at this point in his career, Eric’s going to change anything.

If the recent extra innings bring Hinch’s RA down from 5.3 to 5.0, it’s easy enough to adjust his RS down from 5.0 to 4.8 or so. The problem is you seem more committed to arguing an agenda than in making a reasonable, even-handed adjustment. It really shouldnt be that hard :-)

Webb’s certainly a valid consideration, although not as significant to this issue as you probably think, in that Melvin’s staff sported a better ERA than AJ’s, even when Brandon was on the DL and/or pitching miserably (ie 2009). More generally, once you complicate the discussion by highlighting Webb’s 2008 contribution, integrity requires one account for the range of 2008 ‘contributions’ Hinch doesnt deal with. Like Eric Byrnes’ “hamstrung” 2008 horror show, with no legitimate (or at least no obvious) replacement in sight. Doug Davis’s cancer. Organizational reliance on mound mainstays Micah Owings (currently leading the NL in losses for Cincinnati), YPetit, Jon Rauch and that awesome sole lefty out of the pen – Doug Slaten! More than anything, the huge fact our youthful positional core was a year younger in 2008 and that its biggest potential difference maker (Justin Upton, who eventually blossomed under Melvin) wasnt developmentally ready to be a difference maker yet.

April may have been one of Melvin’s worst months – it got him fired, obviously. But it is the most appropriate comparison, since it’s basically Melvin’s use of the same tools with which Hinch has to work.

Really? Like a healthy Stephen Drew? Or El Nino Gerardo Parra, whose OPS nearly doubles that of 2008 LF Eric Byrnes – and exceeds that of your “mostly healthy” Conor Jackson (2008/09), the LFer you cite as some big honking statistical advantage for Melvin! Without apparently realizing that Conor’s April 09 was so shockingly, off the chart sickly, it rendered his entire 08/09 OPS+ under Melvin below 100. Brandon Lyon, of the 4.70 ERA? Oh yeah, gee, what a terrible loss. How could all the kids throwing 96 out of the pen possibly compete with Juan Cruz, let alone Brandon Lyon? Roaarrrrr!

Look. You can bring up Adam Dunn, and I can bring up his defense and we’ll never settle this :-) The more intriguing and significant aspects, beyond all this statistical jockeying, are the internal, organizational questions which may never go public. For example, who is (and was) calling the playing time shots? Who was responsible for Melvin bringing in Rauch all those times, or playing CY non-stop thru a mammoth slump, like he was Ken Kendrick’s freakin’ nephew? Bob or JB? Who was keeping someone like Parra down on the farm, until Melvin departed? Was Bob simply too enamored with veterans to honestly see what the kid could bring? Or was JB always calling the shots and reluctantly realized his prized core needed new players more than new leadership, and shielded that realization (ie failure to meet expectations) with a managerial change?

Remember in the presss conference, when Josh was asked about why Bob was canned? He said (among other things) this was essentially the same team that went to the NLCS in 2007, and had been underperforming since. Well, take a look at Josh’s roster contributors today – under AJ Hinch. Is this the same team that went to the NLCS? Our 2007 leaders were EB (a shell of his 2007 self) and Hudson (gone). Jackson’s incapacitated. Drew just recently came off the DL. CY hasnt hit for either manager, yet. The only 07 regulars who contribute similarly today are Snyder and Reynolds. And today’s staff resembles the NLCS staff even less. Webb is out. Livan and Johnson are long gone. Valverde, Cruz, your buddy Lyon. There’s two guys on the whole staff who are still contributing today. Doug Davis and Tony Pena. Two friggin’ guys.

Today’s roster contributors bear little resemblance to the NLCS season. I’m not saying JB cant make changes, or that this team doesnt have talent. Hell, they’re very likely better than the 2007 team in a lot of ways. But how can a leader with integrity, a really intelligent man, get up in front of the mics and fire his mgr under the guise “this is the same team that won in 2007”? I dont think you can. I dont even want to get into the pythag, which just adds a layer of dishonor to his base mendacity here.

That’s why I’m focused on Byrnes, who’s on his fourth hitting coach in less than three years. Quite apart from whether AJ is or will be a capable manager, it’s increasingly obvious JB is grasping at straws and deflecting blame for his own strategic miscalculations.