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Is This The Worst Diamondbacks Bullpen Ever?

Any bullpen can have a bad day week month. It has not been a good April for the Diamondbacks bullpen. That's a bit like describing Napoleon's march on Moscow as "a somewhat poorly thought-out idea." However, to save any suspense you may be experiencing with regard to the above question, the answer is "No." Well, at least, "not yet." Bad though this opening period of the campaign has been, it took five runs in two innings on the last day, before it cracked the top-five monthly ERAs in Diamondbacks bullpen history. Hell, they've done a lot worse and we still made the post-season.

After the jump, we'll list the worst months for the bullpen each year, look back in more detail at the times when our relievers blew even more chunks than the current crop, and also name and shame the ten worst bullpen arms in Diamondbacks history. Did you know that Robert Howry is an anagram of "O, worry: bet HR"?

Star-divide

Year ERA Worst months
1998 4.80 April: 6.19, September: 6.12
1999 3.77 June: 5.20
2000 4.37 September: 5.05
2001 3.88 September: 5.40
2002 4.60 September: 7.79
2003 3.62 September: 4.52
2004 4.69 April: 6.43
2005 5.50 May: 6.45, June: 6.75, August: 8.10
2006 4.36 June: 6.49
2007 3.95 August: 6.05
2008 4.09 July: 5.03
2009 4.61 April 5.64
2010 ??? April 6.85

I think there's no doubt that the current crop will have to try quite hard to catch up with the 2005 bullpen - as in, deliver at least two more months at the present level of suckitude. Let's take a closer look at the five worst month in Diamondbacks bullpen history, and see how April 2010 fits in the rankings.

5. June 2006 - 6.49 [86 IP, 106 H, 62 ER, 34 BB, 91 SO]
Bullpen record: 1-5; overall record 8-20
Worst culprits: Kevin Jarvis (11.1 IP, 15 ER); Jose Valverde (10.2 IP, 15 ER)

This was the month where Arizona fell apart; they entered June leading the NL West, and exited it in last place. The bullpen was a good part of the reason, though Brandon Webb suffering only the second winless month of his career (min. two starts) didn't help there. Jorge Julio was solid as closer (14 IP, 4 ER), and Juan Cruz contributed seven scoreless innings, but our effort to corner the market in Brandons failed, with Webb, Lyon and Medders all having ERAs north of five.

4. June 2005 - 6.75 [74.2 IP, 86 H, 56 ER. 36 BB, 58 SO]
Bullpen record: 1-2; overall record: 9-19
Worst culprits: Brian Bruney (6 IP, 8 ER), Matt Herges (8 IP, 12 ER)

Competence was at a premium here, with Jose Valverde (16 IP, 5 ER), the only reliever to work five innings with an ERA better than 4.50. The bullpen fell victim to the long-ball, allowing homers at a Petit-esque rate: better than one every five innings, with Herges (four) and Mike Koplove (three in 10 IP) leading the way. It was the mop-up guys who really stank, peaking in Edgar Gonzalez's 0.1 IP, 4 ER outing which left him only one of six NL pitchers since World War II with an actual season ERA above a hundred.

3. April 2010 - 6.85 [68.1 IP,  76 H, 52 ER, 38 BB, 54 SO]
Bullpen record, 4-6; overall record: 11-12
Worst culprits: Chad Qualls (9 IP, 9 ER), Leo Rosales (10 IP, 9 ER)

We probably don't need to rehash the coroner's report on April much, but the bad news is, we can't really blame bad luck for their performance, with a BABIP of only .302. The problem is not so much opposing batters hitting the ball (BA is up only 17 points on last year, at .281), but hitting the ball hard, with the pen's slugging percentage allowed being 100 points higher. 18.4% of hits against the bullpen have left the park, compared to the 2009 NL average of 10.4%, led by Bob 'Home-Run' Howry. Only one reliever in the majors (Trevor Hoffman) had more HR hit off him last month, and Howry gave up another yesterday, so seems intent on continuing in the same vein.

2. September 2002 - 7.79 [71.2 IP, 103 H, 62 ER, 35 BB, 59 SO]
Bullpen record: 3-5; overall record 14-13
Worst culprits: Mike Fetters (7 IP, 10 ER), Mike Koplove (16.1 IP, 13 ER)

The team may have been coasting, as they entered September six games up and with a record of 84-51. At least one person wasn't: Randy Johnson went 5-0 with a 0.66 ERA, and is basically the reason why Arizona had a winning record. In the bullpen, the list of relievers included Mark Grace - but four had worse ERAs in the month: Armando Reynoso (10.80), Fetters (12.86), Greg Swindell (16.62) and Eddie Oropesa, whose 27.00 ERA was largely because he became the only NL reliever since 1997 to allow ten earned runs in an outing.

