FanPost

Greinke to the Brewers

For Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, and Jeremy Jeffress.

I am actually reasonably high on Lorenzo Cain. I think in his prime, he can be around a 3 WAR centerfielder, which is pretty valuable. He's never had a lot of power (around a 100 ISO is a pretty reasonable expectation) but he's got plus defense, should be able to swipe 30 bases in a season, and has consistently posted a strong walk rate in the minors (~10%). Speed should keep his BABIP high, though obviously not at his 370 clip from last season. His K rate will probably go up next year, but a wOBA of around 330 can definitely be reasonably expected.

Escobar was basically the number 1 (or 2) ranked prospect in the Brewers system at the beginning of 2010 depending on what source you looked at. However, he's really overrated in my opinion. Poor walk rates, absolutely no power, and that vaunted stolen base ability didn't show up last year. His glove is supposed to be amazing, but even if you think he can generate 1+ WAR defensively at SS, I feel like Escobar's upside is still only a 2 WAR SS. Definitely useful, especially since he's minimum wage right now, but not really a star.

Odorizzi is basically a slightly older slightly less impressive (in my opinion) version of Tyler Skaggs. Jeremy Jeffress projects to be a member of the pen, and probably has as much value (if not slightly less) than Kam Mickolio.

With this trade though, the Royals will definitely become a force to be reckoned with. They got a ton better defensively up the middle, which is probably their only weakness in the farm. Even with Greinke gone, they still have Hochevar and Lamb, Montgomery, and Duffy coming up soon. Now, their everyday lineup will boast Butler, Hosmer, Moustakas, Myers, Escobar, and Cain. And perhaps most importantly, all cheap. I can definitely see them contending for the AL Central in 2012.

So, how does the trade compare to our very own Dan Haren trade? For review, both Greinke and Haren were both coming off relatively bad performances. Greinke had an outstanding year recently, and is generally perceived to be the type of ace Dan Haren isn't, but Haren has been consistently good for a lot longer. Basically the same age, length of deal, and contract commitment. My own belief is that any package for Greinke would and should be better than a package for Haren, but not by that much.

How do you guys think their package compare?

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