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Montero vs. Snyder - decision time looms

With Chris Snyder now rehabbing at Triple-A, it won't be long before he returns to the big-leagues, setting up an difficult decision for management - albeit one that they probably are happy to have. Snyder has been the #1 catcher for the Diamondbacks since 2007, but Miguel Montero has been a revelation since taking over in that role, after Snyder went on the DL with a back problem in the middle of June. Since taking over, Montero has been the hottest hitter on the team, and the most productive catcher in the major-leagues, with a line of .352/.373/.598, for an OPS of .971.

What will the team do when Snyder and Montero are both healthy and available? Details after the jump...

Star-divide

At the moment, it seems the Diamondbacks dodged - or avoided, I'm unsure which - a bullet by not trading Montero to the Red Sox in the off-season, as was seriously discussed at the time. While the reasons why  negotiations broke down are uncertain, it seems likely Arizona had a higher view of Montero's value than Boston, and the gap proved unbridgeable. If that was the case, score one for us. Know how many NL catchers with 200 PAs have a better OPS+ than Montero? That'd be one: the Braves' Brian McCann. [Full list] Miggy's 116 is miles ahead of such touted players as Russell Martin (84), Geovany Soto (89) - and even the man whom the Red Sox preferred, at a cost of $5m, Jason Varitek (100).

The case for Snyder

  1. Long-term consistency. Since Montero reached the majors in 2006, Snyder has an OPS+ of 97, five points better than Montero's 92. Sure, Montero has had a great month, but two words for you there: Ryan Roberts. Montero's BABIP in the past 28 days is an unsustainable .400.
  2. Plate discipline. While Montero has hit for both average and power slightly better than Snyder in the past four seasons, this has historically been outweighed by Snyder's much better eye. He walks about once every eight PA's; compared to Montero's 11.6. This has continued in 2009: while Montero's BA is much better than Snyder's .224, their OBP is almost identical. .357 for Montero, .354 for Snyder.
  3. Superior defense. While difficult to measure for catchers (there's no UZR available), all the career numbers suggest Snyder is the better man with the glove:
       Caught stealing: 33% vs. 23% [2009 League average: 28%]
       Fielding percentage: .999 vs .986 [Avg: .993]
       Range factor/9: 7.80 vs. 7.53 [Avg: 7.55]

The case for Montero

  1. He'a a left-handed bat. This is perhaps less an issue now than it was, with the arrival of Gerardo Parra and Josh Whitesell to semi-permanent roster spots. However, Eric Byrnes will be back, and that'll likely reduce Parra's playing time. Another LHB is always welcome.
  2. The face of the future? We pretty much know what Snyder can do. Montero never had 50 PAs in a month before May this year. He had 81 in June, and will almost certainly get more in July, despite the break. Without a pennant race, it's a great chance to evaluate him and see whether he can be a #1 in 2010.
  3. Practice makes perfect. The main knock on him has been defense: regular playing-time in game situations is probably the only way that will get better. There already seems to have been an improvement, particularly in his throwing - his CS% is up five points on last season to 26%, almost league average.

As you can tell, there are arguments in favor of both players, and I think this is likely to be reflected in what happens when Snyder returns, probably at the end of the week. Hinch will attempt to get both players into the line-up as much as possible. Snyder will likely start whenever we face a left-hander, though Montero has handled them pretty well in his career - while we're only talking about a hundred PA's, he actually has a higher BA, though with much less power [only two career HR].

My instinct is that we won't see either player traded before the deadline. Snyder's injury and Montero's hot streak make it difficult to deal them, and I think we will see the rest of the season as an evaluation period, see whether Montero is "for real". While it'd be nice to retain both men, I suspect we will see one or the other dealt during the off-season, as having a great back-up catcher is a luxury rather than a necessity. There are more obvious holes which need to be filled - in particular, second-base and probably starting pitching - and either man would be a useful chip in these areas. See IHateSouthBend's excellent review of Snyder's trade potential, as much of what is said will likely still apply off-season.

