take 40 runs away from the 716 we’ve allowed and you’re left with 676 runs allowed – compared to 613 scored. I can’t need to recalculate the Pythag since I don’t have my calculator, but I would lay down a lot of money that it doesn’t come close to ten wins.

Dip that ‘pen ERA to 3.91, and you’re still giving up 636 runs, and we are a sub-.500 club. A 3.41 ERA gives up 616 runs, and you’ve still got a losing record by just a tick.

And we can’t expect regression/a free agent or two to make up the rest of the difference. We’re just sadly not a winning club. Give it a little bit of time and we’ll be grand.

http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 1, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

613-676

Equates to a 74-88 season. Cutting a run off our bullpen ERA would be worth 4-5 wins.

"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson

by Jim McLennan on Sep 1, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is there a "Blown Lead" metric?

ERA is irrelevant if we keep the lead. Any idea how many leads our pen blew this year?

by venomfan on Sep 1, 2010 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

So, every time the 'pen comes in,

You expect them to give up exactly enough runs to not blow the lead? Bullpens give up runs at inopportune times – even good ones.

Pythag with ERA is the proper metric to use in this instance.

http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 1, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Someone voted 90+?? lol

All Cubs fans are drunken assholes, but not all drunken assholes are Cubs fans.

-Dbacksskins

by justin1985 on Sep 1, 2010 5:02 PM EDT reply actions  

I did

we have a good team, certainly capable of beating the other yahoos in the NL West. I’m still baffled why we are as far down the hole as we are this season – most of our players are pretty good individual talents.

by venomfan on Sep 1, 2010 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was

actually going to clip that story for today’s SnakeBytes, but forgot, but apparently Devin noted it anyway.

Mr. Science Boy

by DbacksSkins on Sep 1, 2010 5:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Mrch 30th piece by Jim
I’ll start by throwing out some other numbers, and it quickly becomes clear that the projections reflect the uncertainty over Arizona.

    * Baseball Prospectus has us at 83 wins,
    * CAIRO gives Arizona 81.5 victories this season,
    * Marcel agrees: 81.5 wins for the D-backs
    * CHONE projects 81 victories,
    * Fangraphs.com’s Fan Projections expects 87 wins
    * Xei’s Dodger Sims site calls it at 82.7 in the desert

just a point of reference for how many thought our season would go.

Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Sep 1, 2010 5:07 PM EDT reply actions  

the position players are not the problem

the stat people at fangraphs are very very high on our core of position players

it’s our pitching that hasn’t caught up. highlighted by the fact that our relief pitching is at -1.5 WAR right now. an average pen gets you about 4 WAR a year. so if we think we can have an average pen next year, that’s a 5-6 WAR jump.

clearly, that’s not enough for us to compete. my impression is that we still need a 6 WAR ace to compete next year. this is why most people think our best year to compete will be 2012, when jarrod parker comes up, giving us an insanely cheap but effective rotation of parker, hudson, enright, kennedy, and corbin/miley. while no guarantee that parker is a 6 WAR pitcher, i think most people expect him and hudson to be in the 4-5 WAR range. and the cheapness of our rotation in 2012 means we can spend money to upgrade elsewhere.

by blue bulldog on Sep 1, 2010 5:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Left Field

Is also a clawing void of useless turds. 0.2 WAR for Gerardo Parra in over 100 games? Ick.

http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 1, 2010 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really?

I thought LF had improved once Parra took over for Jackson.

My eyes are seeing things differently than your numbers are telling you I guess.

Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Sep 1, 2010 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

His defense is pretty good

But an OPS+ of 66 is less than impressive.

"Robin, some people die of old age. Some people get crushed by a tank shaped like a giant Rubber Ducky. That's life."

by kishi on Sep 1, 2010 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

but we should just trade Justin Upton and put Parra in RF

at least he cares about the team.

/legitimate comment from azcentral

by JustAJ on Sep 1, 2010 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I saw that comment a couple of times recently.

good grief, where do these people come from?

Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Sep 1, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

ah, yeah. definetely not impressive

I sit in the LF bleachers, so I see the defense and focus more on that than his AB’s.

Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Sep 1, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

You're a fortunate one

His AB’s are painful to observe.

http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 1, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol,

I’m getting that impression.

Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Sep 1, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Think you might be a bit on the average pen

Looking at the 2009 NL numbers, the median pen was about 22 runs better than replacement, so only about 2.2 WAR.

"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson

by Jim McLennan on Sep 1, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Which would make sense

Considering what is written above on getting 4-5 wins from a ‘pen with an ERA one point lower than it is now – that would be around (a bit worse than, I think) average and we’re in the hole -1.5 WAR already.

http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 1, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

hm

i guess you’re right. i did overvalue the average pen.

by blue bulldog on Sep 1, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I

like this thinking!

Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Sep 2, 2010 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

I wish

I could rec this more than once.

Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 37

by Jdub220 on Sep 2, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's nice to read some positivity on here

But I can’t see us turning it around in quite as spectacular a fashion.

Yes we have a decent team but compare our side to the one likely to be turning out for the Padres/Rockies/Giants next season. As promising as our rotation now seems they’ve still to compete with far deeper rotations from most of our division rivals and if the McCourt saga ends soonish then there’s a good chance we could see a Dodgers spending spree as well.

If the last two seasons have taught us anything whatsoever then it’s to not try and place too much faith in projections and expectations and to rely more on what we see ourselves from opening day.

There’s still a good 7 months until opening day and a whole raft of things could happen to alter the makeup of this lineup and the future of the franchise. Just look at Washington? one minute they had Strasburg leading the charge and 1 pitch later the franchise is looking at another season in the doldrums.

This time in 2009 we were all patting Billy Buckner on the back after a great end to the season and looking forward to a rotation of Webb, Haren, Mad Max that would help push us over the top. Qualls finished the season strongly in the closers role and the ’pen in general was filled with young arms ready to dominate… but how much of that came to pass?

I’m not saying we were wrong to predict better from 2010 but it proves the point that there’s little point projecting events that will be happening nearly a year from now.

On paper we once again have reasons to be optimistic in 2011, but at the moment the evidence suggests to me that without some very very good management. luck avoiding injuries and poor form from our division rivals, we should be building towards .500 rather then having loftier dreams to be dashed next season.

Time for another drink then?

http://www.wimbles.wordpress.com

by Wimb on Sep 2, 2010 6:19 AM EDT reply actions  

Errr...

Qualls didn’t finish the season strongly in the closer’s role?

Mr. Science Boy

by DbacksSkins on Sep 2, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

His knee

did not either.

I got nothin'.

by Bcawz on Sep 2, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Neither did mine

Knee injuries are no laughing matter ;(

"Be more concerned w/ character than reputation. Character is what you are, reputation is what people think you are." ~ John Wooden

by Rockkstarr12 on Sep 2, 2010 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bah

Im thinking end of 2008 :D the suckiness rolls into one :(

Time for another drink then?

http://www.wimbles.wordpress.com

by Wimb on Sep 3, 2010 6:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

The past month has given us false expectations.

We’re 17-13, which would be 92 wins over a full season. But that would also require Enright and Hudson to go 43-5 in a full season, and that ain’t happening. It’s like the Rockies, who rode Ubaldo’s 15-1 record to be one game off the pace on July 10, with a 49-38 record. Since then, Jimenez has gone 2-5, and the Rockies are 20-25 – truth is, Colorado just weren’t that good.

"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson

by Jim McLennan on Sep 2, 2010 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

This

Is the perfect analogy.

http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 2, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

colorado isn't that bad

they got hurt with injuries that they weren’t expecting (jorge de la rosa, important members of their bullpen)

the point is we aren’t as far away from contending as we might think. we are probably a 500 team as long as we get an average bullpen next year and keep laroche. that would put us at a salary of 45 million or so. all we’re saying is that we have the financial flexibility to try to compete should we choose to do so

by blue bulldog on Sep 2, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Colorado

also had some other stuff happen, like Miguel Olivo suddenly remembering that he’s Miguel Olivo and not Albert Pujols. Waking up from amnesia’s a bitch.

Mr. Science Boy

by DbacksSkins on Sep 3, 2010 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

I still chuckled

The second time I looked at this. Which is absolutely sufficient for a rec.

http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 7, 2010 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am Phil.

And you, sir, are Miguel Olivo.

Mr. Science Boy

by DbacksSkins on Sep 7, 2010 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hahahaha!

Sucks to be you, you have kidney stones like twice a day.

http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 7, 2010 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Replace Lopez

with someone who doesn’t consistently absorb Bartolo Colon-type poundings, and the Hudsright combo won’t have to go 43-5.

by venomfan on Sep 2, 2010 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Factoid

Rodrigo Lopez has the same number of quality starts as Ian Kennedy.

Just sayin’…

"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson

by Jim McLennan on Sep 2, 2010 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

But check out their non-quality starts

It’s true that both have 12 QS out of 27 starts. But Lopez’s Non-Quality Starts have been much worse. Lopez has allowed 5 or more ER 8 times in 27 starts, while Kennedy has only done that 4 times.

So more of Lopez’s starts end up as team losses (9-18) than Kennedy (14-13). Some of that is due to run support, since Kennedy has received more runs (5.51 to 4.82), but it’s also because Lopez has pitched significantly worse than Kennedy.

by Amit on Sep 2, 2010 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

What do you expect from a #5 starter?

