Will Mark Reynolds hit more than 40 home runs?

"I just want to see what this guy can do next. Still, we shouldn't minimize the difficulty of what he'll be trying to do. Only five third basemen have ever put together back-to-back 40 homer seasons: Eddie Mathews, Harmon Killebrew, Mike Schmidt, Vinny Castilla and Troy Glaus. I don't think he'll repeat as a 40-homer man next year, though Bill James predicts him for 40, ZiPS projects 33 and CHONE expects 30). I'd like to see his HR/flyball rate stabilize (not to mention his strikeouts), and I want to make sure that his BABIP doesn't just plummet and kick the bottom out of his batting average. I'll put him down for 35 homers next year, but anything can happen in that thin desert air."

over 2 years ago Jim McLennan 12 comments 0 recs |

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ZiPS gives Reynolds a 20% chance at hitting 40 home runs.

I like Remington, but the phrase “thin desert air” makes me a sad panda.

--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com

by D.Szymborski on Feb 12, 2010 3:32 PM EST reply actions

Thin Air

That’s where Remington’s comment must have come from: out of thin air. He didn’t do his homework. If he had he would know that last year The Sheriff blasted 25 on the road against only 19 at home. And that wasn’t a fluke. in 2007-08 combined it was 25 vs. 20.
The real question that needs to be asked about Mark’s 2009 season is: Why didn’t he hit 50? Thru August 17 he was on pace to go over that number. He missed only 3 games until then, but 4 afterward. That hurt his chances. But the real answer is his HR frequency went way down, from one every 11 AB’s to one every 24. Maybe he was hurt and tried to play through it. Or maybe all the losing finally wore him down. Whatever the reason, I believe we didn’t have the real Mark Reynolds for the last quarter of the season. Let’s hope we do in 2010.

by fjm235 on Feb 13, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions

I think he'll do it!

Yeah,go Special K

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the darkness at Tannhauser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die.

by hotclaws on Feb 12, 2010 3:50 PM EST reply actions

Wow

I had no idea how unique Mark Reynolds has been. I’m sure part of that is just getting that many at bats when you strike out so often, but still it will be interesting to watch his progress.

by Craig from Az on Feb 12, 2010 5:02 PM EST reply actions

I like his chances

he did hit 20 after the all star break.

I got baseball, basketball, and football. Why do I need anything else in my life?

by Blair Rocket on Feb 12, 2010 5:27 PM EST reply actions

I'mma

hit 40 home runs this year.

All targets neutralized. Program completed. By your command.

by soco on Feb 12, 2010 5:49 PM EST reply actions

CHONE ?

CHONE Figgins?

I’d say he does 39.

It's Dracula as I approach the bottle.

by edbigghead on Feb 12, 2010 6:18 PM EST reply actions

Mark Reynolds

will hit 162 home runs.

by Azreous on Feb 12, 2010 8:04 PM EST reply actions

165

He gets the extra few in the three game set at the Mets.

"....who in good faith and without too much qualification assented to at least a part of the frankly villainous dictum that all is fair in love and war."
-Ambrose Bierce

by kishi on Feb 12, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions