How many wins for the 2010 Diamondbacks?
by Jim McLennan on Mar 30, 2010 11:35 AM EDT
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PrintAfter all the various projections, for the individual sections and players, we come to the only number that really matters for the 2010 team - how many wins? Personally, it feels almost impossible to project with any confidence, not least because of the huge question-mark over if/when Brandon Webb will return. Vegas has set the over-under for the team at 82.5 wins, so I've used 82 as the mid-point for the poll. However, I think this team has a larger margin of variation than almost any other in the league. I wouldn't be surprised by almost any number from 70-90, by the time we complete the regular season.
After the jump, I'll put my money where my mouth is and see what I can come up with as a number. Doing this as a promoted Fanpost, because I think this discussion will run longer than it would otherwise last on the front page.
I'll start by throwing out some other numbers, and it quickly becomes clear that the projections reflect the uncertainty over Arizona.
- Baseball Prospectus has us at 83 wins,
- CAIRO gives Arizona 81.5 victories this season,
- Marcel agrees: 81.5 wins for the D-backs
- CHONE projects 81 victories,
- Fangraphs.com's Fan Projections expects 87 wins
- Xei's Dodger Sims site calls it at 82.7 in the desert
The Marcel numbers are perhaps the most interesting, since they also give a chart that shows the probability of various numbers of wins for Arizona and the other teams in the NL West. Here's the numbers on that.
| Wins | ARI | COL |
LAD |
SDP |
SFG |
| <=65 | 0.5% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
5.2% |
0.5% |
| 66-70 | 3.4% |
2.2% |
0.6% |
14.7% |
3.2% |
| 71-75 | 13.0% |
9.1% |
4.6% |
28.3% |
12.4% |
| 76-80 | 26.6% |
23.4% |
14.7% |
29.5% |
26.0% |
| 81-85 | 30.2% |
30.1% |
28.8% |
16.0% |
30.6% |
| 86-90 | 18.5% |
23.2% |
29.0% |
5.5% |
19.4% |
| 91-95 | 6.6% |
9.3% |
16.7% |
0.8% |
6.5% |
| 96-100 | 1.2% |
2.3% |
4.7% |
0.1% |
1.4% |
| 101-105 | 0.1% |
0.2% |
0.9% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
| 106+ | 0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
My, almost entirely unscientific projection starts from the Pythag number of last season, based on the number of runs scored and allowed. That had us at 75-87 for the year. From there, I apply various adjustments to the wins total, based on the changes made by the team over the winter. For instance, the team's first-basemen last year combined to be -1.3 WAR over the season. But Adam LaRoche is projected to have a value of +1.9 WAR in 2010, so we will be 3.2 games better off with him. There is some fudging of numbers necessary, because of uncertainties like playing-time, but I tend to assume a consistent line-up: injuries are largely discounted here.
The net result is +5 wins from the offense (the additions from first and left-field outweighing an expected drop-off at second), +1 from the starting pitching, and +1 from the bullpen, giving a total of 82 wins as my projection for the Diamondbacks. The rotation is, of course, the big uncertainty. Last year, after Haren, we had Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Max Scherzer and a variety of sub-replacement level fill-ins, now we've got Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, an uncertain amount of Brandon Webb and...who knows? It's possible they could gel into a meaningful whole; it's equally possible (probably, more so) they could implode. The improvement is mostly off 20 or so solid starts by Webb, and the back of the rotation being poor, rather than abysmal as in 2009.
The bullpen is similarly re-bored, but I think should be primed for a bit more stability. Aaron Heilman and Bob Howry have not exactly shone this spring, but they are veterans, and spring training for them is a little different from the likes of Jordan Norberto, who have to impress. Between them and Juan Gutierrez, we should be able to avoid the volume of eighth-inning meltdowns, which cost the team heavily in 2009. I do have more confidence in the depth of the pen, with decent back-end guys like Leo Rosales and Blaine Boyer, who can eat innings if needed.
The team has significant upside, but it's probably going to take a number of things to break Arizona's way for us to compete for the title. Webb to get back to full health would be top of the list, but returns to form for Conor Jackson and Kelly Johnson are also important: Chris Young ceasing the suck would also be really helpful. In the rotation, Kennedy needs to show he is a decent #4, and if one of the back-end guys like Lopez or Kris Benson can show even mediocrity, that would be helpful. Significantly-improved offense, credible starting pitching and a flame-retardant bullpen are not impossible to imagine on their own from this roster, but odds are against all of them dropping into place.
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I would rather
be spectacularly wrong in a good way and I was way too optimistic last season, so… I think we will be better than last season, but struggle to get to 80 wins.
76 wins.
Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Mar 30, 2010 11:39 AM EDT reply actions
162 wins
baby!
All targets neutralized. Program completed. By your command.
by soco on Mar 30, 2010 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Just as long as we're better than last season......please
"Yeah I could have been king, but maybe I already am king. Hail to the king baby." Ash from Army of Darkness
Yeah
TVs are expensive.
Steam Rollin' Cub's fans like an 18 wheeler with a drunk driver driving. There's no survivin'.