1. August 2005 - 8.10 [80 IP, 109 H, 72 ER, 41 BB, 71 SO]
Bullpen record: 0-2; overall record: 9-19
Worst culprits: Lance Cormier (14 IP, 17 ER); Brian Bruney (7 IP, 11 ER); Brandon Lyon (6.1 IP, 13 ER)

They're baaaaa-ack! Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the 2005 bullpen: undeniably the worst in Diamondbacks history to date. Over the course of the year, their collective ERA was 0.70 above any other season, but this month was the ultimate pits. Batters hit at a .323 clip off our relievers, with an OPS of .967. Oddly, they didn't get many decisions, but that was mostly because starters Brad Halsey, Javier Vasquez and (shudder!) Russ Ortiz combined for sixteen starts and a 7.93 ERA. Brandon Medders (8 IP, 2 ER) and, again, Jose Valverde (10.1 IP, 4 ER) could only provide so much competence.


Can the 2010 bullpen catch them? Well, they have certainly started off with good intent, produced the worst opening month to date, shattering the previous mark of 6.43, set in 2004. But it will take perseverance on the part of the bullpen members, and also some care, so as to be bad enough to continue in this vein, without being so bad that they merit a bus-trip to Reno. To give them something to shoot for, here are the ten worst seasons recorded by individual Diamondbacks relievers, with a minimum of 20 innings pitched.

Rk Player ERA IP Year G W L SV H R ER BB SO ERA+ HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1 Eddie Oropesa 10.30 25.1 2002 32 2 0 0 39 30 29 15 18 45 6 .348 .431 .563 .993 154
2 Greg Aquino 7.76 31.1 2005 35 0 1 1 42 29 27 17 34 58 7 .318 .409 .568 .977 157
3 Brian Bruney 7.43 46.0 2005 47 1 3 12 56 39 38 35 51 60 6 .299 .421 .481 .902 140
4 Scott Brow 7.17 21.1 1998 17 1 0 0 22 17 17 14 13 59 2 .272 .375 .432 .807 116
5 Scott Schoeneweis 7.12 24.0 2009 45 1 2 0 29 20 19 13 14 65 6 .287 .379 .485 .864 124
6 Scott Service 7.08 20.1 2004 21 1 1 0 24 17 16 10 17 66 5 .286 .371 .548 .919 136
7 Jon Rauch 6.56 23.1 2008 26 0 6 1 27 18 17 9 22 72 6 .303 .360 .584 .944 139
8 Brandon Lyon 6.44 29.1 2005 32 0 2 14 44 25 21 10 17 70 6 .341 .394 .550 .945 148
9 Greg Swindell 6.27 33.0 2002 34 0 2 0 38 23 23 5 23 74 9 .279 .301 .559 .860 117
10 Felix Rodriguez 6.14 44.0 1998 43 0 2 5 44 31 30 29 36 69 5 .259 .365 .400 .765 106

Some items to note. More than three runs of Oropesa's ERA were due to his role in the 19-1 thrashing by the Dodgers, mentioned earlier. Bruney's ERA is the second-highest in NL history, by any pitcher who got ten saves [Mike Perez had an 8.71 ERA while somehow notching a dozen for the 1994 Cardinals]. Brian is just one of three members on the list from that 2005 bullpen, which solidifies my belief that it represents the worst to date, over an entire year. Looking at the track-record of relief pitchers named Scott , it appears we should decline trade offers involving Mr. Linebrink. But interesting to note the presence of Rauch and Lyon there: they didn't turn out quite so bad. If not necessarily for us...

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Trade Upton, Reynolds, and Kelly Johnson for Mariano Rivera and Phil Hughes

Or just Upton for Broxton straight up.

Bring back the Baltimore Chop!

by dima1109 on May 2, 2010 10:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Oh, I'm sure it does. . .

Throw in Kershaw, and you may have a deal.

This game is supposed to be fun, so play like it, or else. . .

by NASCARbernet on May 3, 2010 3:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not a chance.

Kershaw and Kemp and we’ll talk. (I’m very aware how much I’m overvaluing Upton).

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 3, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Very nicely done Jim

Certainly being a bullpen pitcher isn’t glamorous. Nobody grows up dreaming of being a middle reliever. But it’s arguably the most important position on a team when looked at from a meta-analytic perspective. Their job is to either put out a fire, keep the game in line, or shut down the opposition when the opposition is most motivated to make something happen.

This game is supposed to be fun, so play like it, or else. . .

by NASCARbernet on May 2, 2010 10:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Great job on the article!

It brings some much needed perspective. It is ONLY 1 month and if it’s our worst then that means it’s all uphill from here. As always your research on interesting topics enlighten me on things I never knew about my beloved team. Thanks!

Watching you is the only drug I need.

by Dallas D'Back Fan on May 2, 2010 10:42 PM EDT reply actions  

Jim's the stat man

I suggested that he ought to apply for that Stat Analysis job with the ballclub, but he effectively said it wouldn’t be fun anymore, or something to that effect. I don’t know – I’ve learned that six figures makes work fun.

This game is supposed to be fun, so play like it, or else. . .

by NASCARbernet on May 2, 2010 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

It ain't six figures

Trust me on that. Nowhere close. :-)

"We defy augury" -- Hamlet

by Jim McLennan on May 2, 2010 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Which is why. . .

even though I have a Master’s degree in an area of applied mathematics, I didn’t apply.

