Diamondbacks 3, Padres 6: Bullpen Blows Lead, Needs to be Blown Up
by snakecharmer on Apr 17, 2010 3:13 AM EDT
in Diamondbacks Game Reports
Email
PrintSome problems cannot be resolved without C4, and this may be one of them.
On a night the Diamondbacks fielders put on a clinic on how to be a defensive stud, the bullpen put on a clinic of what not to do - mainly, allowing the leadoff batter(s) on base and giving lots of free passes. The lead Arizona battled to gain was once again lost in the late innings by relievers who clearly aren't playing up to their potential. While this game did have some up sides, it will be difficult to see them through the clouds of steam coming from the starting pitchers' ears.
Gory details, should you really want them, after the jump.
The last time Edwin Jackson took the mound, he received 15 runs of support. He would have no such luck tonight. Jackson played with fire in the first inning, allowing two walks and throwing 24 pitches, but got out of it with no damage. He just about halved that in the second inning, helped along by a fabulous, off-balance double play turned by Stephen Drew and Kelly Johnson to end the inning. All around the defense was truly spectacular. Two double plays from our middle infield, excellent picks at both hot corners, and running grabs in left field. Where last year's defense would have crumbled, this year's shone, and while in the end it didn't make a difference in the win-loss column, it means a lot knowing they have truly improved.
The Diamondbacks' scoring started and ended in the third inning. Conor Jackson singled to lead off the inning and Drew followed that up with a walk. After Justin Upton lined out to center and Mark Reynolds popped straight up to catcher (he was practically back in the dugout by the time it was caught), it looked like leadoff base runners would be stranded again. But Kelly Johnson put a good at-bat on Jon Garland to earn a walk and loade the bases. Garland walked in Chris Young on four straight pitches (they were nowhere close to the zone - meet the new and improved CY, now with more plate discipline!) with the bases loaded to give the Diamondbacks a 1-0 lead. Gerardo Parra followed with a single to right to score two more runs. The Diamondbacks' 2-out run production continues to be stellar, and they ran Garland's pitch count up to nearly 80 after three innings.
Edwin Jackson responded to this 3-0 lead by promptly walking the pitcher Garland. Luckily, a double play followed, and Jackson would keep the Padres from even threatening to score the rest of his time on the mound. Jackson scattered three hits and four walks over his six solid innings of work, and only one baserunner reached third against him. It was a very strong outing from our new #2 starter. Meanwhile, Jon Garland managed to make it through five innings with the only blemish being the 3rd, thanks to some baserunning blunders. Both Conor Jackson and Justin Upton were out at second trying to stretch singles to left field into doubles. Jackson was nearly safe on his, but his momentum carried him off the bag. Upton was caught jogging to first base and couldn't make up the speed to get to second. And there were several balls hit, particularly off the bat of Stephen Drew, that would've been long gone in Chase Field. Then, the San Diego bullpen made quick work of the Diamondbacks hitters - four innings, four relievers, 12 men up, 12 men down. See, Diamondbacks relievers, that's what a bullpen is supposed to do.
The momentum had clearly started to shift to the other dugout. Jackson was pulled after the sixth inning at 109 pitches, and Bob Howry came in for the 7th. A leadoff double came around to score to make it 3-1, but Parra kept it that way with a running grab at the wall in left. The real drama came in the 8th when Aaron Heilman put two men on - The Gnat David Eckstein and The Thorn Adrian Gonzalez - with one out. When Chase Headley popped out to Reynolds at third, it seemed like he might escape unscathed. But Heilman couldn't find the strike zone if it had come up and introduced itself to him. Will Venable walked to load the bases and Kyle Blanks walked to score Eckstein. Scott Hairston then worked a 3-0 count but eventually also popped out to Reynolds, barely in front of the wall. The lead was intact, but not safe.
Juan Gutierrez came in to pitch the 9th inning for Arizona. This was not any sort of slight against Chad Qualls, Qualls had simply thrown 49 pitches in two high-stress innings the previous two days, so it was Juan's turn to spell. But, he too couldn't find the plate, and those leadoff walks will bite you in the butt. With two outs and a runner on third, it was Eckstein who smacked a shot to left field just out of the reach of Parra, and that tied the game at 3-all. Adrian Gonzalez was intentionally walked to face Headley, who promptly deposited Gutierrez's third pitch into the right field bleachers. Those dreading a third straight night of extra-innings baseball probably didn't mean for the game to end in a loss, but there it was... a 3-0 lead gone in three innings to end in a 6-3 loss.
