Tony Capo on the Diamondbacks Trade Recap
by Tony Capo on Jul 31, 2010 10:55 PM EDT
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Print1. ARI trades Billy Buckner to DET for Dontrelle Willis. X
I was originally excited about the trade because I watched him when he was with the Marlins and became a fan of him. Its a shame that things didn't go well for the pitcher and he is now working his way up in the Giants farm system. The good news is that Arizona didn't give up much.
2. ARI trades Dan Haren to LAA for Joe Saunders and prospects.+/-
Its never a good thing when the ace of your team gets traded, but on the plus side they got a few pitching prospects and Joe Saunders who had 17 wins in 08 and 16 wins in 09. Hes cheaper and still has some upside but he needs to show something this year for there to be any confidence.
3. ARI trades Edwin Jackson to CWS for Dan Hudson and one pitching prospect.+
Besides the no hitter against the Rays, Jackson has been a bust for the Diamondbacks with stats similar to his 07 season with the Rays. Hudson has had a taste of the majors with the division leading White Sox and could be a good arm for the D'backs as they reload for 2011.
4. ARI trades Chris Snyder & Pedro Ciriaco to PIT for Ryan Church, Bobby Crosby and D.J Carrasco. +
I say that this is a good trade mostly because I like Miguel Montero over Chris Snyder.
Montero: Best Season 2009: 16HR 59RBI .294AVG 2010: 37 games 4HR 22RBI .311AVG
Snyder: Best Season 2008: 16HR 64RBI .237AVG 2010: 65 games 10HR 32RBI .231AVG
Montero has made Snyder expendable by proving to be the better catcher (and the one without the big contract).
What they got back from the Pirates is one solid bullpen arm in Arizona native D.J. Carrasco (2-2 3.88ERA 55.2/45 IP/K) an infielder in Bobby Crosby who as a full season starter musters up to 60RBI but is better off as a utility player. Crosby has played all four infield positions and even though his main position has been SS, he has been flawless playing the other positions. They also received OF Ryan Church who can challenge Gerardo Parra for the LF spot. Church is a solid .275 contact hitter where as Parra has hit only 2HR 18RBI .250AVG.
5. ARI traded Chad Qualls to TB for Whatshis Face. +/-
Plain and simple. The Rays were willing enough to take Qualls off the Diamondbacks hands. Its a good move for Tampa because believe it or not, Chad Qualls is a good pitcher in any inning other than the 9th. And although he has struggled in Arizona this year he might be effective in Tampa Bay.
All in all I like all the players that Arizona has received in this whole wheeling and dealing saga.
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Ok
At some point, this is going to have to be addressed. Why on earth do you value wins more than things like ERA? It really doesn’t matter all that much how many wins Saunders had the last two years.
Also, a heads-up, Chad is, in fact, not a bird, but Qualls.
I don't mean to sound harsh
and I’m glad to have more member on the site, but seriously, if you’re going to post, at least be informed about basic things and at least listen to what other people say. RBI’s and Wins are purely circumstantial (barring home runs) and are certainly not talking points as to why a player should be acquired.
It's true, yet managers
will still leave a pitcher in “to try to get the win”.
This article argues that wins (and saves) should be abolished. I tend to agree.
"The stars don't shine down upon us. We're in the way of their light."
by Arizona via Slough on Aug 1, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Im not the only one who value wins more than ERA
To starting pitchers everywhere getting the win is the most important thing in the game. ERA is the second most important stat and strikeouts is the third.
And about Qualls I made a mistake and am going to correct it asap
Just because other people do it
Doesn’t mean it’s right.
You’re basically saying you’d prefer a pitcher to give up 5 runs in 5 innings with a win over a pitcher who gives up 1 run in 8 innings in a 1-0 loss.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
Well if your gotta be black & white
If I am a manager and my pitcher gives up 5 runs and my team still gets the win than I’ll take it. But of douse I prefer a pitcher who only gives up a run and at the same time a lineup who scores 2 runs.
Well, there is a "Preview" button
that’s pretty helpful at preventing stuff like that.
Mr. Science Boy
That wasn't an option
By choosing wins over ERA, you’re saying that a large part of how you evaluate pitchers is by the performance of the team on offense.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
Yes it was
“You’re basically saying you’d prefer a pitcher to give up 5 runs in 5 innings with a win over a pitcher who gives up 1 run in 8 innings in a 1-0 loss.”
You saying that I evaluate pitchers is by the performance of the team on offense is completely wrong. But yes if a pitcher on my team has a good record but a mediocre ERA I still think hes a good pitcher. But tell me this. If you can put together a rotation with 5 pitchers with a good ERA and a record of .500 or less, how far will you go? Show me that rotation before you reply to me again about the way I look at pitchers.
What part of wins are a team concept not a pitching stat do you not get?