I think that winning 1/3 of their games is about par for the course, especially for someone being paid little more than league minimum [650 K]. It’s easy to breezily suggest replacing him with “someone better,” but it’s not as simple as suggested.

"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson

by Jim McLennan on Sep 2, 2010 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

An ERA over 5.00 needs to be replaced

A team cannot be content with a starter with an ERA over 5. There are 43 starters in the NL who have made 25 or more starts. Of that group, Lopez ranks #42 in ERA (ahead of only Kevin Correia), and #43 (last) in FIP. Pitchers who pitch as poorly as Lopez usually don’t to get make so many starts. Teams will usually give someone else a chance.

If he was a young player who had a chance to improve, I could see giving him more starts, but I just don’t see any benefit for running Lopez out there any more this year, or next.

by Amit on Sep 2, 2010 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

i think gibson will keep playing the Green Lantern because he's a veteran

that being said, i guess i’d like to see kroenke get a shot at starting this year. not really sure what i expect from kroenke, but he could be another cheap back end piece for next year.

by blue bulldog on Sep 2, 2010 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

You answered your own question

“43 starters who have made 25 or more starts in the NL.” That’s less than 2.7 per team. Who are making the other 2.3 starts per team? Because that’s where you find the back end of the rotation pitchers, spot starters, etc, with whom you should compare Lopez. And of those 96 players with 24 or less starts in the NL, Lopez’s ERA+ ranks =44th of 96. Lopez is a back of the rotation guy, to be sure. But when compared to other back of the rotation starters, he’s been durable and reliable.

You’re basically being too demanding. Know how many NL teams had five pitchers make 25 starts with an ERA under five last year? Two: the Rockies and Cubs – and the latter didn’t make the post-season. The three division winners – Phillies, Cardinals and Dodgers – each only had three such pitchers. Or take a look at the back-end of the 2001 D-backs rotation, and you’ll find 39 starts from Brian Anderson and Robert Ellis, at a combined ERA of 5.43. They did alright, as I recall…

"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson

by Jim McLennan on Sep 3, 2010 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

i think you're asking the wrong question though

the question you really want to ask, is how many teams with rotations where the 33 starts of their “number 5” (whether that be a combination of three minor league pitchers, or just rodrigo lopez) with a higher than 5 ERA ends up making the playoffs

versus how many teams with rotations where the 33 starts of their “number 5” results in a lower than 5 ERA end up making the playoffs

clearly the second scenario should result in more playoff berths, but i have no idea how significant that difference is

by blue bulldog on Sep 3, 2010 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

I looked at this

A little bit a couple of seasons ago. The conclusion for the NL was that the bottom 20% of starting innings pitched, were on average( by pitchers with an ERA of 5.15 or worse. Now, obviously, that isn’t the playoffs, but neither was that park-adjusted.

If having an ERA of five from your #5 starter is the biggest issue your team has, then you’re in fine shape.

"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson

by Jim McLennan on Sep 3, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Robert Ellis????

Have no memory of this person at all.

The ever talking BA on the other hand, remember him fondly. Didnt he iron his forehead or something once?

I got nothin'.

by Bcawz on Sep 3, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wow

17 games started for us. Went 6-5. That was his glory year too. (Robert Ellis that is.)

I got nothin'.

by Bcawz on Sep 3, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

I remember Robert Ellis

I saw him pitch both in Tucson with the ’Winders and here as a Dback

"In the book of life, the answers aren't in the back." ~Charles M Schulz

by Rockkstarr12 on Sep 6, 2010 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

"In the book of life, the answers aren't in the back." ~Charles M Schulz

by Rockkstarr12 on Sep 6, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

2009 Dodgers, Phillies, and Cards are good examples

Yes, they did not have 5 starters who made 25+ starts with an ERA under 5. They weren’t satisfied with the back of the rotation, so they kept trying new pitchers.

Dodgers – Started with Eric Stults at the back end of the rotation. After an ERA of 4.80 after 9 starts, he was replaced by Jeff Weaver, and eventually they brought in Padilla and Jon Garland.

Cardinals – Todd Wellemeyer made 18 starts with an ERA of 5.58, and then was replaced by Brad Thompson (4.84), Mitchell Boggs (4.19), and eventually John Smoltz (4.26).

Phillies – Jamie Moyer made 22 starts with a 5.47 ERA, and then was replaced. The Phillies tried guys like Rodrigo Lopez (!) before bringing in Pedro Martinez and Cliff Lee.

Even in the 2001 Diamondback example, why did we use so many back-end starters – Anderson, Ellis, Batista, Lopez, Reynoso, Witt, Bierbrodt? Because we weren’t satisfied with the results.

