The June Swoon: Reviewing the Diamondbacks Month

by Jim McLennan on Jul 2, 2009 12:30 AM EDT in News Comment 29 comments

Upton celebrates his first career grand slam. Here's to many more.

Team Record: 9-17
Runs Scored: 124 - Runs Allowed: 128
Series Record: 1-6-1

Is it just me, or did the past month feel an awful lot worse than that? Ok, it was still the fewest games won by the Diamondbacks since June 2006, when we went 8-20 (boy, we really don't like June!). But I was surprised to see we scored almost as many runs as we conceded. Just for comparison, in 2006, our differential was -72, rather than the -4 posted last month - the closest we've come to parity all season. The main reason the record doesn't reflect this, is that the Diamondbacks were 2-6 in one-run games in June, but were 4-0 in games decided by seven runs or more.

But after the jump, we'll go into more details, about a June we'd probably rather forget, and list the nominees for AZ Player of the Month

You wouldn't know it from a pretty miserable won-lost record, but the Diamondbacks' team performance over the past month was actually the best it has been all season, with the offense producing the highest OPS and the pitchers delivering the lowest ERA for a month in 2009. Here's a comparison of the numbers from April and June in a variety of categories. I've also put the overall league average this season as the third column, for comparison (though these numbers are not park-adjusted, etc.).

	April (9-13)	June (9-17)	NL Av
Hitting
BA	.231	.254	.257
OBP	.308	.332	.330
SLG	.394	.406	.405
OPS	.703	.739	.736
R/game	3.82	4.77	4.45
Pitching
Opp BA	.258	.255	.258
Opp OBP	.324	.326	.333
Opp SLG	.421	.395	.412
Opp OPS	.745	.721	.744
ERA	4.52	4.11	4.25

That makes for interesting reading - especially for Hinch's critics, because it seems that both the pitching and hitting of the team have improved, comparing his first full month in charge to Melvin's last. Some of that may just be random chance, but not all of it - while BABIP for the hitters increased significantly from April to June, the number for the pitchers was basically identical. What helped on the mound was the team's ability to keep the ball in the park: in April, they allowed one home-run per 31.8 at-bats; in June, it was one every 43.4 AB. However, countering that, in June the defense surrendered nineteen unearned runs, almost four times as many April's five.

Before we get to the five candidates for Diamondbacks' Player of the Month, I want to give out a couple of awards for the "Most Improved" Hitter and Pitcher of June. The former goes to Chris Young, who improved his OPS from .420 to .910. Of particular note, he led the team in walks, trotting to first in June more often than he struck out - that's especially impressive since in May, his K:BB ratio was 23:2. He was also 7-0 stealing bases. On the mound, it goes to Jon Rauch, who had an ERA of 2.08, allowing seven hits and three walks in thirteen innings. Given his ERA was 9.00 when he took the mound on May 8th, the Blowfish has turned it around nicely, and been scored on in just two of his last sixteen appearances.

And with that, on to the five men who most impressed the academy [ok - that'd be me] in the month of June. They are in order of alphabetical importance:

Dan Haren. Six starts, each seven innings or more, two runs or less. Overall ERA for the month:1.64. 44 innings pitched, allowed only six walks while striking out 42 batters and holding opposing hitters to an average of .151. Oh, and hit .462 (6-for-13) too.
Mark Reynolds. Had a line for the month of .286/.372/.592, giving him a team-leading OPS of .964. Also led the D-backs in June for homers (8), runs (19) and RBI (26). And K's too, naturally, though his K:BB ratio was still better than Lopez and Parra.
Max Scherzer. What's most impressive about Max's 2.17 ERA, is that it was done on the back of a .302 BABIP, so can't be considered a 'lucky' ERA. He didn't allow a single long-ball in June, a great improvement on May's figure of seven.
Justin Upton. Hit over .300, though a BABIP regression inevitably led to a drop from May's .373. Got his K:BB ratio for a month down below 2:1 for only the second time in his career. Reached base safely in 23 of 25 June games, and had his first grand-slam.
Clay Zavada. Just surpassed Doug Slaten for 4th-longest streak of scoreless games to open a career. (19) Can't argue with a zero ERA, though eight walks in 12.1 IP is high. Doing better with inherited runners, only three of nine scored in June, compared to 5/6 in May.

Poll

Who was the Diamondbacks' Player of the Month for June?

Dan Haren

115 votes

Mark Reynolds

36 votes

Max Scherzer

5 votes

Justin Upton

15 votes

Clay Zavada

19 votes

190 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

The best Diamondbac

for June?

