Tony Capo on the Dan Haren Trade
by Tony Capo on Jul 27, 2010 10:20 AM EDT
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8/25/10: The Arizona Diamondbacks traded Dan Haren to the LA Angels for Joe Saunders + 3 MILB pitchers.
If you saw this trade you think that Arizona was a seller and tanked the season. Haren is the more popular pitcher and carries the heavier contract. However if you look closer at the trade, Arizona got the better end of the deal.
If you look at pitchers like I do and give W/L more weight, than you would like Saunders. In Arizona (08-10) Dan Haren, went 37-26, during that time span Joe Saunders went 39-24. Take this year out of the equation, and its Dan Haren 30-18 Joe Saunders 33-14. Haren has the advantage on IP and K.
2010 has been a down year for the two pitchers but the trade can benefit them. AL pitchers usually thrive in the NL so Saunders can finish strong this year and can be the winner that Arizona is looking for. Haren has been good in both leagues and being in the pennant race will likely invigorate Haren and LA, who are currently 7 games behind Texas and is fighting Oakland for 2nd place.
Finance wise, this trade helps Arizona the most because they need the money they'll save from moving Haren's contract to fill some gaps in the pitching staff and spruce up the lineup. The Angles filled their Lackey gap with Haren and with Scott Kazmir in the DL, the Angels can make a run with their new ace combo.
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You lost me at
“If you look at pitchers like I do and give W/L more weight.”
Arizona fans got horribly burned by that metric before, with the Huge Manatee, who had 41 wins – more than Saunders OR Haren over the three seasons before coming to Arizona.
Let’s just say, it didn’t work out well. For us, anyway.
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
I think
we’d be making a mistake to look at this as a Haren for Saunders trade. We should be focusing on the prospects, since the Diamondbacks are trying to rebuild.
No crying in the Snakepit. That's what your apartment is for.
To Jim & Soco
1. I understand that the D-Backs have had bad luck in the past with veteran pitchers who haven’t been aces, but I’m confident in Joe Saunders having a good stint in Arizona.
2. Right now it makes more sense to look at the trade as a Haren for Saunders trade, then revisit the trade when the prospects make it to the Arizona roster.
Thank You for the comments!
Wins
If the D-Backs score 9+ runs per game for Saunders (like the Angels did last year), Saunders will do fine. Then again, so would damn near anybody.
If Haren was being paid a higher salary
then I would say that the trade was ok. As it stands though I think that the Angels got the better of the deal.
But as last night showed, any transaction can be made to look good or bad by an injury to one of the parties.
"The stars don't shine down upon us. We're in the way of their light."
by Arizona via Slough on Jul 27, 2010 1:37 PM EDT reply actions
Nope.
If the Bucs or Orioles had a legitimate #1 ace like we do getting paid big bucks (even if it’s comparably low), they’d be dealt, too.
Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like mouth?
The cool Snakepit.
Unless their young phenoms
Teams like the Bucs and Orioles just need to do a better job with management. The Orioles looked good during the off season but everything went south for them. Same with the D-Backs.
But the Bucs nor Orioles
would be in different positions than us. All we needed was a non-shitty bullpen and a left fielder and we would’ve been fine. Both the Pirates and Orioles have terrible offenses, defenses, pitching, and baserunning. Only one of those areas are a problem for us.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 30
Eh
I think it’s a reach to say we’d be in the playoffs with a left fielder and a bullpen, but the best either of us can do is guess.
Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like mouth?
The cool Snakepit.
Apparently
Jdub is assuming that left fielder is Barry Bonds, circa 2001 or 2002.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
Nah,
just a guy that can put up more than one WAR in a season. I’d say a 3 WAR player would do just fine, or in other words, someone like David DeJesus or Johnny Damon.
As it stands, we are 19.5 games out. Are you saying the bullpen hasn’t cost us at least 15 games (and that’s me being on the conservative side)?
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 30
Probably
But every bullpen costs games. The Padres bullpen, even with their ERA below 3, has 10 losses. If we had an average bullpen, we’d be closer to .500, but still out of the race. So you’re either expecting an outstanding left fielder or an incredible bullpen, or more likely both, if you think this team would be fine.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
That 15 games
factors in that all bullpens blow leads…
Then there’s all the tie games that we blow too, and you should expect to win about half of those games with a good bullpen…
But okay, lets go with your guess that we’d be a .500 team. That means we’re only 6.5 back of the wild card. Not bad. We’d be one game behind Colorado, and they aren’t considered “out,” are they?