So the question is, how bad does a pitcher have to pitch before you try to upgrade? Obviously, if you’re a contender, you’re more likely to trade for someone better. But if you are not a contender, then when? What’s the point of sending out a 35 year old coming off a 5.24 season? Wouldn’t you you rather see someone like Kroenke, Torra, or Mulvey get a chance? Even if they are worse, at least there is some potential upside there.

by Amit on Sep 3, 2010 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

So, who exactly do we have that would be an upgrade over Lopez?

Cardinals. Also had Kyle Lohse make 22 starts, whose season ERA+ of 87 was almost identical to Lopez’s. He started for them all the way through August and September, posting an ERA in those months of 5.95.

Phillies. They could only replace Moyer because they gutted the farm system for Cliff Lee. Still, Moyer made five starts for them in August and September, plus a six-inning relief appearance, and threw over 67 second-half innings. Not really “replaced” at all.

Wouldn’t you you rather see someone like Kroenke, Torra, or Mulvey get a chance? Even if they are worse, at least there is some potential upside there.

Mulvey has already thrown 160 innings, so I see no point in overtaxing him in meaningless September games, Torra isn’t on the 40-man roster, so we’d need to drop someone if we wanted to use. Kroenke, I imagine we may well see – but as a replacement for one of our young pitchers once they hit their innings limits. Currently, Kennedy is at 165 and Enright 167 innings of work in total – replacing one of them makes a lot more sense than Lopez.

"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson

by Jim McLennan on Sep 3, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

40 Man Roster

We currently only have 39 players on the 40-Man roster (by my count), plus Zavada could be transferred to the 60-Day to free another spot.

I agree that restricting the innings for Kennedy, Enright, and Hudson (152 IP) would be a good idea.

by Amit on Sep 3, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also

Torra gave up 17 earned runs in his last three starts, which spanned 16 2/3 innings of work.

I doubt we’re chomping at the bit to bring him up at this point.

http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 7, 2010 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

And Mulvey's a sack of turds

As he’s displayed every opportunity he’s been given to display it at the big-league level.

Kroenke’s a reliever, not a starter, in the long-term.

Upside? Meh.

http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 7, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes

but rodrigo has been replacement level as a pitcher overall

and his batting is actually really really hurting us, more so than the average pitcher
this second point is slightly moot because we also got the benefit of haren this year going well above average pitcher batting level

by blue bulldog on Sep 2, 2010 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

"Be more concerned w/ character than reputation. Character is what you are, reputation is what people think you are." ~ John Wooden

by Rockkstarr12 on Sep 2, 2010 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

"Colon" and "poundings"

should not be found so close together in polite company.

Mr. Science Boy

by DbacksSkins on Sep 2, 2010 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Of course,

fans want us to trade two of those five players because they suck and/or are worthless.

by Azreous on Sep 2, 2010 5:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Imagine Mark's potential

If he didn’t waste so many AB’s?

Crazy.

by Husk on Sep 3, 2010 4:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

It makes me sad

that this wasn’t a sarchasm.

Mr. Science Boy

by DbacksSkins on Sep 3, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Five 3+ WAR

with nothing to show for…. People will start catching on soon.

by Husk on Sep 3, 2010 4:31 AM EDT reply actions  

this

doesn’t even make sense. Catch on to what? That we should trade the only productive players we have?

by JustAJ on Sep 3, 2010 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

...

what does “with nothing to show for” mean?

the 3+ WAR is exactly what’s being shown……it’s why we are a 65 win team right now instead of a 50 win team.

by blue bulldog on Sep 3, 2010 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Catching on to what?

That we need to pitch better?

If you’ve got a problem with WAR, then present very specific reasons why, not just “hrmph… IT DOESNT PENALIZE FOR STRIKEOUTS AND IT GIVES TOO MUCH CREDIT FOR OBP AND NOT ENOUGH FOR BATTING AVG AND RBIS AND WINS”

Mr. Science Boy

by DbacksSkins on Sep 3, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

lulz

I love that all three comments say the same thing. However, like the contrarian I am, I’m going to say something different:

Ireland is a very very very rainy country and I wish it would be sunny more often here because it would be a happier place overall.

http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 7, 2010 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Full of drunks. :P

Have you been to Scotland in your travels?

Per Mare, Per Terras

by justin1985 on Sep 7, 2010 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nope.

Germany, London, and Ireland.

True story: there were like five students outside of a dorm singing “I love beer, beer is good, I love to drink beer, I love beer,” etc. etc. Then a girl started rapping.

http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 7, 2010 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have.

I had a 20 minute conversation with a docent in the National War Museum of Scotland, in Edinburgh Castle, and to this day, I have NO IDEA what he said, beyond asking whether my scarf was the Bruce tartan.

Mr. Science Boy

by DbacksSkins on Sep 7, 2010 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Now you know how I've felt for the past ten years

There’s a reason I stick to the Intenets, y’know…

"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson

by Jim McLennan on Sep 9, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

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