AZ SnakePit "Community" Projections, Part Four: Bullpen
by Jim McLennan on Mar 23, 2010 8:45 PM EDT
in Diamondbacks Features
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PrintLast year, the team's bullpen was overall mediocre, but seemed to struggle most when the team needed them most. I trust I need not re-hash the horrors which were the eighth inning - our pitchers allowed 25% more runs there, than the nearest challengers in the National League. In 2010, we'll see quite a number of replacements, with only Chad Qualls and Juan Gutierrez returning from the 2009 Opening Day roster.
The possible contenders for the remaining slots include faces old (Bob Howry, aged 36), new (Jordan Norberto, not even on the radar before spring training), borrowed (Zach Kroenke, lifted from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft) and blue (Aaron Heilman, a Cub last season). After the jump, we'll take a look, in descending order of likely roster worthiness, at the ten men most likely to be part of the Diamondbacks relief corps this season. What do the projection systems have to say about their performance? And do I agree or not? Though given the number of people to be covered, these will likely be a little less in-depth than previous entries!
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Gutierrez was one of the best surprises of 2009, and it's surprising to me that four of the five systems do not expect him to repeat that performance, with an average increase of 0.39 in his ERA projected for 2010. Can only presume this is a lack of data: at age 26, it's not as if Gutierrez is exactly over the hill.
AZ SnakePit: 4.10 ERA, 1,40 WHIP
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In an off-season of generally good signings, Howry stood out as a risky pick. He'll be 37 in August, and the odds of him repeating last year's 129+ ERA seem slim, given that's better than his career ERA+. Remember Tom Gordon last season? While Howry is certainly not quite in the same league as far as risk (see above), if he were to fall apart in 2010, I wouldn't be surprised.
AZ SnakePit: 4.60 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
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Heilman is the poster child for Arizona's relief arm acquisition policy - no "pure" reliever pitched more innings from 2006-09, and we also have the #6 (Qualls) and #7 (Howry) on the list - plus, until late last season, the #2 (Jon Rauch). I'm not expecting too much from him, but after last year, eighth-inning mediocrity would count as a welcome improvement.
AZ SnakePit: 4.35 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
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Exploding onto the Diamondbacks in 2009 like a crate of dodgy Chinese fireworks, Zavada would likely be beloved of Arizona fans regardless of his performance - as long as the facial hair remains intact. Fortunately, there's no real reason to worry about his performance, even if it a few less walks would be helpful. Probably a bit much to expect his first earned run not to be until July.
AZ SnakePit: 3.80 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
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Boyer proved a very good waiver-wire pick up for the Diamondbacks last season. Expecting a sub-three ERA for us again is optimistic, and he also didn't allow a home-run in 37 innings for Arizona, which won't last forever. However, he is only 28, and should be serviceable as a mop-up man and long relief.
AZ SnakePit: 4.40 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
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Rosales's position on the roster is fragile - he doesn't have any options remaining, but he may be sacrificed to make way for a LOOGY. Odds are he won't make his way through waivers, and while a 4.76 ERA would not normally be much to pine about, the projections are unanimous for improvement in 2010, presumably based off his great WHIP. However, in 2009, Rosales had a .255 BABIP, which seems unsustainably low to me. I'm unconvinced.
AZ SnakePit: 4.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
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Vasquez may end up in Reno, regardless of performance, simply because he's one of the few bullpen candidates who can be sent to Triple-A. Walked almost five per nine IP in the majors, in line with his minor numbers (4.7 BB/9 IP), which is too much to be successful. Unless needed, I'd be inclined to put him back in the minors, until he has shown better control.
AZ SnakePit: 4.90 ERA, 1.55 WHIP
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Came pretty much out of nowhere, as you can imagine from the lack of projections above. Allowing one hit in 6.2 spring innings has certainly opened eyes, but as we saw yesterday, control can still be an issue (five walks and a hit batter over that time). Doubt he'll be with the team on Opening Day, but wouldn't be surprised to see him at some point this year.
