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Around SBN: Nevin Shapiro Vows To Bring Down Miami

DBacks trade for RHP Carlos Rosa from Royals

According to the DBacks Twitter account, they have traded SS Rey Navarro for RHP Carlos Rosa from the Kansas City Royals. Rosa will report to Reno.

Rosa is a 25 year old from the Dominican Republic. He was signed as an international free agent in 2001, and has made appearances in the majors in 2007 and 2008, appearing in 9 games with an ERA of 3.21. Originally a starting pitcher prospect, he's been working out of the bullpen since the start of the 2009 season with a 4.43 ERA and a 4-9 record.

Royal Revival listed Rosa as their #14 prospect in the system in February.

[Edit by Jim] More analysis after the jump

Star-divide

While I imagine that this trade has been brewing for some time, yesterday's outing by the bullpen - the latest in another line of dismal showings - probably made it a necessity, if only to stop a mob with pitchforks from storming Chase Field. Though the AP report disparaged it as "a swap of minor leaguers," that seems far more the case for Navarro than Rosa, even if our new pitcher will initially report to Reno - I've a feeling his stay there probably won't be long. We'll look at him in more depth further down the story.

But what of the player we're losing? Navarro is from Puerto Rico and signed for the Diamondbacks as a 17-year old - he turned 20 in December, and had been appearing for Visalia in High-A. As noted in the comments, his rep is supposedly good defensively, though made 29 errors in 118 games last year, so even if errors are not a great measure, there seems to be room for improvement. He is certainly a light-hitter with almost no power as yet, just four home-runs in 272 minor-league games, though does have a good number of doubles. 

One point worth noting is, that this is already Navarro's fourth year in the minors, and so he needs to make the majors by the end of 2012 or he'll become a minor-league free-agent. Given he's only in A-ball, that would seem unlikely. My basic rule of thumb is, it's hard to dislike a trade when you've never actually heard of the player you're giving up. While Navarro may turn out to be useful down the line, that is far from certain.

Rosa is much closer to be being major-league ready, as you'd expect, given his age. He was initially a starter, but the Royals converted him to a reliever at the end of 2008 - seems a little surprising, as his numbers in the rotation that season were not bad (eleven starts and a 4.09 ERA). In 49 appearances and 83.1 innings since going to the pen, he has an ERA of 4.43, but minorleaguesplits.com gives Rosa a Fielding Independent MLE (Major-League Equivalence) of 4.24, which is fairly healthy.

It's a little surprising that the Royals would opt to trade him, since they are in almost as much need of bullpen help as we are here in Arizona. They had the worst relief ERA of any team in the American League in April, at 5.77 - almost a full run worse than the next-highest figure. I'd have said that Rosa would have deserved a shot in the major-league pen: while admittedly, shortstop is universally regarded as the weakest position in their farm system, the more pressing need appears to be for immediate relief help, and Rosa was decent in two (admittedly brief) stints in the majors, with a 3.21 ERA in 14 innings.

Royals prospects analyst Greg Schaum discusses the trade, and quotes an unnamed source as saying about Rosa, "He is not resilient enough to be taken seriously as a RP. I wonder if the Diamondbacks will consider moving him back to the rotation." There also seems to be some concern over a recent drop in Rosa's velocity. Schaum adds,:"Former Royals assistant GM Muzzy Jackson is now with the Diamondbacks and he was the guy that drove the Callaspo for Billy Buckner trade a couple of seasons ago. I would imagine he played an integral part in this trade."

Right, enough on this trade. I've got a Gameday Thread to write up!

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Eh...

Here’s to hope that he alleviates at least some of our troubles.

Dude, we went fishing in Cabo.

by Wailord on May 1, 2010 10:45 PM EDT reply actions  

*hoping

Dude, we went fishing in Cabo.

by Wailord on May 1, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Suppose we knew

something had to be comming soon. Too bad it had to be Rey Rey. I really like this kid. He’s got speed and raw tallent and is finally starting to mature into that tallent. But we’ve got a log jam at SS in the system and are in desperate need of some help in the pen. Overall this is probably a good deal for both teams as KC needs lots of help at SS.

by Mizzoula Osprey Fan on May 1, 2010 10:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah...

