Where will Webb end up in 2011 and beyond?
by justin1985 on Jan 12, 2010 1:41 AM EST
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PrintI posted this on DBBP, but got no responses so here you guys go...
Ive been wondering where Webb might end up so I took a look at current (as of 1/11/2010) rosters:
Keep in mind, I am not accounting for teams that might be loosing a SP next offseason and would be in the market then. Wouldnt it be weird to see Webb in another teams jersey at the 2011 allstar game?
Atlanta- possible, I could see Webb ending up there. Im not sure what we could get back in a trade. Id love to get Tommy Hanson, but Im not to sure thats realistic. We do know his agent has specifically mentioned Atlanta in the past. Would the humidity help a groundball pitcher? He does have a good track record in Turner Field. Having Lowe and Webb in a rotation would make them a force to be reckoned with. If he does go to Atlanta I would begin following them again.
Anaheim- I dont see this as a good fit. They already have Kazmir, Santana, Weaver and Saunders. Perhaps if one of those 4 were a FA in the next offseason.
Baltimore- I doubt Webb ends up here. Not much in terms of tradable commodities, unless they are open to dealing Adam Jones.Baltimore has been known to throw money at FAs to appear competitive in the past, however.
Boston- Maybe we could package Snyder and Webb to Boston at the trade deadline. I like Lars Anderson and Bucholz. Anderson wouldnt be a good fit here though.
Cubs- They do have money so signing Webb would be a possibility, plus they are just north of Kentucky. Didnt Zambrano say 2010 would be his last season? Webb has pitched ok at Wrigley. The Cubs have no one I like in a trade.
White Sox- Another Chicago team with money. I have always liked Peavey and secretly wished he was a Dback. How about a rotation of Peavey, Buerhle, Webb, Floyd? Wow. (I would have to put a lefty in between them)
Cincinnati- To many young stud arms. Unless they move Harang, then a rotation spot would open up.
Cleveland- This is a rebuilding (again) club that has traded 2 Cy Young winners in the last 2 years. I dont think this is a possibility.
Colorado- I highly doubt Webb wants to play in Coors, next.
Detroit- They need to think about locking up Verlander longterm and getting Porcello an extension before looking at FAs. Then again, they have little else as far as SPs. Maybe get Scherzer back to be a closer in a trade. Surprisingly, Webb has made 3 starts at Comerica, with a 1.44 era and .84 WHIP
Florida- No chance, and Webb has historically sucked in Dolphin Stadium.
Houston- in a hitters park, Webb is 3-0 with a 1.48 era and .857 WHIP in 4 starts and 30 ip. Im not sure if that means Houston sucks, or he likes it there 
They have been trying to trade Oswalt for years, Im not sure they would be in a position to go out and get Webb. That said, they did sign Lyon and Brett Myers.
Kansas City- You never know. They did throw all that money at Guillen and Mech to suck.
LA- Kill me now.
Milwaukee- Do the Brewers have the finances to pull this off? All they need to compete (not that they arent a top team now) is a true ace. Miller park has not been kind to Webb in the past, though.
Minnesota- See above. Maybe their new stadium will be a good pitchers park.
NYM- I dont think Webb will end up in either NY market. Maybe that is wishful thinking.
NYY- They have already signed Sabathia, Burnett, Vazquez and resign Pettite. Where would Webb fit? I really hope he doesnt end up in that dump in NY.
Oakland- rebuilding penny pinching team.
Philadelphia- Webb has been bad/mediocre at Citizens Bank Park. They have Hamels, Halladay and Kendrick. Maybe Philadelphia could sign him if Kendrick is a flash in the pan and Moyer retires.
Pittsburgh- Great stadium, crappy team and ownership. No way.
San Diego- rebuilding, crappy team.
San Francisco- It isnt in the middle of the country, but Webb has pitched well at ATT park. That would give them a rotation of Lincecum, Webb, Cain. 
Seattle- I think the pacific northwest might be too far from home for Webb. I think Seattle could afford it though and they are in a position to start being competitive.
St Louis- Maybe. I could see this happening. Then again, they just signed Holliday, so the Cardinals might not want to add additional payroll so soon. Webb has not pitched well in Stl.
