Since we have this dream of competing next season with Garland and Davis, we pick up Garland’s option, re-sign Davis for two years, trade Snyder for a third or fourth starter (which he’s worth), sign a LOOGY, sign another stop-gap 2B (Akinori Iwamura sounds great to me)

Rotation:
1) Dan Haren
2) Miscast 3/4-guy Max Scherzer
3) Third/fourth starter (potentially miscast)
4) Doug Davis
5) Jon Garland
Spot/Injury fill-in – 6) Jarrod Parker – in AAA unless needed, a la what the Sox are doing with Buchholz. I’d hate to see him thrown into the majors before he’s ready and being counted on as a fifth starter, especially if we’re going to put him on an innings cap.

Bullpen:
CL) Chad Qualls
SU) Jon Rauch
MR) Clay Zavada
MR) Juan Gutierrez
MR) Blaine Boyer
MR) Daniel Schlereth
LOOGY) Free Agent/Doug Slaten
LR) Esmerling Vasquez

AAA pitchers of (potential) value – SP Billy Buckner, SP Wes Roemer, SP Bryan Augenstein, SP Yusmeiro Petit, SP Cesar Valdez, RP Leyson Septimo, RP Kyler Newby, RP Jose Marte, RP Leo Rosales, RP Bobby Korecky, RP Doug Slaten.

Lineup:
1) SS Stephen Drew
2) LF Gerardo Parra or 2B Akinori Iwamura/Adam Kennedy
3) RF Justin Upton
4) 3B Mark Reynolds
5) C Miguel Montero
6) CF Chris Young or LF Gerardo Parra
7) 1B Brandon Allen or CF Chris Young
8) 2B Rusty Ryal or 1B Brandon Allen
9) Pitcher

Obviously, all of the “or” options go together. Frankly, I’d like to see Iwamura get signed, and put in the 2-hole, where Flip Lopez probably belonged all season (although it can be argued otherwise due to his stubborn refusal to drive in runs). This would also take a bunch of pressure off of Brandon Allen, who should be our starting 1B from Opening Day onward (or at very least platooning with Conor Jackson), with him being able to slot in eighth next season.

Bench:
IF Ryan Roberts (gets occasional start at 2B, SS, and pinch-hits if Iwamura, gets 1/3 of starts at 2B if Ryal – also, gets injury-replacement starts).
OF/1B Conor Jackson (either platoon with Allen and occasional rare OF start, or solid number of OF starts – regardless, gets all DH starts).
OF Alex Romero (gets a few OF starts in place of either Parra or CY, with Parra shifting to center if CY is getting the day off).
C John Hester (backs up Montero, pinch hits).

AAA position players of (potential) value – MIF Pedro Ciriaco, OF Cole Gillespie, OF Trent Oeltjen, 2B Rusty Ryal (if Iwamura is signed), 1B Sean Couglin.

1) Drew SS
2) Jackson LF
3) Upton RF
4) Reynolds 2B
5) Montero 3B
6) Allen 1B
7) Parra CF
8) Snyder C

Bench
1) Young
2) Whitesell
3) Ryal
4) Hester
5) Byrnes

Rotation
1) Haren
2) Scherzer
3) Davis
4) Some crafty veteran FA
5) Parker

Bullpen
CL) Qualls
SU) Rauch
7th) Gutierrez
LOOGY) Zavada
LR) Petit
MR) Boyer
MR) Vasquez

The key factor is moving Reynolds to second, of course. It plugs a hole, lets us get both Montero and Snyder into the line-up and means we don’t need to spend any money on a free agent, so can use that to bolster the rotation instead, re-sign Davis, etc.

I look at that roster and feel pretty good about it, actually, even without Webb. I’d rather Byrnes was not part of it, but the chances of convincing anyone else to take him seem slim.

(what I want, not what I think is going to happen)
not much original here… more a combination of some of the previous suggestions:

1) Drew SS
2) Jackson LF
3) Upton RF
4) Reynolds 3B
5) Montero C
6) Allen 1B
7) Parra CF
8) Ryal 2B

Bench
1) Young
2) Romero
3) Roberts
4) Hester
5) Byrnes

Rotation
1) Haren
2) Scherzer
3) Davis
4) Garland
5) Parker

Bullpen
CL) Qualls
SU) Rauch
7th) Gutierrez
LOOGY) Zavada
LR) Petit
MR) Boyer
MR) Vasquez

In the offseason, then, I’d like to see us: 1) re-sign Davis; 2) pull trigger on Garland option; 3) trade Snyder. If by some miracle the prognosis for Webb looks favorable then obviously you do that as well and Parker gets to come up with the first injury.

2010 2B Free Agents:
Ronnie Belliard (35)
Jamey Carroll (36)
Alex Cora (34)
Craig Counsell (39)
Mark DeRosa (35)
David Eckstein (35)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
Orlando Hudson (32)
Akinori Iwamura (31) – $4.25MM club option with a $250K buyout
Adam Kennedy (34)
Felipe Lopez (30)
Mark Loretta (38)
Pablo Ozuna (35)
Placido Polanco (34)
Freddy Sanchez (32) – $8MM club option with a $600K buyout; vests with 600 PAs
Juan Uribe (31)

3B FA’s:
Third basemen
Rich Aurilia (38)
Adrian Beltre (31)
Geoff Blum (37)
Aaron Boone (37)
Craig Counsell (39)
Joe Crede (32)
Pedro Feliz (35) – $5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Chone Figgins (32)
Nomar Garciaparra (36)
Troy Glaus (33)
Mike Lamb (34)
Melvin Mora (38) – $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Pablo Ozuna (35)
Robb Quinlan (33)
Juan Uribe (31)

Likely lineup:
1. Drew SS
2. Jackson 1B
3. Upton RF
4. Reynolds 3B
5. Montero C
6. Parra CF
7. Free Agent 2B
8. Byrnes LF

In the likely lineup, I have the team trading Snyder this offseason. Hopefully Jackson can return to form since he contracted the plague. i also have them adding another 2B. I’m not sure who will be available. Also, I think Byrnes will have to play. he’s getting paid way too much to be a bench player and the team is not going to just drop him. Hopefully he can turn it around next year. Most noteably, I have Young on the bench next year. He plays great defense but his bat is non-existent and he has no plate discipline.

Wishful lineup:
1. Drew SS
2. Jackson LF
3. Upton RF
4. Reynolods 2B
5. Montero 3B
6. Young CF
7. Snyder C
8. Allen 1B

On my wishful lineup I have the team keeping Snyder C and moving Monterro to 3B. That would move Reynolds to 2B (which he was drafted as a middle infielder) and bringing up Allen to play 1B. On the bench I have Parra and Byrnes this time. Of course this is a wishful lineup so young would be a productive player.

Most noteable omissions from the 2010 lineup:
Tracy—I think the team will do the right thing and buy him out for $1mil instead of agreeing to the team option for $7mil.
Whitesell—he has not shown me anything that would want me to keep him on the team. He has decent plate discipline, but he has not produced anything with the playing time.

Rotation:
1. Webb
2. Haren
3. Scherzer
4. Garland
5. Parker/FA

I think the team will keep Webb’s option for next year barring any news we have not found out about his arm. i also think this will be Davis’ last season here. he will go elsewhere. I also think the team will add another pitcher only if they switch the positions around without adding a 2B. This would allow more money to be spent on pitching. It would also keep Parker down one more season to mature.

Bullpen:
CL—Qualls
Setup—Rauch
7th—Gutierrez
MR—Zavada
MR—Boyer
MR—Vasquez
LR—Petit/Buckner

This is what I’ve got…

Lineup:
1. SS Stephen Drew
2. LF Gerardo Parra or Conor Jackson
3. RF Justin Upton
4. 3B Mark Reynolds
5. C Miguel Montero
6. 1B Brandon Allen or Conor Jackson
7. CF Chris Young
8. 2B a. Rusty Ryal
          b. Free Agent (Ideally Mark DeRosa)
          c. 2B acquired via Chris Snyder trade

Bench:
- OF/1B Jackson/ Parra/ Allen (Varies per above lineup)
- C John Hester or, if not traded, Chris Snyder
- INF Ryan Roberts
- OF Eric Byrnes
- INF Mark DeRosa/ Rusty Ryal

The lineup takes a bit of a shuffle compared to some of the others posted earlier. I’ve conceded batting Allen before Montero and placed him sixth instead. I’d also keep Young in CF while platooning Parra and Jackson in LF. Second base is, undoubtedly, one of the biggest question marks for 2010. I’m going to stick with Ryal making the opening day squad while swapping starts with a “crafty veteran.” I took a shot in the dark and guessed that DeRosa will end up being the guy. I’m also going with a few other fellows here and guessing that Byrnes will remain a D-Back.

Rotation:
1) Dan Haren
2) Max Scherzer
3) Doug Davis
4) Free Agent (Options listed below)
5) Jarrod Parker or Bryan Augenstein

I would really prefer to have Parker start the year in AAA but I can picture him being pushed up to fill the back of the rotation for ‘10. If not, I wouldn’t mind seeing Augenstein take the spot. As for the number four starter, I don’t see the Diamondbacks paying Garland $10 million. Potential free agents to fill his spot:

a. Tim Wakefield (unlikely)
b. Rich Harden (unlikely)
c. Chris Capuano (meh)
d. Mark Hendrickson (meh)
e. Josh Fogg (meh)

Bullpen:
CL) Chad Qualls
SU) Jon Rauch
JAT*) Clay Zavada
MR) Juan Gutierrez
MR) Esmerling Vasquez
MR) Daniel Schlereth or Leo Rosales
LR) Yusmeiro Petit

* Jack of All Trades

Along with Parker, Schlereth is borderline to be on the opening day roster. Unless he does some serious business in the spring and/or winter competition I don’t expect to see him come April. Zavada is the (mustachioed) man of the bullpen. Consider him your seventh inning guy, your LOOGY, and your aforementioned Uber-Loogy.

At the prices for quality pitchers on today’s market, I think he’s back next year. I don’t see the club as changing much to next year tbh, because when your starting LF, 1B and #1 in the rotation go down in month number 1, it means that the season is pretty much shot. You add to it that CY had an epic down year and that’s all she wrote.

Next year Jackson is back and he’s supplanting either Whitesell at 1B (most likely) or Byrnes in LF (less likely). I think Eric has lost his job to Parra barring a spring miracle. CY’s job is up for grabs and will see a healthy competition from guys in the system and others looking to hang on or catch on. 2B is up for grabs, Ryal should have a shot, but so will Roberts, depending upon his play ffor the rest of the year. Someone new wouldn’t be out of the question either.

I see the competition being hard for the 1B spot between Jackson, Allen and Whitsell, maybe Allen wins it and CoJack goes to LF. This may mean that Parra and CY battle for the CF position. 2B is open audition time.

The Rotation will stay the same with Webb coming back (all reports indicate that he should be ready around TC time) and the bullpen having an open competition for who handles the long relief gig. I think Rauch and Qualls and perhaps Guitierrez are the only guys who have any kind of slack next year.

1b. Allen.
2b. Reynolds or free agent or trade Snyder for someone.
SS. Drew.
3b. Reynolds or free agent or trade Snyder for someone.
LF. Jackson.
CF. Parra.
RF. Upton.
C. Montero.

Rotation, not in any particular order.
Haren
Scherzer
Davis
Webb, with Miley or Augenstein waiting to replace him if he goes down again.
Free Agent or trade Snyder for someone.

