Dan Haren and GM Jerry DiPoto Discuss The Haren Trade
by Jim McLennan on Jul 25, 2010 9:58 PM EDT
in Diamondbacks News
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Listening to DiPoto
The one thing that concerns me more than anything else is the way he goes on about the number of wins both Saunders and the pitching prospects have. It’s disappointing to hear our new GM promote such an outdated and largely-discredited method of measuring pitching ability. The first thing that came to mind when I heard this was when we signed Russ Ortiz, and were told he “knew how to win.” I’m hoping this isn’t the same thing.
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
Haven't listened yet,
but he didn’t say “You’ve got a winner in town”, did he? Hee.
If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base. ~Dave Barry
by 4 Corners Fan on Jul 25, 2010 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I took that
as him more saying it in simpler terms, instead of bringing out a binder of exotic stats. Just because he mentioned wins in the presser doesn’t mean that was what the organization used to determine the trade.
Quit drooling, vote for me.
If they didn;t use Wins, what did they use?
I thought DiPoto was very specific about the Wins. Compared him to Halladay as having a similar amount of Ws during the last two years. Compared Joe Saunders to Roy Halladay. Also mentioned that Corbin has the most Wins in the minors. WINS!
This is by far the low point in my fandom for this team. What a difference two years makes.
by Counsellmember on Jul 26, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't know
you don’t know, no one knows. This is just a press conference.
No crying in the Snakepit. That's what your apartment is for.
Fire Josh Byrnes!
oh wait….
Blogging about my summer at a Chinese law firm.
NEW BLOG, as my original one is blocked by the Great Firewall.
http://ajinshanghai.wordpress.com/
Dear Dan Haren,
I love you as a pitcher. No homo.
You’re among the best in the game.
It’s a shame that generally only D’Backs fans acknowledge that.
I’m glad you get the chance to compete, in a place that you want to be in.
I will root for you to succeed. I know you will.
Thanks for the 2 1/2 great years, and good luck in Anaheim.
P.S.: Don’t be depressed that you were traded for someone like Joe Saunders, a crappy AAA pitcher, an okay prospect, and a PTBNL, Dan. It’s not that you were a salary dump. You earn every penny of your deal. It’s just that ownership is terrible at making baseball decisions.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 28
by Jdub220 on Jul 25, 2010 11:22 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
actually
most fans know haren is a good pitcher
angels fans are rejoicing that they essentially have the best rotation in baseball for the next two years (even if they miss the playoffs this year)
by blue bulldog on Jul 26, 2010 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions
They still have to deal with Scott Kazmir's shell in one of their 5 rotation spots.
So no, not best rotation in baseball.
"Swingles is Day to Day: IE: He’s being turned into a zombie, but they don’t want the world to know for another 5 days (retroactive)" ~Zonis
Yeah,
but most fans don’t realize just how valuable he is.
People seem to view him as a good pitcher, but not one of the best in the game.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 28
A's fan here. I agree with this
I love how pundits are talking about how Haren will adjust to the AL, totally ignoring the fact that he spent three years there and was just fine.
"Swingles is Day to Day: IE: He’s being turned into a zombie, but they don’t want the world to know for another 5 days (retroactive)" ~Zonis
I don't know about this deal
Joe Saunders might do better now that he’s in the N.L., but still, Dan Haren was Dan Haren. If he was wanted by teams like the New York Yankees, that must mean he’s good.
Halos fan here.......
Just wanted to say how much Im gonna miss Joe Saunders……He was my current favorite Angel.
While he’s not nearly as flashy or as good as Haren…..he’s a guy who is gonna give it his best every 5th day. The guy is a gamer.
I know its a business and it sucks sometimes, but please give Joe a chance……he might suprise you guys.
Best of luck.
Chan Gailey's #1 Fan!
by norcaliangelsfan on Jul 26, 2010 12:49 AM EDT reply actions
Thanks
I personally am going to avoid hating on the guy until he gives reason to, but that’s not going to stop some people.
No crying in the Snakepit. That's what your apartment is for.
well of course...
there are some like me who werent thrilled with who we gave up to get Haren.
Just like Im sure some of you guys didnt want to give up Haren.
Saunders isnt gonna win any Cy Youngs or anything……..but he’ll be a team first guy and a solid role model for the younger pitchers you guys have. Plus he’ll have that taste of winning that hopefully rubs off on the other guys in the clubhouse.
