SB Nation Arizona Editor's Pick
Thoughts on the Summer of 2010
- Hell of a place to work. Truly. Not really a single guy that I can say I was bummed to have to work with. My boss, Greg Salvatore, was a great guy, and other guys I spoke to while there were so easy to work with and talk to, despite being higher-ups – i.e. Derrick Hall, Tom Allison, Mike Berger, and Roland Hemond. I also spent some time talking with Nick Piecoro, who Greg is good friends with, in the press box.
- Working for a baseball team gave me an idea of just how little I really know about baseball with respect to some of these guys, and how much the guys in charge of this team do know about baseball. It’s the type of thing that can get you psyched to keep following the sport and keep trying to soak in as much knowledge from everyone you can. Being able to listen to Roland Hemond telling stories from when he was the GM of the Orioles (to help explain why more teams don’t make waiver claims on players, even if they have interest in acquiring that player through a trade during the waiver trade period – this question popped into my mind when nobody claimed Adam LaRoche even though it would make sense for a team like Tampa to be all over him) is a rare privilege.
- A lot of great players and easy guys to talk to on this team. First interview was Rodrigo Lopez. Also spoke to Kelly Johnson, Augie Ojeda, Rusty Ryal, and Edwin Jackson, all of whom were awesome. EJ was quote gold. Also did some over-the-phone interviews of minor leaguers. You can read all over places like Baseball Prospectus that Matt Davidson earns great reviews for his makeup – I can attest to this. Josh Collmenter also gave me so much insightful material that I wrote a 1,700-word article on him.
- The D-backs’ system is on the rebound in a big way. A year ago, we had a bottom-5 system in baseball. But over the course of that one year, we can already say that Chris Owings, Paul Goldschmidt, Chase Anderson, Charles Brewer, Scottie Allen, and Matt Davidson, all added in the 2009 draft, have improved their prospect status to varying degrees. Also from that 2009 draft class, Marc Krauss, Mike Belfiore, Eric Smith, David Nick, Pat Schuster, and Keon Broxton are basically what we’ve expected. Though Bobby Borchering hasn’t had as much success as hoped, he’s been much better lately, particularly in giving himself a significant difference in his BA and SLG. A.J. Pollock’s injury has been disappointing, but he’ll be back at some point. Jarrod Parker is recovering well from Tommy John surgery.
We’ve added a pair of top-15 prospects in Tyler Skaggs and Patrick Corbin from the Haren trade. We possibly added another in Ty Linton. We signed Wagner Mateo on the cheap after an eye condition cost him a $3.1MM bonus from the Cardinals. More-established guys like Brandon Allen, Josh Collmenter, Wade Miley, Barry Enright, Rossmel Perez, Bryan Woodall, and Wes Roemer continue to improve. Even with occasional disappointments like Bryan Augenstein and Cole Gillespie, this is now a system that is about 25-deep of prospects who could truly become everyday players. And with the seemingly insurmountable odds that a prospect actually becomes what you hope he can, that kind of depth is fantastic to have. This is the type of system that will become a top-5 system simply in a matter of time as these kids reach the upper levels.
- TINSTAPP be damned, we’re stockpiling arms Tampa-style. Tampa obviously had some luck on their side, with most of their young arms panning out, and guys like Jeremy Hellickson, a fourth-round pick, becoming top-line prospects. Heck, it even made them forget how horrifyingly terrible of a #1 overall pick Tim Beckham has been. Everybody we’ve acquired in deadline deals thus far has been an arm – Sam Demel, Patrick Corbin, Joe Saunders, Rafael Rodriguez, Tyler Skaggs, Daniel Hudson, and David Holmberg (we also, of course, have a PTBNL coming back to us from Tampa, and I could see it being a low-minors live arm whose future is in the ‘pen). Then there’s our draft. Although Barret Loux didn’t work out, and I for one am saddened by this (I was looking forward to seeing him at South Bend next year, and he’s a top-10 prospect in our system today if he’s healthy and signed), we added J.R. Bradley, Robby Rowland, Kevin Munson, Cody Wheeler, Blake Perry, Jeffrey Shields, and James Green all in the top-10 while forking out some serious bonus dollars for Perry & Green. Add in Italian Andrea Pizziconi and you’ve essentially got another upper-round arm.
- My idea of a 2011 D-backs roster:
SP1 Saunders
SP2 IPK
SP3 Hudson
SP4 Enright
SP5 Sergio Mitre (FA with starting history, high ground-ball rates, and enough strikeouts to fill the back end, likely to be low-cost)
RP Gutierrez / Rodriguez / Zavada / Collmenter
RP Gutierrez / Rodriguez / Zavada / Collmenter
RP Norberto/Beimel/Ohman/Generic-LOOGY-Du-Jour (got to have one...)
RP Carrasco
RP Demel
SU Vasquez
CL Takashi Saito (if one healthy season doesn’t spike his cost, I’m more than willing to put up with the one or two customary 15-day DL stints and definite possibility for a blowout)
C Montero
1B LaRoche
2B Johnson
SS Drew
3B Reynolds
RF Upton
CF Young
LF Ryal+Allen platoon
C Hester/Free-Agent-Du-Jour
IF Abreu
IF Christian Guzman/Jerry Hairston Jr./FADJ
OF Parra
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Comments
Heck
of an opportunity. Glad you had fun, and hopefully that’ll open up doors for you when you get out of South Bend.
'Skins, I forbid you from hitting on Ramona!
I'd love to.
We’ll see. : )
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 20, 2010 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
You got to interview Augie?
Tell me all about that :)
"Be more concerned w/ character than reputation. Character is what you are, reputation is what people think you are." ~ John Wooden
Great rundown
But Reynolds needs to go, i hope his future isn’t with AZ… Anymore news in JP’s rehab through TJ surgery? Any word on velocity changes or is he still on flat ground?
Why on earth
Does the 9th best 3B in baseball in terms of WAR need to go? Sigh.
Not a clue. Last I heard, he’s going to be all set for the AFL, probably.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 21, 2010 4:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Look
You were gone for a while, so here’s what you need to know: To win, a team needs fiery leadership of fieriness, and possibly mustaches. To win, they can’t have any strikeouts. Ever. In fact, they need the opposite of strike outs. It’s the only way.
Some day, you’ll understand baseball and agree with how this works. Until then…
(Oh, and welcome back!)
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
yeah this year has been one of the worst in recent memories
when it comes to certain types of people. Trolls and such.
yep....
Oh dude and
when we win by 5 run we suck, but when we only win by 1 or 2, it’s totally fine cuz the manager’s doing a better job!
… or something to that effect.
Things ’Skins has in common with foulpole for 400, please. -- soco
by snakecharmer on Aug 21, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
because...
he gets worse every year. Can’t make any swing adjustments and doesn’t seem like he wants to change his approach. Byrnes was very close to trading this guy before he got canned. Unfortunately he was let go about a week too early.
he gets worse every year huh?
OPS + of 109, 95, 123, 105. That is consistent above average hitting. Strikeout numbers do not mean he is getting worse.
yep....
OPS, OBP, SLG, BA
are all down from last year.
‘’Strikeout numbers do not mean he is getting worse.’’
So what does it mean then? He’s getting better?
One year decline doesn't equal "He gets worse every year"
Plus, there’s a little thing called “defense” where he’s getting quite a bit better.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
You're right
Not every year, just this year… I’ll be the first to admit Mark is a stud on D.
That's not what you said.
You said he gets worse “every year.” That’s a total load of crap, just like those numbers demonstrated. Don’t throw out random sweeping statements here that you’re not sure of and haven’t checked, because it will get looked up by the many nerds here.
And look at something like WAR. Surely you understand the value of a statistic that tries to quantify the overall value of a player both offensive and defensively, as Reynolds has improved dramatically in the later category over the last year. As I mentioned earlier, Reynolds is ninth in baseball in WAR for 3rd baseman, just ahead of Alex Rodriguez. Considering what we’re paying Reynolds, surely that’s an incredible value, right?
In short, who cares if Reynolds regressed slightly from an incredible career year last year, he’s still one of the best in baseball at his position and that’s not a player you want to rush to trade.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 21, 2010 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions
*tenth in baseball
Casey McGehee passed him since my first post at the top of this thread.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 21, 2010 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Not trying to stir the pot
But batting .214 is simply unacceptable.
Batting average
isn’t really a good indicator of hitting skill.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 36
Man...
People around here are sure smart mouths. I don’t care anything about pitchers wins, but disagree that BA is irrelevant. Is that ok?
Dont Really know...
what that meant, but I am not going to get in a trivial online argument. We will just agree to disagree. Also, I never said that Mark Reynolds is a poor hitter and shouldn’t be in the majors. I simply said that the .214 average has to come up. I am well aware of his strong numbers in the other areas.
Not mad...
Just didn’t understand what you meant that’s all. All I was saying is that I don’t think BA is completely meaningless. It is simply another performance indicator. Just like buying stock based on a single indicator would be foolish, so would judging Mark only by BA. That said, the BA cannot be viewed as a positive, even if he is very strong in other areas.
Justin, you have to be aware
that infrequent posters won’t know some of the jokes here, and remember that that’s perfectly acceptable…..
Things ’Skins has in common with foulpole for 400, please. -- soco
by snakecharmer on Aug 22, 2010 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions
LMD...
I only know of one meaning for LMD, and it seemed to be completely unacceptable. Sounds like there is an alternate meaning that is an “inside joke” to this board?
I have no idea what you mean about a meaning for LMD being unacceptable.
Lovemydbacks was a troll that would make random comments. His trademark would be to say mouth randomly in a sentence. When you said people around here are sure smart mouths, I laughed and posted my reply. I actually thought you had done it intentionally and was just going with it.
Nice strikeout!
Ohhhh...
My bad. Google LMD and you will see the meaning I confused it with. I am new to the board and wasn’t aware of that meaning. So I thought you were responding with something completely inappropriate and attacking the new guy.
Yes, he certainly is,
but he doesn’t mean to – misunderstandings happen sometime, and we most definitely welcome new Dbacks opinions around here! It may take a while to get used to some peoples’ sense of humor and for us to get to know yours in return.
Things ’Skins has in common with foulpole for 400, please. -- soco
by snakecharmer on Aug 22, 2010 3:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I do pretty much discard BA
Because On-base Percentage includes both BA and the ability to take walks. Mark’s OBP is .332, above the league average of .325.
Personally, I learned this from the year Johnny Estrada played for us. He hit .302, but almost never walked – his OBP that year was below Reynolds this season, at .328. That shows how you can bat .300 and still be less productive than a player batting .215.
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
by Jim McLennan on Aug 22, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Understandable...
However, there is, obviously, a direct correlation that if he brings up his batting average, he will bring up his OBP. There is no way he should be satisfied with a .214 BA. That’s all I am saying. Never said he is having an awful year, never said he was terrible, just said a .214 BA isn’t a favorable number.
I think it's the lack of line-drives
That’s dropped to 12% from 20% last year, and those have a much greater chance of becoming hits than ground balls or fly balls. If that returns to what we saw before, his BABIP and BA should then improve.
Now, why have those line-drives gone, and how can we get them back? That’s the real question here…
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
by Jim McLennan on Aug 22, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
It's just tough
for some fans to criticize their own players… Anyway back to Reynolds, according to Gambo, Josh Byrnes was extremely close to dealing him. It would be insane to not even listen to offers this winter.
Just get good value. : )
Perhaps Atlanta needs him… Hmmmm.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 22, 2010 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I kind of checked out of this argument
But hey, there are merits here. Nobody will argue that a walk is exactly as useful as a single. I can admit that.
I can get carried away, I’ll admit it. “Agree to Disagree” should have pretty much ended this, but this is a site of people all wanting to win arguments because, well, it’s what we do. : )
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 22, 2010 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Except in the event...
a single moves a baserunner from 1st to 3rd, and a walk only puts the runner on 2nd. Just kidding. Guilty as charged. :)
I was arguing for you there.
Haha a single > a walk. A single can score a runner from second. A walk keeps that runner there. : )
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 22, 2010 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Though,
This is what wOBA is for. Reynolds’ is .346 – still a good number.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 22, 2010 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Batting average is a good enough
indicator of what a hitter is doing with the bat, if anything.
The Great and Mighty....
by NASCARbernet on Aug 23, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
::siiiigh::
I should have a mfin theme song.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Aug 22, 2010 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I am wondering how Zavada's TJ surgery rehab is coming along too
"Be more concerned w/ character than reputation. Character is what you are, reputation is what people think you are." ~ John Wooden
Not a clue.
Hope it’s going well. That’s a guy who it’s impossible to not root for.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 22, 2010 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I know what you meanZac
Zavada is an amazing story. He’s come a LONG way. I wish him the best always
"Be more concerned w/ character than reputation. Character is what you are, reputation is what people think you are." ~ John Wooden
by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 22, 2010 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice recap but...
that pitching staff just isn’t good enough, in my opinion. I think that offense and defense will be fine.