Nick Piecoro posted this on his latest blog post:

The 2010 payroll post

Last month, Diamondbacks Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick said the team’s payroll will not be going down next season. This year’s payroll will end up being about $73 million.

With that in mind — and with several question marks for 2010 — let’s look at how the payroll projects for next year, position by position.

Catcher

Chris Snyder: $4.75 million

Miguel Montero: $1.5 million*

First base

Brandon Allen: $400,000

Second base

Shortstop

Stephen Drew: $4 million*

Third base

Mark Reynolds: $525,000

Outfield

Conor Jackson: $3.05 million*

Gerardo Parra: $410,000

Justin Upton: $450,000

Bench

Chris Young: $3.25 million

Eric Byrnes: $11.67 million

Ryan Roberts: $410,000

Starting pitchers

1 Dan Haren: $8.25 million

2 Max Scherzer: $1.475 million

3

4

5 Homegrown pitcher: $420,000

6 Jarrod Parker: $400,000

Relievers

Chad Qualls: $4.5 million*

Jon Rauch: $2.9 million

Juan Gutierrez: $410,000

Esmerling Vasquez: $408,000

Clay Zavada: $408,000

Buyouts

Brandon Webb: $2 million

Chad Tracy: $1 million

Jon Garland: $2.5 million

Total: $53.5 million

Under contract: Snyder, Young, Byrnes, Haren, Rauch.

• - denotes guesses on what they will earn in arbitration

Also: The guys with 0-3 years of experience have their salaries determined by the club, which uses a formula to determine what they get paid. The numbers listed above for those players also are just guesses.

We’re leaving second base open, assuming the club decides it wants to pursue a full-time option either via trade or free agency. Another possibility is to find a platoon partner for Roberts, who hits left-handed pitching well.

They’ll need another bench player, whether it be bringing back Augie Ojeda or finding a similar player.

We’re leaving two spots open in the starting rotation and listing "Homegrown pitcher" for the fifth spot, assuming they can do next year what they’ve done this year, plugging in whoever is throwing best from their minor leagues. Possible candidates: Billy Buckner, Yusmeiro Petit, Cesar Valdez, Bryan Augenstein, Barry Enright, Hector Ambriz and Daniel Cabrera (?).

The Webb situation, of course, is the most interesting. When healthy, the guy has finished in the top two in Cy Young voting each of the past three seasons. But how confident will the Diamondbacks be that he’ll be able to return to form next year?

If they decide they don’t want to pick up his $8.5 million option for 2010, will they try to renegotiate and give him an incentive-laden deal a la John Smoltz or Mark Mulder? (That’s what we’re guessing the club tries to do.)

For now, we’re listing the $2 million buyout because that’s the minimum they will spend. We’re listing $2.5 million for Jon Garland’s buyout, although it could be $1 million, depending on who wants what. And it’s also possible he comes back for 2010 at $10 million, but we doubt that.

As for Parker, even if he’s healthy next year, we understand the club wants to bring him along conservatively, sort of how the Braves did with Tommy Hanson, who was promoted to the big leagues in early June. So that’s why we’re calling Parker the No. 6.

In the bullpen, there are two open slots, but we wouldn’t be surprised if left-hander Daniel Schlereth pitches his way into one of those spots in the final two months of this season.

So the way we see it, the club will need to go out and get a second baseman, a utility infielder, two starting pitchers and, most likely, at least one bullpen arm. If the payroll is going to be in the $70 million-$75 million range, they’re going to have a little bit to play with.

(Keep in mind, we’re leaving off the rest of the 40-man roster, which factors into the club’s payroll. Those extra 15 guys typically cost another $2 million or so.)

They might have even more if they trade catcher Chris Snyder, which it sounds like they might try to do now that Miguel Montero has emerged as an everyday option.

But if Mark Reynolds qualifies for arbitration as a Super 2 player, his salary would go from the $500,000 range into the $4 million to $5 million range, most likely.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009 at 03:23 PM
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Topics: SPORTS, baseball, Diamondbacks