Who should be the LOOGY? Kroenke or Norberto?

by C. Wesley Baier on Mar 22, 2010 6:34 PM EDT

Rule 5 draftee Zach Kroenke was expected to make the team out of spring training as the LOOGY, but he has an ERA over 8 this spring. Jordan Norberto on the other hand, has been fantastic outside of today's game, in which he gave up his first run of the spring on 3 walks and hit. His ERA after today's outing 1.35. Both are left handed. So if you base your decision on the small sample size of less than 10 IP, you would probably give the bullpen spot to Norberto.

I think it'd be smart to look at each player's minor league career before making a decision on such a small sample.

Kroenke has had a pretty solid minor league career so far, with a 3.30 ERA over 5 season, and a lot of success in the last year and half at AAA level Scranton-WB with an ERA of 1.80 in 10 IP in 2008 and an ERA of 1.99 in 72.1 IP in 2009.

Norberto has a career 4.53 Era in 4 minor league seasons/ 2/3 of his 2009 season was excellent, as he had a 1.61 ERA in 44.2 IP Hi-A Visalia. He struggled upon being promoted to AA Mobile with a 7.99 ERA in 23.2 innings pitched.

So based on minor league performance the last two years, there's much more of an argument to be made for Kroenke making the team.

So the question arrises, who should make the team? Kroenke or Norberto?

Poll

Who should make the team?

Zach Kroenke

15 votes

Jordan Norberto

5 votes

Neither should make the team.

7 votes

Both, but X player shouldn't. (explain in comments.)

0 votes

27 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Well

The odd thing is here is that the answer will likely change mid-season. You just don’t put guys on your major-league roster who had ERA’s approaching 8 in AA, regardless of sample size, BABIP screwing-over, etc. So Kroenke will be that guy mainly by default to start the season, because we do need one or the other. But, I fully expect Norberto to be good in AA, and I also fully expect Kroenke to be fully mediocre in the major leagues this year (and by “fully expect,” I mean “tentatively predict”). So, at mid-season, since Kroenke’s ceiling is so low and Norberto’s is so high (he actually has the stuff to maybe be more than a LOOGY at some point), I would think that Norberto will get the call at some point in the season.

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 22, 2010 8:14 PM EDT reply actions

Kroenke.

Give him the spot coming out of ST, simply because otherwise we lose him.

If he’s genuinely not effective, we can always promote Norberto later and sell Kroenke back to the Yanks..

I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".

by DbacksSkins on Mar 23, 2010 12:08 AM EDT reply actions

Actually

He has the option to become a FA without us getting Yankees money. Because it’s his second time being picked. But nonetheless, the point stands.

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 23, 2010 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Kroenke

Kroenke is much more ready to pitch in the majors. He’s had a full year at AAA, with decent success, while Norberto has only succeeded at the High-A level. But Kroenke isn’t really a LOOGY – he’s had almost equal success against both RH and LH batters.

by Amit on Mar 23, 2010 2:21 AM EDT reply actions

The question is also

If we opt to keep either, who do we leave off the roster? We have Qualls, Heilman, Howry, Gutierrez, Rosales, Boyer, Zavada – all but Zavada are out of options, and that would be your typical seven-man bullpen. And then there’s Esmerling Vasquez too. We can probably carry eight for a bit, given the schedule, but that is only postponing the problem.

"We defy augury" -- Hamlet

by Jim McLennan on Mar 23, 2010 12:32 PM EDT reply actions

I'm afraid

that if I say Heilman, an air strike will be called down upon me….

I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".

by DbacksSkins on Mar 23, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Think of if we hadn't made that deal.

We wouldn’t be talking about any of this. Because it would be Maine for LOOGY (something he can probably do with his arm angle) and no Heilman, and that’s seven and that’s perfect. And Heilman has looked as effective as a bloated, bipedal hippo trying to pitch out there in ST. That wasn’t supposed to make sense. I just think hippos are funny, and you should too.

Oh yeah, we’d have $2M extra also.

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 23, 2010 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Imagine if we'd made the deal correctly...

and waited one week for Heiman to be put on waivers; then we’d have both Heilman and Maine.

by Counsellmember on Mar 24, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

He was going to get traded

Somewhere. Average-to-above-average veteran relievers are still valued some.

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 25, 2010 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point.

I hadn’t considered that.

I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".

by DbacksSkins on Mar 26, 2010 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions

And it's not like

We expected to get a miracle-gift (or so it seemed at the time, and so we hope it stays) Bob Howry for $3M… Prior to that the Heilman deal made sense, and it would still make sense if we’d spent that $3M on a #5 starter (or a fringe one, which, at this point, would be the #5 starter).

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 26, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Do not agree

Both Fangraphs http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cubs-get-something-for-heilman
and MLBTraderumors http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/dbacks-acquire-aaron-heilman.html
speculated Heilman was going to be non-tendered. Was he that much of a steal that AZ had to reach to get him? Given his spring numbers, evidently not.

by Counsellmember on Mar 26, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I guess I forgot that they're each entities of the Pope

And hence infallible. Have some respect for the thought processes of Josh Byrnes and the FO. We don’t make this trade if Heilman is going to be non-tendered. Someone else must have wanted him.

Or we may have been concerned he’d go elsewhere if he was non-tendered, given his desire to start and our desire to keep him very very far from the rotation. If KC is trying Kyle Farnsworth in the rotation, I’d suspect they’d be willing to give anybody a shot. If we specifically wanted Heilman (because of a potential proclivity for getting left-handed hitters out), this may have been our only avenue to get him.

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 26, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

As for the articles

The FanGraphs one provides some statistical backing for Heilman (HR/FB ratio uncharacteristically high the last two years, generally effective) and only argues against the deal given the team’s “win curve,” which likely has changed since the signing.

The other one doesn’t really say anything… so yeah.

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 26, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

What was your point again?

My comment was only that they “speculated” he would be non-tendered. I made no assertion that either site said differently.

However, it is my own opinion that Heilman was not so under valued a pitcher as to warrent giving up money and prospects (one of which you admit would be of benefit to us now) to ensure he didnt hit the free agent market.

I can’t quite figure out if you are pro-Heilman or anti-Heilman. In one post you say “imagine if we hadn’t made that deal…looked as effective as a bloated, bipedal hippo”, while two comments later you talk of him as an “above -average veteran reliever”.

by Counsellmember on Mar 26, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Ok, I'll admit it here...

I’m being confusing. I’ll try to clear this up…

My point was that he’s looked crappy in ST. And that can’t ever be taken as a good thing. But yet the regular season numbers, the ones that will matter, still support him being effective, and there is a plethora of people who have looked awful in ST and turned it on for the regular season.

Next, in light of the Howry signing, I have no idea what to think of this deal really, because Heilman is better than Maine, but I just don’t know how much, and how much more we need a guy of Maine’s specialties than of Heilman’s.

But the truth is, and this is where I’m making a counter-argument, that if we didn’t go out and get Heilman, someone else would have either by trade or FA signing with a promise of starting. So if we wanted Heilman, this was how we had to get him.

Sorry, and hope this clears it all up. :-P (It’s been a looooooong week)

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 27, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Without any reason or rhyme

I’ll say Kroenke.

Seeing as how A.J. Hinch has already stated that they’ll start the season with eight in the bullpen, it’s really tough to make any calls on this. I’ll take Zavada and Kroenke to edge out Vasquez and Norberto for the last two spots in the ‘pen for the start of the season. Fast forward to a couple of weeks after that and we’ll be discussing this again when it’s time to drop to seven.

My projections for April 5th:

Qualls
Howry
Gutierrez
Heilman
Rosales
Boyer
Zavada
Kroenke

Wear your own fur.

by Marc Fournier on Mar 23, 2010 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Did y'all see how Schoeneweis was released?

His career might be over, tough way to end it.

by venomfan on Mar 24, 2010 7:14 PM EDT reply actions

Ouch

He wasn’t impressed:

“The only regret I have is that I wasted a month of my time. I didn’t have a chance to make the team. That’s what I learned today… It’s just ironic that I can’t get a job because my wife died. It doesn’t make much sense to me.”

"We defy augury" -- Hamlet

by Jim McLennan on Mar 24, 2010 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Irony...

A completed misunderstood word.

Wear your own fur.

by Marc Fournier on Mar 25, 2010 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Irony...

A completely misunderstood word.

Wear your own fur.

by Marc Fournier on Mar 25, 2010 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Tell that

to Alanis Morrisette.

I keep trying to reset my password to "penis", but it keeps telling me "too short".

by DbacksSkins on Mar 25, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions

What I find ironic about the song ironic is that

there are no ironic things in the song.

Only five players have averaged 25 and 10 in their playoff careers. One of them, Dirk Nowitzki.

by Blair Rocket on Mar 25, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions

The more I think about this

The less I’m sure. Kroenke has sucked the proverbial fat one in ST, while Norberto continues to just be filthy. So why is it such a given that we’re going to pick the one who has been worse, especially when picking him means we have one less 40-Man Roster spot to work with? Further, it seems almost like an inevitability that he’s going to be shipped off of the roster at some point since nobody really expects him to succeed from the tone of the comments on this board.

So, if no other spots are cleared up (i.e. if Ryal and Rosales make the Opening Day roster) keep a guy like Drew Macias in AAA instead (his contract does not allow him to opt out if he is assigned to AAA, IIRC), who plays good defense and has shown a surprising amount of ST power, and unload Kroenke now instead of letting Macias, who could have legitimate value over our next replacement OF in the event we have (knocks on wood… literally… mid-class) a couple OF injuries (OF pecking order: Upton, Co-Jack, CY, Parra, Gillespie, Macias), go. Kroenke basically has hit his ceiling – he doesn’t throw hard, and doesn’t have an off-speed pitch that is known to be devastating. He’s just an average-to-below-average reliever who had a great AAA season due to luck.

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 26, 2010 10:53 AM EDT reply actions