Master of his Domain: Edwin Jackson, +26.2%
Honorable Mention: Gerardo Parra, +18.7%
God-emperor of Suck: Juan Gutierrez, -83.3%
It was an interesting gameday thread tonight. Some lurkers showed their faces - welcome, Dallas! - and our attention seemed to be split a few different ways. Though that's not exactly different for us. Once the 8th inning started though, it was pretty much doomsville. When I took the roll call nearly 200 posts ago, 'Skins led the way, and I joined him in triple digits. All present were: snakecharmer, unnamedDBacksfan, DbacksSkins, kishi, Rockkstarr12, 4 Corners Fan, NASCARbernet, Pyromnc, JoeStock, piratedan7, singaporedbacksfan, Fiona, katers, hotclaws, emilylovesthedbacks, Wailord, Esther Schindler, SaveUsY2J (back from the netherworld), Dallas D'Back Fan, pygalgia, njjohn, Wimb, BattleMoses (oh no, there are two of him!), ZonaBacks10, and Amit.
There were some positives on the defensive side, and it's just one game out of 162. But three blown saves is just painful, and if our bullpen can't get it together ASAP, it's going to resemble 2009, and that will make nobody here very happy.
Steve Gilbert announced on Twitter that it is Esmerling Vasquez being sent to AAA Reno to make room for tomorrow's starter Kris Benson. He'll be opposed by Kevin Correia, off of whom Arizona batters hit three home runs opening week. If this week has been any indication, the starters won't play into the decisions. One can only hope for a large run differential (much like Correia received his last start) and a solid start by Benson to relieve the relievers. Tomorrow's game is at 5:35; be there or be under a rock hiding from all the mess.
78 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
i don't understand our pitchers
this is something that i’ve noticed, that applies largely to the bullpen, and partially to the starting rotation
i don’t know if it’s the mentality of the catcher calling the game, the pitcher pitching, or our pitching coach’s philosophy….but we are timid
case in point…leadoff batter against gutierrez in the ninth is NiCK FREAKIN HUNDLEY….the catcher, who last year had stats of .238/.313/.406
so you get him on an 0-2 count, and then proceed to nibble around the edges, hoping he’ll swing at something out of the zone….except he doesn’t, and it goes from an 0-2 count to a walk.
this is obviously one extreme case, but i feel like i’ve seen both starting pitchers and relievers get ahead 0-2 and 1-2 and yet have failed to put batters away, because they just try to nibble around the strike zone and hope the opponent swings at bad pitches. pitchers have to be aggressive.
i think haren is a prime example of this. his stuff, at least according to what others say, is simply not that filthy when compared to other aces in the league….the lincecums and king felixes. yet, his numbers are still really good, because of how aggressive he is. as a pitcher, you HAVE to challenge batters to hit the ball. it’s really difficult having a huge inning off hits alone.
here’s another thing to consider. hundley as leadoff with noone on base. if the count is 3-2, throwing outside of the zone gives the dbacks an 80% chance that hundley gets on base (not exactly a robust derivation, but his o-swing is 20%). on the other hand, if you simply pound the strike zone, he swings 65% of the time. he makes contact 85% of the time he swings. and he bats .300 when he makes contact. That amounts to under a 20% chance hundley gets on base if you just throw into the strike zone. Obviously it’s an imperfect proof, because his contact rate is probably different based on the count, and based on where in the strike zone the pitch is located.
However, I think it’s good enough to show the moral of the story….when there is no one on base….and you have a crappy batter up with no power….DON’T THROW OUTSIDE THE STRIKE ZONE ON A 3-2 PITCH
maybe it’s just me, but i feel like pitchers don’t realize this. batters do NOT swing outside of the zone as much as we might think they do….even the bad ones like nick hundley. it seems really meaningless to me when you throw outside of the zone against people who have an o-swing of around 20%.
by mfan2010 on Apr 17, 2010 5:13 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
/cues Talking Heads CD
“Same as it ever was…same as it ever was…”
I know that it’s only a few games into the season, but the BSpen problem has been going on for quite some time (’09 Eighth Inning Fever, anyone?) – - sheesh, maybe we should just leave the starter in for a minimum of eight innings, let the pitch count get up to around 150-160.