I’m going for Haren, but Zavada has been a very welcome salve for the rash that is the Diamondbac’s bullpen.

Funny, Brown doesn't offer a degree in slut!

by soco on Jul 2, 2009 12:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I went with Haren but my runner up isn’t even an option on the list. My runner up is CY as he had a very good June for how his year has been.

For the month of June CY had 17 walks compared to just 2 in May and 6 in April.
He also had 7 stolen bases compared to just 2 in May and April.
If it wasn’t for him getting hurt in the KC series I think he might have had an even better June.

by Pyromnc on Jul 2, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

At this point...

Do we enter the Bryce Harper Sweepstakes, save face, or make a miraculous run?

by Wailord on Jul 2, 2009 1:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well, I think you'll have your answer by the trade deadline.

If we trade several of our players we could definitely make a run for Harper but if we don’t then it’s one of the other two options that you gave. I’m guessing the D’Backs management will try to save face and hope that we go on a miraculous run.

by Pyromnc on Jul 2, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm so bummed,

The reality that the D-backs will likely end the year as one of the worst teams in the league is setting in.

I feel bad for Haren. On a halfway decent team, he’d be a sure fire Cy Young candidate. As it is now, he’ll probably get snubbed. (then again, if he keeps ups his hitting, we’ll see some MVP votes)

by G.O.B. on Jul 2, 2009 2:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Listened to Buster Olney on ESPN and....

He talked about how Haren has looked like the best pitcher in baseball. He mentioned the fact that he might not start the all-star game because of his wins, or lack there of, which isn’t his fault that either the offense or bullpen screws him over. Looking at his gamelog for the year he could easily have between 13-15 wins as out of his 16 starts he has only allowed more than 3 runs in a game once and only more than 2 runs 3 times. Haren definitely deserves much better than he is getting.

by Pyromnc on Jul 2, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Again, out of place

But Haren dealt in MLB 2k9 for the 360, too. 10-4 final.
Bam

by Wailord on Jul 2, 2009 2:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Highly accurate

I particularly note the three unearned runs…. :-(

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Jul 2, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a clue

the Diamondbacks’ offense is actually a Terminator from the future!

I was so lucky getting mono. That was like the best diet ever.

by soco on Jul 2, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rausch

No questions asked and if anyone disagrees well I feel sorry for you.

lmao jk

If I see one more Eric Byrnes 'flip throw' I will shoot myself a whole bunch of times.

by edbigghead on Jul 2, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

W/L

…vs 10 worst MLB Teams (Hinch 16-19)…..(Melvin 1-1)
…vs 20 best MLB teams (Hinch 3-12)….(Melvin 11-16)

Dwarfed by the fact Melvin had a better record than Hinch against both good and bad opponents is the stunning disparity in schedule strength. Bob managed a grand total of two games against MLB’s weaklings (he split a pair at Petco, facing Peavy and Young). Hinch has managed thirty five games against this bottom ten. Thirty-five to two!

27 of Melvin’s 29 games were against the better teams- only 15 of AJ’s fifty.

If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09

by Diamondhacks on Jul 3, 2009 2:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I miscategorized FLA

…so AJ’s numbers are as follows:

vs the bottom 10 (13-18)
vs the Top 20 (6-13)

…so 31 to 2, instead of 35 to 2, in terms of beating up on the weakest teams

If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09

by Diamondhacks on Jul 3, 2009 2:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For the Nth time

No-one but you seems to actually care about RPI as a measure of strength.

Thank you.

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Jul 3, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Translation

I run this blog and will reflexively dismiss any objective context at odds with my painstakingly rosy assessment of AJ Hinch’s ‘performance’ :-)

I’m sorry RPI hurts your feelings, Jim, but it’s taken more seriously than anything you’ve written here. Here’s today’s NL Heat Index, from Bill Jame Online…perhaps you’ve heard of him ;-)

Colorado Rockies 93°
Florida Marlins 93°
Houston Astros 91°
Atlanta Braves 81°
Cincinnati Reds 78°
Los Angeles Dodgers 77°
San Francisco Giants 76°
Chicago Cubs 73°
St Louis Cardinals 69°
Milwaukee Brewers 64°
New York Mets 62°
Pittsburgh Pirates 59°
San Diego Padres 53°
Philadelphia Phillies 43°
Washington Nationals 41°
Arizona Diamondbacks 37

Bill James aside, every Diamondback fan from 7 to 70 knows we played our most miserable ball in June. Every fan but one ;-)

If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09

by Diamondhacks on Jul 3, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure what this heat index means or how it came about, but I like it!