Tampa Bay- I dont know if they would have the revenue to pull this one off.
Texas- I think this is a posibility. I dont know how Webb feels about the AL, but Texas is a team that looks like they are poised to start being a good team. All they really lack is an ace. Webb got lit up in his only start at Arlington. (edit- now that I look at the box score, it seems more like a case of Melvin leaving a starter in too long- 2006 season)
Toronto- In a couple years, they could be competitive. However, they play in the same division as NYY, Bos and TB so stand little chance.
Washington- No, just no.
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- ahem -
That would give them a rotation of Lincecum, Webb, Cain, Sanchez, Zito.
/drools
I ran it up the flagpole at McC, but got a resounding “Meh”.
I guess we’re a little uh, spent…and Tim’s arb hasn’t even happened yet.
And couple that with our Eli Whitneylike approach to positional players and you have to be amused impressed!
"I don’t know why people feel the need to come up with reasons 'why' for everything..." - Missing Barry
by victor frankenstein on Jan 12, 2010 9:01 AM EST reply actions
I LOL'd
at Posey’s spot on the catcher depth chart.
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
Deliberately (and very hopefully) not listed(yet): B. Molina
"I don’t know why people feel the need to come up with reasons 'why' for everything..." - Missing Barry
by victor frankenstein on Jan 12, 2010 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
Did you hear
that Posey wasn’t even playing for the Scorpions?
It’s tough to figure out.
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
by DbacksSkins on Jan 12, 2010 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
Behind Uribe and Renteria? lol
And yeah, maybe Curt could have asked Posey to be his personal catcher :P
Actually
I believe the Giants will trade for Tuffy Gosewisch first. ;-)
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Jan 12, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
Meow?
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
Because, ya know,
the one thing the Giants need is more pitching. After they get Webb, they can let Pablo Sandoval walk. ;-)
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
by DbacksSkins on Jan 12, 2010 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
Not even Pablo himself allows that.
Gee, Snakepit pages set up so quickly on my browser!
I wonder why that is…
"I don’t know why people feel the need to come up with reasons 'why' for everything..." - Missing Barry
by victor frankenstein on Jan 12, 2010 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
argh! you froze my browser.
:::shakes fist:::
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
/cackles wildly
"I don’t know why people feel the need to come up with reasons 'why' for everything..." - Missing Barry
by victor frankenstein on Jan 13, 2010 4:59 AM EST up reply actions
Yankees.
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
And to be fair,
Webb’s sinker would no doubt play really well in New York — not only will it break more at low altitude, but it’ll keep the ball in the park at the homerun haven that is New Yankee Stadium.
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
If he doesn’t play for us again, I expect him to head east.
"I can just see it: Post 'Intervention? Why would I need an intervention?' And then he'd +1 himself."
East, but not Yankees
From this story, “We’ve had a great time in Arizona, and if everything works out and we stay here, that would be good. But to get back close to home (in Kentucky) would be just as good.” I think Webb would have no problems trading a couple of million to be where he wants to be. I don’t think New York would be a good fit for him, he’s definitely not a city clicker. Where’s the closest stadium to Ashland? Cincinnati? Atlanta?
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Jan 12, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
Reds are the closest....
but, as someone mentioned in vic’s McCC thread, I have a feeling that Webby’s just being diplomatic.
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
by DbacksSkins on Jan 12, 2010 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
I think Webb is serious about location
I’d imagine that he’ll aim for middle/southern America:
Reds, Astros, Rangers, Royals, Braves, Rays, Cardinals, White Sox, Cubbies, Marlins, and the DBacks.
From that list I’d eliminate the Royals, Marlins, and Rays.
From that list I see it breaking down like this:
8. Reds: Even though they don’t have an ace, they have a lot of money and effort tied up in their young pitching core. I see them waiting on that group to develop and not nabbing established pitchers from the outside until they think they can make a run at it. But maybe that could open up by next year.
7. White Sox: they have the money to spend, I just doubt Webby really wants to end up in Chicago.
6. Cubbies: ditto
5. Cardinals: they’re perhaps the team most likely to trade for Webb this year and they do have a big payroll. But they’re pushing into “beyond their means” territory. I don’t see how they can tie up any more money in big contracts with Pujols’ contract up after 2011.