Vote Quimby!
disgusting
As disgusting as this game was (again), your picture captions never fail to make me laugh. Too bad indeed Parra can’t pitch in the 9th.
Welcome
to the Snakepit!!
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
by DbacksSkins on Apr 17, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
lol thank you
I am not as funny as Azreous but I try. ;)
Things ’Skins has in common with foulpole for 400, please. -- soco
by snakecharmer on Apr 17, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Then, on the other hand,
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
by DbacksSkins on Apr 17, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Here's a couple more.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
by DbacksSkins on Apr 17, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
8 walks by Dbacks pitchers, 5 walks by Padres pitchers (all by Garland)
Of 4 Ks by Dbacks pitchers, only 1 was on a called strike 3.
Of 7 Ks by Padres pitchers, 4 were on a called strike 3.
Coincidence? Or were we getting freaking squeezed all night??
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
by DbacksSkins on Apr 17, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I doubt it
it’s a lot easier to look at the missed balls or strikes on the computer, but given how close many of those “borderline” pitches were it’s not surprising.
Now remember. If the balloon pops, the noise makes the angels cry.
How much
of the game did you see?
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
by DbacksSkins on Apr 17, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
That's
not the point. The point is that it’s easy after the fact an look a computer generated strike zone to find mistakes. Maybe we got squeezed but I doubt it was on purpose.
Now remember. If the balloon pops, the noise makes the angels cry.
Um, you had to see it to believe it
you didn’t see it, so you really can’t comment on it.
It was so blatantly obvious that I call into question the umpire’s competence or integrity, or both.
While the bizarre pitch calling went on throughout the game, it was in the ninth inning that the effects of an amorphous strike zone really came into play.
The game was over when a two out, two strike pitch crossed the plate center cut above the knees. Unfortunately, Hallion didn’t see fit to raise his hand and call the game over – prima facie evidence that he wasn’t going to call a game ending third strike in favor of the visiting team, which gave the home team a real advantage in knowing that they could be more selective on subsequent pitches.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm
commenting on the screenshots that ’Skins has provided above. Stop trying to make this into some big conspiracy of umpiring.
Now remember. If the balloon pops, the noise makes the angels cry.
Oh, we weren't discussing huge
conspiracies. This is just about one little ump, one little cowardly ump failing to raise his right hand when by all things right and true he should have.
Why do you bring ‘conspiracy’ into the conversation? I didn’t. You did.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
"When
I see pitch calling that blatantly obviously bad I wonder about gambling." You may not have said the word ‘conspiracy,’ but you obviously want to more than imply that the umpire unfairly crooked towards the Diamondbacks.
I’m talking about how easy it is to pick apart an umpire’s strikezone after the fact, especially with computers.
You’re talking about this specific “umpire’s competence or integrity, or both.”
I’m talking in general terms.
You’re talking in specific terms.
We’re not having the same conversation at all.
Now remember. If the balloon pops, the noise makes the angels cry.
The reason why I say that you really need to have seen the game
to have this discussion is because I’m not saying that Gameday “proves” the ump was off. I’m saying that Gameday’s own supposedly “objective” opinion agrees with what we saw while watching the game live.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
Well
then I guess this “discussion” is over since we’re not going to talk about the same things.
Now remember. If the balloon pops, the noise makes the angels cry.
If all you're trying to say
is that Gameday proof isn’t “proof” by itself, then I agree, and I’ve mentioned that multiple times.
If what you’re trying to say is that Gameday is irrelevant, then we have a fundamental disagreement.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
I'm
saying Gameday is very relevant. I’m saying that umpires make mistakes. I’m saying that we certainly were at the short end of the stick last night, but not to the point of any conscious effort by the ump.
Now remember. If the balloon pops, the noise makes the angels cry.
That's
the first you’ve admitted straight up that the ump was wrong, as far as I’ve been interpreting, anyway.