Navarro’s at Hi-A at 20 years old, and though he doesn’t have much for a bat he’s definitely got the glove for the position. High upside, though with a significant risk of failure.

As for Rosa, looks like a guy who took a while to get out of both rookie ball (albeit starting at 17 years old in America – an impressive feat) and A-level, but has since been on a pretty steady climb through the system. The bottom line is he’s probably not going to be worse than Bob Howry.

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 1, 2010 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah...

You are right about Navarro. The biggest thing still going for him is that he’s young. Rosa’s stats show he did well early on and I’m glad they kept him in Rookie ball so long. The higher leagues can be very tough on young Dominican players. Also seems like he’s recovered nicely from Tommy John in 2005. I’d probably weigh the scales slightly towards the D-backs considering our need for big league ready pitching a surplus of SS tallent (Ciriaco and Owings).

by Mizzoula Osprey Fan on May 2, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hopefully this trade isn't a complete fail.

I don’t like the ERA but i don’t much except that.

I hear voices in my head They council me They understand They talk to me.

by BattleMoses on May 1, 2010 10:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Yay for looking busy!

ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO KELLY JOHNSON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by DbacksSkins on May 1, 2010 11:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Actually,

I really do like the move. Use a surplus in an area of plenty in our org to get what we need.

I’m not really sure whether it makes much sense for the Royals, though. They get rid of Juan Cruz and now Rosa too? They must have Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, and circa 2003 Eric Gagne in their ‘pen. Just nobody’s seen it yet.

ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO KELLY JOHNSON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by DbacksSkins on May 1, 2010 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Of course

Their GM is Dayton Moore. Anytime you can make a trade with Dayton Moore and fill a position of need with a surplus position, it’s probably going to be a good trade overall.

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 1, 2010 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

True.

Sometimes I forget these things.

ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO KELLY JOHNSON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by DbacksSkins on May 2, 2010 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Thankfully

JByrnes knows the easy targets.

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 2, 2010 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

My biggest concern

Is the basic concept of us trading a shortstop prospect for a relief pitcher prospect. The one thing we have on our side is that Rosa’s a better prospect in terms of likelihood of reaching the majors and being good at his role, it’s just that his role is not as significant…

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 1, 2010 11:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Granted,

a relief pitcher who’s had a cup of coffee in the majors.

ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO KELLY JOHNSON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by DbacksSkins on May 1, 2010 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Precisely

And done pretty well in that cup of coffee as well… I expect him to be in the majors like, yesterday. Shocked he’s even reporting to Reno, I’d think we’d jettison Howry ASAP.

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 1, 2010 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

As a KC fan, i can also assure you that's there's probably little reason to expect

that Rosa couldn’t start. It’s been the Royals MO the last few years to take their best starting prospects and then convert them to relievers. They did it with Carlos Rosa, Leo Nunez, Joakim Soria, JP Howell, and even Zack Greinke, who they put in the pen in 2004 and then considered leaving him there full time because they didn’t believe he could handle starting. Meanwhile, we’ve only really developed on starting pitcher over the last five years (aside from Greinke), in Luke Hochevar. Being the number 1 overall pick in the draft forced their hand, I’m sure.

We tend to lose a lot.

batter nine you sucky

by marbotty on May 2, 2010 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

sorry, 2004 = 2007

batter nine you sucky

by marbotty on May 2, 2010 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wow... Greinke???

Granted, we’ll probably use him in the ‘pen for the time being but that’s some nice insight. Stay strong, friend. :-)

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 2, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Stopgap move

He’ll likely be in the majors very soon, as AJ will want to take advantage of the principle that when hitters face pitchers they haven’t faced before or know very little about, the advantage goes to the pitcher.

Eels are the carry-on luggage of the SnakePit. . .

by NASCARbernet on May 2, 2010 1:56 AM EDT reply actions  

From reading their thread about it

Large parts of Royals Review don’t seem pleased with the trade.