4. Astros: the Astros always have the money to spend and rebuilding isn’t in their vocabulary. The thing is, they don’t tend to go for the really big fish, they just tend to overspend for the medium sized fish.
3. DBacks: Even though things soured last year b/w the management and Brandon, I still think he’s a loyal guy and the organization loves him. I think the organization will examine what they think the best window is for the organization: 2011-2012 (before J-Up) leaves, or saving everything to re-sign Upton and going for it in 2013 and beyond.
2. Braves: I’m sure this has to be Brandon’s #1 destination and the Braves love getting big pitchers, and they have a decent payroll, but I just don’t know if they’re going to be going for it after Cox retires. It seems like the window they’re really pushing for is now (although I don’t see that happening).
1. Rangers: the market is smallish, they have fairly deep pockets, an owner who has been itching to win, a young pitching stud (Feliz), a weak division, and fair to good offense.
There’s my two cents.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Trade or Free Agency?
It looks to me like you are mostly looking at the trade possibilities with these teams. If so, where’s the faith, man? Why would we trade Webb right before a WS run? :)
Ive asked this question around the baseball world in different chats, but haven’t recieved a decent response and was waiting for Jim’s pitching article to adress it, but I’ll ask it here:
What are the chances that Webb pitches well enough to rank as a Type A or B player next off-season?
I know the rankings take injury into account. We all saw what happened to Wagner coming off a lengthy injury and making only a couple weeks worth of appearences last year; type A. I think Webbs status will be a game changer in our decision to hold on to him down the stretch or get more out of him in a trade.
Unless this team is a lot worse than I think or they have another series of injuries like last year, I think it’s very unlikely Webby gets traded. It’s much more likely in my mind that we’ll trade for someone than deal someone mid-year.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Out of race?
Don’t you think we would explore trades as long as we were “out of the race” for the playoffs? I fully expect to be competing right down to the wire, but in a division with 3 or 4 close teams I could also easily imagine the worst by July. Inter division play is going to be crucial this year (as it is every year, I suppose).
by Counsellmember on Jan 12, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
That’s what I’m saying. Unless we’re out of the race I very much doubt we’ll deal Webb. And I have a very hard time imagining a scenario where’d we’d be out of the race in July in the NL West this year (maybe San Diego will be out of the race in July, but hard to imagine anyone else out of it).
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Instinct says trade
Weird about Wagner, but you’re right: 27 Sv and 66.2 IP doesn’t seem like Type-A stuff, even with 78 K’s and a 2.15 ERA over 2008-09.
Anyway, even if Webb was a Type A, if he’s healthy and effective I’d enivisage a haul for Webb like the one the Brewers had to paid the Indians for Sabathia – a similar Cy Young quality pitcher, with half a season left before free agency. I think that’s probably more valuable than a low first-round draft pick and a sandwich.
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Jan 12, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
Confused
“Anyway, even if Webb was a Type A, if he’s healthy and effective I’d enivisage a haul for Webb…”
I may have interpreted your sentance incorrectly, but I was postulating that a Type A status would increase Webb’s value; both to us and to a trade partner. If he is a ranked player and he would be an excellent candidate for arbitration, as the chances of him accepting a one year deal seem remote.
Accept or decline, it’s a win/win for the team that controls him at the end of 2010.
by Counsellmember on Jan 12, 2010 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, that's right
My implication was that we’d get significantly more for him in trade than we would offering him arb as a free agent.
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Jan 12, 2010 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
That would be great!
But can’t see it happening. Unless injury is a factor again and he can;t get a multi year contract, in which case, arbitration would probably not be offered anyway.
by Counsellmember on Jan 12, 2010 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
Right
But trade or keep, a Type A status would benefit us. I’d still really like to know just how well he’d have to pitch to get there, although I guess it also depends on the performance of the league as a whole in ’10.
by Counsellmember on Jan 12, 2010 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
A good point was brought up on dbbp
Webb missed all of last year, so regardless of how well he pitches next year, he may not achieve A status. It goes by the last 2 years, so hed essentially only have half the necessary stats. Maybe I (and the person that posted that over there) am mistaken on how it works, though.