AZ SnakePit: 5.50 ERA, 1.70 WHIP
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As a Rule 5 pick, he has to be kept on the roster, but I believe, as a two-time pick, he can opt to become a free-agent rather than be sent back to the Yankees. I think we'd like to hang onto him, but as we're in "win now" mode, perhaps not at the cost of a better pitcher. It might not surprise me if we work out some kind of deal, whereby he becomes a free-agent, then re-signs here and gets a 40-man spot instead. We can then see him again in 2011.
AZ SnakePit: 5.70 ERA, 1.75 WHIP
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Whoa....
no votes for Aaron??
Brian Custer must still be at work. Or whatever he does when he’s not ranting about Heilman.
I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".
i voted for heilman
to get the most innings in relief; even though i believe he would be better utilized as a 5th starter. and, since ST is basically over and heilman did not participate in any meaningful competition for the role, it is a done deal…
I also voted for Heilman
because someone is going to need to pitch the 5th, 6th, and 7th innings after one of our shaky starters start. And well, it seems like that will add up. :)
Innings Are Fine
But I’m more interested in ‘effective appearances", for which I don’t know a statistic.
An ‘effective appearance’ is one where you keep a competitive game, well, competitive, and a lead a lead. Blowouts (for either side) don’t count, and a “hold” or a “save” only partially count. It’s about keeping your team in the game.
Which is why I like Vasquez. Jim’s point on being able to send him down is valid, but we’ll see him this season. I also like Howry for the same reasons. With the Giants last year, he was effective most outings (although his bad outings were really bad), and I see no reason to doubt that he’ll do the same here.
And Juan Guetierriz is rock solid.
The bullpen should be better than last year, but they’ll still cause plenty of chances for screaming obscenities.
Key to the game: Score More
I picked innings
Because ERA would be too “easy” – Qualls by a mile, I imagine. For relievers, innings tends to go towards “effective appearances” because if you aren’t effective, you’re reduced to mop-up work. It’d be nice to have some decent measure of relief performance – things like ERA can be affected by inherited runners, etc. which are outside a pitcher’s control. I think some of the measures like xFIP are probably getting there. Hmm… Research beckons…
"We defy augury" -- Hamlet
by Jim McLennan on Mar 23, 2010 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
actually
i think i’d probably like to see some stat about inherited runner allowed to score…
i guess maybe LOB% contributes to this, though that could be skewed somehow by stranding baserunners you allowed yourself on the paths
and i checked fangraphs, which had zavada at a 75% or so LOB% and qualls at a 70%…though off experience i feel like qualls let fewer inherited runners score….though that could be a bias. i seem to remember though that zavada often let inherited runners score, but then clamped down, which contributed to the fact that he had a huge streak of zero ERA but also a high WHIP
Well...
This is the biggest crapshoot of them all. Fortunately, I’m good at…shooting…crap.
But not so good that I’m going through to Norberto.
Chad Qualls
3.31 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
Juan Gutierrez
3.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Bob Howry
4.20 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
Aaron Heilman
4.66 ERA, 1.64 WHIP
Clay Zavada
4.28 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
Blaine Boyer
4.42 ERA, 1.50 WHIP
Leo Rosales
4.87 ERA, 1.61 WHIP
Esmerling Vasquez
5.03 ERA, 1.70 WHIP
Don't forget Leyson Septimo!!
Our 100mph golden arm boy!!
by Dbacks fan in Taiwan on Mar 24, 2010 11:58 AM EDT reply actions
This is an improvement?
Those are some pretty scary WHIPS being projected for our key bullpen guys. I am still disappointed that the pen was not a higher priority this off-season.
No stat but ERA
For a mid-reliever, you’re right: there is no stat to measure their “effective performance” or lack thereof, notwithstanding the win/loss, which goes at the discretion of the scorekeeper. I like the suggestion of a “hold” statistic, which is essentially the same as a save (only the game isn’t over when the pitching stops).
Closest stat is arguably ERA?
In that case Zavada SHOULD work the most relief, based on his 09 ERA, or maybe split innings with Howry. That scares me to have to admit.
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