"I'm always insistent, Wodehouse. But I'm not to be trusted, am I?"

by kishi on May 2, 2010 2:00 AM EDT reply actions  

well strangely enough

the Red Sox DFA’d Alan Embree, wonder if all he needs is a change of venue….

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on May 2, 2010 11:58 AM EDT reply actions  

The FO has shown a reluctance

to bring back pitchers experienced with pitching at Chase. It would make too much sense.

I liked a lot of the off season moves, I think the club has strengthened over last year, but their negligence regarding the bullpen and pitching in general the last two seasons is holding the ballclub back.

Eels are the carry-on luggage of the SnakePit. . .

by NASCARbernet on May 2, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Worth pointing out

That Embree’s experience with pitching at Chase was 12 years ago. He’s now 40.

"We defy augury" -- Hamlet

by Jim McLennan on May 2, 2010 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't say

That they’ve demonstrated much negligence with “pitching in general.” At least Ian Kennedy, Rodrigo Lopez, and Kris Benson would disagree.

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 2, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

And, outside of one start

Edwin Jackson too.

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 2, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

*Two now

ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO KELLY JOHNSON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by DbacksSkins on May 2, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

just curious

do you think parker will be called up to the majors next year? if collmenter continues to pitch well, he should be able to contend for a spot in the rotation next year right?

we could have a pretty fearsome (albeit young) starting rotation next year imo

by blue bulldog on May 2, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's interesting

Because going into this season, I’d have said that next year could very well be a tank year. LaRoche, Webb, Howry, Qualls, Heilman, and Droo could all be headed out the door. But if we assume Webbie for dead and still perform this year, realize that Heilman and Howry leaving may not be negatives at all (if Howry lasts until the end of the season), find a way to replace Qualls (assuming he gets back on track and needs replacing), pick up LaRoche’s option, and pay Droo for a year before shipping him off, there’s no reason we couldn’t be even better in 2012.

But yet, Parker’s a future ace type who I wouldn’t put in the majors right after TJ surgery. I’d give him a year. Remember how RodLo was awful last year after TJ? Well, one year later he’s throwing up #4 starter numbers. Let him get his control back in Reno.

Collmenter, on the other hand, could definitely be a guy competing for a spot in the back of the rotation. So could Cesar Valdez, Wes Roemer, Tom Layne, Bryan Shaw, and Barry Enright, hypothetically. And from all of those guys we could definitely pull out a good #4/#5 to slot in behind Haren/EJ/IPK. Billy Buckner and Kevin Mulvey need to improve quickly and find value in the majors as a starter by the end of the year, or else I see no reason to not put them both in the ‘pen. They’re both getting old and we need to find some way to get value from them, right?

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 2, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

The bottom line here

Is that Navarro was very expendable. Despite the fact that BA has him ranked #12 in our system (which, if you ask me, is absurd – I had him at #24 on my list), the only reason he was at Hi-A was because he needed to progress a level per year (Mid-A in 2009, Hi-A in 2010, AA in 2011, AAA/MLB in 2012) to reach AAA in 2012 and possibly be called up to the 25-man Roster to not become a minor-league free agent after that season. Also, South Bend has Chris Owings, a guy who is younger, has a higher ceiling, and is producing better in a less-friendly hitting environment. So Navarro wasn’t close to the majors, and wasn’t the SS of the future, and was about to be surpassed in very short order by the SS of the future.

So, despite worries of recent velocity drops, we get a guy whose K rates are still really really high in AAA and could fill a very immediate need for us. In other words, thank you DMGM.

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 2, 2010 1:22 PM EDT reply actions  

assuming chris owings can defensively stay at SS

but yeah i agree with you…rosa’s stats in previous years in the minors look pretty good to me compared to what we had to give up in navarro

again, what worries me is that KC gave up a reliever who had reasonable amount of success in the majors in his short stint there, for an unproven and underperforming shortstop

by blue bulldog on May 2, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Valid point

Last thing we need now is Owings moving to 2B…

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 2, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's the Royals

They traded for Yuniesky Betancourt last year.

http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)

by Dan Strittmatter on May 2, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Because

KC’s been a model franchise in terms of smart personnel decisions?

ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO KELLY JOHNSON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by DbacksSkins on May 2, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

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