Mark Reynolds - fluke or the real thing?
by golfmanthee on Aug 14, 2009 2:15 PM EDT
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PrintHave been real up in the air about Mark Reynolds for awhile. Obviously the guy strikes out a lot but count me among those who think that Ks aren't THAT bad. OTOH, extreme strikeout guys don't tend to have long or great careers with a few obvious exceptions. Reason is simple: hitting requires making contact with the ball and if you fail to make contact with the ball a lot, you have problems being a consistent. productive hitter.
If you go to Fangraphs.com, they have stats on swing percentages both in and out of the strike zone and contact rate info and Reynolds does NOT go out side the zone any more than an average major leaguer. He does swing at more pitches in the zone but really he strikes out because his contact rate is the worst in baseball. IOW, he just swings and misses a LOT (from the department of "Duh. . . .") That's the kind of stat that makes me think this is a little flukey and maybe this is his career year now.
Ahhhh, but when he does hit it he hits it a long way. With his burst since the AS break he sits at 36 HRs and seems certain to clear 40 HR, probably by at least a few. HItting 40 HR isn't as big a deal as it used to be but it also tends to be the province of more etablished players. Reynolds just turned 26 but for the purposes of statistical analysis this is his age 25 season since that was his age on June 30th (July 1st in some places). I was poking around baseball-reference and ran a search for all players who hit 40+ HR in their age 25 (or younger) season. Here's the list (with multiples in parenthesis):
Prince Fielder
Mark Teixeira
Albert Pujols (3)
Adam Dunn (2)
Adrian Beltre
Troy Glaus (2)
A Rod (4)
Vlad (2)
Richard Hidalgo
Junior (2)
Frank Thomas
Juan Gonzalez (2)
Jose Canseco
Mark McGwire
Jim Rice
Johnny Bench (2)
Reggie Jackson
Dick Allen
Willie McCovey
Harmon Killebrew (2)
Orlando Cepeda
Rocky Colavito (2)
Hank Aaron
Mickey Mantle
Wally Post
Eddie Mathews (3)
Ernie Banks
Willie MAys (2)
Ralph Kiner (2)
Joe Dimaggio
Hal Trosky
Jimmie Foxx (2)
Chuck Klein (2)
Mel Ott
Lou Gehrig
Babe Ruth
While the 1st stats about contact rate trouble me, that list just makes me go WOW! There are some guys on that list who never quite matched that again (Wally Post, Adrian Beltre, Richard Hidalgo who IIRC got hurt and was out of baseball by 30) but the vast majority of that list is HOFers, near HOFers, MVPs and multiple time All-Stars. In fact of the 36 names on that list, an astounding 23 of them eventually won MVP awards (and 2 of the guy swho didn't are in the HOF - Ott & Mathews).
Now Reynolds probably isn't headed toward the upper echelon of that list but still. . . . .
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He's started taking walks
which is a good sign .I think his SOs will go down.I personally will take the strike outs for the HRs.and hope with age the ratio improves.
I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the darkness at Tannhauser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die.
Nice post
Duly promoted. Reynolds is certainly promising, but I suspect now the word is out, pitchers will start approaching him differently. We’ll see how this affects the production – if Mark can adapt [even if that means he walks more and homers less], then that will give us some idea of his legitimate level of offense.
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
he's adapted already
time and again in his short career. but i understand [your definition] of adapting to be not going outside the zone. i think he can and will follow through on that.
what i didn’t imagine he could do is possibly hit over .280 with record strike outs! as stated in the post, he misses the ball a lot, and it doesn’t take a fangraph to know it. i always figured he have to cut down to hit .275 even.
the name of the team is The DIAMONDBACKS
I think that. . . .
the Mets series showed that teams are starting to respect him greatly. The Mets walked him in the 5th of a 1 run game with a RH on the mound and 2 lefties coming up. That’s pujols like treatment. . . . .
by golfmanthee on Aug 14, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
40 HRs
it should at some point be a bigger deal again, being that most of the juicers have either retired or quit juicing.