I specifically disagreed w/ NASCAR’s claims that it was intentional. So, maybe we’re not actually disagreeing at all.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
The visual evidence
and the facts regarding the outcome, specifically the failure to call an obvious third strike to end the ballgame, do not refute my hypothesis. Its only the question of intentionality or umpire incompetence that remain generally unresolved.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Again
that’s all speculation and opinion. I’m trying to stick to the facts.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
Well, Columbo,
What is fact, what is opinion?
Define the two, and explain whether they are truly disjunctive (mutually exclusive)?
If opinions and facts are mutually exclusive, then one cannot possibly make successful inferences about the nature of the world. This would mean there can be no insights, or explanation. The Viennese Circle would agree with you, but ultimately, their ontological positivism has been rejected because some philosophers have found flaws in their reasoning.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I think
we’re saying pretty much the same thing, the only thing I was attempting to add was a general statement about how much easier it is for us to make the calls, given our technology assistance.
Now remember. If the balloon pops, the noise makes the angels cry.
Just watch the replay.
If you don’t, don’t bother participating.
If you do, and you disagree with us, fine. Explain why we’re wrong.
But chances are you’ll watch and come to similar conclusions.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
So
don’t come here unless you watch a game? Okay.
Now remember. If the balloon pops, the noise makes the angels cry.
by soco on Apr 17, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Did I miss a rule change?
Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Apr 17, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Where do you get these bizarre conclusions?
Just watch the game replay, then comment on the relative merits of the views of the various participants in the discussion who witnessed the event(s).
Its not that difficult.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Given
the nature of many of our discussions, I’m not sure I have the problem. But yes, if I were trying to make specific statements of this particular game (which I am not), then I should go watch the game.
Now remember. If the balloon pops, the noise makes the angels cry.
We weren't picking it apart ex post facto
the game thread will nicely reveal that in real time, people were upset with the balls and strikes.
I AM speaking in specific terms. Maybe the ump had an ‘off night.’ But that doesn’t explain his unwillingness to end the game on a called third strike.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't be so pissed
if it were just that batter — whether that would have ended the game or not. The fact of the matter is that the Padres’ pitchers were consistently getting a bigger K zone.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
Yes, it IS the point.
Those are just some blatantly obvious examples of what we were all seeing with our own eyes while the game was going on. The fact that even Gameday seems to agree is a good argument — Gameday rarely disagrees with the ump’s strike zone, and I still maintain that it’s part of the league’s CBA with the umps’ union.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
That's not my point
not the point. The point is that it’s easy after the fact an look a computer generated strike zone to find mistakes. Maybe we got squeezed but I doubt it was on purpose.not the point.
not the point. The point is that it’s easy after the fact an look a computer generated strike zone to find mistakes. Maybe we got squeezed but I doubt it was on purpose.
not the point. The point is that it’s easy after the fact an look a computer generated strike zone to find mistakes. Maybe we got squeezed but I doubt it was on purpose.
Now remember. If the balloon pops, the noise makes the angels cry.
by soco on Apr 17, 2010 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
See my post above.
See my post above.
See my post above.
We wouldn’t even be having this discussion if it hadn’t come up during the game. It’s not as if I wandered through Gameday after the fact looking for smoking guns, and THEN decided that the ump’s zone was off.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
Nah
the umpire was clearly squeezing the zone. Had the ump called an honest game, the D-Backs win on a called third strike. I forget who the ump was, but here’s where blame falls on the D-backs’ coaches. When you’re getting squeezed, get tossed from the game. This forces the league to review the umpire’s performance, and no ump wants his performance reviewed by the bosses. This forces the ump to improve his calling or face having to explain himself. Nobody pays a dime to watch an umpire call a game.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Tom Hallion
was the ump, and I hope we don’t see him at HP again this year.
AJ was barking at him from the dugout, and late in the game, I cried out for him to get himself tossed, but it didn’t happen.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
by DbacksSkins on Apr 17, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
When I see pitch calling that blatantly obviously bad
I wonder about gambling.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Apparently,
according to Wiki, he has a history of blowing obvious calls.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
...which could be said for a lot of umpires. Probably all of them.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
Refusing to call a third strike to end a game
when it doesn’t favor the home team is prima facie evidence of calling a game corruptly. There are plenty of umpires who refuse to call that final strike, but it’s an exceptionally bad practice.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Prima facie evidence?
