Double or quits? What will the full-season numbers for Arizona be?
81 games in, 81 games to go. Fair to say, I think, that the 2009 Diamondbacks season has been one of the most disappointing on record, with expectation far outweighing actuality. That said, however, let's take a look at the best individual performances and some team totals - using the complex and arcane "doubling what they have now" method, see what we could be getting by the end of the year...
Mark Reynolds: 46 HR, 116 RBI, 26 SB
Very impressive numbers. The HR and RBI totals would be the best for any Diamondback since Luis Gonzalez's season in 2001; even if he doesn't get quite that far, he looks to have an excellent chance of becoming the first Arizona player since Gonzo in 2003 to drive in a hundred runs. However, if Reynolds can keep up that pace, there have been only five 45/25 seasons in baseball history.
Justin Upton: 28 HR, 90 RBI, .922 OPS
Ok, it's far too early to start discussing J-Up's Cooperstown credentials, but here's something to think about. In baseball history, only thirteen players of his age or younger have had a better OPS than he's produced this year. Three (A-Rod, Pujols, Griffey) are still active. Of the remaining ten, eight are now in the Hall of Fame and Shoeless Joe should be. [In case you're wondering, #10 is Hal Trosky]
Dan Haren: 14-10, 2.19 ERA, 226 K, 0.809 WHIP
Cy Young worthy, though a few more wins in the second-half would certainly help. That WHIP is simply insane, and would be the lowest ever in the NL if maintained for a full year, surpassing Greg Maddux's .811 in 1995 - no other NL pitcher has been below .840 over the past century. His K:BB ratio (7.53) would also be league top ten all-time. Almost as impressive, Haren has an OPS of.771 at the plate.
Team numbers
The Diamondbacks are on pace for 148 errors, leading to 72 unearned runs. The former would blow away the total from 2008 (113), though the actual impact, in terms of unearned runs, wouldn't be that much different, as we allowed 70 last season. On the other hand, we've returned to our thieving ways, on target to steal 128 bases at a 75% success-rate - at the half-way point, we're past 2008's total of 58 bases, at a 72% clip. All told, however, the offense will fall 12 runs short of last year's number, though that would require us to repeat the wretched April, when we hit .231 and scored 3.8 per game.
The biggest difference, however, is on the pitching side, where the projected total is 796 runs allowed, an increase of ninety over the 2008 number. Most of the reason for this is the difference between Brandon Webb and the Triple-Headed Beast of Replacement Suck. Brandon made 34 starts in 2008, worked 226.2 IP and allowed 95 runs; Bryan Augenstein, Yusmeiro Petit and Billy Buckner are on pace in 2009 to make thirty starts, throw only 147.1 innings and yet allow 134 runs. So that's 39 runs more, plus almost eighty fewer innings - which will now need to be pitched by the bullpen rather than our ace. This may be why we have already used 22 pitchers; two more than all last year, though that 2009 number does include Josh Wilson.
Ok, I've dug around long enough. Better get on with the Gameday Thread before the natives start to get restless. ;-)
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Those pitching numbers
are INSANE.
Makes me miss Brandon Webb even more.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Jul 5, 2009 2:43 PM EDT reply actions
The impact of Webb's loss
would be halved if our organization developed or purchased any depth deep in the rotation. That hasnt happened, and comparing any good pitcher with wannabes sporting a collective ERA north of eight, will result in a large impact. Losing Webb hurts, but it’s only insurmountable if you dont contingency plan for it.
I suspect Haren will enjoy better second half support, and not pitch as well – as is his custom. If he sustains, he’ll have a magnificent season, obviously.
the offense will fall 12 runs short of last year’s number, though that would require us to repeat the wretched April, when we hit .231 and scored 3.8 per game.
April wont recur, partly because we have better hitters now. Parra, even after settling in, is a big upgrade over Byrnes or a sick CoJack. After a miserable month under Melvin and a miserable month under Hiinch, CY is finally hitting closer to norms he established in 2007-2008 (under Melvin). In 2008, Drew established he’ll hit much better than he did in April 2009.
In addition, we’ll score more runs than last year, because Upton and Reynolds are developing into genuine impact hitters – something the Dbacks havent had since 2005.
I’m excited by all that. It’s just a shame the season had to be fucked, so that Josh Byrnes could best position his political narrative (ie organizational advocacy).
If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09
Actually it can get worse.
Either Doug Davis or Jon Garland (or possibly both) will be traded soon. That means we’ll have two (or three) “5th starters” in the rotation. The truth is, none of them belong in MLB. (You can make a pretty good case they don’t belong in the PCL either.) If you think the bullpen is bad now, imagine what it will be like after a month of Max and Dan and three days on the can.
Yes, the offense will be better. No repeat of April. But don’t count on continuing to score 5 runs a game either. Felipe Lopez will be gone soon. There goes are only legitimate leadoff man. Drew can do it, but he’s much better in the second spot. J-Up and the Sheriff are both streaky hitters. If they both go cold at the same time, where will the offense come from?
Very true on the pitching
I shudder to think what will happen then. When’s Parker ready? :-( However:
Drew, career line batting leadoff: .279/.335/.463 = .798 OPS
Drew, career line batting second: .243/.283/.404 = .686 OPS
So there doesn’t seem to be much evidence to support the claim that “he’s much better in the second spot.” True, most of that came last season when he was on fire…but there’s at least the possibility he was on fire because he batted leadoff, which caused him to be a lot more selective. Hitting first, he took a walk about every 12 PAs; in the #2 hole, it was about one per 21 PAs.
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Jul 6, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Sutton on the radio in M'waukee
made it sound as if Dbacks would have to get back someone to fill in the rotation spot in a DD trade and mentioned Manny Parra. I could see Dbacks asking that and Melvin saying no. If anything, Parra will get another spin at the big league level and still I’d be surprised if he was traded for a rental.
Do the Phils have a plug-in starter they are willing to trade? I’d be surprised if they did. Maybe DD will stay the year and sign a short extension. Sutt made it sound as if that was a possibility and acceptable.

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