This isn’t hockey. This isn’t coaching wins.
Nice strikeout!
Fine
Take this rotation:
Felix Hernandez
Roy Oswalt
Brad Penny
Hiroki Kuroda
Ted Lilly
Together, they’ve got a collective 27-42, each one of them sitting below .500 on the season. But it’d be a rotation that would put up a 3.36 ERA. GMs would kill to have that kind of production from their staff. That would have made them the best starting rotation in all of baseball last season. But they’ve got a losing record, so you’re saying they aren’t that good.
Forget the other four guys- just look at Roy Oswalt. He’s got a record of 6-13. Keep in mind that this means he has a worse winning percentage than the Diamondbacks. Why is he there? Because in 10 of his 21 starts this season, his offense has scored one or zero runs. But I guess he sucks because he hasn’t gotten his team to score more runs for him.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
2004 Ben Sheets
2.70 ERA .226 BA 162 era+, 12-14 record
1988 STL Joe Magrane
2.18 ERA .217 BA 161 era+, 5-9 record
2003 Curt Schilling
2.95 ERA .230 BA 159 era+, 8-9 record
1995 Butch Henry
2.84 ERA 153 era+, 7-9 record
1998 Omar Daal
2.88 ERA .245 BA 146era+, 8-12 record
Not bad. They combine for a measly 40-53 record. You have one expansion season, and 3 players that played on losing teams. Most of th leaders of the ’88 Cardinals and the ’95 Expos each had runs and rbi leaders in the 60-70 range.
Nice strikeout!
That is a .430 win percentage.
A full 162 game season would be a 70-92 record (approximately)
Nice strikeout!
Each and everyone of these pitchers have pitched for teams with records below .500:
E Volquez*
CIN 2008 17 6 3.21 ERA
A Harang*
CIN 2007 16 6 3.73 ERA
B Webb*
ARI 2006 16 8 3.10 ERA
P Byrd*
KC 2002 17 11 3.90
J Jennings*
COL 2002 16 8 4.52
82- 39 in 121 games .677 pct 3.69 ERA
Full Season: 102-60 .629 pct 3.69 ERA
Playoff team? Damn near world series team!
Exactly my point.
A GOOD PITCHER on a LOSING TEAM does not get WINS because THE TEAM sucks.
Nice strikeout!
If my 5
were in a rotation with a good offense. That would be a playoff caliber team. And OF COURSE because of the offense, they would get more wins.
Nice strikeout!
Just so we're absolutely clear on this
Because you ignored my post- you’re saying that Roy Oswalt and Felix Hernandez haven’t pitched well this season, and you’d rather have Chris Narveson, a pitcher who has a 5.90 ERA and a 8-7 record, than either Oswalt or Hernandez. You’re saying Oswalt isn’t any good because his team has only scored a total of 5 runs in his past seven starts, and you’d rather have someone like Chris Narveson- is this an accurate summary of your stance?
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
Tony—
A SP can control one area of the game: diminishing the other team’s success at the plate. The pitcher has little to no influence over fielding, base running, hitting,strategy, and other pitchers who may pitch in the game. In effect, a starting pitcher has influence, then of approximately one of 6 areas of the game. Granted, it’s a larger piece of the pie than the other areas (except, perhaps, hitting), but I would suggest it represents no greater than a third of that pie.
Given that, while a starting pitcher has a disproportionate influence on the game, the balance of the game is largely still out of his control. On the other hand, the success of the other team’s batters is much more in his control, and when you isolate other areas such as the proficiency of a defense behind a pitcher and the ballpark effects, then one can begin to capture how effective a pitcher is. This is where stats such as xFIP and ERA+ come into play. And that is why these are much better measures of a pitcher’s effectiveness than wins.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
One other comment about wins. Last year, the league leader in wins collected a mere 19 (amazing 20 wasn’t broken). Among the top ranks, you will find many names you would expect. But the real way to see how wins skews a pitchers’ worth is to begin looking just a little deeper. Look, for instance, at this group of pitchers with 17, 16, 15, and 14 wins:
Scott Feldman (17): 4.08 ERA
Joe Saunders (16): 4.68 ERA
De La Rosa (16): 4.38 ERA
Jason Marquis (15): 4.04 ERA
Scott Baker (15): 4.34 ERA
Braden Looper (14): 5.22 ERA
Carl Pavano (14): 5.10 ERA
These are pitchers who happened to luck out. Look at the teams they were on: the Rangers, the Angels, the Rockies, the Twins, the Reds, the Yankees. What’s the underlying trait of those teams? They can score runs.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Look
Its not one or the other. I value ERA like everyone else but I also value Wins as an important stat.