One idea which we may get resurrected is the concept of shifting Montero to third-base. This is an area into which the team dipped its toe last winter, with Miguel playing some at the position in the Venezuelan Winter League. With the departure of Felipe Lopez, second-base is once again a question-mark for 2010, so I wonder if we might see Mark Reynolds shifting there, with Montero replacing him at third and Snyder remaining the everyday catcher? If so, it's something I think should be started sooner than later - this season is basically a dead year, and I'd rather see everyone concerned use the remaining 65 games to get accustomed to their new positions.

If one or other does get traded, however, the question would still need to be addressed of a back-up catcher, which is likely more important than a sub at any other position, as they'll see more action. Since 2001, here's the median number of games played by a front-line player:
    C: 119
   1B: 144
   2B: 136
   SS: 145
   3B:
142
   LF: 137
   CF: 140
   RF: 142
That includes pinch-hit appearances, so odds are, your back-up catcher will start 50 or more games, about twice as many as at most other spots. I don't know about you, but I don't feel confident in that being Luke Carlin, a 28-year old with a career .153 batting-average in the big-leagues and .693 OPS in the minors. I'm thinking John Hester might be a better shot - he's hitting .324 for the Reno Aces, and has an OPS over .900. Aged 25, he might be the man for the job in 2010.

[All stats through Saturday night]

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great write up, jim. it’s an interesting dillemna. one thing i’d like to see them do if the players are again platooned (as i expect) is to give both (esp miggy right now) more ph appearances. what good does it do to have an emergency catcher on the team (roberts) if we don’t use him in order to maximize our offensive output?

"Say this much for big league baseball - it is beyond question the greatest conversation piece ever invented in America."
-- Bruce Catton

by njjohn on Jul 26, 2009 10:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Lately

Montero

But to me, Snyder throws better to 2nd on a stolen base attempt.

If I see one more Eric Byrnes 'flip throw' I will shoot myself a whole bunch of times.

by edbigghead on Jul 26, 2009 10:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Thin they might

go with a “hot hand” approach, letting Montero keep the starting position as long as he maintains the excellent batting? For much of the season, our offense has been so painfully bad. It’d be a shame (and a bad example) to bench a player while he’s doing so well.

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Jul 26, 2009 10:18 PM EDT reply actions  

I just can't fathom dealing Montero at the moment.

Selling high is one thing, but selling high on a guy whose potential says he is supposed to be high is another. Hester can be a backup next season, those offensive numbers are good. Keep Snyder until the winter if a good offer doesn’t show up, then ship him off to replenish the system.

Someone pay Eric Byrnes $500,000 to be extreme and base jump into the Grand Canyon. Then screw with his equipment. Please.

by IHateSouthBend on Jul 27, 2009 12:18 AM EDT reply actions  

Gotta

play the hot hand for now. We’ve seen what Snyder can do, we know what he looks like. Let’s give Montero a chance to show he can handle it for more than a month. If he’s still raking then we know who should start, and if he falls back to earth, well, we still have Snyder.

I was so lucky getting mono. That was like the best diet ever.

by soco on Jul 27, 2009 12:35 AM EDT reply actions  

Word

Test the waters and see what happens.

Wear your own fur.

by Sprankton on Jul 27, 2009 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

+1

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Jul 27, 2009 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hey.
Eric Byrnes will be back

Don’t you threaten me like that.

Good write-up. I’m not so quick to deal Snydes at this point, no matter how good Miggy has been the past month.

by Azreous on Jul 27, 2009 1:07 AM EDT reply actions  

I like the idea

of trying Monterro at third with Reynolds moving to 2nd. Reynolds was drafted as a SS so 2nd should not be too hard to pick up. Plus he’s got the range for the position and it might cut down on his throwing errors. Unless he becomes Steve Sax. That would keep Miggy’s left-handed bat in the lineup while utilizing Snyder’s better defense behind the plate. It would also allow the team to have 3 serviceable catchers on the team if the club decides to bring up another kid to back up Snyder. I say do the experiment now while the season is over. Get them ready for what the lineup will look like next year.