Chan Gailey's #1 Fan!
by norcaliangelsfan on Jul 26, 2010 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions
i feel bad for you guys...your GM shafted you guys
I can’t believe wins is still a viable stat….at this rate i prolly would make a better GM. Best of luck to your team in the future.
Someone's bitter...
Red Hudler > Rodger Lodge
by Teixeira Who? on Jul 26, 2010 4:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Wow
As a fan of the Mariners who now get to face Dan Haren about five times a year…what the heck!?? I’d use stronger language, but it’s my first time here, but still…what the….HECK!?!
DiPito’s quotes should horrify Diamondbacks fans. He’s not just trying to put a good face on this thing…he actually based his decision to trade the most valuable commodity in baseball (top-notch starting pitching) on the worst stat in any sport: the pitching Win. He probably went deep into baseball geekery and dug up some obscure stat about the Average number of Runs Earned by a pitcher per Nine Three-out Innings Pitched as well and determined that Saunders’ 4.62 makes him nearly as good as Haren with his 4.60. They’re almost the same!! And the Diamondbacks got a bunch of other guys, too!!
What’s worse…DiPito is not even the real GM. Nor, after this, should he ever be given the job permanently. But this is a terrible sign that the ownership is also clueless enough to let a temporary guy deal the top one or two guy on the team, who’s not even making that much money.
I guess we should withhold judgment until the PTBNL is revealed. There’s a chance it will be a pretty good prospect. But when DiPito says they’re focused on A-ball talent he’s essentially saying the team won’t win for two or three years…and he’s totally ok with that.
Just to be clear…as an M’s fan I love facing Joe Saunders. He’s really not very good. The D-Backs outfield is better than the Angels’ so that should help a little. But you traded a solid #1 starter for a #4 and non-blue-chip prospects. Which would be fine if the #1 was about to leave for big money, but the team had him for two more years on a very good deal. There’s little chance the Diamondbacks will not regret this deal, IMO.
Being John Malkovich ?
He’s not just trying to put a good face on this thing…he actually based his decision to trade the most valuable commodity in baseball (top-notch starting pitching) on the worst stat in any sport: the pitching Win.
How do you know what he actually based his decision on ? Were you in the room when the decisions were being made ?
I'm judging based on the words coming out of his mouth
He repeatedly goes back to Saunders’ wins and win percent. Sounds to me like he thinks pitching wins matter.
Well the matter of fact is he made a horrible decision.
Many teams could’ve topped that. The fact that he wanted Saunders and two meh prospects and a PTBNL reflects poorly on his decision making and his talent evaluation (wins and winning percentage wooooo). Saunders will be making close to 6 million the next fear years he’s not cheap for a guy of his talent level and the two “prospects” coming over are not that great and even if the PTBNL is Skaggs you still got quantity over quality in this deal. You’d expect something along the lines of the Erik Bedard/Cliff Lee deals for trading away THREE YEARS OF HAREN. He traded away the D’backs best shot at a complete and total rebuild for crap.
You got slurved!
Coming from a Mariners fan...
Oh look, another AL (west) fan scared of Dan Haren. Don’t worry, it’s not like you’re in contention for a playoff run anyways.
No need to be a jerk
It’s a questionable move to fans of 29 teams in the league.
"Hey, I don't mean to rush you, but you are keeping two civilizations waiting!"
by kishi on Jul 26, 2010 2:32 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It's cool
The M’s are totally laughable right now. Next year, I expect we’ll be in contention again, made all the more difficult by the D-Backs giving this gift to the rival Angels. But I suppose Angels fans were just as ticked when Philly let Cliff Lee go in a somewhat lopsided deal. The Texas deal probably also ticked off the Angels…but at least it took some talent away from the Rangers long-term.
All I’m saying is that this move is a bad sign for the leadership of the D-Backs…a team with some good players in a winnable division. They just got set back for two or three years. The M’s are bad, but it’s because the players just haven’t played up to their career numbers…not because of poor decisions by the FO.
I hope you guys are in contention again next year.
Seattle is my fourth favorite team, behind the D’Backs (of course), Rays, and Rangers (sorry). You guys just need some offense!
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 28
What other strengths does Saunders have besides Wins?
Saunders’ ERA for the last two years is around 4.60. His FIP is over 5.00. He’s striking out less than 5K/9. He’s walking over 3BB/9. He’s allowing over 1 HR/9.
Yes, he won 16 games last year, but he had a whopping 9.44 runs of support in his starts. That’s how you go 16-7 with a 4.89 ERA.
Treat Colonel Saunders well, D-Backs, and he will treat you!
He’s always seemed to sack up when it really counts (I’m thinking of the ALDS, ALCS, Greinke duel and a few more).
"You gotta have nuts." / "Coming Around 3rd, especially if I'm ticked off, that's going to happen." - Torii Hunter
Too bad
he will not have an opportunity to pitch in any post season games with us.
by Counsellmember on Jul 26, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
In this Angel's fan humble opinion...
Joe belonged in the NL (especially the NL West). His sinking pitches have the potential be devastating in your ballpark. He’s not an ace but he’s a hell of a gamer who (as mentioned above) seems to rise to every occasion. This deal isn’t nearly as lopsided as the national media is making it out to be (what the hell would they know about West Coast baseball anyways?). You guys got a quality starter who, this year aside, was very reliable and had his share of brilliance. Also, you guys got a class act who will never embarrass you Zambrano style.
Joe Saunders will always be in the hearts of Angels fans and I’m glad we can now share that with you guys. Treat him well. Not to mention, I’m particularly excited to watch Joe kick the Dodger’s ass 5 times a year.
Red Hudler > Rodger Lodge
I think im in the minority of people here who are excited about The Colonel.
I am Angry and when BattleMoses is angry Mr. Bigglesworth is upset,and when Mr. Bigglesworth is upset people DIE!!!!!!!!!
That minority will grow.
And kudos on picking up the nickname.
Red Hudler > Rodger Lodge
by Teixeira Who? on Jul 26, 2010 5:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm interested to see the Colonel pitch
(And totally aboard with the nickname.)
I’m just sad to see Haren go, and don’t feel like it was a very good trade.
"Hey, I don't mean to rush you, but you are keeping two civilizations waiting!"
Thanks
It’s really encouraging and discouraging to see how well regarded Joe is in Anaheim. As if this trade weren’t recieved well enough by us fans in AZ, I also feel like we are breaking up a family out there, and for no good reason.
I’ll look forward to getting to know Joe, err, The Colonel, and hopefully he’ll find the desert tolerable during his time with us.
by Counsellmember on Jul 26, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
skaggs is actually good
he’s a 19 year old in mid-A who generates a lot of groundballs (1.6 GO/FO) and strikes out one per inning without walking too much
not really a blue chip prospect the way jacob turner is…….but still, i’m glad we didn’t completely screw up and at least still got him (though of course i was dreaming the PTBNL was trout)
problem is….he’s still a ways away from the big leagues, as are our younger pitching prospects that have talent
and what happened to saying we wanted quality over quantity? colbin’s upside AT BEST another joe saunders…
i wonder if we freaked out at not having any left handed pitching so we went and drafted three of them
i just don’t understand this trade that much. why did we bother picking up a back end of the rotation starter who is going to be fairly expensive? are we aiming to compete next year? probably not, as we lost our only chance at having a top of the rotation ace……..jackson/kennedy/saunders/enright are all 3/4 and 4/5 starting pitcher types. are we aiming to compete in 2012 when jarrod parker and marc krauss should join the lineup? if that’s so, then we’re putting a ton of hope on parker becoming the next long-term ace of the dbacks, and that he’ll be ready to shoulder that burden by 2012. we just aren’t going to have scary arms at the top of the rotation for the next couple of years.
coupled with the rumors that we’re thinking about cutting payroll to 60 million next year, and it seems like we aren’t going to try to contend for a while….which is unfortunate because much of our core that perform above average will be gone by then (chris young, mark reynolds, stephen drew, maybe even miguel montero)…….think about those positions, CF 3B SS C that we’ll probably need to replace if we want to compete three years down the line which means we’ll also need to gamble that their replacements (pollock, davidson/borchering/wheeler, owings?, schmidt) will all pan out by that time…
i wonder if we freaked out at not having any left handed pitching so we went and drafted three of them
This is my thinking as well. Like it matters that much that you would throw away a player like Haren.
FWIW, I agree with everything you said.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 28
So many freak outs
The FO seems to freak out at the drop of a batting helmet nowadays.
by Counsellmember on Jul 26, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Hopefully,
they freak out so much they sell the franchise.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 28
How much Money does Tony Clark have?
The Dbacks seem to have given him enough over the years.
by Counsellmember on Jul 26, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
A mirror image
of the fan base, it would seem.
No crying in the Snakepit. That's what your apartment is for.
our new
Theme Song for the team.
Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Jul 26, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Angels fan here. I come in peace.
I’m excited about Dan Haren yet I’m well aware he is having a down year. I looked at his stats and his peripherals look fine, striking out a lot of guys and walking pretty much nobody, typical Dan Haren. But for whatever reason he’s allowed 161 hits in 141 innings, good for a .285 BAA.
So I’m asking D-Backs fans who watched him on a regular basis this year, what gives? Why is he giving up so many hits? Is there a decline in his stuff or are hitters just making adjustments and he isn’t making any?
"F it, let's pitch." - Ervin Santana
by Chzburger Jones on Jul 26, 2010 9:12 AM EDT reply actions
i think he's getting unlucky
ridiculous high BABIP this year has contributed to an underwhelming ERA
the one concern with haren is that he’s giving up a lot of home runs. his home run per flyball rate has increased each year he’s been in arizona, so that is a legitimate concern. however, most people don’t think a 14% HR/FB rate will remain that high, so he’ll probably regress a little for the better
more importantly, anaheim depresses home runs by 15% under league average (whereas chase has 11% over league average) so you shouldn’t worry too much about it
when every single non-dbacks fan says the deal is good for the angels, then there’s very little you should worry about
for as optimistic a fan i can be (i believed the jackson/kennedy for scherzer trade could be good even when most non-dbacks fans disagreed) i have to say this trade strikes me as disappointing…..
by blue bulldog on Jul 26, 2010 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
I honestly think
he was pressing a bit… knowing he had to go 8-9 innings every start to possibly get a win.. I wonder how much of the damage was done in innings 7-9 of Haren starts…. then go from there
Professional Lurker... if you see this, there may be a problem..
Disagree with all of the carping about how bad the trade is
Trades like this never are what they seem. Meaning, you don’t know for a couple of years. One thing we do know is the DBacks need arms in their system and they got that…..so time will tell if this worked. They save $30M in 2 yrs. I think they will make some more moves. Shed more of next yrs salary and go get a number 1 next yr in FA.
where is this magical number 1
that we are going to purchase in FA?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/2012-mlb-free-agents.html
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/2011-mlb-free-agents.html
by blue bulldog on Jul 26, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Also,
even if there was a pitcher we could get, 30MM ain’t going to get a new ace.
Another thing, if we did get an ace, he’s probably going to be paid above market value, while Haren is paid below market value.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 28
Waiting for trades
Trades like this never are what they seem. Meaning, you don’t know for a couple of years
This is a sentiment a lot of people talk about, and rightly so. It’s possible we just traded Dan for three eventual Cy Young winners in the future. But what is the probability that this is how things will shake out?
There are so many concerns here it’s hard to know where to begin:
Metrics The emphasis on WINS is hard to deny listening to the statements by the FO. 95% of fans at this site, and hopefully 100% of actual management personel in MLB know what a horrid stat this us to base your analysis of a player. This is how I feel Edwin Jackson was valued; WINS and ERA during half of one season. Saunders is another step in that direction.
Timing What was the rush? Would not have Oswalt being dealt first possibly raised the demand for Haren? What happened between Friday and Sunday that made the FO go from “we need to be blown away” to “Haren must be traded before his next start”? Did DiPoto have tickets to SDCC this weekend?
Negotiation Does the FO not have a concept of Sell High, Buy Low? We’re in the cellar and hold the highest chip in the poker game…this should have been a slam dunk win or a non-trade.
No matter how this turns out in the end, AZ has shown a severely disappointing grasp of basic baseball management.
by Counsellmember on Jul 26, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
This is how I feel Edwin Jackson was valued; WINS and ERA during half of one season
I disagree. JB is much more intelligent than DiPoto.
I think that trade was made on the basis that two starters are better than a starter and a reliever, EJ would put up similar numbers to Scherzer, and would be better due to his league change.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 28
Oh,
and EJ was only a 13 game winner anyways, so that didn’t matter.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 28
True
I guess Wins was not the big or only metric used on EJ last off-season. The point I was attempting was the use of outdated stats compared to newer ones. Surely, EJ was highly valued on his first half ERA and Wins total last year.
When his availability became known after 2009 I remember wondering which team would be foolish enough to trade for a pitcher who’s success was based laregly on “luck”.
by Counsellmember on Jul 26, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
I agree, that trade was a 2-1 deal. And in fairness, so far it seems to have been a better deal than most experts and fans thought it was at the time.
