PECOTA projects AZ to be tied for the NL wild-card

Baseball Prospectus has released their PECOTA projections, which have Arizona at 85 wins. That's second in the NL West, two games back of the Dodgers, and tied for the wild-card with the Braves. If you look at the individual numbers for Arizona, it loves Upton, LaRoche, and perhaps surprisingly, Kennedy, who is projected for a 3.72 ERA. Now, admiitedly, IIRC, last year, they had us in the high-80 wins, and we know how that worked out. But for now I'll have another cup of that KoolAid.

about 2 years ago Jim McLennan 4 comments 0 recs |

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Pitching Projections

Kennedy’s ERA does seem too good to be true. But he’s only getting 20 starts and 103 IP so he’s not having a big impact. Contrast that with Jackson (30 starts, 171 IP, 4.87), I can’t imagine him being that bad. But if he is he won’t come anywhere near 171 innings.
I have the same problem with Buckner, Augenstein and Mulvey getting 66 starts (41% of the season!) between them with a combined ERA of 4.68. That’s way too much PT for a #5 and 2 spot starters unless one of the top 3 is out for most of the season.
Which brings me to B. Webb. 16 starts is less than half the season. Take 10 starts away from Buckner & Co., give them to Webb and things look a lot better. Notice that Mulvey has the same W-L record as Webb despite an ERA 0.80 higher.

by fjm235 on Jan 28, 2010 7:53 PM EST reply actions