LOL, exactly
I’m surprised i didn’t bash in a single TV after the frustrations of last year.
"Yeah I could have been king, but maybe I already am king. Hail to the king baby." Ash from Army of Darkness
Good discussion
BUT if 82 wins depends on:
“20 or so solid starts by Webb… Significantly-improved offense, credible starting pitching and a flame-retardant bullpen”
Then I’m with the pessimists: 70 wins looks good.
Nah
Competing depends on those factors. 82 wins won’t compete for much this year – we’d need to be nearing ninety for that.
"We defy augury" -- Hamlet
by Jim McLennan on Mar 30, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
90
PLUS.
Steam Rollin' Cub's fans like an 18 wheeler with a drunk driver driving. There's no survivin'.
75 Wins
I don’t believe anything Brandon Webb says after last year, and without him I think we are a .500 ballclub, plus we will start trading away players when it is apparent we are out of it in August.
I hope I’m about 20 wins too low.
I agree. I think hes full of shit.
He’s probably Butthurt because they wouldnt insure his arm so he doesen’t want to pitch for us.
Not buying that at all
Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Mar 30, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
How long does it take to recover from an injury like that.
It just seems to me like he is deliberately delaying his revovery. I beleive there was one time where he was complaining about how it hurt and his physical therapist told him nothing was wrong. Its just something seems wrong with how long this whole thing is taking. I dont know a whole lot about this kinda stuff so maybe im reading too much into it.
I'm really not sure
on recovery, but it just seems like this scenario is so out of character for Webb, at least the image I have of him .
I fully understand the players are just as human as us and we really don’t know what is going on in his mind. I just expect more than that from one of our own.
Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Mar 30, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe
But this would be some major self-sabotage here. Next season, he’s on the free agent market, and if he spends the better part of the season not showing his arm is better, his value next year is going to nosedive.
"Now we can just call you Kishi Laptop, Esquire."
This
and just because you can’t see anything on a scan doesn’t mean whatever body part doesn’t hurt
What's your name? Sandwich. What's your first name? TUNA.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Mar 30, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
U should be
a disability lawyer.
Steam Rollin' Cub's fans like an 18 wheeler with a drunk driver driving. There's no survivin'.
Yeeaahhhh.....
I could see Emily chasing ambulance in the near future. ;)
we're like a borg ship; resistance is futile-- soco via twitter.
lol
What's your name? Sandwich. What's your first name? TUNA.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Mar 31, 2010 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I dont
think webb has been right since he was hit with a line drive at the end of the 08(?) season.
Steam Rollin' Cub's fans like an 18 wheeler with a drunk driver driving. There's no survivin'.
good point
Anyone who attempts to generate random numbers by deterministic means is, of course, living in a state of sin.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Mar 30, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
90
is conceivable if our rotation pans out. the only way this seems possible is if 1) webb comes back healthy relatively early, 2) we trade for another pitcher comparable to edwin jackson, or 3) ian kennedy is suddenly putting up cy young vote numbers
barring that….i feel like our club is probably a .500 team…..80-82 wins if the rotation doesn’t pan out
I am predicting 92 wins because I think that our offense is going to be a huge improvement. I think we our going to lead the NL in home runs. Also our bullpen is going to be much better with Howry and our future close Gutierrez. Also our defense was terrible last year so that should improve .
God i hope you're right
I can see our bats being better this year, and i think just how much better will determine where the Dbacks end up in the end. We’ll see though, there’s just too many “what if’s now”
"Yeah I could have been king, but maybe I already am king. Hail to the king baby." Ash from Army of Darkness
That sounds like a good guess to me
"Yeah I could have been king, but maybe I already am king. Hail to the king baby." Ash from Army of Darkness
The dbacks have the talent to be a good team
Here’s what i think and hope will happen this season in one equation: (A healthy Webb(even if he’s coming back in May)Healthy Conor JacksonRebound Chris Young+Rebound Stephen Drew+Rebound Kelly Johnson+Adam La Roche) – (Howry + Hielman+rotational issues) = probably about 10 or 15 wins more than last season.
I think our offense will be fine, especially in the second half. We have three guys who so far in their career have had monster second halfs: Adam La Roche, Stephen Drew, and Chris Young.
I’d bet money we’re going to see a monster year from Justin Upton. I think you can guarantee that he’ll be better than last season, but the real question is: By how much? I’d bet it’s a big improvement.
Mark Reynolds will probably have a decline in numbers. Or he could continue to defy the experts and get better. I’m hoping for the latter
Now what i do think will suck on the team is the bullpen, because of Howry and Hielman. I don’t trust either, and the numbers will back it up. If they suck, and we relegate them to lesser roles, than I’m fine. Instead, what will happen is they will stick around and continue to see playing time, even if they’re sucking up.
The other thing that might suck is the rotation. Will Webb be effective when he gets comes back? Who’s the fourth starter going into the season? What about the fifth starter? Lopez is nothing to get excited about, and Mulvey and Buckner have done nothing this spring to get excited about.