Badgers! Badgers! We don't need no stinkin badgers!

by haas on Jul 27, 2009 1:35 AM EDT reply actions  

Reynolds was drafted as a 2B, I believe.

So it still works I guess. I don’t trust the accuracy or the range there though as much as I trust the arm strength and the reflexes at the hot corner.

Someone pay Eric Byrnes $500,000 to be extreme and base jump into the Grand Canyon. Then screw with his equipment. Please.

by IHateSouthBend on Jul 27, 2009 3:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

As a side note

I’m not sure if you guys checked out the young kid from the Pirates, who plays RF. I think the Dbacks should propose a trade with the Pirates, since they like to get rid of all their young talent. That kid is named Garret Jones. He looks out of position in the outfield. He would make a solid 1B and also add another left-handed bat. Dude has been raking since he was called up.

Badgers! Badgers! We don't need no stinkin badgers!

by haas on Jul 27, 2009 1:38 AM EDT reply actions  

Too expensive.

Maybe next year, though.

"In the future, I want to be a fossil. Or, at least have my feces be fossilized"
-Pygalgia

by DbacksSkins on Jul 27, 2009 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

He's not a young kid.

He’s a 28-year-old rookie and career minor-leaguer playing way over his head in a brief stint in the majors. If the Pirates are smart, they’ll deal him to a contender for some value, but a non-contender has no business getting him, just like the Royals had no business getting Yuniesky Betancourt. But it’s the Pirates, so they’ll probably try to make him the face of their franchise.

Someone pay Eric Byrnes $500,000 to be extreme and base jump into the Grand Canyon. Then screw with his equipment. Please.

by IHateSouthBend on Jul 27, 2009 3:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Further,

We have a left-handed bat 1B in AAA, Brandon Allen, who we got in the Pena trade, who is significantly younger and long-term will likely be better.

Someone pay Eric Byrnes $500,000 to be extreme and base jump into the Grand Canyon. Then screw with his equipment. Please.

by IHateSouthBend on Jul 27, 2009 3:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think 'defensive catcher' as a term misses a few things.

While pick-offs and CS are important there are a few parts of the concept that get left out. Defensive agility: when the pitcher goes off-target, how well can you slide/move to the side and pick off or knock down the ball rather then remain locked in place and have to deal with a passed ball (easy run or base advance).
Positional awareness: staying aware of the state of the game so that when the choice of a throw to home is there, you are close to the base so that a throw to where you are is to where you need to be to be able to be effective. When the runner is about to turn third and the catcher is halfway to two thirds of the way to the base and not the plate, I don’t care where the fielder finally decides to throw (plate or catcher), it will be useless.

by nargel on Jul 27, 2009 5:12 AM EDT reply actions  

Exactly

There’s a lot more the defensive side of the game, that doesn’t show up in any available stats (which is why I called it ‘difficult to measure’). Generally, I tend to think Snyder is better in this area than Montero, but that may just be a reflection of his greater experience.

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Jul 27, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe it's just me watching Snyder more closely

or, until recently, more often but my take was that Snyder was significantly worse in those areas and every time he adjusted his mechanics to improve them it would last 1 game or less.

by nargel on Jul 28, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

montero

plays most, starting now. keep snyderman as the (overpaid? $3mil?) backup. too bad you can’t combine their respective skills into one dream player, but if you could, every team would create a frankenstein all-star for themselves….

i’ve not been a montero fan at all, but have to admit he’s shown me lately. i think he will never compare to snyder as a defender at the most important defensive position. the expectations would be completely different. the best we can hope for is that he winds up better than michael barrett or later day mike piazza.

the name of the team is The DIAMONDBACKS

by marionette on Jul 27, 2009 4:44 PM EDT reply actions  

His D is improving

And the pitchers throw just as well when he’s behind the plate as when Snyder is. I think Jim may have compared those numbers, but I recall it being closer than expected.

Someone pay Eric Byrnes $500,000 to be extreme and base jump into the Grand Canyon. Then screw with his equipment. Please.

by IHateSouthBend on Jul 27, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

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