However, what made it a better deal? It’s Kennedy. The kid with great minor league numbers and multiple useable pitches, but who had struggled at the major league level. It is the perfect example of the Buy Low mentality (relatively speaking, no Yankee prospect is seen as "low).
But Jackson has been pretty much as expected; a pitcher with great “stuff” who had an amazing half season but has otherwise been mediocre. With him, I strongly feel we “bought high”.
by Counsellmember on Jul 26, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Well,
giving up Scherzer isn’t all that much, because I doubt he’ll see his whole six years in Detroit as a starter without getting injured.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 28
Always in motion is the future
Absolutely true. And I am OK with the FO not being willing to take that risk.
But Scherzer had value. Lots of value. I love the Kennedy part of the trade. Was there no way to get another piece that was young, talented, and under valued due to unlucky results? That’s what we got in Kennedy, and what the Angels got in Haren.
by Counsellmember on Jul 26, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
My point was,
that we made a good trade there.
8 years combined from starters is better than probably 4 years of a starter and 7 from a reliever (Schlereth 6 years, Scherzer, most likely one)
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 28
And biggest predictor of pitching injuries
is past injuries, especially with young pitchers.
"Swingles is Day to Day: IE: He’s being turned into a zombie, but they don’t want the world to know for another 5 days (retroactive)" ~Zonis
Yes
I dont argue that the trade may be a good one, on the whole.
Im saying it would have been better if we got another Kennedy type pitcher (great minor league track record, undervalued from record in majors) rather than Jackson who had a fluke half season and was over valued.
by Counsellmember on Jul 26, 2010 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
i can sort of agree with that about buying high on jackson and buying low on kennedy
and you’re right, the ultimate problem with the haren deal is that we REALLY sold low on him. either sell him high or don’t sell at all…
we probably weren’t going to get a better deal. tigers didn’t want to give us turner. cardinals didn’t want to give us shelby miller. for god’s sake, the yankees weren’t even willing to give us noesi…
which means we shouldn’t have sold haren at all
only one scenario can possibly explain why this trade makes sense, and that’s we have the best doctors in all of baseball who have realized after 1000 plus innings haren’s arm is about to torpedo and we needed to get what we could before that happened (and somehow the angel’s doctors don’t think so). if haren doesn’t decline drastically within the next two years, this trade will have been a terrible mistake…
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/haren-and-the-diamondbacks-young-core/
i understand that the dbacks core has underperformed. but from a metrics standpoint, we have a very talented team, and have had quite a bit of bad luck. as the article points out, a 5 WAR ace is an asset that could really give us a chance to make the playoffs, and even if we don’t have the necessary pieces to contend next year, having a 5 WAR haren around for 2012 is a difference maker. even assuming haren doesn’t live up to the high standards we have set for him, haren’s downside (except for injury, which is a sunk risk for every pitcher) is probably a 3 WAR pitcher, which is basically the BEST possible upside of saunders…..which means this move is completely weakly dominated by trading haren away
unless we plan on tanking the next two years…which wastes two years of upton’s amazing contract and forces us to come up with replacements for key core members…not necessarily a smart move
by blue bulldog on Jul 26, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Tanking the next two years
I think is what they are planning on. With DiPoto’s comment about “reconnecting” to our strength in A ball."
But if that’s the case, was Saunders the best option for a workhorse to get us through that time? Doesn;t seem like it.
by Counsellmember on Jul 26, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I really don't think
We have a chance in 2011, with or without Haren. Luck or no luck, how many 100-loss teams have ever made the playoffs the following season?
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
by Jim McLennan on Jul 26, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Or even in the following two seasons
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
by Jim McLennan on Jul 26, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I just checked
Since 1970, no team has gone from 100 losses to the post-season. Only three have made it two years later (2008 Rays, 1985 Giants, 1979 A’s). Basically, write-off 2011, and in all likelihood, 2012 too for the Diamondbacks.
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
by Jim McLennan on Jul 26, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
You judge trades based on the information the parties had at the time. The only thing we need to wait for is to find out the PTBNL, which could change this from a really bad trade, to a bad or merely “meh” trade for Arizona.
Either way it looks like the ownership and management don’t care about winning next year, or even the year after since the guys they got are so young.
You judge trades based on the information the parties had at the time.
Ex-friggin’-actly. This is why I don’t understand the people who say, “lets wait until 2012 to judge it.” If it’s pretty universally considered a fail, it probably is.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 28
Not when you are dealing with prospects
You have to wait for them to pan out or not. It’s different with a trade that involves major-league (or near) players, like the Scherzer-Kennedy, etc. one, because you have a much better idea of their potential. Anyone who says they know for a certainty how Corbin and Skaggs will pan out, is a liar.
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
by Jim McLennan on Jul 26, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
that's true
but not all prospects are created equal
skaggs is good. i agree. but getting skaggs and corbin isn’t as good as say, being able to get jacob turner and andrew oliver (which the tigers weren’t willing to do…..which is evidence of the market for haren being bad) or even the yankee pitcher in AA (who they also didn’t want to trade)
and if we are tanking why even get saunders? why not just try to field some of our AAA or AA pitchers and see if we can find another enright?
by blue bulldog on Jul 26, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, Saunders was pointless
I’d rather have had another good High-A prospect, who will be ready to help us in 2013 or so.
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
by Jim McLennan on Jul 26, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I would venture to say
that us taking Saunders was in a way us paying part of Haren’s salary. Because Saunder’s income is going up in arbitration next year we take on a more manageable contract in lieu of Haren’s contract to help with LAAs costs in acquiring a larger contract.
Blogging about my summer at a Chinese law firm.
NEW BLOG, as my original one is blocked by the Great Firewall.
http://ajinshanghai.wordpress.com/
If you trade
an ace for two crappy prospects and one good one, you can safely say that you didn’t get what you wanted. None of those prospects are going to be able to match Haren, and I’m not even sure all those players will match Haren combined.
Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 28
Evaluating prospects
There are ways to evaluate a prospect’s odds of making the majors and what their contribution will likely be. Roll that up with the win value and you can put a dollar value on a prospect.
I haven’t seen this done with this trade, but Haren has a huge expected positive dollar value over and above his contract and I doubt the players coming back equals that number. Especially since Joe Saunders probably has a negative value (contract worth more than the wins he’ll deliver).
There are two interesting kinds of analysis you can do on a trade…the kind where you evaluate how well each GM did in the deal, and the kind where you look at the ultimate realized value to each team. I’m doing the former here…and for that you have to look at what is currently known since that’s what the GM’s have to work with.
I was suprised we didn't wait for the Oswalt deal
Once he went, teams would have been more desperate i’m sure. So, we either got the players we really wanted or we showed some inexperience.
Here's a list of good prospects that should be ready or already in the majors by 2012-2013
In order of likelyhood of being in the majors.
Jarrod Parker
Brandon Allen
Marc Krauss
Paul Goldschmidt
Charles Brewer
Chase Anderson
Matt Davidson
Ollie linton
Hester/Coughlin/Schmidt/Kim/Perez (all catchers)
Wade Miley
Josh Collmenter
Corbin
the PTBNL
I think we’ll have a nice little stockpile of prospects. I mean there’s a lot of chance involved, but we have a lot of prospects right on the A/AA cusp right now. If you add in the two high picks we’ll have next year if loux doesn’t sign, plus any more prospect we get in other trades… I think we could be on the cusp again in a few years.
by C. Wesley Baier on Jul 26, 2010 2:27 PM EDT reply actions
that list just off the top of my head...
Anyway, Emily’s getting her computer fixed, so the two of us will be gone for the next couple of days.
by C. Wesley Baier on Jul 26, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
don't get me wrong
i think we have talent in the minors
but that talent is unaffected by the trade….
