D(ro)o We Have Cause for Concern?

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 16, 2009 6:29 PM EDT in Randomness

Amidst a year full of disappointments flowing from every orifice of this team, one of the more prevalent disappointments as of late has been the continued decline of Stephen Drew, Mr. Extra Bases of 2008. Obviously, his season hasn't been as bad overall as the seasons of Eric Byrnes, Chris Young, Chris Snyder, Chad Tracy, and Drew even possesses a higher OPS in '09 than Gerardo Parra, whose rookie campaign has generally been thought of as a success, but it's bad enough to make me wonder why they haven't placed anybody more suitably-qualified in the second-spot in the lineup on an everyday basis (MiggyMo?).

However, I believe that his struggles have received either as much or more ire as all of those players for a wide-ranging yet strong list of reasons. After a crappy first couple of weeks to start the season, nobody had the expectations for Byrnes that they had for Drew after Drew's stellar 2008. CY's season has been a complete disaster, but he has showed signs of turning it around and at least becoming a servicable bat in center field as of late, whereas Drew has not, and at least CY has been healthy all year. Snyder's injuries have plagued him all season, but the impact of his downfall has been padded by Miguel Montero's immense success, while our only backup plan currently on the roster for Drew for this season and 2010 (or at least until September 2010 when Pedro Ciriaco may be called up) is Augie Ojeda, who likely won't be on the roster in 2010 for lack of ability. As the case with Byrnes, anything we received from Tracy's injury-riddled knees was considered to be extra-credit for a team that had become accustomed to him being on the disabled list, while expectations for Drew were high. Parra's in the midst of his rookie season, whereas Drew's broke into the big-leagues with 59 games in 2006.

It's also worth noting that among that list of players, Byrnes, Snyder, and Tracy are likely to be gone by Opening Day 2010, and CY and Parra will each be fighting for playing time in a very crowded outfield picture for 2010. Drew is being handed the everyday shortstop job on a silver platter. The only shortstops on Reno's roster at the end of the season were Taylor Harbin, called up for a short stint from Hi-A Visalia and definitely not ready for the majors, and respective over-30 major-league washouts Ed Rogers and Abraham Nunez. Further, this isn't a club that has the luxury of spending money on an above-average stop-gap backup option for a position that is supposed to have a key part of its nucleus under control for multiple years stationed there, especially since the position is one that often is worth a high premium.

So with the intro under the belt, time to get into the stats themselves that lead us worried and try to see whether Drew has been subjct to issues of luck, if his struggles are less temporary issues, or a combination of both, as well as to see if he has made improvements in any areas of his game this season amidst the general feeling of disappointment that hovers over his '09 campaign. All stats are before today's game against the Padres, which, at the time of this sentence, he is 0-3 in with a two runners left on base, including one in scoring position.

SEASON	G	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	K	BB	K/BB	H	2B	3B	HR	ISO	K-RATE	BB-RATE	BABIP
2008	152	.291	.333	.502	.835	110	109	41	2.7:1	178	44	11	21	.211	16.7%	6.3%	.322
2009	121	.258	.321	.433	.754	93	78	46	1.7:1	122	27	10	12	.175	15.0%	8.9%	.283

Admittedly, these stats are a little confusing at times, and people will certainly be trying to balance the negative effects his ISO drop against the positive effects of his decrease in strikeout rate and increase in walk rate in an attempt to judge the overall effects on his numbers. To try to put this in perspective, I re-calculated Drew's line using the same at-bat (473 in 2009), home run, strikeout, and sacrifice fly (6 in 2009) totals Drew has accumulated in 2009, but with 2008's BABIP, using the following formula:

(H - HR) / (AB - HR - K + SF) = .322 -- (x - 12) / (473 - 12 - 78 + 6) = .322 -- x = (.322)(473 - 12 - 78 + 6) + 12 -- x = (.322)(389) + 12 -- x = 125.258 + 12

So, rounding remainder to the nearest hit, we find that x = 137, an improvement of 15 hits from his current 2009 total of 122. Since he keeps the same number of walks per plate-appearance and strikeouts per plate-apperanace (none of the three variables were affected by the re-calculation of hits), then his OBP-BA and SLG-BA (a.k.a. ISO) also remain unchanged. This means that Drew's line comes out to:

Batting Average: 137 / 473 = .290

On-Base Percentage: .321 - .258 = .063 -- .290 + .063 = .353

Slugging Percentage: ISO = .175 -- .290 + .175 = .465

On-Base Plus Slugging: .353 + .465 = .818

OPS+: (93 / .754) = (x / .818) -- (93 / .754)(.818) = x -- x = 101

This adjustment of BABIP by 39 points gives Drew an adjusted OPS increase of 64 points, and an OPS+ increase of 8 points, taking him from a below league-average offensive producer to being barely above league-average. However, there are two very important points to make here. The first point is that Drew's BABIP isn't necessarily destined to rise to his 2008 total again. He could spend the rest of his career with a BABIP around the .280 mark like he has now, and would be a much less valuable producer. The second point to make is that even with this adjustment, while it makes Drew's season a lot more palatable, it does not make Drew's season as good as his 2008 campaign, in which his OPS was .835 and OPS+ was 110. Thus, his raw power and on-base numbers from 2009, before the luck factor is involved, are inferior to those of last season.

In my opinion, I don't think it's wise to depend on Drew's BABIP rising back to its 2008 total, as .280 and .320 both appear to be fairly evenly distanced from a typical BABIP (although I could, of course be wrong). If this is the case it's up to Drew to regain his Isolated Power Output from 2008, something less to do with luck and more to do with skill. If that ISO from 2008 was a fluke, then it's easy to imagine that we'll be in for yet another rough year from Drew next season. Drew needs to reach that 20/40/10 HR/2B/3B potential that he was acclaimed as a top-prospect for in order to be an everyday, top-of-the-lineup (probably best for the two-spot in the lineup w/Upton & Reynolds in place) player. If that isn't there, he is exactly what he has been this year, a sixth-or-seventh-hitter miscast as a leadoff or second-spot hitter. Do we have cause for concern? That would be a painful and depressing yes, we do.

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Droo

also has higher expectations placed upon him, fairly or unfairly, since he was a first round draft pick, much like how Eric Byrnes’ contract draws unfair ire upon his failure to produce.

Posting 65 comments/day since June '07.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 16, 2009 7:31 PM EDT reply actions

Good analysis, by the way.

Somehow, the fact that he’s associated with both Scott Boras and J.D. Drew aren’t promising to me, either.

Posting 65 comments/day since June '07.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 16, 2009 8:18 PM EDT reply actions

Some random thoughts on Drew

It has become totally obvious to me that Drew does not have real HR power to the power alley or to CF. Almost every time he squares one up, it short hops or hits the wall. He can pull the ball and get it out, but he really doesn’t have opposite field power, either. So 20 HRs a year might be a stretch, unless he tries to pull the ball more, which IMO would be a mistake. He would “roll over” his swing more and his BA would go down.

He really is more of a spray the ball to all fields hitter, with the ability to drive the ball in the gaps for doubles and triples.

I’m kind of on the fence as to what the expectations for Drew should be. I tend to think something between this year and last year is about right. I think his production was hurt somewhat this year by his being in the leadoff spot so much. He really isn’t a leadoff hitter, although he does have some of the attributes of one. Don’t really like him at #2 either and his numbers in that slot have not been good.

I tend to like him at #5, where he can focus on driving the ball, and where he should get better pitches to hit. With the break-out year for Reynolds, I think this is a good spot for Drew. I also like the sequence of Upton, Reynolds and Drew.

In any event, I don’t think you can talk about Drew in the context of Young, Byrnes, etc. Apples to oranges.

I am most disappointed about Tracy. It wasn’t that long ago people were saying he would win a batting title one day. I, for one, was expecting and hoping he would have a bounce back year of good health, especially when CoJack went down. I just hope Chad doesn’t land with an NL club and spend the rest of his career tormenting the Diamondbacks with clutch hits.

by azjazzman on Sep 16, 2009 8:35 PM EDT reply actions

You have a lot of good points

Drew is and always will be a pull-HR guy. If he gets a ball to turn on, that’s about what you can hope for. But he did have 21 HR doing that a year ago (and a pretty solid BA), and is still young, so it’s not out of the question.

I’d respectfully disagree with your lineup, because of the fact that Miguel Montero is also in the picture at #5. Miggy is less of an on-base threat and has significantly less speed than Drew, which is what you want at #2. Montero’s power seems to slot extremely well at #5, provided that Drew can get on base enough to be a good #2. If Drew continues to fail, Montero goes to #2 (or leadoff if CY doesn’t use this hot streak as an opportunity to break out of his dry spell & regain his former lineup position). Plus, I’d imagine Drew would get better pitches to hit when Upton and Reynolds are respectively on-deck and in the hole, rather than when Reynolds has just cleared the bases.

My brother: Did you see the genre of this song [Wake Up by Arcade Fire]?
Me: Isn't it Alternative?
My brother: No, it was funeral. Most depressing thing ever. I s*** you not. Go look it up.
Me: ::checks iTunes:: That's the album title.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 17, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I like Droo better at #2 as well

because he can draw walks and put the ball in play. Actually, I think I like either Droo or CoJack (God willing) at 2, Upton at 3, Mark at 4, Miggy at 5, CY at 6.

Imagine the kinda lineup we’d have if we had 2009 Upton, Mark and Miggy, 2008 Droo and CoJack, and 2007 or 2008 CY?

Posting 65 comments/day since June '07.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 17, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions

CY Leadoff?

Or any other suggestions?

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 17, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm almost tempted

to bat CoJack leadoff. Batting CY leadoff has always seemed kinda silly to me — yeah, he’s got speed, but he doesn’t have a particularly high OBP.

Posting 65 comments/day since June '07.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 17, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions

That doesn't sound like a terrible idea

But depends on Co-Jack coming back. Although he’s certainly got the skills and is a big on-base guy. But also CY has vastly upped his walk-rate this year so he may fit the bill a bit more now.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 17, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions

One of the things

that I don’t like about the stats only approach is that none of these stats exist in a vacuum. One relates to another and so on.

Doesn’t it really matter that much that CY has upped his walk total when he is hitting below the Mendoza line? I say no. All it tells me is that he is taking pitches that he should be driving somewhere and sometimes gets the call on borderline pitches. My eyes tell me that too. When I have watched CY this year, I am continually shaking my head at the pitches he is taking. I’m all for being selective, but for a CF with CY’s bat speed, I want him being aggressive (as he has shown lately) and driving some balls.

If he maintains the higher walk total when he is hitting the ball the way he is capable of, then hey, that is great. Until then, not so much.

by azjazzman on Sep 17, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions

To the contrary

His BA is down because he was hitting a bunch of popups because his swing was messed up, and he’s actually gotten the short end of the stick as far as some of the pitches he’s taken being called strikes. If his swing has fixed itself, he could have a career year next season.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 17, 2009 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Boy I disagree with this

so much, I don’t know where to start.

About all I can say is: you have been watching a different Chris Young than I have.

Yes, his swing was messed up, but just as importantly he was taking hittable pitches and swinging at crap out of the strike zone. I lost count of the times he got into an 0-2 hole by taking the first two pitches right down the middle, or taking the first one and swinging at a ball.

by azjazzman on Sep 17, 2009 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I suppose

this comment means you never saw this article…

Posting 65 comments/day since June '07.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 17, 2009 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions

It's true

that I had not seen this before, but now that I have read it, I really don’t see that it contradicts what I have observed at all. It certainly confirms what I said about CY taking a lot of strikes in his efforts to be “selective”.

Some of the conclusions drawn by others in that article may be different from mine, but that is all interpretation anyway.

by azjazzman on Sep 18, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Look at Drew's splits

batting #2 the last two years. Not good.

by azjazzman on Sep 17, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, then CoJack.

He hardly strikes out, he doesn’t have much in the way of home run power, but he’s great at getting on base. Droo’s 2nd best spot in the lineup, numberswise, is 4th, but I don’t think anyone thinks we should bat him cleanup.

IMO, it’s more a question of BoMel or AJ letting Droo bat leadoff when he’s doing well otherwise. It’s the same thing if you look at Mark Reynolds’ statistics. Is he slumping a bit now because he’s batting 5th, rather than cleanup? No, but he IS slumping now, so AJ moved him from 4th to 5th in the order.