Since when? The burden is on the accuser.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
Some umpires (here's the conspiracy component)
don’t like to call a third strike against a home team to end a game. There are a variety of reasons for it, some better than others, but the bottom line is a desire to protect the fan base at home, and make it easier to leave the ballpark without angry fans waiting at the exits.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Perhaps,
but again, this is entirely opinion-based.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
Where's the line between fact and opinion?
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Somewhere
between that last post and “Hallion was squeezing us”.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
Is "Hallion was squeezing us" fact or opinion?
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
I don’t really think THAT’S fair.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
Oh, I'm sorry
I keep forgetting that life is fair.
Forget circumstantial evidence to the contrary because professional referees are always above any outside influence or other kinds of shenanigans.
David Stern said so!
So, the alternative is the umpire is flat out incompetent, rather than corrupt. I don’t see how either alternative is necessarily exculpatory.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Circumstantial evidence is just that: circumstantial.
I’d lean towards incompetent before corrupt. Hallion’s a young ump.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
He's not that young.
He’s been around umpiring in the National League since 1985.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I stand corrected.
Candy and Sutton called him “a young ump” last night.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
He's got a rather controversial employment history
but that’s it. I gotta’ go, got work to do, et cetera.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
He was among the umpires who lost their jobs after resigning as part of a failed union bargaining strategy in 1999, but his rehiring was agreed to in December 2004 in a settlement with Major League Baseball.
"We defy augury" -- Hamlet
by Jim McLennan on Apr 17, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks Jim,
In other words, he’s not beyond fanciful ‘shenanigans’ to achieve some goal.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think
Jim was implying that at all.
That’s like saying that since someone made a mistake on their taxes they must have also broken into their neighbor’s house and stolen stuff.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
Your example doesn't work
its sounds clever, but it simply doesn’t apply.
What you are doing is this:
B —>D
B does not imply D, period.
What I did was this:
If A—>C
A
Therefore C.
Now, you can argue whether C follows from A, but logically, there can’t be a “C” without an A.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm so mad
about the game last night, thought they had it. way to go, bullpen
"Twin-headed infinite swirling vortex of grotesque suckitude known as Tony Clark and Eric Byrnes"
Good stuff:
- Kelly Johnson was back, and doesn’t seem any worse for wear.
- Our hitters’ patience looked good, even if they got screwed on a lot of borderline pitches. Garland seemed to expect CY to strike out w/ the bases loaded on 3 pitches out of the zone, but instead, he drew a walk, for his 15th RBI of the year.
- Parra was clutch w/ 2 outs.
- The defense was great, and KJ’s “mediocre” defense hasn’t shown up yet. Even CoJack looked decent playing out of position (more or less) at 1B.
- E-Jack really settled down after the first inning, and it was his best outing so far. He looked good, getting a LOT of groundball outs. The Padres didn’t even get a runner past 1B from the 2nd until the 7th.
- Despite a slow start, Jim’s bday, and many of our regulars out watching Team Ice Dancing, we still broke 1k comments again.
Bad stuff:
- TOM HALLION #&$%!!!!!!
- LaClutch is still out.
- Upton got gunned down at 2B, after not running 100% on a ball he figured would be foul or a groundout turned into an error.
- Bullpen still sucks, although I have to think that a lot of it is bad luck so far. Howry’s XBH% of 23.5%, Qualls’ XBH% of 13.5% are probably unsustainably high. BABIPs of .370 for Qualls, .355 for Vasquez, .456 for Rosales, and .393 for Boyer are all unsustainably high as well — not that any of them pitched last night. However, with the new guys, Norberto’s .179, Heilman’s .188, and Howry’s .195 are all too low, and returning member Gutierrez’s .197 should also regress.
- The Dbacks could only manage 3 runs.
- Reynolds is still on one of his slow streaks to start the season.
- CoJack whacked a single and made 2B around Eckstein’s 1st effort to tag him, but overslid and was caught off the bag.
- We lost. Aaaand we’re back at .500 on the season. We should be 6-4. (Assuming we lose the 1st EI game vs. the Dodgers, the 2nd EI game vs. the Dodgers doesn’t go to EI, and we win last night) Our Pythag W/L puts us at 6-4.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
Good review.