why do you give up haren, who most people would project to be a 4 WAR contributor at least in 2012? we didn’t get anyone back who can compensate for the loss of haren’s WAR (corbin is not going to generate 4 WAR in the majors on a yearly basis, and skaggs won’t be ready to enter the majors in 2012)
parker maybe (hopefully) will be a legitimate top of the rotation starter. but he’s never even pitched a full year in AA
collmenter and miley have slowed down considerably in AAA. i still like collmenter, because his AA numbers were truly sick, and i’m hoping he can figure it out. but miley i’m not so high on, because his walk rates are terrible, and that pretty much ALWAYS translates into fail at the major league level. clearly, our FO isn’t high on miley either cuz we just picked up three left handed starters
i love charles brewer. and i think chase anderson has potential as well, though for some reason we’ve been using him as a middle relief pitcher (3 innings per game…are we trying to limit his innings?) but they are still young, in high-A….lots of things could go wrong before then (and again, we’d still have them even without the haren trade…so their value is sunk)
the offense you listed is interesting, but also overlapping. allen, goldschmidt (and maybe even davidson) all fill 1B position, and it’s not like they are justin smoak level talent…..i believe they have a chance to be good (with davidson, all-star level good especially if he can stick at 3B, and goldschmidt’s upside feels like stanton to me) but the biggest problem is they don’t fill the up-the-middle holes we are going to be experiencing once drew, chris young, and kj leave…
i’m just saying tanking these next couple of years is no guarantee that we can contend in 2012-2013…and that even granting you that our best windows to contend are 2012-2013 (which i sort of agree, because we WILL have parker and krauss by then) we should still have kept haren to have in the rotation then because at best haren could still have top of the rotation material and if you wanted a conservative estimate haren would still be a number 3 starter
unless skaggs (who i assume is the PTBNL) becomes a top of the rotation starter by 2013 (because there’s very little chance he’s making it to the majors before then) i think we have to be disappointed
by blue bulldog on Jul 26, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Well I'm not defending the haren trade, i'm just trying to look at the possible future for the team.
Let’s say the dbacks don’t sign loux, and have two picks in the top 10 of the draft. They could theoretically sign two pitchers with high upside. That alone could change the situation dramatically, especially if they end up being fast riser.
Cy Is signed through 2014/2015 and upton is signed till 2015. Parker will be nearing his peak years around that time, Allen will either stick, or will be replaced with Goldschmidt/Wheeler. Left field will be Krauss. Catcher should be montero+one of hester/schmidt/perez/coughling/kim. Thirdbase should be handled by Davidson/Borchering…
c Montero/Hester/Coughlin/Schmidt/Perez/Kim
1b. Allen/Goldschmidt
2b. Tony Abreu or maybe David Nick
SS Chris Owings
3b Reynolds(if we don’t trade him) and eventually davidson
Lf Krauss
CF CY
RF TJU
The rotation is less guaranteed but it’s problably going to look like this:
Parker
Kennedy
Enright
with the 4th and 5th spot are going to come from the 2009/2010/2011 draft.
by C. Wesley Baier on Jul 26, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
chris young is only signed through 2013
and i don’t think we disagree in that the future isn’t completely dark.
but that lineup assumes ALL of these hitting prospects pan out, and it’s just not likely to happen
the rotation still looks pretty weak, because we have little idea what parker is going to be like (though i hope the best) after TJ, kennedy is a 3 at best, and enright is a 4/5 (don’t be fooled by the small sample size era)
by blue bulldog on Jul 26, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe he has an option for 2014
I should have a mfin theme song.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Jul 26, 2010 3:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
anyone know much about Linton?
i heard he is a great CF and lead off type of guy?
No power, good OBP, good speed, great defense
He’s hitting 298/415/364 with 9 doubles, 3 triples, a homer, with 46 walks and 68 strikeout. really needs to work on his baserunning… 15 steals, but has been caught 13 times.
His best year was last year in visalia where he hit 295/394/399 with 28 doubles, 10 triples, a homer, and 65 walks and 104 strikeouts. Much better SB:CS ratio of 28:14 last year…
His upside is basically juan pierre.
by C. Wesley Baier on Jul 26, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
juan pierre when he was good
would be a fantastic thing. Florida Marlins Juan Pierre is a player I want on my team.
Blogging about my summer at a Chinese law firm.
NEW BLOG, as my original one is blocked by the Great Firewall.
http://ajinshanghai.wordpress.com/
So basically...
We’re going to trade Laroche, Kelly Johnson, Snyder, and Jackson. we’re going to load up on prospect that are in mid to high a, then punt until 2012. Correct?
by C. Wesley Baier on Jul 26, 2010 2:42 PM EDT reply actions
pretty much...
i think we have to unload jackson now
the only thing i can think of is if completely unload salary (a la jackson/snyder/haren) then we better be using that money to sign some really good draft picks next year
by blue bulldog on Jul 26, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
if that's the case I could see them trading CY
I like CY. Love his glove….like his pop. Like how he is getting agressive on the bp’s. My 9 yr old loves him…he would be devistated if we trade him but…….
He will never be a lead off hitter, has highest value ever right now and we need to shed some strikeout guys in our lineup. MR and Upton aren’t going anywhere so that leaves CY and Laroche
Personally
I’d be more likely to trade MR than CY – more easily replaceable, and even more K’s shed that way. However, you’re right about CY’s value being higher.