That is this year’s staff plus only Mitre and Saito and minus Heilman. I think they need more – at least one more top-level pitcher and perhaps two. The Diamondbacks have the worst ERA in the NL, and bringing back 9 pitchers from that staff likely isn’t enough. And I don’t think we can’t plan on too much from Valdez and Collmenter in 2011 – those guys still have ERAs around 6.00 in AAA.
I don't think this is a contending team...
But it’s closer to a .500 team. Which we need for the sake of the fan base as we build up for the next huge wave of minor league talent.
As Jim recently commented, almost nobody goes from being as horrible as we are this year to the playoffs next year. It’s probably just not going to happen.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 21, 2010 4:49 AM EDT up reply actions
There is a pitching wildcard
an injury wildcard. Nobody is going to offer that guy any more than a minimum to sign, so maybe he’ll be more ‘available’ than he would otherwise be. The wildcard her is that if he can pitch again, he may be more effective than the posted mean.
I’m not saying ‘resign him at what he wants,’ I am saying let him earn his way back into the bigs.
The Great and Mighty....
by NASCARbernet on Aug 23, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Duscherer or Correia
for #2 or #3?
What about mismatched, high value parts? What about the upcoming 1B glut with Laextension? What trades are looking available in the fall? The SP and bullpen options don’t look good in Free Agency and the DBacks need a major overhaul.
No Gutierrez, Sherlock!
by Reynolds rapper on Aug 21, 2010 8:16 AM EDT reply actions
I'll take Mitre over both of them
Easily. Duchscherer gets hurt too much. We don’t need a high-risk injury-prone starter who would probably still cost us $6MM. Our backup options suck. We need a guy who can eat innings, or a pair of guys for similar cost so who can eat starting innings i.e. Mitre & perhaps a Chad Gaudin – trusting the 147-inning ’09 sample over the 47-inning ’10 sample – as a fallback such that one of the two can be counted on to start every fifth day and perhaps simultaneously give us some relief innings.
Kevin Correia sucks. He’s got a 14.5 HR/FB % this year. While that may be inflated and regress-able, consider that half of his starts are made at Petco (and his career 10% HR/FB is split between AT&T and Petco). If he makes them at Chase Field, it gets really ugly really quickly. Like it has for Rodrigo, sadly.
I think next year’s team will naturally be better at reaching base. Reynolds’ career trend prior to this year was posting .330 BABIPs, but it’s down 60 points this year. I’m trusting the three straight seasons (two and a half if you want to get picky) of .330 rather than the one season of .270. That by itself will make him an awesome OBP guy. I also expect Upton to become more capable of reaching base regularly, which is saying something because, well, he already is. I like this idea of Upton in the 2 hole. We’ll see if we stick with it.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 21, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
from what I know about Correia
which is 100% anecdotal, he’d probably retire if he ever had to leave SD as it took him his best least effort in SF to get there.
Forgot something
There is no upcoming 1B glut – the extension, I imagine, could be for as little as one extra year on top of next year’s option year, Allen moves to LF, and then there are no other 1B prospects of note above A-ball for us right now. Goldschmidt… well, he could hit .220 and flame out in Mobile next year and I truly think nobody would be surprised. Krauss could rise quickly, but he’s not polished defensively at 1B. Really, he’s a DH who occasionally plays a sketchy LF. Platoon him with Allen once Ryal starts to hit arbitration in two/three years. Davidson isn’t raking at Visalia right now, so I could imagine us taking him one year/one level at a time. Same with Borchering. The HS kids could take their time.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 21, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Davidson
Davidson’s only had 13 ABs for Visalia so far – can’t draw any conclusions yet. The 3 BBs in his first 4 games is encouraging. Remember he started the year at South Bend with 21Ks and only 1 BB.
i feel like of our prospects right now
davidson and krauss have the best chance at panning out. is krauss’s defense that bad in left? hopefully his bat will be able to make up for it.
davidson is so young, yet he’s already so good. like IHSB mentioned, his makeup has been talked about a lot, with ppl commenting that he’s really willing to work hard and learn, which added onto that raw talent could make him incredible.
if he can stick at 3B, we’ll have a monster to replace reynolds. if not, then he can still play 1B and hopefully borchering pans out as we hoped prior to this year
by blue bulldog on Aug 22, 2010 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Krauss is high-probability
But he’s literally a guy with a bat. He’s big, stocky, and a defensive butcher. Thankfully, the bat is easily playing right now.
Davidson has a notepad he takes notes in after every AB, from what I’ve heard (I think it was a quote from Mark Haley). Also, his favorite team growing up was the D-backs because his favorite player was Randy Johnson (as he himself told me). : )
Borchering apparently has a better chance to stick at third. And he still puts on a BP show, it’s just translating that power to the games. It’ll happen.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 22, 2010 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
The reason I mentioned those numbers for Davidson
Was that the only way he would possibly start anywhere but Visalia next year was if he went there and absolutely set the CL circuit on fire for a month. So he’s not really altering his minor-league career path right now.
That said, the low K’s and high BB’s are quite nice from Davidson, BABIP will sort itself out.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 22, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I was assuming
an extension would be +3 or +4 years. That really would qualify assuming some of those guys pan out. I wouldn’t object to +2 counting ’11.
No Gutierrez, Sherlock!
by Reynolds rapper on Aug 22, 2010 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions
No reason to extend a guy who is 30 for 4 more years...
If we do… well, that’ll be something to harp on when the time comes but I don’t think that’ll happen. 3 would be okay, 2 would be lovely.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 22, 2010 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
i can agree to that
if it was a two year extension (so we’d have him 2011 and 2012) that’s perfect. that’s probably too short for laroche though, so i feel like he’d only agree to a 3 year extension, at which point we might have a jam at the corner spots.
but that’s not that big of a deal….having a jam just means we’ll need to make trades
i really hope we at least give allen a shot though. that OBP is just way too good. for some reason he’s still getting most of his at bats at first
by blue bulldog on Aug 22, 2010 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't get it
Why are we even considering a LaRoche extension. Don’t get me wrong – I like LaRoche a LOT. But we already have him for next year – why pay a bunch of money for a first baseman when we have one coming up in Allen? It’s not like we’re only a year or two away from a championship.
by Craig from Az on Aug 23, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Because LaRoche is a proven commodity
and Allen isn’t.
The Great and Mighty....
by NASCARbernet on Aug 23, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
Because we have two holes in the lineup to fill, and if LaRoche can cover one while we move Allen to cover the other, we’re better off than otherwise.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
Exactly.
Allen has already played 29 games in LF this summer. Even if his defense is slightly below average, I think the Diamondbacks are better off with Allen as the primary LF next year instead of Parra, Gillespie, or Ryal. Parra can be a defensive sub, and one of the other two can be an occasional platoon partner.
Parra can be a defensive sub, and one of the other two can be an occasional platoon partner.
Other than his arm, I shudder to think that he would be the superior defensive player.
Nice strikeout!
are you kidding?
parra is pretty good defensively in left. his speed allows him to cover a wide range of area, which means fewer doubles and his arm is a ton better than your average left fielder’s
by blue bulldog on Aug 23, 2010 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I like an Allen/Ryal platoon
Rusty kills LHP, Allen kills RHP, everybody is happy.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 24, 2010 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Linton, Perry, and Green???
Why haven’t any of these guys reported? I thought they were going to play this year? I had thought Linton and Perry were going to the Osprey and Green to Yakima?
They have reported
Perry has been with Missoula for about four days, and I believe Linton reported over the weekend. They could make their first appearance on the upcoming road trip to Idaho Falls.
Remember that Linton had been at UNC for football practice on the signing day. It may have taken him a little longer to get his baseball timing back.
Out of curiosity
why on earth did Kenny Williams let us get BA for just some reliever? Not even a closer, just good ole Tony Peña.
My value over a replacement poster is approximately 10.5 runs.
because
the white sox are dumb.
as in, trade away six years of dan hudson at league minimum salary dumb (well, 3 years of min, 3 years of arb)
by blue bulldog on Aug 24, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Carlos
Quentin, broseph.
/beats dead horse
But, yeah, I’ve always thought Kenny Williams was awesome until I started looking at some of the moves he’s made. My GM-crush shifted over to Mike Rizzo.
My value over a replacement poster is approximately 10.5 runs.
mike rizzo is a beast...
he used to be the dbacks head of drafting or something like that….i wish we still had him
by blue bulldog on Aug 24, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
I knew he had some place in the org, and I’m too lazy to go and Google it. It’d be great if we had him as our GM. Though, we should all give DiPoto more time (assuming he’s more than interim) before we say he’s better or worse than anyone else.
My value over a replacement poster is approximately 10.5 runs.
Mike Rizzo?
The same Mike Rizzo that just TOTALLY screwed up the Adam Dunn situation?