"Have a take and do not suck or you will get run." - Jim Rome
Reggie Jackson
All time strikeout leader.
Decent career.
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 14, 2009 4:33 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
If Reggie Jackson
had a decent career, I’d hate to see what a great career looks like. He’s definately one of the greatest players to ever play the game.
Go Diamondbacks!
Reggie Jackson = decent career
Justin Upton = great career
"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia
sorry, I meant that comment to be a bit more tongue-in-cheek
Seth Smith status: Finally Getting Playing time
Mike McCoy status: FREE MIKE MCCOY
by Andrew Martin on Aug 15, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Here is tonight’s D-Backs lineup:
Drew SS
Roberts LF
Parra CF
Reynolds 1B
Montero C
Ryal 2B
Oeltjen RF
Ojeda 3B
Haren P
and, for the sake of completeness, the Dodgers lineup:
Furcal, SS
Martin, C
Ethier, RF
Manny, LF
Blake, 3B
Loney, 1B
Kemp, CF
Hudson, 2B
Kershaw, P
by Eric Stephen on Aug 14, 2009 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice post.
But if he can hit .265-.275/.360/.550 and 40 HR a year his K’s will be overlooked. He’s actually a decent player outside of the HR department, he’s got great XB ability and can steal some bases. I’m not too worried about him, he’ll have a nice peak, which the only thing I really want.
Who cares if he isn’t a HoF’er? A long, great career is for an individual player’s bragging rights, a good peak is what a team wants if they’re going to compete, something I can see out of Reynolds. Now, the question is how good the team will be outside of the slugger to make his peak worthwhile.
I pretty much
agree with this post in its entirety.
"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia
HR #38 tonight!
"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia
Another comment on Reynolds. Does anyone have a player they think compares well to Reynolds in term of a similar swing? I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a player with his swing and results before? He has a fascinating swing — compact, effortless, very little upper cut for a HR hitter. Maybe Cecil Fielder? The guys who I think of in terms of having a similar swing (I think of George Brett), have had very different results. Usually a swing like his results in high average, low power.
"Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America."
-- Bruce Catton
Choppy is what I call it.
He also seems to lean upper body into each pitch. I probably won’t be able to find you someone though, unless I do some research, something I don’t want to do for this topic.
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 16, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe not his swing..
but his overall skill set reminds me a lot of mike schmidt
"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair
by C. Wesley Baier on Aug 18, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
50+
The Sheriff has now hit 38 HR’s in 116 games. (He sat out 3 games.) If he plays all the remaining games, at that pace he will finish with 52. So you should cut your list down to those who hit 50 or more by age 25.
Even that may not be restrictive enough. Since the ASB he’s hit 14 in just 29 games. If he can keep that up for the final 43 games he’ll reach 59 and break Gonzo’s record! I don’t really expect that, but 55 is a very real possibility.
Assuming I'm using this thing right
The following players hit 50 home runs in a season by the age of 25: Jimmie Foxx, Babe Ruth, A-Rod, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Ralph Kiner, and Prince Fielder. Seven, in over a century.
"The conflict is representative of the Darwinian struggle between avians and mammals for dominance."
"Based on Bugs giving Daffy Duck a cigar made out of dynamite?"
Pretty Good Company
Of course, A-Rod Gets an Asterisk.
Mark Reynolds should of
Made the AllStar team.
Not Upton.
Reynolds has the bat and the fielding.
I laugh until my head comes off.
Reynolds sure does
make the top 10 and web gems more often. but hey, i guess he never runs toward the play he just stands there and the ball falls in his glove.
I laugh until my head comes off.
The Sheriff Is Hot
Check out Mark’s Hot Zone on FoxSports.com. He hits .300+ when pitched to any location except the outer third of the plate, either up (.148) or down (.250) in the zone.
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