Off-day discussion: NL end of season awards
by Jim McLennan on Aug 23, 2010 9:12 PM EDT
in Randomness
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PrintNo Diamondbacks today, as they travel to the coast, and prepare for the road-trip against the Padres and GIants. So, instead of that, figured it might be fun to discuss who we think will win the end of season awards in the NL - the races potentially seem a lot closer than last year, where Pujols was a unanimous choice for MVP. Of course, there's also the question who will win, and who should win, which are not necessarily the same thing.
After the jump, you'll find the leading contenders for MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year. Let the discussion begin!
The general criteria used was Wins Above Replacement (the version provided by baseball-reference.com). For MVP and Cy Young, it was the top five or six, depending on where a convenient break fell. However, for Rookie of the Year, which is particularly open to both pitchers and hitters (yeah, I know the MVP technically is too, but...), I listed all qualifying players who are currently in the top 50 by WAR in their particular category.
Most Valuable Player
| Rk | Player | WAR | Tm | PA | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adrian Gonzalez | 5.4 | SDP | 534 | 458 | 73 | 136 | 25 | 79 | 69 | 92 | 0 | 0 | .297 | .389 | .515 | .904 |
| 2 | Albert Pujols | 5.0 | STL | 533 | 453 | 84 | 143 | 32 | 89 | 75 | 54 | 12 | 3 | .316 | .411 | .592 | 1.002 |
| 3 | Aubrey Huff | 5.0 | SFG | 510 | 434 | 77 | 128 | 21 | 70 | 64 | 60 | 5 | 0 | .295 | .388 | .523 | .911 |
| 4 | Ryan Zimmerman | 4.9 | WSN | 482 | 415 | 71 | 125 | 24 | 70 | 60 | 82 | 3 | 1 | .301 | .388 | .540 | .928 |
| 5 | Angel Pagan | 4.8 | NYM | 482 | 434 | 64 | 128 | 10 | 54 | 39 | 76 | 30 | 6 | .295 | .351 | .452 | .802 |
| 6 | Joey Votto | 4.7 | CIN | 500 | 424 | 86 | 137 | 29 | 86 | 70 | 96 | 10 | 4 | .323 | .422 | .592 | 1.014 |
Cy Young
| Rk | Player | WAR | Tm | G | CG | SH | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | ERA | ERA+ | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roy Halladay | 6.5 | PHI | 26 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 200.0 | 181 | 54 | 48 | 25 | 180 | 2.16 | 191 | .241 | .269 | .351 | .620 | 68 |
| 2 | Josh Johnson | 5.9 | FLA | 25 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 166.2 | 138 | 44 | 42 | 38 | 162 | 2.27 | 182 | .225 | .273 | .324 | .596 | 63 |
| 3 | Tim Hudson | 5.6 | ATL | 25 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 171.2 | 131 | 42 | 41 | 56 | 91 | 2.15 | 186 | .217 | .290 | .295 | .584 | 63 |
| 4 | Adam Wainwright | 5.5 | STL | 26 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 7 | 183.1 | 136 | 45 | 42 | 43 | 165 | 2.06 | 194 | .211 | .262 | .308 | .570 | 57 |
| 5 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 5.2 | COL | 25 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 4 | 169.1 | 121 | 52 | 50 | 66 | 156 | 2.66 | 167 | .205 | .290 | .311 | .601 | 60 |
Rookie of the Year
| Rk | Player | WAR | Tm | G | CG | SH | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | ERA | ERA+ | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Jaime Garcia | 2.8 | STL | 24 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 141.1 | 123 | 51 | 38 | 54 | 111 | 2.42 | 165 | .233 | .304 | .306 | .611 | 70 |
| 34 | Jon Niese | 1.9 | NYM | 23 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 138.0 | 141 | 56 | 51 | 43 | 110 | 3.33 | 120 | .262 | .324 | .396 | .720 | 99 |
| 35 | Barry Enright | 1.9 | ARI | 10 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 59.1 | 50 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 35 | 2.73 | 163 | .230 | .295 | .392 | .687 | 80 |
| 39 | Jonny Venters | 1.8 | ATL | 58 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 63.2 | 38 | 14 | 8 | 27 | 69 | 1.13 | 355 | .175 | .277 | .212 | .489 | 38 |
| 50 | Stephen Strasburg | 1.6 | WSN | 12 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 68.0 | 56 | 25 | 22 | 17 | 92 | 2.91 | 141 | .221 | .268 | .328 | .596 | 65 |
| Rk | Player | WAR | Tm | PA | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Jason Heyward | 2.8 | ATL | 450 | 378 | 62 | 100 | 14 | 57 | 62 | 95 | 9 | 5 | .265 | .378 | .452 | .830 |
| 50 | Buster Posey | 1.9 | SFG | 301 | 276 | 38 | 94 | 9 | 46 | 18 | 35 | 0 | 1 | .341 | .385 | .518 | .903 |
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Comments
I love you guys,
but you have this weird love affair with sabermetrics.
Bring back the Baltimore Chop!
by dima1109 on Aug 23, 2010 9:40 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Somos
stat nerds. Then some wanna-be stat nerds, like myself.
Anyway, my choices:
- MVP: Albert Pujols, mostly because he’s just as awesome as the rest, and if I had to choose one guy to have on my team this year to go to the Series, I’d take him. Is that what I should be judging on? Probably not. Moving on.
- Cy Young: Wainwright. Dude’s just absolutely ridiculous, and one brutal start hurt some of those stats significantly.
- Rookie of the Year: Gotta be between Garcia, Posey, and Heyward. Had Posey played the full season, I’m fairly certain he’d be the runaway choice, but Heyward’s been there the entire time to prove consistency. Garcia’s also been awesome, and I had to track his stats quite a bit (had him on my fantasy team, best FA pickup evar). I remember him being crazy lucky. Checking now, his FIP is still quite a bit higher than his ERA… his HR/FB is pretty low, and overall he seems to be a bit on the lucky side, but you really can’t argue with production. I’d probably take Garcia.
I think Latos would be a lock for RotY, personally, had he not, y’know, been disqualified by just 2/3 of an inning.
My value over a replacement poster is approximately 10.5 runs.
I think Latos would be a lock for RotY, personally, had he not, y’know, been disqualified by just 2/3 of an inning.
Good, because there are very few baseball players I hate more than Mat Latos
Bring back the Baltimore Chop!
Whoa... he was??
PadresFAIL.
Mr. Science Boy
by DbacksSkins on Aug 23, 2010 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm still mad about 2004
Pujols: .331/.415/.657 46 HR 123 RBI St. Louis Cardinals 105 wins
Bonds:: .362/.609/.812 45 HR 101 RBI Giants 91 wins
Sure the slashes favored bonds but Pujols had HR, RBI, wins, pretty much every measure that has been used as a criterion for MVP.
So as far as I’m concerned, he could win one that he wouldn’t deserve and that would be fair.
As for Cy Young, I like Jorge de la Rosa. :)
No Gutierrez, Sherlock!
by Reynolds rapper on Aug 24, 2010 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Really?
I don’t remember that vote, but looking at the stats it appears to me that Bonds was head and shoulders above Pujols that year (even assuming the .609 OBP was a typo and it was really .409). I mean, c’mon – 100+ points difference in OPS? Not sure how much that would change in OPS+, but I don’t think SF is a big hitters park.
Of course, I always disliked Bonds and love Pujols, but this doesn’t even look close.
BTW – team wins is maybe even a worse criteria (IMO) for hitters than pitchers wins for pitchers. Who cares?
by Craig from Az on Aug 24, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
263 vs 172 in favor of Bonds
in regards to OPS+ in 2004 for the two. I also go with Bonds without a doubt. And believe it or not, that wasn’t a typo: the dude’s OBP was .609…
1.442 OPS vs
1.072 OPS
… just ridiculous.
My value over a replacement poster is approximately 10.5 runs.
No typo
He had 120 intentional walks that season, out of 617 plate appearances.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
Holy Crap!
I didn’t think it was close when I thought that was a typo and Bonds OBP was .409. That OPS is an all-teim single season best, according to baseball reference.com.
by Craig from Az on Aug 24, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/6/25/1536419/on-fielding-independent-pitching
this is an interesting article comparing fangraphs WAR and baseball reference’s WAR……sort of a tangent but an important one because the top lists will be different
my own personal opinion is that fangraphs WAR is more reliable for position players (at least what I’ve read suggests UZR is a better defensive metric than TZ)
so….from that perspective, i’d probably vote for Votto as MVP. his fangraphs WAR ranks second, (Zimmerman is 1st, but I just can’t vote for a player on a non-contending team) and also Votto is leading the reds to the playoffs when no-one expected them to (if i had to use BR’s WAR, then the analogous player would be Adrian Gonzalez)
just like the article said, i think for retrospective purposes, BR’s WAR is good for pitching. i’d pick Halladay for Cy Young. he pitches deep into games (that 200 IP is ridiculous) and he strikes out tons of people while not giving out walks. expectations are higher too for him, because he’s in philly, and the rest of the rotation is not that amazing.
ROY is really tight between jaime garcia, heyward, and posey in my mind (fangraphs has heyward and posey at 3 WAR already). the fact that posey has gotten so much WAR in so few at bats gives him the edge i think. if he can keep up this torrid hitting, i’d have to give him the ROY. besides, it’d be pretty cool to have a catcher get the ROY
TZ has some verrry sketchy ratings
Like Ryan Zimmerman as a career (career) +7-run defensive third baseman. The eye-test demonstrates quite easily how incredibly wrong that is. It does the same thing to Carl Crawford.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 24, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I hope Barry Enright wins Rookie of the Year
by Skii on Aug 23, 2010 9:50 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Me too, but it'll never happen.
Also, I had no idea he had more WAR than Strasmas.
Mr. Science Boy
by DbacksSkins on Aug 23, 2010 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't either
possibly because Strasburg’s FIP is so much lower than Enright’s. Oh, well, I like the results Enright gets, so what if he’s having a lucky 2010?
It always makes me wonder
When I look at a pitcher’s stats, and about a quarter of his runs are unearned.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
Garcia or Venters?
Venters is a relief pitcher. I’ve got no idea why he’s got porous fielders when he’s out there. The sample, it is small. (And if we’re talking rookie relievers, where’s John Axford?)
The Cardinals defense is horrible.
Rich Harden making his first start back from the DL
Held the Twins hitless through 6.2 innings, but he got pulled at 111 pitches.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
And they get to the ninth
Before they give up a hit to Joe Mauer.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
Still,
if you’re gonna have someone break up a no-hitter…
Mr. Science Boy
by DbacksSkins on Aug 23, 2010 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, yeah.
Mauer makes sense.
Mr. Science Boy
by DbacksSkins on Aug 23, 2010 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Let me illuminate you mortals on some legit stats....
VORP = Overrated
WAR = Old News
UZR = Waste of Time
Fieryness = Only Stat that Matters
Manager of the year: Gibson (Even without the Fiery Mustache)
Cy Young: Barry Enright (Have you seen the Fiery beard?)
Rookie of the Year: Barry Enright (Seriously that beard is awesome!)
MVP: Albert Pujols (I mean he IS Albert Pujols…)
It's not enough to just live, you gotta live for something.
by Dallas D'Back Fan on Aug 23, 2010 10:15 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs
Whaa?
Did someone set Albert Pujols on fire or something??
Mr. Science Boy
by DbacksSkins on Aug 23, 2010 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
We need to file a complaint with SBN
No longer should recs turn comments green. Instead, it should turn them fiery.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
by kishi on Aug 23, 2010 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
With the proper HTML magic
they should just make the comment actually burst into flames.
My value over a replacement poster is approximately 10.5 runs.
by Wailord on Aug 23, 2010 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Brilliant!
It's not enough to just live, you gotta live for something.
by Dallas D'Back Fan on Aug 23, 2010 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
SOME OF US ARE COLORBLIND, YA JACKWAGON.
/upset
Mr. Science Boy
by DbacksSkins on Aug 23, 2010 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Just so you know,
The red light is on the top and the green is on the bottom. lol :P
Nice strikeout!
The positioning helps.
Sometimes, the green light looks almost white, though.
Mr. Science Boy
by DbacksSkins on Aug 23, 2010 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
If San Diego...
wins the West it has to be Gonzo. He’s carrying that team with no protection. I think Doc takes the CY ecspecially in that yard although Josh Johnson is ridiculous.
Hamilton/Price in the AL.
Of their starting lineup, AdGon, Torrealba, Headley, and Vegetable
all have OPS+’s above 100, led by AdGon’s blistering 156. As a team, their OPS+ is 100, meaning, after compensating for Petco, they’re exactly MLB-average, and above average in the NL.
The Dbacks, OTOH, have two more hitters in their “typical” starting lineup who are above average in OPS+, but as a team, we’re down at 92, meaning we’re below average in both MLB and the NL.
Mr. Science Boy
by DbacksSkins on Aug 23, 2010 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
It's
a sad day when the Padres are a better hitting team than the D’backs, A-gon or no A-gon.
'Skins, I forbid you from hitting on Ramona!
unbelievably
DBacks have more walks than the Padres. Or maybe it is believable, because the more I think about Mark Reynolds the more I think he’s a good ol’ Three True Outcomes sort of player.
MVP- Votto
Cy young- wainwright
ROY- Posey just because everyone loves him.
IT IS HIGHH, IT IS FARRR, IT ISSS caught by the catcher.
Not everyone loves Posey
He was criticized recently by one of his own broadcasters for not enough defense
"Be more concerned w/ character than reputation. Character is what you are, reputation is what people think you are." ~ John Wooden
by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 24, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
that's because
broadcasters tend to know little about baseball…
plenty of ppl in sf were calling for posey to stay in the minors in order to learn to call a game….because….um…..the game can’t be called from the bench anyway?
by blue bulldog on Aug 24, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
ROTYL?
What is the L for?
It's not enough to just live, you gotta live for something.
by Dallas D'Back Fan on Aug 23, 2010 10:31 PM EDT reply actions
ReplyFail
It's not enough to just live, you gotta live for something.
by Dallas D'Back Fan on Aug 23, 2010 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep
It's not enough to just live, you gotta live for something.
by Dallas D'Back Fan on Aug 23, 2010 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
To take from Kids in the Hall
I see what your problem is! Look, you’re confused by their names, because they all sound like questions.
Well, I’ll explain it to you. See, on first base is Hu, Samuel Hu, and you’re probably not familiar with that name because his grandfather was Chinese. And on second base is Hector Watt, W-A-T-T Watt, and that’s not so unusual because James Watt invented the steam engine. And on third base is Phil Iduno, I-D-U-N-O, and if you do say that fast, it does sound like the phrase ‘Gee, I dunno,’ but it’s actually Iduno, Phil Iduno.
Bad doormat! No stock options!
You're the worst straight man I've ever worked with! I quit!
I never should have saved you from those seals.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
OMG THERE'S SAUSAGE EVERYWHERE
Mr. Science Boy
by DbacksSkins on Aug 23, 2010 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Because...
she was a lesbian?
Mr. Science Boy
by DbacksSkins on Aug 23, 2010 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Cue crickets...
The Great and Mighty....
by NASCARbernet on Aug 24, 2010 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions
The L is for
“Look, the reply function is being sticky! IT’S NOT MY FAULT!”
:P
Bad doormat! No stock options!
I deserved that
It's not enough to just live, you gotta live for something.
by Dallas D'Back Fan on Aug 23, 2010 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
MVP- Pujols because I can’t endorse a Padres player for….anything.
CY- Wainwright
ROY- Garcia
Nice strikeout!
I'll let you off with a warning...
… this time.
My value over a replacement poster is approximately 10.5 runs.
I HAAAAAATE him.
Goddamned cheating worm.
Mr. Science Boy
by DbacksSkins on Aug 23, 2010 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Chad Qualls
isn’t likely to garner too many votes, either.
The Great and Mighty....
by NASCARbernet on Aug 24, 2010 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Unless the award involves...
“Best Replacement for Grant Balfour” or “Guy Slightly Better Than Dale Thayer”
Just my two cents here
I want Ubaldo for Cy Young (of course he’s my fave NL pitcher that’s NOT A DBACK) and as far as the MVP? ANyone but Adrian Gonzalez…I can’t stand him!
"Be more concerned w/ character than reputation. Character is what you are, reputation is what people think you are." ~ John Wooden
i have nothing intelligent to add to any discussion, so
Aubrey Huff for MVP … because I liked him on the O’s.
My picks
MVP – Zimmerman – I know it probably seems like I’m just giving this award to the highest-rated WAR player according to Fangraphs, but there are legitimate reasons to go with it. Zimmerman’s star defensive status is firmly cemented by his long history of data that enforces just how awesome he is (i.e. we have a sufficient sample, Zimmerman simply kicks ass). And I for one believe it should go to the best player, not a really really really good player on a good team. Who cares if the Nats are bad? Think of how horrifying they would be without Ryan Zimmerman. For a franchise trying to build a fan base that will support the team more often than every fifth day, that is some legitimate value.
Also, some food for thought: On Fangraphs’ WAR list, Votto and Albert Pujols are tied for first in WAR as the top-2 NL first basemen. For third baseman, once you pass Zimmerman’s 6.1 WAR at the top of the list, the second-best third baseman in the NL is Scott Rolen, down at 4.1 WAR – a fantastic player, but a staggering two win difference. There has to be a bit of a “replace-ability” factor.
Cy Young – Halladay – He’s just the best. With all due respect to Adam Wainwright, you can’t simply take out one bad start because it’s tanking his stats. He had that awful, horrendous start, and that’s a part of his season. Halladay has innings, results, metrics, everything. He’s absolutely incredible.
ROY – Heyward – I was originally going to vote Garcia here, despite the fact that Heyward and Garcia are dead-even in terms of BR-WAR and Heyward is solidly ahead of Garcia in terms of Fangraphs-WAR, but I quickly realized I had no real rationality for this choice.
I feel like St. Louis, with the roster they have, should have destroyed their division by now. But they haven’t, and they don’t really appear in a huge rush to grab it by the horns lately. St. Louis shouldn’t be allowing the Reds to stick around. It’s also why I didn’t want to vote Pujols in the end. I’d take Votto over Pujols. Atlanta, on the other hand, is fending off a Philadelphia team that was supposed to be better than them. You can’t ignore that.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 24, 2010 12:00 PM EDT reply actions
i can sort of agree
with the zimmerman pick. he’s almost definitely the best player this year, but for some reason though, my gut instinct says “mvp” should come from a winning team, and not best player….i dunno why, as i have no inclination to do this for other sports.
i also think st. louis is severely underperforming considering their roster…they should have killed the nl central this year and not be behind the reds. on the other hand, i think you are underestimating atlanta. a lot of ppl felt they had a very solid roster going into the year (the ppl who loved their rotation) and philadelphia had a lot of holes (questionable pitching behind halladay, weak bullpen). granted, philly’s been hit hard by injuries, but i just wanted to point out that it was never a given preseason that philly would win the nl east the way almost everyone though st. louis would win the nl central
by blue bulldog on Aug 24, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
A friend and I discussed this the other night
not specifically with Zimmerman, but I had the exact reaction. I told him that I believe the Cy Young should come from a successful club, even though I had no real reason and it was really just a gut feeling. If someone like Billy Butler or Andrew McCtuchen started playing out of their mind, I’d still like a guy like Pujols, even if he was somewhat worse. Obviously, if it’s a no-contest, obviously go with the better guy, but I unfairly give an edge to those who play for winning clubs.
My value over a replacement poster is approximately 10.5 runs.
I really hate that
Not that there is a “right” or a “wrong” answer, but that just makes no sense to me. That is refusing to reward a guy for continuing to bust his ass, grind out the at bats, and perform at a high level just because the rest of the team sucks.
I could make an argument that a great player on a losing team should be given MORE credit, as it is easy to pitch around a guy on a crap team.
by Craig from Az on Aug 24, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
As far as the MVP
I’d love to see Zimmerman get it too. Pujols is in it every year, and I think Ryan deserves it for the season he’s having.
On the CY, as much as I adore Ubaldo, I am betting it’ll be Halladay too.
And for the ROY, I would love to see our very own Barry Enright get it
"Be more concerned w/ character than reputation. Character is what you are, reputation is what people think you are." ~ John Wooden
Pujols vs Gonzalez WAR
Interesting – although Pujols is probably the superior fielder and is ahead of Gonzalez in EVERY batting stat, WAR favors Gonzalez. Has to be the San Diego park factor holding down Gonzalez stats, doesn’t it. Quick check of OPS+ (from baseball reference.com, which takes park factors into account) for each:
Gonzalez: 156
Pujols: 170
Hmm – makes no sense. How does Gonzalez WAR exceed Pujols?
Dunno
on FanGraphs, Pujols wins handily, 5.7 to 4.5.
My value over a replacement poster is approximately 10.5 runs.
weird defensive metrics
BR uses total zone whereas Fangraphs uses UZR…
a lot of ppl think total zone churns out weird results
by blue bulldog on Aug 24, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I hate
fielding metrics. Everyone has hitting and pitching worked out to an extent where they’re consistent, usually very good at predictive measures, and overall accurately represent the value of a player. Fielding metrics are all over the place, and can sometimes just be completely wrong (purely anecdotal, though – just a few occasions where there’s massive variation).
My value over a replacement poster is approximately 10.5 runs.
lol
yeah….fielding metrics are definitely still a bit sketchy
i would argue that while hitting stats can accurately represent the performance of a player (i think wOBA is widely agreed as being really accurate) pitching stats are still debated a lot.
my favorite example is matt cain. dude just consistently outperforms his FIP, severely outperforms his xFIP, and even his tERA (which is supposed to be the pitching equivalent of wOBA) doesn’t accurately reflect his performance
i’m hoping barry enright turns into another matt cain lol
by blue bulldog on Aug 24, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, Matt Cain
it’s so difficult to be a fan of guys like that, as watching them, you’re just waiting for the other shoe to drop the entire time. Not that I’m a Matt Cain fan, but Jaime Garcia was awfully lucky and every time he pitched (he was on my fantasy squad) I was just waiting for a stat correction, but it never came. I traded him, he regressed a tiny bit, but nowhere near the amount I’d expect. I think we all would be pleased if Enright kept this up!
My value over a replacement poster is approximately 10.5 runs.
lol
seriously though. i feel like when i watch matt cain pitch against the dbacks, i can sort of see how he’s outperforming peripherals.
it’s similar to how enright is just good at painting corners. the emphasis is on always inducing weak contact. the really good hitters are still going to be able to go oppo for extra bases on your down and away pitches, but there just aren’t enough good hitters out there to do damage to you
by blue bulldog on Aug 24, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Fielding gives Gonzalez a clear advantage
He’s +6 runs, Pujols -3. That’s close to one WAR [ten runs = one WAR, more or less]. Hitting wise, Pujolis is ahead. Oddly, there seems to be a difference in the way Runs Above Replacement get converted to WAR. Gonzalez’s 51 RAR → 5.4 WAR. Pujols’s 53 RAR → 5.2 WAR. I am guessing that this is Petco runs being more valuable?
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
by Jim McLennan on Aug 24, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
BR has a park factor adjustment
i think fangraphs has one too, but it happens implicitly because one of the stats they use to calculate WAR already takes into account park factor, or something like that
by blue bulldog on Aug 24, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
That surprises me
Pujols is -3 in fielding? I don’t watch him every day, but his rep is he is a great fielding first baseman.
by Craig from Az on Aug 24, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Seems he passed his peak
Fangraphs has him at 1.8 UZR this season, compared to 24.7 in 2007. Adrian Gonzalez is at 4.3 in 2010, so it does concur with the BR.com conclusion, that AdGon is a better fielder this year than Phat Albert.
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
by Jim McLennan on Aug 24, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
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