I’m thinking this team is an 85 win team, with 90 wins as the upper limit. If everything goes right and I mean the stars align and all the above happen , miraculously the fourth, fifth starters, hielman and howry DON’T suck, and we outplay our pythag by a 5 or 6 games, then I think we could have a 90+ win season. We don’t have a bad team, we do have some issues, but I think the dbacks will hopefully have luck on their side this season.
The Dbacks have the talent to be a good team, but will they once again actually play as good as their talent suggest they should be?
by C. Wesley Baier on Mar 30, 2010 6:51 PM EDT reply actions
What i meant to say in the last sentence...
Will they play for once at the level their talent suggests they should be at?
by C. Wesley Baier on Mar 30, 2010 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Offense
has all the weapons to win games…all Upton fans have cause to be excited, he’s a potential all-star in my opinion. Good additions in the line-up. I’m not afraid of the offense producing. That said, a 10-9 loss is still a loss. I’ve got no confidence in the pitching whatsoever. No off-season additions for the better, an “ace” (webb) who can’t/won’t play..defacto #1 and #2 (haren & jackson) good for 30(?) wins between them…and pure disaster in the #4 and after…..not strong in the bullpen. Good lord are we gonna give up some runs this year. Sorry offense, it’ll be a frustrating road to 70something wins.
Outlook for 2010 --not good
The Dbacks will finish no better than fourth in the division. and they are years away from improving on that number. The Dodgers, Rockies and Giants are all very good teams,and I just do no see Az beating any of them when the fat lady sings —Like last season, the Dbacks and the Padres will be fighting to stay off the bottom, and Az should finish above San Diego..No matter how many silver linings Daren Sutton can come up with day after day, this team just is not put together to compete..And Josh Byrnes is fully responsible for this, not Hinch or the coaches-this is all Josh Byrnes…I see Chad Tracy made the roster for the Cubs, that is a huge gain for Chicago and a loss for Arizona—-so not you have Quienten on the Obama side of town and Tracy with the northsiders…good for Chad., he is a class guy..
I'd love to have Chad Tracy on this team.
Just not at the $7 million option it would’ve taken to bring him back. I have no problems with that whatsoever.
Yeah...
Would have been nice to keep Chad but $7 mil was too much to ask
"AUGIE AUGIE AUGIE...OY OY OY!"
by Rockkstarr12 on Mar 30, 2010 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Chad Tracy
was definitely a nice guy but there was no place for him on this team, especially with his price tag had the team accepted his option. He has no knees left, which makes him a liability in the field, and you’re not going to pay a guy $7 mil to be a pinch hitter on this team. It would have nearly been a traveshamockery as the Flying Nun sitting on the bench as the 4th outfielder for a cool $11 mil this year had we kept him as well. Ok, not really.
Badgers! Badgers! We don't need no stinkin badgers!
Welcome
to the Snakepit!!
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
Juliefm
Is a friend of mine :) She and I met BattleMoses and UnnamedDbacksfan at the last DBacks/Cubs exhibition game ;)
"AUGIE AUGIE AUGIE...OY OY OY!"
I like Tracy too....
but his OPS+ in 2008 and 2009 was 82 and 76 respectively.
So I’m not really sure why you’re complaining. Tracy had a good 2005 and that’s it.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
by DbacksSkins on Mar 31, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
According to SI and others...
The Rockies are predicted to take the NL West. I can see this happening with the strong core of talent Jim Tracy has to work with, plus the Rockies pitching staff is looking more strong and solid than ever. All we can do is see what does happen.
"AUGIE AUGIE AUGIE...OY OY OY!"
I tend to disagree
with all the publications, at least for the NL West. I think LA takes a step back this year. I see SF and COL vying for the division title with AZ in 4th and SD last. I predict 79 wins for AZ. I’m a fan of the team but there are way too many unknowns or what ifs to feel comfortable about this team. Offense looks improved. Bully is old, otherwise, a gas can besides the closer. Starting pitching is young and unproven at best after Haren and Jackson and who knows what Webb will be able to give the team this year. I’m hoping for improvement in the 85-88 win range but only time will tell. The team definitely has to get off to a great start offensively, otherwise the team’s collective psyche will go into the tank like last year.
Badgers! Badgers! We don't need no stinkin badgers!
I've already
gone on the record on Facebook in saying that I think we bounce back big this year — I think Hinch gets a bit lucky in his first full season, a la 2007; I think CY finally has an OPS+ over 100 and Droo bounces back to 2008 form, C.Jackson remains an OBP machine, Johnson and LaRoche absolutely LOVE hitting in Chase, Upton breaks out, Reynolds doesn’t regress too badly, and both E.Jackson and Kennedy adjust well to playing in the NL. The bullpen does just well enough to make us forget about last year’s ’pen.
This is predicated on Webby returning by mid-May at the latest, and returning to being a 3.50 ERA pitcher or better, but….
Dbacks win 88 games, take the Wild Card.
Rockies win 94 and the division.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
Hmmm....
do you ever bet the ponies?
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
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