I’m with Diamondhacks and say you should go with this one as the final arbiter of all things, Jim.

by Rox Girl on Jul 3, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Would you be interested

in swapping an obviously over the hill Jim Tracy for Chad Tracy?

Jim tells me he’s in his prime.

If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09

by Diamondhacks on Jul 3, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We'll even throw in 'Hacks

Since he’s such a big Rockies fan. :-)

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Jul 3, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"it’s taken more seriously than anything you’ve written here"

O RLY? Google ‘baseball RPI’ and see how far down you have to go before you find anything to do with that stat in the major-leagues, except for ESPN’s chart? You might want to get a drink first. And a snack. And perhaps a pillow. If “it gets mentioned by ESPN” is your measure of “seriously,” then this is very amusing, even by your usual standards.

You’re like a kid who has found a hammer – to you, everything involving Hinch now looks like a nail. But it’s funny how earlier you were citing record in one-run games as important, and now, when it’s basically the main reason for June’s W-L record, you ignore it completely. Odd that… Oh, and the link your provided is utterly useless, since it goes to a pay site.

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Jul 3, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If "it gets mentioned by ESPN" is your measure of "seriously," then this is very amusing, even by your usual standards.

Nice try. I never said RPI was the be all and end all of anything, merely that it (or James’ Heat Index) has more credibility than your superficial “analysis” of other valid measures.RPI and Heat Index have limitations, like anything else, but I’m not the one coloring every bit of data with a radically subjective agenda.

You’ve put Hinch’s critics on notice, contriving the painful fiction that June was our team’s best month. For someone whose signature is “Win, or die”, your personal valuation of ‘team performance’ is curiously and suddenly estranged from actually winning and losing games. Or defense. Or strength of opposition. Gee, I wonder why?

As bad as April and May were (and they were), any six year old knows that June is when our season hit rock bottom, when an unpromising but salvageable season went straight down the loo in every competitive way imaginable. When our fans turned away in disgust, and effectively booed the organization out of town. Since you cant take my word for it, I invite you to consult any other human being (not employed by the org) who has actually watched this team play :-)

If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09

by Diamondhacks on Jul 3, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You'll find

Pythagorean Record – which projected a 13-13 record for Arizona in June – trusted and used a good deal more widely than your RPI. But if you want to continue believing otherwise, feel free.

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Jul 4, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pythag is more widely used

and it’s also misunderstood and misused – as you’re doing here, to contrive the fiction the Dbacks played their best ball in June. I dont take issue with a forward looking prediction, along the lines of "if the boys continue to score nearly as many runs as they yield, then over time, we’ll expect them to gravitate closer to .500.

But that’s not what you said.

You’re taking a relatively small RS/RA sample as a meaningful measure of how the team played (past tense). Often, that’s a pretty good measure, even for a month, but there are exceptions. Our June was one of those exceptions, when homogenous RS/RA bore little resemblance to how we actually played nine inning baseball games.

If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09

by Diamondhacks on Jul 5, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not embarrassed

to say: what is RPI?

I was so lucky getting mono. That was like the best diet ever.

by soco on Jul 3, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But... But...

But everyone knows about RPI! It’s like baseball gospel, the absolute truth! ’Hacks said so, therefore it must be true…

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Jul 3, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I’m not trying to make fun here. I honestly don’t know what it is, so I don’t know what I’m supposed to think here.

I was so lucky getting mono. That was like the best diet ever.

by soco on Jul 3, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Relative Power Index

Supposed to explain the difficulty of playing your opponents, like college football’s strength of schedule. ESPN’s ranking and there’s an explanation of the formula at the bottom.

"Scott, if your life had a face, I would punch it. I would punch your life in the face."

by kishi on Jul 3, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's

the real formula?

I was so lucky getting mono. That was like the best diet ever.

by soco on Jul 3, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure

Wikipedia has this, but it’s about college basketball. (Short version: Same formula, but the home winning percentage is weighted based on if it was a home or away game.)

I don’t know if ESPN uses the same for MLB.

"Scott, if your life had a face, I would punch it. I would punch your life in the face."

by kishi on Jul 3, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looking a bit more

I found this article which gives the formula as:

RPI= .25 × WP + .50 × OWP+ .25 × OOWP +bonus -penalty

And includes the note “Bonus and Penalty points are the only part of the formula that can be different for each sport, and are the only ones that are not made public.”

Which doesn’t help much.

"Scott, if your life had a face, I would punch it. I would punch your life in the face."

by kishi on Jul 3, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs