LaRoche Extension?
MLBTradeRumors claims that the Dbacks are in very very preliminary talks for a LaRoche extension.
I don't quite understand this move, and I'm not sure how I feel about this. For one thing, I thought we were supposed to be cutting costs next year. LaRoche's market value is probably somewhere between 8-10 million per year. Best case scenario for the Dbacks in my mind, is probably something along the lines of the 3 year 20 million range. That means we'd be chalking up 6-8 million next year. I'm not even convinced LaRoche will necessarily take that, but maybe he's willing to take less than market value since he does play better at Chase than away from Chase (though his splits aren't as insane as KJ's). If he does take something like that, we're getting a reasonably good deal as LaRoche is a pretty consistent 2+ WAR guy each year. And, I think LaRoche's defense is underrated. His overall ability to get to balls in his zone is probably depicted fairly well by UZR, but LaRoche's abilities to dig balls out of the dirt is pretty much second to none, and may be a big reason why a lot of our other infielders have shown significant defensive improvements. Which means his overall value might be even better than what Fangraphs suggests.
The thing is, what are we going to do with Brandon Allen? The kid is a legitimate prospect. His triple slash for the year in Reno is 265/406/549 for an OPS of 955. That's good for fifth among qualifiers in the PCL. And no, that is not a typo. His OBP is 140 points higher than his BA. It's true we should fear power slugging numbers in the PCL, and I'm sure Allen has benefitted a lot from that given his 23 home runs in 328 at bats. However, the PCL can't exaggerate OBP which bodes well for future success. This doesn't mean that Allen will be able to break 2 WAR next year if he starts at 1B, but all evidence suggests he'd be a more than adequate replacement for LaRoche. I could easily see Allen, at worst, posting a line something like 230/320/450.
Which brings me back to the point of, why bother doing this? True, LaRoche will almost definitely be better than Allen at 1B next year. But we can get Allen for 500k while we have to pay LaRoche somewhere between 6-8 million. Why bother doing this if we aren't even going to try to contend next year? And if we are trying to contend, doesn't it make a lot more sense to have Dan Haren and Allen for a combined 13 million than LaRoche and Joe Saunders for a combined 13 million?
This move only makes sense if we think we can get LaRoche on the cheaper side (closer to 6 million next year than 8 million) AND if we think Allen can play effective defense in left. Allen, offensively, is almost guaranteed to be an upgrade over any other in house option we have at left field for next year (Parra has just not been effective enough, Ryal has had an insanely lucky year, and Church is basically useless), but I have no clue as to how good Allen is defensively in left. He's supposed to be athletic, so...maybe it'll all work out? Because the alternative is to sign LaRoche and keep Allen in AAA, which would be a terrible terrible decision in my mind. Waste of money in a year we are probably throwing away anyway, and we'll be suffocating the growth of a player who deserves an opportunity to play in the majors.
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i would also like to point out
that a lineup of laroche, kj, drew, reynolds, miggy, upton, cy, allen would be a ridiculously strikeout prone lineup.
while i don’t really think it is THAT costly to have a lot of strikeouts (it’s all situational) i think it is impossible to deny that a lineup with a few contact hitters sprinkled in is probably better than a lineup with all power hitters who go all-or-nothing. granted, upton and miggy are supposed to be our relatively low, 300 average hitters, and upton has underperformed in that regard. but even then, we’d still expect upton and miggy to bat in the middle of the order, with this lineup we still have the perennial problem of missing a good contact, OBP guy at the top of the lineup to set up the rest of our players.
Pick up a Renteria-type SS
to buy time for Owings and you can get more contact out of SS. I tend to think if they configure it like they do, Drew is the odd man out. If not, they need an Olerud type at 1B.
No Gutierrez, Sherlock!
by Reynolds rapper on Aug 20, 2010 6:35 AM EDT up reply actions
the problem with this
is renteria sucks
and drew is actually good
renteria is having a career walk rate which is why his OBP is actually decent. even then, drew matches him there. drew has more power. and drew has better defense…
by blue bulldog on Aug 20, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I said "Renteria-type"
as shorthand for .280-.300 which Drew isn’t capable of. Our lineup needs singles every now and again.
No Gutierrez, Sherlock!
by Reynolds rapper on Aug 21, 2010 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions
renteria hasn't bat over 280
in three years…
but yes, i would like a guy who bats over 280 and also gets on base at a nice clip and plays solid defense (not sure if i would call that renteria type…but maybe that’s just me)
for one, drew is supposed to be an over 280 hitter but for some reason, that just hasn’t manifested itself. even so, a triple slash of 263/343/414 is very solid for shortstop, and drew has played fantastic defense this year
the bigger problem is….where on earth are you going to find a shortstop that bats 280? this year in the majors only four SS have over 280 averages. alexei ramirez, ryan theriot, jose reyes, and hanley ramirez. the only one i can think of us even remotely having a chance to get is ryan theriot.
except ryan theriot sucks. despite his batting average being 20 points higher than drew’s, his OBP is still 20 points lower than drew’s. you really have to suck at taking walks to let that happen. moreover, his slugging percentage is identical to his obp. that means you just really have to suck period.
by blue bulldog on Aug 21, 2010 3:37 AM EDT up reply actions
The problem is
there is no natural place to put him in THIS lineup. 1st? Not a classic speed guy. 2nd? Not enough B.A. 3rd? Not with a .757 OPS. 6th? Maybe if you bat Reynolds 7th. Otherwise you get this guy who is one of the best 5 shortstops offensively batting 7 or 8, behind the big run producers. This DOES NOTHING to fix the main problems in the lineup which are a) getting guys on ahead of the power guys or b) getting hits when the lineup rolls over. Weirdly enough in this lineup a single is going to be more valuable than a walk if you are going to be playing “massive whiff ball”.
I’m not saying he doesn’t have value. He just has more value to other teams than us. The DBacks get enough power elsewhere in the lineup to worry about losing his power.
If you want to start tinkering with other parts of the lineup (Reynolds, Upton, Young, etc.) you can probably keep Drew but I’d hate to see a cash strapped franchise give up players for whom one would have to spend A LOT more on the open market to accommodate a guy with the 7th highest OPS in the lineup.
As I previously said, I’d rather tread water for a year or two at the position with an aging SS that gets decent contact and then call up Owings.
No Gutierrez, Sherlock!
by Reynolds rapper on Aug 21, 2010 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions
drew is a classic two-hole hitter
i’m not sure why you need BA to bat 2nd
the ideal two-hole hitter is the guy who moves the player on first over to the next base and/or gets on base himself to set up the middle of the lineup. drew strikes out below league average and he isn’t prone to grounding into double plays, both of which helps moves people on base, he’s left handed which means he can take better advantage of pulling the ball through the hole between first and second, and his OBP is a solid 340 which means he’s getting on base at a nice clip and setting up the middle of the order behind him
by blue bulldog on Aug 21, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
besides....
like i said, there ARE no good shortstops that have high batting averages that are available for us to get
by blue bulldog on Aug 21, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Dude
Omar Vizquel. LOOK AT ALL OF THOSE HITS!!!
