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D'backs and the Deadline: Who gets dealt first? (now with 100% more writeup!)

edit: those who had cojack as their pick win a teddy bear from the wall

The latest from MLBTR (via Jon Heyman) says that the D'backs organization is open to dealing anyone but Upton and Kennedy (. Take out of this what you will; I can't see us dealing Haren unless we get something ridiculous in return, and his value's not exactly peaking at the moment, and I don't see us dealing Reynolds, either, having just signed an extension through 2012. Regardless, going purely off of what Heyman's saying (and assuming the deals are there), Reynolds, Haren, Drew, KJ, LaRoche, Edwin, and Snydes could all potentially get moved in the coming weeks, a pretty trippy thought (though, we knew most of this). Who gets moved first? Read on for some quick thoughts on each of the candidates.

Dan Haren is supposed to be our franchise "ace". Originally part of the two-headed pitching monster that was the top of our rotation (along with Webby), Danny's seems to have his calendar out whack, pitching like it's the second half. His ERA+ at the moment sits at 93, the lowest since his rookie year with St. Louis and a full 53 points down from last year. His K/9 rate's gone up (it's risen every year since he entered The Show), albeit slightly, but his HR/9 is nearly up 50% from last year (1.1 to 1.6). He's clearly struggling, and the fact that he's getting $12.75 million for the next two years along with a $15.5 million club option for 2013 (along with a $3.5 million buyout) probably makes everyone a bit uneasy when compared to the production we're seeing - regardless, after dealing so much to get him from the A's, I can't see us dealing Danny unless the offers we get are outstanding.

 

Edwin Jackson, part of the three-team deal that sent Max Scherzer to Detroit and Curtis Granderson to the Yanks, seemed to be a bit of gamble on Arizona's part. We picked up a guy coming off of a career year with Detroit (ERA+ of 161) in hopes that he would continue to put up those numbers (as well as now-untouchable Ian Kennedy) in return for both Max and Daniel Schlereth. It seems that Edwin's turning the corner after beginning the season on an awful note (1-5 with a 7.43ERA in eight starts), going 2-1 with a 2.87ERA in five starts since. I don't see us giving up on Edwin so quickly, even if it would help us with the farm system - regardless, like Haren, I don't think we'll see the value we deserve if we shop him at this point. Edwin's set to make $4.2 million this year and $8.35 million the next.

 

Chris Snyder, unlike the rest, is the only one on this list that we know to have been shopped at some point, as we found ourselves a physical away from netting former-Dback Lyle Overbay from Toronto in exchange for Snyder. He sports a "meh" OPS+ of 94, though we shopped him in the offseason as he came off of a shortened season (61 games played) where he only hit for an OPS+ of 75. There have been whispers of him being dealt to Texas to join the Rangers, as they lack depth at the position. I think we'll see Snyder dealt fairly promptly if Miguel Montero comes back and picks up where he left off - dude's got an OPS+ of 190 on the season (ok, maybe he only played in four games and had 12AB. ssh). Either way, with Hester on the roster, once Montero proves that he'll be a quality player, I think Snyder's one of the first we see dealt. Chris is set to make $4.75/$5.75/$6.75 million over the next three years, while the final year is a club option with a $750,000 buyout.

 

Adam LaRoche is certainly no stranger to being traded. In 2009, he began the season with Pittsburgh, getting dealt to Boston near the deadline. Just nine days later he was sent to Atalanta, where he finished the season on a tear before becoming a free agent. He seems like a very big trade candidate - if we start dealing players, it's to build a future, and a guy with a one-year contract doesn't seem to fit into that gameplan. We could probably net some nice prospects for him, too, as he's one of the biggest examples of a second-half hitter, and it's entirely possible that a contender will want to pick him up at the deadline to fuel a postseason run. MLBTR listed potential LaRoche suitors to be the Mariners, Marlins, and Angels, and Anaheim (or Los Angeles, whatever) seems to be the biggest candidate, having lost their All-Star first basemen Kendry Morales after he broke his leg... celebrating a walkoff home run. Ouch. Adam's on an affordable $6 million one-year deal with a 2011 mutual option.

 

Kelly Johnson was one of the biggest steals of the off-season. We signed him after Atlanta decided to non-tender the backup second baseman to a cool one-year, $2.35 million contract. We picked up a player with an OPS+ of 83 during his 2009 season and a career OPS+ of 103, probably to plug the hole while we built Abreu, having dealt Felipe Lopez for two prospects at the 2009 deadline. There must be something in the Arizonan air (or, y'know, the fact it's Chase), as Kelly's OPS+ sits at 137 as of writing, and he's got a legitimate shot of making the NL All-Star roster. As much of a fantastic surprise he's been, having such an effective player at such a bargain-bin price for just a year certainly screams tradebait, so don't be surprised if he's dealt as we near the trade deadline. (edit: he's actually under control for the next year and a half - something that makes him much less attractive to another team that wants a half-year rental. he's not as likely to be traded as i previously said. my bad.)

 

Mark Reynolds must be an awfully big fan of the Three True Outcomes, as 56% of his at-bats this season have ended in one of the three... though, maybe less of them could come by the strikeout, yeah, Mark? He just recently signed a contract (dude was making less than $500,000 last year when he hit 44 bombs), as he's set to make $0.5, $5, $7.5, and $11 million thorough 2013, with the final year coming with a club option and a $500,000 buyout. I don't see us dealing Reynolds, and it surprises me that he's not considered untouchable, really. He's 26, has a ton of potential, and we've got him under control for a relatively affordable price for awhile. I guess there's a microscopic chance if the price is right, but I don't see Mark getting moved anytime soon.

 

Stephen Drew is a Scott Boras client. We've got him for only $3.4 million this year, signing him after a season where he his OPS+ sat at lowly 89, and I've got a sneaky suspicion that Mr. Boras is gonna hike up his next contract considerably, as he's showing signs of Good-Drew, raising his OPS+ from 12 points from last season. I'm sure there are plenty of teams out there that would like Drew, as the kid's got talent, and the contract is an easy one to swallow for any team looking to plug a hole at shortstop. If the price is right, I can easily see Drew being dealt to a contender closer to the deadline.

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