That isn’t even considering if we had a real left fielder instead of Parra, who’s below average on getting on base, slugging, and isn’t a good baserunner in a position where you expect good offense.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 30
Oh
So you’ve been arguing “what would make us so we’re not effectively eliminated from the playoffs with over two months left in the season.” Whereas I (and I suspect Wailord) were thinking more along the lines of “What would actually put us in the playoffs at the end of the season.” Your standard is a lot lower. And even if our record magically changed to .500 right now, that’s still tied for 7th in the Wild Card race. That’s a lot of teams you have to outplay over the last stretch.
Also, don’t pretend I said we’d be a .500 team. I said closer to .500. Our problems are not just limited to the bullpen and one position on the field.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
Sorry,
I actually did misread that as .500. That was my fault.
Either way, teams who are anywhere near contention and not declining shouldn’t blow it up.
But what problems do we have? We’re one of the best baserunning (9th in speed score) and defensive (5th in UZR/150) teams. We’re in the middle of the pack offensively (12th in wOBA) and in starting pitching (17th in xFIP).
The offensive and starting pitching areas should improve as we go along, with players getting better and prospects coming up… In my opinion, we weren’t in such bad shape.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 30
We may be in the middle of the pack offensively
But is that the team that scored 12 against the Dodgers, or the team that scored 13 over the next five? Our offense practically needs more consistency before it can only be considered inconsistent. And I’d hardly consider top third to be “one of the best.”
Besides, middle of the road teams don’t make the playoffs. This isn’t the NBA where a .500 record means you can have a shot at the post-season.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
The only team in the NL West that has a better wOBA
than us is the Rockies.
Also, the Padres are the only NL West team to have a better speed score.
The Rockies, Dodgers and Padres are better than us in the starting pitching department, but surprisingly the Giants are worse than us… although by a single point.
And in the defensive department, we’re behind the Giants and Padres.
So we aren’t the worst in the division—a very tight division— at anything, other than pitching…. and of course, the standings. So, being second in offense and baserunning, third in defense, and (pretty much) tied with the worst starting pitching in the division… you try to make your pitching staff better, not blow the team up. Especially when your team’s core is entering it’s prime, and not declining. Because the fielding, baserunning, and hitting should get better as they enter those prime years.
It’s a shame that teams like us unnecessarily blow the team up, while teams like the Astros can’t admit that they need to blow it up.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 30
Honestly
do you believe that a team that has absolutely no shot at contending needs to be paying an ace “ace money”? It just doesn’t make sense. You don’t invest so much into a player (and yes, I understand his contract was good for what he was) if he’s not surrounded by a team that can win. Say what you want about what could fix the team, the matter of the fact is there is way too much to fix with a few simple additions, and there’s no point in hemorrhaging money when it’s being appropriated to a department that ultimately will not make a difference.
Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like mouth?
The cool Snakepit.
agreed
doesn’t mean we took the right deal for Haren, but perhaps it was. I have yet to hear a better one that was offered. It sounds like DiPoto’s hand was forced and Haren had to go.
Blogging about my summer at a Chinese law firm.
NEW BLOG, as my original one is blocked by the Great Firewall.
http://ajinshanghai.wordpress.com/
Honestly,
do you believe Haren is being paid “ace money”?
Also, you should only make trades that will help your team in the future. This will not. We got a Joe Saunders, Joe Saunders in prospect form, and a potential mid rotation starter. That isn’t a package you take for an ace.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 30
He's being paid
money that we don’t need to be spending if we’re not goign to compete. It’s like buying some durable, quality tires for a bargain (ok, in my world, you sign tires to contracts) without having a car. Sure, it may be a good deal, but the overall scheme is unchanged. Quite frankly, we can pay Haren his $25m+ and have just as legitimate of a shot at winning a championship than if we did some bargain bin shopping. It just doesn’t make a difference whether he’s here or not, we’re not going to contend for the next few years, so may as well unload his contract. It’s a great one for a contender, but not for us.
Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like mouth?
The cool Snakepit.