See the comment up the thread
About Billy Wagner, who was a Type A despite only throwing a dozen innings in 2009. There appears to be some kind of injury adjustment possibly in effect.
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Jan 12, 2010 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
from stu
Relief pitchers have different criteria than starters. Here are the stats used
SP: Total games (total starts + 0.5 * total relief appearances), IP, Wins, W-L Percentage, ERA, Strikeouts
RP: Total games (total relief appearances + 2 * total starts), IP (weighted slightly less than other categories), Wins + Saves, IP/H ratio, K/BB, ERA
RP has three rate categories and one of the counting categories is weighted less than the others. SP has only two rate categories.
You think we’ll trade even if we’re in contention, Jim?
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
I'd hope not
In that case, ride him into the playoffs until his elbow drops off, and take the draft picks.
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Jan 12, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
by njjohn on Jan 12, 2010 6:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Baltimore and Rangers
Webb makes a lot of sense to both these clubs. IMO, the O’s will spend big on an Ace next year to anchor their young but talented rotation. Also a little less pressure than the other AL East teams.
The Rangers should be interested in groundball pitchers. That’s it.
So much top of the rotation starters in next year’s FA pool means plenty to go around. I could see him being a great fit anywhere, but I expect the big big money teams to go after Lee and Beckett or other more “flashy” SPs.
I agree with the Rangers.
Disagree with Baltimore. I know they have money, I just dont think Webb wants to go to a division that the only race is for 3rd place.
I also think location has a big part to play… and Baltimore (for anybody, but especially a Kentucky boy) is no draw.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Yeah
I put Baltimore up there as a fit for the team, but probably not as good from Webb’s perspective.
However, I do think Baltimore is going to be a factor starting in ‘11. I’m waiting for a pretty big splash from them in next year’s FA market, which, combined with their youth, should allow them to compete.
by Counsellmember on Jan 12, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
You’re right. They have some good pieces there and they’ve never been afraid to spend. I just doubt Webb will leap.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Agreed
Ive got two good friends who are O’s fans, and they are both chomping at the bit waiting for a team that can compete out there. I’m glad AZ doesn’t play in such a division…or league for that matter.
by Counsellmember on Jan 12, 2010 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
NL West TempestTeapot
Pretending to play baseball since the end of 2002..
"I don’t know why people feel the need to come up with reasons 'why' for everything..." - Missing Barry
by victor frankenstein on Jan 13, 2010 5:07 AM EST up reply actions
you say no to the nationals
but they have been willing to throw money around. I wouldn’t discount them in free agency, they were outbid by the Red Sox for Lackey, but if Webb is looking for money if could happen. I hope he stays with us though.
Love to see him stay
I’d like to think the FO could get creative and offer him a big 3 year deal with a player option of a fourth say something along the lines of 3x $15 Million or something along the lines of what Jake Peavy did and got for 3 years 52 million.
I don’t like to say this after a certain contract extension given to a certain outfielder…. but he Is a big part of this franchise and has been loyal and well loved. That in itself doesn’t justify a big contract right this second but proving he comes back and is the Webb of old we should at least seriously try and work something out.
If he does leave then I agree with the Atlanta thoughts, but with the rotation they currently have it would be difficult to see them committing heavy money to Webby in 2011/2012.
The Mets make sense to me as a team that is in desperate need of a No2 starter and isn’t in a rebuilding process either. Rangers and Astros also make a lot of sense though I’m not sure what their financial powers will be given ownership questions.
But really I just don’t want to see him go :(
Time for another drink then?
http://www.wimbles.wordpress.com
Byrnes isn’t in the same stratosphere as Webb.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Well obviously
But I was referring to the idea that we only keep him on because he’s the face of the franchise etc :D
Time for another drink then?
http://www.wimbles.wordpress.com
Contract extension
If Webb finishes the year with us, I would definately like to make him a significant contract for something like just what you said, 3 year/45M and a player option. It’s probably not enough to get it done, but Webb probably won’t be the top pitcher on the market next year. He may be #3 or 4 or even lower depending on how he does this year. It could be that we luck out and benefit from being the current home team.
by Counsellmember on Jan 13, 2010 12:57 AM EST up reply actions
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