If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base. ~Dave Barry
by 4 Corners Fan on Apr 17, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Empirical Question
Okay, so there’s been a heated discussion regarding last night’s clearly botched umpiring performance.
We probably can’t get inside the umpire’s head to understand his thought processes last night, although logic can be a very helpful tool in elucidating motivations and outcomes.
But there are issues that can be couched in empirical terms.
Here’s one: can we detect whether there is a bias in major league umpiring regarding called third strikes to end ballgames favoring home teams.
The frequency of umpires calling third strikes to end ballgames is measurable, and something that can be evaluated statistically. I think it could be evaluated historically. I also think an accurate null hypothesis can be generated, such as ‘no difference between the frequency of called third strikes for home and visiting teams,’ or some other fair measure.
What say you, sabermetricians?
Stay Calm and Carry On.
How about this?
What is your conclusion?
Do your premises support that conclusion.
Just be careful not to commit a fallacy of weak induction: appeal to ignorance-nobody has proved ‘x’ is true, therefore ‘x’ is false.
Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Apr 17, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
its an empirical question
any conclusion would follow after the null hypothesis is confirmed or rejected. If confirmed, then the conclusion would be that there is no difference between called third strikes for home versus away teams.
If the null hypothesis is rejected, then there would be a difference, which would be the next empirical question, "is there a bias in called third strikes favoring the home team or the away team in major league baseball?"
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Good question
In 2009, there were 758 strikeouts that ended a game. 355 were by the visiting-team pitcher, 403 by a visiting one, about 13.5% more. Seems to suggest some evidence for your theory: that level of distribution by chance has only about a 4.4% probability
However, more of ALL strikeouts in 2009 were by the home-team: 17.44% of PAs pitched by visitors ended in a K, compared to 18.46% at home. So you’d expect 6% more game-ending strikeouts to be by the home-team, and the disparity mentioned above would become less significant as a result.
There is still something of a gap. Is it because umpires unconsciously favor the home side? Or because pitchers play better at home? Especially in the ninth, with the home-crowd on its feet and roaring them on, I can certainly see how the latter could be the case.
"We defy augury" -- Hamlet
by Jim McLennan on Apr 17, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
To further winnow it down
are there stats regarding whether a final strike was called or swinging?
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Sheesh. :-)
After fiddling with a spreadsheet…
- Home: 91 looking (22.6%), 312 swinging
- Road: 69 looking (19.4%), 286 swinging
Again, seems like some, albeit weak, evidence for the theory. Unfortunately, I don’t have numbers for K overall looking percentage at home and on the road, to see how they compare.
"We defy augury" -- Hamlet
by Jim McLennan on Apr 17, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
That there is some spread sheet you have.
I recommend you apply for that D’Backs job that was advertised earlier in the week.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
He would
have to give up The Snakepit if he did, unfortunately.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
The eternal question: whether to remain a pure amateur
or turn pro. . .
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, I think he would only have to give up the Snakepit
were he hired.
There has to be a financial tipping point where he would say it would be more worthwhile to work for ’Backs than babysit us here.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep
But t’aint all about the money…
Fiddling with stats you want to fiddle with, is fun. Fiddling with stats someone else tells you to fiddle with, because you have to pay the mortgage… Not so much.
"We defy augury" -- Hamlet
by Jim McLennan on Apr 17, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
But back to the topic at hand
I would have expected numbers to be a bit stronger than they appear to be. But there are other more subjective factors, including the tendency for batters to adjust their own strike zones to compensate for umpire’s specific game strike zones, and whether batters are forced to swing at pitches they ordinarily wouldn’t given the circumstance.
Gosh baseball can be complicated. It would be just so much easier to pass to Fitzgerald.
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
its an empirical question
any conclusion would follow after the null hypothesis is confirmed or rejected. If confirmed, then the conclusion would be that there is no difference between called third strikes for home versus away teams.
If the null hypothesis is rejected, then there would be a difference, which would be the next empirical question, “is there a bias in called third strikes favoring the home team or the away team in major league baseball?”
Stay Calm and Carry On.
Welcome
to the Snakepit!!
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
Its a friendly place
if you don’t mind all the rattles. . .
Stay Calm and Carry On.
by NASCARbernet on Apr 17, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