/sarcasm
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 21, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
It's going to be a lot more than "a year or two"
With Owings. He’s 19. And has spent a large portion of this season sidelined by plantar fasciitis (that’s right, the classic WNBA injury that Tim Duncan also had, yes). He’s going to finish this year w/ South Bend, probably spend all of 2011 with Visalia, all of 2012 with Mobile, and all of 2013 with Reno before being ready, and that’s an aggressive plan that assumes no hiccups. He has the chance to be an impact bat at shortstop, which makes him a hell of a prospect, definitely a top-5 if not a top-3 guy for us.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 21, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
i hope he learns to walk more
but you’re right…he’s young…i have a lot of hope for him too
by blue bulldog on Aug 21, 2010 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you are right
you need some good contact hitters to force the pitchers into tough pitch counts..I guess Allen is walking alot so he may still be able to see a lot of pitches
by Rickfansince76 on Aug 20, 2010 7:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Not AAA for Allen
I’m pretty sure that Allen will be in the majors with the Diamondbacks next year, either in LF or 1B, barring a disastrous spring. I think his defense in LF will be adequate. If LaRoche is gone, the team will have two holes to fill, and could use Allen at either one. But then they will need someone else for the other 1B/LF slot. If LaRoche agrees to come back at a good price, why not?
You are correct that the team could be even more strikeout-prone next year. Still, I think Allen and LaRoche are the two best options in the organization.
I think with Gibson, if he stays there wil be moves
I think Kirk stays..and I think he tries and get a team that he wants and some guys get moved
???
I don’t get it. I’m as big a LaRoche fan as there is but this smacks to me of management trying to build a 500 club instead of aiming at a window of opportunity. Sigh. Please don’t be true.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
nooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
The name of the team is ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS - "I tried to convince them that what they were doing was an aberration, an imbecility, a stupidity without name"
More info on this
From Jack Magruder
"I am very happy here right now, not only because I like playing here and I like these guys but because I like the potential here. Regardless of what our record is, I don’t think we are that many pieces away from having a completely different situation this year. I mean completely different. I have been on teams that are lost and moving backwards. I don’t see that happening here. I think they had a chance to do that at the trade deadline, but didn’t. We chose to keep our lineup intact. I think we’re not far away."
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
Aaaaannd
It looks like that’s where Trade Rumors got their info from. Still, let’s give Jack the credit he deserves!
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
by Jim McLennan on Aug 20, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
That’s why I tend not to link to MLBTR, unless they’re just going off Twitter. There’s usually a reporter somewhere who deserves the direct link. =)
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
No problem
MLBTR is a fantastic resource for this sort of thing, I’m certain a lot of us check them out from time to time.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
not sure I'd object to this
give him a shot to make Type A by the end of next year and then wave goodbye to LaRoche and hello to two draft picks.
Let him play first next year and give Allen a shot at LF. Then when LaRoche is gone let one of the other 1B a year or so away have a go in 2012
yep....
This obviously moves Allen to LF
Because Parra has been nothing short of a turd in 2010. Sorry kid, you may be young but struggling to OBP .300 isn’t gonna cut it without a ton of power.
So what would you rather have: Adam LaRoche giving us a discounted 2-2.5 WAR at 1B or having to go dumpster-diving for a left fielder who will be replacement level/worse, or shelling out a hunk of change over a long time to get someone who would provide the same win value of LaRoche? I’ll take the known commodity. And it’s not like LaRoche is going to age poorly. His bat is already slow, can’t really get slower, can it?
…. can it???
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 20, 2010 6:32 PM EDT reply actions
dude
you’re back…i haven’t seen you post in so long
in theory, i think you’re right. and i agree, if we can get laroche to give us a discounted 2-2.5 WAR and Allen can play around average defense at left field (i’d probably even take slightly below average defense if his bat turns out to be as valuable as i hope)
i still don’t think this let’s us contend though. we still don’t have the pitching for that, either in the bullpen or starting. i guess if we make a blockbuster trade in the winter time to get an ace. greinke appears unhappy and wants to be moved….but otherwise, i just don’t see how we have that much hope for next year
by blue bulldog on Aug 20, 2010 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Can still get a starter
The team needs to have a solid 1B or LF to go with Allen, and that will cost some money. It may as well be LaRoche if the price is reasonable. There is no other internal option ready to step in there. But there should still be enough money left over to sign a solid SP.
We have dollars we're willing to reallocate
After moving the contracts (and malcontents) of Snyder, Qualls, and Haren. EJ was also a contract move, but I didn’t want to put him in the malcontents sentence because he was the coolest guy ever and awesome in that clubhouse.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 20, 2010 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Haren
was a malcontent?
really? i hope that’s not true…..i really like haren…i think he’s one of the most underrated/undervalued 1/2 borderline pitchers in the majors
besides, at least in the news quotes, he always said he wanted to be around for fixing the problem, and wasn’t outspoken about wanting to be moved
by blue bulldog on Aug 20, 2010 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Malcontent is obviously speculative
I never spoke to him. But… it kinda hits a nerve to see a guy that happy and excited to be traded in his final press conference after the deal. Wasn’t a good note to leave the team on, to be sure. Made it really seem like he didn’t want to be there anymore.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 20, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
(I did speak to Snyder once though - he said about a dozen words total)
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 20, 2010 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably saving them up
For when he’s drunk on the team plane with Qualls…
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
by Jim McLennan on Aug 20, 2010 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
that's probably true
but i think it’s understandable…he is going back home basically, and i can sort of empathize with him being excited about both going back home and going to a team that should perennially contend
besides, if haren’s going to leave us i’d rather him go to the AL, and if he’s going to join a big market team, i’d rather it be the angels than yankees
by blue bulldog on Aug 20, 2010 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Howdy howdy
Just finished my internship with the D-backs. As a matter of fact, I just finished it about five hours ago. I’m already here as a combination of boredom and appreciation of the baseball knowledge floated around this site.
There are a lot of scouting worries with Allen. The dude has holes in his swing, and mostly feasts on fastballs that he sees in Triple-A. Now, you can survive as a fastball hitter in the majors, just ask Chris Young, but you also have to figure out how to lay off the other stuff. We’ll see if he can. If not, he’s a mistake fastball hitter. He’s… Drew Stubbs. ::sigh::
We could be contenders in 2012. And that’s what this is about. LaRoche is already locked up for next year, and if we can’t get value for him, we’re going to exercise the option, and so is he since he likes it here and is just sick of being traded everywhere. A lot depends on Jarrod Parker stepping in at some point in the middle of next year and being what we think he can be. That gives us an ace. follow that with IPK, Hudson, Enright, and maybe a Wade Miley and that’s a good rotation. The ’pen can be filled with guys like Collmenter, Roemer, Septimo (if he ever gets himself together), Valdez, Augenstein, Layne, Cook, et al.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 20, 2010 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Five hours?
Dude, what took you so long? =)
Welcome back!
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
Welcome back!
Nice timing, you’re scheduled for a recap a week Sunday if you want!
And per your .sig, I’m looking forward to seeing Human Centipede at some point.
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
by Jim McLennan on Aug 20, 2010 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
This Sunday's won't work
And then after that I’ll be traveling places around Europe, so I’ll have to wait a couple of weeks until I can regularly do the Sunday’s (though I will… for whatever remnants of the season there are…). But… tomorrow? If nobody has claimed, I’d be up for it.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 20, 2010 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
And I'm sure 'Skins
will love his sig, due to his enjoyment of all things Daniel Tosh.
/sarcasm
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 36
that's so cool!
i didn’t know you were interning with the dbacks!
i’m not against picking up laroche’s option, though 7.5 million isn’t too much of a discount from his market value. the thing is, would laroche pick it up? that’s a mutual option right? i feel like he could probably get a 3 year deal averaging 7 million…wouldn’t he rather test the market? i dunno
the other thing is i think we have to be hoping for too much to try to contend in 2012, without spending or making some big moves. parker joining the rotation in the middle of the year means we have to wait half a year until he’s ready. and that assumes he can turn into an ace. no guarantee he can be like hanson or even hellickson. hudson is good, and i think he can be a solid two if he can find some consistency with that slider. enright, ipk, saunders will fill out the back end alright, but this seems to me like an average rotation. miley is having a career year in the minors, can he maintain that? and he just entered double AA, can he reach the majors faster than parker? there are just too many questionables that need to go right for us to win next year i feel.
