AZ SnakePit "Community" Projections, Part Three: Rotation
by Jim McLennan on Mar 15, 2010 2:34 PM EDT
in Diamondbacks Features
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PrintI am using the word "Community" is quotes, given that it now consists of me collating the various projection systems, with only myself and Azreous stepping up to provide numbers of our own. It's disappointing: was talking with him about it, and we're not sure why people are so uninterested this year, after these articles provoked some interesting discussions previously. Maybe someone can explain why they're not offering up any projections?
We move on to the rotation, which has seen huge change since last season - Haren is the only man who made more than 13 starts in 2009 to return. Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Max Scherzer and Yusmeiro Petit, who combined for exactly two-thirds of our games last season, are all gone, and so need to be replaced. We do have two new arrivals in Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, and a host of contenders for the back end of the rotation - who is the #6 starter may rise in importance, depending on how long Webb is out.
After the jump, we'll get on with looking at the numbers coming out of the crystal ball, Tarot cards, animal intestines, or whatever other method of augury you may prefer.
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Haren gets the Opening Day start, and will be expected to be the ace of the team until whenever Webb returns to shoulder some of the load. He was brilliant at the start of 2009, but faded down the stretch, and while I hope that will be addresses in some way this season (was it fatigue?), I can't say I'm counting on it. No reason for him to be anything other than an absolute workhorse: of course, that's what we said about Webb at this point last year, and we know how that worked out. Should benefit from better run support - seven of last year's losses were with zero or one run scored by the offense.
AZ SnakePit: 210 IP, 16-8, 3.20 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
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This is the wild-card. Webb could pitch almost any number of innings, from zero to two hundred, and his effectiveness could range from replacement-level to Cy Young. Obviously, we know what we are hoping for, but trying to put that aside, and with no major road-bumps on his road to recovery, I'd be looking for around 25 starts. It'll be a few weeks in before he comes back, and the team will likely try to manage the schedule to give him off days where possible. Of course, there's also the possibility, depending on how he pitches and team fortunes, that he may not end the season in Arizona...
AZ SnakePit: 150 IP, 9-7, 3.50 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
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Surprised to see that none of the projection systems believe Jackson will even come close to matching 2009, despite a move out of the American League (and, in particular, the AL East). Fangraphs reckoned his success was due to increased use of his slider - Jackson is basically a fastball/slider guy, but his percentage use of the latter went up from 20% to 27%, with hitters swinging at an impressive 37% of those sliders that were out of the strike-zone. The number particularly increased early in the count. Will that be sustainable without arm issues? For now, I don't see any special reason why not.
AZ SnakePit: 200 IP, 12-9, 3.93 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
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Obviously, now his rotation spot is all but locked, the IP will certainly go up. There are certainly some warning signs from Kennedy, such as his fly-ball tendencies, which will not play well in Chase, and may explain why he has been working on a sinking fastball. He has also walked 37 batters in just 59.2 major-league innings, and needs to get back to his walk-rate in the minors (2.8 per nine IP) to have any chance of success. That said, he'll be 25 for all of this season, so still has the potential to develop and improve. If so, he could be a credible mid-rotation starter, If not, then we could be looking at the second coming of Yusmeiro Petit
AZ SnakePit: 160 IP, 8-9, 4.50 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
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Commentary
I think Buckner has the potential to be a breakout pitcher this year. I'm not saying he will, but he seemed a different guy after coming back from Triple-A at the end of last season, and the reports this spring I've heard have not been bad. We're not talking an ace, but I do think he'll be significantly better than the average #5 starter, and the projection systems tend to agree. Last year's figures for Buckner were bloated by an obscene BABIP (.347) and his HR rate was 16.7%, compared to the average of 11-12%. Those should tend to regress to a more normal level, and I'd be happy with an ERA below five.
AZ SnakePit: 165 IP, 9-10, 4.95 ERA, 1.48 WHIP
One final note: adding up those projections for the front five, you get a combined record of 54-43. Eleven games over .500 may seem excessive, but this doesn't include starts from the #6+ guys, which will likely narrow the gap due to their losing record. We've also seen a bigger gap than that of late. In 2008, the starters for the 82-win Diamondbacks were thirteen games over .500 (65-52). Mind you, they also had a collective ERA under four: I think we'd all be deliriously happy if that were to happen this season.
The Sixth Starter
IHateSouthBend already covered the sixth starter candidates in his excellent article last week, so I won't bother rehashing his analysis. However, for completeness, I'll throw up a quick table listing the four candidates he covered (Bryan Augenstein, Rodrigo Lopez, Kevin Mulvey and Cesar Valdez), and what the projection systems have to say about them in 2010 - just the basic ERA and WHIP numbers. [Update: Now that we've signed Kris Benson to a minor-league deal, I've added him to the chart as well]
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I hate to say he should be limited,
but perhaps it would be best for Webb if he didnt try to start 30 games? Maybe have him start a game or two in Reno before coming back to the Majors regardless of how he feels. I dunno, I just want to take a cautionary approach. I would hate to see the Diamondbacks rush him back only to effectively end his career.
Nice strikeout!
The scary thing is
We might [emphasis on might] not care. Because this is his last year here, he’s making $8.5M, so why not try to get everything you can out of him? If something happens, that sucks, have a nice free agency.
A miserable, pathetic way to look at it, and I think we have some more class and respect for the guy than that, but it would be a frightening outlook to take.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 16, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
just want to see these guys pitch some more before making
any half assed guess as to who might break out of or into the rotation. I care about who’s pitching for the team but have been too busy to catch much of the preseason action so I can’t offer any kind of educated guess. Getting Benson is good risk to see if he has anything left. I imagine the Webb “plateau” has them concerned that this year could be a repeat of last year.
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
I haven't offered any input
because 1) I don’t know what I’m talking about, and 2) I don’t know what I’m talking about.
I’ll leave the number crunching to you guys, and hope that the optimism pans out.
What's your name? Sandwich. What's your first name? TUNA.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Mar 15, 2010 5:46 PM EDT reply actions
I don't know
where the numbers come from, so I’ll just use my own comparative analysis:
Haren > Jackson > average > Kennedy > awful > Buckner
Not sure about Webb. I still have my doubts about pitchers’ injured labrums, even it was just “cleanup”. Obviously I’m hoping he goes the way Carpenter did a few years ago (ie, Comeback Player of the Year)
One...more...time!
This is kind of a pain, because the only known commodity is Haren. Webb’s health issues, Jackson’s league switch, Kennedy’s inexperience and Buckner’s somewhat fleeting hold on the fifth spot mean that my guess is as good as anyone’s when it comes to their numbers. But here we go anyway.
Dan Haren
19-7, 3.03 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
Brandon Webb
10-5, 3.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Edwin Jackson
14-10, 3.66 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
Ian Kennedy
11-11, 4.12 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
Billy Buckner
8-11, 4.78 ERA, 1.51 WHIP
era's
i feel like edwin jackson will surprise the projection systems, and if webb is pitching 25+ starts then i’m assuming he’s at almost ace level (otherwise, i just assume webb isn’t pitching period)
my impression of webb is that when he has his stuff, he’s incredible, and when he can’t figure out his sinker, he goes through starts of total suckitude (6 something era’s)
so…being optimistic about webb…
i’ll say that haren/webb/jackson all have era’s between 3-3.5
kennedy has a low 4 era
and buckner has a high 4 era
Edwin Jackson
Always seems to surprise projection systems. FIPs be damned, he always seems to beat them. He’ll have himself a good year.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 16, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I think
EJ is going to be more of a monster than people give him credit for. Haren will be Haren. Webb will be frustrating. Kennedy will be average (ERA slightly over 4). Buckner will be better than expected.
Important point – Buckner had an ERA of 4.60 last year, and clearly showed he was a new, better pitcher in the latter parts of the year. If that holds true, I see no reason why he cannot repeat or possibly improve on this.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 16, 2010 5:11 PM EDT reply actions
WOW
I FAIL SO MUCH.
I swear some site had Buckner’s ERA at 4.60, but it was definitely 6.40. But he still showed he’s better than that… I think we all pray he’s better than that…
I’d say it’s around 4.60 this year.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Mar 16, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I was going to say
“If it was 4.60, what were we complaining about last year?”
But, he did put up a 3.93 ERA in the second half, so we’ll just focus on the second half of that sentence, which remains fairly true. =)
"Now we can just call you Kishi Laptop, Esquire."
haven't contributed numbers
because I’m fairly confident with yours Jim. Why repeat what you essentially just said?
insert signature here
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