Posting 65 comments/day since June '07.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 17, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions

The lineup

You would think Drew would thrive as a #2 hitter, but his numbers don’t reflect that. I have always thought that hitting 2nd and 8th required a certain mentality and an special approach. It appears Drew just doesn’t have the make-up of a quality #2 hitter.

Miggy, OTOH, seems to do well wherever you put him in the lineup.

To address another point, I’m not sure hitting in front of Reynolds necessarily gets you better pitches to hit. Even with his impressive power numbers, I think teams still view Reynolds as a potential escape hatch. They go right after him, because those 200+ strikeouts say “Pitch to me when you need an out”. That is why I don’t agree with those that say Reynolds striking out 200+ times is not a problem if he hits .280, with 40+ HRs and 100 RBIs. I say it is a problem, that is too many unproductive outs and too many rallies killed.

by azjazzman on Sep 17, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions

well I guess isn't he about overdue for his sophmore slump then?

or perhaps he can be just like his brother, you can see the talent, get glimmers of it, but consistency is just not in the cards. I dunno if I can fully describe it, he’s not a fiery guy in the clubhouse, doesn’t display a lot of emotion one way or another, so you can take that as being either a cold fish or he’s even keeled (depending upon how you view such things). It could be that he’s simply caught up in the ennui of the season, namely, the club wasn’t going anywhere this year and Drew’s emotional investment in the season is reflected accordingly.

I think that is unfortunately telling because your SS is supposed to be something akin to your field general, and if this guy feels that he’s fighting a losing battle, then perhaps that is also being reflcted on our overall fielding woes. Reynolds is at least trying but he’s no Brooks Robinson out there but he doesn’t control the heart of the club like Drew does from his fielding position.

Maybe it’s just a bad year and the whole team was caught up in it emotionally. Especially for those players that are “established”. You think about it, the #1 starter goes down, the #4 pitcher has cancer, your LOOGY has his wife die in the middle of the season, the starting LF and 1B go down with injuries that mean multiple months out and add to that his own injury, that of Snyder and your double play partner gets shipped out, cripes where does it end? Maybe his emotional makeup just checked out when faced with all of that. We have to remember at times that despite these guys being professionals, that the majority of them are in their mid 20’s and who really knows about their maturity level, especially when you add in to the mix a change in management and things like watching old vets get cut in the middle of the season and the spectre of dealing with a teammates loss and depression. It could be a bit difficult for some of these guys to simply maintain their focus.

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on Sep 16, 2009 9:04 PM EDT reply actions

I thought

his sophomore slump was in 2007.

Also, Doug Davis’ cancer was last year.

Posting 65 comments/day since June '07.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 17, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Besides,

Droo’s always been like this. He’s just not an emotional guy — you get the sense that, for him, it’s just a job.

Posting 65 comments/day since June '07.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 17, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Some players

are just like that. That doesn’t mean that the competitive fire doesn’t burn as deeply or that they aren’t trying hard.

Some athletes need to maintain a calm demeanor to focus and concentrate. There are many, many examples of this – Henry Aaron, for instance.

And some players need to jump around and hot dog to compete, examples would be Pete Rose and Eric Byrnes. Those tend to be fan favorites (when they are producing).

But don’t assume that because Drew doesn’t act like Byrnes that he is just punching the clock. I have observed some instances – like the 2007 playoffs, when you could see visually how intense the competitive fires are inside Drew. For him, a small, almost imperceptible fist pump is more expressive than one of EB’s back flips.

by azjazzman on Sep 17, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions

my bad 'Skins

so in TV prime time soap opera equivalency that moves this season down from a Dallas Cliffhanger to a regular season episode of Dynasty then?

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on Sep 17, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah.

We’re moving towards Grey’s Anatomy territory here.

Posting 65 comments/day since June '07.

by DbacksSkins on Sep 17, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Drooooo

One shouldn’t throw out the baby with the bathwater. Drew is a major league talent and I expect should the D’Backs’ challenge again, he’d be right there in the mix.

by NASCARbernet on Sep 16, 2009 10:17 PM EDT reply actions