That Mike Rizzo?
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 24, 2010 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
why do you think he totally screwed up the Dunn situation?
victor wang’s research would suggest that rizzo should have traded Dunn for Dan Hudson (summarized here at BtB http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/20/950254/which-is-better-compensation) because Hudson was ranked 66 by Baseball America, but since Hudson had a really rough few starts with the white sox, i can understand if his prospect stock dropped and rizzo was scared to pull the trigger on the trade
post hudson being traded to arizona, it makes little sense in my mind that dunn should be traded for edwin straight up (which seems to be what the white sox were expecting). i think 3 WAR is a reasonable estimate to what edwin could give the nationals next year, which would be a surplus value of around 4 million…dunn’s comp picks would probably generate more
by blue bulldog on Aug 25, 2010 5:29 AM EDT up reply actions
He messed up the Adam Dunn situation
When he didn’t utilize Dunn’s willingness to sign an extension at a hometown discount. Dunn went to the media almost begging for a new long-term deal to stay in Washington. But, instead, they started being wishy-washy, throwing his name out there on the trade market, and ignoring most of his extension pleas. So if you bypass the discounted extension, that means that you need to move him to get prospects.
If a couple of bad big-league starts from a 23-year-old scare you after such an incredible MiLB track record, perhaps decisions are being made a bit rashly, no?
Then they started leaking out that the key to getting Dunn was to get EJack from us, then include EJack in the package, if not simply straight-up, for Dunn. So the WSox did this, fully hoping to get Dunn, then the Nats basically backed out of that one too. At that point, there was no dealing Dunn. Everybody knew that the price was going to be painful and the Nats were being less-than-easy to work with, and now Dunn is stuck in Washington on an expiring contract with free agency compensation picks or re-signing for an at-market deal as the options.
That’s pretty grossly misplayed, sadly.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 25, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
i feel like the whole situation seems pretty sketchy
and there are a lot of questions that we just don’t have answers to
1) what exactly is Dunn’s willingness to sign a hometown discount constitute? players/agents are always going to say publicly they are willing to give a discount, but how much is this discount really? Dunn isn’t stupid. this next contract will basically be his last chance to make money, and there’s very little incentive for him to give a sizeable discount from his market value for security reasons (a la the discount we received from upton)
2) i do believe that not trading Dunn for hudson/other prospects was a mistake (particularly because you have to assume they could have gotten more than us in a trade). but i don’t think this is a TERRIBLE mistake. all i can say is, they must have saw something about hudson that they didn’t like in his few outings. remember, his incredible MiLB track record is basically one year. nobody would be surprised at all if hudson flames out in the majors. maybe their scouts simply just did not like the prospects that the white sox can offer, and thought they’d be able to get more value from having two extra top 50 picks in next year’s deep draft pool
3) the EJack trade makes no sense to me. i don’t understand how any GM would ever make a trade for a player that they wanted to flip, and didn’t get a guarantee that the flip would occur. a couple of possible scenarios. A) Nats and WSox had an agreement that trading Dunn for an EJack package would occur. After WSox traded for EJack, Nats realized they had short-term leverage and wanted to renegotiate the deal to get more out of the WSox. WSox balked because they thought this was ridiculous, and the deal died. If this happened, then yes, you would be correct that they grossly misplayed. Any short-term advantage the Nats could get from a renegotiation would have extreme long-term costs (bad rep with other GM’s). B) Nats never really had extensive talks with WSox about this. Maybe it was just something that had been rumored about by people who were not primary decision-makers. WSox believed that getting EJack helps them contend this year and next year (their short-term playoff window) much better than Dan Hudson (they must have disliked him for some reason as well) so getting EJack means possibly they can flip him for Dunn, or even if that doesn’t go down, then having EJack for two years is still a decent recovery.
Anyway, my main point is that not extending Dunn is probably because he was too expensive, not trading for Hudson was probably a mistake, but a reasonable one in my opinion, and not trading for EJack was almost definitely the right move.
by blue bulldog on Aug 25, 2010 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Because Allen at the time
Was only in Double-A and fairly close to Rule 5 eligibility/minor league free agency. But he came to AZ, raked, and was put on the 40-man/protected.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 24, 2010 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I was wondering the same thing
"Be more concerned w/ character than reputation. Character is what you are, reputation is what people think you are." ~ John Wooden
by Rockkstarr12 on Aug 27, 2010 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions

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