But there's a huge difference
Between being able to compete and being able to win. I don’t know that the team is in a place where they can blow the cash just to end up third in a competitive division.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
Silly margins
I sat here for like five hours wondering where I said anything that warranted that response.
Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like mouth?
The cool Snakepit.
Wow
The margin is a lot closer if you’ve got the page set to narrow, I guess.
"It's a fez. I'm wearing a fez now. Fezes are cool."
Aaaand
consider my page settings changed.
Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like mouth?
The cool Snakepit.
Oh please. yeah we can contend sometime in 2012 or 2013.
You need to pull your head out Jdub. We are not contenders and wont be next year. Our offense is to streaky and you cant get the Padres bullpen in a year so just stop.
I am Angry and when BattleMoses is angry Mr. Bigglesworth is upset,and when Mr. Bigglesworth is upset people DIE!!!!!!!!!
I don't understand
why you have to be rude about it… we were just having a discussion.
You can’t contend without an ace. In order to get an ace in 2012 or 2013 we need to either spend big in free agency, or re-gut our farm system.
Also, Drew and KJ will be gone… we don’t have any good replacements for either of them. Reynolds, Montero and Young will be near gone too. Pretty much, we have made it so there’s an extremely small window, and a longshot to be a winner.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 30
Well I just think you're being wildly unrealistic.
I mean in order to contend next year we’d need the farm system of the Rays and payroll flexibility like no other. guess what we have neither. I mean what are your reccomendations if you think its possible?
I am Angry and when BattleMoses is angry Mr. Bigglesworth is upset,and when Mr. Bigglesworth is upset people DIE!!!!!!!!!
by BattleMoses on Jul 29, 2010 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions
If we didn't trade Haren,
we’d have an ace, and four number three starters (Jackson, Parker, Enright, and Kennedy), and that’d be a really good rotation.
Our offense should improve, as Upton, Montero, and Reynolds get closer to their prime… and when Reynolds’ BABIP normalizes. Drew should get some power back, because actually, he has increased his line drive rate, which is always a recipe for success.
We really only have one weak spot in the lineup, which is left field, which I said we need to improve.
And picking up relievers isn’t too costly. Sign some pitchers like Benoit and Rauch, and have a full season of non-crappy Gutierrez and a full season of Demel… and the bullpen isn’t that bad. It could actually become average if Vasquez learns to control his pitches.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 30
my reccomendations
1. Pitching staff overhaul
2. Keep Adam LaRoche or sign Jorge Cantu for 1B.
3. New LF, one with some speed.
Cantu sucks.
He isn’t a good hitter, and plays a position where you expect good offense.
Also, he’s terrible at first and third.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 30
"RBI guys"
aren’t real. They’re only presented with an above average about of situations for RBIs. They’re like pitcher’s wins. They don’t matter.
Also, I’ll take stats over your scouting. He’s worth -3 UZR/150 in the field this year.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 31
Also,
Cantu has a sub .310 OBP, and raised his K% almost 7% from last year to this year.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 31
Except for
Jackson, Kennedy, Enright, Demel, Vasquez, and Gutierrez, that is.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 30
Really?
Demel’s xFIP is below 4.
Jackson, Kennedy, and Enright’s xFIPs are below 4.4.
And Gutierrez was fantastic last year.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 30
SCENE: JEFF MOORAD'S OFFICE, AUGUST OF 2007
“Look, Eric, you were fantastic last year…”
Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like mouth?
The cool Snakepit.
There's something beautiful
about a guy with two posts going third person in the title of his own analysis.
well as long as he doesn't have a buddy named
Guiseppe Consigliere we can bypass all of the Godfather references….un;less you wanna go to the matresses that is….
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
you're kidding me right.
This was a horrible trade. Dbacks didn’t even get anything in return!
we got four pitchers
and some half off nacho coupons …. not exactly empty handed, especially with the expected appreciation value of the nachos.
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
by piratedan7 on Jul 31, 2010 4:33 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This deal is all on perspective
but I will reserve cautious optimism for the future. This deal is a bad baseball move, but it is a pretty decent business move. Depends on how you view the organization.
Blogging about my summer at a Chinese law firm.
NEW BLOG, as my original one is blocked by the Great Firewall.
http://ajinshanghai.wordpress.com/
That is true
I rather keep Haren but If I’m right about Saunders then expect a fantastic off season for the Diamondbacks.
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