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
by Jim McLennan on Jul 26, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
we'd be trading low on MR
if we’re tanking even 2012, then CY and MR will go eventually…i’d rather have reynolds build up some more value though
but yeah, if we had been able to add reynolds into the deal to pick up trout……….aaaaargh i’d be so sad we didn’t throw him in
by blue bulldog on Jul 26, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
we should trade cy
if we were tanking next year, and considering tanking 2012….
but our FO doesn’t know how to sell high, so we probably won’t trade CY
by blue bulldog on Jul 26, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
we have to get kids in here who can make contact
I am so damn sick of watching us leave men on 3rd with 0 or 1 out. It is disgusting. I’ve really never seen anything like it and been watching baseball for 30 yrs
Fun story
Did you know the DBacks have the third best batting average in the league with runners in scoring position? Yeah, we’re not as apocalyptically bad with runners on as every seems to think we are. Every team leaves runners on at times. It’s called baseball, the best batters fail sometimes. A lot. If that’s especially distressing, maybe this isn’t the sport for you.
"Hey, I don't mean to rush you, but you are keeping two civilizations waiting!"
baseball is a sport for all.
It might seem odd that Arizona leads the majors in SPAD, considering they’re 12 games below .500 and firmly entrenched in the NL West cellar. Arizona’s impressive .292 RISP avg. (tied for third in MLB) has simply not been enough to offset a pitching staff that owns the worst ERA in baseball (5.47) and an overall batting average of .250 (14th in the NL), as evidenced by their 5-10 record in one-run games.
I think it is a misleading stat. my eyes tell me a different story.
Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Jul 26, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Eyes can be misleading
Eyes tell people that Orlando Hudson was the same good fielder in his last year with the Diamondbacks, because he would run over to catch a high fly in foul territory, while his defensive stats were declining.
The nature of fans is the dwell on the flashy, big moment, while ignoring a half dozen other, less memorable occurrences that give evidence to the contrary.
"Hey, I don't mean to rush you, but you are keeping two civilizations waiting!"
The nature of fans is the dwell on the flashy, big moment, while ignoring a half dozen other, less memorable occurrences that give evidence to the contrary.
can totally agree. Jim had stats up about Shea Hillenbrand (sp?) that went completely against what my eyes told me. When we have bases loaded with no outs and do not score a run, it gets magnified big time in our minds, so the next time, it seems like this is how it ALWAYs happens.
Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Jul 26, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
found something you may or may not find interesting, but thought I'd share it
The idea of a clutch hitter is a dubious measurement to begin with, because clutch hitting tends to fluctuate from season to season. Looking for clutch hitting in a team is an even less useful activity. Batting average with RISP doesn’t come with enough context to have hardly any meaning.
Don’t fall prey to the RISP bogeyman
Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Jul 26, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Please, show me where used the phrase "clutch hitting"
Shockingly, I say absolutely nothing about clutch hitting. I’m saying one thing and one thing only: when it comes to having runners in scoring position, we get hits with a higher frequency than 27 other teams in the league. The idea that we aren’t hitting with runners on is an oft-repeated fallacy inspired by fans who are dwelling on the times we strand runners, while ignoring A) the times we get a hit with runners on and B) the fact that other teams do it all the time, too.
"Hey, I don't mean to rush you, but you are keeping two civilizations waiting!"
LOL
okay, that was fun.
you didn’t read it, did you?
Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Jul 26, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I did
And he’s talking about a span of six games.
"Hey, I don't mean to rush you, but you are keeping two civilizations waiting!"
I took that as just an example, but that fine. glad you read it.
Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Jul 26, 2010 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, it is frustrating
we complain about it all the time in the GDT’s ourself. You expect them to fail now anytime they have RISP.
Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Jul 26, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
we better unload Snyder and Laroche
That is probably why they jumped on the Angels deal…knew they had work to do the rest of the week
So the real tragedy here
Is that I’m gonna have to wait to see who comes out unscathed to buy a jersey/uniform. Or I’ll have to go the safe route and buy one without a name or a number.
My imagination is greater than your nay-say.
I would go
For one with “PTBNL” on the back, above a ?
"It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand." -- Brian Stimpson
by Jim McLennan on Jul 26, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Urgh...
I will now take out my frustration on my insides by eating a Sriracha sandwich.
Mr. Science Boy
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