And to whoever is putting words in my mouth, Kishi, Roy Oswalt & Felix Hernandez are still good because the ERA this year is solid despite their sub par record. To me, Chris Narveson has a bad ERA but is still holding his own with an 8-7 record but I’m not picking him over the two aces.
My 5 pitchers all received at least 16 wins on bad teams so Justin you don’t have a point.
And John, your right about pitchers having little to no influence over fielding, base running, hitting,strategy, and other pitchers who may pitch in the game. That is because baseball is a team sport and not played by individuals like the NBA.
I appreciate the debate. I hope you tune into my sports radio show on 1570 KAMP this fall.
Yes, I do.
They only received 16 or fewer because THEY PLAYED ON TEAMS THAT COULDN’T SCORE RUNS!!!!!
Nice strikeout!
notice the pitchers you listed above
had to be pulled from several years. Whereas we can give examples of many pitchers every year with good stats and bad records or vice versa.
You have to pick and choose individual pitchers with good records on bad teams over several years to find 5 pitchers that fit your “winners” profile. This would suggest the pitchers you listed and their winning records on bad teams are anomalies. Not pitchers that “know how to win”.
Blogging about my summer at a Chinese law firm.
NEW BLOG, as my original one is blocked by the Great Firewall.
http://ajinshanghai.wordpress.com/
"Chad Quails is a good pitcher in any inning other than the 9th"
His 7.24 ERA in appearances outside the ninth inning this season disagrees with you.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
If anything
He’ll be pitching in games with either huge leads or in huge holes to keep their best pitchers rested.
I really doubt
We’ll see much of either Crosby or Church. The move was essentially a salary dump, moving the dead weight.. Crosby and Church are both over 30 years old and neither of them have any value to their name other than the fact that they are going to be free agents at the end of the season.
Wear your own fur.
My favorite part about the 2010 D-Backs tradefest...
Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth
for…
4 months of Edwin Jackson + Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, and David Holmberg.
Wear your own fur.
Dang! I wanted to point that out.
Probably the greatest example of how the front office has absolutely no clue.
yeah I think this is a good thing
we got 17 years of starting pitching and half a year of Jackson for 4 years Max Scherzer and a reliever who can’t find the strike zone. That good sir, is a win.
Blogging about my summer at a Chinese law firm.
NEW BLOG, as my original one is blocked by the Great Firewall.
http://ajinshanghai.wordpress.com/
Why no clue?
Two guys who have high injury risks and pitch counts for 3 very young, so far successful guys and 4 months of Edwin Jackson.
I’d call that a win.
I should have a mfin theme song.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Aug 1, 2010 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
The Jackson clearly was the best move
The rest of the moves weren’t that great, and I still think the Haren move was a bad one, but I appreciate seeing the organization move decisively and in at least one case (Jackson) get a very good return. I’m modestly pleased with how everything turned out.
Jayson Stark thinks we did well.
Ken Rosenthal believes we’re losers in the deals. Rosenthal’s take is particularly odd since he counts the Angels as losers, too. After commenting that in our trades we didn’t receive enough high ceiling prospects in return, he says this in reference to the Angels: “They brought in right-hander Dan Haren, who is an upgrade from lefty Joe Saunders, but not enough of an upgrade to offset the quality of the prospects that the Angels included with Saunders to get Haren from Arizona. Among the three minor-league pitchers are lefty Pat Corbin, the Angels’ second-round pick in 2009, and right-hander Tyler Skaggs, whose value is better shown by the $1 million signing bonus he received in 2009 than the fact he slipped to the 40th round because of signability questions.”
Very odd, if you ask me. How about a little consistency there, Ken?
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Mr. Rosenthal's
comments are quite the head scratcher. From what you quoted here all I can think of is, wha?
Blogging about my summer at a Chinese law firm.
NEW BLOG, as my original one is blocked by the Great Firewall.
http://ajinshanghai.wordpress.com/
wouldn't be surprised to see LaRoche headed to CHW
in August. They’re desperate for a bat and I think with the way LaRoche has been playing no one will make the claim just to block a trade.
Blogging about my summer at a Chinese law firm.
NEW BLOG, as my original one is blocked by the Great Firewall.
http://ajinshanghai.wordpress.com/
Yes, we always seem to be able to make things work with the White Sox. Frankly, I’m a little surprised LaRoche wasn’t moved. I’d be stunned if he did anything other than put up his usual strong final few months.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Penny smart, dollar dumb
I think the FO got it 50% right.
I support the organization’s decision to clean house. It hurts, but this team needed the shakedown. In particular, thrilled with Jackson’s departing.
However, it seems very short sighted to be so intent on cutting salary to the the extream that you get such mediocre prospects back. What does a starting position player or pitcher that is under control for six years save you long term? A lot more, I think, than the value of refusing to pay any part (with only the Snyder exception, I think) of our trade chip’s salaries.
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