then there’s the bullpen. i’m just not convinced that we can fill this in house. while it does make sense to use starters who have decent stuff but can’t get through the order a third time, do we really have those kind of guys? i feel like we haven’t really used failed starters for bullpen roles, except valdez for a bit this year (and that didn’t go so well either…though admittedly small sample size)
by blue bulldog on Aug 20, 2010 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
The contract was designed
To essentially be a deferred $6MM w/ $6MM option. There’s a $1.5MM buyout that must be paid regardless of who opts out of the contract if it is opted out of. So while it is $7.5MM overall, the only additional money we pay by exercising it is $6MM.
I think LaRoche is just sick of moving. Sick of being traded everywhere, sick of being a rental player. He likes this clubhouse – there’s a lot of guys who fit his “redneck”/laid-back & easygoing personality (Drew, KJ, sort of Reynolds).
I don’t think we believe we can contend in 2011. And while people here may have a tendency to think “if we’re not going to make the playoffs, then just tank and get better draft picks,” the reality is that fans would much rather see a .500 team than a .400 team, and that’s how this team makes its money – the fans.
I think we can flesh out a solid, league-average ‘pen. I’m all aboard the Esmerling Vasquez For Closer train. The kid’s electric and just needs a touch more consistency. Rosales is coming back. Rodriguez can be replacement level. Collmenter has a future as a fastball/change-up reliever, possibly with back-end potential based off of the deception and change. Valdez profiles well as a reliever, but needs to get comfortable in the role. Augenstein profiles as a decent middle reliever. Gutierrez is still there, Boyer has been awesome since returning from Triple-A, and Norberto…. well, I’m also all aboard the Joe Beimel For LOOGY train… We also should get Zavada back.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 20, 2010 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions
i think
demel and vasquez can be useful pieces
i feel like i can’t give up on gutierrez, and if collmenter can be a pen arm that’d make me pretty happy too
still, i think we are still going to need to buy a pen arm
by blue bulldog on Aug 20, 2010 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd be okay
With us getting Takashi Saito. I’m willing to deal with the one or two 15-day DL stints and the possibility for an age blowout. It’ll keep the whining down, in all likelihood.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 20, 2010 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Set-up man
Good catch.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 20, 2010 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I have serious doubts about Vasquez's closing ability.
It’s rather difficult to be a good closer with that walk rate unless you have Carlos Marmol-esque strikeout numbers, which Vasquez doesn’t.
Although he’s probably the best option we currently have.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 36
+1
i wish there was an easy way to find out how walk rates correlate with success at chase specifically…
but i’m of the opinion that nobody in our bullpen posts good enough walk rates (except demel) to close…
i do agree that vasquez’s stuff looks really good though. but unless his command gets better……eh……
by blue bulldog on Aug 21, 2010 3:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Let's not go there haha
I wish I could divulge all of our secret plans courtesy of my Jerry Dipoto speed-dial, but that’s just a possibility/reality. : P
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 20, 2010 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
BA to LF.
LaRoche stays at 1B. That’d be my ideal.
However, it looks like LaRoche’s agent will probably wait until after his typical 2nd half surge to finalize any deal.
Bit of info here: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/08/adam-laroche-not-drawing-much-interest.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Mr. Science Boy
Any contract negotiations
Would naturally carry into the off-season. not necessarily as a way to wait for the hot streak, as both sides know what they’re negotiating for.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 20, 2010 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
One cure for streakiness
is for the players around a certain player to perform at their expected levels. This creates opportunities for better pitches and situations.
The Great and Mighty....
by NASCARbernet on Aug 21, 2010 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
LaRoche is just an anomaly
He’s going to heat up in the second half every season… it’s weird.
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=343580&title=spoiler-alert-human-centipede - Warning: NSFW... sorta
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 22, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions

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