This game is supposed to be fun, so play like it, or else. . .

by NASCARbernet on May 3, 2010 3:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Go Math Degrees!

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 3, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

2005

The Summer of Suck.

by Azreous on May 3, 2010 2:40 AM EDT reply actions  

I confess, I may have stopped paying attention that summer. Perhaps I don’t remember how bad that bullpen was because I didn’t watch many of the games?

by SongBird on May 3, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Did you know that Robert Howry is an anagram of “O, worry: bet HR”?

I LOL’d.

ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO KELLY JOHNSON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by DbacksSkins on May 3, 2010 2:43 AM EDT reply actions  

But then

I cried a little.

ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO KELLY JOHNSON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by DbacksSkins on May 3, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

ahhh well while we have seen suckitude in the past

have we seen it when it mattered like this, that staff of 2005 wasn’t going anywhere, are the blown saves up? I mean I can expect a comeback loss from time to time, but the amount of damage this staff is doing when we have such high hopes for this season…

I guess what I am saying is, on a team that appears to be as “good” as this one, does that make the inability of the bullpen to get anyone out exponentially more damaging? Meaning if the SP leaves and we’re down 5-4 and they cough up more runs isn’t as bad as leading by two with two innings to go and losing by two.

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on May 3, 2010 10:10 AM EDT reply actions  

....well,

those stats would certainly be covered by WPA?

ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO KELLY JOHNSON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by DbacksSkins on May 3, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

okay

but I didn’t see any WPA anywhere in amongst the stats, perhaps I’m just not looking in the right place?

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on May 3, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

I didn't put it up there

Since it’s more a measure of game situations than actual ability. But since you ask, here is the total Win Probability Added for the top months listed:

  1. August 2005: -1.39 wins
  2. September 2002: -0.90 wins
  3. April 2010: -2.80 wins
  4. June 2005: -1.10 wins
  5. June 2006: -0.32 wins

So, yes, by that measure, this was the worst of the five. Of course, there may be other months where the ERA wasn’t bad, but the leverage was. However, I wouldn’t bet on finding any…

"We defy augury" -- Hamlet

by Jim McLennan on May 3, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

ye Gods!

that is horrific!

but then again, I suspect that many of us knew that

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on May 3, 2010 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't know, Jim...

Somehow “It’s only the third worst bullpen!” isn’t as comforting as I’d hoped it would be.

"I'm always insistent, Wodehouse. But I'm not to be trusted, am I?"

by kishi on May 3, 2010 12:46 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

But this trainwreck

has derailed an otherwise impressive early season performance by other critical parts of the team. That makes this bullpen’s April “crueler” (shameless T.S. Eliot reference).

This game is supposed to be fun, so play like it, or else. . .

by NASCARbernet on May 3, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, it does have that extra dimension of feeling “cruel” as opposed to a year like 2005 when we all just expected to lose a lot.

by SongBird on May 3, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

April Is The Cruelest Month

/sorkin

Things ’Skins has in common with foulpole for 400, please. -- soco

by snakecharmer on May 3, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, I *had* been hoping

To report it didn’t even rank in the top five, but Howry and Gutierrez took care of that on the last day of April. [shakes fist]

"We defy augury" -- Hamlet

by Jim McLennan on May 3, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

It doesn’t surprise me that Mark Grace isn’t the worst on that list. If I recall, he only gave up one run in the inning he pitched. From what I remember of that game, giving up one run per inning would have been a vast improvement over what actually happened. Plus, he made that game fun. And when you are getting blown out that badly, any bit of fun helps tremendously.

by SongBird on May 3, 2010 3:56 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah

But it’s kind of sad that Mark Grace had the best ERA among relievers who used the Mike Fetters headsnap.

"I'm always insistent, Wodehouse. But I'm not to be trusted, am I?"

by kishi on May 3, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ouch.

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 3, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wow

That’s harsh, dude.

This game is supposed to be fun, so play like it, or else. . .

by NASCARbernet on May 3, 2010 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Position players in relief

In the Cards/Mets 20 (or was it 21?) inning game, Felipe Lopez pitched a scoreless inning. And some outfielder for St Louis (can’t remember who) pitched two innings and gave up one run. Maybe we should put Upton on the mound? God knows he would scare hell out of the batters – he has a cannon for an arm and no idea where it is going when he cuts it loose.

by Craig from Az on May 3, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Joe Mather

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 3, 2010 4:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Hahaha

That’s gotta be the worst way to use your $51MM investment. But it would be hysterical.

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 3, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Almost

Now, if we put Upton on the mound and brought in Dusty Baker? That would be the worst way to use our $51MM investment. =)

"I'm always insistent, Wodehouse. But I'm not to be trusted, am I?"

by kishi on May 3, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 3, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, the resulting 130+ pitch count

Would probably not be good…

"We defy augury" -- Hamlet

by Jim McLennan on May 3, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

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